Tuesday's Best NBA Bets
New Jersey Nets at New York Knicks (-5, 202)
Don’t look now but the New York Knicks have suddenly found their rhythm on offense, posting more than 110 points in six of their last eight. That offensive surge helped the club to wins in six of those matchups, while they’ve covered the number seven times over that stretch.
Now the Knicks are back to .500 at 9-9 on the year and they have co-captains Amar’e Stoudemire and Raymond Felton to thank.
Stoudemire dropped 37 points while adding 15 rebounds and seven assists in New York’s 125-116 win over the Detroit Pistons while playing on a sprained ankle. Felton chipped in with 23 points and 11 assists while battling the flu.
"He's great - just everything from the right thing to say at timeouts," Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni said of Stoudemire. "Just his persona and aura is really good. That's what a leader has to do. Never be down or cross with anybody and keep leading. Raymond was sick so he was real quiet on the bench and [Amar'e] filled the void. That's what great leadership is and it's not about making or missing last shots."
New Jersey averages a little less than 93 points per game and that won’t be enough Tuesday.
Pick: Knicks
Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers (+6.5, 194.5)
When you’ve been around as long as Shaquille O’Neal and have accomplished as much as he has, it only makes sense that he gets a free pass every now and then.
O’Neal missed Monday’s practice after he apparently got the times mixed up, but coach Doc Rivers says he won’t discipline Shaq.
"If you have a history of [missing practice], we deal with it," Rivers told reporters. "It's a human game, it always will be. I don't have a set rule for one guys or two guys. Each guy is an individual basis, is what I'm saying. You deal with it that way. You put money in the bank and, if you're a guy that tends to use up your money, then [the leash] is a little shorter."
That’s why Rivers is such a good fit with this veteran team – he gets it. The Celtics have won three straight but have only covered once over their last five. A good home date with the sputtering Cleveland Cavaliers should fix that.
Pick: Celtics
Celtics after NBA betting revenge at Cavs
By: Adam Markowitz
Back on October 27, the Boston Celtics suffered a terrible 95-87 defeat at Quicken Loans Arena to a new-look Cleveland Cavaliers squad. Head coach Doc Rivers referred to this team quite highly, remarking that it reminded him of the "heart and hustle" teams that he coached while he was with the Orlando Magic.
On Tuesday night, these same two teams will do battle in the same location at The Q, as the Cavs look to stop Boston's three-game winning streak.
The good news for the Celtics is that they are playing some efficient ball right now. They're shooting 40.7 percent from beyond the arc and 50.4 percent from the field as a team, the latter mark of which is the best in the NBA.
They're also playing great defense, holding teams to just 93.2 PPG, a number which has come down thanks to the fact that they are giving up just 86.7 PPG in this three-game winning streak.
The bad news is that injuries are really starting to pile up in a hurry. Delonte West broke his wrist against the New Jersey Nets last week, and he will probably be out for at least the rest of the regular season. Both Jermaine O'Neal and Kendrick Perkins have been dealing with knee injuries that have had them out of the lineup for weeks.
That's really only leaving six men to try to carry the load on a regular basis for Rivers. Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett, Rajon Rondo, Shaquille O'Neal and Glen Davis are getting the job done, but these six aren't going to be able to win the NBA Championship alone.
We love what Shaq is bringing to the table this year for the C's. He might not be playing every night, as he only has 11 starts and is averaging just under 23 minutes per game, but he is contributing 12.3 points and 7.0 boards per game.
Watch out for Rondo as well, as he already has a whopping 185 assists and 32 steals, and we know that he has the ability to go off for triple-doubles against anyone in the NBA.
The Cavaliers have only strung a winning streak together once this season, and they have yet to win back-to-back games at home without a road defeat in the middle. They have captured three straight both SU and ATS here at The Q and will hope to built on a 92-86 win over the Memphis Grizzlies over the weekend.
Cleveland might not have the stars like Boston does, but it really might be a deeper team. Ten different players are averaging at least 15 minutes per game, though only six of those have played in all 16 games this season.
Mo Williams, Daniel Gibson and Antawn Jamison are all shooting less than 43 percent from the field though, and if that doesn't improve, the Cavs are in a lot of trouble. Williams is the team's leading scorer in the absence of the departed LeBron James, scoring 16.2 PPG. He has scored at least 20 in three straight, including a double-double with 25 points and 12 helpers against the Grizzlies.
