Tuesday's Tip Sheet
By Josh Jacobs
It’s that time again. During a period of relative tranquility, college basketball takes center stage this month as March Madness is that much closer to captivating the public for yet another year.
Until the tourney begins, hogging national television and newspaper headlines, let’s give the NBA the attention it deserves. Tuesday’s theme hasn’t changed much from the last few weeks. With most teams logging in 60-plus games into their schedule it’s certainly crunch time for those tangled in a certain seeded position or looking to break through the bubble. Six games are on the card as a matchup between Dallas and Phoenix once again takes the cake.
New York at Milwaukee – 8:00 p.m. EST
It’s been tough going for coach Mike D'Antoni and his New York Knickerbockers (25-37 straight up, 37-27-1 against the spread) in the last few games. The team that wears orange and blue has dropped five of the last six games by an average margin of minus-4.2 PPG while failing to cover five of the last eight games (one of those contests resulted in a push). If there’s an angle to jump all over it’s been the D’Antoni authorized 15-3 record on the ‘over’ in the last 18. The hard, up and down offensive game coupled with a non-existent defense has allowed total scores to hit 225.4 PPG during the same ‘over’ stretch. And while the Knicks have match up against teams playing over .500 very tightly (covering 18 of 28 games), a 15-16 ATS problem against clubs with a losing record has been disappointing for gamblers taking that risk. Even though New York won’t face a division foe on Tuesday, backers must be warned about the 4-7-1 ATS record in that spot for future wagering.
Looking from the outside in, Milwaukee (30-36 SU, 35-29-2 ATS) is only a game and a half out of the last playoff spot in the East. However, a 3-7 slide in the last 10 characterized by shooting fewer than 40 percent three times in the last six games is a problem. The Bucks have failed to cover four straight games and are 8-13 ATS in the last 21. But there’s always the head-to-head category of stats to glance over. Milwaukee has been able to win the last three games against the Knicks by outscoring them 101-84.7 PPG. More importantly, the Bucks covered all three of those games as indicated by the large gap in point margins. Milwaukee snapped a three-game losing streak on Saturday when it passed by Golden State, 127-120. However the eight-point favorite tag applied to them at closing time was on the side of the book.
Dallas at Phoenix – 10:00 p.m. EST
It just seems that whenever Dallas (38-25 SU, 30-33 ATS) looks to be assembling an extended winning streak out comes an opponent to crush the momentum (or more like Dallas' own effort to crush the momentum). The latest example was a loss against Oklahoma City, 96-87 last Monday which put an end to a three-game winning streak against Milwaukee, Oklahoma City (first of two games during March) and Toronto. On top of being unable to sustain a winning roll is a 16-17 ATS record this season versus teams playing with a losing record. Tuesday’s contest against Phoenix (34-29 SU, 24-36-2 ATS) will be the first of a four-game road trip. The Mavericks are 0-5 SU and ATS in the last five games played away from home (four of those teams are above .500). Total speaking, Dallas is 5-2 on the ‘over’ in the last seven. In those five ‘over’ games, the Mavs were responsible for giving up 101.4 PPG (not far off from the 99.5 PPG sacrificed over the course of the season).
The Suns will enter this tussle with a 19-11 SU home record but have driven backers to the garbage dump, proven by a 12-17-1 ATS stint this season. Phoenix is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 versus the Southwest and will be looking to put a four-game losing streak behind itself. The recent slip and slide has seen the Suns continuing its defensive woes by allowing 116.3 PPG. The most recent defensive self destruction came on Mar. 4 when Phoenix coughed up 135 points against a Miami team who’s been good for 97.5 PPG this season. For those looking for some trends away from the obvious then a 12-15-1 ATS (44.4%) record when coming off a SU loss and a 16-19-1 ATS (45.7%) problem when coming off an ATS loss should be trends to consider. And with just one-day of rest under its belt, Phoenix has struggled mightily, accumulating a 13-20-1 ATS (39.4%) letdown. The Suns are coming off a 103-98 loss in San Antonio on Sunday, putting an end to a brutal, four-game road trip.
