Tuesday's Best NBA Bets
Washington Wizards at Charlotte Bobcats (N/A)
The Wizards were snowed out of Washington D.C. for the past four days, but they aren't complaining. Instead of braving the blizzard conditions in D.C. for a postponed game against the Atlanta Hawks, the Wizards opted to spend a long weekend in Orlando before flying to Charlotte for tonight's game.
The Wizards did practice while in the Sunshine State, but most took advantage of the detour. Antawn Jamison flew to Miami for the Super Bowl. He and DeShawn Stevenson have homes in the area and were able to sleep in their own beds and drive teammates around to shop for extra underwear.
"It ain't too bad. It's definitely better than being under 20 inches" of snow, Randy Foye told the Washington Post. "The biggest thing is, you always want to be with your family. But we got a job to do. We all understand the circumstances of trying to make the ride back to D.C., the dangers and stuff, but we stuck it out here."
With the All-Star break less than a week away, the much-needed R&R could work in the Wizards' favor, especially since the banged-up Bobcats may be without point guard Raymond Felton (ankle) and center Tyson Chandler (foot).
The Bobcats have lost three in a row while the Wizards are coming off an upset over the Magic - and a refreshing mini-vacation.
Pick: Wizards
Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers (+1, 191)
With Kobe and Melo nursing injuries, Kevin Durant is well on his way to becoming the next first-name-basis star in the West.
Durant has thrust his name into the MVP discussion along with LeBron and the two aforementioned stars in just his second season by averaging 29.7 points per game.
But the Thunder is proving it is more than a one-man team. Guard Russell Westbrook has been on the verge of triple-doubles for the past three games, averaging 19.7 points, 9.7 assists and 8.0 rebounds during that span. He had eight steals in Sunday's win over the Warriors, the Thunder's fifth straight.
"Everybody knows it's coming; he's been flirting with triple-doubles all season," Durant said. "A quadruple-double doesn't come around very often. He did a great job of initiating the offense, getting his steals and making easy baskets. We followed his lead tonight. He does a great job of filling up the stat sheet."
The Blazers are without Westbrook's counterpart, point guard Brandon Roy, and will have a hard time hanging with the Thunder's fresh, young legs.
Pick: Thunder
Tuesday NBA Tips
By Kevin Rogers
Only three days of action for NBA bettors to get wagers on before the All-Star Break this weekend in Dallas. However, the Tuesday card is loaded with plenty of solid matchups, including several late tip-offs. We'll start in South Florida with the struggling Heat looking to end a five-game skid.
Rockets (27-23 SU, 24-26 ATS) at Heat (24-27 SU, 24-27 ATS)
Miami has fallen apart at the seams recently, dropping five straight and six of seven, returning home to host Houston. The Heat finished up a three-game road trip at 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS at Boston, Cleveland, and Chicago. The Rockets arrive in Miami off a come-from-ahead home loss to the Sixers on Saturday.
The Heat has played just seven home games since the New Year, as opposed to 14 on the highway. Miami is 3-4 SU/ATS, with two of the victories coming over Indiana and Sacramento. The only substantial home victory in this stretch came against the Hawks on January 4 as a two-point underdog, 92-75. The scoring has fallen by the wayside for Erik Spoelstra's squad, tallying less than 100 points in five of the last six games.
The Rockets began the season as a solid road underdog play, starting 7-3 ATS. From December 23 to January 18, Houston went on an 0-6 ATS road 'dog slide. The Rockets are starting to bounce back in that role, compiling outright away 'dog victories at San Antonio and Memphis over the last two weeks. This is the only game all week for Rick Adelman's club, as the Rockets are off until next Tuesday against Utah after the contest in Miami.
The Rockets had owned the Heat prior to the first meeting of the season, winning and covering five of six meetings. Miami got the better of Houston at the Toyota Center on January 15, beating the Rockets, 115-106, as four-point 'dogs. Dwyane Wade put up a game-high 37 points in the victory, while ex-Rocket Rafer Alston added 17.
Hawks (32-17 SU, 31-18 ATS) at Grizzlies (26-24 SU, 27-22-1 ATS)
Memphis has hit the skids as of late, losing each of its last three games, hosting Atlanta at FedEx Forum. The Grizzlies' lone victory in their previous six contests came by two points over the Lakers last Monday, while going 1-5 ATS. The Hawks have been off since beating the Bulls on Friday, as Saturday's game at Washington was postponed due to snow.
Atlanta has not been strong against the number recently, failing to cover four of its last six games. Mike Woodson's team is 1-3 SU/ATS the previous four on the highway, including losses at San Antonio, Orlando, and Oklahoma City. The Hawks took care of the Grizzlies at Philips Arena, 110-97 back on December 16 as 9 ½-point favorites.
