Celtics at Lakers Game One
By Matthew Fargo
The Numbers
The Lakers are -5.5 for Game One of the NBA Finals over the Celtics. The lone regular season meeting in Los Angeles had the Lakers favored by just -2.5 points back in February so this is a big jump from that. The total sits around 192 after opening between 194 and 195. Both regular season meetings stayed well below the number.
Greatest Pro Rivalry Ever?
This is the 12th meeting in the NBA Finals of the two most storied franchises in the NBA.
The series dates back to 1948 covering 272 meetings but it really did not get going until 1959, the first of seven championship meetings in the next 11 years. The Celtics brought home the NBA Title in all seven of those series ' with three of those going the seven-game distance.
The Lakers were able to get some of it back winning two of the three meetings in the Bird vs. Magic era in the 80 ' s. It was then 22 years before they finally got to meet again, this time in 2008 when the Celtics claimed their first NBA Championship since 1986.
After getting humiliated in the Finals two years ago, including a 39-point shellacking in the deciding game, the Lakers were thrilled that the Celtics took out the Cavaliers and the Magic to get here as they no doubt want some payback.
Better Prepared
While the Lakers were beaten pretty badly in the 2008 Finals, they can draw some positives from it. Los Angeles did not know what was coming at them two years ago but that won ' t be the case this year.
“Well, you're just looking forward to the challenge of it,” Kobe Bryant said. “The last time we played them, it was a great learning experience for us. It taught us what it takes to be a champion. The defensive intensity that they played with, the tenacity that they played with, we learned a great deal in that series.”
The Lakers used that series loss as a form of motivation and they were able to get it done last season against the Magic four games to one to bring home another NBA Championship. It was the 15th in franchise history and a title this year will move it to within one of Boston ' s 17 NBA crowns.
A win would also move it over .500 as Los Angeles is 15-15 in NBA Finals series. Boston meanwhile is an outstanding 17-4 in 21 trips to the Finals.
Same Teams, Different Teams
The last NBA Finals meeting was just two years and while some things have stayed the same, things have changed as well. The core players for both sides are still in place and the styles of both teams have not changed but there are plenty of differences since then.
Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins have grown and matured as players. Ron Artest has given the Lakers a more formidable perimeter defender than the last time they played, Andrew Bynum is healthier, and Pau Gasol has added 15 pounds of muscle.
Even with these differences, the Celtics are not going to be changing their gameplan or style because they feel what worked then is going to work again and there is no reason to stray from that. The defense that was so tough then is playing with that same tenacity now.
“They play one way and we play a different way,” Ray Allen said. “That's what's beautiful about the Finals because you get a contrast of the two styles. It's about who can take away that team's strengths and force that team to play the way you want them to play.”
More Competitive Please
The NBA Playoffs have always been extremely entertaining and usually have provided us with many great moments and extremely great games. This year however the playoffs have been a dud unless you like blowouts and runaways.
Through the first 14 series, there were more games decided by 20 points or more (13) than three points or less (10). Where is the supposed parity in that? Two rounds back, the Celtics were blown out by the Cavaliers by 29 points only to return the favor by 32 points two games later. On the other side, The Lakers lost to Oklahoma City by 21 points in Game Four only to win Game Five by 24 points.
The NBA Finals last season had two overtime games, both won by the Lakers but it also had two blowouts by 25 and 13 points. Two years ago, the Lakers lost the final game against Boston by 39 points, the second double-digit loss in the Finals by Los Angeles.
After seven long months of pro basketball, is it too much to ask for a series that is competitive throughout and one that will go the distance? I don ' t think it is.
Trends
Boston is 9-20-1 ATS against the Western Conference this season.
Los Angeles is 15-5 ATS at home when playing on three or more days rest over the last three seasons.
The Celtics are 10-4 to the ‘Under ' in their last 14 playoff games when underdogs between 5.0 and 10.5 points.
The Lakers are 9-2 to the ‘Under ' in their last 11 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of .600 or better.
