Inside the Paint - Thursday
By Chris David
We’ve reached the final TNT double-header of the regular season, which means the playoffs are right around the corner. Three of the four squads on tap this week have already booked tickets to the second dance and one is waiting in line. The first contest tips at 8:05 p.m. EDT. Let’s break ‘em down!
Cleveland (61-17 SU, 38-40 ATS) at Chicago (37-40 SU, 39-36 ATS)
Chicago has had every opportunity to make the playoffs this season but it appears that Vinny Del Negro’s team can’t press the right buttons at the right time. The Bulls trail Toronto by one game for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, plus the Raptors own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bulls. With both teams having five games left, one against each other, every contest becomes just as important as the next.
On Tuesday, the Bulls had a chance to pull even with the Raptors but the team lost to Milwaukee (74-79) at home. The offense put forth the worst effort of the season and nobody could stop John Salmons (26 points), who was traded from the Bulls to the Bucks in February. What do they say about Karma?
Including tonight’s contest against Cleveland, the Bulls only play two of their final five games at home. Fortunately for Chicago, the Cavaliers might rest some starters for tonight after the team clinched the overall top seed in the playoffs by beating Toronto (113-101) at home on Tuesday.
This will be the front end of a back-to-back set for Cleveland, plus the team wraps up the season with two playoff contenders, Orlando and Atlanta. Does Mike Brown rest his guys for the next two then step up against the Magic and Hawks? When asked what his plans were after locking up the No. 1 seed, Brown said “I look at these games as a high-level practice. If we don’t win, it doesn’t really matter.”
Chicago beat Cleveland 86-85 at Quicken Loans Arena on Nov. 5 as an 11 ½-point underdog. Since that win, the Cavaliers have captured the next two meetings, including a 92-85 decision in the Windy City on Mar. 29. The Bulls did save face by covering as 10-point home ‘dogs.
The ‘under’ has cashed in all three battles between the two teams this season and is on a 4-0 run going back to last year. Chicago has also watched the ‘under’ go 8-2 in it last 10, but the Cavs are on a 3-1 ‘over’ run.
After this game, the Bulls will face New Jersey on zero days rest tomorrow before heading to Toronto on Sunday for what will be a preliminary playoff game. Chicago finishes up the final week with another back-to-back set, home versus Boston and at Charlotte.
L.A. Lakers (55-22 SU, 33-41 ATS) at Denver (50 27 SU, 32-40 ATS)
This will be the fourth and final encounter between the Lakers and Nuggets takes place from Pepsi Center on Thursday at 10:35 p.m. EDT. This game means a lot more for Denver, who can finish as high as the second seed in the Western Conference or even drop all the way down to the eighth spot.
Ever since head coach George Karl announced that he would leave the team to fight throat and neck cancer, the Nuggets haven’t been the same. Denver has gone 5-6 SU and a miserable 1-9-1 ATS over the last 11. Six of the 11 were on the road, but even the home games saw lackluster performances, especially on offense. The attack was held under 100 in four of their five contests in Denver.
Despite the sluggish stretch, Denver has still been a force at home (32-6 SU, 18-19 ATS) this season. The Nuggets have averaged 111 points per game at home, which has helped the ‘over’ go 21-17. Los Angeles has gone 22-16 SU and 17-21 ATS on the road this season, and its 2-3 in its last five away from home.
Fatigue could play a part tonight, since Denver will be facing a back-to-back situation on Thursday after playing at Oklahoma City last night and the Lakers have been off since Sunday. The Nuggets have gone 9-11 SU and 6-12-2 ATS on zero days rest this season and that includes a 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS record in the last three back-to-back spots.
Los Angeles still hasn’t clinched the top spot in the West but can do so with one win over its final five games or losses by the teams chasing the Purple and Gold. The Lakers are coming off an embarrassing home setback to San Antonio (81-100) on Sunday and they’re 2-4 both SU and ATS in their last six. If you go back to the All-Star break, L.A. has gone 14-9 SU and 7-15-1 ATS in the second-half of the season.
Denver has captured two of the first three meetings against the Lakers this year, including a 105-79 win on Nov. 13 as a four-point home favorite. The combined 184 points never threatened the closing total of 212. The ‘under’ has gone 2-1 in the three contests this season.
Los Angeles center Andrew Bynum (Achilles) should be ready by the playoffs but he could see action in this spot. The Lakers have gone 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS during his absence and the ‘under’ has posted a 5-3 mark over this span.
After tonight, the Lakers travel to Minnesota for their final game of the season on zero days rest. Denver stays at home for two more, with San Antonio visiting on Saturday and Memphis on Monday. Then, the Nuggets close their season at Phoenix next Wednesday.
