Phoenix (9-2, 6-5 ATS) at Houston (6-4, 7-3 ATS)
The Suns play their seventh road game in their last nine contests when they head to the Toyota Center for a battle with the Rockets.
Phoenix rebounded from its second loss of the season – Thursday’s 121-102 blowout defeat at the Lakers – by barely getting past Toronto 101-100 on Sunday. However, the Suns failed to cash as a 7½-point home favorite, their second straight non-cover after a 4-0 ATS run. Phoenix has now hit triple digits in every game this year, and dating to last season, it has reached the century mark in 14 straight games and 46 of 52 contests, tallying 109 or more 33 times.
Houston stunned the Lakers 101-91 as a nine-point road underdog on Sunday and has now alternated SU wins and losses in its last seven. Since a season-opening 96-87 loss at Portland as an 8½-point road underdog, the Rockets have cashed in seven of nine games while scoring 100 or more points in every contest.
The Suns snapped a three-game losing skid to Houston with a 114-109 win as a 1½-point home favorite on April 1 last year, improving to 16-5 ATS in the last 21 matchups with the Rockets. The home team has won four of the last five in this rivalry (3-2 ATS), but the visitor is 22-10 ATS in the last 31 meetings, with Phoenix cashing in 13 of its last 16 visits to the Toyota Center. Also, the underdog is 3-1 ATS in the last four.
Phoenix is on ATS runs of 9-1 after a non-cover, 4-0 when playing on one day of rest and 13-6-1 on Tuesday, and the Suns are off to a 5-2 start on the road (4-3 ATS). Houston has failed to cover in four straight games on Tuesday, but in addition to their 7-2 ATS run overall (all against the Western Conference), the Rockets have covered in six straight home games dating to last year’s Western Conference playoff series against the Lakers.
For the Suns, the “over” is on runs of 5-2 overall, 4-1 on the highway and 8-3 against the Southwest Division, but the under is 8-3 in their last 11 on Tuesday. Houston’s “over” streaks include 7-2 overall, 4-1 when playing on one day of rest, 5-0 after a SU win and 6-0 after an ATS triumph.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX and OVER
Detroit (5-5, 6-4 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (7-3, 3-7 ATS)
The Pistons begin a four-game, six-day Western Conference road trip with their only visit of the season to Staples Center to play the Lakers, who are looking to snap a rare two-game slide.
Detroit’s three-game SU winning streak and four-game ATS run came to a halt with Sunday’s 95-90 loss the Mavericks, coming up just short as a 4½-point home underdog. The Pistons have lost three of their last four road games (2-2 ATS), giving up an average of 104.8 ppg.
Los Angeles followed up Friday’s ugly 105-79 loss at Denver with Sunday’s 101-91 loss to the Rockets as a nine-point home favorite. The Lakers’ offense has disappeared in the second half of the last two games, managing just 23 post-halftime points against the Nuggets and 37 against Houston. The two-game slump comes on the heels of a six-game winning streak, and the Lakers have scored 80, 79 and 91 points in their three defeats while tallying 99 points or more in their seven victories (average of 108.6 ppg). Phil Jackson’s squad began the season with five straight non-covers, then cashed in the next three (all at home) before coming up short against the Nuggets and Rockets.
These teams have split their season series the last two years, with the Lakers going 3-1 ATS. After the home team won both meetings in 2008, the visitor took last year’s two contests, including Detroit’s 106-95 rout as 9½-point road underdog exactly one year ago. Prior to L.A.’s current 3-1 ATS run in this rivalry, the Pistons went 11-2-1 ATS in the previous 14 meetings, and with last year’s upset, they’re now 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight on the road against the Lakers.
Despite cashing in four of its last five overall, Detroit is on ATS declines of 4-12 after a SU defeat, 2-8 after a non-cover, 3-9 when playing on one day of rest, 2-5 against the Pacific Division and 3-8 against winning teams. The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last five against the Central Division and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after a SU defeat, but they’ve failed to cover in four straight games after a double-digit home loss.
