Tuesday's Best NBA Bets
Milwaukee Bucks at Dallas Mavericks (-7.5, 197)
Nothing helps the confidence of an NBA team like a good, old-fashioned butt whupping. Just ask the Dallas Mavericks. They were coming off a disappointing loss to the Sixers but bounced back with a 50-point win over the hosting Knicks on Sunday.
“With this team, you just never know,” All-Star forward Dirk Nowitzki told the Dallas Morning News.
The Mavs notched the largest margin of victory in club history despite playing without starters Jason Kidd and Erick Dampier. Both are expected to play Tuesday against the Bucks.
Don’t let the offensive outburst fool you. Dallas isn’t the run ‘n’ gun team it once was. The Mavs failed to surpass the 100-point mark in the previous seven games before blowing out New York.
Pick: Under
Los Angeles Lakers at Washington Wizards (8, 199)
The mood was cheery for Washington backers last week. The Wizards went 2-2 straight up and 4-0 against the spread over a four-game stretch but followed that up with back-to-back, double-digit losses.
"We play games like we're the team coming in 26-8 or something," head coach Flip Saunders told the Washington Post after the Wizards fell 92-78 to the Clippers. "That's got to stop."
The Wizards lack chemistry and the drive to earn tough points in the paint. All of the first 20 shots they took against the Clips were jumpers and only five rattled in.
The odds are stacked against Wizards Tuesday versus the Lakers. The defending champs are coming off losses in two of their last three games but the Wiz are talking like the Purple and Gold are unbeatable.
"That's a helluva challenge," Washington forward Caron Butler said about playing against the Lakers. "We got the champs coming to town. You got to have a ghost out there with you. Got have five-plus-one or something."
Don’t stop believing, Caron.
Pick: Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Washington Wizards
The fans at Verizon Center will be treated to a game between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Washington Wizards when they take their seats on Tuesday.
The Lakers lost to Toronto 106-105 as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (208).
Kobe Bryant led the Lakers with 27 points, 16 rebounds and nine assists, while Pau Gasol had 22 points.
The Wizards lost to the Clippers 92-78 as a 3-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (194).
Antawn Jamison led Washington with 20 points and 10 rebounds and Brendan Haywood had 18 points and 12 boards.
Current streak:
Washington has lost 3 straight games.
Team records:
Los Angeles: 33-11 SU, 19-25 ATS
Washington: 14-29 SU, 17-26 ATS
Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 8-2
Before playing Indiana are 9-1
After playing Toronto are 6-4
After a loss are 8-2
Washington most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 6-4
Before playing New Jersey are 2-8
After playing LA Clippers are 3-7
After a loss are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
LA Lakers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the LA Lakers last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
LA Lakers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games when playing on the road against Washington
LA Lakers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Washington's last 16 games when playing LA Lakers
Next up:
LA Lakers at Indiana, Wednesday, January 27
Washington at New Jersey, Friday, January 29
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. New York Knicks
The Minnesota Timberwolves and the New York Knicks will both be gunning for a victory on Tuesday when they meet at Madison Square Garden.
The Timberwolves were defeated 127-94 by the Bucks last time out, as 7.5-point underdogs. The teams played OVER the posted total of 202.
Jonny Flynn led the Timberwolves with 20 points, four rebounds, and five assists.
The Knicks lost to Dallas 128-78 as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (197.5).
Jared Jeffries led New York with 14 points and David Lee had 11 points and 14 rebounds.
Current streak:
Minnesota has lost 3 straight games.
New York has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Minnesota: 9-36 SU, 22-22-1 ATS
New York: 17-26 SU, 20-23 ATS
Minnesota most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 6-4
Before playing Cleveland are 6-4
After playing Milwaukee are 4-6
After a loss are 2-8
New York most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 5-5
Before playing Toronto are 5-5
After playing Dallas are 4-6
After a loss are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Minnesota's last 11 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New York
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New York
Minnesota is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing New York
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of New York's last 14 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New York's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New York's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of New York's last 23 games
Next up:
Minnesota at Cleveland, Wednesday, January 27
New York home to Toronto, Thursday, January 28
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Dallas Mavericks
The Milwaukee Bucks and the Dallas Mavericks will both be gunning for a victory on Tuesday when they meet at American Airlines Center.
The Bucks scored 42 points in the fourth quarter and ran away with a 127-94 victory over the Timberwolves on Saturday. The Bucks covered the 7.5-point spread, while the teams played OVER the posted total of 202.
Carlos Delfino netted 24 points with eight rebounds and eight assists in leading the way.
The Mavericks defeated New York 128-78 as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (197.5).
Jason Terry and Dirk Nowitkzi each netted 20 points for Dallas, while Drew Gooden added 15 points and 18 rebounds in the win.
