Inside the Paint - Tuesday
By Chris David
As we begin the second month of 2010, the NBA continues to pick up the pace and right now it looks like everybody is chasing Cleveland. The Cavaliers are a league-best 38-11 and they own a 5 ½-game lead for the top seed in the Eastern Conference and recently completed a season sweep of the defending champions Los Angeles Lakers.
Cleveland just posted a 12-3 straight up record in January and what’s more impressive is that three losses were by a combined six points and all of them came on the road too. Mike Brown’s team only managed to go 7-8 against the spread in the first month but it’s hard to cover every tonight when you’re laying double digits.
For Tuesday, we’re going to look at three non-conference battles, which include a matchup between the Cavaliers and Grizzlies from Quicken Loans Arena.
Let’s break ‘em down!
Memphis (25-21 SU, 26-19 ATS) at Cleveland (38-11 SU, 25-24 ATS)
As mentioned above, the Cavaliers are on a serious roll and they enter Tuesday’s showdown with a nine-game winning streak on the line. Cleveland is only 5-4 ATS during this run but it has covered the last four and three of those games were double-digit winners. We mention the margin of victory because the Cavs opened as 10 ½-point home favorites against Memphis tonight.
If you bet on the NBA nightly, then you’re well aware that the Grizzlies shouldn’t be taken lightly these days. Memphis has already surpassed the win totals from the three previous seasons that saw the team post 22, 22 and 24 victories. They have a nice young nucleus with O.J. Mayo, Rudy Gay and Marc Gasol, plus forward Zach Randolph was recently name an All-Star reserve.
Prior to the start of last weekend, Memphis was 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in its last eight. Unfortunately, the team fell to the Spurs and Hornets over the weekend and now they face the L.A. Lakers on Monday. Tuesday will be the fourth game in five nights and second in two days. The Grizzlies haven’t been a solid wager on zero days rest, going 1-9 SU and 4-6 ATS. The ‘over’ has gone 7-3 over this span.
Regardless of fatigue, Memphis should be confident heading into this matchup, especially after beating Cleveland 111-109 on Dec. 8 as a seven-point home underdog. The win for the Grizzlies snapped a seven-game losing streak to the Cavaliers. Total players should note that the ‘over’ has gone 6-2 over the last eight games between the pair.
Atlanta (30-16 SU, 29-16 ATS) at Oklahoma City (26-21 SU, 28-19 ATS)
This non-conference battle looks even on paper and the oddsmakers tend to agree, opening Oklahoma City as a one-point home favorite over Atlanta.
The Thunder have bounced back with two straight wins at home against Denver (101-84) and Golden State (112-104) after dropping three consecutive contests. Despite a big improvement this season in the standings, Oklahoma City has been good at home (14-10 SU, 12-12 ATS) but nothing spectacular. The reason for success has a lot to do with the 12 victories the team has notched on the road.
Winning on the road is tough to do, but Atlanta has proven to be a tough match outside of Georgia (11-11 SU, 12-9 ATS) this season. However, the team is just 2-4 both SU and ATS in its last six road contests and the four losses were all by 15 points or more.
Oklahoma City edged Atlanta 94-91 on the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday, which snapped a three-game losing skid to the Hawks. These two teams have watched the ‘under’ go 4-0 in the last four encounters.
The Hawks have gone 13-5 SU and 12-6 ATS versus the West this season, but four of the losses were on the road and the one played at Philips Arena was the aforementioned setback to the Thunder.
L.A. Clippers (20-27 SU, 22-24 ATS) at Chicago (23-22 SU, 22-21 ATS)
If a game looks too easy, it usually is and that’s the case with the Bulls tonight. The oddsmakers didn’t post an early number due to the status of the Clippers’ center Chris Kaman. I’m not sure how much of a difference the big man will be for Los Angeles, who has dropped four (1-3 ATS) in a row on the road.