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NBA on TNT Doubleheader Preview
Cleveland Cavaliers at Chicago Bulls
Rest for the weary?
With four games remaining, the Cavaliers (61-17, 37-40-1 ATS) have clinched home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, including the NBA Finals if they make it that far. This is good news for a team that is slightly banged up coming down the stretch.
Anderson Varejao had missed four games with a sore left hamstring, but he returned in a 113-101 home win over Toronto Tuesday night, recording 10 points and four rebounds.
“(Tuesday’s game) wasn't really part of my plan for the playoffs,” coach Mike Brown told the Cleveland Plain Dealer. “There will be some games guys sit out. But it will be different times for different guys. I look at these games as a high-level practice. Obviously, if we don't win, it really doesn't matter.”
Delonte West missed Tuesday’s contest with back spasms and he is listed as questionable for Thursday. Shaquille O’Neal has been sidelined for five weeks with a thumb injury and is not expected to return until the playoffs.
Daniel Gibson has missed five games with a foot problem and is also listed as questionable.
Healthy but not wealthy
The Bulls (37-40, 39-36-2 ATS) are in the exact opposite situation. They are fighting for their playoff lives and they finally have a clean bill of health for the postseason push.
Chicago trailed the Raptors by one game for the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference as of Wednesday afternoon, prior to Toronto’s home game against Boston.
“I think we're very focused,” Joakim Noah told the Chicago Tribune. “We understand we have to be on edge. If not, we're going to lose. We have to fight every night. If we don't come with that mindset, we can lose by 40. We have proven that this year.”
Noah, who missed nine games in March nursing an injured foot, has appeared in nine straight contests and has reached double-figure marks in scoring and rebounding in three of his past four outings.
Luol Deng (calf) was sidelined for 11 consecutive games in March, but he is coming off a 16-point, 10-rebound performance in a 79-74 loss to Milwaukee Tuesday in what was his third game back from injury.
Prior engagements
The Cavs and Bulls have faced each other three times this season, with Cleveland leading the head-to-head series 2-1. As an 11.5-point road underdog on November 5, Chicago pulled off a surprising 86-85 victory. On December 4, Cleveland got revenge at home 101-87, just barely covering a 12.5-point spread.
Their most recent encounter came in Chicago on March 19. The Cavaliers, 10-point road favorites, prevailed 92-85 behind 29 points from LeBron James and they out-rebounded the Bulls 53-41. Chicago was playing without Noah and point guard Derrick Rose.
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The Cavaliers are 2-5 ATS in their last five road games and 1-5 ATS in their last six overall.
The Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last five against the Eastern Conference and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 overall.
Cleveland (37-38-3 O/U) has not been a good over/under play this season, but the under has definitely been the way to go with Chicago (32-44-1 O/U). The under is 6-1 in the Bulls’ last seven home games and 8-2 in their last 10 overall.
Head-to-head, the under is 4-0 in the last four meetings and Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home against Cleveland.
Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets (-2, 203.5)
Something to play for?
Having all but wrapped up home-court advantage throughout the West Conference playoffs, Los Angeles—like Cleveland—has little for which to play.
But don’t tell that to the Lakers (55-22, 32-42-3 ATS), who have lost three of four (1-3 ATS) and four of six (2-4 ATS) and are coming off a 100-81 blowout loss to San Antonio at home Sunday.
“We really want to go in and play them and play hard,” coach Phil Jackson told the Los Angeles Times of his team’s remaining games. “Maybe not show our whole hand, but still have that kind of game that we want to play."
Added Pau Gasol: “If we're able to finish on a high note, feeling good about what we're doing and how things are going, I think it'll be a plus for the playoffs.”
By George
The Nuggets (50-27, 32-39-6 ATS) have been struggling on the court, losing five of eight games (1-6-1 ATS), but their spirits got a boost from a Monday visit to George Karl.
“It was uplifting to see him and talk to him,” Chauncey Billups told the Denver Post of his head coach, who is undergoing treatment for throat cancer. “I told him I hope he hasn't been watching too many of our games lately.”
“When I saw him with a high sense of humor I felt better,” explained Nene. “He made me feel better.”
If Denver wants to start feeling better on the court, the team needs to get healthy. Kenyon Martin is out until mid-April with a knee injury and Chris Anderson missed Saturday’s win over the Clippers with a minor ankle problem.
