Game 4 Breakdown
By Matt Fargo
The Numbers
The Celtics are -3.5 for Game 4 of the NBA Finals over the Lakers. Game 3 saw the closing line of Boston -2.5 and this game opened at -3 so it is right in line of where it should be. The total is at 190.5 which is a point less than the Game 3closing total. Through three games the total is 1-1-1 or 2-1 to the ‘Under’ depending on where and when Game 1 was bet.
Schizo-Allen
He giveth and he taketh away.
After Ray Allen broke the NBA Finals record with eight three-pointers in Game 2, including seven straight makes, he nearly broke another record in Game 3. And it was not his own. He went 0-13 from the floor, including 0-8 from behind the arc, which came close to the 0-14 mark set by Dennis Johnson in 1979 and Chick Reiser in 1948.
How does this happen? Allen is one of the best shooters in the history of the league so his record performance last Sunday was not a total surprise. His dubious game on Tuesday was a surprise however. Had he even been a little below average and the Celtics probably would have won Game 3.
Despite being 0-12, Allen showed he still had confidence as he put up a long ball with under a minute remaining and Boston trailing by four points. It clanged off the rim and that was it.
“It's a hell of a swing, I'll tell you that,” Boston head coach Doc Rivers said. “It's basketball. That's why you can't worry about it. He'll be back in the gym [Wednesday] and getting ready for the next game. I thought he was pressing early on some of them, and, honestly, I thought all of his shots looked flat tonight.”
47-0? Who Cares
By now everyone has heard about Phil Jackson and his remarkable record when winning the first game of a playoff series. Including the Lakers in their three prior series this year, Jackson-coached have never lost a playoff series after winning the first game as they are a perfect 47-0 between the Bulls and Lakers.
As gaudy as that sounds, while some may be impressed, I am not 100 percent sold on it and here is why. When looking at the other 252 series that Jackson was not part of, the team that won Game 1 went on to win the series 199 times or 79 percent. Take that 79 percent and apply it to Jackson and his record in those series should be 38-9.
That is an additional nine series that were won over the rest of the league but you also have to take note of the teams that he was coaching and how great they were. How great? None of his teams that won the NBA Championship dropped a single playoff series whether or not they won Game 1.
Therefore, while many are concluding the Celtics are done, I say they are not. The series price right now is Boston +270 to +310 most everywhere and that is tremendous value with two games still coming up at home.
Kobe or Fisher
Kobe Bryant was more like himself in Game 3 as he put up and made some big shots in leading the Lakers with 29 points. He was almost a non-factor in Game 2 so because of the results on Tuesday, he is hailed as once again being a clutch player. Well, he isn’t and there is proof of it.
He went 10-29 from the floor in Game 3 and that is the furthest thing from clutch. Any player is going to score than many points and lead the team in scoring by putting it up way more than twice as much as the next closest player in attempts. The real proof is what player is the best when the game is on the line.
According to 82 Games, Bryant is fourth in the league in total game-winners hit but he holds the top spot in a less glamorous category - the most game-winning opportunity missed shots. In total, he has made only 25 percent (14-56) of his game-winning shots. He certainly has an overblown reputation when it comes to the clutch shot.
There are four players in this series with better game-winning percentages that should be looked at first. Ray Allen (15-39 for 38.5 percent), Paul Pierce (11-32 for 34.4 percent), Pau Gasol (9-18 for 50 percent) and Derek Fisher (8-20 for 40 percent).
Fisher is known for his clutch performances in tight situations. From his shot with 0.4 seconds left to beat San Antonio in the 2004 playoffs to his game 4 performance in last season’s finals where he hit key shots in the pivotal game to give the Lakers the win, Fisher has seen and done it all. In Game Three, 11 of his 16 points came in the fourth quarter including some real clutch shots.
Must Win Time
While stated earlier that the Celtics are far from dead, this is a very important time. The value is still in their corner but the time is dwindling. A loss in Game Four means they would have to win out the series to win the championship and that means two final games in Los Angeles. It can be done but it is something Boston does not want to have to do.
Recent history is on the Celtics' side as they trailed the Cavaliers 2-1 in the second round but came back to win the next three games. Past history is not on their side however. Since the Finals went to a 2-3-2 format in 1985, there have been 10 previous instances of a series being tied 1-1. In all 10 cases, the Game 3 winner went on to win the title.
Boston is well aware of this fact but like the Jackson streak, the Celtics could care less. As Tony Allen said, this Celtics team is about living in the present, not the past. “Let me tell you this,” Allen said. “This team is in the present right now; we're not worrying about what went on previously, not worried about the stats about who wins the third game and all that. We're worried about the next game, and that's our focus.”