While the Clippers have been cold, the Bulls have been red-hot. Chicago just concluded a seven-game road trip that started with two losses and ended with five straight wins. Ironically, the second loss on that trip was to the Clippers (97-104). Los Angeles probably should’ve won by more but they shot 59 percent (23-of-39) from the stripe. Make a note that Kaman had 20 points in the win for the Clips.
Chicago has gone 14-7 SU and 10-9 ATS at home this year, but the team is 3-7 ATS when favored between 3 and 9 points. With or without Kaman, that’s probably where the point-spread will land on this matchup.
Keep in mind that teams playing in their first home game after a long roadie are often suspect at the betting counter. However, they did have three days off to prepare and this Chicago team has been playing on a different level. If you back to the Sacramento loss (98-102) on Dec. 21 when the Bulls blew a 35-point lead midway through the third quarter, coach Vinny Del Negro and company have posted an eye opening record of 13-6 SU and 14-5 ATS.
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Milwaukee Bucks vs. Orlando Magic
The Milwaukee Bucks and the Orlando Magic will both be gunning for a victory on Tuesday when they meet at Amway Arena.
Andrew Bogut went for 22 points and 11 rebounds, as the Bucks handled the Heat 97-81 on Monday night.
Milwaukee cashed as 6-point road underdogs, while the teams played UNDER the 186-point total set by sportsbooks.
The Magic defeated Detroit 91-86 as a 5-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (187).
Dwight Howard delivered 16 points and 15 rebounds for Orlando, while J.J. Redick netted 17 points in the win.
Current streak:
Milwaukee has won 3 straight games.
Orlando has won 3 straight games.
Team records:
Milwaukee: 21-25 SU, 28-18 ATS
Orlando: 32-16 SU, 23-22-3 ATS
Milwaukee most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 5-5
Before playing New York are 2-8
After playing Miami are 5-5
After a win are 4-6
Orlando most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 5-5
Before playing Washington are 7-3
After playing Detroit are 5-5
After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
Milwaukee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 6 games
Orlando is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Orlando is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Orlando is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Orlando is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Milwaukee
Next up:
Milwaukee at New York, Friday, February 5
Orlando home to Washington, Friday, February 5
Toronto Raptors vs. Indiana Pacers
The Toronto Raptors and the Indiana Pacers will both be trying to pick up a win on Tuesday when they battle at Conseco Fieldhouse.
The Raptors defeated Indiana 117-102 as an 8-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (218).
Chris Bosh scored 26 points to go with 15 rebounds and seven assists for Toronto, while Andrea Bargnani added 17 points in the win.
Luther Head led Indiana with 15 points, and Brandon Rush had 14 points.
Current streak:
Toronto has won 5 straight games.
Indiana has lost 3 straight games.
Team records:
Toronto: 26-22 SU, 25-23 ATS
Indiana: 16-32 SU, 20-28 ATS
Toronto most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 4-6
Before playing New Jersey are 6-4
After playing Indiana are 3-7
After a win are 7-3
Indiana most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 6-4
Before playing Detroit are 2-8
After playing Toronto are 5-5
After a loss are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Toronto's last 8 games on the road
Toronto is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Indiana's last 9 games
Indiana is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 6 games when playing Toronto
Next up:
Toronto home to New Jersey, Wednesday, February 3
Indiana home to Detroit, Friday, February 5
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Memphis Grizzlies and the Cleveland Cavaliers will both be gunning for a victory on Tuesday when they meet at Quicken Loans Arena.
Rudy Gay drained 25 points to lift the Grizzlies past the Lakers 95-93 on Monday night.
Memphis covered as 1-point home favorites, while the game played UNDER the 206-point total listed by oddsmakers.
The Cavaliers defeated the Clippers 114-89 as a 12-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (190).
LeBron James scored 32 points and had 11 assists for Cleveland and Shaquille O'Neal added 16 points and 12 rebounds in the win.
Current streak:
Cleveland has won 8 straight games.