The over is 5-1 in the Pistons’ last six overall, but the Lakers carry “under” trends of 17-8 overall, 21-8 at home, 9-2 against the Eastern Conference and 43-21-1 versus the Central Division. Finally, five of the last six meetings in this rivalry have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DETROIT and UNDER
Golden State Warriors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers will both be gunning for a victory on Tuesday when they meet at Quicken Loans Arena.
LeBron James completed a 3-point play in the dying seconds to give the Cavaliers a 107-103 win over the Jazz at Quicken Loans Arena Saturday night.
Utah covered as a 13-point road underdog while the final score played OVER the 190-point total.
Current streak:
Cleveland has won 4 straight games.
Team records:
Golden State: 3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS
Cleveland: 7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS
Golden State most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 7-3
Before playing Boston are 3-7
After playing Milwaukee are 5-5
After a loss are 5-5
Cleveland most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 8-2
Before playing Washington are 8-2
After playing Utah are 6-4
After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Golden State's last 9 games when playing Cleveland
Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Golden State is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
Cleveland is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Cleveland is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games at home
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Golden State
Cleveland is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games when playing at home against Golden State
Next up:
Golden State at Boston, Wednesday, November 18
Cleveland at Washington, Wednesday, November 18
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Miami Heat
The Oklahoma City Thunder and the Miami Heat will both be gunning for a victory on Tuesday when they meet at AmericanAirlines Arena.
The Thunder lost to the Clippers 101-93 as a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (184.5).
Kevin Durant scored a game-high 40 points for the Thunder, while Russell Westbrook chipped in with 17 points, nine rebounds and seven assists.
Heat guard Dwyane Wade sunk a 3-pointer with time expiring to down the Nets 81-80 at AmericanAirlines Arena Saturday.
New Jersey covered as a 12.5-point home underdog while the final score played UNDER the 178-point total.
Team records:
Oklahoma City: 5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS
Miami: 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS
Oklahoma City most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 2-8
Before playing Orlando are 1-9
After playing LA Clippers are 6-4
After a loss are 4-6
Miami most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 7-3
Before playing Atlanta are 7-3
After playing New Jersey are 4-6
After a win are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing Miami
Oklahoma City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Oklahoma City's last 10 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 8 games
Miami is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games at home
Next up:
Oklahoma City at Orlando, Wednesday, November 18
Miami at Atlanta, Wednesday, November 18
Indiana Pacers vs. New Jersey Nets
The Indiana Pacers and the New Jersey Nets will both be gunning for a victory on Tuesday when they meet at Izod Center.
Danny Granger dropped 29 points on the NBA's best defense, leading the Pacers to a 113-104 win over the Celtics at Conseco Fieldhouse Saturday night.
Indiana covered as a 7.5-point home underdog while the final score played OVER the 188.5-point total.
The Nets suffered a heart-breaking 81-80 loss to the Heat at AmericanAirlines Arena Saturday.
New Jersey covered as a 12.5-point home underdog while the final score played UNDER the 178-point total.
Current streak:
Indiana has won 4 straight games.
New Jersey has lost 10 straight games.
Team records:
Indiana: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS
New Jersey: 0-10 SU, 4-5-1 ATS
Indiana most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 7-3
Before playing New York are 4-6
After playing Boston are 3-7
After a win are 6-4
New Jersey most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 5-5
Before playing Milwaukee are 4-6
After playing Miami are 5-5
After a loss are 1-9
A few trends to consider:
Indiana is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games
Indiana is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Jersey's last 5 games
New Jersey is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Indiana
New Jersey is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Jersey's last 5 games at home
Next up:
Indiana home to New York, Wednesday, November 18
New Jersey at Milwaukee, Wednesday, November 18
Los Angeles Clippers vs. New Orleans Hornets
The Los Angeles Clippers and the New Orleans Hornets will both be gunning for a victory on Tuesday when they meet at New Orleans Arena.