Team records:
Milwaukee: 18-24 SU, 24-18 ATS
Dallas: 29-15 SU, 20-24 ATS
Milwaukee most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 2-8
Before playing Philadelphia are 4-6
After playing Minnesota are 6-4
After a win are 3-7
Dallas most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 7-3
Before playing Phoenix are 6-4
After playing New York are 5-5
After a win are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
Next up:
Milwaukee home to Philadelphia, Wednesday, January 27
Dallas at Phoenix, Thursday, January 28
Charlotte Bobcats vs. Phoenix Suns
The Charlotte Bobcats and the Phoenix Suns will both be gunning for a victory on Tuesday when they meet at US Airways Center.
Stephen Jackson scored 22 points for Charlotte in its 104-93 loss to Denver on Monday night.
Denver covered as 5.5-point home favorites, while the teams played OVER the 195.5-point total listed by sportsbooks.
Goran Dragic drained 32 points for Phoenix in its 124-115 loss to Utah on Monday night.
Utah covered as 7-point home favorites, while the game played OVER the 221.5-point total listed by sportsbooks.
Current streak:
Charlotte has lost 3 straight games.
Team records:
Charlotte: 21-22 SU, 25-18 ATS
Phoenix: 26-20 SU, 23-22-1 ATS
Charlotte most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 3-7
Before playing Golden State are 4-6
After playing Denver are 5-5
After a loss are 5-5
Phoenix most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 4-6
Before playing Dallas are 5-5
After playing Utah are 5-5
After a loss are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Charlotte's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Charlotte's last 5 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Charlotte is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Charlotte's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Phoenix's last 5 games at home
Phoenix is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Charlotte
Phoenix is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Charlotte
Phoenix is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games at home
Next up:
Charlotte at Golden State, Friday, January 29
Phoenix home to Dallas, Thursday, January 28
Golden State Warriors vs. Sacramento Kings
The Golden State Warriors and the Sacramento Kings will both be gunning for a victory on Tuesday when they meet at ARCO Arena.
The Warriors were defeated 112-103 by the Suns last time out, as 12-point underdogs. That game's 215 points went UNDER the posted total of 233.
Corey Maggette drained 27 points and grabbed six boards in a losing effort.
The Kings were tore apart 115-84 by the Heat last time out, as 7-point underdogs. That game's combined score went UNDER the posted total of 201.
Spencer Hawes shot 7-for-14 from the field with 14 points and seven rebounds in the loss.
Current streak:
Sacramento has lost 7 straight games.
Team records:
Golden State: 13-29 SU, 24-17-1 ATS
Sacramento: 15-28 SU, 20-21-2 ATS
Golden State most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 7-3
Before playing New Orleans are 3-7
After playing Phoenix are 7-3
After a loss are 4-6
Sacramento most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 2-8
Before playing Utah are 3-7
After playing Miami are 4-6
After a loss are 1-9
A few trends to consider:
Golden State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Golden State's last 12 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
Golden State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Sacramento's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Sacramento's last 12 games when playing at home against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Sacramento's last 11 games
Sacramento is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Golden State
Next up:
Golden State home to New Orleans, Wednesday, January 27
Sacramento at Utah, Friday, January 29
NBA RoundUp For 1/26
By Dan Bebe
Lakers @ Wizards - Los Angeles by 8 with a total of 199. Here's a stupid stat to get us started. The Lakers are 1-6 ATS on Tuesdays this season. Play the Wizards. Haha, but I kid. Let's break this thing down. The Lakeshow heads to D.C. off a 1-point loss in Toronto, somehow postponing the after-Cleveland letdown by a game after covering against the Knicks. I would expect the Lakers to really take it to the Wizards -- we know Kobe's not going to be happy, and it's tough to argue with the match-up at power forward. There's really nothing the Wizards can do to slow down Pau Gasol, and if they do try to move Brendan Haywood over, the Lakers have Odom and Bynum who can get a bevy of jams since the rim would be more or less unprotected. I very rarely talk about a potential play on the Lakers, especially as a huge road favorite, but situationally, they're in a decent spot. It's the middle of a long road trip, so they're likely to at least settle in a little bit (especially now that they probably have their luggage, which didn't make it to the first couple cities on this road trip). Also, the Wizards might be starting to hit the wall. We knew that this team would try to step it up when Arenas was shipped off, and the adrenaline-fueled play of Randy Foye was a monster pick-me-up for the Wiz, but the team is slowing, unable to keep that level of energy up for all 48 minutes. They've lost 3 straight after winning 2, and after playing the Mavs tough, they've been killed by both the Heat and the Clippers. It just looks like they're running out of gas. This game might look "too easy", so maybe it's best to avoid the side, but I lean a TINY bit the square way, to the Lakers. In terms of the total, Washington hasn't cracked 100 "for real" since the 10th (they had that mega-OT game with Chicago mixed in there), so I'm inclined to lean Under, though the Lakers could very well put up 110, so that does concern me a little.