Team records:
Memphis: 26-21 SU, 27-20 ATS
Cleveland: 38-11 SU, 24-23-2 ATS
Memphis most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 5-5
Before playing Houston are 2-8
After playing LA Lakers are 3-7
After a win are 6-4
Cleveland most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 9-1
Before playing Miami are 7-3
After playing LA Clippers are 6-4
After a win are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Memphis's last 7 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Memphis's last 11 games on the road
Memphis is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Memphis is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Memphis
Cleveland is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Memphis
Next up:
Memphis home to Houston, Friday, February 5
Cleveland home to Miami, Thursday, February 4
Detroit Pistons vs. New Jersey Nets
The Detroit Pistons and the New Jersey Nets will both be gunning for a victory on Tuesday when they meet at Izod Center.
The Pistons lost to Orlando 91-86 as a 5-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (187).
Rodney Stuckey led Detroit with 18 points and Jonas Jerebko had 16 points and nine rebounds.
The Nets lost to Philadelphia 83-79 as a 6-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (189.5).
Brook Lopez and Jarvis Hayes each netted 18 points for New Jersey in the loss.
Current streak:
Detroit has lost 5 straight games.
New Jersey has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Detroit: 15-31 SU, 19-25-2 ATS
New Jersey: 4-42 SU, 16-29-1 ATS
Detroit most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 6-4
Before playing Indiana are 7-3
After playing Orlando are 6-4
After a loss are 2-8
New Jersey most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 2-8
Before playing Toronto are 2-8
After playing Philadelphia are 4-6
After a loss are 1-9
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Detroit's last 8 games
Detroit is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing New Jersey
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing New Jersey
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Jersey's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Jersey's last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Jersey's last 7 games at home
New Jersey is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Next up:
Detroit at Indiana, Friday, February 5
New Jersey at Toronto, Wednesday, February 3
Atlanta Hawks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Atlanta Hawks and the Oklahoma City Thunder will both be trying to pick up a win on Tuesday when they battle at Ford Center.
The Hawks were defeated 104-86 by the Magic last time out, as 6-point underdogs. That game's 190 points went UNDER the posted total of 195.5.
Joe Johnson led the Hawks with 19 points, six rebounds, and seven assists.
The Thunder defeated Golden State 112-104 as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (214).
Kevin Durant poured in 45 points and grabbed 11 rebounds for Oklahoma City, while Russell Westbrook added 28 points in the win.
Current streak:
Oklahoma City has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Atlanta: 30-16 SU, 30-16 ATS
Oklahoma City: 26-21 SU, 28-19 ATS
Atlanta most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 6-4
Before playing LA Clippers are 1-9
After playing Orlando are 4-6
After a loss are 7-3
Oklahoma City most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 5-5
Before playing New Orleans are 4-6
After playing Golden State are 3-7
After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Oklahoma City
Atlanta is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Oklahoma City is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oklahoma City's last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Next up:
Atlanta home to LA Clippers, Wednesday, February 3
Oklahoma City at New Orleans, Wednesday, February 3
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Chicago Bulls
The Los Angeles Clippers and the Chicago Bulls will both be gunning for a victory on Tuesday when they meet at United Center.
The Clippers lost to Cleveland 114-89 as a 12-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (190).
Baron Davis led the Clippers with 30 points and DeAndre Jordan delivered 11 points and 13 rebounds.
The Bulls blew a late lead but managed to pull out a 108-106 victory over the Hornets in overtime on Friday. The Bulls won that game as a 4-point underdog, and the 214 points sailed OVER the posted total of 197.
Joakim Noah finished with a double-double, pouring in 13 points to go with 18 rebounds. Luol Deng netted a team-high 26 points in the win.
Current streak:
Los Angeles has lost 4 straight games.
Chicago has won 5 straight games.
Team records:
Los Angeles: 20-27 SU, 22-25 ATS
Chicago: 23-22 SU, 22-21-2 ATS
Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 2-8
Before playing Atlanta are 4-6
After playing Cleveland are 6-4
After a loss are 4-6
Chicago most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 4-6
Before playing Philadelphia are 5-5
After playing New Orleans are 8-2
After a win are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 6 of the LA Clippers last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago
LA Clippers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
LA Clippers are 14-5 SU in their last 19 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the LA Clippers last 6 games
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
Next up:
LA Clippers at Atlanta, Wednesday, February 3
Chicago at Philadelphia, Wednesday, February 3
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets
The Golden State Warriors and the Houston Rockets will both be trying to pick up a win on Tuesday when they battle at Toyota Center.