The Grizzlies went on a 19-7 SU stretch since the start of December, including 11 straight home victories. It's been a cold span for Memphis since, allowing over 100 points in each of its last six losses, while failing to cover each of its last three games.
Mavericks (31-19 SU, 30-20 ATS) at Nuggets (34-17 SU, 23-25-3 ATS)
Dallas comes into the Pepsi Center with no rest following Monday's contest at Golden State. Denver will try to come back to full strength, as both Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups are nursing ankle injuries. Billups sat out Saturday's loss at Utah, while Anthony has been sidelined each of the last eight games (5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS).
The Nuggets have two important home contests against Texas opponents prior to the All-Star Break, with the Mavs on Tuesday and the Spurs on Thursday. Denver is 8-1 SU and 3-5-1 ATS the last nine at home, while Anthony missed five of those games. In the eight games without 'Melo, the total hasn't swung one way or the other consistently, going 4-4 to the 'over.'
The Mavs are a dreadful 2-12 ATS their last 14 games, but each cover came on the road in wins at Boston and New York. Dallas picked up a surprising victory at Pepsi Center as 5 ½-point 'dogs, 104-96 on December 27. What was even more impressive about that road triumph was the Mavs playing with no rest, as will be the case on Tuesday.
The Nuggets are 6-4-1 ATS at home this season against teams playing the second of a back-to-back, while going 10-1 SU (Dallas is the lone blemish to Denver's perfect mark).
Thunder (29-21 SU, 31-19 ATS) at Blazers (30-23 SU, 28-24-1 ATS)
These two Northwest Division rivals meet up for the first time since November, as the Thunder looks for a sixth straight win. Oklahoma City continues a three-game road swing, coming off Saturday's 104-95 victory at Golden State. The Blazers are off a disappointing 99-82 home loss to the Kobe Bryant-less Lakers on Saturday.
Portland is 6-1 ATS and 5-2 SU off a loss since January 8, and 6-2 SU at home off a defeat since December 5. The Blazers have played the last ten games without Brandon Roy, covering six times, despite a 4-6 SU mark. Portland did knock off Oklahoma City at the Ford Center, 83-74 back on November 1, as three-point road 'chalk.'
The Thunder continues to impress, especially on the road. Oklahoma City is 14-3 ATS the last 17 on the highway, including a 4-2 ATS ledger as an away favorite this season. OKC's offense has heated up as well during this hot streak, topping the 100-point mark in each of those wins. The Sonics/Thunder has struggled at the Rose Garden, losing each of its last five road meetings.
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Atlanta (32-17, 31-18 ATS) at Memphis (26-24, 27-22-1 ATS)
The slumping Grizzlies look to get back on track when they welcome the Hawks to the FedEx Forum.
Atlanta hits the road after a pair of home wins last week over the Clippers (103-97 as a 9½-point favorite on Wednesday) and Bulls (91-81 as an eight-point chalk on Friday). Despite those two victories, the Hawks have split their last six contests (2-4 ATS), going 0-3 SU and ATS on the road during this stretch. One of the top-scoring teams in the NBA, Atlanta has been held to 103 points or fewer in eight straight games.
Memphis has followed up a 14-4 run by losing five of its last six SU and ATS, including the last three in a row. Ironically, the lone victory came against the defending champion Lakers last Monday (95-93 as a one-point underdog). Since then, the Grizzlies have fallen to the Cavaliers on the road (105-89), the Rockets at home (101-83) and the TWolves on the road (109-102). Like the Hawks, Memphis is struggling offensively, scoring 100 points or less in six of its last eight games (tallying exactly 102 points in the other two contests).
While the Hawks have one of the best home records in the league at 21-5, they’re a sub-.500 road team (12-13 SU, 13-10 ATS). On the flip side, Memphis is 18-7 in its building (15-9-1 ATS), including 17-5 in the last 22 (14-7-1 ATS).
Atlanta is looking to sweep this season series, having taken down the Grizzlies 110-97 as a 9½-point home favorite back on Dec. 16. The Hawks are 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings, with the one loss coming in last year’s trip to Memphis (98-90 Grizzlies victory as a 7½-point favorite). The chalk has won and covered in each of the last five meetings, and the SU winner is 8-0 ATS in the last eight.
The Hawks are 2-5 ATS in their past seven road games and 2-6 ATS in their last eight against the Western Conference, but they’ve covered in four of five following a layoff of three or more days. Memphis is 1-5 ATS in its last six overall, 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight after a SU defeat and 7-20-1 ATS in its last 28 on Tuesday, but from there the Grizzlies are on positive pointspread streaks of 20-9-1 at home, 21-7-1 against Eastern Conference opponents and 6-1-1 versus teams from the Southeast Division.
