Thursday's Best NBA Bets
Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls (-4.5, 179)
The Bulls aren’t playing quite as well as you would think.
Chicago has won eight of its past 10 games but is just 4-6 against the spread (ATS) over that span. Even more disturbing is the team’s inability to put away lesser competition in the second half. The Bulls have failed to cover the spread in three straight and five of their past seven. That streak includes wins over Toronto, Detroit and Phoenix that all were much closer than they should have been.
The team’s dirty secret is its transition defense. The Bulls are among the best defensive clubs in the league, but are having trouble getting back and keeping teams from scoring easy baskets. Over the past five games, Chicago has scored more transition points than its opponent just once and is giving up an average of 15 fast break points per game.
Oh, and did you realize Rajon Rondo is on fire?
Boston is averaging 98 points per game over its past five – cracking the century mark three times – and it is thanks to the play of its stellar point guard. Rondo is averaging 10 points and 13.5 assists the past two games as the Celtics finally appear to be regaining momentum late in the season.
“Hopefully we can stay healthy going into the playoffs and just get some momentum,” Celtics forward Paul Pierce said. “It’s good to start getting healthy when you see Troy Murphy out there in practice (Monday), and you see (Nenad) Krstic come back. The signs are there. It’s just about building the chemistry now.”
Pick: Celtics
Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz (N/A)
Gordon Hayward is starting to find his groove – and the rest of the league is taking notice.
The rookie from Butler took over an 86-85 win over the Los Angeles Lakers that saw him go 9-of-14 from the field en route to 22 points, six rebounds and five assists. Hayward has cracked double figures in four of the team’s past six games. Not surprisingly, he actively involves teammates when he finds his own shot, notching at least four assists in each of those double-digit scoring performances.
But there is something even more important Hayward brings to the lineup: stability. An underrated athlete and defender, his increased minutes have coincided with the team playing better defense. Overall, Utah has seen the under hit in five straight games and seven of the past 10.
And it’s not like the Trail Blazers have been lighting the scoreboard up.
Portland has failed to score more than 100 points seven times in the past 10 games. The team has seen two of the past three of five of the past 10 go under the total. The team also is coming off a disappointing, 108-87 loss to Golden State.
“I wish I could explain it,” Blazers coach Nate McMillan said. “We looked tired the whole game. We were not reacting. We looked a little winded early, and (the Warriors) pretty much had their rhythm, their tempo most of the way.”
Look for that to be a slow tempo both teams settle in to.
Pick: Under
NBA TNT Doubleheader Preview
By David Chan.
Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls (-4.5, 179)
Boston and Chicago are set to do battle on Thursday night in a potential preview of the upcoming Eastern Conference finals. The Bulls have the inside track on the No. 1 seed and they are three games clear of the Celtics and Heat.
These two teams have faced each other three times this season, with Boston leading the head-to-head series 2-1. After winning a pair of home games in November and December, the Celtics fell at Chicago 90-79 on Jan. 8. They’ll have to do a better job on the glass against one of the best rebounding teams in the NBA. Boston actually won the boards battle by 10 on Dec. 3, but the Bulls dominated 43-31 in rebounds on Nov. 5 and 48-27 on Jan. 8.
PLAYOFF PREVIEW
The Celtics (54-23, 36-39-2 ATS) are coming off another potential playoff preview, as they went up against Philadelphia at home on Tuesday and hammered the Sixers 99-82. Boston featured a balanced scoring attack and shot 52.6 percent from the floor while limiting its opponents to 39.3 percent shooting.
“We’re not going to play those guys [the Bulls and Heat] in the first round,” Rajon Rondo told the Boston Globe afterward. “Tonight was a good test for us. (The Sixers) might be a first-round team and we did a good job making a little statement as far as it’s going to be difficult to beat us in a seven-game series.”
How about just one game? That’s what Chicago (57-20, 46-29-2 ATS) will be looking to do on Thursday, but the visitors probably won’t have a backer in Philadelphia head coach Doug Collins.
“We ran up against a team that played probably as well as they’ve played in a long time,” Collins told the Globe after Tuesday’s loss.
The Celtics, furthermore, are the healthiest they have been in a while. Although Shaquille O’Neal will almost certainly miss the game with a calf strain, the team is used to playing without him (Shaq has missed 22 of Boston’s last 23).
TRENDING TOPICS
The Celtics are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games.
The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games and 1-4 ATS in their last five overall.
The under is 8-2 in Boston’s last 10 road contests and 12-3 in its last 15 overall. However, the over is 8-2 in Chicago’s last 10 overall.
Head-to-head, the Bulls are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with the Celtics and the under is 9-3 in the last 12 at the United Center.
