Boston (36-21, 21-35-1 ATS) at Detroit (21-38, 25-32-2 ATS)
The slumping Celtics, coming off consecutive home losses, try to regain momentum when they trek to The Palace in Auburn Hills, Mich., for an Eastern Conference contest against the Pistons.
Boston blew an eight-point lead to Cleveland on Thursday, getting outscored 60-32 in the second half of a 108-88 loss as a 2½-point home underdog. Things got even worse Saturday, though, when they hosted the Nets (5-53) and lost 104-96 as a 10½-point home favorite. Going back to Dec. 27, Boston is just 13-16 SU and 8-20-1 ATS, including 4-15-1 ATS in its last 20 and 0-4 ATS in the last four. On the bright side, Doc Rivers’ squad still sports one of the best road records in the NBA at 20-10 (15-15 ATS).
Detroit returns home after a four-game Western Conference road trip that started with a 101-89 victory in Sacramento as a 2½-point underdog last Tuesday but ended with three consecutive losses (1-2 ATS) to the Clippers, Nuggets and Warriors by 6, 5 and 7 points. The Pistons have dropped 12 of their last 18 games (6-11-1 ATS), going 3-7 in their last nine at home (2-7-1 ATS). Going back to mid-December, they’re 10-26 SU (11-24-1 ATS), including 6-12 at The Palace (5-12-1 ATS).
One of Detroit’s recent home victories came against Boston on Jan. 20, when the Pistons rolled 92-86 as a six-point underdog. They’ve won the last two in a row in this rivalry (SU and ATS) following a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS run by the Celtics. That said, the visitor is has won and covered four of the last six meetings; the visitor is 14-5 ATS in the last 19; the underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10; Boston is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 trips to Motown; and the SU winner has covered in each of the last six meetings and 14 of the last 15.
In addition to their current 8-20-1 ATS slump overall, the Celtics are in pointspread ruts of 0-6 in Eastern Conference games, 0-4 versus the Central Division, 0-4 versus losing teams, 0-4 on Tuesday and 5-15-1 when coming off a SU defeat. The Pistons have cashed in six straight Tuesday contests and they’re 3-1-1 ATS in their last five against Atlantic Division teams, but from there, they’re on ATS slides 2-6-1 against the Eastern Conference, 2-5 versus winning teams, 25-51-1 after a SU defeat and 23-50-1 after an ATS setback.
Boston has topped the total in four straight games overall, and the over is 18-8-1 in its last 27 following two days off. However, the under is 5-1 in its last six on the road and 5-1 in its last six against Central Division opponents, while Detroit is on “under” runs of 10-3 against the Eastern Conference, 5-1 versus opponents with a winning record and 4-1 on Tuesday.
Finally, 16 of the last 21 meetings between these rivals have stayed low, including the last seven in a row in Detroit.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Tuesday's Best NBA Bets
Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons (N/A)
Boston's Rasheed Wallace has always had the mentality of a shooting guard trapped in a power forward's body. He never saw a 3-pointer he wouldn't take.
But the Celtics have called upon Sheed to show off his skills in the low post lately and will again tonight with center Kendrick Perkins out with the flu.
"Every guy in the league loves to watch that. They love him shooting 3’s," a Celtics assistant told the Boston Herald about Wallace's play in the paint. "Unstoppable. Unstoppable. He’s got so many moves down on the low block that you can’t stop him. That’s why we love to see him outside."
Since vowing to spend more time in the paint after the All-Star break, Wallace has attempted just 64 treys compared to 431 tries in the first half. He is shooting .342 from 3-point range but .518 from inside the arc.
"That’s where I was born at. That’s my bread and butter. That’s what I want," Wallace said of his inside game. "That’s what I want, but if that play design is for that 3, then that’s what I have to do."
Sheed should be extra motivated to return to Motown and play against former teammate Ben Wallace. Pistons centers Kwame Brown (flu) and Chris Wilcox (back) are listed as questionable. The Celtics welcome Paul Pierce back too.
Pick: Celtics
Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat (N/A)
The Miami Heat are taking one step forward while the Golden State Warriors are taking two steps back.
Dwyane Wade returned Sunday after missing four games with a calf muscle strain. He didn't have his A-game, scoring just 21 points on 6 for 17 shooting, but it was a good sign for the Heat, losers of four straight.
"I was a little rusty. I'm not back to where I want to be," Wade told the Orlando Sentinel following Sunday's loss to the Magic. "But I did some things that were positive, so I can move forward."
The Warriors wish they could do the same but put two more players to their growing list of walking wounded. Guard Monta Ellis, who averages 25.7 points per game, and forward Andris Biedrins (groin) did not make the trip with the team.
The Warriors start a five-game road swing tonight after losing their last six as visitors.
Pick: Heat
NBA RoundUp For 3/2
By Dan Bebe
Celtics @ Pistons - This line is OFF. I can't even tell you how badly I want to back Detroit, just looking at the way these teams have been playing. I'm just not sure the time is right. Why, you ask? Well, the Pistons are playing their first home game since February 21st, so there might be the slight "first game home" situation. I'm not completely sold on it, though, since Detroit has a road game tomorrow in New York. So, it's not the traditional start of a homestand, and I'm not sure that the players are going to get sucked into a ton of family life chores since the wife and kids know they're going right back out for a couple more days. The concern becomes, instead, the fact that the Pistons are coming home from Golden State, so a 3-hour time difference and a 4 hour flight, plus the weird jet-lag of flying back to Michigan. Despite all that, I still really want to back Detroit - I know, crazy, right? Detroit, though, has been playing much, much better basketball lately, basically covering any game where they've had a day of rest beforehand, and failing to cover when they're on back-to-backs. They also have a ton of veteran leadership, which makes me think they have zero fear of the Celtics. The same can be true of Boston, they've been very tough against the Pistons in recent history. But we have to take that with a grain of salt; these were two of the top teams in the East 2 years ago, when there wasn't a great deal of line value. Now, Detroit is the lesser team, which means betting Detroit comes with instant value. Boston is coming off that ugly, ugly loss to New Jersey, which means folks will be split between thinking they'll bounce back angry or continue to stumble. Still, despite all that, I lean Detroit. I also think with two defensive teams, we might get some value on the Over.
