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NBA News and Notes Tuesday 2/16

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Tuesday NBA Tips
By Kevin Rogers

The NBA's second-half tips off on Tuesday night with ten games on the card. Several Western Conference games take center stage, including the new-look Mavs hosting the red-hot Thunder.

Mavs (32-20 SU, 21-31 ATS) at Thunder (30-21 SU, 32-19 ATS)

After the city of Dallas was spotlighted this past weekend with the All-Star Game, the Mavs made headlines by acquiring Caron Butler as part of a seven-player deal from the Wizards. Dallas parted ways with Josh Howard after 5 ½ seasons, looking to shake things up for another NBA Finals run. The Thunder, meanwhile, has won a season-high six straight games.

Oklahoma City has double revenge on its mind, following a pair of losses to Dallas this season. The Mavs downed the Thunder at the Ford Center, 100-86 in mid-December as 2 ½-point road 'chalk.' Oklahoma City fell short in Dallas, 99-98 on January 15, but the Thunder managed a cover as five-point road underdogs.

The Thunder continues to impress not only opponents, but bettors as well. OKC has cashed four straight and seven of its past nine games. Scott Brooks' squad is currently tied with the Hawks for the best ATS mark in the league at 32-19. However, the Thunder is 4-6 ATS the last ten games at the Ford Center.

The Mavs will try to bounce back after suffering a humiliating 127-91 loss at Denver last Tuesday, Dallas' final game before the break. Rick Carlisle's team needs to step up its defense, which has allowed at least 117 points in each of the last three contests.

Suns (31-22 SU, 28-25 ATS) at Grizzlies (26-25 SU, 27-23-1 ATS)

Phoenix and Memphis meet up for the final time this season, as the Grizzlies look for their third win over the Suns. The tables have turned for both this clubs, with Memphis trying to snap a four-game skid, while Phoenix has won five of six.

The Suns captured all four games of their most recent road trip, winning at Houston, New Orleans, Denver, and Sacramento. That mark is in stark contrast to the 0-4 roadie the Suns went on in mid-January, capped off by a seven-point setback at FedEx Forum against the Grizzlies.

Memphis outlasted Phoenix on MLK day, 125-118, cashing as two-point home favorites. However, the home court has not treated the Grizzlies well recently, as Memphis is 1-3 SU/ATS the last four at home. The Grizzlies are struggling to put the ball in basket of late, tallying less than 100 points in eight of the last ten contests.

Phoenix has a crucial stretch over the span of Tuesday and Wednesday, as the Suns travel to Dallas on Wednesday. Also, the Suns may be changing faces soon, with the impending move of center Amar'e Stoudemire coming in the days leading up to the trade deadline.

Jazz (32-19 SU, 30-18-3 ATS) at Rockets (27-24 SU, 24-27 ATS)

Utah hit a bump in the road prior to the break with a home loss to the Lakers, but the Jazz have won 13 of their past 15. Jerry Sloan's club heads to Houston to battle a Rockets team that was embarrassed prior to the break with a 33-point loss at Miami.

The Jazz have played seven of their last nine at home, but both road games resulted in victories, beating the Clippers and Blazers. Utah has turned into a covering machine lately, going 12-2-3 ATS the last 17 games. The Jazz look for revenge after a home setback to the Rockets, 113-96 back in early November, as Houston cashed easily as eight-point road 'dogs.

The Rockets have found a way to be consistently inconsistent over the last two months, putting together a 10-13 SU mark the previous 23 contests. Houston has been a horrible play in this span, covering just six times. At home has been a detriment for Rockets' backers, with Houston going 1-9 ATS the last ten at Toyota Center.

For the exception of the November road victory by the Rockets, the home team has dominated this series, winning seven of the last eight meetings. However, the home squad has compiled a 4-4 ATS mark in this span.

Celtics (32-18 SU, 19-30-1 ATS) at Kings (18-34 SU, 25-24-3 ATS)

Boston resumes a five-game road trip, heading out west to California's capital city to battle Sacramento. The C's concluded the first half with a come-from-ahead loss at New Orleans, while the Kings picked up consecutive road wins at New York and Detroit.