The Celtics have covered six of their last seven on the road and are 19-7 against the NBA spread in their last 26 games following an outing in which they allowed 100 or more points. Cleveland is just 5-13 ATS in its last 18 against teams with a winning record and 5-11 ATS in its last 16 against teams with a winning percentage of at least .600.
Boston might be just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 visits to Quicken Loans Arena, and the underdog might be 5-1 ATS in its last six overall, but these are trends that it is going to try to buck on Tuesday night in a revenge spot against the Cavaliers.
NBA RoundUp for 11/30
by Dan Bebe
Boston Celtics (-6.5) @ Cleveland Cavaliers with a total of 194.5
If you want to talk about a team potentially looking past an opponent...it's not who you'd expect! Most of the time when we talk about look-aheads, we're referring to the good team looking past the bad one. Not so much, here. The Boston Celtics play host to Portland tomorrow night, but there's no real rivalry there, and Portland's ongoing health concerns have, to some degree, dropped them out of the elite teams and dropped them back into what I suppose we can refer to as the top of the regular class. Meanwhile, Cleveland hosts Boston tonight, then, after a night to burn posters and spoof Nike ads, Cleveland hosts LeBron and the distressed Heat on Thursday night. We've already heard that the "Q" is going to have greater security for that game with the Heat, and if the rest of the universe is talking about a Cavs game 3 days away (or 2 by the time most of you read this), then I don't think we're going out on a limb to suggest that some of LeBron's former teammates might be looking to that one, as well. Add to that the fact that Boston rolled into Cleveland in their 2nd game of the regular season, sluggish as tree sloths after a season-opening win over the Heat, and you've got revenge on Boston's side. Yep, you heard right - I like the public CELTICS in this one, and the UNDER.
Detroit Pistons @ Orlando Magic (-11) with a total of 192
Both of these teams get tougher to figure out on a daily basis. One night, the Pistons hang tough with the Dallas Mavericks, only to lose (but cover) in the final few minutes. The next, Detroit gets blasted by the Grizzlies. The Pistons come home and throttle the Bucks, then lose to the Knicks in double-OT. Who shows up in this one? To Detroit's credit, they don't get much in the way of "easy buckets," so having to compete with Dwight Howard probably won't change their gameplan all that much. I guess that's a point for Detroit, but is it really? Both of these teams fire away from outside, so this cover could very well come down to who gets a few threes to drop. Over on the Orlando side, they beat the Heat (who hasn't?), got themselves an ATS push in a win over the Cavs, then narrowly clipped the Wizards. This team is equally unpredictable on a nightly basis. Put two unpredictable teams together and what do you get? That's right, a full diaper of fun. I do bring some tiny good news, though - these two teams play again in about 3 days, so we might be able to take something from this one and apply it to the next meeting. I'm pulling out the gun for this one, and with it pressed to the old noggin, I'd lean ORLANDO and the OVER.
Portland Trailblazers (-3) @ Philadelphia 76ers with a total of 192
Portland is quietly turning into a bit of a mess. After opening the year 4-1, this team is just 8-8 on the season, and only 2-5 in their last 7 games. The Blazers are coming off a very poor defensive showing in a 98-96 loss at New Jersey as a 4-point road favorite, and with every loss, the pressure mounts. I'm not about to go out on a limb and back a struggling Blazers team, even if it's against one of those weird NBA clubs that has plenty of talent but stinks, regardless. Yes, I'm calling you out, Sixers. If it's some small consolation for Philadelphia, at least they're worse on the road than at home this season. Philadelphia is coming off a nice win over those same Nets that just beat the Blazers, and while the transitive property would have the Sixers beating the Blazers, I expect this to be a pretty good game. Many will blindly back the Blazers, still viewing them as one of the best teams in the NBA, but injuries have really beaten this team down a peg or two, and they need to start grabbing wins where they can get them. Portland also heads to Boston for a back-to-back tomorrow, so we might be able to learn a little something about where the Blazers' focus is from this game. Still, if you're going to bet this game, I think you have to ride the momentum, which isn't necessarily on the side of Philadelphia, but it's nowhere to be found in Portland. Slight lean to PHILADELPHIA and the UNDER.
