Tuesday's Best NBA Bet
Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers (-8.5, 207)
Derek Fisher wants no part of Houston’s guards. In two games against the Rockets this season, the Lakers have gone 1-1, but Fisher was destroyed by Kyle Lowry, Aaron Brooks and Kevin Martin.
“I am not overly concerned about myself,” Fisher said. “This is a team game.”
In the team’s first meeting, a 112-110 Lakers win that saw the Rockets cover (+6.5), Fisher went a mere 1-of-7 from the floor for 2 points as he finished minus-8. However, Brooks finished 7-of-16 from the field for 24 points and Martin was 8-for-17 for 26 and the duo went 13-of-13 from the free-throw line. In the second meeting, a 109-99 win by the Rockets that again saw them cover (+5.5), Fisher was 2-of-9 from the field for five points and a putrid minus-13.
Again, Fisher was torched. Martin was 6-for-17 from the field for 22 points and Lowry, filling in for an injured Brooks, had 10 assists and 8 points.
Their ability to get past Fisher and the Lakers other guards has allowed them to make up for a lack of talent in the paint. Despite Los Angeles having a stronger frontcourt, the Lakers have outscored the Rockets just 88-84 in the paint in two games.
"We're an inconsistent team on defense right now," Lakers forward Lamar Odom said. "We have to get back at practice and keep working on it."
Pick: Houston
Spurs begin long NBA odds trip at Portland
By: Stephen Nover
Swept by Phoenix in the playoffs last season, San Antonio was expected to be improved.
But the improvement the Spurs have shown is ridiculous.
The four-time world champion Spurs easily have the league’s top mark at 40-7. It’s San Antonio’s fastest start in franchise history. There have been seven previous teams to reach 40 victories in 47 games or fewer – and six of them went on to capture the NBA championship.
Now, though, the Spurs are faced with their annual Rodeo Road trip. The three-week, nine-game road swing begins Tuesday night (7:05 PT) at Portland.
Not that it would happen, but even if the Spurs were to go winless on their trip they still probably would lead the Southwest Division. That’s how commanding their division lead is.
The Spurs are 15-5 and 13-6-1 ATS in their first 20 away matchups.
Defense always has been a trademark of the Spurs in the Gregg Popovich era. However, the Spurs have been getting in done with offense averaging 104.4 points a game, fifth-best in the league.
Tony Parker has made at least 50 percent of his field goals during the past eight games. Manu Ginobili is averaging 22.6 points in his last three games. Ginobili paces a balanced San Antonio attack averaging 18.8 points a game. San Antonio has five players who average 11 or more points.
The Spurs have been playing better defense lately giving up an average of 94 points in their last 12 games. That would rank sixth if computed out during the entire season. Currently San Antonio rates 11th defensively allowing 96.9 points per game on the season.
This is bad news for the injury-racked Trail Blazers, who have broken the 100-point barrier just five times in their last 17 games.
Expected to be an outside contender for the Western Conference title, the Trail Blazers are 25-22 and clinging to the eighth and final playoff spot.
Portland is hurting in the middle with Marcus Camby out with a knee injury, Greg Oden sidelined for the season and Joel Pryzbilla essentially playing on one leg.
All-Star guard Brandon Roy is out, too, after undergoing surgery on both his knees. Roy has played only 23 games this season. Forward Nicolas Batum is ‘questionable’ with a sore hip that caused him to miss the second half of Portland’s last game.
Except for LaMarcus Aldridge, the Trail Blazers don’t have an imposing player on offense. Forced to become the team’s go-to-guy, Aldridge has responded with his finest season. The fifth-year forward is averaging 21 points and nine rebounds per game while shooting 48 percent from the field.
Aldridge, though, has been bottled up during the past two games – both Portland home losses. Aldridge has made only 12 of 34 shots from the field in the last two games averaging 13 points as the Trail Blazers lost 96-81 to Sacramento as seven-point favorites and fell 88-78 to Boston as 4½-point home ‘dogs.
Portland is averaging 85.3 points in its last three games – all ‘unders.’
Despite these two home defeats, the Trail Blazers remain tough at Rose Garden. Prior to losing to the Kings and Celtics, Portland was 12-2 at home with one of those defeats occurring to Miami in overtime.
The Trail Blazers have had ample rest. They last played on Thursday when they fell to Boston.
San Antonio hasn’t played since last Saturday when it defeated Houston, 108-95, as eight-point home favorites. It was the Spurs’ 18th straight home victory.
