Portland (17-12, 14-14-1 ATS) at Dallas (20-8, 15-13 ATS)
The Blazers continue a tough four-game road trip against playoff-caliber opponents when they visit American Airlines Center for a battle with the red-hot Mavericks.
Portland followed up Saturday’s 92-83 loss at Orlando as an 8½-point underdog with Sunday’s 102-95 upset victory at Miami as a five-point pup. The Blazers have won three of their last four (2-1-1 ATS), but since starting out 8-3 SU, they’ve played inconsistent basketball, splitting their last 18 contests while going 6-11-1 ATS. During this 18-game stretch, Nate McMillan’s team is just 2-7 on the highway (3-6 ATS).
With leading scorer Dirk Nowitzki out because of an elbow injury, Dallas still got past LeBron James and the Cavaliers on Sunday, winning 102-95 as a 3½-point home underdog. The Mavericks have won six of their last seven games, and they’re on a 14-5 SU roll going back to mid-November. On the down side, since cashing in nine of their first 12 contests, Dallas is in a 6-10 ATS freefall. Also, Sunday’s upset win over Cleveland snapped the team’s 0-8 ATS drought at home.
The underdog has covered in eight of Dallas’ last 12 games overall and each of its last nine at home. Also, the Mavericks have had back-to-back spread-covers just once in their last 16 games (and none in the last 12), while the Blazers have cashed in consecutive contests just twice in their last 18 contests.
The Mavericks swept the season series from Portland last year, going 3-0 ATS, though all three games were decided by a total of 17 points. The home team has won seven of the last nine in this rivalry, the underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight head-to-head clashes. The SU winner has covered in each of the last five meetings.
In addition to their ATS ruts of 6-11-1 overall and 3-6 on the road, the Trail Blazers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five against Western Conference opponents. Dallas’ ATS funks include 1-8 at home, 1-4 against the Western Conference and 1-4 when coming off a spread-cover, but the Mavericks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 versus opponents with a winning record.
This has been a low-scoring rivalry of late, with 13 of the last 18 meetings overall and eight of the last nine in Dallas staying under the total. Additionally, the under is on runs of 4-1 for the Mavs against Western Conference opponents, 4-1 for the Mavericks on Tuesday, 13-4 for Portland against winning teams, 9-2 for Portland versus Southwest Division opponents and 5-1 for Portland on Tuesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Oklahoma City (13-13, 15-11 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (22-4, 12-14 ATS)
The Lakers look to extend an 11-game winning streak against the Thunder franchise when they return home to the Staples Center after a successful five-game road trip.
Oklahoma City has been idle since Saturday, when it fell 95-90 at Houston as a 3½-point underdog. The Thunder have lost four of their last five (2-3 ATS) – averaging just 93.4 points per game in the process – and the slump follows a 5-2 SU and ATS run. Now 26 games into the 2009-10 campaign, Oklahoma City hasn’t had consecutive non-covers all season, nor has it cashed in more than two games in a row all season. Also, the SU winner is 24-2 ATS in Thunder games this year.
Los Angeles’ longest road swing to date this season began with a 102-94 loss at Utah as a two-point underdog – a defeat that snapped the team’s 11-game winning streak. But the Lakers closed the journey by ripping off four straight wins in Chicago, Milwaukee, New Jersey and Detroit. The latter two results were Saturday’s 103-84 victory over the lowly Nets as a 12½-point favorite and Sunday’s 93-81 win over the Pistons as a 7½-point chalk. Those spread-covers ended an 0-4 ATS slide for Phil Jackson’s club.
Going back to their days as the Seattle SuperSonics, the Thunder franchise has lost 11 in a row to Los Angeles, including two defeats last month. On Nov. 3, L.A. went to Oklahoma City and pulled out a 101-98 overtime victory, failing as a seven-point road chalk, then scored a 101-85 win on Nov. 22, easily covering as a 10½-point favorite.
