Game of the day: Suns at Trail Blazers
By Matt Fargo
The numbers
Portland opened as a 1.5-point favorite over Phoenix for Game 3 with the total set at 205. That over/under is higher than both games played in Phoenix, which is rather surprising as the under has been more frequent in Suns’ road games and Blazers’ home games.
The skinny
Portland is feeling pretty good about things after leaving Phoenix with a series split and heading home for the next two games. Obviously, the Suns are not feeling as good but they should have some confidence following a huge 29-point win Tuesday.
The Blazers have won three of the five meetings this season including the lone game played at the Rose Garden. Portland came back from a 15-point deficit in that game as it outscored the Suns 35-21 in the final period and held on for the three-point win.
Game 1 losers have gone on to win best-of-seven series only 21 percent of the time, which did not bode well for the Suns which extended its playoff run to a dismal 1-7 going back to 2007. It gets a lot better for the home-court-advantage teams when they win Game 2 for a split, however, as those teams have gone on to win the series 63 percent of the time.
With or without Roy
Not many people were giving Portland much of a chance following the loss of Brandon Roy, who is sitting out with a torn meniscus in his knee. With the series extended at least to five games, there is actually a chance Roy could see some action in the later games because the surgery went so well.
This would be huge for the Blazers and if they can get a split at home, it would give home court back to Phoenix but it would buy them some more time. During the regular season, Roy missed 17 games in January and February and the Blazers went 7-10 in those games. Surprisingly, Portland is 2-1 in games against the Suns with Roy riding the pine.
Andre Miller has filled in great and he lit the Suns up for 31 points and eight assists in Game 1. However, the Suns gave Grant Hill the lead defensive assignment on Miller instead of Jason Richardson. Not only did Miller find the going tougher, Richardson seemed energized at the other end.
Tempo wins
The pace of the game has determined who has won so far. In Game 1, Portland controlled the tempo and even though there were more shots attempted by both teams, it went to the Blazers’ advantage. In that first game, the Suns had just four fast-break points but they had seven by the middle of the first quarter in Game 2 on their way to 17 fast-break points overall.
The key for the Blazers is to shorten the game and that means playing their normal style of basketball. On the season, they attempted the fifth fewest shots in the league at 78.7 per game which is right around their average through the first two games here. It will be the defensive end, however, that makes the difference.
Phoenix has put up an average of 88.5 shots per game in this series and on the season, the Blazers are allowing only 77.5 attempts - the second fewest in the NBA. It is safe to say that they will have a much better chance of knocking off Phoenix if it can come anywhere near that average.
Trends
The home team is 6-2-1 ATS the last nine meetings while the favorite is 19-7-2 ATS the last 28 meetings.
Phoenix has done very well against the better teams in the league, going 14-4 ATS against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .700.
The Blazers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game.
The under is 5-1-1 in the Suns last seven games following a double-digit win while the under is 6-0 in the Blazers last six games following a double-digit loss.
Thursday's NBA Tips
By Kevin Rogers
Three playoff series shift venues for Game 3's on Thursday as a pair of home teams look to dig out of 2-0 holes. The Bulls have dropped a pair of games to the Cavs by double-digits while the Thunder fell short of an upset at Los Angeles on Tuesday. Portland stole home-court advantage against Phoenix with a victory in the series opener, but the Suns evened the series with a blowout in Game 2.
Cavs at Bulls - 7:00 PM EST
Cleveland has rolled along through the first two games even though Chicago has put a scare into LeBron James and the Cavs. The Bulls have hung around at times during the first two losses, but are reminding the Cavs that they aren't going away. Chicago needs to pick up a victory in Game 3 or it will be likely packing its bags for the off-season.
The Cavs failed to cover as 10 ½-point favorites in Game 2 with a 112-102 triumph at Quicken Loans Arena. James led the way with 40 points while the Cavs shot a blistering 56% from the floor. The Bulls received a team-high 25 points from an unlikely source, Cleveland-basher Joakim Noah. The ex-Florida Gator also pulled down 13 rebounds, but it wasn't enough to even the series. The 'over' hit for just the third time in the last seven meetings, easily cashing tickets with a 60-point final quarter.