Warriors @ Heat - This line is OFF. I'm not even sure the Warriors have enough players to be considered an NBA team. Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins are the latest casualties of being on the Warriors, if indeed that is the curse of the year. I really do not like this game. The Warriors are going to be monster underdogs, since they're basically now Stephen Curry and 5 or 6 guys that should either be in the NBDL or College. The unpredictability of the situation makes it an awful value spot. Yes, I realize there are only 4 games on the card, so each one should be picked clean of information, but I see zero reason to try to pick a side in this one. The Warriors are on home revenge, but again, how exactly is a team of guys that are all going to need to play the full 48 minutes without fouling going to get revenge on a vicious defensive-minded team like the Heat who just got their superstar back. No lean on the side. Now, as far as the total is concerned, I'm very curious to see where this one comes out. The Heat are the ultimate low-scoring team, and the Warriors are just the opposite. As we've seen, though, Golden State plays to the under when they're on the road, since they just don't shoot even close to as well. They don't defend at all home or road, so the difference is largely on the offensive side. When these teams met in mid-December, the total was set at 214, and it went over, if but barely. I think we see this total set lower, possibly because of injury, but I'll be surprised to see the Warriors break 95. I lean Under.
Kings @ Thunder - Oklahoma City by 10.5 with a total of 202. Back-to-back wins and covers for both teams coming into this one, but given the monstrous line, I think it's pretty clear that this is a spot where we should start with the road team and work our way to the home team, if we can make it that far. Both teams play again tomorrow, the Kings in Houston and the Thunder in Denver. Based on that, you'd think the Thunder might have a slight look-ahead spot, though not all that strong, given how well this team has been focusing on each and every game. On their current short homestand, the Thunder have been favored by 9, 9.5 and now 10.5, and they have blown out the Wolves and Raptors thus far. I guess we have to weigh the probability that the Thunder just run another team right out of the building versus the chance that they take Sacramento lightly. These teams have met twice this year, but haven't played since November, and they split the home games way back when. For all intents and purposes, this is a brand new Thunder team now. Still, I can't really advocate backing a team as a 10.5-point favorite. Double digit favorites have performed terribly this year, and basically every year, with the back door wide, wide open. And unless one team is in an especially awful situational spot, which neither is, there's no great reason to take the huge home favorite. I wouldn't say I lean Sacramento, but I certainly don't lean to Oklahoma. On the total, I think this number is pretty accurate, but I'd lean just slightly to the Under.
Pacers @ Lakers - Los Angeles by 12.5 with a total of 208.5. This is just the icing on an hideous NBA card, at least in terms of the relevance of the games. The Lakers are in an odd spot here, coming off the big Sunday afternoon win over the Nuggets. Is this a letdown spot? I don't necessarily think so. I think the best teams in the NBA have a greater tendency to look ahead than they do to look back. We've seen Boston follow up big wins with covers, and we just saw the Cavs do the same, though it took them overtime to pull it off. I do like that the Lakers did finally beat the Nuggets, since there may be a sense of satisfaction. It's tough, though. We know how vicious the Lakers can be when they're playing together, and the biggest question in my mind is whether Lamar Odom uses his outstanding game against the Nuggets as a leaping point, or whether he regresses to his sometimes-play mentality that we tend to see against bad teams. The Lakers are just 1-5 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more, so we're up in that category I can only describe as "mega." I believe the letdown angle is really the only thing going here, since the Lakers did beat Indiana by 22 on the road earlier this year, outrebounding the Pacers by 21. Can Indiana play hard enough to keep this thing a game? I would venture to say that they cover this number more than 50% of the team, and I lean Indiana. On the total, if Indiana is going to cover, they're going to need to get out in the open court, since they're definitely not going to win a game based on size and strength, so I just have to look at the Over, even though I don't particularly like the value.
Trend Report - Tuesday
By Ed Meyer
Warriors at Heat – The Warriors are 0-8-1 ATS (-6.9 ppg) since December 07, 2007 after a home win in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line. The Warriors are 0-8 ATS (-5.6 ppg) since March 10, 1997 on the road off a win as a favorite in which they trailed at the end of each of the first three quarters. The Warriors are 7-0 ATS (9.1 ppg) since December 03, 2002 with two or more days of rest after a win in which their opponent shot less than 60% from the free-throw line.
Pacers at Lakers – The Pacers are 0-5 ATS (-7.8 ppg) since April 04, 2004 on the road with at least one day of rest after a double digit win in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line. The Lakers are 0-5-1 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since January 06, 2010 after a home win in which their DPS was negative.
Celtics at Pistons – The Celtics are 0-10 ATS (-5.9 ppg) since March 04, 2009 after a loss in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line. The Celtics are 9-0 ATS (10.1 ppg) since February 15, 2000 on the road with two or more days of rest after a game at home in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Pistons are 0-6 ATS (-8.1 ppg) since November 22, 2009 when they lost their last two games and both were on the road.
Kings at Thunder – The Kings are 6-0 ATS (7.1 ppg) since January 02, 2009 after a home win in which they allowed less than 40% from the field. The Kings are 0-6 ATS (-12.8 ppg) since December 01, 2006 on the road after a win in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers. The Thunder are 5-0 ATS (7.8 ppg) since December 29, 2008 at home when seeking revenge for a 1-3 point loss.