The Lakers are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings (all as favorite) with Oklahoma City after failing to cover in the previous four clashes (all as a favorite). Conversely, despite coming up short in their first trip to Hollywood this year, the Thunder are still 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 visits to the Staples Center.
Oklahoma City is on pointspread surges of 35-16 after a SU defeat, 26-9 after a non-cover (including 10-0 this year), 16-5 on Tuesday and 4-0 after two days of rest. The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six on Tuesday, but they’ve cashed in nine of 13 after a spread-cover and four of five following a road trip of seven or more days.
These teams have stayed under the total in four of their last five meetings overall and four of their last five tussles in Los Angeles. Furthermore, the Lakers are on “under” runs of 7-1 overall, 5-2-1 at home, 6-1 after a SU win, 4-0 against Western Conference opponents and 5-0 against the Northwest Division, and the under is 5-1-1 in Oklahoma City’s last seven overall, 4-1 in its last five on the highway, 6-0 in its last six Western Conference contests and 3-1-1 in its last five against the Pacific Division.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA CITY and UNDER
Detroit Pistons vs. Charlotte Bobcats
The Detroit Pistons and the Charlotte Bobcats will both be trying to pick up a win on Tuesday when they battle at Time Warner Cable Arena.
The Pistons lost to the Lakers 93-81 as a 7.5-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (189).
Rodney Stuckey led Detroit with 16 points and Jonas Jerebko deposited 15 points.
The Bobcats lost to New York 98-94 as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (196).
Raymond Felton led Charlotte with 27 points, nine rebounds and seven assists, while Tyson Chandler had 13 points and 14 rebounds.
Current streak:
Detroit has lost 4 straight games.
Charlotte has lost 3 straight games.
Team records:
Detroit: 11-16 SU, 14-12-1 ATS
Charlotte: 10-16 SU, 16-10 ATS
Detroit most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 5-5
Before playing Toronto are 7-3
After playing LA Lakers are 5-5
After a loss are 2-8
Charlotte most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 4-6
Before playing Oklahoma City are 4-6
After playing New York are 3-7
After a loss are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
Detroit is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Charlotte
Detroit is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Charlotte
Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Charlotte
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing Charlotte
Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Charlotte's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Charlotte's last 5 games at home
Charlotte is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
Next up:
Detroit home to Toronto, Wednesday, December 23
Charlotte at Oklahoma City, Saturday, December 26
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Washington Wizards
The Philadelphia 76ers and the Washington Wizards will both be trying to pick up a win on Tuesday when they battle at Verizon Center.
The 76ers were upset 112-107 in overtime by the Clippers last time out, as 3.5-point favorites. The game's 219 points sailed OVER the posted total of 193.
Andre Iguodala had 20 points with nine rebounds and seven assists for the 76ers.
The Wizards were defeated 121-95 by the Suns last time out, as 10.5-point underdogs. The 216 points went UNDER the posted total of 218.5.
Gilbert Arenas had 22 points for the Wizards, and Nick Young collected 20 in the loss.
Team records:
Philadelphia: 7-20 SU, 11-16 ATS
Washington: 8-17 SU, 8-17 ATS
Philadelphia most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 7-3
Before playing Utah are 6-4
After playing LA Clippers are 5-5
After a loss are 2-8
Washington most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 2-8
Before playing Milwaukee are 3-7
After playing Phoenix are 4-6
After a loss are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Philadelphia is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Washington
Philadelphia is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games at home
Washington is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Next up:
Philadelphia at Utah, Saturday, December 26
Washington at Milwaukee, Wednesday, December 23
Chicago Bulls vs. New York Knicks
The Chicago Bulls and the New York Knicks will both be gunning for a victory on Tuesday when they meet at Madison Square Garden.
Luol Deng poured in 26 points for Chicago in its 102-98 loss to Sacramento on Monday night.
Sacramento cashed as 4.5-point road underdogs, while the game played OVER the 198-point total listed by oddsmakers.
The Knicks defeated Charlotte 98-94 as a 6.5-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (196).