The Clippers defeated Oklahoma City 101-93 as a 5.5-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (184.5).
Chris Kaman scored 25 points and grabbed seven rebounds for the Clippers and Baron Davis added 24 in the win.
The Hornets continue to slide, losing 121-98 to the Hawks at Philips Arena Saturday.
Atlanta covered as 12.5-point home favorites while the final score played OVER the 196-point total.
Current streak:
New Orleans has lost 3 straight games.
Team records:
Los Angeles: 4-7 SU, 3-8 ATS
New Orleans: 3-8 SU, 3-8 ATS
Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 3-7
Before playing Memphis are 2-8
After playing Oklahoma City are 4-6
After a win are 3-7
New Orleans most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 5-5
Before playing Phoenix are 5-5
After playing Atlanta are 5-5
After a loss are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the LA Clippers last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the LA Clippers last 6 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the LA Clippers last 17 games
LA Clippers are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
Next up:
LA Clippers at Memphis, Wednesday, November 18
New Orleans home to Phoenix, Thursday, November 19
Phoenix Suns vs. Houston Rockets
The Phoenix Suns and the Houston Rockets will both be trying to pick up a win on Tuesday when they battle at Toyota Center.
The Suns defeated Toronto 101-100 as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (232).
Amar'e Stoudemire scored a game-high 30 points to go along with eight rebounds for Phoenix, while Steve Nash added 23 points and nine assists in the win.
The Rockets defeated the Lakers 101-91 as a 9-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (200.5).
Aaron Brooks poured in a game-high 33 points for Houston and David Andersen added 19 points in the win.
Team records:
Phoenix: 9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS
Houston: 6-4 SU, 7-3 ATS
Phoenix most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 7-3
Before playing New Orleans are 7-3
After playing Toronto are 4-6
After a win are 8-2
Houston most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 5-5
Before playing Minnesota are 7-3
After playing LA Lakers are 6-4
After a win are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
Phoenix is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Houston
Phoenix is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games on the road
Phoenix is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Houston
Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games at home
Houston is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Houston's last 9 games
Next up:
Phoenix at New Orleans, Thursday, November 19
Houston at Minnesota, Wednesday, November 18
Toronto Raptors vs. Denver Nuggets
The Toronto Raptors and the Denver Nuggets will both be gunning for a victory on Tuesday when they meet at Pepsi Center.
The Raptors lost to Phoenix 101-100 as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (232).
Chris Bosh led Toronto with 25 points and 10 rebounds, while Hedo Turkoglu had 20 points.
The Nuggets held the Lakers to 23 points in the second half of a 105-79 victory on Friday. The Nuggets covered the 4-point spread, and the 184 points went UNDER the posted total of 212.
Carmelo Anthony tossed in 25 points and J.R. Smith added 209 in the win.
Team records:
Toronto: 5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS
Denver: 7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS
Toronto most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 3-7
Before playing Utah are 3-7
After playing Phoenix are 4-6
After a loss are 4-6
Denver most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 4-6
Before playing LA Clippers are 7-3
After playing LA Lakers are 4-6
After a win are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Toronto is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
Denver is 20-2 SU in its last 22 games at home
Denver is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing Toronto
Next up:
Toronto at Utah, Wednesday, November 18
Denver at LA Clippers, Friday, November 20
Chicago Bulls vs. Sacramento Kings
The fans at ARCO Arena will be treated to a game between the Chicago Bulls and the Sacramento Kings when they take their seats on Tuesday.
Jason Thompson netted 27 points with 11 rebounds for a double-double as the Kings defeated the Rockets 109-100 on Friday. The Kings won the game as 5-point underdogs, while the 209 points made it OVER the posted total of 207.
Beno Udrih chipped in with 22 points and Tyreke Evans netted 20 in the win.
Current streak:
Sacramento has won 4 straight games.
