Game of the day: Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic
By Matt Fargo
By the numbers
Orlando opened as 9-point favorites with the total set at 189.5.
We tend to see a Game 2 line go down from the Game 1 line as the oddsmakers bring the number down to offset players taking advantage of a better line for the losing team. That is not the case here and any zig zag bettors have an advantageous number.
Zig or Zag
The Zig Zag Theory was once a very popular betting strategy in the NBA Playoffs but because of its popularity, the markets caught up and since 2000, it has been a losing situational method.
This theory basically used to say to bet the loser of the previous game in the next game but linesmakers have caught up to this rationale in recent years as you will see that the line in the second game is usually lower even if the home team won the previous game in the series.
Orlando is favored by the same number as it was in Game 1, which is uncommon, but it is largely in part due to the Magic winning the first game by 43 points.
The theory was based on betting the desperate team coming off a loss and it is safe to say that the Hawks will be pretty desperate come Thursday. We will see just how desperate sometime around 10:30 p.m. ET.
No rust for the rested
Orlando came into the playoffs riding a six-game winning streak and after sweeping Charlotte, stormed into the Atlanta series on a 10-game winning streak. The problem was that the Magic had to rest for eight days before the Conference Semifinals, but apparently that did not matter.
It took Orlando over a quarter to pull away but when it did, it did so in a big way. The Magic shot 52.4 percent while holding Atlanta to 34.6 percent from the field including 15.4 percent from long range.
The Magic have now won 25 of their last 28 games and could be considered the favorite to win it all right now after this recent run.
The Hawks won the final meeting of the regular season between these two but looking back, it may not have been a total Orlando effort put into that game. Going back to last season, the Magic have won seven of the last eight meetings with five of those coming by at least 17 points.
Blowout bounceback?
Egos are a big part of the NBA and for Atlanta to get absolutely embarrassed Tuesday, the players are going to be out for some revenge.
The last time we saw a beatdown like this, it was New Orleans getting hammered last season in the first round by 58 points. Two nights later, the Hornets lost the next game by 21 points so there was no bounceback there.
Bettors have to try and decipher what the mindset of the Hawks is following that loss.
“Honestly, it would be harder if we lost by one point on a buzzer beater,” Jamal Crawford said. “A game like this, you shake it off and move on.”
I think that is easier said than done and the Hawks history isn’t going to put a lot of confidence in Atlanta backers for Game 2.
The Hawks have played 13 road games the past three postseasons and have lost 11 of them, 10 of which have been by at least 19 points.
Magical confidence
While the Hawks have to try and rebound to avenge that Game 1 loss, Orlando has to be careful and not get over-confident for Game 2 and let the Hawks regain some of their own confidence.
All they had to do is go back to last season and see what the Hawks did.
After losing their first game in Miami in Round 1 by 31 points, the Hawks came back in Game 4 and won in Miami by 10 points two nights later. Head coach Stan Van Gundy shared that with his team and it was a perfect example showing how things can change from one game to the next.
“Every game in the playoffs is a new day, and you can’t get caught up in what’s happened before,” Van Gundy told the media Wednesday.
Even with the blowout win, Orlando cannot afford to hold back anything in Game 2.
Trendy solutions
- The Hawks are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss.
- The Over is 8-0 in the Hawks last eight games following a double-digit loss.
- Orlando is 20-5-1 ATS in its last 26 games as a favorite.
- The under is 15-5-1 in Orlando’s last 21 games when it is favored between 5.0 and 10.5 points.
- The under has come though in six straight meetings.
Hawks at Magic, Game 2
By Kevin Rogers
The Magic pulled out every trick in the book to rough up the Hawks in the series opener of the Eastern Conference semifinals, 114-71 on Tuesday night. Orlando looks to capture a 2-0 series lead at Amway Arena on Thursday, while Atlanta not only looks for a split, but also for some pride after suffering its second-worst playoff loss ever.
The Hawks didn't look too bad after trailing the first quarter of Game 1 by just two points, 25-23. The wheels fell off the wagon soon after as Mike Woodson's team scored just 21 points in the next two quarters combined. Atlanta actually tied the game at 27 following a Marvin Williams jumper, but the Hawks managed only six points in the final ten minutes of the second quarter. The Magic put together a 26-6 run to grab a 20-point halftime lead and never looked back.