Atlanta is on “under” rolls of 9-1-1 after a SU win, 6-1-1 after a spread-cover, 5-1 on Tuesday and 3-1-1 against the Southwest Division. The Grizzlies have also stayed low in four of their last five at home, 18 of their last 26 following two days of rest and four in a row against the Eastern Conference. However, the over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MEMPHIS and UNDER
Dallas (32-19, 21-30 ATS) at Denver (34-17, 23-25-3 ATS)
The ailing Nuggets kick off a brief two-game homestand when they welcome the struggling Mavericks to the Pepsi Center for a Western Conference clash.
Dallas was in Golden State last night, where it rallied for a 127-117 victory as a four-point road underdog, outscoring the Warriors 37-19 in the fourth quarter. The Mavericks are still just 2-4 SU in their last six overall, and they snapped a six-game ATS losing skid Monday but are still 2-8 ATS in their last 10 (2-4 ATS on the road). Dallas’ offense is in fine form, tallying 106 points or more in seven of the last nine games, but the Mavs’ last six opponents have gone over the century mark, putting up 110.1 ppg.
Denver took the court at Utah on Saturday without All-Stars Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups (both dealing with injured ankles), and the result was predictable: a 116-106 loss, pushing as a 10-point road underdog. Since peeling off eight straight wins from Jan. 11-Jan. 27, the Nuggets have split their last six games (2-3-2 ATS). George Karl’s club is 10-17-3 ATS in its last 30 games, but on the bright side it hasn’t suffered consecutive SU defeats since Dec. 27-28, a stretch of 19 contests.
The Mavericks have a solid road mark at 17-10 (16-11 ATS), but despite Monday’s win in Golden State, it has lost three of its last five on the highway. Denver is 22-4 at the Pepsi Center, but only 13-12-1 ATS.
The Nuggets needed just five games to sweep Dallas out of the playoffs last spring, but the Mavericks are one of just four teams to score a victory in Denver this season, winning 104-96 on Dec. 27. Dallas covered as a 5½-point road underdog, ending a six-game ATS slump in this rivalry. Still, the Nuggets are 8-2 SU and ATS in the last 10 series meetings, and going back further they’ve cashed in 12 of the last 14 clashes overall and six of eight in Denver. Also, the SU winner has gotten the money in nine of the last 11 battles.
Dallas, which has the third-worst pointspread mark in the league, is 9-23 ATS in its last 32 games overall and is in further ATS funks of 2-4 on the highway, 0-5 both on Tuesday, against the Northwest Division and 2-5 when playing on consecutive nights. The Nuggets are on pointspread tears of 16-5 against the Southwest Division and 3-0-1 against winning teams, but they’re 5-12-3 ATS in their past 20 games against Western Conference foes.
The under is 5-1 in Denver’s last six against the Southwest Division. From there, though, the over is on upticks of 6-2 for Dallas overall, 4-1 for Dallas against teams from the Southwest Division, 5-2 for the Nuggets at home, 4-1 for the Nuggets on Tuesday and 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams dating to last year’s playoff series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and OVER
Oklahoma City (29-21, 31-19 ATS) at Portland (30-23, 28-24-1 ATS)
The red-hot Thunder go for a season-best sixth consecutive win when it concludes a three-game road trip with a stop at the Rose Garden to battle the Blazers.
Oklahoma City disposed of Golden State 104-95 as a 3½-point road chalk on Saturday, the team’s third straight spread-cover, all as a small favorite (3½ points or less). Kevin Durant continued his stellar play with 29 points, four assists and eight rebounds, and he’s now scored more than 25 points in 24 straight games.
Portland caught a break on Saturday when the Lakers came to town and Kobe Bryant sat out with an injured ankle, but the Blazers failed to take advantage, losing 99-82 as a 3 ½-point home underdog. All-Star point guard Brandon Roy (hamstring) missed his 10th straight game and has played just once (18 minutes) in the team’s last 13 contests. Without Roy, who will be sidelined at least through the All-Star break, Portland is 4-6 SU and 6-4 ATS in its last 10 games, including 2-3 SU and ATS at home. The SU winner is 23-4-1 ATS in games played at the Rose Garden year, including 11-0 ATS in the last 11.
These teams met way back in the first week of the season, with the Blazers wining 83-74 in Oklahoma City as a three-point road underdog on Nov. 1. Portland is on a 4-0 SU and ATS roll in this series after going 0-4 ATS in the previous four. Also, the home team is 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS in the last 10 meetings, with the Blazers favored in all 10. Oklahoma City has failed to cover in four of its last five visits to Portland.
