Tuesday's Best NBA Bets
Detroit Pistons at Dallas Mavericks (-8.5, 187)
The last time the Detroit Pistons tasted victory was Dec. 12, 2009. The Pistons were only one game under .500 at 11-12 and some thought new head coach John Kuester was an early candidate for coach of the year.
The overhauled Pistons now take a nine-game losing streak into Dallas, which marks the longest losing streak for the Pistons since the 1993-94 season, and they have lost those nine games by an average of 13 points.
"You go through spurts, and this is a bad spurt for us right now," Kuester said. "We're not doing a number of things well, and when it rains it pours. We've got to get back on the right track."
Last time these two teams met in November, Dirk Nowitzki had 25 points, six rebounds, five assists and two blocked shots in a 95-90 win at The Palace.
Detroit backers hope extra practice time between games will give the Pistons an edge, but it's unlikely the visitors will be able to keep up with the Mavs.
Pick: Mavericks
Golden State Warriors at Denver Nuggets (N/A)
The Denver Nuggets may be without their 1-2 scoring punch of Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups in Tuesday night's home game against the Golden State Warriors.
Anthony, who has missed the last two games with a knee bruise, told reporters the injury is worse than what he originally thought, while Anthony also is listed as questionable with a groin injury after having missed seven of the last eight games.
Although both probably could play if pressed into action, a report from the Colorado Sports Desk said ''it is likely they will both get rest again before the high-key match up this Friday against Lebron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers.''
Denver also is without Chris ''Birdman'' Anderson, who went down with a severe ankle sprain and is listed as doubtful.
That's good news for Golden State, which is far from being Road Warriors this season. They are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 road games but have covered four of their last five games overall.
The Nuggets have lost four of their last five ATS and may be ripe for the picking as a shorthanded squad looking forward to a date with King James & Co.
Pick: Warriors
Washington Wizards vs. Philadelphia 76ers
The Washington Wizards and the Philadelphia 76ers will both be trying to pick up a win on Tuesday when they battle at Wachovia Center.
The Wizards were rattled by the Spurs, losing 97-86 at the Verizon Center Saturday.
San Antonio covered as a 6-point road favorite while the final score played UNDER the 202.5-point total.
The 76ers upset Denver 108-105 as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (207).
Allen Iverson scored 17 points and handed out seven assists for Philadelphia and Elton Brand added 16 points in the win.
Current streak:
Washington has lost 4 straight games.
Team records:
Washington: 10-21 SU, 11-20 ATS
Philadelphia: 10-23 SU, 14-19 ATS
Washington most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 5-5
Before playing Cleveland are 3-7
After playing San Antonio are 4-6
After a loss are 2-8
Philadelphia most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 4-6
Before playing Toronto are 2-8
After playing Denver are 2-8
After a win are 2-8
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Washington is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Washington
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
Philadelphia is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington
Next up:
Washington at Cleveland, Wednesday, January 6
Philadelphia home to Toronto, Friday, January 8
Chicago Bulls vs. Charlotte Bobcats
The Chicago Bulls and the Charlotte Bobcats will both be gunning for a victory on Tuesday when they meet at Time Warner Cable Arena.
Derrick Rose put up 19 points and seven assists for Chicago in its 98-85 loss to Oklahoma City on Monday night.
Oklahoma City cashed as 2.5-point road underdogs, while the teams played UNDER the 192-point total listed by oddsmakers.
The Bobcats upset Cleveland 91-88 as an 11.5-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (185.5).
Stephen Jackson scored 22 points for Charlotte and Gerald Wallace added 19 points and 12 rebounds in the win.
Current streak:
Charlotte has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Chicago: 14-18 SU, 12-18-2 ATS
Charlotte: 14-18 SU, 21-11 ATS
Chicago most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 4-6
Before playing Milwaukee are 2-8
After playing Oklahoma City are 4-6
After a loss are 4-6
Charlotte most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 2-8
Before playing New York are 4-6
After playing Cleveland are 5-5
After a win are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games when playing Charlotte
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Charlotte
Charlotte is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Charlotte is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Charlotte is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Next up:
Chicago at Milwaukee, Friday, January 8
Charlotte at New York, Thursday, January 7
Orlando Magic vs. Indiana Pacers
The Orlando Magic and the Indiana Pacers will both be trying to pick up a win on Tuesday when they battle at Conseco Fieldhouse.
