Tuesday's Best NBA Bet
Charlotte Bobcats at Sacramento Kings (-1, 192.5)
Paul Silas is no Larry Brown – he’s actually better. The veteran NBA coach has led a turnaround that has helped the Bobcats increase their grip on the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference since he took over about a month ago.
When Silas took over just before Christmas, the team was 9-19 and among the worst in the league offensively and at taking care of the ball. Since then the Bobcats have gone 8-6 and have improved dramatically in the scoring department.
The team is averaging nearly six more points per 100 possessions under Silas. The reason is that players have the green light to take the first open shot and are not restricted to run a set play every time down the floor. As a result, the team has turned the ball over nine times or fewer in four of the team’s past seven games.
And you think the Kings are going to slow them down? Sacramento played Monday night in Portland and now must try to lock down the surging Bobcats. Good luck – Sacramento ranks 22nd in opponent points allowed (103) and 26th in opponent field goal percentage (47.3).
“We’ve got shooters,” Silas said. “We’ve got defenders. We’ve got shot blockers. We’ve got all the ingredients that you need. The guys just have to get out and play and believe in themselves and believe that I believe in them. I’ve found that if you have a confident player, it’s unbelievable what he can do.”
Pick: Charlotte
Hot LA Clippers in Big D to face slumping Mavericks
By: Brad Young
Two teams that are currently going in different directions collide Tuesday night when the Los Angeles Clippers (17-26 straight up, 22-20-1 against the spread) travel to Dallas (28-15 SU, 21-20-2 ATS).
The Clippers are in fourth place in the Pacific Division standings after a horrible start, but they are 7-3 SU their last 10 games behind the stellar play of power forward Blake Griffin.
Dallas is presently locked in a second-place tie with New Orleans in the Southwest Division standings behind San Antonio. The Mavericks have been stumbling lately due to the health of forward Dirk Nowitzki, going just 3-7 SU the previous 10 outings. The German native was sidelined for nine games recently due to a sprained right knee.
Don Best's Real-Time Odds list Dallas as 7½-point home ‘chalk’ over Los Angeles, with the total set at 197. Tuesday’s contest is scheduled to start at 5:35 p.m. PT from American Airlines Center.
Los Angeles improved to 4-1 SU its last five games after outlasting Golden State Saturday as an eight-point home favorite, 113-109. The combined 222 points toppled the 215-point closing total, enabling the ‘over’ to cash the fourth consecutive contest. The Clippers have now failed to cover their past two performances.
Los Angeles jumped out to a 12-point advantage in the first quarter, 34-22, and finished the contest with advantages in rebounding (48-42) and assists (28-23). The Clippers shot 44 percent (37-of-85) from the field and 80 percent (32-of-40) from the free-throw line, but just 21 percent (7-of-33) from behind the arc.
Griffin led the charge once again with 30 points and a career-high 18 rebounds along with eight assists. Shooting guard Eric Gordon contributed 23 and four assists, while small forward Ryan Gomes added 15 and eight boards.
Dallas has alternated SU wins and losses the past four outings after Saturday’s victory over New Jersey as five-point road ‘chalk,’ 87-86. The combined 173 points failed to eclipse the 186½-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the second consecutive contest. The Mavericks are now just 1-8 ATS their past nine matchups.
Dallas prevailed despite shooting just 35 percent (26-of-75) from the field and 38 percent from 3-point land (8-of-21). The Mavericks were also on the short end of points in the paint, 40-24.
Nowitzki hit the game-winning shot with just six seconds remaining, but he finished the contest by shooting a dismal 6-of-23 from the field for 23 points. Center Tyson Chandler provided 19 and eight rebounds in the triumph, while shooting guard Jason Terry had 11.
Dallas has won the previous seven meetings with the Clippers SU, while covering the past four outings ATS. The Mavericks won the lone encounter this season Oct. 31 as a 5½-point road favorite, 99-83. The combined 182 points failed to eclipse the 190½-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 5-2 the last seven meetings.
Los Angeles guard Eric Gordon (back) is ‘probable’ versus the Mavericks. The Clippers conclude a brief two-day, two-game Texas road trip with Wednesday’s matchup at Houston.