Portland Trail Blazers at Utah Jazz (N/A)
Portland and Utah will be going head-to-head for the fourth time this season when they collide on Thursday night. The Jazz went on the road to win 103-94 back on Nov. 11, but the Trail Blazers got revenge twice in December; 96-91 at Utah and 100-89 at home three days later.
Interestingly, Portland’s Brandon Roy missed all three games. Knee injuries have kept him out for two extended stretches during this campaign, and both coincided with contests against Utah. Roy is good to go now the Jazz will get their first look at him on Thursday.
At the same time, though, they will have to do a better job focusing on the Trail Blazers’ LaMarcus Aldridge. The 6-foot-11 power forward is averaging 25.7 in his three outings versus Utah and also pulled down 11 boards in the first showdown.
TRAIL TO THE PLAYOFFS
Portland (45-33, 40-35-3 ATS) got blown out 108-87 at home by Golden State on Tuesday, but it still clinched a playoff spot by virtue of Houston’s loss to Sacramento.
Nonetheless, the Trail Blazers have no reason to sandbag it throughout the remainder of the regular season. They stand in sixth place (which would likely pit them against Dallas in Round 1) but are just one game ahead of eighth-place Memphis, meaning a first-round series against either the Spurs or Lakers is real possibility.
“It's a big concern when you lose,” point guard Andre Miller told OregonLive.com. “We don't want to throw away games, especially at this point when you're trying to position for a playoff spot.”
ALL THAT JAZZ
Which Jazz team will show up on Thursday? That’s a tough call.
Will it be the one that has stumbled through most of the season and had lost eight in a row prior to Tuesday, or will it be the one that just went into the Staples Center and stunned the Western Conference-leading Lakers?
Sample size suggests it will be the former, and the injury report indicates the same. Raja Bell (foot), Kyrylo Fesenko (thumb) Devin Harris (hamstring), and Andrei Kirilenko (knee) are all questionable for Thursday’s clash. All four players have missed at least two straight games.
That is not good news for Utah (37-41, 32-44-2 ATS), who’ll miss Mehmet Okur (back, out for season) and Ronnie Price (calf, out indefinitely).
TRENDING TOPICS
The Trail Blazers are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with losing SU records.
The Jazz are 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 outings against teams with winning SU records and 1-4 ATS in their last five overall.
The under is 4-0 in Utah’s last four against the Western Conference and 5-0 in its last five overall.
Head-to-head, the over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between the two teams and the home team is 13-5 ATS in the last 18 encounters. The Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Utah.
Chicago Bulls look to bury Celtics
By: Michael Robinson
The Chicago Bulls look to severely damage the Boston Celtics’ conference hopes when they meet Thursday night in the Windy City.
TNT will have the 5 p.m. (PT) broadcast from the United Center, right before the only other Thursday game of Portland at Utah.
Chicago (57-20 straight-up, 46-29-2 against the spread) tops Boston and Miami by three games each for the Eastern Conference lead. All three teams have just five games left, so a Bulls win would almost eliminate any Boston chance of overtaking them.
Chicago’s last game was a 97-94 home win over Phoenix on Tuesday. Joakim Noah (ankle) returned after missing three games and Carlos Boozer played despite battling an illness. Both scored 12 points and Derrick Rose had a team-high 19 as he continues his ascension towards league-MVP.
Phoenix trailed by 22 points in the third quarter, but kept cutting down the lead until it was two points late in the fourth. Chicago failed to ‘cover’ as 11-point favorites and is 0-3 ATS in its last three, despite winning all three (four-game winning streak overall).
The 191 combined points scored went ‘under’ the 203½-point total. The ‘over’ was 8-1 in Chicago’s previous nine games.
Chicago is 34-5 SU at home, tied with San Antonio for the NBA’s best mark. The Bulls are 23-14-2 ATS at home overall, but 0-4 ATS in their last four.
The Celtics (54-23 SU, 36-39-2 ATS) are trying to right the ship and head into the playoffs playing good basketball. They also want to at least finish ahead of Miami for second in the conference.
Boston has won and ‘covered’ its last two games over Detroit (101-90) and Philadelphia (99-82). Both were at home with the Philly game on Tuesday. The team is 13-9 SU and 9-13 ATS since trading Kendrick Perkins to Oklahoma City for Nenad Krstic and Jeff Green.
Coach Doc Rivers still has a big issue at center. Krstic (knee) played 18 minutes off the bench last game after missing two contests. He had a solid eight points and six rebounds, but was struggling before his injury.
Jermaine and Shaquille O’Neal are the other center options. Jermaine has started the last two games, but is playing limited minutes after coming off his knee injury. Shaq (calf) has played a grand total of five minutes since Feb. 1 and is listed as doubtful for Thursday.
It has to be hard for Boston to see Perkins doing so well in Oklahoma City, especially with the title window closing real fast for veterans Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen.
The Celtics are 23-15 SU and 18-20 ATS on the road this year. They went 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS on a recent four-game trip.