The Magic couldn't stop Derrick Rose in a 101-93 loss to the Bulls at the United Center Saturday.
Chicago covered as a 3.5-point home underdog while the final score played OVER the 193-point total.
The Pacers lost to New York 132-89 as a 9.5-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (208.5).
Luther Head led Indiana with 18 points and Mike Dunleavy deposited 12 points.
Team records:
Orlando: 24-9 SU, 17-14-2 ATS
Indiana: 10-23 SU, 12-21 ATS
Orlando most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 7-3
Before playing Toronto are 9-1
After playing Chicago are 5-5
After a loss are 8-2
Indiana most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 2-8
Before playing Minnesota are 6-4
After playing New York are 7-3
After a loss are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Orlando's last 9 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Orlando is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Indiana
Orlando is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games
Orlando is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indiana's last 9 games when playing at home against Orlando
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games at home
Indiana is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Orlando
Next up:
Orlando home to Toronto, Wednesday, January 6
Indiana at Minnesota, Friday, January 8
Milwaukee Bucks vs. New Jersey Nets
The Milwaukee Bucks and the New Jersey Nets will both be gunning for a victory on Tuesday when they meet at Izod Center.
The Bucks got 27 points from Michael Redd in a 103-97 overtime win against the Thunder at the Bradley Center Saturday.
Milwaukee covered as a 1.5-point home favorite while the final score played OVER the 197-point total.
Devin Harris netted 22 points with five rebounds and six assists in the Nets' 94-86 loss to the Cavaliers on Saturday, as 10-point underdogs. That game's 180 points went UNDER the day's posted total of 192.
Team records:
Milwaukee: 13-18 SU, 17-14 ATS
New Jersey: 3-30 SU, 11-21-1 ATS
Milwaukee most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 6-4
Before playing Chicago are 3-7
After playing Oklahoma City are 1-9
After a win are 5-5
New Jersey most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 6-4
Before playing Atlanta are 5-5
After playing Cleveland are 3-7
After a loss are 1-9
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing New Jersey
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing on the road against New Jersey
New Jersey is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
New Jersey is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
New Jersey is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Jersey's last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
Next up:
Milwaukee home to Chicago, Friday, January 8
New Jersey at Atlanta, Wednesday, January 6
Detroit Pistons vs. Dallas Mavericks
The Detroit Pistons and the Dallas Mavericks will both be gunning for a victory on Tuesday when they meet at American Airlines Center.
Rodney Stuckey was good for 22 points in the Pistons' 98-87 loss to the Bulls on Thursday afternoon.
The Pistons had been favored by 4 points at home in that contest, while the combined score fell UNDER the day's posted total (186).
The Mavericks lost to the Lakers 131-96 as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (201.5).
Dirk Nowitzki led Dallas with 22 points and Tim Thomas netted 12 points in the loss.
Current streak:
Detroit has lost 9 straight games.
Team records:
Detroit: 11-21 SU, 14-17-1 ATS
Dallas: 23-11 SU, 17-17 ATS
Detroit most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 5-5
Before playing San Antonio are 4-6
After playing Chicago are 5-5
After a loss are 2-8
Dallas most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 4-6
Before playing San Antonio are 8-2
After playing LA Lakers are 6-4
After a loss are 9-1
A few trends to consider:
Detroit is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games
Detroit is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Dallas is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
Dallas is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing at home against Detroit
Next up:
Detroit at San Antonio, Wednesday, January 6
Dallas at San Antonio, Friday, January 8
Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets
The Golden State Warriors and the Denver Nuggets will both be gunning for a victory on Tuesday when they meet at Pepsi Center.
The Warriors couldn't connect in the fourth quarter, losing 105-89 to the Trail Blazers at the Rose Garden Saturday.
Portland covered as a 3.5-point home favorite while the final score played UNDER the 213.5-point total.
The Nuggets lost to Philadelphia 108-105 as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (207).