The Bulls have been listed as a home underdog only five times since Christmas, going 2-3 ATS, including a cover as ten-point 'dogs against the Cavs on March 19. Chicago managed to cash without the services of Noah, Derrick Rose, and Luol Deng, all who were out due to injury. The 'under' has been drilled in 12 of the last 17 games, including seven of the last nine at the United Center.
The next stat will have to be taken with a grain of salt, but the Cavs are 3-9 ATS the last 12 games, while going 2-4 ATS the previous six as a road favorite. Granted, four of those games were played without James, as the Cavs rested their star after locking up home-court advantage in the playoffs. Cleveland is 4-8 ATS when laying 4 ½ points or less, including a 1-4 ATS ledger the last five.
Cleveland is listed as 3 ½-point road favorites at most spots, while the total is set at 193.
Lakers at Thunder - 9:35 PM EST
The Lakers expended every last ounce of energy to hold off the feisty Thunder in Game 2 by a 95-92 count. Both teams didn't shoot well in either game from the floor, but Kobe Bryant blew up for 39 points in the Game 2 victory to give the Champs a 2-0 series advantage.
The venue moves to the Ford Center for the first-ever playoff game in Oklahoma City. The Thunder was a profitable 19-15 ATS as a home favorite this season, but just 7-7 ATS against playoff opponents. OKC owns a solid 13-5 SU/ATS mark at home off a loss, while going 25-8 ATS overall off a defeat this season.
The Lakers are a dreadful 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS as a road underdog of less than 3 ½ points, while the 'under' has been cashed in nine of 12 games as a road 'dog of below 6 ½ points. Los Angeles split a pair of games at the Ford Center, including an overtime victory in early November, 101-98. The Thunder managed a cover as seven-point 'dogs despite allowing 52% shooting from the floor. OKC avenged that loss with a 91-75 trouncing of the Lakers at the Ford Center on March 26, limiting L.A. to 39% shooting.
The Thunder is listed as a 3 ½-point favorite in many spots with the total set at 191.
Suns at Blazers - 10:00 PM EST
Phoenix put away Portland early in a decisive 119-90 thrashing of the Blazers in Tuesday's Game 2. The Suns have evened the series at a game apiece, while holding Portland to a dismal 38% shooting from the field. Phoenix now heads up the coast to the Rose Garden where Alvin Gentry's team has struggled to win lately with three straight losses at Portland.
The Blazers are 12-5 SU at home off a loss, including a 6-2 SU mark at home off a road defeat. Brandon Roy remains out with a knee injury, but swingman Nicolas Batum re-injured his right shoulder after colliding with Suns' guard Steve Nash in the second half of the Game 2 loss. Batum missed the first half of the season with a torn labrum in his right shoulder, creating more of a depth issue for Portland if he can't go in Game 3.
The Suns haven't had much success in Oregon, including a 105-102 loss at the Rose Garden on December 17 as 1 ½-point underdogs. Phoenix gave away a 15-point lead in the second half while getting outscored, 35-21 in the final quarter. Each of the last three meetings in Portland has all eclipsed the 'over.'
Phoenix is just 7-10 SU and 9-8 ATS as a road underdog off a win, as the Suns will try to get more bench production in Game 3 after Nash, Grant Hill, Amare Stoudemire, and Jason Richardson combined for 80 of the team's 119 points.
The Blazers are listed as one-point favorites with the total set at 204 ½.
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NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Chicago (0-2, 1-1 ATS) at Cleveland (2-0, 1-1 ATS)
The eighth-seeded Bulls will try to climb back into this first-round, best-of-7 series when they return home to the United Center for Game 3 against the top-seeded Cavaliers.
Cleveland notched double-digit home victories in Games 1 and 2, following up Saturday’s 96-83 win (as an 1 ½-point chalk) with a 112-102 decision Monday night in which it fell just short as a 10½-point favorite. LeBron James went off in Game 2, tallying 40 points, eight rebounds and eight assists, though no other Cavalier scored more than 14 points. The Cavs shot a whopping 56.3 percent from the floor (40 of 71), including 50 percent from long distance (10 of 20).