This is the second meeting this season between San Antonio and Portland. The Spurs won, 95-78, as 7½-point home favorites on Dec. 12. The combined 173 points went ‘under’ the 193-point total.
Lakers host Rockets looking to stop skid
By: Michael Robinson
The Los Angeles Lakers try to avoid their first three-game home losing streak in almost three years when they host the Houston Rockets on Tuesday night.
Los Angeles (33-15 straight up, 21-26-1 against the spread) started its current five-game homestand strong enough, a 120-91 win over Utah as eight-point favorites last Tuesday.
Next up was Sacramento on Friday. Kobe Bryant had 38 points while shooting 48.1 from the field. However the rest of the team had 57 points (shooting 37.7 percent) and the Lakers lost 100-95 as big 12-point favorites.
Sacramento may have been a ‘trap game’ with hated Boston visiting Sunday. A rebound effort was expected, but Bryant (41 points) was letdown again by the supporting cast (55 points). Boston won 109-96 as three-point ‘dogs, getting some revenge for the NBA Finals.
Maybe former team president Jerry West was right when he said that age was catching up to the Lakers defense. Sacramento (51.2 percent shooting) and Boston (60.3 percent) both had too many easy opportunities and the former is one of the NBA’s worst shooting teams (44.2 percent, ranked 25th).
Age is also a concern offensively. Derek Fisher (6.5 PPG) and Ron Artest (8.1 PPG) have combined for eight PPG the last two games. They’re 36 and 31 respectively. Los Angeles’ bench isn’t good enough to make up for two non-scorers, especially with Matt Barnes (knee) out until March.
The Lakers are 18-7 SU, but 10-15 ATS at home this year. They’re certainly capable of turning up their game any night and the last time they lost three straight at home was March 2008.
Los Angeles is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven games against the Southwest Division. San Antonio, currently well ahead in the Southwest standings, is up next on Thursday in another marquee matchup.
The ‘under’ is 17-4 in L.A.’s last 21 games following an ATS loss.
Houston (22-27 SU, 24-23-2 ATS) is in the middle of a brutal four-game road trip (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS so far). It began in Dallas last Thursday. The Rockets trailed by 18 points after the first quarter, but made it close late, ‘covering’ the 6 ½-points as 111-106 losers.
Coach Rick Adelman’s team visited the red-hot Spurs (40-7 SU) on Saturday night and made it a game through three quarters. However, a 32-24 deficit in the fourth made the final 108-95, with San Antonio ‘covering’ the eight points.
The 203 combined points scored went ‘under’ the 211-point total. The ‘over’ was 5-0 in Houston’s previous five road games.
The Rockets are one of the NBA’s best offensive teams (105.1 PPG), but worst defensively (104.9 PPG). The defense is allowing an awful 113 PPG the last five road games.
The matchups in this game look horrible for Houston. Lakers’ starting center Andrew Bynum has a six-inch height advantage over 6-foot-6 Chuck Hayes. Shooting guard Kevin Martin (23 PPG) is a great scorer, but can’t come close to guarding Bryant.
Houston is a surprising 2-0 ATS against L.A. this year. The first game was opening night in Los Angeles, a 112-110 Lakers win as 6 ½-point favorites. Yao Ming was Houston’s starting center, but is now out for the year (ankle injury). Backup center Brad Miller (knee) is doubtful Tuesday.
The second game was Dec. 1, with Houston winning 109-99 as 5½-point home ‘dogs. Hayes started at center with Ming out, but Bynum (knee) was still sidelined, not making his season debut until mid December.
The ‘over’ is 2-0 in the meetings this year and 3-0 in the last three overall.
Houston is 7-0 ATS in its last seven against the Pacific Division.
Tip-off from Staples Center is 7:30 p.m. (PT) and will be broadcast locally. The Lakers are off until Thursday, while Houston finishes its trip in Utah on Wednesday night.
