Tuesday's Best NBA Bets
Miami Heat at Boston Celtics (+1, 191.5)
The NBA is turning over a new page when the Miami Heat take the floor at the TD Garden Tuesday night. Just in case you thought it was going to be the same ‘ole story, Miami has gone and changed the characters – at least one.
Miami guard Dwyane Wade is dumping his “Flash” nickname, which was the title former teammate Shaquille O’Neal bequeathed upon him during his arrival in South Beach in 2004. Wade just so happens to be up against O’Neal and his new team, the Boston Celtics, Tuesday night.
“I haven’t really paid much attention myself. We’ve been focused on what we need to do here,” Wade told reporters when asked about O’Neal’s debut with Boston.
While the Heat will only get a small dose of Shaq Tuesday, they know they need to watch out for the rest of the Celtics, who are the defending Eastern Conference champs. The importance of this opening game isn’t lost on Boston, regardless of its experienced and savvy roster.
"This is a special situation," Celtics coach Doc Rivers told reporters. "Let's just be honest, everybody is excited about it. Our guys try to downplay it until you walk through the locker room and hear them talking about it. The film is on all day, watching Miami.
"I think everyone is excited. Once LeBron took his talents to South Beach, I think everyone got excited."
Miami has a ton of pressure on it to start the schedule strong and is well aware that teams have painted a target on them. Expect this first game of the season to have a playoff atmosphere.
Pick: Miami -1
Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers (-7.5, 195.5)
It is a big night in La-La Land Tuesday.
The Lakers will hoist another banner to the rafters of the Staples Center and sport the latest addition to their jewelry collection. However, lost in the glitz and glam of Hollywood is the return of one of the NBA’s biggest stars.
Houston Rockets 7-foot-5 center Yao Ming is back on the court for the first time since May 2009, but will be limited in his first game since suffering multiple fractures to his foot.
Rockets coach Rick Adelman told the media he will monitor Yao in the first six minutes of the game and decide how much he’ll play from there. There has been a soft 24-minute cap put on the center’s floor time.
“He is just such a force around the basket,” Adelman told reporters. “He can score. The biggest thing is getting his balance and his timing down. The ball comes off the boards, for instance. He might be a count late to get it. He's not reacting like he used to.
“Right now, he can't expect too much. I just like the way he went through it. You can see the presence he gives us on the court. His presence is huge.”
Yao will be a huge asset against a tough Lakers frontcourt, which is missing starting center Andrew Bynum. That leaves Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom and Theo Ratliff to tangle with the tallest player in the NBA.
Yao’s impact, while limited in minutes, should give Houston just enough of an edge to make the defending champs sweat during their title celebrations.
Pick: Houston +7.5
Heat and Celtics tip-off NBA betting season
By: Michael Robinson
The much-hyped Miami Heat start the NBA season, and their ‘championship or bust’ campaign, when they visit the Boston Celtics on Tuesday night.
Bookmaker.com has the game at even odds with a total of 192-points. This is the first game of an NBA tripleheader with Phoenix (plus 7 ½) at Portland and Houston (plus 7 ½) at the L.A. Lakers late from the West Coast.
The Heat made the biggest splash in NBA free agency history when it signed both LeBron James and Chris Bosh to join incumbent Dwyane Wade. Anything less than a title will be deemed a major disappointment and Miami is the plus 125 favorite to win the whole thing.
Not many pundits are doubting that Miami’s ‘Three Kings’ are going to be great together, but there are still question marks with the supporting cast and health.
The injury bug has already hit Miami hard. Swingman Mike Miller has a thumb injury and will be out until at least January. The swingman is a great outside shooter who was going to spread the floor for James and Wade to operate in the lane. Veteran Jerry Stackhouse was just signed to provide depth.
Wade has been out (hamstring) since the preseason opener, but returned to practice on Saturday and is probable for Tuesday. James, Mario Chalmers, Carlos Arroyo, Eddie House and Jamaal Magloire have all dealt with ailments, but are ready to go.
Losing Wade in the preseason could affect early play as coach Erik Spoelstra needs to get guys used to his system and playing together in real games. Miami went just 3-4 straight-up in the preseason, losing the last three. It hasn’t played since last Thursday, with Friday’s night’s Orlando game canceled due to a slippery court.
Either Chalmers or Arroyo will start at point guard and center Joel Anthony rounds out the starting five. House, Udonis Haslem, James Jones and Zydrunas Ilgauskas are four more options off the pine in an underrated unit.
Miami went 47-35 SU last year (43-37-2 against the spread), losing in the first round to Boston in five games. The ‘over’ was 45-36-1. However, it’s hard to infer much from those stats with a complete roster makeover.
