Game of the day: Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics
By MATT FARGO
Numbers game
Boston is a 1-point favorite with the total set at 196. Boston was favored in its first home game in Game 3 but rolled into the underdog in Game 4. Thursday’s total is the highest seen so far in this series.
Celtics edge
With the upset win in Cleveland, Boston put itself in the driver’s seat. Of the Game 5 winners in the history of the playoffs that took a 3-2 advantage, 83 percent of those teams have gone on to win the series.
The Celtics have done their part in keeping up with this. Boston is 31-1 in playoff series when leading three games to two and on the other side, since the franchise's inception, the Cavaliers have been on the short end of a 3-2 lead in a playoff series four times and all four series ended with the Cavaliers being ousted.
The problem for Boston is that the one series loss took place last season. The Celtics were in a similar situation as they were up 3-2 against Orlando and they had the luxury of knowing a potential Game 7 would be at home. They lost Game 6 in Orlando and then were walloped in Game 7 by 19 points.
Last game at the Q?
In one of the biggest games of the season, LeBron James put up arguably one of his smallest efforts. If the Cavaliers cannot win on the road and extend the series one more game, did LeBron play his last ever home game in Cleveland?
Champions step up when needed and James did not do that when his team needed him the most. He did not score a field goal until midway through the third quarter and looked very disinterested at times. James did nothing on defense and he has forced his team to win again on the road to avoid their season ending sooner than expected.
“I spoil a lot of people with my play,” James said after the game. “When you have a bad game here or there, you've had three bad games in a seven-year career, then it's easy to point that out.”
James was referring to the countless boos he was hit with when the game ended and that could surely sway his decision of whether to stay or go come July 1.
We should expect to see a bounceback effort in Game 6 but we thought the same in Game 5 and that obviously did not happen.
Boston peaking
The Celtics ended the regular season on a 3-7 slide and momentum was clearly not in their corner. However, they have picked it up at the right time as they easily took care of Miami and they have had the upper hand against the Cavaliers.
It comes down to teamwork. Boston has been sharing the ball and making the extra pass when needed. If one player has a bad game, someone else steps up for the Celtics. That is not the case for Cleveland. James has had two bad games in a row but there is no one who is capable of making up for it.
“That’s the beauty of our team,’’ said Paul Pierce. “It makes us so dangerous. When you look at Cleveland, you know you’ve got to stop LeBron. With us, we’ve got four or five guys who can lead us in scoring. You never know where it’s going to come from and that’s what makes us so dangerous — different guys stepping up different nights.”
The Celtics are starting to once again look like the 2008 Championship team and that is bad news for the remaining teams still alive in the playoffs.
Cleveland head coach Mike Brown is unsure how to motivate his team and that is a pretty big problem at this stage of the season.
Home-court, shmome-court
The Cavaliers are coming off their worst ever home playoff loss and it came at the worst time. Cleveland suffered its first home Game 5 loss in franchise history when a series is tied 2-2. Prior to that, the team had been 3-0 in that situation.
That 32-point loss followed an 18-point home loss and putting that into perspective, those losses by a combined 50 points were more than double the total that they were outscored by in the six regular season losses combined (23). Obviously, the Celtics have figured it out.
The Cavaliers went into Boston following that 18-point setback and won by 29 points. The road team has now lost three of the last four games in this series and all three by double-digits so the home floor, usually coveted by most teams this time of year, has not proven to be a factor.
If the Cavaliers continue the road-team dominance, don’t be surprised.
Trends
- Boston is 3-11 ATS in home games after a win by 10 points or more this season.
- Cleveland is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games following a loss.
- Cleveland is 14-4 to the ‘OVER’ in road games revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last three seasons.
- Boston is 17-4 to the ‘UNDER’ after a win by 30 or more since 1996.
Game 6, Cavs at Celtics
By Chris David
In the 1985 NBA Finals, the Boston Celtics destroyed the L.A. Lakers 148-114 on Memorial Day in what many writers dubbed the blowout as the “Memorial Day Massacre” or “Boston Massacre.”
Fast forward 25 years and it seems like the Celtics haven’t missed a beat, especially when you look at what they did to Cleveland on Tuesday. Boston embarrassed the Cavaliers with a 32-point (120-88) road victory, which was the worst-ever playoff loss by Cleveland. Doc Rivers team didn’t need the 7 ½-points given by the oddsmakers, but they did help money-line backers at a 3/1 (Bet $100 to win $300) price.