The Celtics are 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
NBA RoundUp For 6/3
By Dan Bebe
Celtics @ Lakers - Los Angeles by 5.5 with a total of 194. First thing's first - over the last week, the side hasn't budged from the opening number, but the total has come down to, roughly, 192 across the board. You could probably argue some of that money that moved the total was sharp, but you might also want to be careful, considering there's a reason it stopped moving violently at 192, and that's because folks want to see where the big chunks of public cash end up, and that can be a guessing game when you've got two ultra high-profile teams like these, and two teams with wildly different styles of play. So, you've got a ton of public money on both sides, and those that like the Lakers probably like the Over, and those that like Boston probably like the Under. Well, I'll try to be as up-front as I can, here, though with only one NBA game, trying to hide any play I might make is basically impossible. So, I'll offer a few thoughts from a few different schools of cappology. First, the line: the complete lack of movement in the side doesn't tell us a whole lot - I suppose it's fair to say that since Boston was generally a 7 point underdog to open their other series on the road, the 1.5-point line adjustment down for this opener is a marker of the respect Boston is beginning to garner. Though, as you may also recall, Boston was just a 4.5-point dog in their last road game, when no one thought Orlando could do anything. This one falls right in between, sort of the oddsmakers way of saying that they still think the Lakers are the slightly better team, but that Boston isn't as bad as they listed 4 weeks ago. From a line perspective, the question is really whether the fact that each game this year was decided by a single point means that getting 5.5 is a colossal gift or if the Lakers would have beat Boston by a handful if Kobe plays in that meeting in LA. From a situational standpoint, the signs point largely to LA. Andrew Bynum had his knee drained, so the Lakers post edge should be a bit better, though he'll get worse as the series wears on, and Boston, a team that probably needed a couple days to rest up, may have gotten too much time and lost a little momenum. But more than all that rest stuff is the impact of the media. I've really done my part to watch as much TV as humanly possible, not just this week but in general, and all I've seen all week long is how the Celtics are tougher, smarter, and playing better team basketball, and you know that all those bettors teetering on the fence are getting pulled towards the Boston side. Situational angles favor value on the Lakers side. And finally, matchups. I watched Tim Legler claim that Boston has a match-up edge in the starters, the reserves, and in the coaching department. Uh. That's called overreacting. The Celtics are a damn good team, but to claim that they have a tangible edge over the Lakers in every key aspect, well, now that's just nuts. Boston has a huge edge at point guard, but we've seen the types of shots that Fisher can hit in big games; Kobe is going to turn Ray Allen into his rag doll; Ron Artest and Paul Pierce is going to be statistically dominated by Pierce, but if Artest can make him work, that's all the Lakers want; Pau Gasol is a better all-around player at this point in his career than Kevin Garnett, and Bynum is a better all-around player than Perkins. I'm not really sure where this monstrous edge in starters comes from. I'm trying to give Legler the benefit of the doubt, and assume he's putting extra weight on 1-on-1 defense, but the Lakers are vastly underrated on the defensive end, as well. I happen to think the Lakers have the edge in starters, though it's definitely close. The bench battle should be a good one. The Lakers have the single best bench player in Lamar Odom, though the Celtics probably have the 2nd, 3rd and 4th best in Big Baby, Rasheed, and maybe Tony Allen, though I'm not sure Allen is any better than, say, Shannon Brown. I think the Celtics bench had nice match-ups against the Magic, with Rasheed pulling Dwight Howard away from the basket and Glen Davis muscling up on Rashard Lewis, or others, but I happen to think that someone like, say, Gasol or Odom, won't really mind coming away from the hoop as much as Howard or Gortat did. Maybe a tiny edge to Boston, but this is far closer than ESPN seems to think, as well. And from a match-up standpoint, all of that takes a back seat to the Lakers strong play at home and the Celtics strong play, regardless of venue. I'm very curious to see how Boston plays in LA in game one. I'm not going to give out distinct leans on this game, but I will say that I strongly believe this series goes 6 or 7 games, and I also think the Lakers have a pronounced tendency to play to the style of their competition, but still retain the ability to win. Will they cover? Will the opening quarter be fast paced? Let's play a game!
NBA News and Notes
Lakers/Celtics split pair of one-point decisions this year, with road club winning both; LA (even) won 90-89 in Beantown Jan 31, then lost 87-86 Feb 18 at Staples (-2.5). Boston is 5-3 on road in playoffs, Lakers 5-3 as home favorite (8-0 straight up at home in playoffs). Both teams have lot of rest, both sides are whining about injuries. Lakers are 12-4 so far in the playoffs, with all four losses in Games 3-4 of series when they had already led 2-0 (Thunder/Suns). Third series in row Celtics are starting on the road. Lakers are defending champs, after losing finals to Boston a year before that.