The Warriors lost to Oklahoma City 112-104 as an 8.5-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (214).
Corey Maggette led Golden State with 26 points and Monta Ellis deposited 25 points.
The Rockets lost to Phoenix 115-11 in overtime as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (218.5).
Aaron Brooks led Houston with 24 points and Tony Ariza deposited 21 points.
Current streak:
Golden State has lost 5 straight games.
Team records:
Golden State: 13-33 SU, 26-19-1 ATS
Houston: 25-22 SU, 22-25 ATS
Golden State most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 3-7
Before playing Dallas are 5-5
After playing Oklahoma City are 4-6
After a loss are 3-7
Houston most recently:
When playing on Tuesday are 6-4
Before playing Memphis are 7-3
After playing Phoenix are 4-6
After a loss are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
Golden State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Golden State's last 14 games when playing Houston
Golden State is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing at home against Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Houston's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Houston's last 14 games when playing Golden State
Next up:
Golden State at Dallas, Wednesday, February 3
Houston at Memphis, Friday, February 5
Memphis (26-21, 27-19-1 ATS) at Cleveland (38-11, 25-23-1 ATS)
One day after holding off Kobe Bryant and the Lakers, the Grizzlies make their only visit of the season to Quicken Loans Arena to battle LeBron James and the red-hot Cavaliers.
Zack Randolph scored 22 points and pulled down 17 rebounds as Memphis rallied from a late four-point deficit and beat Los Angeles 95-93 as a one-point home underdog Monday. The Grizzlies halted a brief two-game losing skid with the victory and are now on a 16-5 SU roll. They’ve also been one of the best moneymakers in the NBA since early December, going 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 contests, including 8-3 ATS on the road.
Cleveland ran its winning streak to eight in a row with Sunday’s 114-89 rout of the Clippers, with James (32 points, 11 assists) contributing a double-double in 40 minutes of action. The Cavaliers easily cashed as a 12-point home favorite, their fourth straight spread-cover following a 3-8-1 ATS slump. The Cavs have won their last three games against the TWolves (home), Pacers (road) and Clippers (home) by 14, 21 and 25 points after winning their previous five by a total of 17 points, including three one-point victories.
Memphis ended a seven-game SU and five-game ATS losing skid to Cleveland back on Dec. 8, winning 111-109 in overtime as a 7½-point home underdog. The Grizzlies have lost five straight games at Quicken Loans Arena, including a 20-point defeat in 2008 and a 15-point setback last year.
Memphis is 7-19-1 ATS in its last 27 games on Tuesday, but aside from that, this club is on pointspread tears of 15-6-1 overall, 7-2 on the highway, 12-3 as an underdog, 7-3 when catching between five and 10½ points, 21-6-1 against Eastern Conference squads and 4-0 versus the Central Division.
In addition to cashing in four straight overall and four of five as a favorite, the Cavaliers are on a 10-4 ATS roll against Southwest Division opponents. However, they’re 1-4 ATS in their last five on Tuesday and 1-5 ATS in their last six when laying between five and 10½ points at home.
The Grizzlies sport “over” streaks of 13-7 overall, 20-8 as a visitor, 8-3 when playing on back-to-back nights, 10-4 as a ‘dog, 20-7 as a ‘dog of five to 10½ points, 6-2 against winning teams and 4-0 on Tuesday. Likewise, Cleveland has topped the total in five of six at home (all as a favorite), seven of nine as a chalk and four of five against the Western Conference. Finally, six of the last seven meetings between these teams have gone over the posted price, as have seven of the last nine clashes in Cleveland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Atlanta (30-16 SU and ATS) at Oklahoma City (26-21, 28-19 ATS)
The Hawks, who play just .500 ball on the highway, look to snap a two-game road losing skid when they trek to the Ford Center for a duel with Kevin Durant and the Thunder.