Nene Hilario led Denver with 24 points and 15 rebounds, while Ty Lawson deposited 23 points to go with nine assists.
Current streak:
Golden State has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Golden State: 9-23 SU, 16-15-1 ATS
Denver: 21-13 SU, 16-18 ATS
Golden State most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 5-5
Before playing Minnesota are 6-4
After playing Portland are 7-3
After a loss are 2-8
Denver most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 6-4
Before playing Cleveland are 7-3
After playing Philadelphia are 4-6
After a loss are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
Golden State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Golden State's last 19 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Golden State's last 9 games on the road
Golden State is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Denver is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Golden State
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Golden State
Denver is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
Next up:
Golden State at Minnesota, Wednesday, January 6
Denver home to Cleveland, Friday, January 8
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Portland Trail Blazers
The Memphis Grizzlies and the Portland Trail Blazers will both be trying to pick up a win on Tuesday when they battle at Rose Garden.
The Grizzlies upset the Suns, 128-103, at US Airways Center Saturday.
Memphis covered as an 8-point road underdog while the final score played OVER the 228-point total.
Martell Webster went for 25 points and six boards for the Trail Blazers in their 105-95 loss to the Clippers on Monday night.
Los Angeles covered as 4-point home favorites, while the game played OVER the 189-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Current streak:
Memphis has won 3 straight games.
Team records:
Memphis: 16-16 SU, 18-14 ATS
Portland: 22-14 SU, 19-16-1 ATS
Memphis most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 4-6
Before playing Utah are 0-10
After playing Phoenix are 4-6
After a win are 6-4
Portland most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 5-5
Before playing LA Lakers are 4-6
After playing LA Clippers are 8-2
After a loss are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Memphis's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Memphis's last 5 games on the road
Memphis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Memphis is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Portland is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Memphis
Portland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Portland's last 7 games when playing at home against Memphis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games at home
Next up:
Memphis at Utah, Wednesday, January 6
Portland home to LA Lakers, Friday, January 8
Phoenix Suns vs. Sacramento Kings
Divisional bragging rights will be on the line on Tuesday when the Phoenix Suns and the Sacramento Kings meet at ARCO Arena.
The Suns were upset, 128-103, by the Grizzlies at US Airways Center Saturday.
Memphis covered as an 8-point road underdog while the final score played OVER the 228-point total.
The Kings fell 99-91 to the Mavericks at ARCO Arena Saturday.
Dallas covered as a 4-point road favorite while the final score played UNDER the 206-point total.
Current streak:
Sacramento has lost 3 straight games.
Team records:
Phoenix: 21-13 SU, 19-14-1 ATS
Sacramento: 14-19 SU, 19-13-1 ATS
Phoenix most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 6-4
Before playing Houston are 7-3
After playing Memphis are 6-4
After a loss are 7-3
Sacramento most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 3-7
Before playing Golden State are 5-5
After playing Dallas are 2-8
After a loss are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 5 games
Phoenix is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Sacramento
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Phoenix's last 8 games on the road
Phoenix is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
Sacramento is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Sacramento's last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Sacramento's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Sacramento's last 6 games when playing Phoenix
Next up:
Phoenix home to Houston, Wednesday, January 6
Sacramento at Golden State, Friday, January 8
Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
The Houston Rockets and the Los Angeles Lakers will both be gunning for a victory on Tuesday when they meet at STAPLES Center.
The Rockets fell 99-95 to the Hornets at New Orleans Arena Saturday.
New Orleans covered as a 2.5-point home favorite while the final score UNDER the 194.5-point total.
The Lakers defeated Dallas 131-96 as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (201.5).
Jordan Farmar deposited 24 points for the Lakers and Lamar Odom had 15 points and 15 rebounds in the win.
Current streak:
Los Angeles has won 3 straight games.
