Game of the day: Celtics at Lakers
By Matt Fargo
The numbers
The Lakers are set as 7-point favorites for Game 7of the NBA Finals. Game 6's closing line was Los Angeles -6 and this game opened at -6.5, so the number is being shaded toward the favorite. The total is at 187, which is the lowest number in this series and for good reason. The under is 5-1-1 and in some cases 6-1 with four straight coming in.
Another blowout?
For a series that has gone the distance, it hasn’t been very entertaining.
The smallest margin of victory has been seven points - a 96-89 Boston win in Game 5 - while the average margin of victory has been 10.7 points per game. You would think that the finals would produce more close finishes and important last-second possessions, but that has not been the case.
What does this mean for Game 7?
It means we are overdue for a fantastic finish. The entire 2010 playoffs owe us as from the start, as it has been pretty much a dud. Who knows if we will actually get it but if you like playing the odds of it happening, you have to like the Celtics to bounce back from a dreadful Game 6.
Looking purely at probabilities, Boston has a 75 percent chance of covering based on the four different outcomes that can take place. If we do see a blowout, the Lakers or Celtics can be on the winning side, therefore a split cover. Should we see a close game, the Lakers or Celtics can again be on the winning side outright but the Celtics would cover in both instances.
Rebounding
When it comes to winning basketball games, any number of factors comes into play such as shooting, turnovers and free throws. In this series, the biggest factor has been rebounding.
The winning team has had the edge on the glass in all six games so far. The average margin of the boards per game is 7.1, so it is safe to say who wins the battle of the boards in Game 7 will be the NBA champion.
If only it were that easy. The issue now is injuries. The Lakers have had a hobbled Andrew Bynum throughout the series, so the inside advantage they were thought to have heading in ended up being negated. The Celtics have their own problems now that Kendrick Perkins sprained his knee in Game 6 and is doubtful for the season finale.
“He’s a guy that cleans the paint up, let’s say, and not having him there made the Lakers awful long,” Celtics head coach Doc Rivers told reporters. “He's one of our guys that I think gives us great spirit, gives us a lot of toughness and size. You know, I hope he can play. It would be tough if he can't.”
Game 7 history lesson
Only 16 previous NBA Finals have gone to a decisive Game 7 and it has happened only three times since the Lakers and Celtics went the distance in 1984.
Home-court advantage is obviously big now when it comes to the decisive game and history definitely proves that. Overall, the home team has won 13 of 16 Game 7s in the NBA Finals. Tightening that up, since the 2-3-2 playoff format of the NBA Finals was instituted in 1985, there have been three Game 7s and the home team has won all three.
Those three wins were by an average of only 5.3 points per game.
While players and coaches will be treating this game like all others, it is not the same and there are some big names that have never experienced this. This is the first NBA Finals Game 7 for Kobe Bryant and Derek Fisher, who have played in 393 combined playoff games. Maybe most surprising, neither has Phil Jackson, who has coached in 322 postseason games and won 10 championships.
The 2010 Finals will be the fifth Lakers-Celtics series to go seven games and in the previous four instances, the Celtics have beaten the Lakers by an average of just four points a game.
Kobe’s legacy
Kobe Bryant is a future Hall of Famer and one of the greatest players to ever step on an NBA floor. This Game 7 could go a long way in determining exactly where he ranks.
As mentioned, he has never played in Game 7 in the NBA Finals. But neither did Michael Jordan. Therefore, winning a championship in a decisive Game 7 will give Bryant an additional stat that Jordan does not have on his résumé. A win would also give Bryant his fifth NBA title, tying him with Magic Johnson and trailing Jordan by only one.
Should the Lakers lose, Bryant will have gone down three times compared to Jordan having never lost when going to the NBA Finals. It many not seem like much but it is a pretty big difference and one that Bryant will be compared to forever.
While this game will determine where Bryant currently ranks among the best ever, he isn’t taking it any different.
“It's no different to me,” he told the media. “I don't mean to be a buzz kill, but it's not. I know what's at stake but I'm not tripping. It's a game we've got to win, simple as that. I'm not going crazy over it.”
Trends
- The Celtics are 7-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss.
- The Lakers are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following an ATS win.
- The Over is 13-6 in the Celtics last 19 games following a double-digit loss.
- The Over is 7-2-2 in the Lakers last 11 games following a straight up win.
- The Celtics are 12-5-1 ATS in the last 18 meetings.