The Thunder are riding a slew of positive pointspread streaks, including 4-1 overall, 19-7 on the road, 34-16-1 on Tuesday, 7-1 after a two days of rest and 8-0 against winning teams. Portland has cashed in nine of its last 13 division contests, seven of its last nine after a defeat and five of its last six following a non-cover.
The under has been the play in eight of the last nine Thunder-Blazers battles, and the under is 6-2 in Portland’s last eight Tuesday outings, 3-0-1 in its last four against winning teams, 7-1-1 in Oklahoma City’s last nine against winning teams and 4-0 in its last four against division rivals. On the flip side, the over is 8-0-1 in the Thunder’s last nine Tuesday games, while the Blazers carry “over” trends of 7-3 overall, 9-2 after a SU loss, 8-2 versus the Western Conference and 4-0 against the Northwest Division.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA CITY
NBA RoundUp For 2/9
By Dan Bebe
Nets @ Cleveland - This line is OFF. But it is going to make some noise when it comes out. Look out below! I would say that considering the Cavs have won 11 straight games and covered 7 of those 11, and the Nets are the worst team in the NBA (though they're 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 while going 1-6 SU), this line is going to be huge. And to be perfectly frank, I believe the value is squarely on the Nets, despite the Cavs recent ability, seemingly, to blow out everyone by the 6 minute mark of the 2nd quarter. The thing I like the most is that Cleveland has a game with the Magic after this contest with Jersey. If ever there were a time when the King might take the foot off the accelerator after a strong 1st quarter, this is that game. They know they don't have to give 100% to beat the Nets, especially in Cleveland, and I think Jersey is going to be getting so many points (especially without Devin Harris, likely hurt again), that the back door is going to be WIDE open on this game. The Nets are on some sort of double-revenge, though, as I've noted before, when you have a team that doesn't expect to ever beat the other, there's no such thing as "revenge." I do think, as our buddy Sac pointed out, that the lesser time is prone to retool their attack method, and the Nets have actually competed at a decent clip against the Cavs, losing games by 10 and 8, respectively, and covering in both. I lean Jersey on the side. On the total, both games so far this year have gone Under, with both teams shooting under 40% in the last game. I think this one ends right around 188-90, so let's see what line we get to work with.
Wizards @ Bobcats - This line is OFF. This is a bad spot for the Wizards. Allow me to explain. First, the Bobcats are in their second game home off a long road trip. They had the letdown game, and lost to the surging Hornets with a very slow, sluggish second half. They should be ready to bounce back in this one, so there's point number one for Charlotte. The second key note is that the Wizards are coming off a colossal upset win over the Magic. This is a bit of a letdown spot, playing a lesser team after the chunky emotional high the Wizards likely experienced after picking up the nice "W" in Florida. This year, off an upset win, the Magic are just 1-9 ATS the following game. Third key note, this is the Wizards' final game before the All Star break. They do not play on Wednesday or Thursday, so the guys have a full week off after this one. If that's not bad enough for the guys looking ahead to spending a week with family, how about the fact they have to play this final game before the break on the road. This, to me, is a lot like how marvelous playing home teams before the baseball All Star break works. Yes, the Bobcats play two more times before the break, so they're not going to be in look-ahead mode, and yes, that's another reason I like Charlotte. The one reason to back off of the Bobcats here is revenge. Charlotte murdered the Wizards back in late November, 92-76, a game that went way under the posted total. I fear the Wizards may be in a bad spot here, and despite the revenge factor, I just don't know if they can get it done. I lean Charlotte, and I lean Under, since a Charlotte tempo is a slow tempo.
Wolves @ Sixers - Philly by 6.5 with a total of 204.5. These two teams are both red-hot right now, leading into the Break. Both teams have won 4 straight games SU, and while Philly has covered 3 straight, Minny has covered 4 in a row. Interestingly, too, of the 8 combined straight up wins for these two clubs, 6 of those 8 games have gone over the posted total. So they're winning, and they're winning with offense. My take on the side is as such: the Sixers have won 3 of those 4 games on the road, where they continue to be one of the League's finest road ATS plays. Philly is 16-10 ATS on the road, but just 6-18 ATS at home. I just can't bring myself to trust Philly to cover 6.5 points at home against anyone, not even the Timberwolves. Especially not right now, while Minny is truly playing with outrageous confidence! I watched every second of the Wolves games against the Mavs and Grizzlies (we cashed both), and not only was Minnesota hitting their shots, aside from about 2-3 stretches in both games where they just stagnated offensively, they were running the TRIANGLE offense, and making it work. I have to admit, I was floored at how smooth they looked. I realize that winning solves a lot of problems, and confidence can do a ton for a team that doesn't play any defense, but the combination of Al Jefferson and Kevin Love inside, with the resurgent Ramon Sessions slashing into the lane and Ryan Gomes and Corey Brewer hitting 3's, this team is winning. The only angle that is a little concerning is the revenge - Minnesota beat Philly up in the Twin Cities 3 weeks ago. Still, I think that was a sign of the match-up problems the Wolves pose for Philly - I lean Minnesota on the side, and I just have to like the Over until one of these teams decides to play some defense. The tempo of both teams lately is so fast that it will take a 40% shooting night from both teams to keep the game under.