Team records:
Houston: 20-14 SU, 20-14 ATS
Los Angeles: 27-6 SU, 14-19 ATS
Houston most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 6-4
Before playing Phoenix are 7-3
After playing New Orleans are 8-2
After a loss are 9-1
Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 8-2
Before playing LA Clippers are 6-4
After playing Dallas are 6-4
After a win are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Houston's last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the LA Lakers last 5 games
LA Lakers are 14-1 SU in their last 15 games at home
LA Lakers are 20-3 SU in their last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the LA Lakers last 6 games when playing Houston
Next up:
Houston at Phoenix, Wednesday, January 6
LA Lakers at LA Clippers, Wednesday, January 6
Houston (20-14 SU and ATS) at L.A. Lakers (27-6, 14-19 ATS)
The Lakers, once again surging after three straight victories, look to avenge one of their six defeats when they host the Rockets at the Staples Center.
Houston has been off since Saturday’s 99-95 loss at New Orleans as a 2½-point road underdog. The Rockets have been experiencing consistency issues lately, splitting their last six games (2-4 ATS), and they’re 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS on the road during this stretch with the one victory coming at lowly New Jersey. The offense has been the main issue over the past six games, averaging just 96.8 points and reaching triple digits just once.
After a pair of shaky home wins and non-covers over the Kings and Warriors, Los Angeles destroyed the Mavericks 131-96 as a 6½-point home favorite on Sunday, ending a 1-5 ATS funk. Seven players scored in double figures, as the Lakers posted their first double-digit home win since Dec. 11, a span of five contests. L.A. is putting up 115.8 ppg over its last five games, but prior to shutting down Dallas on Sunday, Phil Jackson’s squad had given up more than 100 points in six straight games (109.5 ppg).
On their way to the NBA title last year, the Lakers struggled to put away Houston, needing seven games to win the second-round series (4-3 ATS). The Rockets got a tiny measure of revenge on Nov. 15 when they went to Staples Center and rolled 101-91 as a nine-point underdog. Despite that upset, Houston is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight trips to Hollywood, and the host has cashed in five of the last six battles (playoffs included).
Houston’s 0-4 ATS slide on the road is offset by positive ATS streaks of 5-1 against Western Conference foes, 9-3-1 after getting two days of rest, 35-16 after a SU defeat and 40-17 after a non-cover. L.A. is in pointspread ruts of 4-9 overall, 1-5 at home, 0-5 on Tuesday, 2-5 after one day of rest, 2-6 against Western Conference foes and 1-4 after a SU victory.
The Rockets carry “under” trends of 5-1 overall, 4-0 on the road and 25-11 after a non-cover, and five of the Lakers’ last six games against winning opponents have stayed low. However, the over for L.A. is on stretches of 5-0 overall, 4-1 at home and 6-0 versus Western Conference foes. Finally, the under is 5-1 both in the last six meetings between these teams overall and the last six clashes in Los Angeles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA RoundUp For 1/5
By Dan Bebe
Magic @ Pacers - This line is OFF. As are many of the lines on this card, but I'll do my best to break down the teams, situationally, and see if we can't try to predict a few things. Orlando concludes their 3-game road trip to start the new year with a game in Indiana against the utterly hopeless Pacers. The Magic are 1-1 on this trip so far, posting a strong 2nd half in a victory in Minnesota before struggling against a surging Bulls club (that suffered a letdown tonight against the Thunder, but that's a story for another paragraph). Now, the Magic, who appeared to be sleepwalking through the first halves of a few of their recent games, will take the floor against a team that wouldn't strike fear into an army of parakeets. This is why, without seeing the line, I think Indiana actually has a decent shot of covering what I believe will be a hefty, hefty, hefty spread. Orlando should be favored by a ton (~7-8 range, I'd imagine), and the best part about this situation is that Orlando is finishing up a road trip, so they're in a letdown spot, and the Pacers are coming off a 43-point loss to the Knicks, so they've hit rock bottom. There is rarely a better time to play a terrible team than the game after they bottom out, because oddsmakers are going to give them a ton of points, and I'd be surprised to see 12% of the public willing to back such a horrid club. I expect a total over 200, as well, and I don't have a strong lean until I see where this thing starts out.