Paul Westphal's squad has had plenty of problems covering at Arco Arena recently, going 2-10-1 ATS the last 13 at home. The role of a home 'dog hasn't been beneficial, with the Kings putting up a 2-9-1 ATS mark since mid-November.

Boston has handled Sacramento the last two seasons, going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, with every victory coming by at least 12 points. The Celtics have struggled cashing as favorites for most of the season, but are 4-2 ATS the previous six as road 'chalk.' Facing the Western Conference has turned into a tall task for Doc Rivers' team, compiling a 1-9-1 ATS mark the last 11 games against interconference foes.

Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood:

Amazingly, the 4-48 Nets have been one of the best teams to back the last two weeks, going 6-2-1 ATS the previous nine contests. New Jersey heads to Charlotte to battle a Bobcats team right in the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race. This is the first time since March 2009 that the Bobcats are laying double-digits, as Charlotte easily covered as 13 ½-point favorites over Sacramento, 104-88.

At one time, the Palace of Auburn Hills was an intimidating place for visitors. But this season, things have changed (as has the roster), as the Pistons are 0-6-1 ATS and 1-6 SU the last seven games at home. Detroit hosts a Minnesota squad that is 11-1 ATS this season when receiving 5 ½ points or less.

The Lakers own the lightest schedule this week, playing just two games. Los Angeles hopes to get Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum back on Tuesday when the Lakers host the Warriors. The first two meetings this season have each eclipsed the 'over,' with L.A. capturing each contest. Golden State has been money as a road underdog, covering eight of the last ten when getting points away from Oracle Arena.

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Posted : February 15, 2010 11:21 pm
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Game of the day: Mavericks at Thunder
By Marc Lawrence

Maverick makeover

Despite leading the Southwest Division, and being just one of only seven teams to own a winning record in head-to-head games against other winning teams this season, the Mavericks pulled the trigger on a huge seven-player swap during the break.

Dallas dealt forwards Josh Howard and Drew Gooden to Washington for forward Caron Butler, center Brendan Haywood and guard DeShawn Stevenson. The Mavericks also sent Quinton Ross and James Singleton to the Wizards to conclude the trade.

The trade improves the Mavs on paper but it’s unclear how quickly the new arrivals will gel.

“It’s going to be tough to get everyone together that quick,” Dirk Nowitzki told the Dallas Morning News. “…Hopefully we’re going to put some basics in Monday, just a couple of plays, tell them our defensive philosophy and go out and play.”

After dropping five of their seven games before the All-Star break, Mavs All-Star guard Jason Kidd said, "We haven't been playing well, that's for sure. Sometimes people might think that moving someone or making a trade can help. We have a big week coming out of the All-Star break ... 30 games left, it's a sprint now, not a marathon. I think we're going to be ready for that."

Mavericks owner Mark Cuban chimed in, "[The trade] makes us significantly better. Different teams go through different situations. The Mavs went through it in the '90s, the Wizards are going through some issues right now. Sometimes giving guys a fresh home I think re-energizes them, and will work the other way, too."

Thunderous ovation

After winning 23 games all of last season, Oklahoma City resides in third place in the Northwest Division at the break with a 30-21 record. The Thunder take a six-game win streak into tonight’s contest, the franchise's first six-game winning streak since the team moved from Seattle.

All-Star forward Kevin Durant is second in the league in scoring at 29.7 ppg, just behind LeBron James (29.9 ppg) and ahead of Carmelo Anthony (29.2 ppg).

KD has scored 25 or more points in 25 straight games and the Thunder are 17-8 against the spread over that streak.

By the numbers

Here is how each team ranks in four major team categories among other teams in the league, according to Cover.com statistical rankings:

Offensive Scoring:
Dallas (12) 101.3
Oklahoma City (19) 98.5

Defensive Scoring:
Dallas (15) 99.6
Oklahoma City (5) 95.4

Rebound Margin:
Dallas (23) –0.69
Oklahoma City (4) +2.41

Against The Spread:
Dallas (28) 21-31
Oklahoma City (1) 32-19

Coaches’ corner

No coach on a win streak welcomes the rust that comes after the All-Star break and OKC bench boss Scott Brooks is no different.