Dwight Howard struggled in the Charlotte series due to foul trouble, but the Defensive Player of the Year rebounded nicely in Game 1 with a 21-point, 12-rebound performance to go along with five blocks. For as horrible as the Hawks shot from the floor (34.6%), the Magic were boosted by efficient nights from Vince Carter (7-16 FG, 20 points) and Jameer Nelson (8-12 FG, 19 points).
Al Horford dominated the paint in the Milwaukee series, thanks to Andrew Bogut missing all seven games due to a right arm injury. Things are different now facing the intimidating Howard in the middle, as my colleague Brian Edwards points out, "Horford is a natural power forward who is undersized against just about all centers, but he overcomes that with his muscle, athleticism and work ethic. The problem with defending Howard, however, is that he can match (if not exceed) Horford in all of those departments and then has the size advantage."
Edwards feels if Horford can't slow down Howard, the Hawks don't have many other options, "Zaza Pachulia is also overmatched against Howard, so this forces Woodson to send double-teams against a lethal three-point shooting team. In other words, the Hawks have to pick their poison and hope for the best (Howard foul trouble or poor perimeter shooting by the Magic)."
The Hawks have now gone seven straight games against the Magic scoring 87 points or less, which has translated into six 'unders,' dating back to April 2009. Following Orlando's easy cover as nine-point favorites, the Magic is 7-1 ATS the last eight in this series. Over Orlando's last four home victories against Atlanta, the margin of wins is 43, 18, 32, and 34, an average of 29.2 ppg.
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS and 2-4 SU the last six on the road off a road loss, while going 5-8 ATS on the highway off a defeat this season. Orlando is a solid 8-3-1 ATS and 11-1 SU at home off a win since a ten-point home loss to Dallas on February 19.
Home teams that won the series opener through the first two rounds are 3-5 ATS in Game 2's this postseason, as Atlanta, Orlando, and Boston all covered as home 'chalk' in the second game following a victory in Game 1.
Edwards doesn't see the Hawks turning the corner in Game 2, "Orlando has now blown out Atlanta in four of the five head-to-head meetings. Four of those victories have been by 17 points or more, so you have to wonder where the Hawks' psyche is going into Game 2. Then again, maybe the Magic get too overconfident? But I doubt it."
The Magic is listed as a nine-point favorite once again on Thursday, but Edwards doesn't feel that's enough points, "I'm surprised the oddsmakers haven't made Orlando a double-digit favorite for Game 2. Until we see the Hawks play more unselfishly, there's no reason to think they're going to cover in Orlando. It could be another story back in Atlanta, but I think gamblers have to look to the Magic or pass on the side in Game 2."
The total is set at 189 ½ as ESPN has national coverage of the game tipping off at 8:05 PM EST.
Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood:
Cleveland's rally fell short in the Game 2 loss to Boston as the series shifts to Beantown on Friday. Rajon Rondo is proving that he is an elite point guard in this league, and not just the point guard of the Celtics surrounded by stars. Rondo's 19 assists in Monday's victory tied a Boston playoff record, while six Celtics scored in double-figures. The Cavs are laying one point at most spots in Game 3 on Friday night, as the Celtics are listed as a home underdog in the playoffs for the first time since Game 2 of the NBA Finals against the Lakers in 2008 (C's won, 108-102).
The defending champs have taken the first two games against the Jazz, extending L.A.'s winning streak to 16 games at Staples Center over Utah. Luckily for the Jazz, the series heads back to Salt Lake City on Saturday. The Lakers have now taken a 2-0 series advantage over the Jazz in each of the last three postseasons. However, Utah has found a way to capture Game 3 over the last two seasons, thanks to a pair of single-digit victories at Energy Solutions Arena. The Jazz opened as a four-point favorite, while owning a 14-2 SU and 13-3 ATS as home 'chalk' this season off a loss.
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NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Atlanta (4-4 SU and ATS) at Orlando (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS)
The Magic aim for their sixth straight postseason win and 12th straight victory overall when they square off against the Hawks in Game 2 of their best-of-7 Eastern Conference semifinal series inside Amway Arena.