The Celtics are now one win away from reaching the Eastern Conference Finals for the second time in three years. Boston wasn’t given much of a chance by the oddsmakers or a lot of pundits, including this writer. The Cavaliers were installed as minus-500 favorites (Bet $500 to win $100) in the best-of-seven series and they looked like every bit the part after dismantling Boston 124-95 in Game 3 on the road.
Cleveland owned a solid 2-1 lead after the win and they had a great opportunity to go up 3-1 but the team choked at the end of Game 4’s 97-87 loss. The Cavs trailed 86-84 with a little over four minutes left on the clock before getting outscored 11-3 to close the game.
The Cavs shot 40 percent from the field in the double-digit road loss and that offensive effort carried over to Tuesday’s home setback. Cleveland shot 41 percent in Game 5, compared to a blistering 55 percent from Boston. All five starters for the Celtics were in double figures, led by Ray Allen’s 26 points, 18 coming from 3-point land. Glen Davis also kept the momentum going all night with a big 15 points off the bench as well.
While the Celtics played great, all the talk in the Cavs’ loss was focused on LeBron James. The two-time league MVP had one of the worst outings of his career, finishing with 15 points on 3-of-14 shooting. Some critics said he was disinterested, while others tried to say he was tired. Either way, James is up against the wall and Cleveland fans might have seen him play his last home game in a Cavs jersey.
VegasInsider.com handicapper Kevin Rogers has always believed that the NBA is a team game and Boston is proving that notion again in this year's playoffs. He explained, “The Cavs are proving that teams need supporting casts to be successful in the playoffs, as the Lakers and Magic are looking solid past their respective stars. The Big Three for Boston picked it up in the Game 5 victory, and now you wonder if the Cavs can go back to Beantown and avoid elimination.”
“The clock is ticking on LeBron in Cleveland and I believe its NBA Finals or bust for this team. Assuming the Cavs lose to the Celtics or Magic, LeBron is out of Cleveland. Now it just depends on what his ultimate goals are. If he wants to be on a great regular season team and not win a title, he can stay in Cleveland. If he wants the enormous spotlight of the Big Apple and doesn’t care about a title, he’ll be a member of the Knicks. But, if a title run is on his radar, he’ll join Dwyane Wade in Miami to give himself a great chance at winning a championship.”
Before you start handicapping the Magic-Celtics series, be aware that Boston was in the same exact position last season, when they led Orlando 3-2 in the conference semis. The Magic staved off elimination in Game 6 before stunning the locals at TD Garden in Game 7 with a 19-point (101-82) win to advance.
The oddsmakers had Boston tabbed as a 2 ½-point favorite in the finale against Orlando and it’s favored by one-point over Cleveland in Game 6. The road team has covered three of the first five in this series and the Celtics had a chance to cover in their Game 1 loss (93-101) as 7 ½-point pups.
If you’re looking at a trend angle for the Cavs tonight, then chew on this one from VegasInsider.com handicapper Marc Lawrence.
“One golden rule in this round applies to top seeds, namely: never lay points against No.1 seeds. That’s because inferior teams are just 15-25-1 ATS when laying points into No. 1 seeds since 1996. Worse, if the No. 1 seed is off a SU and ATS loss (Game 5), lower seeded favorites are just 3-10 ATS. And if the lower seeded favorite beat the top seed and covered the spread by nine or more points, they dip to 1-10 ATS (Game 5).”
The total on Game 6 has spiked up to 196, after watching the first five games ranged from 191 to 193. Even though the there was 208 points posted in Game 5, keep in mind that Boston put up 30 points in the third and 40 in the fourth. They couldn’t miss and Cleveland didn’t care to guard them when the game was out of hand. All four totals in the regular season went ‘over’ between the pair and the ‘over’ has gone 3-2 through the first five games in this series but the ‘over’ and ‘under’ has alternated in the best-of-seven, which means you could see an ‘under’ ticket on Thursday. Also, don’t forget that at least one team was held under 95 points or less in all five games so you’re not getting clear-cut shootouts here. More like lopsided affairs that tend to watch the clock tick, tick and tick more.
ESPN will provide national coverage of tonight’s battle, which is set to tip at 8:05 p.m. EDT.
