Game of the day: Trail Blazers at Suns Betting Preview
By Matt Fargo
By the numbers
Portland opened as a one-point favorite over Phoenix for Game 6 with the total set at 201.5. With the last three games in this series staying under the total, it is no surprise this is the lowest posted number so far in the series.
The skinny
A week ago, Portland was feeling pretty good about itself. It had stolen a game in Phoenix and headed home with the series split at one game apiece and took over the home-court advantage. Now just seven days later, the Blazers are on the brink of elimination making this a must-win situation.
The teams have each taken four games in the season series with Phoenix taking three-of-five at home and Portland taking two-of-three at home.
The road team has won three of the eight meetings so home court has not exactly been a major advantage and the 16 home losses this season for Portland are the most of any playoff team from the Western Conference.
The Suns finished the regular season with 35 conference wins, tied for the most with the Lakers out West.
Statistical breakdown
Phoenix is averaging 109.9 ppg on the season and if it comes close to that, there is a good chance for a win.
When the Suns score fewer than 100 points, they are 2-11 on the season (2-10-1 ATS). They get better when totaling between 100 and 105 points, going 8-11 SU and 8-11 ATS. But when scoring 106 or more points, Phoenix is 47-8 (41-14 ATS) so putting up a ton of points is the way to win.
Portland has gone over the century mark 38 times this season and has won 29 of those games (28-10 ATS) including three outings against the Suns. Conversely, the Blazers are 23-26 in the 39 games they failed to tally at least 100 points (18-19-2 ATS).
When it comes to defense, it is important for both teams. The Blazers have allowed 100 or more points 28 times and are just 7-21 in those games (8-20 ATS). It is rare for Phoenix to allow teams to miss the century mark but in the 24 games it has done so, it is 22-2 (20-3-1 ATS).
Tempo wins
This is a point that was brought up in the breakdown for last week and it still holds true as the pace of the game has determined who has won so far.
In Game 1, Portland controlled the tempo and even though there were more shots attempted by both teams, it went to the Blazers advantage. In that first game, the Suns had just four fast-break points but they had seven by the middle of the first quarter in Game 2 on their way to 17 fast-break points overall.
In the pivotal Game 3, Phoenix had only 11 fast-break points but the team made up for it with incredible long range shooting, hitting 13-of-28 from behind the arc (46.4 percent).
In Game 4, the Suns were held to just four fast break points and could not hit anything from the outside, shooting just 26.1 percent from 3-point land. Thus, they scored a season low 87 points.
On Monday, the tempo went the Suns way yet again as they held a 17-6 fast-break point advantage and it was their bench that was the difference as it exposed the thin Blazers roster.
History lesson
With home court back on their side, the Suns have a big edge in being able to close the series.
Game 1 losers have gone on to win best-of-seven series only 21 percent of the time. It gets a lot better for the home-court-advantage teams when they win Game 2 for a split however, which Phoenix did, as those teams have gone on to win the series 63 percent of the time.
Now with a 3-2 series lead, the Blazers backs are against the wall. The team that wins Game 5 in a series that is tied ends up taking the series 83 percent of the time.
Trends
- The home team is 8-3-1 ATS the last 12 meetings between these teams while the favorite is 17-7-2 ATS the last 26 meetings.
- Phoenix is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 road games against teams with a winning record at home.
- Portland is 8-20 ATS in home games after a double-digit loss over the last three seasons.
- The under is 7-1-1 in the Suns last nine games following a double-digit win while the under is 8-0 in the Blazers last eight games following a double-digit loss.
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Dallas (2-3, 2-2-1 ATS) at San Antonio (3-2, 2-2-1 ATS)
The second-seeded Mavericks look to fend off elimination for a second time in 48 hours when they travel to the AT&T Center for Game 6 of their best-of-7 first-round series against the Spurs.
Needing a Game 5 win to avoid elimination, Dallas routed the Spurs 103-81 Tuesday night as a five-point home favorite, ending a three-game skid (0-2-1 ATS) following its series-opening victory. Caron Butler torched San Antonio for 35 points and 11 rebounds, and Dirk Nowitzki (15 points, nine rebounds) just missed a double-double.
Tony Parker led San Antonio, but he had just 18 points, and only two teammates cracked double figures – George Hill with 12 points and Tim Duncan with 11. The Spurs shot a meager 35.9 percent (28 of 78), including a 3-for-16 effort from 3-point range (18.8 percent). They were outrebounded 52-41 and had 18 turnovers to Dallas’ 12.