"This is a lot of time off. The concern is guys taking six days off and laying on the couch," Brooks said.

Meanwhile, Dallas head coach Rick Carlisle realizes the importance of getting off on a good foot following the break and the aforementioned trade.

Chemistry and a new attitude are major concerns. "It's an important start," Carlisle said. "It's been a tough 10-day stretch… We need to get healthy coming out of the break.”

The Mavs were routed, 127-91, at Denver in their final game before the break last Tuesday and sport a 10-11 record since December 31.

Bet you didn’t you know

The Mavericks are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS when playing with six or more days of rest. Dallas is also 16-3 SU and 14-5 ATS in games off a loss of more than 20 points, including 10-1 SU and ATS versus an opponent off a win.

Oklahoma City is 6-1 ATS the last seven games in this series and 32-15-1 ATS versus Southwest Division opponents since moving to Oklahoma City. The Thunder are 2-2 SU and ATS when playing with six or more days of rest.

 
Posted : February 15, 2010 11:37 pm
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Dallas (32-20, 21-31 ATS) at Oklahoma City (30-21, 32-19 ATS)

Kevin Durant hopes to continue his incredible scoring barrage when he leads the red-hot Thunder against the Mavericks in a key Western Conference matchup at the Ford Center.

Dallas comes out of the All-Star break in a 2-5 slump, and it has failed to cover in seven of its last eight games and 17 of its last 26. The Mavericks limped into the break with an ugly 127-91 loss at the Nuggets a week ago tonight, falling way short as a seven-point underdog. During its 2-5 funk, Dallas is 1-3 SU and ATS on the highway.

Contrary to the Mavericks, Oklahoma City took a six-game winning streak into the All-Star break. The first three wins were at home (2-1 ATS), with the last three coming on the road (3-0 ATS), including Thursday’s 89-77 rout of Portland as a 1½-point chalk. Going back to Dec. 23, the Thunder have won 17 of their last 24 games, and they’re 17-8 ATS in their last 25. They’re also 9-3 in their last 12 at home (6-6 ATS).

Durant scored 33 points and had 11 rebounds in the 12-point win over the Blazers, and the third-year pro has now tallied 25 points or more in 25 straight games.

Dallas has taken the first two meetings this year, including a 100-86 victory as a two-point road favorite in Oklahoma City on Dec. 16. However, that’s the Mavericks’ only spread-cover in the last seven series clashes (all as an underdog).

The Mavericks are in pointspread freefalls of 7-19 overall (1-8 last nine), 2-5 on the road, 7-19 against Western Conference teams, 0-6 against the Northwest Division, 0-7 when coming off three or more days of rest, 0-6 on Tuesday and 0-4 against winning teams. The only positive: a 5-2 ATS mark in their last seven as an underdog of less than five points.

On the flip side, Oklahoma City is riding ATS hot streaks of 4-0 overall, 4-0 as a favorite, 6-0 when laying less than five points, 5-1 against the Western Conference, 9-0 versus winning teams, 5-1 after three or more days rest and 35-16-1 on Tuesday. Also, the Thunder’s 32-19 ATS record this season is tied with Atlanta for best in the NBA.

Dallas is on “over” surges of 7-2 overall, 4-1 on the road, 9-3 as an underdog, 14-5 as a road pup, 9-3 against the Western Conference and 5-1 versus Northwest Division squads. Oklahoma City is 8-1-1 “over” in its last 10 on Tuesday, but the under is 5-2 in its last seven against the Western Conference and 13-6-1 in its last 20 after a spread-cover. Finally, the under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams and 9-1-1 in the last 11 clashes when playing on the Thunder’s home court.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA CITY

Utah (32-19, 30-18-1 ATS) at Houston (27-24, 24-27 ATS)

The Jazz, who closed out the first half of the season strong, return to the court when they visit the Rockets at the Toyota Center.

