Inside the Paint - Tuesday
By Chris David
The 2009-10 pro basketball regular season tips off Tuesday with a quality quartet on tap for your wagering purposes. It’s fair to say that it’s too early to handicap these games, considering the NBA is a marathon and not a sprint. Be sure to check out VI's fearless predictions and some future picks from our friends at ASA and The Gold Sheet.
Enough talk, let’s break them down.
Boston at Cleveland (-5, 186)
The Celtics and Cavaliers were the co-favorites to claim the Eastern Conference last year and neither club did, as Orlando took the crown. Along with the Magic, Boston and Cleveland are considered the three teams to beat in the East all three have new faces. The Cavaliers added Shaquille O’Neal to sure up the middle, plus a pair of athletes in Jamario Moon and Anthony Parker. The Celtics bulked up their bench by inking Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels, both veterans with playoff experience. The Cavs were a beast at home last year, posting a 45-3 straight up and 32-16 (67%) against the spread record. Boston wasn’t too shabby on the road, posting a 29-18 SU and 25-21 ATS ledger. The two teams split their four-game set during the regular season last year but the Cavs earned a 3-1 ATS mark. This will be the second straight season that the two teams meet in their openers. Boston captured last year’s opening night win with a 90-85 decision Cleveland but failed to cover as six-point favorite. The ‘under’ went 3-1. Tip off is slated for 7:35 p.m. EDT and TNT will provide national coverage.
Washington at Dallas (-8, 205)
This is the only non-conference battle on the hardwood on Tuesday and even though it could be tough to handicap for injuries, you do have some intrigue. The Wizards are happy to get a healthy Gilbert Arenas back in the lineup but unfortunately the club will be without Antwan Jamison (shoulder) for the first month of the season. Dallas made the playoffs for the ninth straight season last year but fell in the semifinals to Denver. The Mavericks haven’t been getting a lot of press in the offseason but they made some crafty additions, including Shawn Marion, Drew Gooden and Tim Thomas. Along with Thomas, Josh Howard is expected to miss this contest plus center Erick Dampier might sit as well. The Mavericks started the 2008-09 at home with four straight losses, but finished with a 32-5 mark. Last year, Dallas won and covered both meetings against the Wizards. The total went 1-1.
Houston at Portland (-9.5, 186.5)
The Trail Blazers made the playoffs for the first time last year sine the 2003 regular season. Unfortunately for Portland, they were knocked out in six games of the first round by Houston. The Blazers have an early shot to get revenge and fortunately for them, they will be seeing a different Houston club. Gone from the Rockets are Yao Ming (injury) and Ron Artest (Lakers), which will hurt the team offensively and defensively. Portland is one of the teams that could turn heads this year with budding stars in Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge. The club is deep across the board and the addition of point guard Andre Miller will bring valuable experience. Portland outscored teams 103-94 last year at home, which produced a 36-8 SU and 28-16 ATS record. The Rockets went 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS in four games last year at Rose Garden, including the playoffs. The total went 3-1.
L.A. Clippers at L.A. Lakers (-10, 208)
Will this be the year that the Clippers steal some of the publicity from the Lakers in Los Angeles? The defending champs have owned their Staples Center roommates, beating the Clippers in eight straight. The Lakers have won seven of the eight by double digits and covered six. Some might’ve expected the Clippers to be catching more points (+10) in this contest, considering they’ve been catching upwards of 16 and 17 points in recent meetings. The Lakers won’t have Pau Gasol (hamstring) is listed as ‘doubtful’ for Thursday, while the Clippers’ Marcus Camby (ankle) and rookie Blake Griffin (knee) could miss too. The ‘over/under’ for the opener is hovering at 207, and gamblers should be aware that the ‘under’ has gone 5-2 in the last seven. TNT will broadcast this game at 10:35 p.m. EDT.
vegasinsider.com
Boston at Cleveland
Shaquille O’Neal makes his regular-season debut with new teammate LeBron James and the Cavaliers, who tip off the 2009-10 season with a matchup against the Eastern Conference rival Celtics at Quicken Loans Arena.
O’Neal was acquired from Phoenix via trade in the offseason and joins his fifth NBA squad, one that finished with the league’s top SU and ATS records last year at 66-16 SU and 50-32 ATS. The Cavs’ success was mostly due to the dazzling play of James, who won his first MVP award by averaging 28.4 points, 7.6 rebounds and 7.3 assists per game. Despite the regular-season success, however, Cleveland failed to get to the NBA Finals, as they were bounced in the Eastern Conference finals by the Magic in six games (1-5 ATS).
One year after beating the Cavaliers in a thrilling seven-game playoff series en route to their 17th NBA championship, Boston also saw its 2008-09 season end at the hands of the Magic, falling in seven games (3-4 ATS) in the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Celtics, who didn’t have injured All-Star forward Kevin Garnett for their playoff run, finished with the second-best record in the conference and third-best in the NBA at 62-20 (42-39 ATS), and they cruised to the Atlantic Division title by 21 games over second-place Philadelphia.