Cleveland at L.A. Clippers – 10:30 p.m. EST
The final game covered in this tip sheet will have Cleveland (49-13 SU, 41-21 ATS) attempting to field its sixth straight win against the Clippers (15-48 SU, 25-38 ATS) in head-to-head action. After a disappointing loss in Boston, 105-94, (losing ATS as 1 ½-point ‘dogs), the Cavaliers took a bounce back win against Miami on Saturday (99-89) as nine-point favorites. Cleveland is 7-3 SU and 5-5 ATS in its last 10 games on the road and has gone a bank busting, 20-10 ATS versus teams with a losing record. However, an 8-6 ATS record has been crafted versus these same, under .500 teams on the road. A near perfect 9-1 ATS run after a two-day break has reflected on a 6-4 ATS performance. The Cavs last met up against L.A. on Jan. 30, winning 112-95 and covering the hefty, 15-point spread.
The Clippers, well are the Clippers. This is a team that’s in the midst of a five-game losing streak, have dropped 15 of the last 20 games and have racked up 94.6 PPG on offense in the last eight. There are plenty of angles to pick apart here in an attempt to run as fast as you can in the other direction if you’re an L.A. backer. Some positives however include a 5-3 ATS record off of two days rest and a 6-1-1 ATS performance against the Central division this season. But the fun doesn’t last long as increasing ATS trends in favor of a fade play are just loaded in-between the lines. A 19-28 (40.4%) ATS record after a SU loss (106-105 loss against Indiana on Saturday) and a 12-16 ATS report as the home underdog are just introductions to these pitiful trends.
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NBA Today
SCOREBOARD
Tuesday, March 10
Utah at Indiana (7 p.m. EDT). The Jazz have won 11 straight, the longest current streak in the league, to surge to the top of the Northwest Division.
STARS
Monday
— Dwyane Wade, Heat, scored 48 points, including a running 3-pointer as time expired to lift Miami to a wild 130-127 double-overtime win over Chicago.
— Joe Johnson, Hawks, scored 30 points and Atlanta beat New Orleans 89-79, ending the Hornets’ season-best seven-game winning streak.
— Richard Hamilton, Pistons, led Detroit with 29 points and a career-high 14 assists in a 98-94 win over Orlando.
— Brandon Roy, Trail Blazers, scored 27 points as Portland beat the Los Angeles Lakers 111-94 for their 12th straight win at the Rose Garden.
— Caron Butler, Timberwolves, had 27 points, 10 rebounds and six assists to lead Minnesota to a 110-99 victory over Washington.
M-V-3!
Miami’s Dwyane Wade scored 48 points, including a running 3-pointer as time expired to lift the Heat to a wild 130-127 double-overtime win over the Chicago Bulls. Wade, a top MVP candidate, also had 12 assists in 49 minutes, shot 15-for-21 from the field and made a 3-pointer at the end of the first half, then again at the end of regulation.
SCARY SIGHT
Portland forward Rudy Fernandez was taken from the court on a stretcher with his neck in a brace Monday night after he was fouled hard by Trevor Ariza in the fourth quarter of Portland’s 111-94 win over the Los Angeles Lakers. The rookie from Spain fell hard on his elbow and his hip, and remained prone under the basket for several minutes. X-rays and a CT scan were negative, but Fernandez was expected to remain at the hospital overnight with what the team called a “soft tissue injury to his right upper chest/side area.”
SOMEONE HAD TO WIN
Caron Butler had 27 points, 10 rebounds and six assists to lead Washington to a 110-99 victory over Minnesota on Monday night in a matchup of teams that had lost 14 straight combined. The Wizards lost five in a row and seven of their last eight before the win, while the Timberwolves have lost 10 in a row and 15 of their last 16. Minnesota (18-45) is 1-12 since Al Jefferson was lost for the season with a torn ACL before the All-Star break.
STANDINGS
Denver had a chance to tie idle Utah atop the Northwest Division after losing their grip on first place 24 hours earlier with a loss at Sacramento, but lost for the eighth time in 11 games Monday night, this time 97-95 to the Houston Rockets. The Nuggets were the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference at the All-Star break but have slipped all the way to seventh.
STRONG IN DEFEAT
Ben Gordon scored a season-high 43 points for Chicago, including eight 3-pointers, but the Bulls lost to Miami 130-127 in two overtimes Monday night as Dwyane Wade hit a running 3-pointer at the buzzer. … Kobe Bryant had 26 points for the Los Angeles Lakers, who lost at Portland 111-94 and haven’t won at the Rose Garden in their last seven tries, with their last victory Feb. 23, 2005.