Team records:
Chicago: 5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS
Sacramento: 5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS
Chicago most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 5-5
Before playing LA Lakers are 6-4
After playing Philadelphia are 3-7
After a win are 4-6
Sacramento most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 4-6
Before playing Dallas are 1-9
After playing Houston are 5-5
After a win are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Sacramento
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Chicago is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
Sacramento is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Chicago
Sacramento is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Sacramento is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Sacramento is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Next up:
Chicago at LA Lakers, Thursday, November 19
Sacramento at Dallas, Friday, November 20
Detroit Pistons vs. Los Angeles Lakers
The Detroit Pistons and the Los Angeles Lakers will both be trying to pick up a win on Tuesday when they battle at STAPLES Center.
The Pistons lost to Dallas 95-90 as a 4.5-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (184.5).
Rodney Stuckey led the Pistons with 28 points and Will Bynum chipped in with 27 points.
The Lakers lost to Houston 101-91 as a 9-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (200.5).
Ron Artest led the Lakers with 22 points and Andrew Bynum had 21 points and 11 rebounds.
Current streak:
Los Angeles has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Detroit: 5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS
Los Angeles: 7-3 SU, 3-7 ATS
Detroit most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 5-5
Before playing Portland are 9-1
After playing Dallas are 8-2
After a loss are 2-8
Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 4-6
Before playing Chicago are 6-4
After playing Houston are 8-2
After a loss are 9-1
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing LA Lakers
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Detroit is 10-3 SU in their last 13 games when playing LA Lakers
LA Lakers are 21-4 SU in their last 25 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the LA Lakers last 6 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the LA Lakers last 14 games at home
LA Lakers are 13-4 SU in their last 17 games
Next up:
Detroit at Portland, Wednesday, November 18
LA Lakers home to Chicago, Thursday, November 19
Upset in the making
By SportsPic
Fresh off a 105-79 thrashing of Los Angeles Lakers the Denver Nuggets aim to remain undefeated at the Pepsi Center when they host visiting Toronto Raptors. The Nuggets having it pretty easy at home this season winning by an average 15.0 points per game have a little history on their side. Nuggets have won 9-of-10 meetings vs Raptors cashing seven of the contests (7-3 ATS) including a perfect 5-0 (3-2 ATS) hosting the boys from north of the border. The Raptors suffering a 101-100 loss at Phoenix Sunday but grabbing the cash as +7.5 point underdogs enter 2-4 (3-3 ATS) on the highway this season, 17-30 (20-26 ATS) the past thirty-seven away from Toronto and are 2-8 SU & ATS last ten on the road visiting a Northwest Division opponent. Still, Nuggets could be in dangerous betting territory, they're 2-11 against-the-spread after a 20+ point victory. Nuggets despite holding Lakers to 79 points in the last game sill allow an average 102.3 PPG on home court which could spell trouble vs Raptors the leagues 4th highest scoring team netting 106.9 PPG on 47.6% from the field, 40.8% from outside. Nuggets have not responded well at the betting window allowing foes =>100 points, they're 13-28 ATS including 7-12 ATS in front of the home crowd.
NBA Preview for 11/17
by Dan Bebe
I figure since just about everyone is writing about the same thing after the Stephen Jackson trade came down, I could at least separate myself by using a slightly more crass title!
Two days ago, the Golden State Warriors agreed to a trade with the Charlotte Bobcats that sent disgruntled team captain Stephen Jackson and Acie Law to the offensively inept Bobcats for Raja Bell and Vladimir Radmanovic. Here, I'll pause and let the madness sink in. First, the Warriors were so bent on unloading one of the most selfish team destroyers in the NBA that they were willing to take on VladRad and an injured Raja Bell. Second, the Bobcats somehow felt that getting rid of one of their grittiest defensive players (Bell) would make sense, if in return they got a guy whose track record is littered with aggression, money-grubbing, and turnovers. Right now, everyone remembers Jackson for his work in Golden State - that is, signing a multi-million dollar contract with a bad team, then being upset the team was bad (see Allen Iverson). But Jackson is way more idiotic than just his most recent transgression.