Orlando, the defending Eastern Conference champion, crushed the Hawks in Tuesday’s Game 1, winning 114-71 as a nine-point home chalk. After a close first quarter, the Magic outscored the Hawks 60-21 in the middle two periods and shot 52.4 percent from the floor for the game with Defensive Player of the Year Dwight Howard leading the way with 21 points, 12 rebounds and five blocks. They limited the Hawks to 34.6 percent shooting and dominated the glass, outrebounding Atlanta 53-35.
Orlando has won four of five SU and ATS this season against the Hawks, and the Magic have won and covered in seven of the last eight meetings dating to January 2009. Additionally, Orlando has won and cashed in five of six at home against the Hawks, including three straight home blowouts: 104-86 as a 5½-point favorite and 113-81 as a 3½-point chalk and Tuesday’s route.
Atlanta is 20-25 SU (24-21 ATS) on the highway this season (1-3 SU and ATS in the playoffs), averaging 97.8 ppg on 45.8 percent shooting, while allowing 98.2 ppg (46.6 percent shooting). Orlando is 37-7 at home (26-17-1 ATS), including 3-0 (2-1 ATS) in the playoffs. The Magic have won 10 straight (7-2-1 ATS) and 16 of their last 17 (12-4-1 ATS) inside Amway Arena.
The Hawks, who were swept out of the Eastern Conference semifinals a season ago by the Cavaliers (0-3-1 ATS), are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven as a playoff ‘dog, but they’re also on ATS surges of 7-4 overall, 11-5 against winning teams, 22-9-1 as an underdog of five to 10 ½ points and 7-4 against the Eastern Conference. The straight-up winner is on a huge 24-0-1 ATS surge in Atlanta’s last 25 playoff games.
The Magic are on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 20-7-1 overall, 6-1-1 at home (all as a chalk), 22-6-1 as a favorite, 9-1 after a straight-up win and 22-6 against Eastern Conference teams.
Atlanta has topped the total in four of six on the road and nine of 12 on the road against teams with a winning home record, but it is on “under” runs of 5-1 after just one day off, 8-2 as a playoff underdog and 20-7 as a ‘dog of five to 10 ½ points. Orlando has topped the total four of seven at home, but it is on “under” streaks of 5-0 in conference semifinal games, 5-1-1 as a playoff favorite, 30-14-2 as a favorite overall and 12-5-1 against Southeast Division rivals.
In this rivalry, the under has been the play in six straight meetings, including all five this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
Are Atlanta Hawks already bad bet?
By Doug Upstone
The source of the question you are about to read might seem a little strange, but it turns out to be exactly correct in breaking down Atlanta and Orlando series. Is the anticipation of some future pleasure better than the actual experience?
Winnie the Pooh posed that question before eating honey and the Hawks of Atlanta are wondering the same thing in saying were looking forward to seeing what we can do in the playoffs against Orlando. After being trounced by 43 points (Atlanta missed a push against the spread by a mere 34 digits) the first thought that comes to mind is really?
Atlanta was actually competitive for the first 12 minutes, trailing only 25-23 and they went into somnolence. The Birds scored a grand total of 21 points in the middle two quarters and gave new meaning to the NBA Playoff slogan Amazing is ?
Coach Mike Woodson could go to Home Depot, buy all the paint his credit card would allow and it still wouldnt cover up this stink bomb.
After a one game reprieve against a Milwaukee club that in all fairness isnt in Atlantas world talent-wise, the Hawks reverted back to being the Hawks on the playoff road. Now 2-11 ATS (aver. loss 19.9 PPG) on postseason excursions, Atlanta showed exactly why they dont belong with NBA elite.
After passing the ball around for a few first quarter assists and buckets, Woodson proved he really has no control of this team as Joe is of Johnson and Jamal shot craver Crawford were a combined 5 for 22 from the field, which is truly amazing.
The Hawks are 4-18 ATS away from home versus good teams outscoring opponents by three or more points a game after the mid-point of the season the last three years and might have to use Dictionary.com to look up the word - team.
