Nuggets-Lakers preview
By Matt Fargo
The Betting Numbers
As of this writing, no line has been released but we should expect to see the Lakers favored anywhere from five to eight points and a total well over 210.
2008-09 Season Series
The Lakers won the first two meetings this season, but both of those victories took place in November. The Nuggets gained some revenge with a home win in February as two-point home underdogs.
The Teams
There will be a lot on the line for both teams. Denver is inching closer to winning the Northwest Division for the second time in four years as it has a 2.5-game lead on Portland entering Wednesday night’s home game against Oklahoma City. We will likely see that lead climb to three games or even more as the Blazers visit San Antonio on Wednesday. If it all plays out like it should, the Nuggets can clinch the division and a likely number two seed in the Western Conference playoffs with a win in Los Angeles on Thursday night. The Nuggets and Blazers meet in the season finale but it could be meaningless at that point.
Heading into the game against the Thunder, Denver is riding a seven-game winning streak while also being victorious in 12 of their last 13 games. This is their best stretch of the season and it could not have come at a better time than when the games count the most. Denver is one of only four teams in the Western Conference and just one of seven teams in the entire league that has a winning road record. Being able to win away from home is vital come playoff time and that was something it was unable to do last season, dropping two games against the Lakers, neither of which were even close.
While Denver is playing for the division, the Lakers are playing for possible home court advantage throughout the entire playoffs. Los Angeles trails the Cavaliers by just a half-game for the best overall record in the league but will likely go back to a full game if Cleveland can defeat the Wizards at home on Wednesday night. The Lakers swept the season series with Cleveland so a tie with the same record gives it to Los Angeles. Playing Denver, Portland and Utah in three of the final five games is not easy but two of those are at home where the Lakers are 33-5 on the season.
Los Angeles is playing good but not great as it is 14-6 in its last 20 games since that loss to Denver back on February 27th. The Lakers were dominant early in the season but of these 14 most recent wins, eight of the last 12 have been by single digits including three of the last four at home. With a lot on the line still, it is rather surprising seeing the Lakers squeak by opponents but at the same time, there is no reason to be keeping the starters on the floor for extended periods with the playoffs approaching, The Lakers are just 11-10 against the league’s top ten.
Against the Numbers
Denver is 44-33-1 ATS this season, the best record against the number in the Western Conference and 5th best overall. The Nuggets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games (heading into the Oklahoma City game) and this includes a perfect 4-0 ATS run on the road. Overall the Nuggets are 22-17 ATS on the road but that does drop to 9-9 ATS as a road underdog where they have won only five of those 18 games outright. They are 11-9 ATS playing in the second of back-to-back games and this includes a 5-3 ATS record when going from home to the road.
The Lakers were covering machines to start the season, going 11-6 ATS in their first 17 games but it has been downhill since. Los Angeles did have another nice run in late January and February where it went 10-4 ATS but in the 20 games since then, it is 9-11 ATS including a 2-4 ATS run. Despite the 33 home wins, the Lakers have covered only 17 of those games and they are just 31-37-1 ATS as a favorite on the year. While none of this looks very appealing, Los Angeles has fared better against its own, going 26-22 ATS within the Western Conference.
NBA Today
SCOREBOARD
Thursday, April 9
Denver at Los Angeles Lakers (10:30 p.m. EDT). A meeting between the top two teams in the Western Conference, though it’s a significant gap. The Lakers lead the Nuggets by 9 1/2 games in the conference.
STARS
Wednesday
— Dirk Nowitzki, Mavericks, scored 31 points, with a dozen in a row in one stretch, to help Dallas clinch the final playoff berth in the West with a 130-101 win over Utah.
— Rajon Rondo, Celtics, had 31 points, nine rebounds and five assists to lead Boston past New Jersey 106-104.
— Danny Granger, Pacers, scored 29 points to lead Indiana to a 130-101 victory against Toronto.
— Carmelo Anthony, Nuggets, scored 31 points to help Denver stave off Oklahoma City in a 122-112 victory.
— Steve Nash, Suns, had 24 points and 13 assists, and Phoenix beat New Orleans 105-100.
— Joe Johnson, Hawks, scored 30 points and made a pair of big shots down the stretch for Atlanta in a 113-105 victory against Milwaukee.