I lived in Northern California when the Warriors acquired "Jack," when the team tried to get tougher by unloading the soft, mushy bellies of Troy Murphy and Mike Dunleavy. Even at the time it seemed like a dangerous move: Jackson had been involved in the ugliest fight in NBA history, and an ill-fated night out with teammates, and he endeared himself to Warriors fans (albeit a little bit later) by getting an offseason tattoo of praying hands holding a revolver. Oh, and let's not forget Jackson arguing over money with the San Antonio Spurs after playing a nice role for them in a Championship run.
What's the Over/Under on how long Jackson makes it under Larry Brown? The Bobcats may be bad right now, but at least they're quietly bad.
Sports Wagering
Cavaliers/Warriors - Cavs by 15.5 at home with a total of 215. These monster spreads are generally a recipe for disaster no matter which side you pick. The Warriors defense is beyond disastrous, though it'll be interesting to see if this team steps it up with Stephen Jackson polluting the locker room. I really wish the Warriors first game without Jack was against a better matched opponent, since I think they'd blow them out, but against a team as good as the Cavs, I'm just not sure Golden State has the firepower to keep this thing close. As far as totals go, Cleveland has actually played three straight to the Over, even hitting 215 in their supposed defensive battle with the Heat. The results of this game, though, depend almost entirely on how the Warriors shoot the ball. Cleveland will get theirs, and Golden State has no problem with that, but the Warriors need to hit shots in the mid-to-high 40% range to get up over 100 against a good defensive team.
Nets/Pacers - The Pacers are favored by 3.5 on the road with a total of 188.5. This line doesn't respect the Pacers enough, in my opinion. Either oddsmakers feel this is a letdown spot for Indiana, or they're not getting the credit they deserve. This is the front end of a back-to-back, but tomorrow's game is in New York, so it's not as though Indy has a huge game to look forward to, and they're just starting to hit their stride. Granger is healing well from his nagging foot issues, and sliding Earl Watson into the starting lineup has gone just according to plan in terms of his distribution abilities. The Nets, meanwhile, are still trying to adapt to playing without Devin Harris, and lost a nailbiter to Miami in their last game. My philosophy on those types of contests is that the losing team in particular generally has a bit of a letdown after dropping one they should have won, and a young team like the Nets might be a bit flat. I think the Pacers win this one going away. The total feels a little low, but the Nets inability to score can pull any total down. Early lean to Indy, no early lean on the total.
Heat/Thunder - Oklahoma City is getting 5 points on the road with a total of 179.5. I really like the total, and I think if it keeps climbing, we might be able to find some value with the Under. At 179.5, though, it's a wait-it-out spot. Oklahoma had a big road win before coming home to fall to the Clippers, and now turns right around for another road contest, this time against the surprising Heat. Miami, as we mentioned above, escaped the Nets in their last game, and our dilemma hear is deciding whether that game was a sign that the Heat are due for a slump, or rather that Miami got away with laying an egg in one game and can go back to their normal prowess in this one. I'm actually inclined to believe that Miami is due for a slump. Oklahoma is a solid team this year, and just failed to grab defensive rebounds in a sloppy conclusion to that Clippers game. If they can go back to getting boards, they not only win their last game, but win this game outright, as well. Early lean to the Thunder, and early consideration given to the Under.
Hornets/Clippers - This line opened at Hornets by 3.5 and quickly dropped to Hornets by 2 with a total of 192. New Orleans tried desperately to function without Chris Paul, but got blown out late by Atlanta, and now they come home, still trying to figure out how to play under their new coach and without the only consistent gamer on the team. Considering New Orleans still got waxed despite Peja Stojakovic's best shooting game of the year, that does not bode well for this team going forward. Early lean to the Clippers, coming off a solid road performance in Oklahoma, to pick up one more win. I know, it hurt just to type it. The total of 192 is pretty sharp, in my opinion, though I think the Hornets will try to push the ball with Paul out of the lineup, as getting some easy buckets is really their only way of staying in the game. Very slight lean to the Over.