Wizards @ Sixers - Sixers by 3.5 with a total of 207. Philadelphia comes home after a long, 6-game road trip that hit almost every nook (and cranny) of the US. This is a tough, tough spot for Philadelphia, as that first game back is never easy, even after a 3 or 4-game trip, but after a grueling 6-gamer, we are almost definitely going to see the Sixers playing in molasses in the first quarter, or potentially the first half. To their credit, though, they have been playing better basketball lately, picking up 3 wins in those 6 tough road games, and are suddenly exploiting the fact that they have fast, athletic players that can score quickly. Another positive for Philly fans is that the Sixers lost to the Wizards to open up that 6-game road trip, and now, one would think, this revenge spot will wake them up on the homestand a little faster than if they were playing, say, the Bucks. And don't get excited and go running down the comments section to remind me - I know, this is double revenge, as the Sixers lost both games with Washington this year, both on the road. Also working against the Wizards is the presence of the fuzz in their locker room, investigating Shotgun Gilbert and his "Delonte West act." Washington also has a game in Cleveland tomorrow night with the Cavs, a team they generally give a tough time. This is a look-ahead spot for Washington, a team with full-on dysfunction and facing a Philly club on double revenge; I lean Philly. The total looks high, but I think Philadelphia pushes the pace and runs Washington out of the building, I lean Over.
Bulls @ Bobcats - Bobcats by 5 with a total of 188. This side is tip-toeing that fuzzy line between a good value on the underdog, and a trap. The Bobcats return home off a short but wildly successful road trip, going 2-1, with wins in Miami and Cleveland. This team is rolling, and they have, to this point in the season, played extremely well at home, especially forcing turnovers. Is this a letdown spot? Maybe, but I think this team has high expectations, so big wins are more likely to fuel them than slow them down. On the flip side, the Bulls were a hot team, but a pretty bad club, so when they beat Orlando, that was almost like a playoff game for them, at least at this point in the season. So, right on cue, Chicago came back with a dud last night, and got walloped by the Thunder. I believe oddsmakers feel these teams are fairly evenly matched, with the Bobcats getting 2 extra points because of the back-to-back situation for Chicago. The Bulls, by the way, are a perfectly horrible 0-6 on the second night of back-to-backs, and are 0-4 when that second game occurs on the road, losing by an average of 20 points. I think Chicago has a little value as a dog, coming off the home loss, and I think Charlotte might get off to a slow start, coming home off a big win, but when push comes to shove, I'm not sure I can advocate betting against the Bobcats at home. The Bulls are 4-10 ATS on the road, the Bobcats are 10-5 ATS at home, and I'm actually a little glad Charlotte is playing their first game home off a road trip, because otherwise, every stat would point to the Bobs. The total is painfully low, and I can't help but think it stays Under, as Chicago won't break 90.
Bucks @ Nets - Milwaukee by 2 on the road with a total of 190. This should be a real fun one. Tell you guys what - if I actually get through this synopsis, I expect at least one post from each of you readers on how awesome I am for not passing out part way. The Bucks, a majestic 3-11 on the road, take their thrilling act into Jersey, 2-14 at home. Who will win this epic battle of futility? Well, the Bucks are coming off an OT win, and cover at home against the Thunder, but they lost their previous 4, so it sure as hell isn't easy to force a play on them. They are 7-7 ATS on the road, so they're losing inconsistently, in terms of final margin. Obviously, the Nets are not the formidable opponent of, say, Orlando (the Bucks most recent road loss), but Milwaukee has yet to be a road favorite this year, so this is uncharted territory for a crummy team. If you want to talk about a team inspiring almost zero confidence, this could be it...but wait! The Nets might even inspire less! They're 6-10 ATS at home, though it was 4-10 before back-to-back covers against the Knicks (a SU win), and a 60%-effort Cavaliers club. This might be as much credit as the Nets are going to get all season, but they're still an underdog. I think, rather than trying to determine who's going to win this grudge match, we should take a peek at the total. I think the initial impression is to think that these two teams, neither of which can shoot the ball, are destined to go Under, but I'm a little wary of that assumption. The Bucks are due for a breakout offensive game, and the Nets have shot the ball fairly well, with the exception of the Cavs game. I lean Over, amazingly.