STAYING HOME
The Phoenix Suns were knocked out of the postseason for the first time since 2004 when Dallas beat Utah 130-101. The Mavericks became the final team to lock up a spot in the West. For Suns center Shaquille O’Neal, it will be the first time his team has not played in the postseason since his rookie season of 1992-93 with Orlando. Suns All-Star guard Steve Nash last missed the postseason in 1999 with Dallas.
STREAKS
The Cleveland Cavaliers became the first team in NBA history to have two 15-game winning streaks at home in the same season by beating Washington 98-86. If Cleveland can beat Boston (Sunday) and Philadelphia (next Wednesday) in its final two games at Quicken Loans Arena, the Cavs will match the 1985-86 Celtics, whose 40-1 home mark is the league’s all-time best.
SHOOTING
Shaquille O’Neal was 7-of-10 from the field in Phoenix’s 105-100 win against New Orleans, raising his NBA-leading 61 percent field goal percentage for the season. The Suns shot 51 percent (37-of-72) as a team.
SCORING
The Indiana Pacers reached their highest point total of the season and registered their largest margin of victory by beating the Toronto Raptors 130-101.
SEEKING SECOND
The Boston Celtics remained a game ahead of the Orlando Magic in the race for the second seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs with a 106-104 victory against New Jersey. The Magic beat Memphis 81-78. The Cleveland Cavaliers can clinch the best record in the East with one more victory or Celtics loss.
RECORD
Denver (53-26) needs to win two more games to break the franchise record— 54 set in 1987-88—after beating Oklahoma City 122-112. … Kevin Love scored 20 points and had 12 rebounds for his 18th double-double in the last 32 games. The fifth overall pick in the 2008 draft, Love has 28 double-doubles on the season, tops among all NBA rookies. He also moved within two rebounds of breaking the Timberwolves’ single-season rookie record, held by Christian Laetner (708).
PLAYOFF PLANS
The Detroit Pistons pulled into a tie with Chicago for the seventh seed in the East and lowered their magic number to clinch an eighth straight playoff berth to one with a 113-86 victory against New York.
FEELING BETTER
The Cleveland Cavaliers had center Ben Wallace (broken leg) and forward Anderson Varejao (bruised wrist) back in action against Washington. Wallace had been out since Feb. 26. Varejao had missed Cleveland’s previous game.
SPEAKING
“They beat us all night long. They were so much quicker. We looked like we’d been on the road for 10 months. They just destroyed us. They deserved to win because we didn’t make it a contest for them.”—Jazz coach Jerry Sloan after his team lost 130-101 to Dallas to fall into a tie for seventh in the Western Conference.
Double dribble: TNT NBA double header
By JOSH NAGEL
Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls (-6, 202)
Head to head
This will be the fourth meeting this season between the two teams, with the 76ers taking the past two games after dropping the first meeting back in November.
Thaddeus Young scored 31 points to lead the 76ers past the Bulls 104-101 in Philadelphia March 13. Chicago covered the 3.5-point spread on the half-point hook and the total went over the posted number of 201. Derrick Rose led five Chicago players in double figures with 20 points.
In their other two meetings, the 76ers prevailed 103-95 in overtime in Chicago Dec. 2 despite blowing a late lead in regulation and the Bulls took a 103-92 win in Philadelphia Nov. 30.
Young and frontcourt mate Andre Iguodala have given the Bulls fits in their past two meetings. However, Young is questionable for this game with a knee injury. Iguodala has scored 25 points in each of the past two matchups with Chicago.
Both teams preparing for playoffs
The 76ers secured their spot in the playoffs with a 95-90 win over Detroit Saturday. The Bulls appear to be headed toward the postseason but can make things easier on themselves with a win Thursday.
Chicago has won five in a row and 12 of 13 at home and has a half-game edge over Detroit for the seventh playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls also have a three-game lead on ninth-place Charlotte with four games left, including three at home.
“Every win is great for us, because it keeps our confidence going, it keeps our momentum going,” Bulls forward John Salmons told reporters Tuesday. “We definitely want to clinch a playoff spot as fast as possible.”
The Bulls held off upset-minded New York 110-103 Tuesday, while Philadelphia posted a 101-98 loss to the Bobcats.