Game 4 is then a must win spot for the Celtics but we need to take the line into consideration. With it being close to the same as the line from Game Three, the linesmakers have not made the overadjustment of the “must win” team being overpriced. The thinking is relatively simple because the higher that line gets, the more action will come in on the publicly loved Lakers.
Trends
The Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss.
The Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last six playoff games as an underdog of fewer than five points.
The ‘Over’ is 7-1-2 in Lakers last 10 games following a straight up win.
The ‘Over’ is 35-16 in Celtics last 51 games following a straight up loss.
The Celtics are 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
Game 4, Lakers at Celtics
By Chris David
Does Boston face a must-win spot in Game 4?
When you consider that most would believe a 3-1 deficit is nearly impossible to overcome in a best-of-seven series, it’s safe to answer yes. The sportsbooks and betting public tend to agree with the Celtics’ sense of urgency and the tote board was adjusted accordingly.
A few major offshore outfits opened Boston as a three-point favorite for the fourth installment and the number quickly moved to 4 before settling back down to 3 ½.
After capturing Game 2 in Los Angeles and knotting up the series at 1-1, a lot of pundits expected Boston to continue its strong effort after watching its solid performance on the West Coast. Unfortunately for the Celtics, they didn’t play their best game on Tuesday and they wound up losing Game 3 to Los Angeles, 91-84.
The Lakers led 26-17 after the first and 52-40 at the break, covering numbers in both sessions. Boston closed the 12-point margin to six after outscoring the Lakers 21-15 in the third but L.A. fought back with a 24-23 effort over the final 12 minutes. The Celtics did cover the number in the second-half as four-point favorites, thanks to a meaningless layup by Paul Pierce, the only play some Boston fans cheered him for the entire night.
The Celtics got as close as one point on a couple occasions in the fourth but could never tie or take the lead over the Lakers. Los Angeles’ final nail in the coffin was a driving layup by Derek Fisher, who converted a foul shot on the play as well. The lead went to seven and the Celtics had a chance to cut it to three but Kevin Garnett made a blatant offensive foul on a pick and possession changed. Four straight free throws sealed the win for the Lakers and it also meant the series won’t end in Boston.
Neither the Lakers (44.7%) nor the Celtics (43.8%) shot extremely well from the field but Phil Jackson’s team managed to hit 21-of-24 (88%) free throws while the Celtics converted just 67% (16-of-24) from the stripe. A lot of fingers were pointed at Boston’s Ray Allen in Game 3, who went 0-for-13 from the floor in the loss, including 0-for-8 from downtown. His poor performance from the field almost earned him a NBA finals record, which is ironic since he set one in Game 2 with eight bombs from 3-point land. Those betting player props at Bodog.com may’ve noticed Allen’s point total was sitting at 18 for Game 3, which was never threatened.
Allen’s two points definitely stood out in the box score, but so did Paul Pierce’s performance. Pierce was plagued by foul trouble and finished with 15 points in 5-of-12 attempts. After putting up 24 points in Game 1, half coming from free throws, Pierce has put up 10 and 15 in the last two games. Rajon Rondo played okay (13 points, 8 assists, 6 rebounds) but Boston needs him to be the best player on the court and he was far from that on Tuesday. That honor went to Kevin Garnett, who finished with a series-high 25 points.
Despite the solid play from Boston’s frontcourt, the team couldn’t handle the Lakers’ backcourt. For the second time in this series, Kobe Bryant led all scorers with 29 points. Bodog.com had Kobe’s point total at 28 ½ and he cashed the ‘over’ with a pair of late free throws. While Bryant was taking the most shots, it was Fisher who made the biggest ones. Fisher scored 11 of his 16 in the final quarter and continues to be a big factor on the road in this year’s playoffs. In the Lakers’ nine road tilts, Fisher has posted double figures eight times.
Along with Fisher, Lamar Odom finally came to play. Odom hit all five of his shots from the floor and finished with 12 points. Ron Artest got into early foul trouble and only finished with two points. Pau Gasol (13 points) and Andrew Bynum (9 points) didn’t receive as many looks with the offense focusing on Kobe and Fish but both players grabbed 10 boards a piece.
Looking ahead to Thursday’s clash, you can look at the contest a few different ways but Vegasinsider.com handicapper Brian Edwards believes we’ll see this series get even.
