Tuesday's Best NBA Bet
New York Knicks at Orlando Magic (-7, 213)
The Knicks love when everyone writes them off against quality opponents. And why shouldn’t they? Even rebuilt, the team just losst to the lowly Cleveland Cavaliers. But when the chips are down against a contender, there aren’t many teams better than New York.
The team from Manhattan is a sparkling 6-2-1 ATS as an underdog of seven points or more this season. Most recently, the Knicks stunned the basketball world with a 91-86 win over the Heat. Miami entered the game as a 10-point favorite.
"The bigger the game, the bigger the stage, the bigger they play," Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni said.
Orlando, however, often shrinks from the spotlight.
The Magic are just 14-12 ATS this season as favorites of seven or more points and often fail to focus against lesser teams. Orlando is coming off consecutive straight up and against the spread wins versus Charlotte and Oklahoma City, but lost to the Kings in Florida last week by six.
"We've been talking for a long time -- all we seem to do is talk," Magic center Dwight Howard said. "You guys know what the difference is. You watch the games. If guys don't want to play, they need to sit down. We can't just have guys or anybody out there not playing hard.
"We're professional athletes. This is what we do for a living. If you can't go out there and go hard for two hours, then you shouldn't be playing."
Pick: Knicks
Magic and Knicks top NBA betting marquee
By: Barry Daniels
Bettors are learning there will be an adjustment period in games involving the new-look New York Knicks. The Orlando Magic will get their first peek at the retooled Knicks when the two second-place squads meet at 4:00 p.m. (PT) in Orlando.
The Knicks are 2-1 straight up and 1-2 against the spread since the big trade that brought Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups over from the Denver Nuggets. But that’s just half the story.
New York showed it needed time to fit those new pieces into the lineup during Friday’s embarrassing 115-109 loss to the lowly Cleveland Cavaliers as eight-point road favorites.
Two days later on national television, bettors learned the Knicks would be a tough team to handicap when the New Yorkers put the defensive clamps on the Southeast Division-leading Miami Heat during a 91-86 victory.
The Knicks easily covered as hefty 10-point road underdogs, which raised their ledger away from Madison Square Garden to 14-15 SU and a sizzling 20-8-1 ATS.
The combined 177 points easily ducked below the 217-point closing total, leaving the ‘under’ 9-3 in the Knicks’ last 12 road endeavors and 29-27-1 overall.
New York overcame a 15-point first-half deficit and outscored Miami 13-2 in the final 2:52 of the fourth quarter to clinch the victory.
The finest moment occurred in the last 12.7 seconds when the Knicks were leading by one point and LeBron James had the ball in his hands. Anthony, who defended James over the last seven minutes, stayed with him as James drove to his left. James was in position for a layup, but Amare Stoudemire left his man and swatted away the potential go-ahead shot.
Anthony finished with 29 points and added nine rebounds. Stoudemire contributed 16 points and 10 rebounds, while Billups chipped in with 16 points and three important baskets from beyond the arc late in the game.
Orlando has won and covered four of its last five games, including Sunday’s 100-86 victory against the Charlotte Bobcats as 11-point home favorites. The victory raised Orlando’s home record to 23-9 SU and 17-15 ATS. The Magic are outscoring the opposition at home by an average of 10 points per game (101-91).
The combined 186 points dipped below the 195-point closing total, enabling the ‘under’ to improve to 9-1 in Orlando’s last 10 efforts, 19-12-1 in their first 32 home dates and 33-25-2 overall.
The Magic have held nine of their last 10 opponents under 99 points to solidify a defense that ranks fifth in the league by allowing an average of 94 points per game. Orlando is holding the opposition to just 43.9 percent from the field, which ranks fourth.
Dwight Howard completed his dominant month of February by scoring 20 points and gathering 10 rebounds in just under 33 minutes.
But the spark Sunday night came from point guard Jameer Nelson and backup point guard Gilbert Arenas. Nelson scored eight of his 13 points and dished out four of his seven assists in the first quarter.
Arenas snapped out of a horrid shooting slump by scoring 16 points, his highest total since Dec. 28. He entered the night on a 0-for-18 skid from beyond the arc, but he wound making four of his six 3-point tries against Charlotte.
Orlando is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 home matchups against the Knicks. That includes a 112-103 victory as a 7½-point home favorite on Dec. 30 in the lone meeting between the clubs this season. The combined 215 points barely skipped above the 213½-point closing total, enabling the ‘over’ to cash in the last four series meetings.