Wilson Chandler netted 26 points for the Knicks, while David Lee chipped in with 15 points and 15 rebounds.
Current streak:
New York has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Chicago: 10-16 SU, 8-16-2 ATS
New York: 10-17 SU, 13-14 ATS
Chicago most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 3-7
Before playing New Orleans are 2-8
After playing Sacramento are 7-3
After a loss are 3-7
New York most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 3-7
Before playing Miami are 3-7
After playing Charlotte are 2-8
After a win are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing New York
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against New York
Chicago is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games when playing New York
Chicago is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games
New York is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New York's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 6 games when playing Chicago
Next up:
Chicago home to New Orleans, Saturday, December 26
New York home to Miami, Friday, December 25
Indiana Pacers vs. Boston Celtics
The Indiana Pacers and the Boston Celtics will both be trying to pick up a win on Tuesday when they battle at TD Garden.
Roy Hibbert went for 16 points and seven boards for Indiana in its 84-81 loss to Milwaukee on Monday night.
Milwaukee cashed as 1-point road underdogs, while the teams played UNDER the 198.5-point total set by oddsmakers.
The Celtics defeated Minnesota 122-104 as a 14-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (196).
Paul Pierce poured in 29 points for Boston and Ray Allen added 20 points in the win.
Current streak:
Indiana has lost 3 straight games.
Team records:
Indiana: 9-17 SU, 10-16 ATS
Boston: 21-5 SU, 12-14 ATS
Indiana most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 7-3
Before playing Atlanta are 4-6
After playing Milwaukee are 5-5
After a loss are 3-7
Boston most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 4-6
Before playing Orlando are 7-3
After playing Minnesota are 6-4
After a win are 9-1
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indiana's last 7 games on the road
Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Indiana's last 12 games when playing on the road against Boston
Indiana is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Boston is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
Boston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Indiana
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Boston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Indiana
Next up:
Indiana home to Atlanta, Saturday, December 26
Boston at Orlando, Friday, December 25
Atlanta Hawks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
The Atlanta Hawks and the Minnesota Timberwolves will both be trying to pick up a win on Tuesday when they battle at Target Center.
The Hawks were defeated 101-98 by the Bulls last time out, as 4.5-point favorites. The 199 points made it OVER the posted total of 194.5.
Joe Johnson poured in a game-high 40 points for the Hawks.
The Timberwolves lost to Boston 122-104 as a 14-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (196).
Jonny Flynn led Minnesota with 21 points and Al Jefferson had 20 points and 11 rebounds.
Team records:
Atlanta: 19-7 SU, 19-7 ATS
Minnesota: 5-23 SU, 13-14-1 ATS
Atlanta most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 2-8
Before playing Denver are 3-7
After playing Chicago are 7-3
After a loss are 6-4
Minnesota most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 4-6
Before playing New Jersey are 4-6
After playing Boston are 7-3
After a loss are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
Minnesota is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games
Next up:
Atlanta at Denver, Wednesday, December 23
Minnesota at New Jersey, Wednesday, December 23
Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies
The Golden State Warriors and the Memphis Grizzlies will both be trying to pick up a win on Tuesday when they battle at FedExForum.
Monta Ellis netted a team-high 30 points in the Warriors' 118-109 loss to the Wizards last time out. The Wizards were 3-point favorites in that game, while the 227 points made it OVER the posted total of 221.5.
Stephen Curry finished with 27 points and eight rebounds.
The Grizzlies defeated Denver 102-94 as a 1.5-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (208.5).
Zach Randolph scored 32 points to go along with 24 rebounds for Memphis and Rudy Gay added 19 points in the win.
Current streak:
Golden State has lost 5 straight games.