“I think Boston bounces back to win and cover in Game 4. When coming off an outright loss in the postseason this year, the Celtics have compiled a 5-1 record both straight up and against the spread. The Lakers came to Beantown knowing they had to get at least one, and they’ve got it already. With that in mind, there’s bound to be somewhat of a slip in focus and intensity. On the other hand, Doc Rivers and company know how paramount it is to get a victory in Game 4,” explained Edwards.
Boston has only lost back-to-back games once during the postseason and that happened in the Eastern Conference Finals against Orlando after building a 3-0 lead. The Celtics have not dropped two in a row at TD Garden in this year, posting a 7-3 mark through 10 games.
The win in Game 3 improved the Lakers’ road playoff record to 5-4 both SU and ATS. Those expecting another victory for Los Angeles in Game 4 can take generous money-line odds of plus-145 (Bet $100 to win $145).
The oddsmakers have been spot-on with the totals in this series and even though Game 3 never threatened the closing number (191), the pace was what you’ve expected for a game played in the low nineties. Plus, the free throws continue to help the scoreboard operator. The total for Game 4 is still hovering between 190 and 191, similar to the first three games. Make a note that seven of Boston’s 10 home playoff games have gone ‘under’ the number.
After tonight’s tilt, the two teams will catch two days of rest before meeting in Game 5 on Sunday. ABC will provide coverage of the opening tip at 9:05 p.m. EDT.
vegasinsider.com
NBA Finals RoundUp For 6/10
By Dan Bebe
Lakers @ Celtics - Boston by 3.5 with a total of 190. This line hasn't moved much since it opened. The total appears to have crept up a half point at about half of books, but that's it. So, no big early move. From a pure line-reading standpoint, you have to think that the total tells us almost nothing, other than that oddsmakers want to keep splitting that money, and the best way, right now, appears to be splitting the public dollar. They got split action at 192.5 in the last game, the game went way Under the mark (whoopee!), so they adjusted. Simple. The side, on the other hand, shows a decided advantage to Boston, really, for the first time this series. Oddsmakers didn't really touch the line between games 1 and 2 despite the Lakers beating the spread by a good 6-7 points. Now, in the other venue, the Lakers are getting an additional point against the line despite winning outright as a 2.5-point underdog, and really leading the entire game, aside from the first 4-5 minutes. If you're going on line alone, you're probably playing Boston. But what about match-ups? Well, we saw the grand awakening of Kevin Garnett in game 3. Officials started to ease up a little on Garnett's minor pushes and grabs on defense, and as a result, he was able to get into a rhythm. Of course, Ray Allen went MIA, and the Celtics really needed something from the perimeter, with Paul Pierce still unable to get it going against Ron Artest (who, in the pun of the day, is all "brick" since game 1 -- his shots are bricks, and his torso is clearly a brick...). Moving forward, I think the refereeing in game 3 is more what we'll see in the next few games. Both teams seemed to be a little less irked, the game had a little more flow (even if defense ruled the day), and fans got to see superstars on the court, not the bench. On top of that, I think Garnett comes back with another decent game after sleeping in his own bed and practicing/getting medical attention in those familiar surroundings. I think Pierce continues to struggle - he's not just "off", he is getting shut down. I think Ray Allen comes back with a more average performance, and Rondo keeps playing well. On the Lakers side, more of the same - Kobe will take a ton of shots, Gasol will probably be the best player on the floor, and Bynum will continue to slow a tiny bit with every passing vertical leap. Derek Fisher was a rock in game 3, but he won't play quite that well, again. And finally, situationally, I don't think there's a clear edge in either direction. The Lakers are definitely "awake" for this series, and the Celtics know they can't afford to go down 3-1. Situationals are basically a wash, though I guess you might say Boston needs this one, and the Lakers are going to go for the jugular, so which is more powerful? No matter how you shake things out, Kobe is going to be scary in this one, but Boston's defense was excellent in game 3, and they just couldn't score. I'm ready for some basketball.
NBA News and Notes
Road team is 3-2 in Laker-Celtic games this season; key in the last two games is whose bench prevails; LA was +14 with Odom (5-5 from floor in Game 3) on floor last game, +13 with Walton. Wallace was -10 in his 18:40 on court for Celtics. After making NBA-record eight treys in the Game 2, Allen went 0-13 from floor in Game 3. Bryant was 10-29 last game, take numerous hideous shots in second half. If Lakers get ball to Gasol/Odom more, they'll be more successful. Since 1985, when Finals series was 1-1, ten teams that won Game 3 all won that series. Rondo's assist number is the key; Celtics rarely lose when he gets 10+ assists; he's had eight assists in both Laker wins in this series.