San Antonio scored wins in Games 3 and 4 at the AT&T Center to improve to 31-12 SU (25-16-2 ATS) at home this season, outscoring visitors by more than eight ppg (104.9-96.8) and outshooting them 49.1 percent to 45.9 percent. Dallas stands 27-16 SU and 26-17 ATS on the highway, with the Mavs averaging 101.6 ppg on 46.7 percent shooting and yielding 98.7 ppg (45.3 percent).
These two teams also met in the first round last year, with Dallas winning in five games (4-1 ATS). The SU winner is on a 17-1-1 ATS tear in the last 19 clashes between these Southwest Division rivals (4-0-1 ATS in this series). In addition, the Mavs are 8-3-1 ATS in the last dozen meetings, the host is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 contests (4-1-1 last six) and the chalk is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six. Finally, Dallas is still 12-5-1 ATS on its last 18 visits to the AT&T Center.
The Mavericks are 7-2-1 ATS in their last nine overall, and they are on further pointspread upticks of 5-1-1 on the highway, 7-2-1 after a day off (4-1-1 last six) and 5-1 after either a SU or an ATS win. However, they are also 0-4-1 ATS in their last five as a playoff ‘dog and 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 Thursday starts.
Despite the Game 5 blowout loss, the Spurs still sport positive ATS streaks of 20-9-1 overall, 5-1-1 at home (all as a favorite), 8-3-1 after a day off, 14-6-1 in the West, 8-2-1 as a home favorite and 7-2 after either a SU or an ATS defeat. On the downside, San Antonio is 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight first-round playoff games – all against Dallas.
Dallas is on a plethora of “under” sprees, including 12-4-1 overall (5-0-1 last six, all against the Spurs), 6-0-1 inside the Southwest Division, 5-0 as an underdog, 5-1 following a day off and 9-1-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. That said, the Mavs are on a 12-5 “over” stretch as a playoff pup. San Antonio is on “under” surges of 6-1-1 overall, 7-1-1 against winning teams, 5-0 on Thursday and 15-7 with the Spurs a playoff chalk of less than five points, though the over has hit in five of San Anton’s last seven at home.
Finally, the under is 7-1-1 in this year’s nine clashes in this rivalry, with the last four games of this playoff series staying below the total after a push in Game 1.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Phoenix (3-2 SU and ATS) at Portland (2-3 SU and ATS)
The Suns try to wrap up their best-of-7 Western Conference first-round series against the Trail Blazers when they visit the Rose Garden in Portland for Game 6.
Phoenix assumed a 3-2 lead with Monday’s 107-88 home win, easily cashing as a 7½-point favorite. The Suns had five players score in double figures, with Channing Frye leading the way with 20 points and eight rebounds, while Amare Stoudemire and reserve Jared Dudley both chipped in with 19 points. Portland led 28-27 at the end of the first quarter, but got outscored 57-38 during the middle two stanzas.
Blazers point guard Brandon Roy, who made a surprise return in Game 3 less than two weeks after having knee surgery, has come off the bench in the last two contests. However, Roy is expected to get the start tonight ahead of backup Andre Miller. Also, Portland forward Marcus Camby (dislocated pinky) is likely to play.
These teams return to the Rose Garden where they split third and fourth games of this series, with the Suns dominating Game 3 108-89 and the Blazers rallying in Game 4 for a 96-87 victory Saturday as two-point favorites.
Phoenix is 23-20 (24-19 ATS) away from home this season and has won eight of its last 11 on the road (6-5 ATS). The Blazers are 27-16 in their building (20-22-1 ATS), including taking eight of their last 11 (6-5 ATS).
The Suns are back in the postseason after missing out last year. This is the Suns’ 19th postseason appearances in the last 22 years. Portland ended a six-year playoff drought last year, but went one-and-done, falling 4-2 to the Rockets (3-3 ATS) in the opening round.
The season series is tied 4-4 (with the Blazers holding a slim 4-3-1 ATS edge), but the home team is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings with the chalk cashing in 17 of the last 26 meetings. In Oregon, the Blazers are 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes.
Phoenix is just 7-21 ATS in its last 28 Thursday contests, but it is on several positive ATS streaks, including 28-11-1 overall, 13-6 on the road, 11-4 after two days off, 8-3 as a road ‘dog and 11-4 on the road against teams with winning home records. Portland is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a favorite, but 22-7 ATS in its last 29 as a chalk of less than five points and 5-1 ATS in its last six after a straight-up loss.