Dallas forward Caron Butler is ‘out’ for the season due to a knee injury. The Mavericks conclude their four-game homestand with games against Houston, Atlanta and Washington. Dallas is 7-2 ATS its last nine games versus Pacific Division opponents.
Off-tune Jazz visit LA Lakers
By: Michael Robinson
The reeling Utah Jazz try to salvage the final game of their road trip when they visit the Los Angeles Lakers on Tuesday night.
The Jazz (27-17 straight-up, 20-23-1 against the spread) are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games at Washington, New Jersey, Boston and Philadelphia. The Jazz scored 91.8 PPG and allowed 104.3 PPG in those games, with only Boston above .500.
The poor Utah defense has been the more surprising development. The ‘D’ is allowing 105.7 PPG in the last 10, compared to 98.9 PPG for the season. That’s unacceptable for defensive minded coach Jerry Sloan. The ‘over’ is 8-2 in the last 10 games.
Utah has a good offensive tandem up front with center Al Jefferson and power forward Paul Millsap. They combine for almost 34 PPG and 17 rebounds, but each is undersized for their position. Former starter Mehmet Okur has played just 10 games with multiple injuries and his minutes are limited.
Point guard Deron Williams (21.7 PPG, 9.5 APG) is still a great player, but the total offense (100.1 PPG, ranked 12th) isn’t good enough to win without a good effort on the other end.
Sloan tried to spark the team by moving Gordon Hayward into the starting lineup last game at Philly. However, the rookie responded with just four points and Andrei Kirilenko (11.3 PPG) will likely go back to starting on Tuesday. C.J. Miles (11.9 PPG) is another possibility, but he’s been the most productive bench player.
Los Angeles (32-13 SU, 20-24-1 ATS) is well rested as it begins a five-game homestand that also includes Boston and San Antonio.
L.A. has alternated between wins and losses the last four games, most recently winning in Denver on Friday night (107-97). Coach Phil Jackson’s team has the second best record in the Western Conference behind San Antonio (37-7 SU).
That record doesn’t seem good enough for former Lakers player and team executive Jerry West. He recently said age is catching up to the two-time defending champs, especially defensively. Those words are surprising as L.A.’s defense has improved the last 11 games (92.3 PPG allowed). The team is 9-2 SU (5-5-1 ATS), with the ‘under’ 8-3.
West is right about one thing, there is age with a starting backcourt of 32-year-old Kobe Bryant and 36-year-old Derek Fisher. Forward Ron Artest and Lamar Odom are each 31 and Pau Gasol 30. The only youngster among the top-6 players is 23 year-old center Andrew Bynum.
L.A. can still dial up an ‘A effort’ any night, but the bench is also a concern. Reserve Matt Barnes (knee) is out until March and wasn’t that effective when he played (7.4 PPG). Jackson can’t depend on any bench scoring outside of Odom and that can be costly against better opponents.
The older Lakers will have had three days off between games, but are just 1-6 ATS on two days or more rest this season.
The Lakers are 17-5 SU and 9-13 ATS at home this year, but 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS in the last six. The Jazz are 12-10 SU and 10-11-1 ATS away overall.
Utah won the first meeting between the teams, 102-96 as one-point home ‘dogs on Nov. 26. Bynum was still out for L.A. and Jefferson (20 points) will have a much tougher challenge against him in the post. Gasol has a four-inch height advantage over Millsap at the ‘four’ and should have a big game.
The Jazz are just 4-12 ATS in the last 16 games at the Lakers. The ‘over’ is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings and 14-5 in the last 19 in Los Angeles.
Tip-off from Staples Center is 7:30 p.m. (PT) and will be broadcast on NBA-TV. Utah has a tough game Wednesday night hosting San Antonio. The Lakers get more rest, welcoming Sacramento next on Friday.