Prior engagements
The Lakers and Nuggets have gone head-to-head three times this season, with Denver leading the series 2-1. As 4-point home favorites on November 13, the Nuggets cruised to a 105-79 victory. As an 8-point road underdog on February 5, Denver went into L.A. and pulled out a 126-113 win.
Los Angeles exacted revenge at home on February 8, hitting the 6-point spread on the mark with a 95-89 victory. Kobe Bryant scored just 14 points while going a dismal 3-for-17 from the floor, but the Lakers limited Denver to 35.9 percent shooting and forced the visitors into 20 turnovers.
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The Lakers are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games overall.
The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last five home outings and 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 overall.
Los Angeles (33-43-1 O/U) has been a stellar under play this season while the under has also been the way to go with Denver (36-41 O/U), though to a lesser extent. The under is 7-3 in the Lakers’ last 10 overall and 8-2 in the Nuggets’ last 10 overall.
Head-to-head, the under is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings between the two teams.
Cleveland (61-17, 37-40-1 ATS) at Chicago (37-40, 39-36-2 ATS)
The Bulls try to climb into the final Eastern Conference playoff spot when they host the Cavaliers inside the United Center.
Cleveland has already wrapped up the NBA’s best record and home-court advantage in each round of the playoffs. On Tuesday, the Cavaliers scored a 113-101 home win over the Raptors, cashing as a 5½-point favorite to snap a five-game ATS slide and a 2-7 ATS funk. Cleveland has dropped two straight on the highway (0-2 ATS) after a four-game road winning streak (3-1 ATS).
Chicago, trailing the Raptors by a half-game in the race for the eighth and final spot in the conference playoff race, has won six of its last nine and cashed in seven of 10 overall. However, the Bulls dropped a 79-74 home game to the Bucks on Tuesday, getting upset as a 5½-point favorite. The Bulls are just 2-3 (SU and ATS) in their last five home games and only 22-17 at home this season (19-18-2 ATS).
The Cavs have taken two of three from Chicago this season and five of the last seven (4-3 ATS). Back on March 19, Cleveland won 92-85 in Chicago but came up short as a 10-point road chalk. The Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last five clashes with the Cavs in Chicago, and the home team is 4-1 ATS in those five meetings.
Cleveland is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven Thursday games, but is currently shouldering ATS skids of 1-5 overall, 2-5 on the road, 1-4 after a day off and 0-4 after a straight-up win. Chicago is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home against a team with a winning road record, but otherwise the Bulls are on ATS runs of 9-3 overall, 18-7-1 against Central Division teams and 6-0 after a straight-up loss.
The Cavaliers have topped the total in seven of 11 after a spread-cover and three of four on Thursday, but they’ve stayed “under” the number in four of five against teams with a losing record and 19 of 26 against Central Division rivals. The Bulls have gone “over” the posted number in four of five at home against teams with winning road records, but they are on “under” streaks of 8-2 overall, 6-1 at home, 7-1 against Eastern Conference teams and 15-5-1 on Thursday. The “under” has also cashed in four straight in this series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
L.A. Lakers (55-22, 32-42-3 ATS) at Denver (51-27, 33-39-6 ATS)
The Nuggets shoot for their fourth straight victory when they take on the Lakers inside the Pepsi Center.
Denver is in a battle with the Mavericks, Utah and Phoenix for the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference playoffs, and currently sits tied with Dallas, a half-game ahead of the Suns and Jazz. Last night, the Nuggets went to Oklahoma City and rallied past the Thunder on 98-94, cashing as 2½-point underdogs. Denver’s three-game winning streak (2-1 ATS) comes on the heels of 1-5 SU and 0-7-1 ATS slumps.
Los Angeles has dropped three of four (SU and ATS), including Sunday’s 100-81 home setback to the Spurs as a 4½-point favorite. The Lakers shot just 33-for-81 from the field and got outrebounded 41-34 by the Spurs. Los Angeles is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine overall, including 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four roadies.
After losing 4-2 (3-3 ATS) to the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals last season, the Nuggets have taken two of three (2-0-1 ATS) from Los Angeles this season, including a 105-79 home win back on Nov. 13, easily cashing as a four-point favorite.
The Lakers have cashed in 29 of their last 45 as a road ‘dog, but they are on ATS slides of 7-15-1 overall, 3-7-1 against Northwest Division squads and 2-6 when catching less than five points. Denver is 7-0 ATS in its last seven at home against an opponent with a winning road record and 10-4 ATS in its last 14 on Thursday, but it also carries negative ATS trends of 2-9-1 overall, 1-4 at home, 1-7-1 on the second night of a back-to-back and 1-7 as a favorite.
