Tuesday's Best NBA Bet
Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat (-11, 199)
It seems like all the Indiana Pacers needed to get back into the Eastern Conference playoff hunt was a little TLC from their head coach.
"He always has positive things to say. He tries to make you feel special. He's giving a lot of guys confidence. There's a huge parallel between him and Doc (Rivers) in terms of personality and love of the game," said Indiana swingman Dahntay Jones. "It's a good quality to have in a coach. He keeps our heads up. What Frank (Vogel) is doing is making sure that every day starts with a compliment and that's what we need."
As a result of getting some sugar from Vogel, their interim coach, as opposed to vinegar, from ex-coach Jim O’Brien, Indiana has reeled off four straight wins. Over that span the team is 3-1 ATS and has seen the under hit three times as the team is playing improved defense.
And it was strong defense that the Pacers relied on the last time the team faced the Heat. By holding Miami to a mere 38.7 percent shooting and forcing an absurd 22 turnovers the visitors were able to leave with a stunning 93-77 win.
"I think everyone is a little more loose now and we're doing different things," forward Josh McRoberts said. "I have a lot of respect for Coach O'Brien, but maybe sometimes change loosens things up. We now have a little bit more of a rotation and that's working."
Pick: Indiana
NBA Betting Preview: LA Clippers at Magic
By: Brad Young
You would be hard pressed to find any sports team 12 games under .500 that has created a buzz quite like the Los Angeles Clippers. This historically inept franchise is well on its way to another entry into the NBA Draft, but the team is armed with one of the league’s most exciting players.
Forward Blake Griffin continues to produce nightly highlights for Los Angeles (19-31 straight up, 25-24-1 against the spread), and is all but a lock to win the league’s Rookie of the Year Award. The Clippers face an Orlando squad (32-20 SU, 22-29-1 ATS) that would be the fifth-seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs if the regular season ended today.
Los Angeles continues a lengthy 11-game road trip mired in a three-game SU losing streak. The Clippers continued their downward spiral with Sunday’s setback to Miami as an 11½-point road underdog, 97-79. The combined 176 points never seriously threatened the 203-point closing total, ending a string of three consecutive ‘over’ outings.
The Clippers trailed by 11 points at halftime, 47-36, and never made a serious charge in the second half. Both teams grabbed 44 rebounds, but Los Angeles was on the short end of assists (19-12) and turnovers forced (19-13). The Clippers shot a dismal 33 percent (25-of-77) from the field, and 25 percent (6-of-24) from 3-point land.
Griffin paced the offense once again with 21 points and 16 rebounds, while guard Randy Foye added 15. Point guard Baron Davis provided 14 points and six assists in the setback, while forward Ryan Gomes had 12 points.
Orlando dropped to 1-3 SU its last four games after dropping Sunday’s matchup at Boston as a four-point underdog, 91-80. The combined 171 points failed to topple the 192 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the second consecutive contest. The Magic are now just 1-5 ATS their past six performances.
Orlando outrebounded the Celtics, 46-41, but struggled by shooting a disappointing 34 percent (32-of-93) from the field and 13 percent (3-of-24) from behind the arc. Center Dwight Howard accounted for 28 points and 13 rebounds in the loss, while forward Ryan Anderson had 12 and seven.
Orlando is a solid 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS the previous eight meetings with Los Angeles, while the ‘under’ has gone 4-1-1 the past six matchups. The Magic took the lone encounter this season Dec. 12 as a 7½-point home ‘chalk,’ 94-85, while the combined 179 points went ‘under’ the 190½-point closing total. The favorite is 16-3-2 ATS the previous 21 games in this series.
Los Angeles guard Eric Gordon is expected to miss a couple more weeks of action due to an injured wrist. The Clippers continue their road trip with games against New York, Cleveland, Toronto, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Oklahoma City, New Orleans and the Lakers. Los Angeles has seen the ‘over’ go 8-2-1 its last 11 road games.
Orlando forward Brandon Bass is ‘out’ indefinitely due to an injured ankle. The Magic travel to Philadelphia after this contest before returning home for a lengthy seven-game homestand. Orlando has seen the ‘under’ go 6-2 its past eight home outings, and the ‘under’ is 22-8-1 its previous 31 games against Pacific Division opponents.
Tuesday’s tip-off is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. PT from Orlando’s Amway Center.
NBA Odds: Roaring Thunder host Grizzlies
By: Michael Robinson
The Oklahoma City Thunder look to continue their recent winning streak when they host Memphis on Tuesday night. The Grizzlies will be playing in a back-to-back situation, something they’ve excelled at this year against the spread.
Oklahoma City (33-17 straight-up, 26-24 ATS) is 3-0 SU and ATS in its last three games with a home win over New Orleans (104-93) and road tilts at Phoenix (111-107) and Utah (121-105).
The NBA’s leading scorer Kevin Durant (29 PPG) scored just 22.5 PPG in the two weekend road games, but that’s a good thing. The Thunder are too reliant on Durant and Russell Westbrook (22.5 PPG) and are more successful when the supporting cast steps up.
