Miami (9-7, 7-9 ATS) at Portland (12-7, 10-9 ATS)
The slumping Heat begin a four-game Western Conference road trip with a visit to the Rose Garden for a tussle with the Trail Blazers, who have dropped two in a row.
Miami struggled offensively in consecutive home losses to Washington on Friday (94-84 as seven-point favorite) and Boston on Sunday (92-85 as a four-point underdog). The Heat are 3-6 SU and 1-8 ATS in their last nine games, with all three victories being one-point wins over Orlando (99-98), New Orleans (102-101) and New Jersey (81-80).
Portland has followed up a three-game winning streak with consecutive losses to Memphis (106-96 as an 11½-point home favorite on Friday) and Utah (108-92 as a five-point road ‘dog on Saturday). The Blazers, who have failed to cover in three straight games and six of their last eight after a 6-0 ATS run, gave up more than 100 points in their last two games after allowing just two of their first 17 opponents to reach triple digits. Also, prior to Friday’s shocking loss to Memphis, Portland had won six straight home games (4-2 ATS).
The Blazers swept the season series from Miami each of the last two years, cashing in all four games. In the last two meetings at the Rose Garden, Portland topped the Heat 112-106 as a 3½-point home underdog in 2007 and 106-68 as a 7½-point chalk in 2008. Still, the visitor is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 series clashes, and the winner has covered the spread in each of the last 11 meetings.
Miami is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 on Tuesday, but in addition to their 1-8 overall ATS slump, the Heat are on pointspread slides of 2-5 against winning teams, 1-4 versus the Western Conference, 0-5 after SU loss and 0-6 when playing after one day of rest. The Blazers have failed to cash in five of their last seven against the Eastern Conference, but they’re 8-3 ATS in their last 11 on Tuesday, 23-11 ATS in their last 34 as a favorite and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 when coming off two days of rest.
The over is 5-2 in the Heat’s last seven games overall, 25-10-1 in their last 36 after a SU defeat and 36-15-1 in their last 52 against Northwest Division foes, but they’re also on “under” runs of 4-1 on Tuesday and 5-2 against the Western Conference. Similarly, Portland carries “under” trends of 16-7 overall, 8-3 at home, 4-0 on Tuesday and 5-2 against the Southeast Division. However, the over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings between these squads in Portland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PORTLAND
New Orleans (7-10, 8-9 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (13-3, 8-8 ATS)
The surging Lakers shoot for their seventh straight win when they welcome the Hornets to the Staples Center.
New Orleans is coming off Sunday’s 112-96 loss at Sacramento as a four-point road underdog, ending a 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS run. Although the Hornets have taken four of their last six, both losses have come on the road, so they’ve now dropped four straight on the highway (1-3 ATS), giving up an average of 114.8 ppg. In fact, New Orleans is just 1-8 (3-6 ATS) as a visitor this year, with the lone victory coming against the Clippers. In those eight road defeats, the Hornets have surrendered an average of 111.3 ppg.
Los Angeles toyed with the winless Nets on Sunday, rolling 106-87 as a 14½-point home chalk, posting its sixth straight double-digit victory (5-1 ATS) while handing New Jersey its 17th straight loss to begin this season. The Lakers have averaged 108.5 ppg and allowed just 89.8 ppg during their winning streak, and since a 99-92 season-opening win over the Clippers, they’ve scored at least 100 points in their last 12 victories while netting just 83.3 ppg in their three losses.
One of the Hornets’ road losses came in Hollywood back on Nov. 8, a 104-88 setback as a 6½-point underdog. The Lakers have now taken five of the last six in this rivalry, but the teams have split the cash. Also, prior to last month’s matchup, New Orleans had cashed in five straight trips to Hollywood and the underdog had covered in 11 consecutive meetings, including nine outright upsets. The SU winner is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 head-to-head clashes.
In addition to covering in five of their last six overall, the Hornets have gotten the money in four of five as an underdog and five of six when catching 11 points or more.. On the flip side, New Orleans is on pointspread declines of 3-9 on the road, 4-11 against the Western Conference and 4-9 after a SU defeat. Los Angeles is riding ATS streaks of 5-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 7-2 after a spread cover, 5-2 against the Western Conference and 4-1 against teams with a losing record.