New Jersey Nets @ New York Knicks (-5) with a total of 202
After taking a few on the chin in Knicks games last week, I'd be lying if I said I had a great bead on this team. The Knicks started draining threes at a ridiculous clip, and, figuring that statistic would have to regress, it just never did. The Knicks did post one poor shooting night against the Hawks, but outside of that one, they've been pretty consistently 40% or above from beyond the arc, and that's definitely going to get it done. Add to that the fact that they shoot more than a handful, and 40% on a ton of threes is like shooting 60% from 2-pt range. That is tough to beat. The Nets are playing decent team defense, and their slow, plodding pace is helping them take advantage of a solid post player in Brook Lopez and Devin Harris's ability to get near the bucket off the dribble. I'm sure Avery Johnson would like to get some better production from other guys, but a few treys from Anthony Morrow and some offensive rebounds from Kris Humphries will just have to do, for now. I happen to believe this line is pretty darn close to where it should be, but I'll go out on a limb and say that the Nets can't keep up, offensively, and give a tiny nod to the KNICKS and because this is only the 2nd Nets game with a total over 200, I'll take the OVER.
Los Angeles Lakers (-5) @ Memphis Grizzlies with a total of 204
The Lakers are in that lull, again. This team is so damn streaky, and I keep saying in the blog, over and over again. Kudos to our buddy "Sink" for picking up on it and betting the Lakers to go on ATS runs. To put it in perspective, the Lakers have already had two 4-game ATS win streaks, and two 3-game ATS losing streaks, and after all that, are just 9-8 ATS overall. Well, they're in the midst of another 3-game ATS losing skid, but I can't help but wonder if that home loss to the Pacers was the wake-up call. Last time, a long road trip starting in Milwaukee woke them up. Will a 2-game trip to Memphis and Houston do the same, this time? Tough to say, though Memphis is likely to be fairly competitive. They're a stronger home team than road by a pretty wide margin, so while I wouldn't back the Grizzlies away from their building, this seems like a game they might get up for. Everyone always brings a big performance for the Lakers, and you know darn well that Memphis remembers the buzzer-beater Kobe put on them here, at home, in February of last year. Memphis was a 5.5-point underdog in that one, so this line is pretty close, but the fact that it's lower is a little disconcerting. Have we really lost a half-point of value because of the Lakers mini-skid? We need to start being a little more careful, but still a small lean to MEMPHIS and the OVER.
Indiana Pacers (-2.5) @ Sacramento Kings with a total of 192.5
We'll keep this one short and sweet. The Kings are flat-out terrible. Paul Westphal had an argument with DeMarcus Cousins at practice and sent him home, Carl Landry has been benched in favor of Jason Thompson, and it seems like the only player guaranteed to play on any given night is Tyreke Evans, and he's having a pretty miserable sophomore campaign. It's a disaster in Sactown. Indiana is coming off a win over the Lakers, and that's why we're seeing such an inflated number here, though I'm not sure it's inflated enough. The Bulls were a favorite of a similar number on the road, and playing their 4th in 5 nights, Chicago clamped down on the Kings, and they couldn't get anything going. Indiana has stepped up their defense, and I hate to be square here, but I lean to the PACERS and the UNDER.
San Antonio Spurs (-4) @ Golden State Warriors with a total of 213
The Warriors have quietly covered their last 2 games, and the return of David Lee has powered them back into a land of great confidence that they hadn't known while Lee was out. This is going to be a heck of a test for the Warriors, though, since the Spurs are playing like they're back to being the best in the League. Richard Jefferson is a factor, again, and Manu Ginobili is healthy for the first time in probably 3 years. George Hill is emerging as a solid guard, and Duncan is still Duncan. Golden State can score with most teams, but I just have trouble seeing how the Warriors stay out of foul trouble and win this game. This could very well end up being a close game, with the Spurs on a little west coast swing, and the Warriors working on 2 days of rest, but when I don't believe strongly that a particular team has a great shot to win the game, and is only getting 4 points, that's a tough roll of the dice. San Antonio has seemed will to run and score, so maybe the best idea here is to explore the total. This is a positively huge number for San Antonio, their highest total of the season by a full 1.5 points. Does that mean it's going over, or does that mean we have value playing the under? Tough game, all around. Small lean to the SPURS, and tiny lean to the OVER.