NBA RoundUp for 1/25
by Dan Bebe
Denver Nuggets (-4.5) @ Washington Wizards with a total of 211.5
I feel like people may have forgotten just how mediocre Denver is on the road, and considering Washington played last night in New York and got spanked, this line is remarkably low. I have to think that Denver being considered just a 5.5-point neutral court favorite (adjusting for Washington's b2b and the venue) is very low, and either this is the gift of the century on a pretty public team, or oddsmakers are getting a little ahead of their biggest bettors. I know this is simplifying things, but here are two stats to check out. 13-9, and 5-13. Yes, that is Washington's home record and Denver's road mark. Denver outscores opponents by 8 in their own building, but loses by 4 on the road, on average, a whopping disparity of 12 points! Washington, likewise, averages a 2-point win at home and a 14-point loss on the road. These are two of the biggest home/road teams in the NBA, and they're squaring off with Denver as the favorite. If Washington has the energy to keep up, and it's a pretty big "if", they could definitely win this game outright. Lean to the WIZARDS and the UNDER.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics (-18) with a total of 195
This total is relatively high, considering Boston is expected to win by nearly 20 points. Kinda crazy if you asked me, which you did by coming to this blog. We can see that lines are starting to catch up with the Cavaliers a little, or whatever the opposite is of "catching up." The lines have gotten so chunky that even the pathetic Cavs are covering the number. This game, though, is a 50/50 spot, I feel - either Boston cares and they win by 35, or they don't and they still win, but only by 10 to 15. You're playing with fire by betting this game at all, but if you think Boston comes to play, can the Cavs really crack 85 points? I suppose you could put together an intriguing correlated parlay of Boston and the Under or Cavs and the Over...or both, and just hope one of the two hits? Nothing in bold in this writeup, so just take it for what it's worth. And no, there's no real revenge at play, since, somehow, these teams are 1-1 against each other this year.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks (-6) with a total of 195.5
This game is not one that looks all that tempting right off the bat, and here's why: the Clippers are the public darling of the week, and the Mavs aren't playing very well. So, in effect, we have overrated versus underachieving, two factors that cancel each other out, and I'd rather not make a wild stab at which is more important. I suppose you could argue that the Clippers have some tiny nugget of revenge, losing to Dallas in the first week of the season (as a 5.5-point home underdog, mind you, and now just a half point more on the road), but I don't think the Clips even remember that game. What's more important is that Dallas still isn't quite right, the Clippers aren't quite "there" yet, on the road, and someone has to win. The only thing that seems a certainty is that the Clips defense on the road is going to remain atrocious. For that reason, I have NO STRONG LEAN on the side, maybe a tiny one to the Clippers to keep it tight, but I like the OVER if LA is going to force Dallas to score.
Charlotte Bobcats @ Sacramento Kings (-1) with a total of 192.5
Sacramento finally broke through with a win last night! Yes, you heard correctly, the Kings got a lead and didn't blow it in the final moments. Is this a sign of more good things to come, or is it the win that creates a rippling "letdown" effect through the room? Tough to say. One thing we do know is that Gerald Wallace is coming back to Sactown with the Bobcats, and he might try to go off. This is the start of a 6-game road trip for the Bobcats, who, to their credit, have played a tiny bit better after an abysmal start, but still aren't very good. This line should hover around a pick, and oddsmakers are nearly dead on. These teams haven't played in nearly a year, so there's no bad blood from this season, though Charlotte did win both games last go-round, so Sacramento has season sweepvenge. This is a battle of jet-leg versus back-to-back fatigue, and with Sacramento finally closing out a game the right way, I believe they build on it, and I lean to the KINGS to get another, in a game that stay UNDER the total.
Utah Jazz @ Los Angeles Lakers (-8) with a total of 198
This is a series that has been about as one-sided as any between two good teams. The Lakers have completely and utterly owned the Utah Jazz, and that, combined with Utah's opposite-of-stellar road trip, has puffed this up to its sizable current state. Oh, how I desperately wish that Utah had just won something on their current 5-game trip because looking ahead, this was a spot I was actually prepared to back the Lakers (insane, I know). Los Angeles is playing focused basketball, especially at home, and the Lakers are at last truly utilizing that vast size advantage over almost the entire League to just squeeze teams right out of the paint, and slowly, out of the game. But instead, the Lakers have to win by nearly double digits to cover against a hungry (but still scuffling) Jazz team. Is this the game the Jazz "get up" and play competitive ball, or will the Lakers run of dominance continue? I admit, I really liked the idea of getting the Lakers at 6, but at 7.5 or 8, I dunno. Slight lean to LA, but I have some more thinking to do, and lean to the UNDER.