The Suns have topped the total in nine of 11 Thursday games, but they’re also on “under” surges of 5-0-1 on the road, 4-0-1 as an underdog, 8-3 against Northwest Division teams, 8-3-1 after a spread-cover and 5-2 against teams with winning records. The Blazers have stayed below the posted total in 13 of 18 at home, six of seven after a straight-up loss, nine of 10 at home against teams with a winning road record and seven of 10 against Pacific Division squads.
The under is 5-2 in the last seven series clashes overall, and each of the last three in this series have stayed low, including both games played in Oregon.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA RoundUp For 4/29
By Dan Bebe
Mavericks @ Spurs - San Antonio by 3.5 with a total of 191. Now, we're starting to really get into the thick of Playoff basketball, and I couldn't be happier. The Mavs got pushed, pretty hard mind you, fell behind 3-1, and managed to push back with a strong home performance in game five. Now, down 3-2, but with a little more confidence, the Mavs need to win one on the road to keep hope alive. Unfortunately, though, this is probably the end of the road for Dallas. They've played great in spurts in this series, including cruising to that game one win, but Dallas just hasn't shown any resilience on the road. They got out to leads in both games, and blew both, and the difference between playing at home and on the road is that when the opponent makes a run (which the Spurs did to end the first half in game five), at home you can counter. This game is going to be the ultimate test for Dallas, since I definitely believe they can get a lead, but can they sustain it? Can Caron Butler hit those shots on the road, and can Brendan Haywood stay out of foul trouble? This should be a good game. Let's not forget how solid the Mavs were on the road during the regular season, and I think Dallas is finally starting to realize how hard they need to play to win in the Playoffs. Still, the Spurs basically rested their starters the entire 2nd half of game 5, so they're going to be energized and Ginobili, in particular, needs as much rest as possible. Lean to San Antonio to finish off Dallas in a tough one. The total is really continuing to make me scratch my head. We've had, now, 4 straight unders, and the only game that went over, cleared the number by a half point. Yet, this line continues to chill in the 190's. I don't get it. Either books are splitting money right down the middle in every game and they don't care about the string of unders, or they truly believe one of these games is due to go over. I need more time on this one, but something tells me that if Dallas is on the brink of elimination, we're going to get some significant fouling down the stretch for a final score of 194. Slight lean to the Over.
Suns @ Blazers - Portland by 1.5 with a total of 202. I have a bad feeling in my gut about Portland's chances to send this one to a game 7, but it depends largely on how the Suns approach this one. But, given that Phoenix has already lost a home game to the Blazers, I think they don't rely on having the final home game, and I think we get a strong effort from Phoenix. There isn't a ton of value with the Suns, since they're coming off delivering a firm spanking to the Blazers in Arizona, but, to me, when you've got a low line, you're just basically picking a winner. Here's my logic. Yes, this line is fairly strong in support of Portland playing a tough game, but I think after that initial burst of adrenaline wore off, Brandon Roy's knee is absolutely going back to being a little less than 100%. Unfortunately for Portland-backers, though, the line merely accounts for Roy playing, not whether he's 80% or 100%, and if he's closer to 80%, as I believe he is, that actually creates some line value on the Phoenix side. We've seen the Suns win in Portland, too, and without the crazy crowd response to Brandon Roy's miraculous return from injury, and with Phoenix smelling blood, I think we get a nice showing from Nash and company. Also, is Marcus Camby truly healthy? Is Batum truly healthy? Portland's banged-up roster has fought valiantly, but I just have that feeling, and maybe it's not supported by the line or situational analysis, but something just tells me Phoenix gets it done. Slight lean to the Suns. This total of 202 remains pretty low for any game involving the Suns, but we know the Blazers are going to try to keep this one in the 90's. The tempo has been pretty slow since game 2, so it's tough to make a strong argument for the over. No lean on the total as of yet, but trying to find a reason to take the over, for what it's worth.
Thursday's NBA Tips
By Brian Edwards
Gamblers have a pair of NBA Playoff games on tap for Thursday, both of which feature clubs facing elimination. Dallas avoided vacation by trouncing San Antonio in Tuesday’s Game 5, but the Mavs have to get a road win to force a Game 7 back at home.
Portland will be looking to stave off elimination for the first time in its Game 6 at home against Phoenix. The Suns cruised to an easy home win in Game 5 of this best-of-seven set.
**Mavericks at Spurs**
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened San Antonio (53-34 straight up, 46-39-2 against the spread) as a 3 ½-point favorite with a total of 190 ½. As of Wednesday night, most books had the Spurs as 3 ½-point ‘chalk’ with the total slightly adjusted to 191. Bettors can back the Mavs to win outright for a plus-145 return (risk $100 to win $145).