After completing a seven-game homestand with Tuesday’s contest against New York, the Magic will make the short trip to Miami for a Thursday encounter against the Heat. New York will return to Madison Square Garden for a Wednesday meeting against the New Orleans Hornets.
NBA Previews 3/1
by Dan Bebe
New York Knicks @ Orlando Magic (-7) with a total 213
These teams last met on December 30th, and Orlando won that game by 9 as a 7.5-point favorite. For our purposes, we can probably just toss that game out the window. Orlando scored 113 points in a high-scoring affair, but since then, things have had a bit of a shake-up, especially in New York. The Knicks, meanwhile, are coming off a marquee win over the Heat, on the road, on Sunday afternoon ESPN. Everyone that was already buying into the Knicks hype machine just got a shot of ephedrine right into the left ventricle, which also means money is headed their way. Now, New York could conceivably put together another hard-fought win, capped by a late Billups three, but something tells me that Miami's weak shooting and rebounding that comes almost exclusively from the small forward was a better matchup for the Knicks than the Magic. Since Dwight Howard called out his teammates, Orlando has crushed the Thunder and Bobcats, playing stifling defense and shooting over 50%. The Knicks can't guard Howard, and while Melo and Amar'e will "get theirs" I just don't see the Knicks somewhat unimpressive, disjointed offense being enough to slow down a team that can get a ton of easy buckets when they're right. It's a lot to cover, but I lean to the MAGIC and the UNDER.
New Orleans Hornets @ Toronto Raptors with a total of N/A
Toronto is so horrible...I just don't have words. Fact is, it's not easy to get blown out repeatedly at home - on the road is one thing, but at home that crowd is supposed to propel you to a few more made buckets and maybe a defensive stop or a rebound. For Toronto, not so much, and now Andrea Bargnani is dealing with another injury. I know, I know, they beat the Bulls, but that was a fluke. An expression gets tossed around a lot regarding situations like that one: "even a blind squirrel finds a nut." Sometimes folks stretch the meaning of that expression, but that was truly the case with the Raps. Toronto doesn't rebound well, they don't get ANY easy buckets, and thanks to extremely soft players at 3 of the 5 starting spots, and an equally soft bench, they can't stop anyone. For New Orleans, they're actually playing a little better the last 3 games. They did suffer a loss to the Rockets in their last tilt, but Houston was on double home revenge, and New Orleans is trying to work Okafor back from injury and add Carl Landry into the rotation. I think the Hornets are poised to make a tiny push with Landry leading the bench. They traded away the electricity of Marcus Thornton, but in return they got a reliable scorer and rebounder, and that's invaluable to one of the weaker benches. This game comes down to one note for me, though - Toronto is so bad right now that almost no spread is enough. Lean to the HORNETS, who I do NOT think look ahead to Knicks, and to the UNDER.
Dallas Mavericks (-1) @ Philadelphia 76ers with a total of 201
This game is a disaster, from a side-betting standpoint. The Mavericks went 11-1 SU in February, and 9-3 ATS, so they're cruising. The Sixers went just 7-5 ATS in February, but continue to put money in pockets, and as I've written a hundred times before, when two ATS champs go head to head, why bother? I'll give a few reasons, just for posterity, but you already all know where I'm headed. These teams haven't played since the second week of the season, a game Dallas won at home, pushing the spread. Doesn't matter. Dallas hosts Indiana in its next game, and Philly hosts Minnesota in its next game - completely innocuous opponents. Neither team is playing in a fatigue spot, and neither is dealing with large roster turnover. This game is just what it looks like - a wildly deep Dallas team that takes care of business on the road against a Philadelphia team that seems to get stronger by the month. I'm breaking out the gun for this one, putting it to my head, and force-leaning DALLAS, but barely, and both teams are hot from the field, so small lean to the OVER.
Golden State Warriors @ Indiana Pacers (-6) with a total of 215
I'd like to launch into the strong angles at play in this game, but there aren't a great deal here, either. Golden State is playing its second game of a reasonably long road trip, and have lost 3 straight. Indiana is wrapping up a 4-game homestand, which very subtly should cause them to play a little harder and try to take some momentum on the road, but they've lost 2 in a row, as well. Someone has to win, though. What about revenge, you ask? Well, Indiana lost by 2 in Golden State in mid-January as a 5-point underdog. And now, with both teams rested, Indiana is laying 6. That's a pretty steep swing, considering both teams had their stars for that first meeting, and both do again, here. So are oddsmakers trying to tell us that the additional 5 points of line adjustment is because the Pacers had one hot stretch after a coaching change? I feel like I'm about to suggest you all run with scissors near a gate-less pool area, but sometimes you look at a game, size up what angles the teams present, and get a sensation in the gut. And, besides grumbling for dinner, my gut is telling me the Pacers win this game but fail to cover, just as Golden State did at home 45(ish) days ago. So, for so many reasons, and simultaneously for almost none, lean to the WARRIORS (not ML, though, that's for darn sure), and the OVER.
