Tuesday's Best NBA Bets
Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers (-9.5, 203)
Whether you’re getting paid in American or Canadian funds, the Toronto Raptors are single-handedly pulling bettors out of the recession.
Toronto has gone 10-3 since Dec. 18, covering in nine of those 13 contests. The Raptors’ most recent win was a 110-88 beating of the Dallas Mavericks as 1-point home underdogs Sunday night.
"To get to where we want to go we're going to have to win big games and today was a big game," forward Chris Bosh told reporters. "We came out prepared and I'm really proud of my guys for the way they played."
Toronto’s offense has been firing on all cylinders during this winning stretch. The Raptors are averaging more than 104 points per game in 2010 and rank fifth in the NBA in scoring.
Toronto won its lone meeting with Cleveland this season, taking a 101-91 win over the Cavaliers as 7-point home underdogs in late October.
Pick: Toronto
Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat (-5.5, 205)
If you lived in South Beach, you wouldn't want to leave either. The Miami Heat are back in the Sunshine State after a six-game western road trip that saw the team go 3-3 SU and ATS.
Heat coach Erik Spoelstra was disappointed after his team’s 98-80 loss to Oklahoma City Saturday. He talked to his team about getting big wins that can set the tone for the second half of the season.
"We'll have another opportunity for a defining moment and we'll be ready for that,'' Spoelstra told the Sun Sentinel. "I liked some of the things we did in the two games against Golden State and Houston in terms of our defensive effort and the ball movement.
"We'll continue to work on that and take it another step forward as we go home and head back on the road.''
While beating the Pacers at home isn’t considered a “defining moment”, it is a step in the right direction before Miami hits the road again for two more games this week.
Pick: Miami
Toronto Raptors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Toronto Raptors and the Cleveland Cavaliers will both be trying to pick up a win on Tuesday when they battle at Quicken Loans Arena.
The Raptors defeated Dallas 110-88 as a pick'em on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (206.5).
Chris Bosh scored 23 points and grabbed 13 rebounds for Toronto, while Andrea Bargnani added 22 points in the win.
The Cavaliers escaped with a 102-101 win over the Clippers at the STAPLES Center Saturday.
Los Angeles covered as an 8.5-point home underdog while the final score played OVER the 196-point total.
Current streak:
Toronto has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Toronto: 21-20 SU, 20-21 ATS
Cleveland: 31-11 SU, 20-21-1 ATS
Toronto most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 3-7
Before playing Milwaukee are 8-2
After playing Dallas are 5-5
After a win are 7-3
Cleveland most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 4-6
Before playing LA Lakers are 5-5
After playing LA Clippers are 5-5
After a win are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
Toronto is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
Cleveland is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Toronto
Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
Next up:
Toronto at Milwaukee, Wednesday, January 20
Cleveland home to LA Lakers, Thursday, January 21
Indiana Pacers vs. Miami Heat
The Indiana Pacers and the Miami Heat will both be trying to pick up a win on Tuesday when they battle at AmericanAirlines Arena.
The Pacers couldn't stop David West and Chris Paul, falling 101-96 to the Hornets at Conseco Fieldhouse Saturday.
New Orleans covered as a 2.5-point road underdog while the final score played UNDER the 208-point total.
The Heat couldn't stop Kevin Durant, losing 98-80 to the Thunder at the Ford Center Saturday.
Oklahoma City covered as a 4-point home favorite while the final score played UNDER the 194-point total.
Team records:
Indiana: 14-26 SU, 17-23 ATS
Miami: 20-19 SU, 19-20 ATS
Indiana most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 3-7
Before playing Orlando are 3-7
After playing New Orleans are 5-5
After a loss are 3-7
Miami most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 3-7
Before playing Charlotte are 3-7
After playing Oklahoma City are 5-5
After a loss are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indiana's last 5 games on the road
Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Indiana's last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 7 games when playing Miami
Miami is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Miami's last 25 games when playing at home against Indiana
Miami is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games at home
Next up:
Indiana at Orlando, Wednesday, January 20
Miami at Charlotte, Wednesday, January 20
Toronto (21-20, 20-21 ATS) at Cleveland (31-11, 20-21-1 ATS)
Fresh off a five-game Western Conference road trip, LeBron James and the Cavaliers return home to Quicken Loans Arena looking to knock off the Raptors, who are gunning for a third straight victory.