The Hornets are on “over” runs of 4-0-1 on the road, 4-1 on Tuesday and 3-1-1 against the Pacific Division. The Lakers are on “under” stretches of 13-5-1 at home, 7-2 against the Southwest Division and 8-2-1 after a spread-cover. Finally, the under is 6-2 in the last eight overall meetings between these teams, but seven of the last nine battles at Staples Center have gone over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS
Boston Celtics vs. Charlotte Bobcats
The Boston Celtics and the Charlotte Bobcats will both be gunning for a victory on Tuesday when they meet at Time Warner Cable Arena.
The Celtics defeated Miami 92-85 as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score went fell UNDER the posted over/under total (187).
Kevin Garnett scored 24 points for Boston and Kendrick Perkins chipped in with 14 points and 13 rebounds.
The Bobcats extended their win streak to three games by defeating the Wizards 90-78 on Saturday as 3.5-point underdogs. That game's 168 points went UNDER the posted total of 190.
Gerald Wallace had a double-double in the victory, pouring in 14 points with 14 rebounds.
Current streak:
Boston has won 4 straight games.
Charlotte has won 4 straight games.
Team records:
Boston: 13-4 SU, 7-10 ATS
Charlotte: 7-9 SU, 11-5 ATS
Boston most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 7-3
Before playing San Antonio are 7-3
After playing Miami are 6-4
After a win are 7-3
Charlotte most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 2-8
Before playing New Jersey are 3-7
After playing Washington are 4-6
After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
Boston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Charlotte
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Charlotte
Charlotte is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Charlotte is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Charlotte is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Boston
Charlotte is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
Next up:
Boston at San Antonio, Thursday, December 3
Charlotte at New Jersey, Friday, December 4
Washington Wizards vs. Toronto Raptors
The Washington Wizards and the Toronto Raptors will both be trying to pick up a win on Tuesday when they battle at Air Canada Centre.
Caron Butler had 19 points and seven rebounds in the Wizards' 90-78 loss to the Bobcats last time out. Oddsmakers had the Wizards as 3.5-point favorites, while the teams played UNDER the posted total of 190.
The Raptors lost to Phoenix 113-94 as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (229.5).
Chris Bosh led Toronto with 30 points and 17 rebounds, while Andrea Bargnani chipped in with 24 points.
Current streak:
Toronto has lost 3 straight games.
Team records:
Washington: 5-10 SU, 4-11 ATS
Toronto: 7-11 SU, 8-10 ATS
Washington most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 3-7
Before playing Milwaukee are 3-7
After playing Charlotte are 3-7
After a loss are 3-7
Toronto most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 5-5
Before playing Atlanta are 6-4
After playing Phoenix are 4-6
After a loss are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Washington's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Washington's last 13 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Washington's last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Toronto's last 13 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
Toronto is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Toronto is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Next up:
Washington home to Milwaukee, Wednesday, December 2
Toronto at Atlanta, Wednesday, December 2
Phoenix Suns vs. New York Knicks
The Phoenix Suns and the New York Knicks will both be trying to pick up a win on Tuesday when they battle at Madison Square Garden.
The Suns defeated Toronto 113-94 as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (229.5).
Jason Richard scored 22 points an grabbed nine rebounds for Phoenix, while Steve Nash added 20 points and 16 assists in the win.
The Knicks lost to Orlando 114-102 as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (205).
David Lee led the Knicks with 18 points and 12 rebounds, while Danilo Gallinari had 15 points.
Current streak:
Phoenix has won 4 straight games.
New York has lost 5 straight games.
Team records:
Phoenix: 14-3 SU, 12-5 ATS
New York: 3-14 SU, 7-10 ATS
Phoenix most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 8-2
Before playing Cleveland are 6-4
After playing Toronto are 5-5
After a win are 7-3
New York most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 2-8
Before playing Orlando are 2-8
After playing Orlando are 2-8
After a loss are 1-9
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing on the road against New York
Phoenix is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Phoenix is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Phoenix is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing New York
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New York's last 5 games when playing at home against Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New York's last 5 games at home
New York is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New York's last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Next up:
Phoenix at Cleveland, Wednesday, December 2
New York at Orlando, Wednesday, December 2
Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets
The Golden State Warriors and the Denver Nuggets will both be gunning for a victory on Tuesday when they meet at Pepsi Center.