Los Angeles Lakers (-9.5) @ Minnesota Timberwolves with a total 205
Those damn streaky Lakers have rattled off 4 straight wins and covers since the All Star Break, and while I'd love to get behind a Wolves team that got called out by its coach (and won its next game, a classic response), I'm not sure I can fade the Lakers when they're rolling. And hell, after trying unsuccessfully to do so on Sunday, the Lakers showed that they can shut down explosive offensive teams. Here's the bottom line - neither team is in a scheduling "spot," the Lakers have won both games this season, but the Wolves did cover 1 of the 2, which is probably a triumph for them, and those games came back in November. The way I see it, if Minnesota gets out to a strong start, it might not be a terrible idea to explore a second half play on either the Lakers or the Under, which would be the result of the Lakers ramping up defensively. Microscopic lean to the WOLVES, though I'd actually advice a pass on the side, and slight lean to the UNDER, given the Lakers recent re-commitment to defense.
San Antonio Spurs (-1) @ Memphis Grizzlies with a total 195
This game is the second half of a home-and-home between these two teams, but of course, our lines are getting all discombobulated by the injury to Tony Parker. The Spurs were a 8.5-point home favorite, so we would have expected this game to appear somewhere between 1 and 2.5, varying based on revenge, but now it's tough to know exactly how much Tony Parker was worth. Was this line going to open at Spurs by 3, and dropped 2 points for Tony, or was it for revenge, and now, is the first move to Memphis because of Parker, or was THAT the revenge? However you shake it out, I'm trying to find a way to get on the Grizzlies. On top of the immediate revenge angle, the Grizzlies also dropped a game in San Antonio back in December, so Memphis is on double revenge, and Shane Battier is slowly figuring out all the little things Memphis is going to need him to do. For the Spurs, they don't lose a ton by bringing George Hill into the starting lineup, though Parker's ability to get to the bucket has been key in the Spurs up-tempo offense this year. I'm beating around the bush needlessly: lean to MEMPHIS and the OVER.
Detroit Pistons @ Milwaukee Bucks with a total of N/A
I loathe handicapping Pistons games, lately, since we rarely know who's playing, and thanks to being within the Detroit radio area, I get to listen to the daily banter on the team. It sounds like, and this was sort of how I felt about the club anyway, Rip Hamilton is trying to work things out with Coach Kuester enough to get on the court, Tracy McGrady may or may not be truly hurt, Austin Daye gets playing time every so often, the fans go to games to see the opponents (when they're at home), and the team shows up about once every 4 or 5 games. In any case, Detroit has actually beaten the Bucks twice this year, once at each venue, so I'm inclined to think that, despite Milwaukee being the team asked to cover a spread (and they will be when the number comes out), and despite Andrew Bogut dealing with side pain, Milwaukee should want this game. Nobody likes to lose to the same team over and over, especially not one of the worst teams in the League and one that can't keep its problems behind closed doors. The Bucks are only 4 games out of the Playoff picture, and they know they need to do something quick if they have any shot. Lean to the BUCKS unless the number is outrageous, and the UNDER.
Houston Rockets @ Portland Trailblazers with a total of N/A
What happened to the Blazers in that game with Atlanta? I still don't know. We didn't have any sort of play on the game, and Atlanta has certainly "woken up" after the trade deadline, but Portland just dozed its way through 3 quarters before trying, ultimately in vain, to come back in the 4th. Maybe some of it can be traced to fatigue, as Portland's overtime loss to the Lakers seems to have taken a slight toll, but Houston doesn't play much defense, and Portland would seem to match up well with the Rockets because of strength. That fact has played itself out in the two meetings that have occurred already this season. Of course, our normal course of action is to approach a game like this from the revenge side, and maybe that's where we should mosey. The Rockets are red hot, winners of 4 in a row (5, if you count Kevin Martin winning Player of the Week honors) and though the competition has been 75% fetid, the team has clearly built some confidence. Portland is in a mini-ATS slump, and my only concern is that the line might reflect that, and the value we could have nabbed with Houston might be diminished by Portland's 3-game ATS skid. We shall see. Without knowing the line, and without knowing the health of LaMarcus Aldridge, I would offer an early lean to the ROCKETS and a smaller lean to the OVER.