Toronto crushed the Mavericks 110-88 as a one-point home underdog on Sunday, moving a game above .500. The Raptors are playing their best basketball of the season, having won 10 of their last 13 games (9-4 ATS), and they’re 4-2 SU and ATS on the highway during this stretch. Toronto has turned up the offense lately, tallying more than 100 points in six straight games, including 107 or more five times.
The SU winner has covered the spread in all but three of Toronto’s games this season, including the last eight in a row. Also, the winner is 21-1 ATS in its 22 road outings.
Cleveland was a modest 3-2 on its road trip, but just 1-3-1 ATS. The journey ended with Saturday’s 102-101 win at the Clippers, coming up way short as an 8½-point road favorite. Going back to Dec. 11, the Cavaliers have won 16 of 20 games SU, going 6-1 at home. However, they’re just 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine overall (all as a favorite) and 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a host.
Toronto opened its season against the Cavaliers on Oct. 28 and pulled off a 101-91 upset as a seven-point home underdog, ending a five-game SU and ATS losing streak to Cleveland. Still, the Cavs have beaten the Raptors five straight times at Quicken Loans Arena (4-1 ATS). The SU winner has cashed in seven straight meetings and nine of the last 10, and the favorite has covered in four of the last five.
The Raptors’ ATS trends are all over the map, as they’ve cashed in five of seven overall, five of seven as a ‘dog, eight of 10 against the Central Division and four of five after getting one day off, but they’re also in pointspread slides of 1-6 on Tuesday, 9-25-1 as a road ‘dog of five to 10½ points and 23-48-2 against winning teams.
Cleveland is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight games when playing after two days of rest and 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 when facing opponents with a winning record, but the Cavs are otherwise in pointspread slumps of 2-6-1 overall, 2-5 at home (all as a chalk), 2-6 as a favorite and 0-5-1 after a SU victory. Also, the ‘dog is 7-2-1 ATS in Cleveland’s last 10 contests.
Toronto sports “over” streaks 7-3 overall, 4-1 on the road (all as an underdog), 6-1 after a SU win, 5-1 after a spread-cover, 20-8 on Tuesday and 18-7-1 against Eastern Conference opponents. Conversely, the Cavs carry “under” trends of 11-4 on Tuesday, 8-3 against Eastern Conference squads, 5-1 versus Atlantic Division foes, 5-1 against winning teams and 8-3 when going on two days’ rest. Finally, the under is on a 21-8-1 roll in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TORONTO and UNDER
NBA RoundUp For 1/19
By Dan Bebe
Raptors @ Cavaliers - Cleveland by 9.5 with a total of 203. Interesting game, this one. Cleveland is actually on revenge, believe it or not. It feels like it was almost half a year ago, and that's not that far from the truth. Way back in the second game of the season, the Cavs rolled into Toronto on the second night of a back-to-back and lost by 10 as a 7-point favorite. So much has happened since then, but it's still worth noting that since that day, it seems as though the Cavs have lost almost 6 points in the power rankings when compared to the Raptors, and something about that feels odd. If that game weren't a back-to-back, the Cavs would have been 9-point road favorites, and now they're just 9.5-point home favorites? Could it really be that the Cavs were 12-point neutral-court faves to the Raptors to start the year, and just 6.5 now? Cleveland is in a very bad 1st half situational spot here, coming home off a very long road trip, with their last game in Cleveland coming on the 6th. Two weeks away from home means a great deal of time with the family, running errands, playing with the kids, all that good stuff, but certainly things that take away from the focus of a long NBA road trip. I think the revenge will ultimately create a Cavs victory, but I'm not sold on this spread. Toronto has been playing their best basketball of the year, and I'm not sure people have all taken notice yet. Toronto clubbed the Mavericks on Sunday morning (a play we cashed, woohoo), and have covered 9 of 13. They've dominated at home lately, still aren't that impressive on the road, but they've made strides, that's for damn sure. They've won 4 of their last 5 road games to give them, yes, 8 total road wins on the season. One also has to think that Toronto will pose a few match-up problems for the Cavs, if in fact the Raptors can hit some shots. Obviously, Lebron will dominate the floor, but watching the game with the Mavs on Sunday really put into perspective the Raptors improving team defense. A lot of switching, a lot of helping - I was really impressed. If they can continue to force teams to take jump shots, they'll continue to succeed. I like Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani bringing the Cavs interior guys out of the paint, and I like Hedo Turkoglu having the length to at least contest some of what Lebron can do. I find it intriguing, as a side note, that this total is set so high, considering the first meeting this year, while not recent, went Under 194. So oddsmakers respond by setting this line 9 points higher? The Raps have scored over 100 points in 6 straight games, and the Cavs have broken 100 in 4 of 6, and scored 96 and 97 in the others. I lean Toronto and I lean Over.