Monta Ellis drained 45 points and had five steals, as the Warriors walked over the Pacers 126-107 on Monday night.
Golden State covered as 2.5-point home favorites, while the teams played OVER the 228.5-point total set by oddsmakers.
The Nuggets lost to Minnesota 106-100 as a 14.5-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (214).
Carmelo Anthony led the Nuggets with 32 points, while Kenyon Martin had 16 points and 14 rebounds.
Team records:
Golden State: 6-10 SU, 9-7 ATS
Denver: 12-5 SU, 9-8 ATS
Golden State most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 5-5
Before playing Houston are 8-2
After playing Indiana are 5-5
After a win are 3-7
Denver most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 5-5
Before playing Miami are 7-3
After playing Minnesota are 7-3
After a loss are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
Golden State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Golden State's last 18 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing Denver
Denver is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Golden State
Denver is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
Next up:
Golden State home to Houston, Thursday, December 3
Denver home to Miami, Thursday, December 3
Miami Heat vs. Portland Trail Blazers
The fans at Rose Garden will be treated to a game between the Miami Heat and the Portland Trail Blazers when they take their seats on Tuesday.
The Heat lost to Boston 92-85 as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (187).
Dwyane Wade led Miami with 27 points and Michael Beasley had 18 points.
The Trail Blazers were upended 108-92 by the Jazz last time out, as 5-point underdog. The 200 points made it OVER the posted total of 190.
Brandon Roy shot 7-for-13 from the field with 19 points, four rebounds and four assists in the loss.
Current streak:
Miami has lost 2 straight games.
Portland has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Miami: 9-7 SU, 7-9 ATS
Portland: 12-7 SU, 10-9 ATS
Miami most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 4-6
Before playing Denver are 5-5
After playing Boston are 4-6
After a loss are 6-4
Portland most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 6-4
Before playing Houston are 5-5
After playing Utah are 8-2
After a loss are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games
Miami is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Portland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing on the road against Portland
Miami is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games on the road
Portland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Portland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami
Portland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Portland's last 11 games at home
Next up:
Miami at Denver, Thursday, December 3
Portland home to Houston, Saturday, December 5
New Orleans Hornets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
The New Orleans Hornets and the Los Angeles Lakers will both be gunning for a victory on Tuesday when they meet at STAPLES Center.
The Hornets lost to Sacramento 112-96 as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (207.5).
David West led New Orleans with 24 points and Darren Collison had 11 points.
The Lakers defeated New Jersey 106-87 as a 15-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score caused this game to be a PUSH on the posted over/under total (193).
Kobe Bryant scored a game-high 30 points to go along with eight rebounds and seven assists for Los Angeles, while Pau Gasol added 20 points, nine rebounds and seven assists in the win.
Current streak:
Los Angeles has won 6 straight games.
Team records:
New Orleans: 7-10 SU, 8-9 ATS
Los Angeles: 13-3 SU, 8-8 ATS
New Orleans most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 6-4
Before playing Minnesota are 5-5
After playing Sacramento are 6-4
After a loss are 5-5
Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 6-4
Before playing Miami are 9-1
After playing New Jersey are 3-7
After a win are 9-1
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
LA Lakers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home
LA Lakers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
LA Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games
LA Lakers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Next up:
New Orleans home to Minnesota, Friday, December 4
LA Lakers home to Miami, Friday, December 4
Trend Report - Tuesday
By Ed Meyer
Celtics at Bobcats – The Celtics are 13-0 ATS (9.0 ppg) since February 25, 2008 after winning the previous matchup at home in which Paul Pierce shot better than 50% from the arc. The Bobcats are 11-0 ATS (8.3 ppg) since February 11, 2009 after a win in which they allowed less than 40% from the field. The League is 0-9 ATS (-8.4 ppg) since March 28, 2009 when seeking revenge for a loss as a dog in which they shot less than 60% from the free throw line. The Bobcats are 10-0 ATS (11.8 ppg) since November 16, 2008 after a win in which Gerald Wallace had more turnovers than assists. The Bobcats are 7-0 ATS (9.3 ppg) since November 19, 2007 at home with at least one day of rest when they held their opponent to fewer than 85 points in their last game. The Bobcats are 6-0 ATS (12.8 ppg) since December 26, 2008 after a win in which Raymond Felton took fewer than 10 shots. The Celtics are 6-0 OU (24.5 ppg) since February 15, 2002 on the road with at least one day of rest after a game on the road in which they shot at least twenty three-pointers and made less than a 25% of them. The Celtics are 0-5 OU (-19.1 ppg) since December 25, 2008 on the road when they won and covered as a favorite in each of their last two games. The League is 0-7 OU (-11.8 ppg) since March 06, 2007 at home with two or more days of rest off a win as an away dog in which they never trailed. The Bobcats are 0-5 OU (-20.2 ppg) since February 14, 2007 when playing an isolated home game (2+ rest before and after).
