Home Sweet Home
By Matt Fargo
The Numbers
The Lakers are anywhere from -7 to -7.5 in this Game 5 which is right around where they were favored by in Game 2 at home. The total sits around 219 which is pretty close to where it has been the last two games. With the first four games of this series going 'over' don’t be surprised to see this number go up.
Home Cooking
Home court advantage is important come playoff time and the home court has been a major factor in this series thus far as the host has won and covered all four games. The margins haven’t even been close which is rather surprising for a conference finals series.
The average margin of victory has been 12.8 PPG while the average cover has been 9.4 PPG so there has not been a lot of sweating taking place for bettors. The home team and the over, an ever popular square parlay, has cashed all four tickets thus far.
This trend has carried over from the regular season for the most part. In the four regular season meetings, the home team went 3-1 straight up and against the spread with the lone blemish being the Lakers winning in Phoenix on Mar. 12 by six points. In total, seven of the last eight meetings have been decided by nine points or more.
Offensive Fireworks
If you like offense, this series has been for you. As mentioned, all four of the series games have surpassed the total with scoring totals of 235, 236, 227 and 221. While the offenses have flourished with the Lakers shooting 53.2 percent and the Suns shooting 48.5 percent, the defenses will be the key going forward.
The Suns have played more zone defense the last two games so the Lakers have now seen it live and on film and have had a chance to practice for it, though Lakers coach Phil Jackson said they knew it was coming before Game 3. Surprisingly, Los Angeles has struggled, if you call shooting 48.8 percent shooting the last two games struggling, because its offense is made to beat the zone.
“The triangle obviously is an overload offense,” Jackson said. “So you basically take a zone into an overload, which is natural anyway. But the idea of the movement that comes out of the overload is important for us. And our movement was poor, was inconsistent.” The advantage goes to Jackson in prepping for Game 5.
Benchwarmers
The Suns bench erupted for 54 points in Game 4 against the Lakers and that type of production will make things very tough for Los Angeles if it keeps up. Both teams are loaded with superstars but it is the reserves on both sides that could very well dictate this outcome and the Suns seem to have the depth edge.
Phoenix’s bench was outscored by the Lakers bench in each of the first three games and by an average of 7.3 PPG but the Suns outscored Los Angeles by 34 points on Tuesday and the five bench players hit a mind-boggling 62.5 percent on 20-of-32 shooting.
“You know, we’re not the most talented team,” Steve Nash said, happily playing up the Suns' underdog status, “but we’ve got depth and we’ve got to make that a staple of our success.” The Phoenix bench did average 30.5 PPG in Los Angeles the first two games so if it keeps that up, depth could reign supreme again.
Injury Concerns
Coming into this series, the big injury concern was on the Lakers side and Kobe Bryant as he is nursing significant knee and finger injuries. It has not affected him so far though as he has been sensational, averaging 33.8 PPG and surpassing 36 points three times.
The time off between the semis and the finals gave Steve Nash time for his eye to heal and open up after the nasty lump he took in Game Four against the Spurs. At the end of Game 3, he broke his nose and his numbers on Tuesday were down as he had a poor shooting night and dished out just eight assists. We will wait and see if the dings were the cause.
The torn meniscus in the right knee of Andrew Bynum is the big issue right now for the Lakers. He did play a series high 25 minutes in Game 4 but he is no where near 100 percent and the Suns need to take advantage. He is well below his scoring and rebounding averages and his mobility issues are hurting Los Angeles on the defensive side.
Jackson Distraction
Lakers head coach Phil Jackson is gunning for his 13th NBA Title, 10 as a coach, which is remarkable when you think about it. His name has been in the news the last few days but for something other than another championship quest.
Jackson is in the final year of his contract and rumors have started swirling. Last week LeBron James was supposedly house shopping in the Chicago suburbs and this week, the rumor has been Jackson heading back to Chicago to coach the Bulls once again and lead another superstar to numerous NBA Titles.
Those rumors were put to rest by Jackson. “I have not entertained any conversations about that right now,” Jackson said. Even though he declared this prior to the Game Four loss, it was smart of him to get it out there because the last thing the Lakers need is another distraction in a series that has turned the other way.
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Phoenix (10-4 SU and ATS) at L.A. Lakers (10-4, 8-6 ATS)
The Lakers return to Staples Center looking to get back on track in the Western Conference finals when they face the revived Suns in Game 5.