Utah had a 10-game overall and 10-game home winning streak snapped in Wednesday’s 96-81 loss to the Lakers as a 5½-point home chalk. Still, the Jazz are 14-3 in their last 17 games, going 12-2-3 ATS. During this stretch they’re 4-2 on the road (5-0-1 ATS). Prior to getting shut down by the Lakers six days ago, Utah had scored more than 100 points in 11 straight games and 13 of 14, including 109 or more nine times.

The Rockets come out of the All-Star break having lost six of their last nine games (2-7 ATS), and they enter tonight off consecutive defeats to Philadelphia (102-95 as a 5½-point home favorite) and Miami (99-66 as a 5½-point road underdog). In last Tuesday’s ugly loss to the Heat – easily its worst of the season – Houston shot just 30.2 percent from the field, going 4-for-18 from three-point range.

These teams have met just once this season, way back on Nov. 2, and the Rockets rolled 113-96 in Salt Lake City as an eight-point road underdog. Prior to that, the host had won seven in a row in this rivalry (4-3 ATS) going back to a 2008 playoff series. However, the Jazz have covered in six of their last eight trips to the Toyota Center.

Utah is on a slew of positive pointspread surges, including 12-2-3 overall, 6-0-1 on the highway, 9-2-2 as a favorite, 19-6-1 as a chalk of less than five points, 5-1 as a road chalk of five points or less, 9-2-2 against Western Conference foes, 36-17 against the Southwest Division, 12-5 when coming off three or more days of rest, 15-5-3 versus winning teams, 16-5 after a SU defeat and 9-1 after a non-cover.

The Rockets are on ATS runs of 6-0 as a home underdog (4-0 as a home ‘dog of less than five minutes) and 14-4 after a double-digit loss. On the flip side, Houston is in pointspread funks of 3-11 overall, 1-9 at home, 1-6 after a SU loss, 1-4 against winning teams and 1-4 versus Northwest Division opponents.

The under is 7-0 for Utah after a double-digit home loss, 4-1 for Utah after a non-cover, 5-2 for Houston after a double-digit defeat and 7-3 for Houston as an underdog. Conversely, the over is on surges of 5-0 for the Jazz on the road, 4-0-1 for the Jazz as a road favorite, 5-1 for the Jazz on Tuesday, 8-3 for Utah against the Western Conference and 7-3 for the Rockets at home.

Lastly, four of the last six clashes between these squads have gone over the total, including the last two in Houston.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH

 
Posted : February 16, 2010 8:59 am
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NBA RoundUp For 2/16
By Dan Bebe

Nets @ Bobcats - Charlotte by 11.5 with a total of 186. Games with lines this high are games where I'll likely be avoiding the side coming out of the Break. Will the Bobcats be in perfect sync and blow the Nets out by 35, or will both teams go on their own special little clankfests and the Nets will lose by just 6-7 in a low-scoring game? I'm inclined to believe that almost no teams, especially ones that rely on streaky scorers like Stephen Jackson and All Star disappointments like Gerald Wallace, are going to be able to come bursting out of the gates on the other side of the Break. Do we really think the Bobcats, who have been barely squeezing by heading into the Break are going to turn it around without a few minutes of game action to get their bearings? My concern with this side is that it is awfully high, even for a Nets game. Jersey was only getting 12.5 points in Boston, so this is a pretty strong signal that either oddsmakers feel the Nets are going to really lay down for the stretch or that oddsmakers feel they can charge a premium on a team, Charlotte, that needs to win down the stretch to ensure a playoff berth. I can't imagine that, at this line, there's any value left on the home team, and as much as it pains me (and you) to say it, I lean Nets. I think the obvious choice is the under, but I worry that oddsmakers have already accounted for the rust coming out of the Break. Even without the line value, I still believe the Under is the way to go, and that is going to be a running theme today, especially if we can find a game where the public is going to take the over and give us some added value.