Bulls @ Pacers - Indiana by 1.5 with a total of 202. I like Indiana right now. That doesn't mean I want to bet them every game, but I like them because they're somewhat predictable - the handicappers greatest ally, especially for a low-tier team. We know the public is going to look at the Bulls first, because, well, Chicago bettors love their team, and the Bulls have name recognition: Derrick Rose, in particular. So, Chicago comes to town off a win over the tumbling Miami Heat. Did that tell us anything, though? Chicago is banged up, and equilibrating somewhat after that exceptional road trip through half of the Western Conference. They won 5 straight on that trip, lost 3 after it ended, then just won 1, but really, I wasn't too impressed with the win over the Heat, and I think Miami gets a bigger test here in Indiana than most people expect. The Pacers have suddenly become a very home-friendly club, winning each of their last 2 home games in blowout fashion, but got crushed on the road on either side of those 2 games. They're not playing any close ones, that's one thing we can say for certain. And unless Chicago holds a team meeting where Del Negro calls his boys out (and I don't see that happening the week before the All Star break), I think the Pacers should win this one going away. It's also a revenge spot for Indiana, for what it's worth; and Chicago hosts Orlando tomorrow, so a potential look-ahead spot for the Bulls. On the total, I think it's interesting that the first meeting had a posted mark of 193, went over (199), and this one opened 3 points higher. That, to me, is a relatively beefy indicator that oddsmakers think the Pacers will control the tempo - I lean Over, even though Chicago has been playing some clunkers lately. Stronger lean on the side, though.
Rockets @ Heat - This line is OFF. Other than the revenge angle, this game, to me, is a handicapper's nightmare. These are two of the most inconsistent teams in the entire NBA, and now they get to play each other! Miami did beat up on Houston down in Texas back on January 15th (115-106), so the Rockets will likely want to get a little revenge here, and I believe they couldn't find the Heat at a better time. Miami has suffered through a season-high 5-game losing streak, and they're just 1-4 ATS during that stretch, covering as an underdog in Boston. Otherwise, and really, even in that game, it has been VERY ugly. Miami has not been scoring, posting totals in the 80's in 3 of those 5 games, and 91 points in the 4th. In fact, they broke 100 against Boston, who, for whatever reason chose not to play defense for one day, but if you eliminate that game in Beantown, Miami is averaging just 85.5 points in the other 4 games. They haven't been rebounding or defending either, allowing AT LEAST 95 points in every game in this streak, including 102 to Cleveland and 107 to Boston. I just cannot stress enough how terribly ugly it has been. Have they bottomed out? I'm not sure, but I don't think there has been an obvious "rock bottom", at least not yet. Miami plays in Atlanta tomorrow, so even if this game is close, that could be the embarrassment they need to wake up, just in time for an All Star break. Houston, interestingly, looked like they were snapping out of a funk of their own with a home blowout over the Warriors and a road blowout over the Grizz, but then came back home and got stomped by the Sixers. I want to chalk that loss up to playing on zero rest (Rockets are 4-9 ATS on back-to-backs), and say that with 2 days of rest going into this one, they should be able to hang tough. I lean to Houston in this battle of tiring middling clubs. I also lean to the Under, as I can't play a Miami-over until they show they can break 90 consistently.