Atlanta followed up Friday’s impressive nine-point home win over Boston with Saturday’s ugly 104-86 loss at Southeast Division rival Orlando, falling way short as a 5½-point road underdog. The Hawks, who also suffered a 15-ponit loss at San Antonio on Wednesday, are just 11-11 as a visitor (13-9 ATS). Still, the Hawks enter February on an 8-4 SU and ATS roll. Also, the SU winner has covered the spread in 42 of Atlanta’s 46 games, including the last seven in a row, and the winner is 20-2 ATS in its 22 roadies.
Oklahoma City has bounced back from a three-game losing skid with back-to-back home wins over Denver (101-84) and Golden State (112-104). The Thunder easily covering as a two-point favorite versus the Nuggets but just missed as an 8½-point chalk in Sunday’s win over the Warriors despite a season-high 45 points from Durant, who has now scored at least 25 points in 21 consecutive games, tallying 30 or more 17 times during this stretch. Durant is averaging 29.6 ppg on the season
The Thunder have won eight of their last 11 at the Ford Center, going just 5-6 ATS (all as a favorite). In fact, the underdog is 12-4 ATS in Oklahoma City’s last 16 games.
Atlanta entered this season with a three-game winning streak against the Thunder, but that ended Jan. 18 in Georgia, as Oklahoma City pulled out a 94-91 victory, cashing as a six-point underdog with Durant (29 points) and Jeff Green (15 points, 11 rebounds) leading the way. The Thunder franchise – going back to its days as the Seattle SuperSonics – is 11-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings with the Hawks. Also, the ‘dog has gotten the money in four of the last five head-to-head battles.
Atlanta is on ATS runs of 19-8-1 against the Western Conference, 8-2-1 versus the Northwest Division, 12-3-1 after a SU loss, 7-0-1 after a double-digit defeat and 10-2 after a non-cover, but the Hawks are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 when catching less than five points on the road.
Aside from a 3-7 ATS mark in their last 10 as a favorite, the Thunder are on positive pointspread stretches of 4-1 against the Eastern Conference, 18-5 on Tuesday, 6-0 against winning teams, and 37-17 after a non-cover. In fact, only twice all year has Oklahoma City failed to cash in consecutive games.
These teams have stayed under the total in each of their last four meetings overall and their last four battles in Oklahoma City. Furthermore, the Thunder carry “under” trends of 6-2 overall, 7-3 at home (all as a favorite), 5-1 when laying less than five points at home and 7-0-1 on Tuesday. Also, Atlanta sports “under” trends of 4-1-1 on the road, 3-1-1 as an underdog, 3-1-1 against the Western Conference and 5-0 on Tuesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA RoundUp For 2/2
By Dan Bebe
Bucks @ Magic - Orlando by 10, with a total of 195.5. Milwaukee completes a back-to-back situation in Florida after dominating the Heat last night. Do we still have the confidence to continue to back Milwaukee even with the back-to-back, and playing against a Magic team that has come on strong of late? Milwaukee is on double-revenge here, losing by a narrow margin at home to Orlando, then getting smacked around on the road earlier this year. Interestingly, that game featured a Magic team on FOUR days of rest, a situation that probably won't be replicated for quite some time, though if Orlando does indeed have Milwaukee's number, this is a dangerous game to wager on. Milwaukee has covered 8 straight games, including twice on the second half of back-to-backs during this current stretch, so perhaps we shouldn't be intimidated by the fact that the Bucks are in a fatigue spot. Also, they were embarrassed the last time they played in Orlando, so I'm thinking Milwaukee is going to want to show how much better they are now. It doesn't really hurt our case that the only cover Orlando has against the Central division was that blowout over the Bucks at home just over a month ago. This is a confusing game, for sure, since the big spread might make the Bucks seem like a trap, but I legitimately feel like this is a reasonable line for books to set to get split money. I BARELY lean to the Bucks to keep it going, and I lean strongly to the Under here, as the total is right where it's been in each of the two previous matchups, both of which went over the total. Oddsmakers aren't leaving it at 195.5 for no reason, folks.