The home team is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in games between Boston and Chicago this year. The Bulls won their only one at home, 90-79 as two-point ‘chalk’ on January 8. Noah and Garnett both missed that contest, which easily went ‘under’ the 187-point total.
The ’under’ is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in Chicago overall.
Noah presents a lot of problems for Boston on the boards with his quickness and hustle as neither Jermaine O’Neal nor Krstic can keep up with him. This is always a great matchup too between point guards Rose and Rajon Rondo. Rose has the strength advantage and had 36 points in the home win.
Chicago is not reporting any significant injuries, while Boston only has the Shaq situation.
Both teams return to the hardwood on Friday night. Boston is home versus Washington, while Chicago is at Cleveland.
Trail Blazers visit Utah Jazz on NBA betting slate
By: Brad Young
The National Basketball Association’s regular season is quickly coming to a close, but there is still some time to improve or maintain playoff positioning.
Portland (45-33 straight up, 40-35-3 against the spread) currently resides in sixth place in the Western Conference standings. It seems highly unlikely that the Trail Blazers will catch Denver, but they must really worry about New Orleans and Memphis overtaking them in the standings.
Utah (37-41 SU, 32-44-2 ATS) is playing out the string to a disappointing season, but can still play a spoiler roll down the stretch. TNT will provide coverage of Thursday’s tilt beginning at 7:30 p.m. (PT) from EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City. The game follows the Boston, Chicago matchup on the same network.
Portland was riding a two-game SU and ATS winning streak before Tuesday’s inexplicable home loss to Golden State as 10-point ‘chalk,’ 108-87. The combined 195 points failed to topple the 203-point closing total. The Trail Blazers did secure a playoff berth despite the setback when Houston lost at Sacramento.
Portland was outscored in the second half, 61-40, and finished the contest trailing the Warriors in rebounding, 46-40, while delivering more assists, 19-16. The Trail Blazers shot 41 percent (34-of-83) from the field, and a dismal 14 percent (3-of-21) from behind the arc.
Power forward LaMarcus Aldridge posted 17 points and 12 rebounds in the loss, while guard Wesley Matthews provided 17. Small forward Nicolas Batum scored 15 points in the defeat, while point guard Andre Miller had 12.
Utah had dropped eight games in a row SU and four consecutive contests ATS before surprising the Los Angeles Lakers Tuesday as a 13 ½-point road underdog, 86-85. The combined 171 points failed to eclipse the 193-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 7-1 the previous eight outings.
The Jazz finished the contest with advantages in rebounding, 52-49, assists, 20-19, and fast break points, 22-16. Utah shot 40 percent (34-of-85) from the field, and 39 percent (5-of-13) from 3-point land.
Rookie forward Gordon Hayward paced the offense with 22 points, six rebounds and five assists, while power forward Paul Millsap had 22 and seven. Forward Derrick Favors had 14 and 11 in the victory, while center Al Jefferson provided 11 and 11.
Portland is 2-1 SU and ATS this season against Utah, winning Dec. 27 as a 7½-point road underdog, 96-91, and Dec. 30 as a one-point home ‘chalk,’ 100-89. The Jazz prevailed Nov. 20 as a 3½-point road ‘dog, 103-94. The favorite is 10-3 ATS the last 13 games in this series, while the ‘over’ is 7-2 the previous nine encounters.
Portland center Marcus Camby (neck injury) is ‘questionable’ versus the Jazz. Utah guard Devin Harris (hamstring) and forward C.J. Miles (ankle) are ‘probable’ against the Trail Blazers, while centers Francisco Elson (knee) and Kyrylo Fesenko (thumb) are ‘questionable.’ Guard Raja Bell (foot) and forward Andrei Kirilenko (knee) are ‘doubtful’ for this matchup.
Portland concludes its regular season with a two-game homestand against the Los Angeles Lakers and Memphis followed by a road trip to Golden State. Utah has a two-game road trip against San Antonio and New Orleans before concluding its season with a home game against Denver.
The Jazz have struggled to an 8-20 ATS ledger their last 28 home games. Utah has seen the ‘over’ go 36-15 its previous 51 outings against Northwest Division opponents.
Inside the Paint - Thursday
By Chris David
Postseason Notes
Even though we still have seven days of regular season action left, 15 of the 16 playoff spots in the Association have been locked up and the last one could come as soon as tomorrow. The postseason begins on Saturday Apr. 16 and while we know who’s going to be dancing, most of the matchups are up in the air.