Memphis has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Golden State: 7-19 SU, 12-13-1 ATS
Memphis: 12-15 SU, 14-13 ATS
Golden State most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 2-8
Before playing New Orleans are 4-6
After playing Washington are 4-6
After a loss are 2-8
Memphis most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 2-8
Before playing Dallas are 4-6
After playing Denver are 2-8
After a win are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games on the road
Golden State is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Memphis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 7 games when playing Memphis
Memphis is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Memphis is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Memphis's last 7 games when playing Golden State
Next up:
Golden State at New Orleans, Wednesday, December 23
Memphis at Dallas, Saturday, December 26
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Houston Rockets
The Los Angeles Clippers and the Houston Rockets will both be trying to pick up a win on Tuesday when they battle at Toyota Center.
Chris Kaman led Los Angeles with 23 points and 15 rebounds in its 103-87 loss to San Antonio on Monday night.
San Antonio covered as 9-point home favorites, while the game played UNDER the 194-point total set by oddsmakers.
The Rockets held off a late surge to defeat the Thunder 95-90 on Saturday. The Rockets managed to cover the 3.5-point spread, while the 185 points went UNDER the posted total of 195.5.
Trevor Ariza tossed in 31 points for the Rockets, and Luis Scola added 16 points in the win.
Current streak:
Houston has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Los Angeles: 12-15 SU, 10-17 ATS
Houston: 16-11 SU, 17-10 ATS
Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 1-9
Before playing Phoenix are 2-8
After playing San Antonio are 2-8
After a loss are 6-4
Houston most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 9-1
Before playing Orlando are 5-5
After playing Oklahoma City are 7-3
After a win are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 7 of the LA Clippers last 8 games when playing on the road against Houston
LA Clippers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the LA Clippers last 6 games when playing Houston
LA Clippers are 6-19 SU in their last 25 games on the road
Houston is 9-1 SU in their last 10 games when playing LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Houston's last 8 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
Houston is 10-2 SU in their last 12 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
Houston is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games at home
Next up:
LA Clippers at Phoenix, Friday, December 25
Houston at Orlando, Wednesday, December 23
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Dallas Mavericks
The Portland Trail Blazers and the Dallas Mavericks will both be gunning for a victory on Tuesday when they meet at American Airlines Center.
The Trail Blazers defeated Miami 102-95 as a 5-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (186.5).
Brandon Roy scored 28 points for Portland and LaMarcus Aldridge added 23 points in the win.
The Mavericks defeated Cleveland 102-95 as a 4-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (188).
Tim Thomas scored 22 points for Dallas and Jason Terry added 19 points in the win.
Team records:
Portland: 17-12 SU, 15-13-1 ATS
Dallas: 20-8 SU, 15-13 ATS
Portland most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 4-6
Before playing San Antonio are 2-8
After playing Miami are 4-6
After a win are 4-6
Dallas most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 7-3
Before playing Memphis are 9-1
After playing Cleveland are 8-2
After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Portland's last 9 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Portland's last 18 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Portland's last 7 games
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Portland
Dallas is 18-2 SU in its last 20 games when playing Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Dallas's last 9 games when playing at home against Portland
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Next up:
Portland at San Antonio, Wednesday, December 23
Dallas home to Memphis, Saturday, December 26
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Lakers
The Oklahoma City Thunder and the Los Angeles Lakers will both be trying to pick up a win on Tuesday when they battle at STAPLES Center.
The Thunder were defeated 95-90 by the Rockets last time out, as 3.5-point underdogs. That game's 185 points went UNDER the posted total of 195.5.
Trevor Ariza tossed in 31 points for the Rockets, and Luis Scola added 16 points in the win.
The Lakers defeated Detroit 93-81 as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (189).
Kobe Bryant scored a game-high 28 points for Los Angeles and Andrew Bynum added 16 points in the win.
Current streak:
Los Angeles has won 4 straight games.