Raptors @ Pacers - This line is OFF. This game completes a Raptors-Pacers home-and-home situation, with the Raptors winning the first half in Canada, and covering with a strong second half. I'm very curious where we see this one open up, since the last one had the Raptors favored by 8.5, and they won by 15. If we see the 6-point home court flip, Pacers should be getting a couple points at home, but I'm not sure I can legitimately tell anyone to back Indiana right now. Head Coach Jim O'Brien has left the team due to a death in the family, so they're without their coach, and they've not only lost 3 straight, but they've been destroyed in all 3. This line is going to really determine how I feel about this game. I don't say that often, but at this moment, the surging Raptors look like a great play, even with the home-and-home revenge situation, but if oddsmakers set a line where Toronto looks like the "too easy" play. The total is going to be the sweet spot, once again. The last game featured a final score that fell within a half-point of the posted total. I say we follow the line shift, and if oddsmakers open this one up higher, let's take a peek at the over, and vice versa if it is opened lower. No leans as of yet, but I'll definitely pull something together for tomorrow when we know a little more about the line. I know, I apologize for being so wishy-washy on these first two games, but that's just how it is sometimes. Let's hope the rest of the card affords more obvious value as we plow through.
Grizzlies @ Cavaliers - Cleveland by 10.5 with a total of 201.5. This is a terrible spot for the Grizz, flat out. You guys know how much I hate laying a big spread in the NBA, but this has the potential to be one of those spots. The Cavs have been steamrolling loser-teams over the last week, so this is a great opportunity for them to step up and play big against one of the up-and-coming squads of 2010. And this might sound nuts, but this is actually a revenge game for the Cavaliers, who lost in a tough spot in Memphis earlier this season 111-109. I think the total in this game is pretty fair, as the total for the last one was set in the mid 190's, and oddsmakers have adjusted accordingly following the 220-point game in Memphis. Cleveland isn't going to want to get caught up in a game that fast, and the Grizzlies have been quite prone to playing some more intense defensive games, generally finding their way to some unders lately. I lean just slightly to the Under on the total, but I wanted to talk about that first since my feelings aren't that strong. The side jumps out as, amazingly, a value on the huge favorite. Cleveland has won 8 straight games, covering their last 4 in a row, so they're not only winning, they're clobbering, and this game has that feel of a spread set ultra-high to lure bettors into taking the road underdog. This is the second game of a long homestand for the Cavs, generally a favorable spot, and this is a true fatigue spot for the Grizz off the big home win over the Lakers. I lean strongly to the Cavs.
Pistons @ Nets - This line is OFF. Wow. Worst game of the new year, anyone? Detroit has lost 5 straight games, and is 0-4-1 ATS in that stretch. They're slowly trying to work all the injured bodies back into the lineup, and with 3 straight Unders, perhaps that would have been the wise play, since Detroit is really struggling to get any kind of consistent offensive chemistry as Tayshaun, Ben Gordon, Charlie V, Rip, and hopefully soon, Will Bynum try to work their way back into the lineup. The Nets have actually covered 3 straight games, winning just 1 of the 3, but at least finally not losing big. The Nets have played 6 straight Unders. I know which way the trends point, but I have a feeling this total is going to come out so low that even thinking about the Under is going to make me ill. This one might creep down into the 170's if we're really lucky, haha. No, but really, it's going to be low, and it's probably going to be accurate. I hate everything about this game, sides, totals, everything. If you desperately want me to type more, write a note, fold it up, and set it on fire.