The Celtics made an unexpected run to the NBA Finals last year, beating the Heat, Cavaliers and Magic in the playoffs. They even led the Los Angeles Lakers 3-2 in the NBA Finals before losing the last two games out west in heartbreaking fashion.
Boston is an old team with starters Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce ranging from 33-35. Free agent acquisition Jermaine O’Neal was supposed to start at center with Kendrick Perkins (ACL) out until February, but he’s been hampered by injuries and Shaquille O’Neal will start Tuesday.
Point guard Rajon Rondo is the only young player in the starting five. The bench is going to play a lot of minutes and they’re talented with Nate Robinson, Glen Davis, Marquis Daniels and Jermaine O’Neal (probable for Tuesday).
One name not on that list is Delonte West. He’s serving a 10-game league suspension and will be an effective combo guard when he gets back. Veteran Von Wafer will see time in his absence.
The Celtics went just 50-32 SU in the regular season last year with Garnett and Pierce each missing double-digit games with injuries. They really struggled (24-17 SU, 12-28-1 ATS) at home. They did get their ‘mojo’ back in the playoffs, 9-3 SU and ATS at home.
Boston shined in the preseason (7-1 SU) and is plus 1200 to win the NBA title at Bookmaker. Other sportsbooks have the team as low as plus 800.
Tip-off from TD Banknorth Garden is at 4:30 p.m. (PT). TNT will have the broadcast.
Boston will play at Cleveland on Wednesday against the LeBron-less Cavaliers. Miami will also play a ‘back-to-back,’ making the short flight to Philadelphia.
Tuesday NBA Tips
By Kevin Rogers
One of the most anticipated opening nights in NBA history is finally here as LeBron James and Chris Bosh make their Heat debut against the Celtics in Boston. Past the eventual wall-to-wall coverage on Miami this season, there are plenty of other exciting storylines to tip off the season on Tuesday. The Suns move on from the Amare Stoudemire era as Phoenix hooks up with Portland in a rematch of their six-game series in last season's first round of the playoffs. The night concludes the defending champion Lakers hosting the Rockets at Staples Center, but we'll begin with the battle in Beantown.
Heat at Celtics - 7:35 PM EST
Miami's quest for a dynasty starts at TD Garden in Boston as the Celtics begin their defense of the Eastern Conference title. The Heat made the biggest move of free agency when James decided to take his talents to South Beach, along with Bosh. There are huge expectations for this Miami team, who retooled nearly its entire roster during the offseason for the exception of star guard Dwyane Wade.
The Celtics enter this matchup with not only out to prove that their window isn't shut yet, but that Boston eliminated Miami in five games of the first round of the postseason in April. It's tough to make an accurate comparison from what Miami was six months ago to now, but the Heat has dropped six straight meetings in Boston since March 2009.
The Heat will see some old friends in the middle (both literally and figuratively) as Shaquille O'Neal and Jermaine O'Neal play their first game in a Celtics' uniform. Boston began last season at 23-5, but played .500 ball following Christmas with a 27-27 record. Obviously that slide didn't mean much as the Celtics were one quarter away from winning their 18th NBA title in a Game 7 loss to the Lakers.
Boston was 5-9 ATS in its first 14 home games last season, but the C's were listed as a double-digit favorite 10 times in that stretch. The Heat cashed in six of their first nine games as a road underdog through Christmas in 2009, including outright wins at Orlando and Portland.
Suns at Blazers - 10:05 PM EST
Portland has been unable to make it out of the first round the last two seasons, falling to Houston and Phoenix each in six games. The Blazers are still a team to be reckoned with moving forward, as Portland looks to avenge that playoff defeat to Phoenix at the Rose Garden on Tuesday.
The Suns lost Stoudemire to New York in free agency, as Phoenix picked up several veterans in Hedo Turkoglu, Josh Childress, and Hakim Warrick to add depth. Phoenix will still be running and gunning with Steve Nash at point guard, while Robin Lopez hopes to duplicate the nice run he had in January and February prior to a back injury.
Portland did not profit as a home favorite last season, going 15-17 ATS, while failing to cover twice as home 'chalk' against the Suns in the playoffs. The Blazers did suffer through a ton of injuries, including leading scorer Brandon Roy missing 17 games and former top pick Greg Oden playing in just 21 games. The Blazers claimed two of three regular season meetings before the Suns eliminated Portland in six games of the playoffs.
The Suns went 12-11 ATS as road underdog during the regular season, but stepped up with a 5-2 ATS mark in the postseason when receiving points on the highway. There wasn't much of an advantage of taking the 'under' with Phoenix on the road, as the Suns went 22-18-1 to the 'under' last season.
