Thursday’s Best NBA Bets
Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers (4.5, 189)
It won’t be of much consolation since they currently trail the series 2-0, but the Pacers have given the NBA’s No. 1 overall seed all they can handle.
The Bulls trailed 98-88 with less than four minutes remaining in Game 1 last Friday then fell behind by two with less than six minutes left in Game 2 on Monday. And it’s no fluke, either. Chicago has now won 23 of its last 25 games, but one of the two losses in this stretch was a 115-108 setback against none other than Indiana on March 18.
“They have quality depth and not just up front but in their backcourt too,” Bulls’ head coach Tom Thibodeau told the Chicago Tribune of the Pacers. “The big thing is at the beginning of the year, they had injuries. Now they are healthy. They're a good team. Danny Granger is one of the best scorers in the league. Darren Collison is really emerging. They're deep and keep coming at you.”
Collison is the only player on Thursday’s injury report (questionable) after spraining an ankle in Monday’s loss, but he sounds like he is going to suck it up for the playoffs.
“[Even] if I'm at 60-70 percent, I'm going to play,” he told the Indianapolis Star. “This is the playoffs. I was disappointed I couldn't get in (Game 2) in the second half, but it's unfortunate it happened.”
Pick: Pacers
Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trail Blazers (-5.5, 186)
The Blazers may find themselves trailing 2-0 in the series, but they certainly put up a good fight in two contests at Dallas. Portland led by as many as six in the fourth quarter of Game 1 and was within one point during the fourth quarter of Game 2.
“This series is far from over,” Dirk Nowitzki said during an interview with TNT following Dallas’ victory on Tuesday. “(The Blazers) are very good at home, they make shots, they play tough, so we gotta be prepared for a tough game.”
Speaking of TNT, Charles Barkley had this to say about Portland: “I've always said they have the best home court in the NBA. They still have the best fans, in my opinion, in the NBA.”
The Blazers will be feeling good not only because of their competitiveness in the first two games, but also because they are returning home. They owned one of the most drastic differences in home-road record during the regular season, going 30-11 with home-court advantage while compiling an 18-23 record away from the Rose Garden.
Portland should be able to pull within one game in the series, but covering this spread is a lot to ask.
Pick: Mavericks
What Bettors Need to Know: Thursday's NBA Playoff Action
Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers (+4.5, 189)
Chicago leads series 2-0
THE STORY: It’s been the Derrick Rose show so far, and the Indiana Pacers can't seem to do anything to stop it. The MVP candidate has led the Chicago Bulls down the stretch in each of the first two games of the Eastern Conference playoffs and has shown an ability to get to the basket reminiscent of another Chicago star from years past. Still, the Pacers have come awfully close to winning and have to be confident heading back home. The Bulls will be looking to squash that confidence and take a commanding 3-0 lead in the best-of-seven set when they visit Indiana for Game 3 on Thursday.
TV: 7 p.m. ET, NBATV
ABOUT THE BULLS: Rose has been sensational so far. After leading a 16-1 charge to end Game 1, the All-Star point guard took over again in Game 2 with Chicago trailing, putting the Bulls up for good with a circus hook shot from the right side of the lane that turned into a three-point play, and then clinching it from the free throw line. He finished with 36 points, eight rebounds and six assists while Carlos Boozer added 17 points and 16 boards. Kyle Korver has been a key to each of the wins as well, hitting a 3-pointer in the final minutes of both.
ABOUT THE PACERS: Indiana was up by as many as nine points in the second quarter before point guard Darren Collison collapsed in a heap underneath the basket just before the half. He did not play the rest of the game due to a sprained ankle and is listed as day-to-day. Even with Collison out, Indiana still had plenty of chances in the fourth quarter, sitting on top as late as 5:43 remaining after Brandon Rush converted a layup and pulling within 90-88 with 23 seconds to play before falling, 96-90.
WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT: Rose is averaging 37.5 points, seven rebounds and six assists. Tyler Hansbrough kept Indiana in Game 1 with 22 points but slumped to six on 2-of-12 shooting in Game 2.