Team records:
Oklahoma City: 13-13 SU, 15-11 ATS
Los Angeles: 22-4 SU, 12-14 ATS
Oklahoma City most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 6-4
Before playing Phoenix are 2-8
After playing Houston are 5-5
After a loss are 8-2
Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 9-1
Before playing Cleveland are 2-8
After playing Detroit are 7-3
After a win are 9-1
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 7 games
LA Lakers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home
LA Lakers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
LA Lakers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
LA Lakers are 15-1 SU in their last 16 games
Next up:
Oklahoma City at Phoenix, Wednesday, December 23
LA Lakers home to Cleveland, Friday, December 25
NBA RoundUp For 12/22
By Dan Bebe
Sixers @ Wizards - Wizards by 3 with a total of 204. Washington returns home off a 4-game, grueling 1-3 road trip for, that's right, one freaking game. Then, Washington heads back out for a 3-game roadie that starts tomorrow in Milwaukee as soon as this game ends. There are a couple ways to look at this spot. Washington's first game at home after a long road trip might lead to some lax play, but the fact that they're not really settling in at home might mean that this handicapping angle goes out the window. The Wizards snapped a 6-game losing streak in Golden State on that recently-completed road trip, but then got positively pummeled in Phoenix in their most recent game. In terms of value, we're getting a decent one with the home team, though the expectations of both of these teams are that they should be better than they are. I actually think the Sixers are playing better basketball lately than the Wizards, and given that Philly is actually a better road team than a home team, this might be a spot where they can take advantage of the Wizards fatigue. I think there's some value on the total, as well, as Washington's liable to take a quarter off, or two, so I think the Under might be in play. Leans to Philly and Under.
Pistons @ Bobcats - This line is OFF. Can't help but look at the Bobcats right off the bat. We all know Charlotte's home/road split, and unfortunately, oddsmakers know it, too, so we need to be careful when this line comes out. Also, while the Pistons won and covered 5 straight just a week ago, they've now lost and failed to cover 4 straight, so the value is going to be on the Pistons side, we just need to decide if they actually have a shot of competing. One of these days Detroit will get some of their players back, but until then, they're going to have an awfully tough time competing, especially on the road. Detroit is 3-11 away from home, 6-7 ATS, and I would expect to see them as a 5-6 point dog in this one. Charlotte continues to stink on the road, and they're coming off another road loss, this time in New York. That being said, they did lose their last home game, so my hope is that the public sees Charlotte's home loss as a trend and not an aberration. I'm inclined to lean Charlotte, but of course, we need to see if we can get any value on the line. The total will be relatively low, and I'd look at a potential Over.
Pacers @ Celtics - Celtics by 13 with a total of 203. Well, Boston surprised the heck out of me by covering in their last home game against the Timberwolves, but is that the start of an at-home romp for the Celtics, or was it just that Boston felt the need to show naysayers that the Wolves' keeping their previous meeting close was because Boston wasn't taking them seriously. These two teams have played before, too, and Indiana beat Boston in the Midwest, 113-104. You can bet Boston will not be pleased. Indiana is coming off a low-scoring clunker of a loss at home to the Bucks last night, so they're going to be fatigued, and even though in games with enormous spreads like this one I always look to the dog first, I don't think I can find enough reasons out there to take Indy. It's Celtics or nothing on the side. For the total, I like the Under, but I'm also concerned by the total coming out this high. Boston scored 122 in their last game, so perhaps we're getting an inflated line, but in an effort to make sure we're not going to get suckered, I'll keep my eyes on this one.
Bulls @ Knicks - New York by 5.5 with a total of 197. Tough spot for Chicago, coming off a colossal meltdown last night. The Bulls led the Kings by over 35 points, and got outscored 33-10 in the 4th to cap off one of the most disappointing losses for any team this year. That sort of reverse momentum has a tendency to carry over, and I want to make sure we don't get too caught up in semantics. Sometimes we need to make sure we simplify handicapping, and here, you have to look at New York unless something convinces us otherwise. The Knicks have quietly gone 7-3 this month (6-4 ATS), and are coming a win over the Bobcats that just didn't quite cover. I also like the fact that the Knicks lost in Chicago less than a week ago. It just isn't easy to beat the same team twice in such short proximity, and Chicago will definitely have their hands full. I only hope the Knicks can sustain effort for more than their customary 2 quarters. This total should see plenty of public action on the Over, but I'm not sure Chicago breaks 92 points. Decent lean to NY, smaller lean to the Under.