Rockets at Lakers - 10:35 PM EST
Another championship banner will be raised at Staples Center following the 11th title won by this Lakers' franchise since moving to Los Angeles in 1960. Los Angeles staved off Boston in another classic Lakers-Celtics Finals, as Kobe Bryant tries to prove he's got enough gas left in the tank to win another championship.
The first test for Phil Jackson's squad is a Rockets' team that gave Los Angeles all it can handle in four meetings last season. Yao Ming is back for Houston after missing last season with a broken bone in his left foot, as the Rockets' center will play limited minutes on Tuesday night. Houston does own a dynamic scoring backcourt duo of Aaron Brooks and Kevin Martin, who will no doubt put up points for a Rockets team that began last season covering seven of their first nine games as a road underdog.
The Lakers lost only seven regular season games at home last season, but it took until L.A.'s fourth home contest to cover after failing to cash against the Clippers, Mavs, and Hawks. Los Angeles was able to beat Houston three of four times in 2009-10, as the Rockets' lone victory in this series came in a 101-91 victory at Staples Center as nine-point underdogs.
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Tips and Trends
Miami Heat at Boston Celtics
HEAT: (-1, O/U 189.5) The most anticipated season in history begins tonight, as Miami gets their season underway. Miami is expected to challenge for the best regular season ever, as well as compete for a championship. The addition of F Chris Bosh and G LeBron James in the offseason have brought huge expectations to this team. With these 2 joining G Dwyane Wade, the Heat have an All-NBA trio for years to come. Miami has a tough season opener, as they have to battle a team that knocked them out of the playoffs last year. Not only that, but the Celtics are a veteran team that will force the Heat to share the basketball. The Heat will need others besides the Big Three to step up and be a difference maker, no easy task on the road. The Heat are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite up to 4.5 points. Miami is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the Eastern Conference. The Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games overall.
Heat are 4-1 ATS last 5 games as a road favorite.
Over is 6-1 last 7 games as a favorite.
Key Injuries - G Dwyane Wade (hamstring) is probable.
Projected Score: 91
CELTICS: Boston opens up a new season against a team they dominated last year. The Celtics won all 3 regular season matchups last season, and also eliminated the Heat from the playoffs last year in 5 games. Obviously the Heat are a new team this year, but there is little doubt that Boston gains confidence when they see those Heat uniforms. Boston retained nearly everyone from last year's team, and have brought in a few aging bigs. C's Shaquille O'Neal and Jermaine O'Neal will look to fortify the Boston front court this season. This appears to be the final effort to bring another championship to Boston this season. PG Rajon Rondo is now the best player on this team, and he will be counted on all season long to lead this team to victory. F Paul Pierce will look to keep those legs moving, as he would love to improve on his 18.6 PPG scoring average from last season. The Celtics are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games against the Eastern Conference. Boston is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games overall. The Celtics are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against the NBA Southeast.
Celtics are 9-2-1 ATS last 12 games as a home underdog.
Under is 4-0 last 4 home games.
Key Injuries - C Jermaine O'Neal (wrist) is probable.
Projected Score: 92 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
Heat-Celtics open NBA season Tuesday
By: Tim Walsh
MIAMI HEAT (0-0) at BOSTON CELTICS (0-0)
Tip-off: Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Even, Total: 191
The NBA season gets underway on Tuesday in Boston when the new-look Heat travel north to take on the Celtics. The game marks the much-anticipated debut of LeBron James and Chris Bosh in Miami uniforms. The duo teams up with Dwyane Wade in hopes of improving on the Heat’s 47-35 record last year. They’ll also look to avenge an opening-round playoff loss to the Celtics last year, who needed only five games to bounce Miami out of the postseason. The Heat went an uninspiring 3-4 in the preseason with Wade missing a majority of the action with a hamstring injury.
For the Celtics, they enter the year for one more run at an NBA Championship with their big three still intact. Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett got some help down low in the offseason with the addition of Shaquille O’Neal. Tuesday’s matchup marks the second time in as many seasons that Boston will open against LeBron James. The Celtics defeated the Cavaliers last year on opening night in Cleveland, 95-89. Boston was 7-1 in the preseason.
The Celtics are 8-4 ATS (10-2 SU) against the Heat over the past three seasons but the FoxSheets give two anti-Boston reasons to pick Miami on Tuesday.
BOSTON is 19-34 ATS (35.8%, -18.4 Units) when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 96.8, OPPONENT 96.0 - (Rating = 1*).
BOSTON is 9-20 ATS (31.0%, -13.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 96.1, OPPONENT 96.7 - (Rating = 1*).
This FoxSheets trend also likes the Under.
Doc Rivers is 41-24 UNDER (+14.6 Units) in home games against Southeast division opponents as the coach of BOSTON. The average score was BOSTON 97.1, OPPONENT 90.9 - (Rating = 1*).