KEY STATISTIC: Rebounding. The Bulls controlled the glass, 57-33, in Game 2. Hansbrough and Josh McRoberts tied for Indiana’s team high with six boards apiece.
TRENDS:
* Bulls are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.
* Bulls are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as favorites.
* Pacers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Over is 6-0 in Pacers last 6 games as a home underdog.
LAST WORD: “It’s always good to win in this league,” Rose said after Game 2. “It’s very hard to win. But the way that we’re winning, we’re just trying to sharpen up things, especially on the defensive end, so that we can control the game more instead of us having to play crazy at the end of the game.”
Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers (+4.5, 187)
Miami leads series 2-0
THE STORY: The Miami Heat are now two steps closer to their championship dreams and look as though they have the Philadelphia 76ers completely outclassed. The Heat did what they were supposed to do as the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference, taking the first two games at home. But after competing hard in a loss in Game 1, the 76ers rolled over in Game 2. Philadelphia will be searching from some energy from its home crowd when it hosts Miami in Game 3 on Thursday.
TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT, CSP
ABOUT THE 76ERS: Philadelphia jumped out to an early lead in Game 1 and climbed within a point in the fourth quarter, giving it the confidence that it could win in Game 2. But the 76ers barely even got a chance. They managed only four field goals in the first quarter of Monday’s Game 2 and went into the half down, 49-31, with no idea how to attack the Miami defense. The Philadelphia starting five was outscored in the first half by each member of the Heat’s “Big Three.” The 76ers’ franchise has never won a playoff series (0-16) after dropping the first two games.
ABOUT THE HEAT: Miami has never lost a playoff series after winning the first two games and looked unstoppable on Monday, locking down on the defensive end and spreading it around on offense. LeBron James led the way with 29 points, seven rebounds and six assists and Chris Bosh chipped in 21 points and 11 boards in the 94-73 triumph. The lead grew to as much as 28 points in the second half before Miami took its foot off the gas. The presumptive favorites before the season started, the Heat finally looked like a team that could win the championship on Monday.
WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT: Bosh has recorded a double-double in each of the first two games for the Heat. Andre Iguodala has totaled nine points on 4-of-15 shooting through two games for the Sixers.
KEY STATISTIC: Shooting percentage. Not matter how tight the defense is, there is no excuse for the 25.6 percent that the 76ers shot from the field in the first half of Game 2. They recovered to shoot 34.2 percent for the game but dug themselves too big a hole early. The Heat shot 50 percent in the opening half.
TRENDS:
* Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Philadelphia.
* Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
* Home team is 18-8 ATS in the last 26 meetings.
* Heat are 3-11 ATS in the last 14 meetings in Philadelphia.
LAST WORD: “If they’re playing great, they’re a better team,” Philadelphia coach Doug Collins said of the Heat. “OK? If they’re playing on the top of their game, they’re a better team. I mean, they won 58, we won 41. That doesn’t mean that we aren’t going to play and compete and fight. But when they come out (Monday) and defend the way they did. … It’s going to be very difficult for us to beat them.”
Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trail Blazers (-6, 186)
Dallas leads series 2-0
THE STORY: The Dallas Mavericks relied on their oldest players again in a 101-89 victory over the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday night. The Mavericks finally seem to be rounding into the form that saw them start 42-9. Dirk Nowitzki led the way with 33 points while Peja Stojakovic added 21 off the bench. The Mavericks will look to go up 3-0 when the series shifts to the Rose Garden on Thursday night. Portland has not lost three in a row since Jan. 9-14.
TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT, KGW, KTXA
ABOUT THE MAVERICKS: Dallas is playing old-school basketball in the sense that former All-Stars are coming up big at key times. Stojakovic looked like the Peja of old, shooting 8 of 13 from the field to finish one point shy of his season high. Nowitzki was the finisher yet again, scoring Dallas' final 11 points. Nowitzki, who made 89.2 percent of his free throws during the season, is 28 of 30 from the line in two games. Jason Kidd, 38, scored 18 on 7-for-11 shooting.
ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS: Much was made of the Trail Blazers’ inequity in free throws in Game 1. Portland had no such worries Tuesday night, attempting 27 to Dallas’ 26. The problem for the Trail Blazers came from their bench. Nicolas Batum scored 10, but the Blazers only had 11 total bench points, compared to 39 for the Mavericks. LaMarcus Aldridge continues to be the steady hand for Portland and had 24 points and 10 rebounds. “Every time we had a chance, we’d turn the ball over or make a big mistake and they ended up closing out the game,” Aldridge said. Andre Miller and Gerald Wallace each scored 18 and the Blazers will need another strong effort from them Thursday.
WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT: Stojakovic tied his career high in the playoffs with five 3-pointers. He has made five 3s in the playoffs seven times. Brandon Roy, once an All-Star for Portland, played eight minutes and missed his only shot and two free throws Tuesday. He was 1 for 7 for two points in 26 minutes of Game 1.
KEY STATISTIC: Portland is just 2-15 in its last 17 road playoff games.
TRENDS:
* Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Trail Blazers are 0-4 ATS in their last four conference quarterfinals games.
* Mavericks are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six playoff games as underdogs.
LAST WORD: “We had to play two tough-minded games to beat this team twice. It’s a long series. It’s two games. We’ve done our job. We have to regroup, get on a plane and head out to Portland where it’s going to be tougher.” – Dallas coach Rick Carlisle on winning the first two games.
NBA Betting: Indiana Pacers host Chicago Bulls in Game 3
By: Michael Robinson
The Chicago Bulls may be up 2-0 against the Indiana Pacers, but it’s been a lot harder than anyone expected. The teams move the series to Conseco Fieldhouse for Game 3 on Thursday night with Indiana facing a big injury to point guard Darren Collison.
The Don Best odds screen has Chicago as 4½-point road ‘chalk’ with a total of 189 points. NBA-TV will broadcast the opening jump at 4 p.m. (PT).
The Bulls (64-20 straight-up, 49-33-2 against the spread) looked shaky in Game 1, trailing 98-88 with under four minutes left in the fourth quarter before ending on a 16-1 spurt (104-99 win). Point guard Derrick Rose had seven points in that final run and 39 for the game, showing why he’ll likely be named league MVP.
Game 2 last Monday was another nail biter. Indiana led 78-76 with just over five minutes left, but Rose scored 11 of his 36 points from there in the 96-90 victory. Power forward Carlos Boozer was the other big gun with 17 points and 16 rebounds after getting into foul trouble in the opener.
The Bulls didn’t come close to ‘covering’ the spread as 11½-point favorites each time. They were an impressive 24-15-2 ATS at home during the regular season and 25-16 ATS on the road (9-3 ATS in the last 12 away).
Game 1 went ‘over’ the 188-point total, while Game 2 went ‘under’ the 193-points. Chicago was the second-stringiest team on defense during the regular season (91.3 PPG).
Chicago’s critics point out its never won a playoff series with Rose and the Bulls also have a rookie head coach in Tom Thibodeau. It was great earning home court advantage throughout the NBA Finals, but the playoffs are an entirely different animal.
The Pacers (37-47 SU, 40-42-2 ATS) are playing a lot better than their record indicates. Their improvement began in late January when assistant Frank Vogel took over for Jim O’Brien, amassing a 20-18 SU (18-20 ATS) record heading into the postseason.
Vogel has shown confidence in his young players and it’s paid off. Tyler Hansbrough has blossomed since he took over and had 22 points in Game 1. He did struggle last game (2-of-12, six points), but he’s turning into a good second scorer behind Danny Granger (20.5 PPG).
Vogel’s coaching skills will be tested if Collison (listed as questionable) misses Thursday. He sprained his ankle in the second quarter last game after stepping on a cameraman. Second-year guard A.J. Price will start if he can’t go, with veteran T.J. Ford also getting minutes.
Price scored 13 points last game and some feel his drop-off is not that great from Collison, but it’s never good to lose a starting point guard mid-series. Price starting would also hurt bench scoring, a 43-22 Pacers advantage last game.