If the playoffs started this weekend, the first round would look as follows:
2011 NBA Playoffs (Projected Seeds)
Eastern Conference Western Conference
(1) Chicago vs. (8) Indiana (1) San Antonio vs. (8) Memphis
(2) Boston vs. (7) Philadelphia (2) L.A. Lakers vs. (7) Portland
(3) Miami vs. (6) New York (3) Dallas vs. (6) New Orleans
(4) Orlando vs. (5) Atlanta (4) Oklahoma City vs. (5) Denver
In the Eastern Conference, the 1-8 and 4-5 matchups appear to be set in stone as long as Chicago doesn’t fade down the stretch. The other first round battles are still up in the air but you’re going to have Boston and Miami hosting either New York or Philadelphia. Those series look like potential traps for the Celtics and Heat but this writer believes the pair should advance and meet in the conference semifinals.
Memphis (44-34 straight up) hasn’t clinched yet but its magic number is one for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Grizzlies coach Lionel Hollins certainly won’t garner Coach of the Year honors but the job he did this season was great not only for his club but for gamblers too. Memphis (50-27-1 against the spread) has been an ATM machine for bettors, which includes a vicious 24-10 (71%) mark as an underdog. The Grizz will meet the Spurs in the first round and you should note that the regular season series was split (2-2) with the home team winning all four affairs, but guess who covered in every contest?
Similar to the East, the top (1-8) and middle matchups (4-5) are all but locked up while the L.A. Lakers and Dallas are still wondering who they’ll be playing. It’s going to be New Orleans or Portland. The pair are deadlocked (45-33) heading into the final weekend, but the Hornets (3-1) own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Trail Blazers.
New Orleans finishes with home games against Phoenix and Utah, plus it has road tilts against Memphis and Dallas. Portland has fared better against the Mavericks (2-2 SU, 4-0 ATS) than the Lakers (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) this season, but jumping the Hornets would require some luck due to the aforementioned tiebreaker.
Underdogs Barking
After taking Monday off, bettors watched the underdogs produce a 10-3 ATS mark on Tuesday and that included seven outright winners. Yesterday, the favorites bounced back a little bit but the ‘dogs still covered seven of the 12 games. Some notable surprises included Milwaukee’s road win (90-85) over Miami as a nine-point underdog and Golden State’s home victory against the Lakers (95-87).
TNT Test
Technically, Boston (54-23 SU, 35-40 ATS) still has a chance to earn the top spot in the East over Chicago (57-20 SU, 47-30 ATS) but it’s a real longshot. The Bulls have a magic number of three with five games left, including tonight’s battle versus the Celtics. A Chicago win here would push the magic number to one and also lock up the regular season series with Boston at two games a piece.
Oddsmakers sent out Chicago as a 4 ½-point home favorite over Boston. Former Celtics assistant and now head coach of the Bulls, Tom Thibodeau, has done a great job this season and will more than likely be Coach of the Year. A lot of people point to the talent on the court, especially point guard Derrick Rose, but keep in mind that other key pieces in Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah have missed a combined 57 games. Defense was the key for Thibodeau in Boston and the same philosophy has been duplicated in Chicago.
It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Bulls are allowing 91.5 points per game, which is ranked second in the league. Ironically, Boston is one step up above (90.8 PPG) Chicago in terms of defensive prowess. When you take those numbers into consideration, it makes you understand why tonight’s ‘over/under’ is hovering around 179 points.
In last Thursday’s ITP column, we noted how shaky the Celtics have been in back-to-back spots this season. And we also mentioned how dominating they were in the front end of a two-game set. Fortunately for us and those that followed the trend last week, Boston improved to 15-2 SU and 13-4 ATS (76%) in the first game by beating San Antonio (107-97) on the road. And like clockwork the Celtics lost at Atlanta (83-88) the very next night, which dropped their record to 7-10 SU and 4-13 ATS on zero days rest.
Do the trends continue? After playing Chicago, Boston hosts Washington tomorrow from TD Garden.
The home team has won first three regular season meetings between this pair but they haven’t squared off since early January, when Chicago captured a 90-79 win at United Center. The combined 169 points never threatened the closing number (187) but the two affairs played in Boston both went ‘over’ the number. Tip-off is set for 8:05 p.m. EST.
Chase, Press or Pass?
Portland (45-33 SU, 42-34 ATS) and Utah (37-41 SU, 32-45 ATS) wrap up Thursday’s festivities and this game has pass all over it. As mentioned above, the Trail Blazers are in the playoffs but they need the win to improve their seed. It’s obvious that Portland is the better of the two teams here, but can you back a team that is 1-5 in its last six on the road and the lone win during that span came against a short-handed Spurs team (100-92) that was missing its big trio to injuries. The Jazz just snapped an eight-game losing streak on Tuesday with a road win over the L.A. Lakers, 86-85. Rookie Gordon Hayward looked great (22 points) in the victory but Utah’s offense is very limited, which has helped the ‘under’ cash in seven of the last eight. Portland is 2-1 both SU and ATS versus Utah this season, with all three games occurring in 2010.
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