Pistons @ Mavericks - Mavs by 9 with a total of 187. This is a screwy one, too. The Mavs return home off getting creamed by the Lakers, and their first home game after 4 on the road. The Pistons head to Dallas as the first half of a back-to-back here and in San Antonio, losers of 9 straight games, and without even one, single cover in that entire stretch. I'm not sure life could get much worse for Pistons fans, though I guess I might eat those words if they lose and don't cover in this one, too (and we can repeat ourselves every game on such a streak). Still, you all get the picture - this team is in the toilet, mostly due to injury and illness, and guys are just now starting to work their way back into gameshape, and the question is the same for this game as it was for their last one, "Is this the one where Detroit finally plays healthy?" And unfortunately, I just don't know for sure. Until Rip Hamilton starts nailing those curling baseline leaners, and until Ben Gordon consistently hits the pull-up 3, and so on and so forth, this team is going to continue to lose, and truthfully, I'd rather back Detroit AFTER they show me some sort of improvement. That's not to say I want to back Dallas in this one, because the Mavs aren't much for playing lesser teams, especially at home, where they're just 5-10 ATS. I would have to lean Detroit in this game if they weren't such a mess, so for now, let's say no real lean. The total looks awfully low, but I think this game stays Under, as I believe Dallas plays sluggish, and Detroit plays like Detroit.
Warriors @ Nuggets - This line is OFF. And I can say right now that I would need a pole of at least 20-feet to touch this one, even once the line comes out. When there are huge injury question marks like the ones on the Nuggets, until we know for CERTAIN who's in and who's out, there is zero reason to take shots in the dark. The Nuggets are pretty bad without Chauncey and Melo, and they're pretty damn untouchable at home with them, so the difference in this game could very well be night and day. It's silly to break it down without knowing which guys are going to play, but I suppose we can peek at the Warriors, if nothing else. Golden State is coming off a rough game in Portland after covering 4 straight spreads. There's no question this team is playing a little better lately, but they may have begun to get a little credit just in time for the beatdown at the Rose Garden. I think Golden State may lose this game no matter who plays for the Nuggets, but again, it's just so risky, and the whole point of handicapping is to isolate value and limit risk. The Warriors lost by 28 in Denver last time, so they'll be a little upset going into this rematch - that previous game, mind you, was the latter half of a back-to-back, so fatigue was a bigger factor than it will be in this one. Let's wait on this game a bit, and attack the line once we see it.
Suns @ Kings - Phoenix by 2.5 with a total of 226. I can't help but laugh, because once again, the Kings look like a good bet. Phoenix, clearly not the same team on the road that they are at home, is laying points in another very difficult place to play. My one concern is that the Suns are coming off getting clobbered in their own building by the Memphis Grizzlies, and may be looking to bounce back after a pair of off days. That being said, on a numbers-only basis, I have Sacramento capped to win this game outright. The Suns beat the Kings by 8 in Phoenix, but the Suns are over 12 points better at home than they are on the road. The Kings, losers of 3 straight, are over 8 points better at home than on the road, and their value is relatively high in this game. With Sactown losing a few games in a row, this is just the time we might see the public jump off the bandwagon, and when we can continue to grab this team in the right spots. This feels like one of those spots, but of course, we're not making any plays until we can see some favorable (or at the very least, not unfavorable) line movement. The Kings are 11-7 at home, the Suns are 8-10 on the road, and Phoenix heads right back home tomorrow to host the Rockets. I like the revenge angle for the Kings, I like that Tyreke Evans has had one game to get his legs back underneath him (a loss to the Mavs), and I like that the Suns just simply do not play as well on the road. I lean Kings on the side. The total looks pretty high, at 226, but I think it's pretty close to the final number. The Kings are an Over team at home, but the Suns are an Under team on the road. I lean just a teeny, tiny bit to the Under, but as I've said before, more of a "tilt."
Grizzlies @ Blazers - This line is OFF, presumably because the Blazers are 40% street-clothed. Portland is also coming off a loss to the Clippers in LA. I can't help but think that this is going to be viewed as the ultimate public fade of Portland, but then, maybe I'm expecting too much, too fast. Here's where I'm coming from: the Grizzlies beat the pants off Phoenix on the road, so in the eyes of the public, I would think this team would be extremely favorable. The Blazers are not only on a back-to-back, they're coming off a loss to the Clippers, and are without, as mentioned, a great portion of their team. If indeed these parameters are met, I lean Portland. Believe it or not, I think there's a decent shot oddsmakers use these key (and somewhat obvious) factors to deflate the value on Memphis, but I suppose only time will tell. That's what makes the line on this game hard to predict. In the event we get a fair line, it's important to point out a) the Blazers have shown the ability to score with their players hurt but not really defend, b) the Grizzlies have been scary-good over the last month (10-4 L14 games), and c) very few handicapping tools are more important than public perception. Let's wait and see on this one, but I have a little feeling in my stomach that the Over might also be an option.