Celtics at Lakers - Game 7
By Kevin Rogers
For the first time since 2005, the NBA Finals will see a Game 7 after the Lakers rocked the Celtics on Tuesday night. Los Angeles wasn't ready to have its season end as the defending champs beat down Boston, 89-67 in Game 6, easily covering as six-point home favorites. These two rivals get together on Thursday night for the last game of the Finals at Staples Center, trying to win a title and solidify legacies.
The Celtics shot a blistering 56% from the floor in the Game 5 victory, but things changed drastically for Doc Rivers' team in the Game 6 embarrassment by shooting only 33% from the field. Boston's big four combined for 75 points in Game 5, while totaling 54 points in Tuesday's loss. The Lakers didn't shoot great in Game 6 (41%), but jumped out to a 51-31 halftime lead and never looked back. Boston got to the free-throw line 10 times in Game 6, while getting outrebounded by Los Angeles, 52-39, the first time in the series either team has grabbed at least 45 rebounds in a game.
Kobe Bryant continued to carry the Lakers with his 26-point, 11-rebound effort on Tuesday, his 17th straight game with at least 20 points. Pau Gasol put together his fourth double-double of the series by scoring 17 points and pulling down 13 boards, redeeming himself for a less than stellar effort in the 2008 NBA Finals. Lamar Odom stayed out of foul trouble and contributed with eight points and 10 rebounds, while Ron Artest tied his series-high with 15 points in Game 6.
Boston had plenty of problems shooting in Game 6, but it was a complete team effort with Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, and Kevin Garnett combining to go 17-43 (39%). Ray Allen led the C's with 19 points (7-14), while Rasheed Wallace failed to register a point on 0-7 shooting from the field. It didn't help matters either for the Celtics when center Kendrick Perkins was lost for the game in the opening quarter with a knee injury. Perkins' status for Game 7 is 'doubtful,' but we'll see if the big man gives it a go to provide Boston some much-needed bulk in the middle.
Phil Jackson has led his teams (Bulls and Lakers) to 13 Finals appearances since 1991, and this is the first time his club will play in a Game 7 of the NBA Finals. There have been just two Game 7's in the last 20 seasons in the championship round, with the home team winning each time (Houston, 1994 and San Antonio, 2005). Only 21 teams have picked up road victories in Game 7 of the playoffs all-time, with the last occurrence coming last season when Orlando won at Boston in the second round, 101-82.
The Lakers closed out the Rockets in a Game 7 blowout, 89-70 in last season's second round at home. Under Jackson, Los Angeles is 3-1 in Game 7's, with the lone loss coming in the first round at Phoenix in 2006. The Celtics have played in four Game 7's in the Rivers era, with all four games at home. Boston eliminated Atlanta and Cleveland in 2008, before disposing of Chicago in the first round of the 2009 playoffs. The only blemish on Boston's record in this span was the 19-point defeat to Orlando in last season's conference semifinals.
My colleague Chris David points out that the Celtics own a dreadful 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS mark in close-out games on the road since their 2008 championship season. The sole victory came at Detroit in the Eastern Conference Finals in 2008, as the Celtics outscored the Pistons, 29-13 in the final quarter to win their first conference championship since 1987.
The 'under' has hit in each of the last four games in this series, and would be 5-1 if not for Bryant's late three-pointer to put the finishing touches on a 102-89 victory in Game 1. Boston is 6-4-1 to the 'over' on the road in the playoffs, while L.A. is 6-4-1 to the 'over' at Staples Center in the postseason. The Lakers are 3-0-1 to the 'under' in close-out games of the playoffs, while compiling a 4-0 ATS mark in potential series clinchers.
Los Angeles is listed as a seven-point favorite in most spots, while the total is set at 187. The game tips off at 9:05 PM EST, with the game nationally televised on ABC.
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Tips and Trends
Boston Celtics at Los Angeles Lakers
Celtics: Boston is getting their 2nd chance to win the NBA Championship this year. They certainly are hoping their 2nd opportunity will go better than their 1st chance. The Celtics were blasted in Game 6, as they lost by more than 20 PTS. In fact, Boston trailed by double digits for nearly the entire game. Boston is a veteran group, so they know how to bounce back from an embarrassing loss. They are a perfect 4-0 ATS after losing by double digits this season. Boston needs to improve on their offensive play, as they only made 28 field goals for the entire game. Even worse, the Celtics attempted only 10 free throws in Game 6. Boston needs to be much more aggressive in Game 7, and force the Lakers into playing a more uptempo game. Boston will have to play without the services of defensive stalwart Kendrick Perkins. G Ray Allen was the only Celtics player to score more than 13 PTS, as he had a team high 19 PTS. Boston only had 13 bench PTS in Game 6, so they were missing passion through their entire roster. Boston is 65-40 SU and 48-55-2 ATS overall this season. The Celtics are 32-20 SU and 27-24-1 ATS in road contests this season. Boston is 3-2 ATS as a road underdog between 6.5 and 9 PTS this season.