Los Angeles is on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 7-3 overall, 10-2 as an underdog, 13-4 against Western Conference teams, 11-4 against winning squads and 14-6 on the road against opponents with a winning home record. The Nuggets are on “under” streaks of 9-2 overall, 4-1 at home and 6-1 as a favorite.
In this rivalry, the under has cashed in 12 of 16 overall and seven of nine in the Mile High City.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA RoundUp For 4/8
By Dan Bebe
Cavaliers @ Bulls - This line is OFF. You have to believe that there will not be a game this entire season where we'll see the Bulls play harder than they do in this game. Something tells me the Cavs actually win this thing in heartbreaking fashion, but if Cleveland is laying points, which they will be if Lebron is playing, then we can still get a little value with Chicago. The Bulls are coming off a loss, at home, to the shorthanded Bucks, so I believe that will create a little value on the home team here, and my only concern is that NBA is such a low-volume sport right now that the sharps will dictate the line's position and work on middling while the rest of us have to watch lines bounce around. In any case, I happen to believe Cleveland's defense is lacking, and I lean Chicago. On the total, if Cleveland isn't focused, that would seemingly mean that the total should rise. I'm pondering a lean to the Over, but I really just don't know where this line is going to open. Let's wait and see.
Clippers @ Kings - Sacramento by 5.5 with a total of 199.5. Clippers coming off a game at home against Portland last night, and we've seen how awful they can be on back-to-back. Sacramento strikes me as one of those teams that just can't quite get it done in the 4th quarter against good teams. The Clippers are not a good team, but to their credit, they showed some fight at home against the Blazers, and actually covered the number. I'm surprised that this line is only 5.5, but I think that because Sacramento has looked bad over the last couple weeks and the Clippers are actually coming off a game that put money in Clips-backers' pockets, any movement we see in this line is going to be money-related, not perception-based. I like the Kings right now, but a stark line move could change my mind. On the total, that would seem to be insanely high, since these teams have played 3 times to final totals of 188, 189, and 191. Will the pace really be quick enough to get over 199.5? The line is fishy, especially with the run of unders the Kings have been on. Let's see where the money comes in on this one, since, and this is complete honesty here, it has all the makings of a public fade.
Lakers @ Nuggets - Denver by 2.5 with a total of 203.5. Denver is coming off a supremely impressive road win over the Thunder, though, admittedly, Oklahoma City might have been a tad tired in the later stages of that game. With that in mind, I'd love to try to find a way to back the Lakers, since this time it's Denver flying back into the altitude. Problem is, I just don't know how much the Lakers care to bump and smash for 48 minutes with a team fighting for the #2 seed in the West. Kobe is going to want to, but can we say the same for someone like Gasol? These games going into the playoffs are all about tune-ups for Phil Jackson's squad, so it's very tough to say. Middle of the season, I'd take Lakers, but this particular timing is a little disconcerting. I certainly can't lean Denver, not on back-to-back, especially if Melo is at all ailing and Kenyon and the Coaches are all missing in action, so I guess I lean LA by default. On the total, both teams are coming off lower-scoring games, but I'm not sure we don't see another grinder. This number is pretty close to accurate, but something tells me it just barely slips Under.
Trend Report - Thursday
By Ed Meyer
Cavaliers at Bulls – The Cavaliers are 6-0 ATS (9.2 ppg) since November 15, 2008 when they had at least ten more assists in their previous game than in the game before. The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS (10.0 ppg) since December 06, 2008 on the road after a double digit home win in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) since January 08, 2010 after a loss in which they made more baskets than their opponent.
Clippers at Kings – The Clippers are 0-9 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since February 22, 2009 on the road when facing a team that covered by double digits against them in their previous same-season meeting at home. The Kings are 0-8 ATS (-8.0 ppg) since May 02, 2006 after playing at home against the Spurs. The Kings are 0-8 ATS (-7.9 ppg) since April 07, 2009 after a home loss in which their DPA was negative. The Kings are 0-6 ATS (-7.5 ppg) since March 16, 2010 after a game in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.
Lakers at Nuggets – The Lakers are 0-8 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since May 05, 2003 on the road with two or more days of rest after a game in which more than 75% of their baskets were assisted. The Lakers are 7-0-1 ATS (5.1 ppg) since December 28, 2008 with two or more days of rest after a game at home in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average. The Nuggets are 0-12 ATS (-9.7 ppg) since March 24, 2000 as a favorite with no rest after a game in which they has more than 10 refereed turnovers. The Nuggets are 5-0 ATS (16.4 ppg) since December 13, 2008 when seeking revenge for a loss as a road dog in which they led by double digits.