Hawks @ Wolves - Minnesota getting 8.5 points with a total of 203. I love watching the Hawks, they are an extremely entertaining team, and they're also generally a solid ATS bet. Of course, that means the books are going to continue to slowly adjust, and continue to give a point or two of value to the Hawks opposition, since they're going to be getting the bulk of the public dollars against every team in the league, besides perhaps the Lakers and Celtics. This is definitely one of those spots. I would not be surprised to see the sharps bet this line down to 7 or 7.5, and then have the public bet it back to 8. The Hawks are coming off a straight up and ATS loss their last time out, in Chicago, as they now have a target on their backs being one of the NBA's better teams. Atlanta is going to get Minnesota's best shot, and with the Wolves coming off getting their clocks cleaned in Boston, I expect Minny to come back with a vengeance tonight. Another note worth mentioning is that the Hawks play tomorrow in Denver, so this game becomes something of a look-ahead spot. Strong lean to the home dog, and I like the Under because I do not see Atlanta bringing their A-game, not even their B+ game.
Warriors @ Grizzlies - Memphis by 7.5 with a total of 219.5. This game has the distinct possibility of being a 240-point game, but that's just what they want us to think. Sometimes things are simple, and sometimes they are far, far from it. I believe this game is far from it. The Grizzlies play surprisingly decent defense at home, and they are coming off holding Indiana and Denver under 100, two teams that can certainly put up points, or at the very least shoot the ball without wasting any time. Now, the Grizz get another fast-paced team in town. I think for the side, the Grizzlies have officially gone from underrated to overrated. True, Memphis is 8-5 at home, but they are also 5-8 O/U, so when they win at home, they win with better-than-expected defense. For Golden State, after a nice little run post-Stephen Jackson, they have dinked their way to a pathetic 1-9 record this month (3-6-1 ATS). They have the value, getting 7.5 points in this one, but I'm not sure I can trust them. The Warriors are 3-12 on the road, and lose by an average of over 8 points. This side smells funny, but I lean to the Grizzlies to deal the Warriors a beating. I also think this game goes Under, as Golden State continues to tire out, having no bench and only one good option on offense.
Clippers @ Rockets - Rockets by 9 with a total of 194. You guys know how I feel about Rockets games. When Shane Battier can guard the opposing team's best player, the Rockets cover; when he doesn't, they usually struggle to meet the spread. I'm not saying the Clippers are going to win this game; that's just a level of ballsiness that far exceeds my own, but I do think that the combination of Chris Kaman and Eric Gordon on offense might be enough to keep LA in this game. Battier might get put on Gordon if he heats up, but the Clippers have a solid 3 in Al Thornton who can also cause some match-up issues, and if Baron Davis has a non-mediocre game, his strength should be an asset against the quicks of Aaron Brooks. That being said, the Rockets are 16-11 (17-10 ATS) this year, so they continue to overperform, but coming off a monster OT win against the Mavs, then a narrow cover against the Thunder, they might be a tad overvalued, if only for one game. The Clippers are on the second half of a back-to-back, so fading them looks and feels way too obvious, especially with today's game as more of a warm-up than a full 4 quarters. I lean to the other LA team, and I also lean to the Under, since I think the Clippers catch Houston thinking about their next game in Orlando, tomorrow.
Blazers @ Mavs - This line is OFF, and for good reason. Medical professionals are taking dental records of Dirk Nowitzki's elbow. Half of Carl Landry is going to be in Dallas, though his gap-mouthed body will be in Houston battling the Clippers. In any case, Dallas managed to rally together to beat the Cavaliers, catching Cleveland in a look-ahead spot, and successfully covering for their wounded leader. I am extremely curious to see where this line opens up, and I'm even more curious to see if Dirk is going to play. My best recommendation on this game is to re-evaluate when the line comes out, check on the status of Dirk, and see if we can't find some value in the line. In terms of matchups, the Blazers are coming off a rare road win in Miami, and they gear up for their 3rd game in 4 nights. Tomorrow is a true fatigue game for Portland in San Antonio, so we might actually see a solid effort in this one. No leans, as yet.
