Phoenix (47-26, 41-31-1 ATS) at Chicago (35-38, 37-34-2 ATS)
The red-hot Suns take a seven-game winning streak to the United Center for a clash with the Bulls, who are in must-win mode as they currently sit on the outside of the Eastern Conference playoff picture.
Phoenix kicked off a five-game road trip Sunday with a 111-105 victory in Minnesota, though it came up short as a nine-point favorite. The Suns squandered most of a 22-point halftime lead against the lowly Timberwolves and got dominated on the glass (58-41 overall; 20-7 on offensive rebounds). Still, they won their third straight road game and improved to 9-2 in their last 11 on the highway (8-3 ATS). Phoenix currently sits fifth in the Western Conference playoff standings, but only 2½ games ahead of three teams tied for the final three playoff spots.
Chicago is coming off consecutive blowout wins over New Jersey on Saturday (106-83 as a nine-point home favorite) and Detroit on Sunday (110-103 as a 2½-point road underdog). The Bulls are 4-1 SU in their last five games and 6-1 ATS in their last eight. That said, they’ve dropped six of their last eight at home (3-5 ATS). Also, Chicago is in ninth place in the Eastern Conference, trailing Toronto by a half-game for the eighth and final postseason berth.
The Bulls have defeated the Suns three straight times (3-0 ATS), including a 115-104 upset victory as a 6½-point underdog on Jan. 22 in Phoenix. Chicago has cashed in five of the last seven meetings (all as an underdog), but the visitor is 5-2 SU during this seven-game stretch.
Despite Sunday’s non-cover against the TWolves, the Suns are on ATS runs of 18-7-1 overall, 8-3 on the road, 11-2-1 when coming off a day of rest, 8-3 versus opponents with a losing record, 9-4-1 after a SU win, 5-2 after a non-cover and 20-8-1 on Tuesday. The lone negative: Six consecutive non-covers against Central Division opponents.
In addition to cashing in seven of eight overall, Chicago is on pointspread surges of 10-4 against the Western Conference, 11-5 after a SU win, 21-7 after a spread-cover, 4-1 against winning teams and 5-2 on Tuesday. However, the Bulls have failed to cover in four of five against Pacific Division squads.
Phoenix ended a 4-0 “over” run on the road by staying low in Sunday’s game at Minnesota. Still, the Suns are on “under” stretches of 15-5-1 against Eastern Conference teams, 5-1 versus the Central Division and 10-4 versus losing teams. Similarly, Chicago carries “under” trends of 5-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 4-0 when coming off a day of rest and 5-2 against Pacific Division opponents.
Finally, these teams have stayed under the posted total in 11 of the last 16 meetings overall, including seven of eight in the Windy City.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA RoundUp For 3/30
By Dan Bebe
Kings @ Pacers - This line is OFF. I suppose Tyreke Evans is nearing a return, but I don't know his status just yet. Let's assume he's still out. With that in mind, we have to decide if the fairly large number that the Pacers are laying is going to be too many. I'm pretty well convinced that Indiana is going to win this game. They're playing good basketball, and even in the loss in Atlanta, they looked better at the defensive end of the floor - they just didn't make shots. That problem doesn't usually come into play at home against a poor defensive team. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Pacers laying 6 or 7 points, here, maybe even as high as 8, but with the way they've been playing, that's not that crazy. If this number is on the lower end of that spectrum, that could be a value with Indiana. The Kings won the first game without Evans, but since then have lost 4 straight, and while they did cover the most recent two games, those games weren't really close, the Kings were just getting a ton of points. In this one, neither team is in a great situational spot - the Pacers are a young team coming off a win streak, and the Kings are missing their best player and coming off games with Boston and Cleveland. I'm just not sure the Kings care about these games near the end of the season, at least not the ones on the road. The effort hasn't been that great, and I'm inclined to believe Indiana surprises Sacramento with a way tougher game than they expect - lean to Pacers. On the total, I would love to see a number near 210, since Indiana's improving defense could mean some value with the Under, but the posted total has to help us out a little here.
Thunder @ Sixers - Oklahoma by 6 with a total of 195. One of the League's best road teams, the Thunder, with a game tomorrow in Boston, taking on one of the League's worst home teams, Philadelphia, with a game tomorrow in Charlotte. I would certainly say that between those two look-ahead scenarios, the one facing the Thunder is a little more extreme. However, as we've covered many times over the last 2 weeks, at this point in the season, I'm just not sure that the idea of the look-ahead truly exists. This is a part of the season where the good teams hunker down and take care of business against every opponent, good or bad, hot or cold. And right now, the Thunder are embroiled in a ridiculous cluster of teams out West all battling for home court and battling to avoid the Lakers in the opening round. Oklahoma is in decent shape, a little ahead of the bottom of the pack, but there's more than enough time left for anybody to slide into 4th...or 8th. This game is interesting in that the Thunder are laying more points than they did against the Clippers, and that doesn't seem quite right. The Sixers have actually won 2 in a row, pretty decisively might I add, and I just don't think they're going to be the pushovers everyone seems to think. Young teams playing with confidence are dangerous to fade, and the Sixers are clearly a value play. But can they cover? I think that, given the situation, you have to at least give a look to the home team, and I figure we'll see a pretty goodly home/road split of money on this one, as well. I lean to the Sixers by a nose. The total of 195 is spot on, I believe. The Sixers haven't been playing all that fast, but they've been making shots, and if the Thunder play defense, this one could just barely sneak Under.