Chicago’s Joakim Noah (25 points), Derrick Rose (23) and Luol Deng (20) all reached at least 20 points in the Game 2 defeat, and two additional players hit double figures, but it wasn’t enough for the Bulls, who entered the fourth quarter tied at 77 but got outscored 35-25 in the final stanza. Chicago hit 44.1 percent from the floor but made only 4 of 13 from 3-point range (30.8 percent). The Bulls were sterling at the free-throw line, going 16-for-17, but Cleveland was just as good from the charity stripe (22 of 24).
Cleveland went 26-15 SU (22-18-1 ATS) on the road during the regular season, averaging 101.0 ppg on 47.4 percent shooting. Chicago, which didn’t clinch its playoff spot until winning at on the final night of the season, was 24-17 SU (22-19 ATS) at home, narrowly outscoring visitors (98.0-97.3) while shooting 45.2 percent and allowing 43.0 percent shooting. The Bulls lost five straight home games to start March, but have won five of their last eight at the United Center (4-4 ATS).
Cleveland is 5-3 SU (4-4 ATS) in the last eight meetings in this rivalry, though the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests and the home squad is on a 19-9 ATS roll. In addition, the SU winner is 28-3 ATS in the last 31 head-to-head clashes between these Central Division rivals.
The Bulls are on ATS upswings of 13-6 overall (4-1 last five), 18-8-1 against Central Division rivals, 8-1 after a SU loss, 6-2 as an underdog and 24-10 following a spread-cover. However, they remain in ATS ruts of 2-4-1 in first-round playoff games, 4-9 against teams with a winning percentage above .600 and 1-5 going on two days’ rest.
The Cavaliers are on ATS purges of 3-9 overall (1-4 last five), 2-7 as a favorite, 1-5 after a SU win and 2-6 after a non-cover. That said, Cleveland is also 13-4 ATS in its last 17 first-round playoff games (6-1 last seven), 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 outings as a playoff chalk and 25-12-1 ATS in its last 38 following a double-digit SU victory.
The over is on runs for Cleveland of 5-1 as a playoff chalk, 10-4 as a road favorite and 5-1 after a SU win, and Chicago is on “over” stretches of 5-1 in first-round playoff games and 8-1 as a playoff pup. On the flip side, the under is 4-1 in the Cavs’ last five first-round postseason contests, 4-1 in the Bulls last five overall and 7-2 in Chicago’s last nine at the United Center.
Finally, Game 2 went over the total, but the under is still 5-2 in the last seven meetings overall between these Central Division rivals (2-1 in Chicago).
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO
WESTERN CONFERENCE
L.A. Lakers (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) at Oklahoma City (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Just 48 hours after nearly pulling off a Game 2 upset, the Thunder will try to get back in this best-of-7 opening round Western Conference matchup when they welcome the Lakers to the Ford Center.
The Lakers had just two players score in double figures Tuesday, but got a superstar performance from Kobe Bryant who finished with 39 points in a 95-92 home win, but the defending NBA champs came up short as six-point favorites. Pau Gasol (25 points, 12 rebounds) also delivered a big game for Los Angeles, which outrebounded the young Thunder 49-37, but shot just 37.5 percent from the floor. Phil Jackson’s squad hasn’t won three straight games since a seven-game winning streak from March 9-24.
Oklahoma City shot just 39.2 percent from the floor Tuesday, but regular-season scoring champ Kevin Durant had a breakout game with 32 points and eight rebounds after going just 7-for-24 in an eight-point Game 1 loss. Going back to the regular season, the Thunder have dropped six of their last eight games following a four-game winning streak. However, Oklahoma City hasn’t lost three in a row since Jan. 22-27 – a stretch of 38 games.
Los Angeles now takes to the road where it went 23-18 (17-23-1 ATS) in the regular season, but dropped four of five (SU and ATS) down the stretch. Inside the Ford Center, the Thunder went 27-14 (22-19 ATS) and finished with an 11-3 run over their final 14 home games (8-6 ATS).