After posting double-digit victories in Games 1 and 2 at home, Los Angeles dumped Games 3 and 4 in Phoenix. On Tuesday night, the Lakers fell 115-106 as a 1½-point road favorite, their second consecutive SU and ATS setback after an eight-game winning streak (7-1 ATS). Kobe Bryant piled up 38 points, along with 10 assists, but although he hit 6 of 9 from three-point range, L.A. finished just 9 of 28 from beyond the arc (32.1 percent).
Phoenix won the battle of the benches in Game 3, with its reserves outscoring L.A.’s subs 54-20, though starters Amare Stoudemire (21 points, eight rebounds) and Steve Nash (15 points, eight assists) still led the way. The Suns also posted a huge 53-36 rebounding edge, and Alvin Gentry’s troops hit 22 of 32 from the free-throw line, while L.A. got to the free-throw line just 13 times, making seven.
Los Angeles is still 5-3 SU and ATS in eight meetings with Phoenix this season. The home team has cashed in nine of the last 10 meetings, and the chalk is 4-1 ATS in the last five matchups. These squads also met in the first round in 2006 and 2007, with Phoenix taking both series, rallying from a 3-1 deficit in ’06 while going 4-3 ATS, and rolling in five games in ’07 (2-3 ATS).
The SU winner is 15-1 ATS in the last 16 Lakers-Suns clashes (8-0 this year). Also, the SU winner has cashed in 23 straight games for Phoenix (including all 14 playoff contests), and the SU winner is 12-2 ATS in Los Angeles’ 14 playoff games this year.
Los Angeles is 41-7 inside Staples Center this season, but just 21-25-2 ATS. The Lakers are 7-0 SU (5-2 ATS) at home in the playoffs. Phoenix is 26-22 SU (27-21 ATS) on the highway (4-3 SU and ATS in the postseason).
The Lakers sport positive pointspread streaks of 7-3 overall (5-1 last six) and 5-2 at home (all as a favorite), but they are also 4-13 ATS in their last 17 starts following one day of rest. The Suns are 2-4 ATS in their last five conference finals outings, but the pointspread streaks are all positive from there, including 35-16-1 overall, 6-1 after a SU win, 5-2 as a ‘dog, 20-7-1 after an ATS victory and 36-15-1 after a day off.
Los Angeles is on “over” surges of 10-1-1 overall (7-0-1 last eight), 5-0 at home, 6-1 in the conference finals (5-0 last five), 6-0-1 after a day off and 7-2 as a favorite. Likewise, Phoenix is on “over” stretches of 7-1 overall (5-0 last five), 5-1 in conference finals and 5-1 after either a SU or an ATS win, though the under is 7-3-1 in the Suns’ last 11 roadies.
Finally, the over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this rivalry, including 4-0 in this series, and the total has gone high in 13 of the last 17 clashes between these Pacific Division rivals. Plus, the over has been the play in 10 of the last 13 meetings at Staples Center (including five of the last six).
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS and OVER
NBA RoundUp For 5/27
By Dan Bebe
Suns @ Lakers - Los Angeles by 7.5 with a total of 218.5. I thought maybe we were past this Lakers garbage. It sure seemed like it when they steamrolled through the 2nd round of the Playoffs, jamming on the hapless Jazz in the process. I'll say, Phoenix has some serious heart, but I also think the Lakers just haven't been completely committed to winning on the road in this series. I thought the Lakers would win game 4, definitely not a strong enough lean to make it a play, but I was surprised to see such a weak effort from some of those key guys, especially since they'd had a couple days to prepare for the Phoenix zone. Of course, we saw something similar in, well, almost every Lakers Playoff series against a slightly weaker opponent ever, and if history has taught us anything, it's that the Lakers have a knack for cranking up the intensity in game 5 at home, and that Phil Jackson doesn't lose a playoff series when he wins game 1. This is a pretty hefty line to cover, though, and I have to think this line is high enough that it should split the money relatively well. Some are going to look at the last 2 games and say that the Suns have woken up. Some are going to look at the first 2 games of the series and remark that the Lakers seem to be able to lay a certain smack on the Suns at home, and it's our job to figure out which is true. Based on what we've seen on a nightly basis, I have to think the Lakers get the job done, but this line is going to be pretty accurate. The Lakers are going to make more of those outside shots that weren't falling against the Phoenix zone on the road, and the Suns reserves, who had themselves a case of the epic-fails in LA the first two games, are probably going to go back to struggling, or at least won't perform as well as they did in game 4, where the bench was the difference in the game. And, as we've seen, when a team wins a game in this series, they open up a reasonable lead. It's a tough, one, though, since we can look at game 2, and note that the Suns were right there until a quick burst midway through the 4th quarter put the Lakers up by a sizable number. If not for a very poor 4 minute stretch in that final quarter, that game might have been close, and I suppose there is a certain worry that game 5 could go the same way for the first 40 minutes, and the Suns might make a push at the tail end. Tiny, tiny lean to Lakers, but it isn't going to be easy. And the total came down just a tad, but if we've learned anything, it's that these players will truly go above and beyond to make sure the total goes over every darn time, or at least sets up a middle. But it's just at that moment when no one thinks the game can go Under that a game finally goes Under, and we've seen 2 very fluky games in Phoenix, with, what, 40 combined points in the last 2 minutes of each game? This one ends at 211. Let's put 1/10 of a unit on that to win 7/10 of a unit. Or not. But I do lean Under.