Thunder @ Lakers - Lakers by 10 with a total of 195.5. I cannot back the Lakers, here. I just can't. I know they're probably the best team in the NBA, winning 9 of 10 games this month, but they are an ATS mess. The straight up 22-4 record belies how many double-digit spreads the Lakers have come within 2-3 points of covering, but as they say, almost only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. The Lakers are 12-14 ATS this year, and return home in this one off a solid 4-1 road trip, the perfect time to bank on a letdown. There is just one problem in this nearly perfect scenario. The Thunder play tomorrow in Phoenix, so their attention might be split, if only a tad. They also haven't done much against the best teams in the NBA, beating up on lesser foes. The Lakers have also owned the straight up battle against the Thunder, beating the franchise repeatedly since the move from Seattle. Still, all that taken into account, giving 10 points in the first game home is a pretty hefty sum. I would expect to see this line dip to 9.5 before anything else takes place. I know Kobe wants to show Kevin Durant that he's still the man in the NBA, but the Thunder have the athleticism to draw fouls, and they'll certainly be more fired up for this game than LA. I like the Under, as well, since LA's defense is better than most people realize, and Oklahoma City is going to have to keep LA under 100 if they want to win or cover.
Miss-Firing
By SportsPic
Sputtering Pistons off a 93-81 home defeat at the hands of Lakers marking a 4th consecutive loss both in the record books and at the betting window head to Charlotte to take on Bobcats. Pistons with a -10.5 points per game differential the past four games and who do not respond well on the highway going 3-11 (6-7-1 ATS) outscored by 6.0 PPG are in danger of getting clawed in this one. Pistons are 13-17 (10-19-1 ATS) on the road after scoring =<85 points, 3-9 (4-8 ATS) away after shooting =<42% from the field, 1-9 (2-7 ATS) after hitting =<20% from long range the previous game. As for Bobcats, they're also in a terrible skid going 1-5 (4-2 ATS) the past six but unlike Pistons the point differential of -2 points per game over the past four losses suggests Cats are at least competitive. Bobcats are a profitable 8-5 ATS at home this season, 6-1 ATS with an extra day's shut-eye, 5-2 ATS last seven following back-2-back losses. At this writing sportsbooks had yet to set a line due to Stephen Jackson's questionable status.
Tips and Trends
Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers
Thunder: This will be the 3rd time this season the Thunder has seen the Lakers, and they are still looking for their 1st win this season. The Thunder are 1-1 ATS against the Lakers, having taken the Lakers to OT at home earlier this season. The Thunder are 13-13 SU this season, having lost 4 of their past 5 games SU. Oklahoma City is 6-6 SU on the road, including 7-5 ATS away from home. The Thunder are 1-2 ATS as a double digit underdog this season. The Thunder average 97 PPG as a team, led by F Kevin Durant. Durant is 4th in the NBA in scoring at 27.2 PPG. PG Russell Westbrook averages nearly 16 PPG, along with 6.6 APG. Oklahoma City struggles to score on the road, as they've only scored 100 PTS or more in 4 of their 12 road contests. The Thunder have the 7th best defense in the NBA, allowing only 95.9 PPG. The last 5 Thunder opponents have scored at least 95 PTS against them.
Thunder is 26-9 ATS last 35 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 6-0 last 6 vs. Western Conference.