NBA RoundUp for 2/1
by Dan Bebe
Washington Wizards @ New Orleans Hornets (-10) with a total of 188.5
Depending on how Washington's epic showdown with Dallas goes on Monday night, the side in this game is one of the few potential wagers I might actually consider. Why? Well, Washington is finishing up yet another disastrous road trip, there's some light sprinklings of turmoil among the players, the team has 2 days off before opening a homestand with the Orlando Magic, and frankly, if Washington exhausts itself in Dallas, this is going to be a bit of a fatigue spot (4th game in 5 nights). New Orleans returns home off a short 3-game road trip, but one that didn't go as well as hoped, with the Hornets losing in both Sacramento and Phoenix. We managed to fade a team off a long winning streak successfully, but with a day off before a home game, New Orleans should be somewhat rested and ready to punch back. My concerns with the Hornets side, however, stem from a potential look-ahead to a game in Oklahoma (though lessened by the fact that the Hornets beat the Thunder in their last meeting), and that Emeka Okafor was injured in Phoenix, and without his defensive presence near the rim, New Orleans' vaunted defense takes a huge hit. As it stands, if he can keep his consecutive game streak going, I lean HORNETS and UNDER, but let's not lock anything in just yet.
Boston Celtics (-6.5) @ Sacramento Kings with a total of 192.5
Generally, in the grind of a regular season, teams will either be "lookahead" teams or "letdown" teams, and not usually both. What I mean by this is that, if we could somehow know how a team is going to handle big game situations either the game before or after going into the season, our lives would be a lot easier. For Boston, I think it's safe to say that, at least for the Lakers, they went the route of the lookahead. Boston laid a sulfuric mess in Phoenix in the game before (partially due to fatigue, too), then came out and whipped LA on Sunday afternoon. Now, I don't really expect Boston to play a bad game both before AND after LA. I believe they got the bad one out of the way. Does that mean I want to back them? Absolutely not, but I also don't think it's a reason to avoid. The reasons to avoid are (a) that Sactown is playing its ass off, (b) that Boston is playing its final game of a 4-game west coast swing, and (c) that Boston beat the pants off the Kings when these teams faced off on the parquet out East. And in terms of point (c), it's pretty easy to see what happened. The Kings had played an overtime game with the Wizards the night before, were playing a 3rd road game in 4 nights, and the stats bear this out - the Kings committed a ridiculous 23 turnovers to the Celtics 14, allowed 12 offensive rebounds (while only grabbing 6), shot just 2-of-13 from long distance, and maybe most evident of fatigue, got outscored by 15 in the 3rd quarter. This time around, I like SACRAMENTO to fight tooth and nail to keep it close, and I can't see this total repeating what it did last time, lean to UNDER.
San Antonio Spurs (-5) @ Portland Trailblazers with a total of 191.5
This line feels pretty darn high, considering Portland isn't THAT awful. At the same time, though, a good defensive team like Boston completely shut down the Blazers offense, and the Celtics probably should have won that contest by a bit more than they did. This game, though, has a series of weird scheduling notes that put me squarely in the PASS CAMP. First, Portland has Denver coming up tomorrow, a division showdown. Second, San Antonio has the Lakers coming up on Thursday (on TNT), certainly a big game between the West's #1 and #2 teams. Third, Portland is on revenge from a pathetic 95-78 loss down in Texas back in mid-December. Fourth, Portland isn't even winning at home right now, the one place they seemed to be able to get it done. Fifth, this is the first game of San Antonio's annual Rodeo Road Trip, which is going to take them clear into the middle of February - we don't know how they will respond this year, since, in years past, the Rodeo trip seemed to galvanize the team, and this year, they don't need to be any stronger. So, I maintain, PASS on the side, take a peek at the OVER.
Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers (-8.5) with a total of 207
Paging Pau Gasol...wake the f$*& up! Sorry, that was the Laker fan in me. The betting man says, "Pau, do whatever you want, just be consistent..." and lately, he has been consistently disinterested. And I suppose the grind of the regular season can be a bit lengthy when you can go home at night's end and see a handful of trophies on the mantle. And that's fine, because right now, it's Kobe (and sometimes Bynum) versus the World, and we know how that show goes: the Lakers lose to the good defensive teams, lose to the supremely hot teams, and beat everyone else, but rarely cover. This game would, in my estimation, fall into category 3. Houston is not a good team, but they can hang with a lot of opponents because of a nice offensive gameplan, and a ton of shooters. I have also been trying to figure out if Shane Battier is an ATS weapon - sure feels like Houston finds a way to cover games when Battier is responsible for the opposition's best scorer. I think a large portion of bettors are going to be on the Lakers with the reasoning that they're "gonna be pissed" about the Boston loss. Yes, they are, but they don't cover when Kobe takes over games. Lean to ROCKETS and the OVER.