Game 5, Suns at Lakers
By Brian Edwards
Just in time and seemingly from out of nowhere, the 2010 NBA Playoffs are interesting all of a sudden. For that, we salute the Suns, who bounced back from a pair of losses in Tinseltown to even their series with the Lakers by winning Games 3 and 4 at home.
Now the Western Conference finals move back to Staples Center, where Los Angeles (67-29 straight up, 41-52-3 against the spread) will host Phoenix in a crucial Game 5 on Thursday night. Most books are listing Phil Jackson’s team as a 7 ½-point favorite with a total of 217 ½.
Gamblers can back Phoenix (64-32 SU, 58-37-1 ATS) to win outright for a plus-320 return (risk $100 to win $320).
Alvin Gentry’s squad got a monster lift from its bench in the second and fourth quarters, riding the group’s 54 points to beat L.A. by a 115-106 count as a 1 ½-point home underdog.
Channing Frye, mired in a miserable shooting slump going into Game 4, erupted in the second quarter and sparked Phoenix to a 41-32 stanza that left it with a nine-point lead at intermission. Frye finished with 14 points, as he drained four 3-pointers from beyond the arc.
For the game, the Phoenix bench made 20-of-32 shots and 9-of-20 treys. Leandro Barbosa added 14 points, while Jared Dudley scored 11. Amare Stoudemire, who exploded for 42 points in Game 3, had 21 points and eight rebounds on Tuesday night. Steve Nash, playing with a broken nose, didn’t shoot well but was able to produce 15 points, eight assists and four boards.
"Bench play was one key to the Suns' Game 4 victory and they will need that second unit to have to have similar success back in L.A., said veteran VegasInsider.com handicapper Mark Franco, who is No. 1 on VI in the NBA. "To have any chance of beating the Lakers on the road, Phoenix's bench has to produce like that again."
The scary thing for the Lakers is they couldn’t win Game 4 even with Kobe Bryant playing splendidly. Bryant finished with 38 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds. Lamar Odom, who was marvelous in Games 1 and 2 before playing a clunker in Game 3, had 15 points and 10 boards in 35 minutes off the bench.
The Suns failed to cover the number in both Games 1 and 2 in L.A. However, they are 26-22 SU and 27-21 ATS on the road this season.
With that said, L.A. has certainly been in this type of situation before, including its first-round series against Oklahoma City. In fact, the Lakers have won eight straight Game 5’s dating back to a 2007 loss to Phoenix.
The ‘over’ is on a 7-0-1 run for the Lakers in their last eight games. For the season, they have watched the ‘under’ go 49-45-2 overall, 25-22-1 in their home games. Meanwhile, the ‘under’ is 48-45-3 overall for the Suns, 26-20-2 in their road games.
Tip-off for tonight’s Game 5 at Staples is slated for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on TNT.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
With Phoenix leading by nine at halftime of Game 4, most books installed the Lakers as four-point favorites for second-half wagers. This equated to bettors taking L.A. as a five-point underdog. Despite some line value, gamblers taking the Lakers were left ripping up their tickets in the nine-point loss.
Depending on the line and when a total bet was placed, the ‘over’ has cashed in all four games of this series. However, with Game 4 hitting 221 combined points, there were bettors out there who may have pushed on ‘under’ bets or even won if they got the wager in early since a few books were in the 221-222 range on Monday.
After the Game 4 loss, Bryant was in vintage clown mode at the postgame presser. Kobe said, “Everybody wants to talk about the offensive side of the ball, but that’s not what wins championships.” Really, Kobe? Any particular reason why it took you more than 10 years in the NBA before you realized that?