If necessary, Game 7 will be played at Cleveland on Sunday. If the Celtics win tonight, it’s very possible that they will play Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals at Orlando instead of the decisive battle from Ohio.
vegasinsider.com
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Cleveland (6-4, 4-6 ATS) at Boston (7-3 SU and ATS)
The fourth-seeded Celtics will look to finish off the upset of LeBron James and the top-seeded Cavaliers in Game 6 of this best-of-7 conference semifinal series at TD Garden.
Boston manhandled Cleveland on Tuesday night in Game 5, steamrolling to a 120-88 victory as a 7½-point road underdog to move within one game of advancing to the conference finals for the second time in three years. Ray Allen had a game-high 25 points, hitting 6 of 9 from three-point range, Paul Pierce (21 points, 11 rebounds, seven assists) had his best game of the series, and Kevin Garnett chipped in 18 points. The Celts shot a stout 55 percent (44 of 80), making 8 of 15 from beyond the arc (53.3 percent) after going 1-for-14 in a Game 5 win at home.
Cleveland looked nothing like the team that earned the overall No. 1 seed for the playoffs, with James alarmingly ineffective in scoring just 15 points on 3-for-14 shooting and a 9-for-12 effort at the free-throw line. Aging Shaquille O’Neal had 21 points to lead the Cavs, who put just three players in double figures, compared with six for Boston. Cleveland shot 41.8 percent (28 of 68), going 5 of 15 from long distance (33.3 percent), and the Cavs got beat on the boards 41-31. They’ve been outrebounded by a combined 131-96 in their three losses in this series.
The Cavs and Celts split Games 3 and 4 in Boston, with Cleveland rolling 124-95 as a one-point pup last Friday and Boston responding with a 97-87 win Sunday as a 1½-point ‘dog.
Boston now holds a 5-4 SU and ATS edge against Cleveland this season, and the SU winner has covered in all nine games. In fact, the SU winner has cashed in 12 straight overall in this rivalry. The underdog is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four in this series and 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six clashes overall. Also, despite dropping the last two games SU and ATS, Cleveland remains on ATS runs against the C’s of 20-10-2 overall, 8-4 in postseason play and 8-4 at the Garden.
Boston is 28-18 SU but just 16-29-1 ATS in Beantown, where it averages 99.8 ppg (48.6 percent shooting) and gives up 96.2 (45.8 percent). In the playoffs, the Celtics are 4-1 SU and ATS at home. Cleveland is 28-17 SU (24-20-1 ATS) on the road this year (2-2 SU and ATS in the playoffs), averaging 101.7 ppg on 47.6 percent shooting while allowing 97.0 ppg (44.5 percent).
Along with their 7-3 ATS mark in the postseason, the Celtics are on pointspread upswings of 4-0 after a day off, 4-1 at home, 5-2 as a playoff chalk and 17-8 when laying less than five points. Still, Doc Rivers’ troops shoulder negative ATS streaks of 7-15 in second-round play, 3-9 after a SU win, 3-8 after a spread-cover and 11-25 as a home favorite.
The Cavaliers are on a handful of spread-covering slides, including 6-14 overall, 0-6 after a day off, 2-9 against winning teams and 4-10 after a SU defeat. On the flip side, they also carry positive pointspread streaks of 24-7 after a SU setback of more than 10 points, 4-1 after a double-digit home loss, 10-3-1 in second-round play and 8-3-1 as a road pup.
Boston is on “over” sprees of 13-6 overall (6-2 last eight), 7-3 inside the Garden, 9-3 against the Central Division and 6-0 after either a SU or an ATS win. Likewise, Cleveland is on “over” surges of 5-0 after a non-cover, 6-2 in roadies, 13-3 against the Atlantic Division and 4-1 as a playoff pup, though the Cavs also sport “under” stretches of 9-2 as a pup, 7-1 when getting less than five points on the road and 19-8 in second-round games.