Dallas (57-30 SU, 39-46-2 ATS) cruised to an easy victory in Tuesday’s Game 5 at home. Caron Butler exploded for a game-high 35 points and 11 rebounds to lead the Mavs to a 103-81 triumph as five-point favorites. Parlays with Dallas and the ‘under’ paid handsomely when the 184 combined points stayed below the 190 ½-point tally. Dirk Nowitzki added 15 points and nine rebounds, while Jason Kidd produced 10 points, seven boards and seven assists with just one turnover.
In the losing Game 5 effort, Tony Parker had a team-high 18 points and six assists off the bench. Tim Duncan had just 11 points after a four-point effort in Game 4. The Wake Forest product, who has led the franchise to four championships, averaged 25.6 points per game in the first three games of this series. Manu Ginobli finished with just seven points in Game 5.
San Antonio has a 31-12 SU record and a 25-16-2 ATS mark in its home games this season. Meanwhile, the Mavs are 27-16 SU and 26-16-1 ATS in their road assignments.
The ‘under’ is 43-43- overall for the Mavs, 22-21 in their road contests. The ‘under’ is 47-37-3 overall for the Spurs, although they have watched the ‘over’ profit at a 23-19-1 clip in their home outings.
The ‘under’ has gone 4-0-1 in this series to date. Going back even further, the ‘under’ is 7-1-1 in the last nine head-to-head meetings between these squads.
Tip-off is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. Eastern on TNT.
**Suns at Trail Blazers**
This first-round series heads back to the Rose Garden in Portland with the Trail Blazers facing elimination. LVSC opened Nate McMillan’s team as a 1 ½-point favorite with a total of 203 ½. As of Tuesday, most spots had the Blazers installed as one-point ‘chalk’ with the total reduced to 202.
Phoenix (57-30 SU, 51-31-1 ATS) gave out woodshed treatment in Game 5 at home, crushing the Blazers by a 107-88 count as a 7 ½-point favorite. Terry Porter got great production from his bench, particularly Channing Frye and Jared Dudley. Frye had a team-high 20 points and eight rebounds, while Dudley had 19 points thanks to five treys. Steve Nash added 14 points and 10 assists.
After missing the first three games of the series, Portland star guard Brandon Roy came off the bench and was a major contributor in his club’s 96-87 victory as a two-point home underdog in Game 4. Roy had just 10 points in 26 minutes of playing time but his mere presence seemed to lift his club’s morale. LaMarcus Aldridge scored 31 points and pulled down 11 rebounds for the winners.
In the Game 5 loss at Phoenix, Roy was a non-factor in just 18 minutes of action. He had only five points on 2-of-7 shooting from the field. Andre Miller had 21 points, four boards and four assists in defeat, while Aldridge and Jerryd Bayless scored 17 points apiece.
Portland owns a 27-16 SU record but just a 20-22-1 ATS mark in its home games this season. As for Phoenix, it has compiled a 23-20 SU ledger to go with its 24-19-1 ATS mark on the road.
The ‘over’ hit in the first two games of this series, but the ‘under’ has been a winner the last three times out. With that said, we should note that Phoenix games with totals of less than 209 ½ have seen the ‘over’ go 12-3-2.
The ‘over’ is 45-42 overall for the Trail Blazers, but the ‘under’ is 24-19 in their home games.
The ‘under’ is 46-38-3 overall for the Suns, 24-17-2 in their road games.
TNT will have the telecast at 10:35 p.m. Eastern.
vegasinsider.com
NBA News and Notes
Spurs won both home games in series by total of seven points; Dallas scored 100-103 points in its two series wins, 88-90-89 points in their three losses. Spurs turned ball over 18-17 times in two series losses, an average of 10.3 in wins- they shot 35.9% in Game 5 loss, 3-16 from the arc. Dallas led by 11 at halftime in last game here, got outscored 29-11 in third quarter. All five series games stayed under the total.
Closer the game, better for Portland; their three series losses are by 29-19-19 points- their wins are by 5-9. Blazers were -20 in Game 5 in the 19:07 that Camby was off floor; their bench got outscored 55-23 by the Phoenix subs, as Phoenix was +31 in 28:00 that Grant Hill was off floor. Suns have been up 10+ points at halftime in all three series wins- they were down 1-4 points in losses. Last three series games stayed under.