STEPPING IN
Detroit’s Kwame Brown, who has struggled since being the No. 1 overall pick in the 2001 draft, had 10 points and played 26 minutes of tough defense against Dwight Howard as the Pistons beat the Orlando Magic 98-94 on Monday night. He stepped up after Rasheed Wallace left with a first-quarter injury.
SIDELINED
Atlanta’s Marvin Williams, who averages 14 points per game, was held out with an undisclosed lower back injury. He was examined by Hawks doctors Monday and will see another doctor Tuesday. … New Orleans F Peja Stojakovic missed his third straight game with back spasms. … Minnesota guard Randy Foye had to be carried to the locker room in the fourth quarter of the Timberwolves’ 110-99 loss to Washington with a sprained right ankle.
SPEAKING
“Right now, man, there ain’t nobody in the league playing better than him.”—Miami’s Jamario Moon on teammate Dwyane Wade, who made a running 3-pointer as time expired and scored 48 points to lead the Heat to a 130-127 victory over Chicago on Monday night.
“Mr. Dwyane Tyrone Wade Jr., if he’s not legitimately considered for an MVP candidate, I don’t know what he needs to do. We are currently a playoff contender and night after night, he’s making incredible plays like this.”— Miami coach Erik Spoelstra.
UTAH vs. INDIANA
Utah is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Indiana
Utah is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Indiana is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
NEW YORK vs. MILWAUKEE
New York is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New York's last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Milwaukee is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
CHARLOTTE vs. SAN ANTONIO
Charlotte is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing San Antonio
Charlotte is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing San Antonio
San Antonio is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
San Antonio is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games
DALLAS vs. PHOENIX
Dallas is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Dallas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 7 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
OKLAHOMA CITY vs. SACRAMENTO
Oklahoma City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Sacramento
Oklahoma City is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Sacramento
Sacramento is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
Sacramento is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
CLEVELAND vs. LA CLIPPERS
Cleveland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games on the road
LA Clippers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing Cleveland
LA Clippers are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Hot Teams
-- Pacers won three of last four games, covered seven of last nine. Utah won their last 11 games.
-- Bobcats won, covered their last six games. Spurs won six of last nine.
-- Mavericks won five of last seven games.
-- Thunder won four of its last five games.
-- Cavaliers won four of their last five games.
Cold Teams
-- Bucks lost seven of their last ten games. Knicks lost five of last six.
-- Suns lost last four games, by 12-6-4-5 points.
-- Kings lost five oflast seven games, but covered seven of last ten.
-- Clippers lost last five games (1-4 against spread).
Totals
-- Last six Indiana home games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last ten Milwaukee home games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Charlotte games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Dallas games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Thunder games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last nine Cleveland games stayed under the total.
Back-to Back
-- Jazz are 6-3 vs spread if they play again the next night.
-- Knicks are 2-4 vs spread on road if they play again the next night.
-- Dallas is 3-2 vs spread on road if they play again the next night.
-- Thunder are 6-4-1 vs spread if they play again the next night.
NBA Tuesday Report
by Andre Gomes
Utah @ Indiana
Utah is such a confident team right now that with their big run in danger in their last game at Toronto, they were able to rally back in the 4th quarter by outscoring the Raptors by 28-14, winning the game and even covering the spread. This win has sent their winning streak to 11 games and we have to start wondering who can really stop them right now? Carlos Boozer didn't play in Toronto, but he is probable to play today in Indiana. On the other side, the Pacers are coming from a very good road trip, where they won at Sacramento and in LA against the Clippers and lost by just two points at Portland. The Pacers will now play in a typical flat out spot for them and without Granger and Dunleavy, but they always seem to be capable of being competitive against top teams. Utah is with a lot of momentum and they will be a road favorite in here by a nice margin, but for how long will they be capable to maintain such run? Also note that their last loss was against the Warriors, a team who plays with a similar style of the Pacers.