Hawks @ Thunder - A pick with a total of 191.5. This game might be more fun to watch than to bet on. Kevin Durant has officially elevated himself to star status, capped by his MONSTER game against the defense-phobic Warriors. I mean, damn! He is the kind of player that everyone should just love to watch. He's tall, fast, has a gorgeous jumper - I admit, man-crush is starting to form. However, the wacky angles in this game make it a very difficult play to make. Let's fire 'em off, lightning round style. The Hawks are revenging a home loss to these Thunder just 2 weeks ago, a game where Atlanta shot just 40% from the field on their home court. That won't sit well, though the Hawks are actually just 1-6 ATS on home-loss revenge. Atlanta is a perfect 7-0 ATS coming off big losses (10+ points), and they're fresh off getting spanked in Orlando on the 30th. Oklahoma City is on the final game of a 4-game homestand, so they're liable to play tough here. Hawks face the Clippers tomorrow at home, so this game starts a back-to-back, and that's always a little tricky. Still, when all is said and done, I have to make a slight lean to the Hawks - I think Atlanta bounces back from the Orlando failure and wins this game with a strong final couple minutes. It's going to be a stressful one, that's my real prediction. The total looks fair to me, coming down a few points off the first meeting due to a low-scoring game in Atlanta. I lean just a microscopic lean to the Over, but it's dicey, at best.
Clippers @ Bulls - This line is OFF. This is a pure value spot on Clippers, but do we think we'll get even a marginal effort from them? The Clippers are in their 7th game of an 8-game road trip, which would normally be a time we would stop and note how tired and homesick they are, but I think this spot is different. The Clips have lost 4 straight, including blowout losses to the Nets, Wolves and Cavs, the last of which is less depressing than the first two. I think we may have found the bottoming out spot with Cleveland just running LA right out of the building. I get the feeling the Clippers are going to want to try to salvage the end of the road trip with such a poor middle, and this is an opportunity to squeeze out a win before tomorrow's game in Atlanta. Still, can they actually get it done? They've looked beyond horrible, especially on the defensive end, and if you're not guarding anyone on the road, you're going to get beat. They've allowed progressively more points to each of the last 3 teams -- 103 to the Nets, 111 to the Wolves, and 114 to the Cavs despite the entire 4th quarter of the Cleveland game being trademark garbage time. What about the Bulls? Well, they're surging, winning 5 consecutive road games as the underdog, and really giving new meaning to the idea of finishing strong on a 7-game roadie. Now, in this first game home since January 15th, do we think Chicago suffers the home sluggishness? I definitely think Chicago starts slow, but I fear they'll wake up and score 65 in the second half. I lean just a tiny bit towards the Clippers, but again, the line will provide more information on how the oddsmakers and sharps feel about these competing angles. I also like the Over, unless the Clippers magically remember how to d-up.
Warriors @ Rockets - Houston by 6.5 with a total of 219. The Warriors seem like a team the oddsmakers are starting to figure out. Yes, the two home losses to the Hornets and Bobcats were a bit off the spread, but their loss to the Thunder was within a half point of the line, and the two games prior to the two home losses were each within a bucket of the line. That's what makes me think this line is pretty fair, too. Why? Well, when you have two teams playing one another, and neither is a true "public" team, oddsmakers can release a true line that is very close to the fair line, assuming a 50/50 winner will produce a win for the books, since the action will be mostly split. That fact alone makes me think that shying away from this game might be the best course of action. Still, there are a few points that make the Warriors an interesting choice, here. They have had a knack for ending up on the right side of those 1-bucket ATS winners, covering 6 of 8 since mid-January, and I'm not sure that the power rankings have needed to adjust, since books aren't losing any money on this club. If it ain't broke, right? So, here we have the Rockets, more than likely the public selection, if only by a hair, slumping like absolutely nobody's business, and people haven't seemed to notice. The Rockets are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games, 1-8 as the favorite. The Warriors are also on double home-revenge, as Houston narrowly clipped Golden State twice in the Bay Area. Houston was playing much better basketball then, including much better defense; I lean to the Warriors. Houston has played to 8 of 10 overs, courtesy of not stopping anyone, and the Warriors have played to 3 straight overs, as well. I lean Over, though I think this total is within 2-3 points of the final score.