Wolves @ Knicks - New York by 5.5 with a total of 207. This one is a little confusing, and some of that might be due to the fact that I spent most of Friday and Saturday in a stupor so I'm a little behind, but when I went out of town, I could swear the Knicks were more than 2.5-points better than the Wolves on a neutral court. This game is a great spot for BOTH teams, and I am just angry beyond angry that we're getting screwed like this. Let me explain: the Knicks are coming off a 50-point loss at the hands of the Mavs, failing to cover by, yes, 49-points. The Wolves are coming off a 33-point loss to the Bucks, failing to cover by just 25. You guys know how I love to back teams coming off embarrassing losses, and it's just a damn shame that these two teams had to be playing one another, severely limiting our ability to mine both clubs for value. I do, however, feel that the Knicks are in the truer "chip on the shoulder" situation. They're the better team between these two, and got crushed in front of their own fans. If that isn't reason to come back the next game and really play angry, I don't know what is. I know Minnesota has a knack for covering while losing the game, but I believe the Knicks lay a furious beating in this one. Maybe playing New York in the first half is the best bet, but with the JM play on Minnesota driving the line down off the opening number, I lean Knicks for the game. The total of 207 relies heavily on both teams really putting the ball in the hoop. I don't think the Wolves score the ball well, but I do think the Knicks put up a nice 3-digit number. I think the total is pretty sharp, but I lean just slightly to the Under, since these teams have only been playing to the over lately because of the strong competition. This game does not feature strong competition.
Bucks @ Mavericks - Dallas by 7.5 with a total of 197. And now we get to deal with the two darn teams that DELIVERED the aforementioned butt-kickings. I just wish so badly we could rearrange the teams involved in the games today and really milk some of the screwy perceptions floating around out there. But, here we are, Milwaukee off the 33-point win, and Dallas off the 50-point slaughtering at MSG. I think the key here is that Milwaukee has actually covered 4 straight games, and is quietly starting to shoot the ball better. We got a little screwed on Friday when we took Toronto on the second game of their home-and-home as Andrea Bargnani was the typical Bebe-late scratch, but ignoring for a moment the fact that Toronto might have covered with him, the Bucks are competing right now, finding a way to stay in games, especially when they're a marginal dog. It really seems like the blowout loss to Orlando a couple weeks back woke this team up. Bogut has been using a plethora of inside moves, and you just have to love the ease with which Carlos Delfino is putting in shots from long range. Dallas is a terrible 5-15 ATS at home, and I just have to believe they're overvalued in this one just because of that one huge win over the Knicks. If we forget that 50-point drubbing, Dallas had covered just 1 of their previous 7 games, so this wasn't exactly a team on the rise. I lean to the Bucks to stay within striking distance and lose late. The total looks too high at 197, though Dallas did just snap a string of 4 straight "unders" with the victory in New York, and Milwaukee has played in 4 of 5 "overs." The question is whether Dallas will shoot the ball well. Milwaukee plays middle-of-the-road defense, so this one, to me, is a toss-up. I lean Under, but only enough to just slip beneath the limbo stick.
Bobcats @ Suns - Phoenix by 5.5 with a total of 210. Another situation where, despite the rather medium-sized Monday card, both teams are in a similar situation, with both having played last night. The Suns are coming off a 4th quarter meltdown to the Utah Jazz, taking a decent lead into the final 12 minutes before getting outscored by over 10 points and losing by 9 while failing to cover. The Bobcats opened up a 5-game road trip with a difficult voyage into the altitude of Denver, and after falling behind relatively early, the Bobcats just sort of stayed behind by 10 most of the game. This is a weird game to handicap because the Bobcats, who had won 6 in a row just less than a week ago, have now lost 3 straight, each by double digits. Also worth noting, this game is a revenge spot for the Suns. Phoenix got positively manhandled by Charlotte 10 days ago on the road as a 3-point underdog, and I think it's quite interesting how large of a shift we're seeing on the line for this one. There is definitely a premium being placed on the Suns here, but I think it's a spot where the line is high because it needs to be. Phoenix has been struggling, but they're still a vastly superior team at home as opposed to their awful road woes, and even though both teams on a back-to-back most likely favors the younger legs of the Bobcats, I think Phoenix gets it done in this one, and we might be able to snag a tasty line at BetUS, thanks to a JM play on the visiting Bobcats. The total is interesting, too, given that these teams played to a 224 final score in Charlotte on a posted "over" of 208.5. I think it's pretty normal to see the line jump a couple points here, but I'm inclined to think we don't get quite the same tempo with both teams on a back-to-back. That makes me think the total is pretty sharp, though I do lean just barely to another Over, if perhaps by only a point or two.