Forward Jeff Green (15.5 PPG) had 28 points at Phoenix and 20 at Utah. The team is 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS when he scores 20 points or more this season. James Harden (10.2 PPG) also had a combined 27 points over the weekend as he tries to become a consistent scorer off the bench.
Oklahoma City leads the Northwest Division by 3½-games over Denver. This division has taken a real nosedive this year with Denver’s Carmelo Anthony wanting out, Utah losing Carlos Boozer to free agency and Portland’s myriad of injuries.
The Thunder have the fourth-best record in the Western Conference, but can’t compete with the Lakers and Spurs in the playoffs unless at least four-five guys are contributing offensively. Defense also has to improve as their 102.6 PPG allowed ranks 21st.
The ‘over’ is 5-1 in Oklahoma City’s last six games, although it would have been 3-2-1 if not for two overtime games. The ‘over’ is a big 18-7 at home this year. Home scoring (107.2 PPG) ranks third in the NBA.
Memphis (27-25 SU, 32-19-1 ATS) is underrated, with the casual fan not realizing its above .500 and a half-game behind Portland for the eighth playoff spot. It hasn’t had a winning record or made the playoffs since 2005-2006.
The Grizzlies’ last game was Saturday night in Houston, a 95-93 overtime loss. That snapped a five-game winning streak, but still got the ‘cover’ as 4 ½-point underdogs. They’re 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
Memphis will host the L.A. Lakers on Monday night before traveling to Oklahoma City on Tuesday. The team is 11-3-1 ATS in back-to-back situations this year (8-1 ATS in the last nine). The Thunder will be far more rested, but are just 3-5 ATS on two days rest this season.
Memphis has played well the last six games without guard O.J. Mayo, who’s serving a 10-game drug suspension. He had been coming off the bench and his scoring (12.2 PPG) is way down from last season (17.5 PPG). Sam Young is currently starting at shooting guard.
Zach Randolph is the team’s leading scorer (20.3 PPG) and rebounder (13.3 RPG). He’s always been able to put up good numbers, but playing winning basketball has often been a foreign concept.
Small forward Rudy Gay (20.1 PPG), point guard Mike Conley (13.4 PPG, 6.8 APG) and big man Marc Gasol (11.9 PPG, 7.0 RPG) round out a solid starting unit. Bench scoring is weak, especially with Mayo out.
Memphis is one of the best ATS teams, including 18-11 away (11-18 SU). The ‘under’ is 6-0 in its last six road games and 19-10 this year.
These teams met twice in January, with the home team winning and ‘covering’ both. The ‘over’ went 2-0 and is 5-0 in the last five games in Oklahoma City. Memphis is 1-4 ATS in the last five games in Oklahoma City.
There are no major injuries to report. Tip-off from Oklahoma City Arena will be at 5 p.m. (PT) and broadcast locally.
NBA RoundUp for 2/8
by Dan Bebe
Philadelphia 76ers @ Atlanta Hawks (-5) with a total of 193
The Sixers head into Atlanta off a rare set of back-to-back ATS defeats. Yes, they won 1 of the 2 games with the Knicks, but failed to cover either, a sure sign that oddsmakers are beginning to catch up with the Sixers tremendous ATS mark to this point. And, with that in mind, this line is a tad on the low side, as well. In many cases, I might argue this line is low because Atlanta has issues, and in fairness, Atlanta does have a few. Here, however, I think we might be staring down the barrel of a line that is, at long last, right about where it should be. Atlanta has defeated the Sixers twice this season, first by 3 on the road, then by 5 at home, so Philadelphia has been right there in both games, but unable to clear the hurdle. This game will likely be played pretty close, as well, and I only wonder if Philly can channel that double revenge and squeak out a win, or if they'll get nipped by the bigger, stronger team once again. I wish we could get 5.5 or 6, but even at the low number, the double revenge just barely tips the scale towards the SIXERS, and if the road team is going to come in hot, take a peek at the OVER.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Orlando Magic (-9.5) with a total of 201.5
The Clippers are probably going to cover one of the next two games, either this one, or tomorrow's tough back-to-back in New York. LA is a strong rebounding team, which makes them a tough club to blow out, and in all likelihood, the Clippers are going to be seeing some pretty sizable spreads in both games, due to venue and tomorrow, due to fatigue. The Clippers are also on home revenge in both games, and I'm sure they'd love to prevent a season sweep at the hands of either ballclub, or both. With Orlando, the Clippers are facing one of the few teams with a player that can legitimately outrebound Blake Griffin. With the Knicks, the Clippers get a chance to go toe-to-toe with a team that I believe they should have beat in LA. The Knicks shot a ridiculous volume of free throws in that game, and despite being completely exhausted, the Clippers let New York escape without forcing them to shoot to win. I'd be most inclined to watch how this one plays out, but I think if we lean CLIPPERS both today and tomorrow, we'll go 1-1 at worst, and I like the OVER.