Heat @ Sixers - Philly by 2 with a total of 189. This is a troublesome one. We have the Sixers, who have, for some reason, owned the Heat, but have been an awful ATS wager at home this year, and the Heat, who went into the All Star Break winning (and covering, in blowout fashion) two in a row, and then watching their Superstar put on the show of the day in Sunday's All Star Game. In terms of angles from this season, there aren't many. These teams have yet to play this year, so they'll be seeing an awful lot of each other from this point forward, and those games are going to count. The Heat are right on the bubble in the East, and the Sixers need to make a charge, or rather continue the charge they started before the Break, if they have a shot of making any noise down the stretch. So, my best advice here is to lay off the side in this game, and again, you were warned, this is a DANGEROUS day to make bets on the NBA, especially on sides. The safer plays today are on totals, and once again I like the Under. Philly was pushing the tempo heading into the Break, but came up with a lackluster effort in their final game in Toronto. Miami has really gone into full lockdown mode on defense in their last two wins, and for reasons somewhat unknown, games in this series have been strongly trending to the Under. Over the last 15 years, this Heat/Sixers series has gone 15-30 O/U at both locations.

Wolves @ Pistons - Detroit by 5.5 with a total of 198. This is a more interesting game, in my opinion, than the two teams involved might let on. Well, maybe not this game in particular, but these are two teams I'm going to be watching very closely over the next few weeks. The Pistons are an awful 18-33 on the season, a monster disappointment for a team that signed Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva in the offseason expecting to shore up some of their offensive issues. This was a team where I very nearly suggested the "Under" futures bet on total wins, but decided it was somehow bad karma to wish ill upon my new "home" team here in Michigan. In any case, Detroit is such a colossal letdown of a squad this year, that I think we'll find out in the next week or two if this team is going to try to salvage some pride down the stretch or pack it in and shoot for some top-pick lottery action. From the looks of things, they've been so riddled by injury and have such a messy crop of shooting guards and wingmen (but nothing else), that I just see no reason for Detroit to not only risk the health of their investments, but why make a mad dash just to see if they can be the best of the worst? On the other side, the Wolves know they're going to get a perfectly delightful draft pick, and at 13-40, they have no prayer of making the playoffs in the West, and it seems like within the last 1-2 weeks the triangle offense is starting to make a little sense to these guys. Considering the terrible SU record the Wolves are 28-25 ATS, so they have outperformed the line quite a few times this year, and I believe they'll be a decent value the rest of the season, at least until the final week or two. I like Minnesota a little bit here, but I find defense tends to win games coming out of a long Break, since jump-shots usually aren't quite there yet. Thus, I have no real feelings on the side or the total, but remember, keep an eye on these teams, as I think we'll see some true colors shine through in the next short bit.

Mavericks @ Thunder - Oklahoma by 3.5 with a total of 195. How about this number, eh guys? The Thunder are now officially in a dead heat with the Mavs in the power rankings, possibly even favored by a half-point, depending on what sort of home court edge they're being given here. Still, this ridiculously enticing line of Mavs getting 3.5 points feels like it might still lure the average bettor over to the side of the team with the floundering defense. I mean, just take a peek at how the previous meetings have gone this season. The Mavs beat the Thunder by 14 in Oklahoma back in mid-December as 2 point favorites, then eked out a 1-point home win as 5-point favorites in January. And now, here in mid-February, the power rankings have shifted 5.5 points since that fateful meeting in December, and even though the Mavs have won both games straight up (1-1 ATS), the line has moved strongly the other direction, and that, ladies and gents, is because the Thunder have been the better team. Oklahoma nearly beat the Mavs in their last meeting, and I believe this young, surging team is going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder. It also doesn't hurt that they've won 6 straight games and covered 5 of those 6. I have had a tendency at times to give the public too much credit by thinking they've caught on to situations sooner than they have, so let's wait and see which side they like. I actually tend to believe this line is pretty solid to get 50/50 action. Still, given the angles and the Mavs stretch of defensive futility, I can't help but think Durant is going to rip Dallas a new one. Oh, and the Mavs have new bodies to work into the rotation. It is not easy to add a bunch of new pieces and just expect everyone to gel right off the bat. I expect this game to be a Thunder 5 point win with the total staying Under by about 2 buckets.