“Sometimes we have to grind it out, we have to find ways to win, “ Bulls coach Vinny Del Negro told the media after Tuesday’s game. “It’s not always going to be our offense, sometimes it’s your defense. In the fourth quarter, we did that.”
Despite the loss of marquee free agent Elton Brand to injury the 76ers rebounded from a poor start, which cost former coach Maurice Cheeks his job, to secure a playoff berth. Even so, Philadelphia coach Tony DiLeo was disappointed in his team’s performance against the desperate Bobcats.
“We are a team that has to play with energy,” DiLeo said. “In the first half, we let them run their offense the way they do in practice.”
Trends
The 76ers have won and covered five of the past seven times in which they have scored 100 or more points.
The 76ers have failed to cover in six of their past eight road games.
The Bulls have won 12 of their past 13 at home and covered in 11 of those games.
The Bulls have played under in five of their past seven games.
Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers (-8.5, 212.5)
Head to head
This will be the rubber match between the two teams as they split the first two, with Denver taking a 90-79 home win in the last meeting Feb. 27.
Chauncey Billups and J.R. Smith led a balanced attack with 22 points each, while Kobe Bryant scored most of his 29 points in a futile fourth-quarter rally that came up short.
Denver’s win was a needed lift to help quell a dismal recent history against the Lakers. They were routed 104-90 in the first meeting in Los Angeles Nov. 21 and suffered an embarrassing four-game sweep at the hands of the Lakers in the first round of last year’s playoffs.
The Lakers blistered the Nuggets by an average of 13.2 points per game and Denver kept just one game, the fourth and final, to a single-digit margin.
Both teams hot down the stretch
The Lakers and Nuggets each have momentum on their side heading into Thursday’s contest. Denver has won seven straight and 12 of 13, while Los Angeles has won four straight and eight of its past nine.
Denver’s recent run has allowed it to clip San Antonio and take over the No. 2 spot in the Western Conference playoff race behind top-seeded Los Angeles.
Both teams are coming off road wins over lesser opponents, with Denver defeating Minnesota 110-87 Sunday and the Lakers rolling past Sacramento 122-104 Tuesday.
Denver coach George Karl was pleased with what he characterized as a balanced performance.
“We played both ends of the court at a high level,” Karl told the media after the game. “We had different players offensively get hot.”
The Lakers had a similarly solid all-around effort against the woeful Kings, with Pau Gasol leading the way with 26 points and 12 rebounds.
“We finished a lot better,” Gasol said. “We didn’t allow them to cut the lead or make a run like what happened the other night at home.”
Trends
The Lakers have won four straight and eight of nine overall.
The Lakers have played under in eight of their past 10 games.
The Nuggets have covered in seven of their past eight games.
The Nuggets have covered in four straight road games.
PHILADELPHIA (40 - 37) at CHICAGO (38 - 40)
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
CHICAGO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
CHICAGO is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 36-49 ATS (-17.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 6-3 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 6-4 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON (50 - 28) at SACRAMENTO (16 - 61)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 7-2 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 7-2 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DENVER (52 - 26) at LA LAKERS (62 - 16)
Top Trends for this game.
LA LAKERS are 96-82 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 50-34 ATS (+12.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 44-33 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games this season.
DENVER is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
DENVER is 24-15 ATS (+7.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
LA LAKERS are 15-32 ATS (-20.2 Units) in home games second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 10-4 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 10-4 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
10 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA vs. CHICAGO
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games
HOUSTON vs. SACRAMENTO
Houston is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Houston's last 15 games
Sacramento is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Houston
Sacramento is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Houston
DENVER vs. LA LAKERS
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
LA Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
LA Lakers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
Hot Teams
-- Bulls won nine of their last twelve games.
-- Rockets won seven of their last ten games.
-- Nuggets won their last eight games (6-2 vs spread). Lakers won nine of their last eleven games.
Cold Teams
-- 76ers lost last three road games, by 4-29-3 points.
-- Sacramento lost its last five games, failed to cover its last three.
Totals
-- Last three Chicago games stayed under the total; over is 8-4 in 76ers' last twelve games. .
-- Five of last six Sacramento games went over the total.
-- Eight of last nine Laker games stayed under the total.