This is the Thunder’s first playoff series since 2005 when the franchise was the Seattle SuperSonics and they reached the Western Conference semifinals, losing to the Spurs 4-2 (3-3 ATS), after beating Sacramento 4-1 (3-2 ATS) in the opening round. The Lakers’ march to the title last season included a 4-1 (2-3 ATS) series win over the Jazz, 4-3 (SU and ATS) over the Rockets, 4-2 (3-3 ATS) over the Nuggets and then 4-1 (SU and ATS) over the Magic in the NBA Finals. L.A. has reached the postseason five straight times and 15 times in the last 16 years.
The Lakers have won 14 of the last 15 (6-9 ATS) in this rivalry. The Thunder have cashed in four of six meetings this season and both of the two games inside the Ford Center.
Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS in its last four as a playoff underdog, but it is otherwise on several ATS skids, including 2-7 as a road ‘dog of less than five points, 1-4 on the road, 3-12-1 after one day off, 0-4 on Thursday and 0-6 after a straight-up win. Oklahoma City is 0-4 ATS in its last four after a spread cover, but it is on positive ATS runs of 48-21 after a straight-up loss, 5-1 after one day off, 12-3 as a favorite of up to 4 ½ points, 19-9 against winning teams and 5-1 on Thursday.
The Lakers are on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 7-2 overall, 22-8 on Thursday, 19-7 against Western Conference teams, 11-2 as road ‘dogs and 8-2 after a straight-up win. The Thunder have topped the total in nine of 14 as a favorite and 11 of 16 after a spread-cover, but they are on “under” runs of 4-1 as a favorite, 18-7-1 at home against teams with winning records and 8-2 on Thursday.
In this series, the “under” has been the play in four of the last five in Oklahoma City and four of the last five overall, which each of the first two in this series staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Phoenix (1-1 SU and ATS) at Portland (1-1 SU and ATS)
After stealing home-court advantage in this best-of-7 Western Conference first-round series with a Game 1 win in Phoenix, the Trail Blazers now look to go up 2-1 when the Suns come to the Rose Garden for Game 3.
After dropping Game 1 at home 105-100, the Suns played inspired in Game 2 on Tuesday, blowing out the Blazers 119-90 and cashing as 8½-point home favorites. Jason Richardson led the way for Phoenix with 29 points and Steve Nash dished out 16 assists to help the Suns shoot 52.3 percent from the floor. Martell Webster led Portland with 16 points, but the Blazers shot just 38.2 percent and were outrebounded 43-34.
Phoenix went 22-19 (23-18 ATS) away from home this season but won seven of its final nine on the road (5-4 ATS). The Blazers were 26-15 in the Pacific Northwest (19-21-1 ATS) and won seven of their last nine at the Rose Garden to close the season (5-4 ATS), and that included a meaningless122-116 loss to Golden State as 10-point favorites in the regular-season finale .
Phoenix is back in the postseason after missing out last year. This is the Suns’ 19th postseason appearances in the last 22 years. Portland ended a six-year playoff drought last year, but went one-and-done, falling 4-2 to the Rockets (3-3 ATS) in the opening round.
The Trail Blazers have now won five of the last seven series clashes with the Suns (5-1-1 ATS), including three of five this season (3-1-1 ATS). The chalk has cashed in 19 of the last 28 meetings between these two, and the home team is riding a 6-2-1 ATS streak in the last nine contests. Portland has won and covered the last three battles with Phoenix in the Rose Garden.
Phoenix is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a ‘dog of less than five points and 6-21 ATS in its last 27 on Thursday, but it is otherwise on several positive ATS streaks, including 26-10-1 overall, 12-5 on the road, 35-17-1 after a day off, 13-5-1 after a spread-cover and 10-3 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Portland is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home against teams with winning road records, but it is on positive ATS streaks of 4-0 after a straight-up loss, 22-6 as a favorite of up less than five points and 10-4 as a home favorite in that spread range.
The Suns have topped the total in 14 of 17 Thursday games and five of seven against winning teams, but they are on “under” runs of 6-2-1 as a road underdog, 3-0-1 on the road and 5-1-1 as ‘dogs of less than five points. The Blazers have gone “over” the total in four straight overall and five of six as a chalk of less than five points, but they are on “under” streaks of 11-5 at home, 4-1 after a straight-up loss and 7-1 at home against teams with a winning road record.