Suns @ Grizzlies - Memphis by 1 with a total of 220.5. I absolutely loathe this side. Flat out. There is almost no value here. The Suns remain a hugely public team, especially so considering they won and covered 5 in a row before dropping their final game before the Break to a Portland team that put on the jumpshooting clinic of the season. So, clearly, no value there. Memphis would have been a wonderful value here if it was 2 weeks ago, but after the confetti blowing, balloon-dropping, shirt-removing win over the Lakers on February 1, the Grizz have dropped 4 straight games, by 16, 18, 7 and 14, respectively, and that 7-point loss was to the Wolves. In addition, the Grizzlies have crushed the Suns in 2 straight meetings this year, after losing the first. So, Phoenix is on something of a revenge spot, but might be distracted by trade talks. The Grizzlies are slumping, but are a bubble team in the West, and we have no idea if these guys are going to be the type of team that cranks it up when the pressure's on or folds, and then, on top of all that, Nash, Amare and Zebo are coming from the All Star game, and a couple of the younger guys were in the Rookie challenge back on Friday. This one screams no-play. On the side. But wait, what's this? After meetings this year that ended with totals of 137, 131, and 143, the total on this game is actually 5 points less than the last game? In an homage to our good pal Razorbackfan, this one smells a bit. I lean Under. Somebody is going to half-ass this game, and All Star hangover is going to make half of this game look like it's being played in molasses.

Knicks @ Bulls - This line is OFF. Oh come on, oddsmakers, a game without a line coming out of the All Star Break? You had 4 days to figure out who was and was not hurt. Oh well, let's see what we have to work with. So far this year, this series has been about as consistent as we could hope. These teams are gearing up for a home-and-home today and tomorrow, so we'll almost definitely have a play on the rematch then, but we might be able to milk this home-and-home both days, if we play our cards right. In the first meeting, in Chicago, the Bulls won by 9, an easy cover on the -2.5 spread they were laying, and the game went under the posted mark by about 15. Five days later, they met again in New York, and the Knicks, laying 6, covered by a nose, with a game that once again went way under. In both of these games, both teams shot the ball terribly -- the Knicks shot 36 and 40% in the two games, and the Bulls managed a robust 45 and 40.5% themselves. The Knicks have been struggling mightily after a nice December, and seem to be fluctuating between 3 or 4 games where they try to win with offense, and fail, then 3 or 4 games where they try to win with defense, and fail again. Bottom line is that this team had installed a nice gimmicky offense under D'Antoni, but they just don't have the talent to compete on a nightly basis. David Lee is a stud, but the rest of this team epitomizes inconsistent, and that makes them tough to trust. I would tend to think Chicago gets the job done at home, but I definitely want to see if Noah and Rose are both going to be active for this one. On the total, I would expect to see the lowest posted mark of any of the meetings between these teams this year, but not knowing which iteration of the Knicks comes out of the All Star Break makes me want to look this one over again after the number comes out before making any choices. I'm thinking pass on the total.

Jazz @ Rockets - Utah by 2.5 with a total of 202.5. I've lost faith in Houston. I just think this team was an overachiever from the outset, and teams without a superstar tend to fade as the role-players tire from giving max effort all season long. But wait, they had 4 days off, so how will these guys respond? Both teams are coming off embarrassing losses heading into the All Star Break, with the Jazz getting slammed on their home court by the Kobe-less Lakers, 96-81, the first time Utah had failed to break 100 since the 14th of January; the Rockets lost by 33 on the road in Miami in a trademark mail-in effort, 99-66. At least the score looks kind of seductive when you type it, because otherwise, Houston left a lot to be desired in that one. I think the initial thought here is that Utah is an easy winner, but we saw how poorly they played going into the All Star Break. I just feel like there is such great unpredictability in these games that you want to be absolutely certain before backing a small road favorite. These teams haven't played each other since November 2, when Houston pounded Utah in Salt Lake City, but I find it hard to believe Utah is playing this one like a revenge game. So much has happened since then, the least of which being that Utah is playing basketball like beasts and the Rockets are, well, stinking. I think you obviously have to at least LOOK at the Jazz on the side, but do be careful, since you guys know how I hate going against teams off a huge loss. The Rockets are getting bonus value thanks to that blowout loss in Miami, and I doubt they'll take kindly to it. Also, this Rockets team got a lot of rest over the break (see: We don't have any All Stars), so they'll be practiced up and ready. I think the best bet in this game is the Over, but I fear we may see one quarter where neither team can make a jump-shot. Play with caution.