Key Injuries - G Kyle Weaver (shoulder) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 90
Lakers (-10, O/U 195.5): Los Angeles is clearly enjoying defending their NBA Championship, as they are an NBA best 22-4 SU this season. The Lakers have won 15 of their past 16 games, and are 15-2 at home this season. However, the Lakers are only 3-5 ATS as a double digit home favorite. Los Angeles actually has a losing record ATS, as they are only 12-14 for the season. G Kobe Bryant leads a group of 4 Lakers averaging double digits in PTS. Bryant is 2nd in the NBA in scoring at 28.9 PPG. F Pau Gasol is the 2nd leading scorer for the Lakers and has been a rebounding machine of late. Gasol has 14 or more rebounds in 5 of his past 6 games. Since Gasol returned to the lineup this season, the Lakers have only lost 1 game. Defensively, the Lakers are only allowing 94.5 PPG, which is 5th best in the NBA. They also lead the NBA in opposing field goal percentage at 42.3%.
Lakers are 5-0 ATS last 5 games as a home favorite of 5 to 10.5 points.
Under is 7-1 last 8 overall.
Key Injuries - F Luke Walton (finger) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 99 (UNDER - Total of the Day)
Trend Report - Tuesday
By Ed Meyer
Pistons at Bobcats - The Pistons are 0-9 ATS (-6.0 ppg) since January 14, 2009 after a home loss in which their DPA was negative. The Pistons are 8-0 ATS (5.6 ppg) since January 31, 2001 with at most one day of rest after a double digit loss in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was less than four. The Pistons are 7-0 ATS (7.1 ppg) since January 31, 2001 after a double digit loss in which they committed at least twenty turnovers. The League is 0-11 ATS (-8.3 ppg) since March 28, 2009 when seeking revenge for a loss as a dog in which they shot less than 60% from the free throw line.
Pacers at Celtics - The Pacers are 7-0 ATS (11.7 ppg) since January 28, 2009 with no rest after a loss in which Tj Ford played fewer than 30 minutes. The Celtics are 0-10 ATS (-6.7 ppg) since February 29, 2008 at home after losing the previous matchup in which Kendrick Perkins had more turnovers than assists.
Warriors at Grizzlies - The League is 0-9 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since March 21, 2008 as a dog with two or more days of rest after a game at home in which their opponent shot at least twenty three-pointers and made less than 25% of them.
Bulls at Knicks - The Bulls are 0-6 ATS (-6.4 ppg) since March 16, 2005 on the road off a home loss in which they led by led by double digits at the half. The Knicks are 0-6-1 ATS (-5.1 ppg) since April 04, 2007 when seeking revenge for a road loss in which they led by double digits.
Thunder at Lakers - The Lakers are 6-0 ATS (9.9 ppg) since December 09, 2007 with at least one day of rest after a road win in which they had at least 12 steals.
Trailblazers at Mavericks - The Trailblazers are 7-0 ATS (8.1 ppg) since January 28, 2004 as a dog with at least one day of rest after a game on the road in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line. The Trailblazers are 0-6 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since February 08, 2006 as a road dog after a game on the road in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Mavericks are 0-8 ATS (-12.0 ppg) since February 10, 2008 after a game at home in which they had at least five fewer turnovers than their season-to-date average.
Clippers at Rockets - The Rockets are 0-6 ATS (-16.2 ppg) since December 20, 2006 as a favorite with two or more days of rest after a game in which they had at least five fewer turnovers than their season-to-date average.
Hawks at Timberwolves - The Hawks are 10-0 ATS (10.8 ppg) since April 10, 2004 after playing on the road against the Bulls. The League is 8-0 ATS (9.9 ppg) since April 08, 2008 on the road with at least one day of rest off an overtime game as an away favorite. The Timberwolves are 6-0-1 ATS (6.6 ppg) since December 01, 2002 after a double digit road loss when their opponent is off an overtime game. The Timberwolves are 0-6 ATS (-10.9 ppg) since December 09, 1997 as a home dog when less than 50% of their baskets were assisted for two straight games.
76ers at Wizards - The 76ers are 0-7 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since February 17, 2009 on the road after a game in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers. The Wizards are 0-8-1 ATS (-8.5 ppg) since January 06, 2006 with at least one day of rest after a loss when their opponent is off an overtime game.