Betting Preview Los Angeles Lakers at Memphis Grizzlies
By: Jeff Mattingly
Los Angeles has dropped two consecutive games to the Utah Jazz and Indiana Pacers leaving many to wonder how a team that was averaging 112.5 points in its first 14 games is suddenly being held to 95.3 over the last three contests. “Focus, our energy and effort - we need to sustain it throughout the whole game,” said forward Lamar Odom. “It was disappointing after letting a team come back from 19.” The Lakers fell behind by 15 points and couldn’t recover in a 95-92 home loss to the Indiana Pacers, which was their first loss to Indiana at home since 1999. The team is 9-3 against the Western Conference this year, including a 3-2 mark on the road. Los Angeles is 3-0 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.
The Lakers lead the current season series with Memphis 1-0 after taking last season’s series 2-1. Los Angeles leads the all-time series 43-14, but are just 21-13 versus the Grizzlies since the team moved to Memphis. In their first meeting of the 2010-11 season, the Lakers scored an all-time series high 124 points in a 124-105 victory on November 2. Of the team’s 18 two-game skids since acquiring Pau Gasol on February 1, 2008, the team only once has dropped three consecutive games. Los Angeles is also playing the first game of a back-to-back set on Tuesday night, posting a 2-0 record in the first game and 2-0 mark in the second game.
Memphis enters off a 92-86 loss in Cleveland and has an even 5-5 mark versus the Western Conference this season, including a 3-2 mark at home. The Grizzlies have won three straight at FedEx Forum, averaging 106.0 points while shooting 50.8 percent from the floor. Many NBA experts believe their hot shooting didn’t carry over to their last game due to arriving in Cleveland at 4 a.m. on the second day of a back-to-back set. “I’m not going to get into excuses,” said Rudy Gay. “We’re basketball players.” Memphis recorded season lows in free throws made (8) and attempted (11). The squad is 0-3 ATS when playing with two days rest.
The Grizzlies 10 losses this season have come against teams with a combined 96-68 record. Memphis’ success relies heavily on its play inside the paint, leading the league for the second consecutive season currently, pouring in 47.1 points after tallying 51.4 a contest in 2009-10. A critical stat for tonight’s contest is the squad’s ability to rebound against the big frontline of the Lakers, posting a 4-1 record when out-rebounding its opponent, while going 3-9 otherwise.
Bettors will be interested in backing the Lakers due to their 4-1 ATS mark as a road favorite of 5 to 10.5 points, while the Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS as a home underdog of the same range.
Tips and Trends
Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers
CELTICS: (-6.5, O/U 194.5) Boston has won their past 3 games SU, and stand 12-4 SU on the season. The Celtics are tied with the Orlando Magic for the best record in the Eastern Conference this year. Boston has been impressive offensively this year, as they are averaging 100.5 PPG. PG Rajon Rondo has been amazing this year, as he's distributing the ball better than anyone in recent memory. Rondo is averaging an NBA high 14.2 APG, more than 4 APG more than anybody else in the league. As a result of Rondo's playmaking, Boston is the only team in the NBA shooting better than 50% from the field as a team. 6 different Celtics players are averaging double figures in PPG this year, led by Paul Pierce and his 19.7 PPG. Boston is 2-2 ATS as the listed road favorite this season. The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Boston is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Celtics are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 Tuesday games. The Celtics are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against a team with a losing SU record. Boston is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as the listed favorite.
Celtics are 6-1 ATS last 7 road games overall.
Over is 8-2 last 10 games against the Eastern Conference.
Key Injuries - C Jermaine O'Neal (knee) is out.
Projected Score: 98
CAVALIERS: Cleveland is putting forth their best effort of dealing with life after LeBron James. The Cavaliers are 7-9 SU this year, including 4-4 SU at home. Cleveland is 8-8 ATS overall this season, including 3-1 ATS as the listed home underdog this year. Only G Mo Williams is averaging more than 13 PPG this season, as he's averaging 16.2 PPG. F J.J. Hickson is coming into his own this year, as he's averaging 12.5 PPG and 5.4 RPG this season. The Cavaliers have been very inconsistent of late defensively, something they must change if they are going to beat the reigning Eastern Conference champions tonight. The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Cleveland is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games as a home underdog between 5 and 10.5 PTS. The Cavaliers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win.
Cavs are 5-13 ATS last 18 games against a team with a winning SU record.
Under is 21-8 last 29 games as a home underdog.
Key Injuriese - None Reported.
Projected Score: 97 (SIDE of the Day)