Rockets @ Lakers - This line OFF. Pau Gasol is questionable (and my fantasy team is a wreck if he doesn't come back soon). And as you guys may or may not recall, the Lakers are not the same team without him. Pau Gasol missed the first 11 games of the season, and while the Lakers went a solid 8-3 SU without him, they were just 4-7 ATS, a clear indicator that missing such a reliable rebounder and scorer was key in their inability to "bury" the competition. Now, they may be without Gasol and Artest, two of the Lakers 3 best defenders. Of course, this team still has Kobe Bryant, but I think it's hugely important to note the competition here. The Rockets give the Lakers fits! Houston beat the Lakers in LA by 10 earlier this year after losing by just 1 point to LA in Houston, covering both games. And the Shane Battier Doctrine rules again. Now, without Gasol, and if Battier can do his usual job on Kobe (that is to say, slow him down just enough), I wouldn't put it past Houston to come away with another upset victory. Unfortunately, oddsmakers know what we know, and I think this line comes out shorter than most would expect. Still, that might almost be a good sign that we're not alone in our feelings on this game. I think Kobe plays with every ounce of strength he's got, but I think the Rockets make a great game of it. I have a weird feeling pointing me towards a potential Over play, since I think folks overreact to injuries on the Under; the most common result of an injury to a big man is a series of smaller guys getting to the rim easier rather than just the straight loss of that big man's production.
Trend Report - Tuesday
By Ed Meyer
Bulls at Bobcats – The League is 0-9 ATS (-15.1 ppg) since February 02, 2000 as a dog with no rest after a double digit home loss in which they were whistled for fewer than 15 personal fouls. The Bulls are 0-8 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since February 24, 2008 as a dog with at most one day of rest after a game at home in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.
Suns at Kings – The Suns are 7-0 ATS (10.7 ppg) since January 30, 1998 on the road with two or more days of rest after a loss in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Kings are 6-0 ATS (5.4 ppg) since December 19, 2008 when their next game is on the road versus an opponent they beat as an underdog in their previous same-season match-up.
Rockets at Lakers – The Rockets are 9-0 ATS (9.0 ppg) since December 20, 2004 with at least one day of rest off a road loss in which they led by 10+ points. The Lakers are 0-8-1 ATS (-8.7 ppg) since March 23, 2008 with at most one day of rest after a game in which they shot at least 55% from the field. The Lakers are 0-8 ATS (-9.9 ppg) since February 15, 2007 at home with at most one day of rest after a game in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line. The League is 8-0 ATS (10.4 ppg) since April 16, 2008 at home after a double digit win in which they had at least 10 more personal fouls than their opponent.
Pistons at Mavericks – The Pistons are 0-8 ATS (-6.6 ppg) since February 20, 2007 on the road with 3+ days rest. The Mavericks are 9-0 ATS (8.4 ppg) since May 13, 2003 at home after a game on the road in which they shot at least twenty three-pointers and made less than a 25% of them.
Bucks at Nets – The League is 10-0-1 ATS (8.5 ppg) since December 06, 2008 on the road after a home win in which they had at least 10 shots blocked. The Bucks are 0-9 ATS (-12.6 ppg) since November 12, 2003 as a favorite off a home win in which they trailed at the end of the third quarter. The Bucks are 8-0 ATS (12.9 ppg) since December 20, 2006 with two or more days of rest off a win in which they trailed by 10+ points. The Nets are 7-0 ATS (8.7 ppg) since March 30, 1999 after a home loss against the Cavaliers.