Kings @ Knicks - New York by 5 with a total of 212. Can the Kings be trusted right now? I don't believe so. Sure, they may be a team with some "value", but if they're just not playing well, then it almost doesn't matter how many points they're getting on a "fair line", since they're getting blasted by at least 3-5 over the spread every single night, it seems. Maybe that's a bit of an exaggeration, seeing as how they did cover 2 in a row in Denver and at home to the Spurs, but they've gone back to losing big since those ATS wins. This is a team that, right now, is losing almost every single game straight up. So, if you're looking at taking Sactown, you have to be considering the idea that they can lose by less than the spread. And in a game where the line is just 5, it's hard for me to play a team that I just don't feel can win the game outright. The Kings, and prepare yourself for a mind-bending stat, are 2-18 in their last 20 games. That is Nets territory. And the most crushing part is that they were actually beating the Raptors soundly entering the 4th quarter on Sunday before cracking off another of their nearly-patented 4th quarter meltdowns, and losing by 11. Can they bounce back? Maybe. But I'm not going to be the lunatic that tries to play a carnival game with the Kings, and pick the one game out of every 10 that they win outright. This one is Knicks or nothing. So, is it Knicks or nothing, you're asking? The Knicks haven't been terribly impressive either, though, after falling behind by 20 early to the Cavs, they rallied to cover that one. This is their final game before the All Star break, and I just wonder if they're going to mail this one in. I'm leaning towards a Pass on the side, and with neither team really focused, I think the Over might have some legs.
Hawks @ Grizzlies - This line is OFF. This strikes me as the game where the Grizzlies wake back up. I'm not sure if it's the level of competition that is somewhat more inspiring, but I just have a gut feeling Memphis breaks out of their mini-slump to put together a strong game here. It might have a little something to do with the Hawks recent and long-term history, too. Atlanta beat Memphis by 13 back on December 16th, in Atlanta, while wildly outplaying the Grizz. Memphis had 20 turnovers in that game, and when all was said and done took 17 fewer shots than Atlanta! You're rarely going to win like that, unless you're taking 30 more free throws than your opponent, which Memphis most certainly did not. I don't think Atlanta is going to pick on Memphis again. The Grizz have come so far, and they're sitting right on the cusp of a playoff berth, and they definitely realize how important every game is, especially against the teams that they want to stack up against, the barometer effect, so to speak. Atlanta has also been pretty terrible on the road lately, and very, very strong at home. It's a nice blend for bettors, since the public is going to see Atlanta winning (and covering) at home, then forget that Atlanta has lost their last 3 on the road - those games were against tough teams (Spurs, Magic, Thunder), but they got beat pretty soundly in all 3. It's a bit of a dangerous call, since this is Memphis's final game before the All Star break, but they strike me as the type of young team that wants to go into the layoff with positive momentum, and Atlanta has a home date with the rival Heat tomorrow, too. I lean Memphis on the side, and I believe this total will be slightly inflated because of the slight misconception that these teams never play defense. That's not to say I lean Under, but I do think there may be 1-2 points of value beneath the line.
Pistons @ Bucks - Milwaukee by 8 with a total of 189.5. Yikes, how things have changed this year. Who would have thought, really, in 2005, that 5 years later the mighty Pistons would be getting 8 points in Milwaukee? A devastating time for the city of Detroit, and its fans, with the Lions still awful, the Tigers melting down, and so forth. At least they've got their Wings. Anyway, back to the game at hand -- I think the reason this line strikes us as so high is because it probably is a tad high. The Bucks are starting to get some credit, as well they should. Milwaukee is a ridiculous 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games, so it shouldn't surprise anyone that they're suddenly laying big points at home, where they're exceptionally tough. The Bucks are coming off a 12-point win over the Pacers as a 7-point home favorite, so they're not at all opposed to winning by double digits, but with both teams having won the previous home meeting, and the Pistons, supposedly, getting better every game, this is not a good time to fade Detroit. The Pistons are just finally getting all their injured pieces back, and as they start to come together as a team, chemistry-wise, they should be able to rattle off a few covers in a row. It's just a bit of a mystery when it's going to happen. So, in this game, do you back the white-hot Milwaukee team and go with the "ride the wave" approach, or back the Pistons, assuming they're a team on the upswing and getting 1-2 points of value? Or neither. I'm leaning towards a pass right now, though strong line movement might sway me. This total looks awfully low, too, since I think Milwaukee is going to try to play a little faster in this one and get Detroit out of their comfort zone. I lean Over, but barely.
Mavericks @ Nuggets - This line is OFF. This is a Denver play or nothing at all. I love that the Nuggets are coming home off a loss in Utah, since it should create just enough value to make this game playable. I also love that the Mavs are coming into the altitude on a back-to-back, a situation where they WON earlier this year, but this time are coming from the West coast, a notoriously difficult time zone issue that puts them in their Denver hotel near 4am local time, and gives them less than half a day to get a night of rest, try to gameplan for the Nuggets, warm up, deal with the thin air, and then try to sustain a high level of basketball for 48 minutes. Dallas really had to play HARD in Golden State, trailing most of the night before ratcheting up their game in the 4th and take advantage of the vastly overmatched Warriors, who definitely appear to be tiring heading into the All Star break. I must say, though, I like that the Mavs had to play their starters the entire game, and work to come back and hold off Golden State. It didn't help that Monta Ellis squashed his knee on a layup try and couldn't return, but it seems like the Mavs would have won this one either way. Not sure about a cover, but hey, injuries happen, and they happen even more when you're a Warrior. The Nuggets are devastatingly good at home, as they make a push to supplant the Lakers for the best record in the West. Dallas is certainly a better ATS bet on the road than at home, but even against the Warriors their defense left something to be desired, only finally pulling ahead when they were simply able to outgun Golden State with a deeper bench and healthier players. The Nuggets are 22-4 at home SU, and while they should be pretty sizable favorites here (whether or not Billups and Melo play), and I lean to Denver. I also don't see the Nuggets shooting 38% again against the Mavs, and I like the Over.