Suns at Knicks – The Suns are 11-0-1 ATS (6.4 ppg) since January 17, 2008 after a game on the road in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line. The Suns are 7-0-2 ATS (5.8 ppg) since January 28, 2007 on the road with at least a day of rest after a win on the road in which Amare Stoudemire was not the Suns' high scorer. The Suns are 7-0 OU (14.1 ppg) since January 24, 2007 after a double digit road win in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line. The Knicks are 8-0 OU (19.9 ppg) since January 24, 2002 at home versus the Suns.
Hornets at Lakers – The Hornets are 8-0 ATS (6.6 ppg) since February 13, 2005 on the road after losing the previous matchup in which David West played fewer than 30 minutes. The Lakers are 0-11 ATS (-10.5 ppg) since January 28, 2001 after a win against the Nets. The Lakers are 0-7 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since February 15, 2007 at home with at most one day of rest after a game in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line. The Lakers are 0-6 ATS (-8.4 ppg) since January 06, 2009 at home after a win at home in which Andrew Bynum took fewer than 10 shots.
Warriors at Nuggets –The Warriors are 0-8-2 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since November 20, 1995 as a dog after a double digit home win in which they shot at least 55% from the field. The Warriors are 0-7 ATS (-8.5 ppg) since December 07, 2007 with at most one day of rest after a game at home in which they had at least 12 steals. The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS (9.1 ppg) since March 03, 2000 with at most one day of rest after a home loss in which they blocked at least 10 shots. The Nuggets are 0-5-1 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since March 30, 2007 with at least a day of rest after a loss at home in which Carmelo Anthony took more than 20 shots. The Nuggets are 9-0 OU (14.2 ppg) since March 24, 2003 at home with at most one day of rest after a game at home in which they blocked at least 10 shots.
Wizards at Raptors – The Wizards are 7-0 ATS (7.9 ppg) since January 26, 2007 on the road with at least one day of rest after a double digit loss in which they had fewer than fifteen assists. The Wizards are 6-0 ATS (6.2 ppg) since December 21, 2006 on the road with two or more days of rest after a game in which they shot less than 40% from the field. The Raptors are 8-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) since March 06, 2005 after a double digit loss in which they shot at least twenty three-pointers and made less than a 25% of them. he Raptors are 0-7 ATS (-10.1 ppg) since January 23, 2004 with at most one day of rest after a double digit home loss in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points lower than their season-to-date average. The Raptors are 0-6 ATS (-14.6 ppg) since January 27, 2006 after a double digit home loss in which they shot less than 40% from the field. The Wizards are 0-9-1 OU (-12.3 ppg) since November 12, 2008 with at least one day of rest off a loss in which they never led. The Wizards are 0-7-1 OU (-18.9 ppg) since January 19, 2002 on the road with two or more days of rest after a double digit loss in which they had fewer than fifteen assists.
Heat at Trailblazers – The Heat are 10-0-1 ATS (8.0 ppg) since March 08, 2008 after a home loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. The Trailblazers are 7-0 ATS (11.3 ppg) since November 08, 2006 at home after a game on the road in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line. The Trailblazers are 10-0 ATS (12.4 ppg) since April 08, 2008 at home after a loss in which Joel Przybilla shot better than 66% from the field. The Trailblazers are 8-0 OU (15.8 ppg) since February 19, 2008 off a loss in which they never led.