Orlando captured a 109-92 win as a four-point favorite in last night’s Game 5 at Amway Arena. The Magic, who are now down 3-2 in the East finals, have won back-to-back games and appear capable of potentially becoming the first team in NBA history to rally from a 0-3 postseason deficit.
With Glen ‘Big Baby’ Davis and Marquis Daniels sustaining concussions in Game 5, both are very “questionable” for Friday’s Game 6 back in Beantown. Also, Kendrick Perkins was issued a pair of technical fouls and ejected from last night’s Celtics’ loss. Both tech’s were terrible calls and might be rescinded by the league later today. If not, Perkins could be facing a one-game suspension for getting his seventh technical of the playoffs. Last but not least, Rasheed Wallace tweaked his back before fouling out midway through the fourth quarter.
I don’t see Marquis Daniels vacationing in Orlando this summer. First, his stepdad, who was once convicted of second-degree murder and served 11 years in prison, was tasered by police at Game 2 and now Daniels gets a concussion in Game 5.
Zach Randolph had an All-Star season for the Memphis Grizzlies, but it appears he could be in trouble with the law again. Randolph isn't facing charges yet, but he has been implicated in a major drug investigation in Indianapolis.
vegasinsider.com.
NBA News and Notes
Lakers were 8-17/9-16 from arc in first two wins, but went 9-32/9-28 in two losses at Phoenix; they took 25 less FTs in the two losses, and shot under 50% in both road games, after shooting 58% in each of its wins. Gasol was 6-14 in Game 4, after being 32-46 from floor in the first three games. Odom is 10-27 from floor in last two games. Phoenix is 31-96 on arc in series. Phoenix bench woke from its funk, going 20-32 from floor in last game, by far their best effort (Laker bench was 8-26). Suns can't win series until they win game here; they haven't come within 10 points of the Lakers in four games on this floor this season.
Tips and Trends
Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers
Suns: Phoenix was considered all but done in their series with the Lakers after starting the series down 2-0 in their Western Conference Finals clash. However, the Suns won both games at home, and return back to Staples Center all tied up at 2-2. Each team has held serve at home, winning all 4 games thus far. The Suns keep scoring in waves, as we've seen offensive adjustments in the way the Suns attack the paint. F Amar'e Stoudemire had a team high 21 PTS in Game 4, including 12 free throw attempts. Stoudemire attempted 30 free throws in Games 3 and 4 combined. 5 other Suns players scored in double figures in Game 4, including C Channing Frye. Frye finally got out of his shooting slump, as he made 4 three pointers in route to 14 PTS off the bench. F Jared Dudley and G Leandro Barbosa combined to score 25 PTS, including 5 three pointers made. In total, the Suns bench outscored the Lakers bench 54 to 20 in Game 4. Phoenix is 64-32 SU and 58-37-1 ATS overall this season. The Suns are 26-22 SU and 27-21 ATS in road games this season. The Suns are 2-5 as a road underdog between 6.5 and 9 PTS this season. Phoenix is 10-4 ATS in all playoff games this year heading into tonight.
Suns are 10-4 in all playoff games.
Over is 4-0 in the Conference Finals.
Key injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 113
Lakers (-7.5, O/U 218): Los Angeles returns home with their NBA Finals aspirations in doubt. The Lakers lost both playoff games in Phoenix, mostly due to a defense that couldn't contain the explosive Suns. The Lakers allowed the Suns to score 115 and 118 PTS in Phoenix, and G Kobe Bryant is not happy about it. Bryant spoke candidly after Game 4 about what the Lakers needed to do to win this series. Los Angeles really struggled in Phoenix with regards to fouls, as the Suns attempted 41 more free throws than the Lakers in Games 3 and 4 combined. Bryant was brilliant in Game 4, as he scored a game high 38 points, making 15 of his 22 shots including 6 three pointers. F Pau Gasol had his first subpar game, as he only had 15 PTS and 5 rebounds in Game 4. Meanwhile, F Lamar Odom had yet another double double off the bench, scoring 15 PTS and grabbing 10 rebounds. Los Angeles is 67-29 SU and 41-52-3 ATS overall this year. The Lakers are 41-7 SU and 21-26-1 ATS in home games this season. The Lakers are 6-7 ATS as a home favorite between 6.5 and 9 PTS this season.
Lakers are 6-2 ATS against Phoenix at the Staples Center.
Over is 4-0 in Conference Finals.
Key injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 114 (OVER - Total of the Day)