Trend Report - Tuesday
By Ed Meyer
Clippers at Bulls – The Clippers are 0-6 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since March 29, 2005 as a dog after a loss when their opponent is off an overtime game. The Bulls are 10-0 ATS (10.4 ppg) since December 31, 2007 after a road win in which they allowed less than 40% from the field.
Grizzlies at Cavaliers – The Grizzlies are 8-0 ATS (6.6 ppg) since April 08, 1998 with no rest after a win in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight. The Cavaliers are 10-0 ATS (10.1 ppg) since November 15, 2004 at home with at most one day of rest off a win in which they never trailed. The Cavaliers are 10-0-1 ATS (10.2 ppg) since April 14, 2007 at home with at most one day of rest after a double digit win in which they shot at least 50% from the field.
Bucks at Magic – The Bucks are 0-7 ATS (-5.7 ppg) since April 09, 2007 when the ball was stolen from them at least ten times in each of their last two games. The Magic are 0-9 ATS (-11.5 ppg) since December 25, 1995 with at least one day of rest after a road win in which they has more than 10 refereed turnovers.
Pistons at Nets – The Pistons are 0-11-1 ATS (-5.3 ppg) since January 14, 2009 after a home loss in which their DPA was negative. The Nets are 0-8 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since February 12, 2008 before playing the Raptors. The Nets are 0-7 ATS (-13.1 ppg) since November 02, 2007 at home after a game at home in which they allowed less than 40% from the field.
Raptors at Pacers – The Raptors are 10-0 ATS (10.1 ppg) since December 12, 2008 with at least one day of rest after a win in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Pacers are 9-0 ATS (8.3 ppg) since December 26, 1995 as a home dog with at least one day of rest after a road loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. The Pacers are 0-5 ATS (-5.2 ppg) since November 13, 2004 at home after a game on the road in which they scored at least 25 more points than in the game before. The Pacers are 5-0 ATS (3.7 ppg) since March 24, 2006 at home when their next game is at home versus an opponent they beat as an underdog in their previous same-season match-up.
Warriors at Rockets – The Warriors are 5-0 ATS (8.5 ppg) since January 22, 2007 on the road with at most one day of rest after a loss in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average. The Rockets are 0-8 ATS (-5.8 ppg) since November 16, 2006 after a game at home in which they were outshot by at least 10 percent. The Rockets are 0-7 ATS (-5.3 ppg) since February 06, 1996 after a home loss in which they attempted at least 10 more three pointers than their season-to-date average. The Rockets are 7-0-1 ATS (4.9 ppg) since February 11, 2008 at home and when facing a team they beat in their previous two match-ups of the season. The Rockets are 7-0 ATS (11.7 ppg) since March 29, 2006 off an overtime loss.
Hawks at Thunder – The Hawks are 10-0 ATS (9.8 ppg) since November 14, 2000 as a dog with at least one day of rest after a loss in which they had five or fewer offensive rebounds. The Hawks are 8-0 ATS (9.1 ppg) since April 11, 2008 on the road after a game on the road in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.
No Magic Needed
By SportsPic
Orlando which has stepped up it's play lately with wins in six of seven (4-3 ATS) netting 100 points per game while holding opponents to 91.7 points per contest have history on their side when they host the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday. Thrashing Bucks 117-92 on Amway Arena hardwood back on December 30th as 10.5 point favorites Dwight Howard and his Magicians have now won eight straight (6-2 ATS), eleven of thirteen (8-5 ATS) as host in this series. No need bucking the trend here, Magic are one of the best at protecting home court (18-4, 12-10 ATS) scoring 104.3 points per game in defeating visitors by a 10.4 margin. Bucks on the other hand despite the win Monday at Miami are not at they're best away from Bradley Center going 6-18 (14-10 ATS) netting 96.8 PPG. Carving out a win in Orlando will be tough at best, Bucks are 1-7 (2-5-1 ATS) the past eight away in the second of back-2-back games and 2-35 (12-23-2 ATS) the past thirty-seven on the road when the host team breaks the century mark in scoring. Conversely, Magic are a solid 39-7 (29-17 ATS) in front of the home crowd when the visitors scores <100 PPG.