NBA RoundUp for 12/1
By Dan Bebe
Sports Wagering
Raptors/Wizards - Toronto by 7 at home with a total of 212. Toronto, right now, is one of the easiest teams to handicap; they win by a bunch at home, and get their butts kicked on the road...well, except Phoenix, who beat them every which way but sideways in Canada. Luckily, the huge loss to the Suns does help us just a bit in adding value to the Raptors. My main concern in this one is that the Wizards are not exactly an overvalued team right now, and Toronto is doing very little to inspire confidence. The Raptors' defense might be the worst in the NBA, and I don't have to look at numbers to make a claim like that. Washington is coming off a 16-point loss at home to the Charlotte Bobcats, and they looked horrible in that one. They did beat Miami by 10 on the road, and narrowly escaped Philadelphia a game later, but Washington is really bouncing between solid performances and miserable ones. I don't like this spot a great deal for the Wizards, as they host the Bucks tomorrow, and their minds might be on getting home and trying to take down a beatable team. Can Washington score enough to keep up with Toronto? I'm not sure, but that line of 7 is right smack in the middle of the close-game/blowout window. The total of 212 is reachable, but again, it's dependent on Washington getting some easy buckets, and they seem to be just fine going 3 or 4 games at a time without throwing the ball inside the paint. Slight lean to Toronto on the side, even slighter lean to the Under, as Washington has been in a bit of a scoring drought lately.
Bobcats/Celtics - Charlotte getting 3.5 at home with a total of 178. This is an interesting line, and an interesting match-up. Charlotte has been playing outstanding basketball of late, and despite the Celtics' name recognition, I'm a bit surprised the line came out this high. Oddsmakers know they can inflate the Celtics' side, and that might be just the reason why. Initial public money is all over Boston, especially now that they've finally covered 2 games in a row, but Boston remains a disappointing 7-10 ATS. Boston HAS won 4 straight games, but only covered 2 of them, and really didn't look dominant in any of them, aside from what I'd classify as a pretty good 4th quarter, at home, against the lowly Raptors. The Bobcats, meanwhile, are cover machines. They're just 7-9 SU but have posted a wallet-fattening 11-5 mark ATS, including winning and covering 4 straight games. Charlotte doesn't play again until the 4th of the month, and you just know this is a statement game for the up-and-coming youngsters. Boston will probably know they have a target on them tonight, but giving 3.5 points on the road when you're not playing good defense is a recipe for a Celtics disaster. Truthfully, the Bobcats are the team playing the better defense right now -- on their current 4-game win streak, they have held all 4 opponents under 90 points. Medium-size lean to the Bobcats, very slight lean to the Over.
Knicks/Suns - Knicks collecting 7 points at home with a total of 225.5. This is a game I'm just simply not a huge fan of, with Phoenix winning and covering 4 straight, but with a game in Cleveland tomorrow. Classic look-ahead spot for the Suns. In most situations, I'd love to jump on a home dog getting 7 points in such a spot, but this is the Knicks we're talking about here. The Knicks have lost 5 straight games, though, to be fair, they've covered in 3 of the 5. Still, that is a dangerous spot, expecting a team to lose, but cover. They played a great game in Denver, but came up short, then Orlando rolled into New York and beat the Knicks by 12. You really just don't know what you're going to get from them. I'm not going to get into a long story about how this game could play out, but suffice it to say I have a weak lean to New York, and if the line move justifies, we might make a tiny play on them, but no conclusions right now. Phoenix, by the way, has held 3 of their last 4 opponents under 100 points, so this game is really looking to be all sorts of crazy.
Nuggets/Warriors - Denver by 13 with a total of 233.5. First and foremost, I always like to fade teams playing the second half of back-to-back in Denver. The altitude usually takes a serious toll on the players by the 3rd quarter. That doesn't mean we're just going to throw a unit on the Nuggets for the hell of it, because really, as a 13-point favorite, you've really got to "do work" to cover, but it's certainly a move in Denver's direction. The Nuggets are coming off a rare home loss, and to the T'Wolves, no less, so George Karl should have them pretty riled up to bounce back against a suddenly surging Warriors club. Denver's 41% shooting in that game was their worst game since November 11, a road loss to the Bucks, and you just get the feeling they didn't take Minnesota seriously, and got punished for it. If you're not taking the Warriors seriously right now, you'll get slapped again, and I don't think Denver makes that mistake two games in a row. Since the departure of Stephen Jackson, the Warriors are legitimately beating the teams they should beat, losing on the road to teams that are better than them, but also picking up a nice upset or two on their home floor. This situation, though, does not favor them at all. Golden State had a huge second half to blow out the Pacers last night, but it took another superhuman effort from Monta Ellis, and you just get the feeling trying to go into the thin air is going to slow him down just enough for the Nuggets to clamp down. Lean to Denver, and slight lean to the Under, since I don't see the Warriors breaking 210 when they're this tired.