Thunder @ Blazers - Thunder by 1 with a total of 191. Thunder on revenge? You have to give them a look. I do wish the Blazers were coming off a win against the Lakers, since that would likely have made this line a Pick, but it is what it is, and we'll work with it. Quietly, or maybe not-so-quietly depending on where you live, the Thunder have run out to a beastly 31-19 ATS mark on the season, 18-7 ATS on the road! This team is generally not intimidated by other teams' courts, and that is just huge if they want to become a team to be reckoned with year in and year out. And with Brandon Roy out through the All Star break, we know exactly who we're going to be dealing with in this one. Unfortunately, there isn't much value in the line for the Thunder, coming off 5 straight wins (4-1 ATS), but as we noted above in previous write-ups, sometimes you have to stare the value right in the face and give it the finger. If the Blazers aren't going to show up (they play in Phoenix tomorrow), then the Thunder can destroy them. I'm inclined to believe this game comes down to the wire, because even the games the Thunder lose tend to be within one possession. In fact, going through the games, of the 7 games the Thunder have lost in 2010 (they're 11-7 straight up this year), 3 of those 7 games have been 1-point losses, and 1 game was decided by a bucket. My concern here is that the Thunder will be taking a look ahead to the All Star break, and playing their final game before said Break on the road is not often a good situational spot. I like the revenge, and I like how hard this team plays, but if the team's collective head isn't in the game, this might not go so well. It's a toss-up, and while I do lean Thunder, this one has a strong chance of being a Pass. On the total, I like the Over -- we know the Thunder can score, and the Blazers are a faster team without Roy around. Plus, if the Thunder aren't completely focused, they will suffer in transition defense, and I think we'll see at least a handful of easy buckets.
Jazz @ Clippers - Jazz by 4.5 with a total of 200.5. Like taking candy from a baby, right? Not so fast. The Jazz have absolutely KILLED the Clippers over the last few years, going 7-1 ATS against LAC in the last 8 meetings, spread out over 3 years of basketball. They beat LAC by 13 earlier this season (as in, the 3rd day of the season) in a high-scoring tilt in Utah. They have won 8 straight games, going 6-1-1 ATS in that stretch (or 7-1 if you got this recent Nuggets game at the early line of -8 like we did), and haven't won any of those games in the win streak by fewer than 7 points! Why, guys, is this line only 4.5? Boozer and Williams are both playing for the Jazz, so they're at full strength. The Clippers are healthy, too, but coming off a hideous loss to the Spurs back on Saturday, getting blown out on their home floor by 17. That was the rather standard "first game home" letdown for the Clips, and this is the second game back, where most teams play a much better game. I expect a strong effort from the Clippers, who, as many have forgotten, were actually killing it at home before they had to voyage East on an 8-game road trip. Prior to this trademark letdown loss to the Spurs, the Clippers had actually covered 8 straight home games. And on top of that, the Jazz HOST the Lakers tomorrow in a big game in Utah. Utah is in a look-ahead spot, the Clippers are on revenge and in a bounceback spot in their second game back home, and after the home game with the Lakers, the Jazz head to the All Star break. This is one of those overnight road trips where some guys might just mail it in. I think Utah is a sucker play in this one, and I lean to the Clippers. In terms of the total, Utah has broken 100 in 10 straight games, but I think their focus might be lax on defense, and I just have to look at the Over, since I think the Clippers play them strong and make some shots.