Back-to-Back
-- 76ers covered four of last five if they play again the next night.
-- Houston is 2-6-1 vs spread the last nine times they had a game again the next night.
-- Nuggets covered three of last four games if they played night before.
PHILADELPHIA at CHICAGO
PHILADELPHIA: 25-10 ATS AWAY off a road loss
CHICAGO: 10-23 ATS against Atlantic division
HOUSTON at SACRAMENTO
HOUSTON: 11-26 ATS after an ATS win
SACRAMENTO: 11-6 ATS after failing to cover 3 of their last 4
DENVER at LA LAKERS
DENVER: 32-20 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 200
LA LAKERS: 4-13 ATS at home after having won 4 of their last 5
Tips and Trends
Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls
76ers: Philadelphia is in danger of losing the sixth playoff spot in the Eastern Conference with a loss here after dropping three straight on the road. The 76ers are 2.5 games ahead in the standing but could see that lead decrease to 1.5 with a loss at Chicago. “We just want to go into the playoffs playing our best basketball,” Philly forward Andre Iguodala said after the team's latest loss at Charlotte. “I think we played great in the second half. We just need to carry that good play into the playoffs."
76ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
The OVER is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Key Injuries - F Thaddeus Young (ankle) is OUT.
PROJECTED SCORE: 96
Bulls (-6, O/U 202): Chicago can clinch a playoff berth with a victory and loss by Charlotte on Friday. The Bulls have made their push for the playoffs thanks to a great run at home, where they have won five straight and 12 of 13. One of the key players who has helped put the team in position is John Salmons, who was acquired along with Brad Miller before the trade deadline. “Every win is great for us, because it keeps our confidence going, it keeps our momentum going,” Salmons said. “We definitely want to clinch a playoff spot as fast as possible.”
Bulls are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games.
The UNDER is 3-0 in Chicago's last 3 games overall.
Key Injuries - F Luol Deng (shin) is OUT.
PROJECTED SCORE: 106 (Side Play of the Day)
Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers
Nuggets: Denver can clinch the #2 seed in the Western Conference playoff race with a victory here and tie the franchise record for wins at 54. “(A win) would be huge, man, especially at this time of the year and for what we’re trying to accomplish,” Nuggets star Carmelo Anthony said. “That would be a big win for us.” Anthony has struggled against the Lakers this season though, averaging just 11.7 points on 27.5 percent shooting.
Nuggets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
The UNDER is 20-8 in Denver's last 28 games as an underdog.
Key Injuries - F Kenyon Martin (ribs) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 99 (UNDER - Total Play of the Day)
Lakers (-8.5, O/U 210.5): LA has won 21 of 23 home games against Denver and hopes to see the return of center Andrew Bynum after he has missed 32 games with a torn MCL in his right knee. “I’m ready to go," Bynum said. "Just waiting on my release. I think (Thursday) is possible.” The Lakers have also won five straight overall and are chasing Cleveland for the top overall seed in the playoffs. The Cavs currently sit one game ahead of LA for home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.
Lakers are 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
The UNDER is 16-5-1 in LA's last 22 games as a favorite.
Key Injuries - C Andrew Bynum (knee) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 108
Thursday NBA Research
By Indiancowboy
Philadelphia vs. Chicago
This game is on TNT. Philly beat this team by 3 points earlier in the year at home as Chicago covered the 3.5 dog tag. Philly also beat this team in OT as well prior to that on the road. So, the new look Bulls have yet to beat the Sixers. The Sixers have covered 4 of 5 but come off back to back SU losses so they will likely be game here. The Bulls have been solid SU at home winning 6 of 8 but not necessarily covered the bigger chalk. If anything, a small lean on the under.
Houston vs. Sacramento
Houston beat this team by 12 and 11 earlier this year but an interesting fact for you is that Sacramento has covered the last 6 times these two teams have met and the last 8 of 10 times these two teams have met . Having said that, the Kings will not have Martin for this game and the Rockets are fighting for playoff position. Nevertheless, if Martin is in I lean a bit on the over, if Martin is out, I lean on the under.
Injuries and Notes:
Chicago: Tim Thomas is Questionable.
Sacramento: Martin is Questionable or Doubtful.
Denver: Martin is Doubtful.
Lakers: Bynum may return tonight.