Indiana has to do something about the rebounding differential. It was 49-34 in the opener and 57-33 last game, with the offensive glass a big factor each time. Center Roy Hibbert needs to get his 7-foot-2, 280 pound frame in better position.
Indiana is 24-17 SU and 21-19-1 ATS at home this year. Chicago won the first meeting in mid-January in Indiana (99-86) and the Pacers took the second (115-108 OT) in March with Vogel at the helm.
Indiana is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less. The ‘over’ is 6-0 in its last six games as a home ‘dog.
The series will continue Saturday afternoon in Hoosier country. It will either be a tight 2-1 margin or the Pacers trying to avoid a sweep.
NBA Playoff Odds: Dallas Mavericks at Portland
By: Willie Bee
Dirk Nowitzki may have led Dallas in scoring each of the first two games in their playoff series with Portland, but it's a sudden burst by Jason Kidd on the offensive end of the court that has keyed the Mavericks' 2-0 lead.
The Trail Blazers will try and regroup in Game 3 as the series moves northwest to Portland's Rose Garden. TNT has Thursday's broadcast starting at 7:30 p.m. (PT).
The Las Vegas Hilton opened Portland as a six-point favorite with 186 for the total.
Dallas was laying five points in Game 1, an 89-81 Mavs victory that never got close to the 186½-point total. Nowitzki's 28 points included a perfect 13-for-13 from the foul line where Dallas held a huge 25-9 scoring advantage.
Kidd scored a season-high 24 points in the contest, only the third time in 91 games dating back to the end of the 2009-10 regular season that he reached the 20-point plateau. The bulk of his scoring came from long range with the veteran of 17 seasons making good on six of his 10 three-point attempts.
The former All-American from Cal averaged less than eight points per game during the regular season when he rarely attempted more than five shots behind the arc.
Oddsmakers cut both the spread and total for Tuesday's second game, making the Mavs 3½-point chalk and setting the total at 183½. Kidd responded with 18 points this time with Nowitzki pouring in 33 to lead Dallas to the 101-89 triumph. Nowitzki again had a big fourth quarter when the Mavericks broke open a one-point game by outscoring the Blazers 28-17.
Dallas' final 11 points came on three Nowitzki field goals and five free throws where he was 15-of-17 for the game.
Both playoff battles have followed script from the four regular season meetings. The home team, which has been favored in all six matchups, is 6-0 straight up and 5-1 against the spread. The lone ATS exception came the first time the Mavs and Blazers met this season, a 103-98 Dallas win in December as seven-point chalk.
Portland has dominated scoring in the paint, topping Dallas all six contests. The Trail Blazers have averaged nearly 46 points per game inside on the Mavericks, almost half of Portland's scoring. Over 63 percent of Dallas' points in the series have come from outside or from the line.
Keeping the Mavericks and especially Nowitzki off the line in Game 3 is crucial for the Blazers who could get an assist in that area by having home-court advantage. Nowitzki ranked seventh in the NBA during the regular season hitting over 89 percent of his charity tosses, the Dunking Deutschman just outside the top 10 averaging 5.4 PPG via free throws.
Stopping Kidd and playing better perimeter defense will be another factor if Portland is to avoid going down 3-0 in the series. If Kidd does come back down to earth, it will put extra pressure on Jason Terry and Peja Stojakovic to step up in his place if Dallas is to win in Portland for the first time in more than two years.
Stojakovic canned 5-of-10 from three-point range in Game 2 on his way to a 21-point evening, only the second time he has eclipsed the 20-point line since joining the Mavs in January.
Portland's Wesley Matthews is probable for Thursday's contest according to the Don Best Sports injury report. The second-year guard scored 13 in Tuesday's loss, playing 36 minutes despite knocking heads pretty hard with Terry in the first quarter.
Friday's off day is followed by Saturday afternoon's fourth game of the series. TNT will have the broadcast starting at 2:00 p.m. (PT).