Inside the Paint - Tuesday
By Chris David
Today’s pro basketball card features four games and three of them will be late-night affairs. Yesterday, bettors watched the home team go 7-0 both straight up and against the spread. Favorites notched a 5-2 ATS ledger, with New Jersey and Memphis cashing as home ‘dogs against Denver and Orlando respectively. Will the trends carry over? Let’s take a quick look at the quartet.
Winless on the Road
The first game on the board pits New Orleans (31-18 SU, 27-22 ATS) against Washington (13-34 SU, 16-31 ATS) from “The Big Easy.” The Hornets opened as healthy 10-point home favorites and they won’t have center Emeka Okafor (side) on the court either. Gamblers following the NBA routinely know that you should be weary of a team that is playing its first home game after a road trip of three or more contests. And New Orleans fits that role tonight. The Hornets took their nine-game winning streak to the West Coast and they extended it to 10 with a win over Golden State (112-103). However two consecutive losses to the Kings (96-102) and Suns (102-104) over the weekend have New Orleans staring at a possible third loss in a row tonight. Even though the system play is on Washington, can you really back a team that has gone 0-24 SU and 5-19 ATS on the road? The Wizards had a chance to beat Dallas on the road last night but they blew plenty of chances and wound up losing by 10 (92-102). Ironically, the visitor has won and covered four straight battles in this head-to-head series.
Finishing Strong
Boston (36-11 SU, 22-24 ATS) wraps up its four-game road trip tonight in Sacramento (12-33 SU, 19-24 ATS) and this could be the toughest game, at least mentally. Hear me out. The Celtics have gone 2-1 both SU and ATS in the first three on this trip, which includes a double-digit win over the Lakers (109-96) on Sunday. Boston is 14-8 SU and 13-9 ATS away from home but it isn’t invincible and you can point to road setbacks this season to Cleveland, Toronto, Detroit and recently Washington last week. While it’s hard to handicap the Celtics’ emotion, it’s been the exact opposite with the Kings lately. Sacramento has gone 4-8 in its last 12 but gamblers have watched them go 8-4 ATS. What’s more impressive is that young squad played nine of those games on the road and all but one of the eight losses was by seven or less. The one bad setback came at Boston (95-119) on Jan. 12. Sacramento is catching 6½ points to the Celtics tonight and the club should be confident with wins its last two games over the Lakers (100-95) and Hornets (102-96).
Time for a Rodeo
San Antonio (40-7 SU, 25-22 ATS) has been a complete machine this season and betting against them has been foolish and even that’s putting it nicely. The league’s best team begins their annual “Rodeo Trip” this week with nine straight on the road. It will likely be broken into three and six-game swings with a mini-break in between. The Spurs have been solid on the road (15-5 SU, 13-6 ATS) and have been made favorites over Portland (25-22 SU, 23-24 ATS) tonight. The Trail Blazers have played great this season despite dealing with numerous injuries (Brandon Roy, Marcus Camby) but it looks like they’ve hit the wall. After ripping off five straight wins against losing clubs, Portland dropped two straight and last Thursday’s home loss to Boston (78-88) showed the lack of firepower. Nate McMillian’s squad will be rested tonight and they have had success against San Antonio, posting a 5-1 record both SU and ATS in the last six encounters. Unfortunately, that was with a healthy squad.
Three Straight?
Los Angeles (33-15 SU, 21-26 ATS) is hoping to bounce back tonight after dropping its last two games at home. Sunday’s loss to Boston (96-109) was humbling but Friday’s setback to Sacramento (95-100) was embarrassing even though the Kings are playing better. Despite those losses, Phil Jackson’s team still owns a 10-game lead in the Pacific Division and will clinch a playoff spot in early March but gamblers have to be weary of the Purple and Gold. An 18-7 record at Staples Center is decent but the 10-15 ATS ledger doesn’t suit will with bettors backing the Lakers. Houston (22-27 SU, 24-23 ATS) will try to add to Los Angeles’ misery tonight as a nine-point underdog. The Rockets have dropped two straight as well and four of their last six, including a loss to San Antonio (95-108) on Saturday. Houston has given up 108 points or more five times during this stretch, which has helped the ‘over’ go 4-2. On the road, the Rockets have gone 9-17 SU and 13-12 ATS. This will be the third meeting between the pair this season and Houston has covered both contests, including a 109-99 win on Dec. 1 as a 5 ½-point home underdog. Both contests went ‘over’ the number and the total for tonight is hovering around 210 points. Editor’s Note – VI Expert Paul Bovi is 9-1 in his last 10 NBA picks and he’s got the side and total posted on this contest.
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