In this rivalry, the “over” is 5-2 in the last seven series clashes overall (2-0 in this series) and 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in Portland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA RoundUp For 4/22
By Dan Bebe
Cavaliers @ Bulls - Cleveland by 3.5 with a total of 193. Did the Bulls exhaust themselves in that last game? That's the only important question here, really. We know the Cavaliers are going to be a huge public favorite as just small road chalk in this one, and I'm honestly a tad surprised that the Cavs are only laying 3.5. It seems like they could have gotten away with laying a slightly larger number, but hey, oddsmakers know their business better than I do. Still, this is far and away the lowest spread of any of the (now) 7 meetings this season between these two teams. Of course, Chicago played as a favorite in the final meeting, when the Cavs were resting some of their superstars, but considering folks realize that both teams are going to be going full tilt, this line is giving Chicago a fair amount of credit. It's very important that before we place any kind of wager on this one we look at the second game in Cleveland and try to determine how the public is going to view it. My guess is that even though Chicago covered, folks are going to see the Cavs winning both games by double digits, and continue to back Lebron. However, it took an absolutely insane performance by the King to get the Cavs by the Bulls in that game two, and Chicago didn't shoot the ball that well. They out-hustled the Cavs, killed them on the offensive glass, and committed just 4 turnovers, and really, Cleveland should consider itself lucky to have won that game. It's a short spread, but I think this line is telling us that Chicago is actually going to have a legitimate shot to win this game. I lean Bulls. On the total, the last game went soaring over the total. Chicago is going to continue to try to force the issue, which means we'll get a few number of possessions. It's going to come down to making shots, but something tells me this one gets ugly. No lean on the total just yet.
Lakers @ Thunder - Oklahoma City by 3 with a total of 191. Remember the other night when I said the Thunder getting just 6.5 on the road was the fishiest line of the Playoffs? Well, this one tops them all, so far. The Lakers, the Defending Champs, as 3-point road underdogs against the #8 seed? That is all kinds of crazy. What we've seen so far is that the Lakers only respond when pushed, and they got pushed a bit in game two at home. So, Kobe went nuts, hit a handful of threes, nailed a clutch jumper with the score tied, and the Lakers went on a crucial 7-0 run with 3 minutes left in the game to put them up for good. That Lakers SU win was huge for us. First, we backed the Thunder and got the cover. Second, the Lakers are up 2-0, so the Thunder are going to come out guns blazing for one more game. Third, people still see the Lakers winning both games, and assume this Championship team can't be stopped. And fourth, the Lakers not named Kobe skated by playing somewhat choppy offensively and still won. Lamar Odom's injured shoulder seems to be playing a rather hefty role in his disappearance, and Ron Artest is being employed almost exclusively as a defensive stopper. This line, more than anything else, is telling us to back the Thunder. Lean to Oklahoma. On the total, I think we see the Thunder make a few more shots, and force the tempo. Slight lean to the Over after the first two games were brutally low-scoring.
Suns @ Blazers - Portland by 1 with a total of 204.5. So, the venue changes, and suddenly the line goes from Suns by 8.5 or 9 to Portland by a point. Somewhat odd, I must say, but we've been to this rodeo before. Portland got embarrassed in Phoenix in game two, and they never really cared about that one. Once Portland stole game one, it was almost like they figured they'd accomplished their short term goal of a win in Phoenix. But, we've now seen that this team can compete with the Suns. Portland is a tough ballclub, and resilient, and if they can go back to limiting Phoenix's open looks from outside, and slowing the ballgame down, they could potentially win another. This line is definitely on the fishy side, though certainly not as screwy as the game above. I actually thought we'd see Suns favored by a point or two, so this is intriguing. I think the line basically tells us we shouldn't back the Suns, but let's watch some line movement before deciding. Thus, at this early stage, I have no leans on the side (since the Blazers could potentially suffer a little letdown once these guys not named Roy lose some of their energy, but the line is just nuts), and the total is probably pretty accurate, if indeed Portland controls the tempo. Tough game, for sure.