Blazers/Heat - Portland by 7 at home with a total of 185.5. This is the game where I had the strongest initial lean to one side, and that was to Portland. The Blazers, at 7-3 at home, are still one of the toughest clubs to take down on their court -- luckily for us, Portland LOST their last home game to Memphis, then got straight whacked upside the head in Utah the following night. You just have to love when you can get value on a giant, strong team like the Blazers, and this is the very rare occasion when, even at -7, they're still a bargain. I'll try to explain myself here. Portland had won 3 straight games before the 2 losses, and suddenly found themselves trying to beat double-digit home spreads, never an easy task, especially for a team that runs into offensive stagnation issues from time to time. Now, suddenly, that number has dropped back into the singles against a supremely overrated team. I really can't figure why the Heat continue to get as much credit as they do. Miami covered in 6 of their first 7 games, and the public just keeps backing them! It's mind-boggling, since Miami has FAILED to cover in 8 of their last 9, the one ATS victory being the 1-point miracle in Orlando. Miami's defense, the piece of the puzzle that was allowing them to stay in games and win them, has failed them, and I just don't think they have the size or talent (besides Wade, of course) to compete with Portland. Strong lean to Blazers, and if we get some line move confirmation, we'll get down on it. I don't like the total much in this one, though I lean Under with Miami potentially scoring around 85.
Lakers/Hornets - Lakers by 13.5 with a total of 205.5. Well, this is starting to get ridiculous. The Lakers just keep finding ways to cover giant spreads, and I, for one, am thinking I'll stay away from this freight train. The Lakers have been a double-digit favorite in 4 of their last 6 games, and a favorite of 8.5 and 9.5 in the other two games, and they've covered in 5 of 6. It seems like getting Pau Gasol back has really inspired them, and Ron Artest has turned out to be that defensive bulwark that won't let his teammates relax when they take a 17-point lead. I had the pleasure of watching a few of the recent Lakers games while in LA for Thanksgiving, and it seemed like every time LA had a chance to go for the jugular, it was Ron Artest right at the helm of the attack. He nailed a 3 against the Nets to push a 17-point lead to 20, hit a driving lay-up a few minutes later to keep the lead over 20 points, then tossed a perfect lob to Gasol for another 2 easy points. Last year, and even at the start of this season, a Lakers -13.5 line would be an automatic fade, but I'm just staying away from these monster home lines until the Lakers start to get a little over-confident again. What can you say about the Hornets, really? They won a few games using smoke and mirrors, but got clubbed in Sacramento, and remain a dismal 1-8 away from home. No lean on the side in this one, slight lean to the Under with the way the Lakers have been shutting teams down.
Tips and Trends
New Orleans Hornets at Los Angeles Lakers
Hornets: New Orleans is playing their best basketball of the season. They've won 4 of their past 6 games SU, including 5 of 6 ATS. On the road, the Hornets are only 3-6 ATS. 6 players average double digits for the Hornets, led by PG Chris Paul. Paul averages nearly 24 PPG, including 9 assists per game. Backup PG Darren Collison has played admirably in Paul's absense, scoring in double digits in 9 straight games. New Orleans lost earlier this season to the Lakers by 16 points at home.
Hornets are 5-1 ATS last 6 games as a road underdog of 11 points or greater.
Over is 4-0-1 last 5 road games.
Key Injuries - PG Chris Paul (ankle) is out.
F Peja Stojakovic (personal) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 99
Lakers (-13.5, O/U 206): Lakers are 13-3 on the season SU, and have 2 different winning streaks of 6 games this year. Los Angeles has won 5 of their last 6 games ATS, with every game at least a favorite of -8.5. G Kobe Bryant is 2nd in the NBA in scoring, at 29.5 PPG. F Pau Gasol is averaging 18 PPG since his return from injury. The Lakers are a perfect 5-0 SU with Gasol back in the lineup. Defensively, the Lakers are the best in the NBA at opposing field goal percentage, at 42%.
Lakers are 8-2 ATS last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 5-0-1 last 6 games as a home favorite of 11 points or greater.
Key Injuries - F Luke Walton (finger) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 112 (OVER - Total of the Day)