Finally, Tuesday’s tilt soared over the 193½-point total, giving the over a 7-2 mark in this season’s nine meetings (3-2 in the playoffs). Furthermore, the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Boston, with only Sunday’s Game 4 contest falling short of the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA Playoff RoundUp For 5/13
By Dan Bebe
Cavaliers @ Celtics - Either Boston by 1 (or Pick) with a total of 196. As noted above, does it end here? I have to say, I thought the Celtics would compete a little bit in this series, but leading 3-2, winning two games in Cleveland, and now sitting in the driver's seat, well, I'm a bit taken aback. But the whole situation is just screwy as heck. Lebron just completely disappearing for the entirety of game 5? Was he "pulling a Kobe" and showing the city of Cleveland how pathetic the Cavaliers are without him? Is he really just hurt and not talking about it? Is Lebron truly as apathetic as he looked? Was Lebron trying to show up his coach, who called out his superstar after the dismal showing in game 2? There are about 15 more questions bubbling up to the surface, most of them about Lebron, that will only be answered after game 6 is concluded and either the Celtics have a date with the Magic, or a date with the Cleveland skyline for game 7. We know the Cavs aren't as bad as we saw, and we know Lebron isn't as bad as he played, but it seems like the Celtics are just gaining confidence every night, and Kevin Garnett already deemed this one "their game 7." I hate to say it, because you guys know how much I love having a take on every NBA game imaginable, but I really don't like this side. Both teams are going to play their butts off, and for whatever reason, I have this odd feeling that the Cavs still win this series, but the Celtics could just as easily clamp down on defense again and make the Cavs look foolish. Yep, you heard right - no leans on the side. The monster 4th quarter in the last game makes me think there may be some value on the Under, here, since I can't imagine another blowout, which should mean that the 4th will get played much more slowly. There may be some free throws at the end, but 65 points? Not likely. I lean Under.
Tips and Trends
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics
Cavaliers: Cleveland is facing pressure like they haven't seen before. People across the country, and even the owner of the team are questioning the Cavaliers and their effort. F LeBron James struggled mightily in Game 5 offensively, and it seemed as if he was disinterested on the court. How else can you explain a 32 point home playoff loss in a pivotal Game 5? Coach Brown really needs to rally his troops, as they are now facing elimination while playing on the road. James could be playing his final game as a Cavalier, and the press is running with this story. C Shaquille O'Neal will look to dominate again, as he was the lone Cavaliers player to play well in Game 5. O'Neal is averaging 11.6 PPG in the playoffs this year, and will attempt to stabilize his team in a must win situation. Cleveland is 67-25 SU this season, the best record in the NBA this year. The Cavaliers are 28-17 SU and 24-20-1 ATS in road games this season. Cleveland is 9-7 ATS as the listed underdog this season, including 6-4 ATS as a road underdog of 3 PTS or fewer. Cleveland is 4-8 ATS after allowing 105 PTS or more in their previous game.
Cavaliers are 2-9 ATS last 11 games vs. a team with a winning SU record.
Under is 8-2 last 10 games as a road underdog.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 95 (UNDER - Total of the Day)
Celtics (-1, O/U 196): Boston is 1 win away from pulling off an improbable upset of the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Celtics were believed to be too old and up against the team with the best record in the NBA and the favorite to win the Championship. Boston has used their experience and the emergence of PG Rajon Rondo to be up 3-2 in their playoff series. The Celtics won Game 5 in blowout fashion 120-88. It was a shocking road win, as Boston scored 70 PTS in the 2nd half. All 5 starters scored in double figures in Game 5, including a game high 25 PTS from G Ray Allen. F Glen Davis also contributed 15 PTS for the Celtics off the bench. Overall, Boston shot 55% from the field and 53% from the 3 point line in Game 5. Allen is leading the team in scoring this year during the playoffs, averaging 18.3 PPG. Allen has made 31 three pointers in 10 playoff games so far. Boston is 57-35 SU and 40-50-2 ATS overall this season. The Celtics are 28-18 SU and 16-29-1 ATS in home games this season. Boston is 3-7 ATS after an upset win as the listed underdog this season.
Celtics are 5-1 ATS last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 6-0 last 6 games following a SU win.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 93
NBA News and Notes
Celtics outscored Cleveland 70-44 in second half of epic Game 5 tank job by Cavaliers; Boston shot 55% for game, with Allen making 6-9 on arc. Celtic starting Gs shot 15-25 from floor, while James was 3-14 and none of his teammates picked up slack. Boston led at half in four of five series games. Interesting that Shaq had 21 points in worst game of year for Cleveland. Not overstating it to say that this game is biggest in the history of Cleveland franchise, not just for this year, but for the future, as far as whether Lebron stays and all that.