Thursday's Playoff Tips
By Brian Edwards
Gamblers have six wagering options Thursday night thanks to a tripleheader in the NBA Playoffs. The action will start at Conseco Fieldhouse, where the Pacers will try to avoid going down 0-3 to top-seeded Chicago.
Next, we’ll go to the City of Brotherly Love, where the 76ers will try to avoid a similar fate against the Heat, who took a 2-0 series advantage in Miami. Finally, Portland will return home to the Rose Garden to take on Dallas, which also owns a 2-0 series lead.
Bulls at Pacers
As of late Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had Chicago (64-20 straight up, 49-33-2 against the spread) installed as a 4½-point favorite with a total of 189. Gamblers can take the Pacers to win outright for a plus-170 payout (risk $100 to win $170).
Chicago had to play from behind for nearly all of Game 1, yet Derrick Rose led a furious late fourth-quarter rally that netted the Bulls a 104-99 win. However, the Pacers comfortably hooked up their backers as 11½-point underdogs. Rose scored a game-high 39 points, leading his team on a 16-1 run to close the game. He also had six assists, six rebounds and three blocked shots. Kyle Korver added 13 points off the bench, burying all four of his attempts from 3-point range.
Tyler Hansbrough scored seven straight points to put the Pacers in front 98-88 with 3:38 left in Game 1. He would finish with 22 points, but it wasn’t enough. Danny Granger had a team-high 24 points in the series’s lid-lifter, while Darren Collison finished with 17 points, nine assists and six rebounds.
In Game 2, the Bulls closed as 11½-point favorites again. And once again, the Pacers took the cash but came up short in their bid for an outright upset. Chicago captured a 96-90 triumph thanks to Rose, who produced 36 points, eight rebounds and six assists. Carlos Boozer added 17 points and 16 boards for the winners. In the losing effort, Indiana didn’t get as much from Hansbrough, who was 2-of-12 from the field and had just six points. Collison was bothered by a sprained ankle sustained late in Game 1, limiting him to just 14 minutes of playing time. Collison’s status for Thursday is ‘questionable.’
Indiana (37-47 SU, 40-42-2 ATS) had the same regular-season record that Atlanta had when it gave eventual-champion Boston fits in the first round of the 2008 postseason. But unlike the Hawks, the Pacers were extremely competitive in Games 1 and 2. They blew a golden opportunity in Game 1 and certainly had their chances in Game 2 as well. But now Indiana must do what the Hawks did, answer with a pair of home wins to make this a series that’s going to go deep.
Indiana owns a 6-8 spread record in 14 games as a home underdog, but we should point out that it has won outright in its last three such situations, including a 115-108 win over Chicago on March 18.
Indiana is 24-17 SU and 21-19-1 ATS at home. Meanwhile, the Bulls are 26-15 SU and 25-16 versus the number on the road.
The ‘under’ is 46-38 overall for the Pacers, 23-18 in their home games. The ‘under’ is 48-36 overall for Chicago, 22-19 in its road assignments.
VegasInsider.com’s Chris David likes the Bulls to win outright and isn’t against a money-line wager. David said, “I often hear handicappers say that they don’t like to lay heavy money on a team, but that seems like the best option for Game 3 with Chicago. Most books have the Bulls as -210 favorites (Bet $210 to win $100) on the money-line and while that might be rich for some, it’s the smart play when you look at the Bulls in the second-half of the season. Since the All-Star break, Chicago has gone 26-4 straight up which includes the two victories over the Pacers in this series. Rather than lay the 4½ points on the road, or what will probably be higher by tipoff, the money-line wager can also set you up with nice hedge opportunities at halftime if the Bulls jump out early. That’s certainly a big “If” considering Chicago has trailed by three and four points, respectively, in the first two battles.
Tip-off from Conseco Fieldhouse is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. Eastern on NBA-TV.
Heat at 76ers
As of late Wednesday, most books had Miami (60-24 SU, 41-42-1 ATS) listed as a 4 ½-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 187. The 76ers are plus-170 on the money line (risk $100 to win $170).