New York @ Milwaukee
The Knicks can't really gain any momentum to make a nice run and it looks like they won't be in the playoffs once again. They lost another ballgame this time in New Jersey and if they had won most of the ballgames where the team was involved, they would be in a playoff spot right now. Still, the Knicks are a very dangerous team and the fact is that their last 5 losses were by 5, 5, 5, 9 and 5 points, so it's not like they are getting destroyed. They will play in Milwaukee today against the Bucks, who aren't also exactly a team who can finish off the games very well. Milwaukee was able to stop their bad streak with a home win against the Warriors in their last game, but the fact that they have just beaten the Warriors and the Wizards in their last 7 games is really a concern for them. I predict this match to be a ballgame and then, the team who finishes off the game better will get the win.
Charlotte @ San Antonio
Look out for the Bobcats because they are onfire! Charlotte has won 6 games and considering four of them were on the road, we can really say that the Bobcats are one of the best teams of the league right now! Their defense is just amazing and their confidence is allowing them to perform very well on the offense too. They will comeback to Texas just for a match against the Spurs, but this match may be the perfect test for them to see if they can really be competitive against top teams or not. San Antonio is coming from a tough home win against the Suns and they are also in good form, as they have won 7 of their last 10 games. The Spurs are the rightful favorite in here, but the Bobcats are playing so well that I wouldn't be surprised to see this match getting decided on the last play of the game.
Dallas @ Phoenix
The Suns can't really beat the top teams and that's why they will most likely be out of the playoffs this season. They are coming from four games in a row where they lost against Miami, Orlando, Houston and San Antonio and even though they were close to win all four games, they couldn't win a single one at the end. The loss of Amare was a tough blow for the playoffs aspirations of the Suns, who can't really finish off the games well against top teams. On the other side, Dallas hasn't been amazing neither in games against other top teams and they are also struggling to get into a nice position in the western conference. Howard is out for this game and I predict this game to be really entertaining to watch, while I'm not sure if there is still a lot of fight inside the players of the Suns, after four tough losses in a row.
Oklahoma City @ Sacramento
One thing is certain in this game. One team will continue their good moment after having defeated a playoff team, while the other will see their momentum getting killed in this game. Both teams are coming from big wins against very good teams, but it's also true that both teams are struggling right now. The Kings were in a tough losing streak before beating Denver last night, while the Thunder have been competitive as of late, but they are without their best two players: Durant and Green. Both teams have a some kind of a recent rivalry, as they have played twice recently and both matches were extremely close. I expect the same thing to happen today and all the value will be on the underdog, if there is a clear underdog in this game.
Cleveland @ LA Clippers
The Cavs have once again traveled to the West, where they will play three games in a span of four days. This won't be an easy spot for the Cavs, but when you have Lebron, things get way easier for you even when you are in a supposed bad spot. Cleveland is coming from a nice win at home against Miami, where they once again bounced back very well from a loss. On the other side, the Clippers continue their disastrous season and they have lost their last five games. They continue to have a lot of injured players, but at least Chris Kaman is probably to return today and play limited minutes. This seems to be a very easy game for the Cavs, but note that the Clippers have defeated Boston two weeks ago and the fact that the Cavs will play at Phoenix next may make them overlook this game.
Tips and Trends
Utah Jazz at Indiana Pacers
Jazz (-3, O/U 216): Utah has won 11 straight games for the first time since 1999, and the team is coming off an impressive 109-101 victory at Toronto on Sunday. The Jazz outscored the Raptors 28-14 in the fourth quarter despite Carlos Boozer missing the game with an ankle injury. “I like the feeling,” Utah head coach Jerry Sloan said. “We weathered a lot of the storm to try and hang in there. Now if we can keep everybody together and keep everybody happy I think we’ll be competitive down the stretch.”
Jazz are 8-3 ATS during 11-game winning streak.
The OVER is 9-4 in Utah's last 13 road games.
Key Injuries - F Carlos Boozer (ankle) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 111 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)
Pacers: Indiana returns home following a successful road trip that netted two wins in three games following a 106-105 victory against the Clippers on Saturday. The Pacers outscored LA 55-41 in the second half and saw Jarrett Jack score nine of his 25 points in the fourth quarter. “Guys really showed what they are made of in the fourth quarter,” Jack said. “We dug in defensively. I think guys really took the challenge to stay in front of their own guy and then when the ball was on the rim, going in for the rebound.”
Pacers are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
The OVER is 8-1 in Indiana's last 9 games vs. Northwest Division.
Key Injuries - F Danny Granger (foot) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 108