Clippers @ Blazers - Portland by 6 with a total of 193. The Clippers are a team I cannot trust on the road, which, despite whatever angles we might have on them, makes this game extremely difficult to bet. Here's why: the Clippers have actually been a match-up nightmare for Portland this season. It might be because of Portland's injury issues, but the Clippers have some length in the middle, and Portland, without Oden and Przybilla, just hasn't really had an answer for the likes of Chris Kaman in the post, and getting the ball past Camby on the other end. Also, more bad news for the Blazers, they are still likely without Brandon Roy, who seems to need even more time than the All Star Break to get healthy. The Roy situation really feels like a spot where a superstar felt like his team needed him to go full tilt for so long that he just finally broke down, and Roy has needed extra time to heal because of it. Bottom line, the Blazers shouldn't really be laying 6 points to almost anyone when they're playing without Roy, especially a team that, while clearly an awful road bet (at 7-20 SU and 12-15 ATS), has actually gone a perfect 2-0 ATS against Portland this year. The total has a tiny bit of value, I believe. The Clippers are coming off a game in Golden State that saw 234 combined points, and saw the Clippers get blown the hell out by 30. This team is supposedly "opening it up" under their new Head Coach, but I haven't really seen that in action just yet, and until the Clippers show any kind of consistent attack, I'm not buying into these two straight overs. I like the Clips just a tiny bit, courtesy of the 30-point blowout theory, and I like the Under, because, well, the Clippers can't score on the road.

Celtics @ Kings - Boston by 6 with a total of 199. You just have to like the Kings in this spot. It's not often you get a team that has, somewhat sneakily, covered 2 straight games, had their Rookie take home an MVP award at the All Star games (fine, it was just in the Rookie-Soph game, but still), and then get 6 points at home to an old, crusty road club traveling cross-country with a date with the Lakers coming up on Thursday. Yeah, I covered pretty much every angle in one sentence there, but I suppose each is worth elaborating on, if only for a bit. First, the Kings' recent minor bouts of success. They won 2 of 3 games straight up on a road trip through Toronto, New York and Detroit. It wasn't exactly the stiffest of competition, but they actually led in Toronto as well, before melting down in the 4th quarter. I'm starting to get the sensation the Kings might make a little push, and we might very well have seen them bottom out after that 31-point road loss to the Heat back on January 23rd. If we ignore the classic "first-game-home" clunker that immediately followed that awful road loss, the Kings have gone just 2-6 SU, but 5-3 ATS, and I think we can all start to see the line value for this team as they try to turn the corner. These teams haven't played yet this year, so we'll get a rematch in Beantown at some point soon, but with the Celtics having been an ATS nightmare of late (2-10-1 run), they should not be laying 6 points on the road. This number might look like a bargain to the average bettor, but you can bet your ass Boston is gearing up for a rematch with the Lakers on TNT Thursday after losing a heartbreaker to LA at home. Lean to Sactown. The total isn't my favorite. Boston has been playing bad defense and worse offense, and coming up with unders - Sacramento has been playing bad offense and worse defense, and coming up with overs. Tough call, but I lean Under coming out of the Break.