Rockets/Suns - This game is now at Rockets by 2 with a total of 220.5, and I must say, the sharps bet early on this one. Last night, I recommended buying Phoenix as a dog because I felt public money would push this line towards a pick throughout the day, and that could still happen, but the sharps moved the darn thing to Rockets by 2 before the public could even begin screwing with the line. Oh well, just an extra half-point to deal with. I will be posting updates about this game throughout the day. If it stays this strong in favor of the Rockets, I will likely recommend buying 2 units back on the Rockets for a 1-unit play on Houston. My thoughts on the actual game are similar to the sharps. This should be a close one, but Houston should prevail with Phoenix due to take a few games off after a spectacular early-season road trip last week. Houston is coming home off a nice win over a tired Lakers team (with Kobe at partial strength because of a sore groin). Of course, Phoenix has surprised some folks already this year, myself included, by playing as well as they did in all those road games. The total is going to be in the 220 range, and I'm just not comfortable trying to predict if it's going to end at 219 or 222.
Nuggets/Raptors - Denver is favored by 8.5 with a total of 219. This total has come down a couple points with the early money, and traveling to play in Denver is one of the toughest spots in the League. Toronto had a good game in Phoenix, a relatively lower-scoring game, in fact, and now has to take on another fast-paced team, but a slightly more chippy one. I think Denver wins this game straight up, but I'm not sure about that 8.5. Both of these teams are coming off decent games, which makes it tough to pick a side. The total was definitely too high at 221. At 219 we've lost some value, but I still think the Under has some promise. The Nuggets played to the Under in their last game, and Toronto is coming off 3 straight Unders, and I don't think the books have adjusted their numbers yet.
Kings/Bulls - This line has moved a full point off the opening line of a PICK, and Sacramento is now favored by a point with a total of 198. The Kings are steamrolling right now, and I'm inclined to believe they continue. Chicago beat a floundering Philadelphia team in their last game to snap a short 2-game losing streak, and aside from a clutch win in Cleveland, Chicago has not been terribly impressive on the road. Sacramento, meanwhile, has rattled off 4 straight wins since Kevin Martin went down, including a big road win in Utah and another big home win over the Rockets. I honestly thought the Rockets would be the well-coached veteran team that would snap Sacramento out of their euphoria, but I wisely laid off betting that game to see if the glow would hold, and it did. The Kings passed that test, and I think they pass another today with an easy 7 point win over the Bulls. This game has 2-star potential. The total of 198 feels just about right, with the Bulls playing a slower game and the Kings pushing the pace, this one should end somewhere in the middle, though I lean about 2-3 points to the Over.
Lakers/Pistons - This line is OFF as we wait and see about a handful of injuries. Kobe Bryant is playing with a sore groin, Andrew Bynum has been hammerdunking, but he's admitted his elbow still hurts a bit. The Pistons are still without Tayshaun Prince and Rip Hamilton, though I don't believe either is expected back. Oh, and the Lakers have no idea when Pau Gasol is going to play, so there's ample reason for this line to be OFF until the morning. I think most of it is about Kobe's groin, though (hah, hasn't THAT been the story before...). The Lakers are a great team, but without BOTH superstars, they just don't have the firepower to keep up with the better teams, and the Pistons, despite their rather one-dimensional offense right now (give it to Ben Gordon or Charlie Villanueva), they play great team defense, and should make scoring pretty tough on the Lakers. I think the Under has some value and they haven't even released the line yet. I also think Detroit has a great shot to cover, though with Kobe's injury such a huge factor, we can't do much until we hear more about him and see more from the oddsmakers.
Fantasy Advice
Rudy Fernandez - With Travis Outlaw shelved for a while, Fernandez is going to be the big-time bench player, and this guy can flat-out shoot. Expect 2-3 threes on a nightly basis, and 4 if the game goes to OT. I would recommend deploying Fernandez as a specialist; he's well-worth a spot on your team if you're hanging onto someone like Randy Foye.