Going back to the start of the 2006-07 season – and including their 2008 Eastern Conference semifinal series – the home team has won 18 consecutive meetings in this rivalry (9-8-1 ATS). Last year, the team’s split four games, with Cleveland going 3-1 ATS, including a season-opening 90-85 loss in Boston as a six-point road underdog. The Cavaliers are 18-6-2 ATS in the last 26 matchups with the Celtics, including five straight spread-covers at Quicken Loans Arena, and the home favorite has gotten the money in seven of the last 10 clashes.
Boston ended last season on ATS runs of 8-3-1 on the road, 3-1-1 against the Central Division and 4-0-1 as an underdog of less than five points (all on the road). The Celtics are also 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 as an underdog and 45-19-1 ATS in their last 65 as a road pup, but they have failed to cover in five of their last seven on Tuesday.
Despite ending the season with a 1-5 ATS mark against Orlando, the Cavs enters this year on ATS surges of 36-15 at home, 11-3-1 as a chalk, 13-4 when laying less than five points, 7-0 at home as a favorite in that price range and 22-5 versus Atlantic Division foes.
Three of the four meetings between these teams last year remained under the total, and each of the last four meetings at Quicken Loans Arena have stayed low. The under is also on runs of 4-0 for Boston overall, 17-8 for Boston as a road pup and 8-1 for Cleveland on Tuesday. On the flip side, the over is on stretches of 4-0 for the Celtics against the Central Division, 5-1 for the Cavs overall and 4-0 for the Cavs at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and UNDER
L.A. Clippers at L.A. Lakers
Kobe Bryant and the Lakers will raise another NBA championship banner to the rafters at Staples Center when they begin defense of their title with a designated home game against the Clippers, who will be without rookie Blake Griffin.
The Lakers closed the 2009 postseason on a 6-1 SU and ATS run, including eliminating the Magic in five games in the NBA Finals to capture the franchise’s 15th league title, including its 10th since moving to Los Angeles. Bryant followed up his 2008 MVP campaign with another spectacular season, ranking third in the league in scoring at 26.8 ppg to go with 5.2 rebounds and 4.9 assists per outing. Bryant also ranked second to LeBron James in playoff scoring, pouring in 30.2 ppg. At 65-17 (43-39 ATS), the Lakers finished with the best record in the Western Conference, one game behind Cleveland for the top mark in the league.
The Clippers are coming off yet another miserable season, as they finished 19-63, which tied for the second-worst record in the league, just two games ahead of the Sacramento Kings. The Clippers, who also had the worst ATS mark in the NBA last year (32-50), lost nine of their final 10 contests (2-8 ATS), with the lone win coming at home against the aforementioned Kings. Of those nine losses to end the year, seven were by double digits, including two embarrassing defeats to Utah (106-85 on the road) and Oklahoma City (126-85 at home) to cap the season.
The lone positive for the Clippers came when they won the NBA draft lottery and selected former Oklahoma star Griffin with the No. 1 pick. However, it was reported late Monday night that Griffin has a stress fracture in his patella tendon in his left knee and could be sidelined up to six weeks.
The Lakers have swept the last two season series from their rivals, winning all eight games, including seven by double digits. But after cashing in the first six of those eight, the Lakers failed to cover in the final two clashes last year, both as a massive 16-point favorite, winning 108-97 and 88-85. The Lakers’ 6-2 ATS run against the Clips has all come from the favorite role.
In addition to finishing last year in a 2-8 ATS nosedive, the Clippers are on addition pointspread purges of 7-19 as a road team (all as an underdog), 7-21 versus the Western Conference, 1-6 as an underdog and 25-52-1 as a ‘dog of five to 10 ½ points. Although the Lakers covered in six of their last seven playoff contests, they’re just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 against Pacific Division rivals and 2-5 ATS in their last seven when laying between five and 10½ points.
The Clippers stayed under the total in five of their last six overall last season and 12 of 17 on Tuesday, while the Lakers carrying “under” streaks of 34-16-1 overall, 19-7 at home, 29-9 as a favorite, 8-2 against the Western Conference and 9-4 on Tuesday. Also, five of the last seven in this rivalry have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS and UNDER
Celtics, Cavs renew rivalry
By SBGGlobal.com
The NBA season begins on Tuesday night with a great matchup in Cleveland as the Cavaliers host the Boston Celtics in a TNT televised game. These are the top two teams in the Eastern Conference and both look improved over last season. The Cavaliers added Shaquille O'Neal while the Celtics added Rasheed Wallace. The spotlight will be shining bright as these two teams begin this season against each other.
Cleveland is a 4.5 point favorite with a total of 186.5 at SBG Global.