Eric Spoelstra’s squad failed to cover the spread in a 97-89 win as a 10½-point home favorite in Saturday’s Game 1. The Heat trailed 31-19 at the end of the first quarter, but it surged back into the lead midway through the second quarter. Chris Bosh finished with 25 points and 12 rebounds, while LeBron James chipped in with 21 points and 14 boards.
In Game 2, Miami raced out to an early lead and cruised to a 94-73 win as a nine-point home ‘chalk.’ James led the way with 29 points, seven rebounds and six assists, while Bosh produced another double-double with 21 points and 11 boards.
Philadelphia (41-43 SU, 47-36-1 ATS) has lost seven of its last eight games both SU and ATS dating back to the regular season. Also, the ‘under’ has cashed in eight consecutive outings.
Doug Collins’ team has thrived as a home underdog, posting a 9-4 spread record with seven outright victories. For the season, the 76ers are 26-15 SU and 23-18 ATS at home.
Miami has won nine in a row over Philadelphia, including all five meetings this year. Only one of this season’s encounters was played at the Wells Fargo Center. That was way back on Oct. 27 and the Heat cruised to a 97-87 win that wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicated. LeBron and Co. led by 26 at the end of the third quarter of this blowout. Dwyane Wade scored a game-high 30 points.
Miami has won 28 of its 41 road games, going 24-16-1 ATS.
The ‘under’ is 44-40 overall for the 76ers, 22-19 in their home outings.
The ‘under’ is 42-41-1 overall for the Heat, 21-20 in its road assignments.
David had these thoughts on the Philly-Miami total: “I usually stay away from ‘over/under’ wagers after seeing a line drop based off the outcome of the previous game, which is the case here. Miami and Philadelphia combined for 167 in Game 2, which never threatened the total (190) and now the number came out at 187 for Game 3. Ironically, Game 1 had a total of 190 as well and that game could’ve gone ‘over’ but the Heat didn’t help the cause with a 17-point effort over the last 12 minutes. So is the line adjustment too much or just right? I feel the move is right and it should probably be lower. The 76ers have busted 100 points just once in their last eight games, which has helped the ‘under’ go 8-0. Plus, Miami has slowed it down in the playoffs (72 and 74 shots) so far and we expect more of the same in Game 3.”
TNT will have the telecast Thursday night at 8:05 p.m. Eastern.
Mavericks at Trail Blazers
Most books are listing Portland (48-36 SU, 43-38-3 ATS) as a 5 1/2-point favorite with a total of 186. Bettors can back the Mavs to win outright for a plus-220 payout (risk $100 to win $220).
Dallas (59-25 SU, 46-35-2 ATS) won Tuesday’s Game 2 by a 101-89 count as a four-point home favorite. Dirk Nowitzki led the way with a game-high 33 points, but Peja Stojakovic provided the biggest lift with 21 points thanks to five 3-pointers. Jason Kidd another solid game, going for 18 points, eight assists and zero turnovers. LaMarcus Aldridge had 24 points and 10 rebounds in defeat. The Blazers also got 18 points, seven rebounds and six assists from Gerald Wallace.
Nowitzki and Kidd were the catalysts in Game 1, an 89-81 Mavs’ win as five-point favorites. Nowitzki scored 28 points and pulled down 10 rebounds. Kidd scored 24 points by burying 6-of-10 from 3-point range. He also had five rebounds, four assists and only one turnover. Aldridge’s team-high 27 points kept the Trail Blazers within striking distance for most of the game.
Portland has covered the number at a 9-2 ATS clip in its last 11 home games. The Blazers won both regular-season meetings against Dallas at the Rose Garden, winning by scores of 104-96 and 104-101.
Rick Carlisle’s team has been a dynamite road underdog, compiling a 14-6 spread record with 12 outright victories. The Mavs took the cash in each of their first 11 games as underdogs this season, collecting outright wins in 10 of those 11 spots.
The ‘under’ has gone 44-39-1 overall for Portland, 22-18-1 in its home games.
The ‘over’ is 47-36-1 overall for Dallas, 24-17 in its road games.
Tip-off is slated for 10:35 p.m. Eastern on TNT.
vegasinsider.com.