Warriors @ Lakers - This line is OFF. And with Kobe Bryant, Andrew Bynum, Monta Ellis and Corey Maggette all questionable, I will allow it. Still, if the previous game is a look-ahead spot for Boston, this one certainly must be a look-ahead spot for the Lakers, right? I would say most likely, especially given the relative disgust the betting world has for the undermanned Warriors right now, but at the same time the Lakers took care of the Sixers on their recent road trip right before the game in Boston, and didn't seem to look ahead there. I would argue, though, that while on the road, the Lakers weren't taking any games for granted. They hadn't been a strong road team, so opportunities to prove themselves, even against the likes of the Pacers and Sixers were still chances for Kobe to rally his troops and start getting them a little more battle-tested as we get into the final third of the NBA season. Now, at home, coming out of the All Star Break, I can't help but think the Warriors are going to really try to give the Lakers a nice run for their money. I expect this line to be pretty hefty, and I realize that it's tough to make a solid call on this game without knowing who is going to play, but I feel like the best value here is to play the Under. If bodies return for the Lakers, it could disrupt the chemistry when Kobe takes 25 shots out of the offensive rhythm, and the Lakers know their best chance of burying the Warriors is to crush them with superior size. Slow the game down, get easy buckets in the paint, and never let the Warriors get a clean look or an offensive rebound. Tiny lean to Warriors, slightly larger lean to Under.

 
Posted : February 16, 2010 9:45 am
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Trend Report - Tuesday
By Ed Meyer

Nets at Bobcats – The Nets are 0-8 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since February 12, 2002 on the road with two or more days of rest after a game at home in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. The Bobcats are 0-5 ATS (-4.6 ppg) since December 26, 2004 with two or more days of rest off a win of four points or fewer in which they held a double digit lead.

Knicks at Bulls – The Knicks are 6-0 ATS (11.0 ppg) since February 23, 2003 on the road with at least one day of rest after a game in which they controlled 40% or less of the available rebounds.

Suns at Grizzlies – The Suns are 8-0 ATS (7.2 ppg) since March 30, 2006 on the road after a game in which they were outshot by at least 10 percent. The Suns are 8-0-2 ATS (6.5 ppg) since February 20, 2007 on the road with at least one day of rest after a loss in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Grizzlies are 0-7 ATS (-5.1 ppg) since February 29, 2008 with two or more days of rest when they have lost and failed to covered their last four games.

Celtics at Kings – The Celtics are 7-0 ATS (5.1 ppg) since February 24, 2006 before playing the Lakers on the road. The Celtics are 6-0 ATS (11.6 ppg) since December 09, 2004 with two or more days of rest after a loss in which they has more than 10 refereed turnovers. The Kings are 0-9 ATS (-9.8 ppg) since November 26, 2002 with at least one day of rest off a win in which they trailed at the end of each of the first three quarters.

Warriors at Lakers – The Warriors are 0-10 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since December 28, 2007 after a home win in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average.

Timberwolves at Pistons – The Timberwolves are 0-9-1 ATS (-6.5 ppg) since December 22, 2006 after a game at home in which they had at least five fewer turnovers than their season-to-date average. The Pistons are 0-7-1 ATS (-10.0 ppg) since January 23, 2009 at home after a game at home in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line.

Jazz at Rockets – The Jazz are 8-0 ATS (13.1 ppg) since March 27, 2006 after a game at home in which they shot less than 60% from the free-throw line. The Rockets are 0-7 ATS (-6.7 ppg) since April 08, 2002 with two or more days of rest after a road loss in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted. The Rockets are 7-0-1 ATS (7.4 ppg) since December 20, 2007 after a loss in which they shot less than 35% from the field.

Heat at 76ers – The Heat are 7-0 ATS (11.3 ppg) since December 10, 1999 with two or more days of rest after a game on the road in which their DPA was minus 15 points or less. The 76ers are 6-0 ATS (9.3 ppg) since December 16, 2002 at home after a double digit loss in which they had at least five more turnovers than their season-to-date average.

Mavericks at Thunder – The Mavericks are 0-9 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since April 06, 2007 on the road with 2+ days rest after a road game. The Mavericks are 9-0-1 ATS (7.5 ppg) since February 01, 2005 with two or more days of rest after a loss in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.

Clippers at Trailblazers – The Clippers are 0-7 ATS (-5.7 ppg) since April 12, 2002 with two or more days of rest after a road loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.

 
Posted : February 16, 2010 1:12 pm
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