Pacers @ Heat - Miami by 5.5 with a total of 205.5. Make it a double! Yes, revenge, so sweet. The Pacers have a bone to pick with the Heat, let's recap. Back on October 30, Miami cruised into Indiana as a 1.5-point dog and won that game by 13, 96-83, with a total that, as you can see, went WAY Under the posted total of 213! The next game, in Miami, featured a 114-80 Miami blowout victory, and that one just barely squeezed under a posted mark of 196. Now, here we are, back in Miami, where the Heat were favored by 9 for that 24-point win. The best part of these two previous matchups -- Indiana shot 36.7% and 30.7%. We still haven't seen Indiana put together even a mediocre game against the Heat; instead, two of the worst performances of the season have given bettors the false impression that the Pacers have no chance. But let's get serious -- if the Pacers had no shot, they wouldn't be getting just 5.5 points. This is a pretty soft line, considering Miami won each of the first two games by double digits. It's not as though Miami is playing terrible ball right now. They went a respectable 3-3 on a difficult road trip. I do like the fact that the Heat are playing their first home game in a while. This is a unique spot, too, in that Miami goes right back out on the road for 2 more after this game, BUT, they had 2 days of rest between the final road game and this home game, which I believe made it feel more like a homestand, and less like the "home stop-over" that I've referred to in the past. I expect a bit of a sluggish start from the Heat before potentially waking up later. The Pacers, meanwhile, had won 3 straight over Toronto, Phoenix and Jersey before losing a tough one at home to the Hornets, but they've still covered 4 of 5, and the returns of Danny Granger and Troy Murphy just cannot be overstated for this team. I like how Indy is scoring right now, breaking 100 in 5 straight before the loss to New Orleans, and I love how they seem to find a way to dictate the tempo, home or road, and that makes me like Indy on double-revenge, and I like the Over, assuming the public refers to previous matchups and takes the Under.
Trend Report - Tuesday
By Ed Meyer
Raptors at Cavaliers – The Raptors are 9-0 ATS (10.9 ppg) since December 12, 2008 with at least one day of rest after a win in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Raptors are 0-5 ATS (-7.5 ppg) since January 19, 2007 when they covered by double digits two games straight. The Cavaliers are 0-7 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since February 27, 2005 when seeking revenge for a loss as a road favorite in which they shot less than 40% from the field. The Cavaliers are 0-7 ATS (-7.3 ppg) since February 07, 2008 after a win in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. The Cavaliers are 5-0 ATS (8.5 ppg) since December 08, 2007 when their next game is at home versus an opponent they beat as an underdog in their previous same-season match-up.
Pacers at Heat – The Pacers are 9-0 ATS (10.3 ppg) since June 01, 2004 on the road after a game at home in which they shot at least twenty three-pointers and made less than a 25% of them. The Pacers are 0-7 ATS (-5.5 ppg) since January 15, 2007 off a home loss that broke at least a three-game winning streak. The Heat are 0-10 ATS (-9.2 ppg) since February 27, 2001 when facing a team they beat in their previous same-season match-up and they have a revenge game on the road tomorrow. The Heat are 7-0 ATS (11.1 ppg) since March 09, 2001 at home after a loss in which they had at least 12 steals.