The Cavaliers are getting a lot of attention now that Shaq is teamed with LeBron James. The results are expected to be excellent since LeBron gets along great with Shaq. "Everybody in this league always looks at Shaq like the Godfather," James said. "When you come into this league, you need to get to know him. He's a guy you need to sign the papers with before you play a game. I've always been comfortable being around him. It's not hard getting along with Shaq. His personality is great."
The Cavaliers won a lot of games last season but still didn’t even make the NBA Finals as Dwight Howard and the Magic knocked them out. The Cavaliers did something about that in the off-season as they added Shaq. The team also picked up forwards Jamario Moon and guard Anthony Parker in the off-season. The key addition though is Shaq. "This is probably the best team I've ever played on — on paper, anyway," O'Neal said. "I've always been on management to get me the power forward I've needed and the shooters I've needed."
Last season the Celtics and Cavaliers split their four meetings with each team winning at home. Paul Pierce led the Celtics with 20.3 points per game while LeBron James averaged 27.5 points per game for Cleveland.
Here are the NBA betting stats for Tuesday’s game. The Celtics are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games. The Celtics are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland.
The Cavaliers are 22-5 ATS in their last 27 vs. the Atlantic. The Cavaliers are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite.
The Under is 4-0 in the Celtics last 4 vs. the Eastern Conference. The Over is 4-0 in the Cavaliers last 4 home games. The Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between the two teams in Cleveland.
Ring-for-the-King
By SportsPic
The march of towards getting a "Ring for the King" begins at the 'Q' Tuesday as the Cleveland Cavaliers open the 2009-10 campaign vs the Boston Celtics. Ousted from the playoffs once again last year the Cavaliers added inside brute Shaquille O'Neal to a team that went 66-16 (50-32 ATS) last season behind one of the best offenses in the league (100.3 PPG) along with an even better defense (91.4 PPG). Cavaliers were exceptionally tough on 'Q' hardwood winning 39-of-41 games (28-13 ATS) scoring 102.3 PPG while holding visitors to just 88.0 PPG. Meanwhile, Boston shored up some weaknesses in the off-season adding Rasheed Wallace, Marquis Daniels to a 62-20 (43-39 ATS) team that netted 100.9 PPG overall holding opponents to 93.3 PPG. Celtics were 27-14 (21-20 ATS) away from TD Banknorth Garden last year scoring 97.3 PPG surrendering 92.4 PPG. C's destroyed Cavaliers 96-82 on this hardwood in pre-season but it is well to note Bean-Town-Boys haven't enjoyed success in Cleveland during regular or post season losing eleven consecutive games grabbing the cash in just two of the contests (2-9 ATS). Sportsbooks looking for a Cleveland victory have Cavaliers -4.5 to -5 point favorites. Trends of interest: Caves are 7-8 ATS at home laying -3.5 to -6. Celtics come in 27-13 ATS as underdogs, 12-4 ATS as road dogs of +3.5 to +6 points.
Tips and Trends
Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers
Celtics: Boston has lost 11 games in a row on the road to the Cavaliers by an average margin of 12.8 points. The Celtics have failed to cover in their last five visits to Quicken Loans Arena. This has been a home team series with the road club losing 16 consecutive times. The Celtics have held LeBron James to 40 percent shooting from the floor in their past 14 meetings during the last two seasons, although James is averaging 30.3 points against Boston in his last seven home games. Kevin Garnett is hoping to regain his explosiveness following injuries the past two years. He missed 25 games last year with a knee injury that required surgery. Boston fortified its depth signing Rasheed Wallace in backing up Garnett. Boston has been tremendous in an underdog role going 35-15-1 against the spread the past 51 times when getting points.
Boston is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 away contests.
The Celtics are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 games versus the Cavaliers.
Key Injuries - Forward Glen Davis (thumb) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 90 (Side of the Day)
Cavaliers (-4.5, O/U 185.5): The last time Cleveland lost to Boston at home was Dec. 18, 2004. The Cavaliers are hoping the combination of LeBron James and Shaquille O’Neal can push them over the top after losing in the championship finals to the Lakers. This is Shaq’s debut in a Cleveland uniform. The key question now becomes can LeBron and Shaq co-exist effectively? The 37-year-old O’Neal isn’t the Cavaliers’ only new addition. Also brought in were swingman Anthony Parker from Toronto and guard Jamario Moon from Miami. They’ll add to a good shooting backcourt consisting of Mo Williams and Delonte West, who missed the preseason after being arrested last month for possession of three loaded guns. The Cavaliers have held Paul Pierce to 14.7 points per game on 34.3 shooting in their last seven home contests. Cleveland has covered 22 of its last 27 matchups versus Atlantic Division opponents.
The Cavaliers are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite.
Cleveland is 37-16 against the number in its last 53 games as home chalk.
Key Injuries - Guard Delonte West (personal) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 85