Cookin at Home
By SportsPic
Suddenly streaking Milwaukee Bucks have an opportunity to lift themselves into a playoff position Tuesday when they host division rival Detroit Pistons. Off a 12 point victory over Pacers the Bucks have won five of it's past six games (5-1 ATS) and enter having won seven consecutive at the Bradley Center cashing six tickets in the process (6-1 ATS). Meanwhile, miss-firing Pistons off a rare win over Nets have won just six of it's last twenty-six (6-19-1 ATS) including a horrendous 2-10 (3-9 ATS) last twelve on the highway. Backing Milwaukee here has merit, Bucks are a profitable 10-1 against-the-oddsmaker the last eleven on the hardwood, 13-3 against-the-number following a 10 point victory, 4-1 (3-2 ATS) this season hosting a division foe. On the other hand, Pistons enter 1-7-1 ATS away vs. a team with a winning home record, 2-10 (3-8-1 ATS) last twelve on the road vs Central Division rivals. If that were no enough, consider Pistons have mustered just 92.1 PPG away from the Palace this season, Bucks are 25-8 (23-10 ATS) at home vs offensively challenged opponents (<100 PPG).
Trend Report - Tuesday
By Ed Meyer
Wizards at Bobcats – The Bobcats are 6-0 ATS (7.7 ppg) since December 19, 2005 at home with at least one day of rest after a home loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. The Bobcats are 0-6 ATS (-8.0 ppg) since February 02, 2009 with two or more days of rest after a loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.
Pistons at Bucks – The Pistons are 0-8 ATS (-6.2 ppg) since April 23, 2007 after a home win in which more than 75% of their baskets were assisted. The League is 7-0 ATS (9.3 ppg) since January 17, 2009 on the road with two or more days of rest after a home win in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Bucks are 0-8-1 ATS (-7.4 ppg) since December 17, 2005 when seeking revenge for a loss in which they were out-rebounded by at least fifteen rebounds.
Nets at Cavaliers – The Cavaliers are 10-0-1 ATS (5.9 ppg) since April 10, 2009 and when facing a team they beat in their previous two match-ups of the season. The Cavaliers are 8-0 ATS (6.4 ppg) since December 05, 1997 after a game in which they committed at least 10 fewer fouls than their season-to-date average. The Cavaliers are 8-0 ATS (7.7 ppg) since March 13, 2005 at home off a home win in which they never trailed. The Cavaliers are 0-8 ATS (-6.6 ppg) since February 07, 2008 after a win in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.
Jazz at Clippers – The Jazz are 0-5 ATS (-14.7 ppg) since April 12, 2001 on the road with two or more days of rest after a double digit win in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line. The Clippers are 0-5 ATS (-8.7 ppg) since February 16, 1998 with two or more days of rest after a home loss in which they committed at least twenty turnovers.
Hawks at Grizzlies – The Hawks are 9-0-1 ATS (6.0 ppg) since February 25, 2009 when facing a team they beat in their previous same-season match-up and they have a revenge game next. The Grizzlies are 0-7 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since February 20, 2007 with two or more days of rest after a loss in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Grizzlies are 7-0 ATS (9.4 ppg) since December 30, 1995 at home with at least one day of rest off a road loss in which they led at the end of each of the first three quarters. The Grizzlies are 0-6 ATS (-6.7 ppg) since January 13, 2009 at home when they have lost their last three games SU and ATS.
Rockets at Heat – The Rockets are 8-0 ATS (5.8 ppg) since December 10, 1999 after a loss against the Seventysixers. The Heat are 6-0 ATS (11.2 ppg) since January 23, 2004 at home with two or more days of rest after a loss in which they made more baskets than their opponent.
Kings at Knicks – The Kings are 0-8 ATS (-7.8 ppg) since January 15, 2007 when facing a non-conference team they beat as a favorite by double digits in their first match-up of the season. The Knicks are 0-9 ATS (-14.0 ppg) since February 20, 1996 as a home favorite with two or more days of rest after a loss in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line.
Mavericks at Nuggets – The League is 7-0 ATS (9.3 ppg) since December 30, 2007 as a dog with no rest off a win as an away favorite in which they trailed at the end of each of the first three quarters. The Nuggets are 8-0 ATS (7.0 ppg) since February 05, 2007 with at least one day of rest after a loss in which they committed at least twenty turnovers.
Bulls at Pacers – The Pacers are 0-9-1 ATS (-6.3 ppg) since November 09, 1996 at home with two or more days of rest after a double digit loss in which they had more turnovers than assists. The Pacers are 0-6 ATS (-7.5 ppg) since December 13, 2008 after a road loss in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was less than four.
Timberwolves at 76ers – The Timberwolves are 0-8-1 ATS (-5.6 ppg) since December 22, 2006 after a game at home in which they had at least five fewer turnovers than their season-to-date average. The Timberwolves are 8-0 ATS (9.6 ppg) since December 11, 2001 with two or more days of rest after a win in which they shot at least 55% from the field.
Thunder at Trailblazers – The Thunder are 6-0 ATS (14.6 ppg) since March 31, 2009 when they are playing in at least their third straight road game.