Celtics are 4-0 ATS last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games after scoring less than 75 points in their previous game.
Key Injuries - C Kendrick Perkins (knee) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 97
Lakers (-7, O/U 187): Game 7 is here, and Los Angeles wants to exact some revenge in front of their home fans. After losing to the Celtics a few years ago in the Finals, the Lakers have lived with that loss. Los Angeles is also attempting to repeat as NBA Champions tonight. The Lakers dominated the Celtics in Game 6, ultimately winning 89-67. Los Angeles was up by 20 PTS at halftime, as they won each of the 1st two quarters by 10 PTS. G Kobe Bryant led the Lakers with a game high 26 PTS, while also grabbing 11 rebounds. F Pau Gasol had 17 PTS and a team high 13 rebounds in Game 6. F Ron Artest even got in the mix offensively, as he made 3 three pointers in scoring 15 PTS in Game 6. The Lakers bench outscored the Celtics 25-13 during Game 6. What ultimately won the game for the Lakers was the defensive intensity they played with. The Lakers held Boston to only .333% shooting, and only allowed Boston to score 67 PTS overall. Los Angeles has been so dominant at home, as they are 44-8 SU this year. The Lakers are 72-32 SU and 45-56-3 ATS overall this season. The Lakers are 6-8 ATS as a home favorite between 6.5 and 9 PTS overall this year. Los Angeles is only 2-9 ATS after allowing 85 PTS or fewer in their previous game.
Lakers are 5-2 ATS last 7 games as a home favorite.
Under is 4-0 last 4 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%.
Key Injuries - C Andrew Bynum (knee) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 98 (OVER - Total of the Day)
NBA RoundUp For 6/17
By Dan Bebe
Celtics @ Lakers - Los Angeles by 7 with a total of 187. I have two takes on this game, so bear with me. Of course, they're something of opposing sides, so let's just attack them one at a time, and see where we all sit. First, the line. This one opening a half point higher than the last game is a pretty strong statement that the Lakers are going to get some cash, and more than game 6. Going into game 6, everyone had seen Boston rattle off 2 wins in a row at their place, and oddsmakers actually had to put some value on LA, but now, off the blowout win, this line is going to be much closer to where it should be for a pivotal game 7, adjusted slightly, of course, for the injury to Kendrick Perkins. His loss won't move the line much, but we might have seen Lakers by 6.5 again if he was healthy. The total of 187, lower than game 6, supports another physical game, and the only reason I wouldn't put my house on the Under is because this one, in my opinion, has a better-than-average shot to go to overtime, and on top of that, no one is going to let the Championship slip away without some furious fouling down the stretch. We might see a hack-a-Rondo with 2 minutes to go if the Lakers are down, and I actually think LA could gain ground trading 2-for-1 on every possession. On the other end, the Celtics would be hoisting threes, and trying to foul Odom or Artest, and we could legitimately see 25 points scored in the final 2-3 minutes, and another 15 if the game goes to OT. I would be very careful with the total in this one, and might recommend playing a 1H total if you like the Under, and maybe keep an eye on that 2H line after the 1H gets played. As far as the side goes, I would have expected the line to actually dip or stay the same given the magnitude of this one, but the Lakers laying more is a strong LA number. The other angle at play is the motivational one. We saw the Celtics with very little fire in game 6, and the Lakers had all the energy in the world. The loss of Kendrick Perkins allowed Pau Gasol to work above the rim basically by himself, and even Ron Artest got into the act of hitting a few outside shots, created when the Celtics sagged off of him. There's almost no way that the Celtics play that poorly, again, though. They must have missed 5 or 6 point blank, mostly uncontested layups, and if they make those, they're right in the game and don't have to force bad shots to try to make up ground. This may be, as noted on Wednesday's podcast, the first time we truly see both teams play hard for all 48 minutes, or maybe 53 minutes. Motivationally, I can't help but think Boston keeps this one relatively close. So, the two angles suggest each side, and each suggest a low-scoring game with the potential for some points scored down the stretch. Again, my one piece of advice - don't put too much stock in any one game or one piece of evidence. Look at the whole picture, and make a play.