Tips and Trends
Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs
Mavericks: Dallas stepped up in a big way in Game 5, beating the Spurs by 22 points despite facing elimination. Dallas will look to continue the momentum by beating San Antonio tonight to force a Game 7. Dallas scored more than 100 PTS for the 1st time in this series. Mavericks fans can thank F Caron Butler for their domination in Game 5, as he had a game high 35 PTS. F Dirk Nowitzki continues to score in waves against San Antonio, as he's averaging 25.4 PPG during this playoff series. Butler and PG Jason Terry are combining for 33.4 PPG during this series. Dallas will need their scoring options in San Antonio, as they've only scored more than 90 PTS in 1 of their 4 games played their overall this season. The Mavericks are 57-30 SU and 39-46-2 ATS overall this season. Dallas is 27-16 SU and 26-16-1 ATS in road games this season. The Mavericks have proven all season long they are a team to be feared when playing on the road. Dallas is 6-5 ATS as the listed road underdog between 3.5 and 6 PTS this season.
Top Trends
Mavs are 5-0 ATS last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
Under is 4-0 last 4 games as a road underdog.
PROJECTED SCORE: 98 (Side of the Day)
Spurs (-3.5, O/U 191): This is exactly the type of scenario that San Antonio has thrived in over the past decade. San Antonio is up 3-2 in their 7 game series, and they can advance to the 2nd Round with a victory tonight at home. Despite hurt players, San Antonio is the listed favorite tonight. G Manu Ginobli is currently playing with a broken nose, and was limited to only 18 minutes in Game 4. In fact, Coach Popovich only played F Tim Duncan and G Tony Parker for about 25 minutes during Game 4. Popovich hopes his team is rested and ready to fire a good performance tonight. G George Hill is enjoying a coming out party this postseason, as he's doing his best to turn the Big 3 into the Big 4. Duncan, Ginobli, and Parker are each averaging 17 PPG or more so far in this series. San Antonio is 53-34 SU and 46-39-2 ATS overall this season. The Spurs are 31-12 SU and 25-16-2 ATS at home this season. San Antonio is 5-7 ATS as a home favorite between 3.5 and 6 PTS this season. The Spurs are also 6-2 ATS after scoring 85 PTS or fewer in their previous game.
Top Trends
Spurs are 10-1 ATS last 11 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 6-0-1 last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
PROJECTED SCORE: 95
Phoenix Suns at Portland Trail Blazers
Suns: It's very easy to predict the game plan for Phoenix, as they are going to push the pace at every single opportunity. When Phoenix scores more than 100 PTS this series, they win. When they are held to 100 PTS or less, they lose. While their offense gets all the credit, the Suns defense has been strong of late. The Suns have held the Blazers to 90 PTS or fewer in 3 of their past 4 games. Surprisingly, only 3 Suns are averaging double figures in PTS during the playoffs. G Jason Richardson has been on fire against Portland, as he leads the Suns with 22.6 PPG. Richardson has made 17 3 pointers this series while shooting better than 48% from behind the arc. PG Steve Nash is averaging 16 PPG and 10 APG against Portland, as well as being the emotional leader of this Phoenix team. The Suns are 57-30 SU and 51-35-1 ATS overall this season. Phoenix is 23-20 SU and 24-19 ATS on the road this season. The Suns are 4-4 ATS as a road underdog of 3 PTS or less this season. The Suns would really like to end this series tonight, as they would love to get Nash some rest heading into the 2nd Round.
Top Trends
Suns are 8-3 ATS last 11 games as a road underdog.
Under is 4-0-1 last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
PROJECTED SCORE: 105 (OVER - Total of the Day)
Trail Blazers (-1, O/U 201.5): Portland must win tonight to keep their season going. Portland was dominated in Game 5 in Phoenix, and they will need to rebound quickly. The Blazers have shown a propensity to bounce back all season long, not only from blowout losses but also to injuries. After coming back in Game 4, G Brandon Roy struggled during Game 5. Portland is 14-6 ATS after allowing 105 or more PTS in their previous game. The Blazers are 17-14 ATS when revenging a loss against an opponent this season. Portland is getting huge production from PG Andre Miller this series. Miller is averaging 18 PPG and nearly 6.5 RPG against the Suns during this series. F LaMarcus Aldridge is leading Portland in scoring during the playoffs, averaging 19.6 PPG. The Blazers are 52-35 SU and 46-39-2 ATS overall this season. Portland is 27-16 SU and 21-22 ATS at home this season. The Blazers have played well in the role of favorite this year, going 29-23 ATS this season.
Top Trends
Blazers are 14-3 ATS last 17 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 8-0 last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
PROJECTED SCORE: 103