Warriors at Nuggets – The Warriors are 0-7 ATS (-10.1 ppg) since December 11, 2001 on the road after a road loss in which they has more than 10 refereed turnovers. The Warriors are 7-0 ATS (9.4 ppg) since May 11, 2007 when seeking revenge for a loss as a dog in which they were out-rebounded by at least fifteen rebounds. The League is 8-0 ATS (8.2 ppg) since February 22, 2009 at home after a home loss in which they had at least five more turnovers than their season-to-date average. The Nuggets are 7-0-1 ATS (12.8 ppg) since February 08, 2008 with at least one day of rest off a loss of four points or fewer in which they trailed by double digits.
Magic at Pacers – The Magic are 9-0 ATS (7.1 ppg) since November 14, 2001 on the road with at least one day of rest after a road loss in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line. The Pacers are 10-0-1 ATS (8.6 ppg) since January 25, 2000 at home with at most one day of rest after a game in which they shot at least twenty three-pointers and made less than a 25% of them. The Pacers are 8-0 ATS (10.1 ppg) since November 21, 2007 after a double digit loss in which their DPA was at least plus 15 points.
Wizards at Sixers – The Wizards are 0-9 ATS (-5.8 ppg) since November 28, 1995 on the road with two or more days of rest after a game at home in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers. The Wizards are 0-7 ATS (-10.1 ppg) since December 26, 2001 on the road with two or more days of rest after a game in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Sixers are 7-0 ATS (10.3 ppg) since December 10, 2007 at home with at least one day of rest off a win in which their leading scorer for that game had fewer than 20 points.
Grizzlies at Trailblazers – The League is 11-0 ATS (11.4 ppg) since February 23, 2008 on the road with two or more days of rest after a road win in which their DPS was at least plus 15 points. The Grizzlies are 9-0-1 ATS (11.4 ppg) since February 21, 2000 with at least one day of rest after a double digit road win in which their DPS was at least plus 15 points. The Grizzlies are 0-7 ATS (-5.1 ppg) since December 30, 2005 on the road after a road win in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two. The Trailblazers are 0-8 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since January 01, 2007 as a home favorite with at most one day of rest after a loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.
Tips and Trends
Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings
Suns (-2.5, O/U 226.5): Phoenix sits at 21-13 SU this season, the 8th best record in the NBA. Since December 1st however, the Suns are only 7-10 SU and 8-9 ATS. Away from home, the Suns have a losing record of 8-10 SU and 9-9 ATS. Phoenix is also 4-4 ATS as the listed road favorite this season. The Suns have a prolific offense, as they've scored at least 113 PTS in 5 of their past 6 games. Overall, the Suns are the highest scoring team in the NBA at nearly 110 PPG, 3 PPG higher than the next closest team. They lead the NBA in 3 point percentage while averaging the 2nd most made 3's per game. PG Steve Nash is the engine of this offense, averaging over 18 PPG and 11 APG. Those 11 APG easily lead the NBA, as he is one of only 2 players averaging double digits in the category. Phoenix allows the 2nd most PPG in the league, and have given up their 2 highest point totals in 2 of their last 4 games.
Suns are 10-1 ATS last 11 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.
Over is 7-0 last 7 vs. Western Conference.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 117 (Side of the Day)
Kings: Sacramento has revenge on their mind, as they lost by 8 points in Phoenix last month. The Kings have lost 5 of their last 6 games to fall to 14-19 SU on the season. Despite their SU record, this team plays opponents tough, and proof of that is in their ATS record of 19-12-2 this year. This young Kings team plays well at home, as they are 11-7 SU and 10-8 ATS this season. The Kings have only lost consecutive games ATS twice this season, one of which was back to back losses to the Lakers and Cavs at home in extra time. Sacramento averages nearly 104 PPG, led by rookie PG Tyreke Evans. Evans averages 20.6 PPG, as well as a team high 5 APG. Besides Evans, 6 other players average double digits in PTS this season. Sacramento can really score at home, as they've scored more than 100 PTS in 16 of their 18 home games this year. Defensively, the Kings allow more than 105 PPG, the 4th most in the NBA.
Kings are 1-5 ATS last 6 games as a home underdog.
Over is 15-5-1 last 21 games as a home underdog.
Key Injuries - G Kevin Martin (wrist) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 106