Warriors @ Kings - This line is OFF. Yikes, if you're a Kings guy. This team is just 2-9-1 ATS in the month of January, and just 1-11 SU, falling precipitously out of contention in the Western Conference, and the return, loss and re-return of Kevin Martin seems to have done very little (or nothing) for their fortune. I am curious, though, to see how they play back at home. This is only the 5th home game in January for Sacramento, despite 8 road games, so it's been a difficult month schedule-wise, as well. They're also coming off getting positively spanked by the Heat in Miami, losing by 31 while scoring in the mid-80's for the 5th time in the last 7 games. This team is right at that point of bottoming out, and I wonder if we're not going to be able to juice some value out of them right about now. The Kings have been shooting the ball consistently in the 37-44% window, not nearly good enough to get it done, not with their porous defense, and you just have to believe the Martin is getting closer to getting his legs, and this team is getting closer to learning how to play with a full roster. The Warriors are on a short 2-game road trip that began with a loss (but a cover) in Phoenix, and Golden State has quietly covered 4 games in a row. We have to remember, though, that this team is just not that successful on the road - they rely heavily on jumpshots, and role players tend to struggle knocking down J's away from home. They're just 4-18 on the road this year, SU, and while they've been able to cover some large underdog spreads in that role, this game is going to feature a much smaller spread. Both teams are on 2 days of rest, and both teams have won and covered the previous home meeting in this season series, so you have to favor Sacramento based on the above notes. I'm also very curious where this total opens up. The first game went way over the posted mark of 216.5; the second game went way under the posted mark of 229.5. We should see a total back near the 216 we had earlier this year, and I lean to the Under. My biggest concern, and it should be all of yours, as well, is that Monta Ellis is doubtful for this one, and that's why we're being forced to wait on a line. Be careful.
Trend Report - Tuesday
By Ed Meyer
Warriors at Kings – The Warriors are 8-0 ATS (9.4 ppg) since December 13, 2005 with at least one day of rest off a loss as a dog in which they led at the end of each of the first three quarters. The League is 0-7 ATS (-3.7 ppg) since February 17, 2009 on the road with two or more days of rest after a loss in which less than 40% of their baskets were assisted. The Warriors are 0-7-2 ATS (-6.8 ppg) since April 06, 2008 on the road with at least one day of rest after a game in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.
Timberwolves at Knicks – The Timberwolves are 9-0 ATS (9.5 ppg) since December 09, 2008 after a loss in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line. The Timberwolves are 7-0 ATS (8.0 ppg) since December 12, 1995 on the road with two or more days of rest after a game on the road in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. The Timberwolves are 0-7 ATS (-10.5 ppg) since December 26, 2003 on the road with two or more days of rest after a game in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line. The Timberwolves are 0-7 ATS (-8.7 ppg) since April 11, 2002 on the road after a road loss in which they allowed at least 55% from the field. The Knicks are 0-8 ATS (-9.7 ppg) since April 06, 2007 at home after a game at home in which they had fewer than fifteen assists.
Bucks at Mavericks – The Bucks are 0-7 ATS (-6.4 ppg) since April 18, 2006 after a game in which they shot at least 10 percentage points higher than their season-to-date average. The Bucks are 6-0 ATS (8.7 ppg) since December 05, 2003 on the road with two or more days of rest after a double digit win in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two. The Mavericks are 0-10 ATS (-11.8 ppg) since May 29, 2003 at home after a double digit road win in which their DPA was minus 15 points or less.
Bobcats at Suns – The Bobcats are 7-0 ATS (8.4 ppg) since January 28, 2006 on the road when playing their fourth game in five days. The Suns are 7-0 ATS (9.2 ppg) since May 22, 2006 at home when seeking revenge for a loss as a road dog in which they allowed at least 50% shooting from the field.
Lakers at Wizards – The Lakers are 5-0 ATS (6.8 ppg) since May 02, 2007 on the road with at least one day of rest after a loss in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Wizards are 0-10 ATS (-7.8 ppg) since April 05, 2005 at home with at least one day of rest when their DPS was minus 15 points or less in their previous game. The Wizards are 0-9 ATS (-6.8 ppg) since April 09, 2005 at home with at most one day of rest after a double digit loss in which they had more turnovers than assists. The League is 8-0 ATS (12.6 ppg) since December 09, 2008 at home after a home loss against the Clippers.