San Antonio Spurs (-6.5) @ Detroit Pistons with a total of 190
For a while it seemed like Detroit was going to be content to just run up and down the court and try to shoot its way into a few wins, but lately, it seems like the team is taking itself much more seriously. Yes, Charlotte, Jersey and Milwaukee, a trio of slow tempo opponents, has done nothing to push the score of Pistons games higher, but Detroit isn't exactly fighting the plodding pace. That tells us one main thing - Detroit is content to play at the opponent's speed. They have played to Unders against the last 3 opponents, Overs against Denver and New York, and so on. Unfortunately, it's unclear how the Spurs truly want to play. We know they're a much more fluid offense, so that lends itself to the Over, and the Spurs defense isn't quite as strong on the road as it is at home, but at the same time, this is game 4 of the Spurs Rodeo trip, and also the game that marked the flip from the Western half to the Eastern half. Will the Spurs come out sluggish, or will they push the pace and try to jump on Detroit early? It's a very large number to lay on the road after all that travel, so despite how strong the Spurs have been, tiny side lean to DETROIT, and slightly more intriguing lean on the OVER.
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat (-11) with a total of 199
Indiana has come out of the locker room under new coach Vogel and rattled off 4 straight wins...but, wait a minute, who did they beat? The Pacers took down the Raptors, the Cavs, the slumping Blazers, and the Nets. I'd go so far as to say that if the Pacers didn't come out of that stretch 3-1 they failed miserably, so 4-0 is good, but it's not that good. The shine is going to come off the not-so-new look Pacers very soon, and it's just a matter of figuring out when. This could certainly be the spot. Interestingly, the Pacers beat Miami by 16 earlier this season as a 9-point underdog. So, a couple months later, a little worse for the wear, the Pacers are catching 11 points. I know Indiana has a tendency to play up for good teams, but Miami's defense, like Chicago's, can absolutely shut down the Pacer offense. Miami has won, and covered, 5 in a row, too, so they're heating back up. I can't believe I'm saying this, but for the second straight game, I actually lean slightly to MIAMI, and I don't think it's a stretch to think Indy's run of 100+ scoring games comes to an end with an UNDER.
Toronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks (-8) with a total of 192
Isn't this just the ugliest game of the night (or week)? The Bucks, scuffling while trying to just get a damn healthy roster together, host the Raptors, winners of 1 in a row (after losing 13 straight). Someone has to win, thankfully, but that doesn't mean we have to watch it. Maybe we will, though. Toronto and Milwaukee happened to have faced off pretty darn recently with the Bucks picking up a 6-point road win up in Canada just a week and a half ago. Now, Toronto, potentially with some measure of revenge on the brain, rolls into the Bradley Center looking to extend that powerhouse winning roll. All joking aside, this is a bad spot for the Bucks, as they have to deal with a suddenly slightly less upset Raptors team while themselves trying to work through severe offensive issues. Milwaukee should win, but covering 8 is going to take some work. Lean to TORONTO and the UNDER.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-7) with a total of 206
This line jumped out at me as seeming awfully high, but let's see if we can determine how it got there. (time elapses) After scouring the archives, it seems like 7 is a bit of a cop-out. These teams are 1-1 against each other so far this season, with each club winning on its own court, and each club covering in that spot. The Grizzlies were 1.5-point underdogs at home, and won outright, while the Thunder were 7-point favorites at home in a game they won by 9. That's all fine and good, but if we look closer, the Grizzlies were actually playing the second half of a back-to-back that began in Utah the day before, just like this game. So, the line didn't move at all from meeting to meeting, even though Memphis has been kicking ass and taking names since that last matchup. What kind of game can we expect here? Well, Memphis is, once again, coming off a big game, playing the Lakers last night. However, in the last meeting here in Oklahoma, Memphis shot just 6.7% from 3-point land, just 43% from the field, got outrebounded by 6, and missed the cover by just a bucket. Fact is, even in the loss, Memphis dominated points in the paint, and if we sit on regression, MEMPHIS is looking to squeeze inside that rather large spread, and considering the level of mediocrity both clubs showed from the field, and the total still went over, this might very well do the same, lean to OVER.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets (-9) with a total of 217.5
For the exact same reasons that I liked Houston last night in Denver, I like Minnesota in this one. The Rockets are just not that strong on the defensive end, but extremely potent on offense, which, as we've seen a thousand times, makes winning big very difficult, but also makes losing big somewhat of a rarity, as well. This is a double-revenge game for Minnesota, and with both clubs playing the second half of a back-to-back, I believe Minnesota's rebounding beast named Kevin Love is going to be a huge factor. There are going to be plenty of clanked jumpers, and if the Wolves can clean the glass and get 10-to-15 second chance points, those are the types of numbers they'll need to keep up with the superior shooting of Houston. Houston also has a handful of days off before hosting Dallas, and I can't help but think that they'd rather just get into the locker room with a win and rest those legs, rather than put on their finest display of team basketball in this game. Winning by double digits isn't easy when you're likely to get outrebounded. Lean to the WOLVES and the UNDER.