Josh Smith was the only player that had a descent stat sheet with 7-14 shooting and three steals, but he took silly fouls and continues to play street ball on an NBA court. In his defense, just think what Atlanta would have shot (they were 34.6 percent) for game if Smith had not made half his shots?
Dwight Howard only played just over 28 minutes, but this time it wasnt because of foul trouble, it was because it was a total demolition by Orlando.
Howard had 21 points, 12 boards and five blocks and the only word that came to mind watching Al Horford and Zaza Pachulia trying to stop Superman was helpless. In fact, the Atlanta big men really wanted so little to do with Howard he couldnt find enough of their players to commit his usual three or four reckless fouls.
Oddsmakers like those at BetUS.com cant overreact to 43-point cave-ins and the Hawks are nine-point underdogs, with total of 189.5. Maybe a hug and drinking from their favorite sippy-cup will make Atlanta feel all better and even after being throttled; they are 8-1 ATS after scoring 85 or fewer points.
Coach Stan Van Gundy probably wouldnt mind a competitive contest, since it appears the next round could be coming soon and his team is 29-12 ATS after playing a home game this season. Orlando is 30-14 UNDER after scoring 110 points or more and the unimposing Hawks are 20-7 UNDER revenging a road loss of 10 points or more.
Stayed tuned to TNT at 8:00 Eastern to witness the next massacre or if Atlanta can really play with heart, for a change.
Tips and Trends
Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic
Hawks: Atlanta continues to frustrate their fans and organization with their Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde type performances. Atlanta is one of the most talented teams in Basketball, yet they consistently under-perform. Many experts question the heart and motivation of this team, which is a question to Coach Woodson. The Hawks were dominated in Game 1 against the Magic, and combined to score only 21 PTS in the 2nd and 3rd Quarter combined. F Josh Smith led the team with a paltry 14 PTS. Atlanta shot 34% from the field, including only 2 for 13 from the 3 point line. The Hawks played so terribly that they had more turnovers than assists as a team, 15 and 12 respectively. 4 different Hawks players average double figures in scoring this postseason, and the Hawks will need a similar effort tonight to be competitive. G Jamal Crawford is typically the catalyst offensively for the Hawks, as he comes off the bench to average 14.5 PPG this post-season. Atlanta is only 20-25 SU and 23-21-1 ATS in road games this season. The Hawks are 3-1 ATS as a road underdog between 6.5 and 9 PTS this season.
Hawks are 0-6-1 ATS last 7 playoff games as an underdog.
Over is 8-0 last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 95
Magic (-9, O/U 189.5): Orlando hadn't played in more than a week when they suited up for Game 1. Some would argue the Magic played in nothing but a scrimmage in Game 1, as they won by 43 PTS. The Magic dominated the entire game, as they won every single quarter. The Magic had 4 players score in double figures, despite no player playing more than 28 minutes. C Dwight Howard had a team high 21 PTS and 12 rebounds in Game 1. The Magic shot 52% from the field, and looked like the best team in the NBA. Many experts think the Magic are playing the best basketball of any team in the playoffs, as they are the lone team that has yet to taste defeat this postseason. Orlando is 64-23 SU and 50-35-2 ATS overall this season. The Magic are 37-7 SU and 25-17-2 ATS in home games this season. Orlando is 44-30 ATS as the listed favorite this year. The Magic are 23-17 ATS against teams that average more than 99 PPG this year. PG Jameer Nelson is still leading Orlando in scoring during the playoffs, averaging 22.8 PPG while shooting better than 51% from the field.
Magic are 4-0 ATS last 4 playoff games as a favorite.
Under is 6-0 last 6 vs. a team with a winning SU record.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 102 (OVER - Total of the Day)
NBA News and Notes
Orlando won four of five games against the Hawks this year winning by 17-32-18 in regular season, before pounding Atlanta 114-71 in Game 1, as Magic embarrassed Atlanta in middle two quarters, outscoring them by 60-21 margin, Four of the five games stayed under the total. Magic are 5-0 in playoffs, with only one of the wins by less than eight points. Hawks lost three of their four playoff road games. After drubbing their opponent in Game 1, odd kind of pressure on Magic for a short series.