Clippers @ Bucks - Milwaukee by 10 with a total of 193. The Clippers are the worst team in the NBA again, somehow. It just boggles my mind that a team with Baron Davis (or some strange doppelganger that can't play basketball in Baron's body), Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman, and a host of competent backups (Drew Gooden, Rasual Butler, Craig Smith) still can't beat anyone, and can't even stay close to most teams. Somehow, though, one of the few games that saw the Clippers give a decent effort was a home game against these very Bucks. Milwaukee's been struggling a tad, so for them to be laying 10 points right now is a little suspect, and honestly, I don't like either club. Milwaukee isn't beating anyone by double digits right now, and the Clippers aren't really hanging tough most nights. Feels like a coin-flip, though the Bucks do have a game in Cleveland tomorrow, and might want to use that one as a proving ground. Still, we talked already in this blog about how much weight a look-ahead really carries at this stage of the year, and it's not as much. I suppose you have to like getting 10 points when the home team isn't in a good situational spot, so teeny tiny lean to the Clippers. The total seems too high, to me. the Clippers beat the Bucks 101-93 in LA, shooting 53% at home. Clippers won't shoot 53% again, and while the Bucks might shoot a bit better, this one should stay in the 180's. Lean to the Under.
Suns @ Bulls - Phoenix by 3.5 with a total of 217.5. I know this sounds nuts, but the Bulls actually match up pretty well with the Suns, but oddsmakers don't have a strong feel for Chicago lately, I believe. The mere fact that we saw the Bulls as 2-point dogs in Detroit was proof enough that the books have no clue what to expect from them. That game was a back-to-back, which obviously played a role, but for Phoenix, one of the best teams in the West, to only be laying 3.5 points in Chicago is going to draw an absolute ton of attention. Is this a particularly good or bad spot for either team? Not really. The Suns play in Jersey tomorrow, and Chicago has a couple days off before a game in Washington. We know the Bulls are playing for their lives, but the Suns would seem to want these games pretty badly, too. I think we get two highly motivated teams, and I'd love to say I have confidence the Bulls get it done, and while they have beat the Suns once already this year, I have no lean on the side...yet. The total of 217.5 is pretty accurate, I believe, since both teams could get to 110, but if either club has an off-night, this one stays under. Coin-flip, so I'd advocate waiting and seeing if we get some value over the course of the day. As of now, I would err just slightly to the Under, since teams that are normally running like crazy are slowing things up just a bit.
Wizards @ Rockets - This line is OFF. I don't think either team really wants to be involved in this one, and that means that my first thought is to look at the total. So, let's flip things around, and check out totals numbers first. The Rockets are coming off a high-scoring game with the Lakers, as LA just made everything from the field, and Houston actually came out firing in the second half in sort of a last-ditch effort to make themselves feel better. I honestly let out a little laugh when I took a look at how these teams have been doing, especially straight up. Washington is zero for March, and in jeopardy of going winless over an entire month (currently 0-15). The Rockets have lost 4 straight, and they should prove to be a marginal favorite in this one. Do the Wizards have the gusto to actually compete this close to the end of the season? There has been word of some turmoil brewing between budding star Andray Blatche and coach Saunders, and that might partially explain why a team playing such awful basketball can't even find their way into a back door cover, lately. But hey, no team likes to lose, and I wonder if we don't get a relatively strong effort from Washington, secure in their lottery position. The Rockets' best interest right now is to lose games, and with a more interesting game with San Antonio coming up tomorrow, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Rockets take a night off. Lean to Washington on the side. This total might be a bit inflated from the Rockets high scoring game with the Lakers, but Washington can't score, and they prefer a slower game. I think we'll get some value on the Under, assuming the line doesn't come out too low to begin with.
Trend Report - Tuesday
By Ed Meyer
Clippers at Bucks – The Clippers are 0-9 ATS (-10.4 ppg) since January 29, 2003 with at least one day of rest off a loss as a favorite in which they led by 10+ points. The Bucks are 6-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) since December 16, 2009 off an overtime game.
Suns at Bulls – The Suns are 0-6 ATS (-6.4 ppg) since March 17, 1996 on the road when facing a non-conference team they lost to as a favorite by double digits in their first match-up of the season. The Bulls are 7-0 ATS (12.9 ppg) since December 20, 2008 when facing a non-conference team they beat as a dog in their first match-up of the season. The Bulls are 7-0 ATS (13.1 ppg) since November 10, 2009 with at least one day of rest after a win in which they shot at least 50% from the field.
Kings at Pacers – The Pacers are 0-8 ATS (-9.8 ppg) since January 15, 2007 with at least one day of rest off a loss that broke at least a three-game winning streak. The Pacers are 0-6 ATS (-9.7 ppg) since March 18, 2009 at home with at least one day of rest when their DPS was minus 15 points or less in their previous game.
Wizards at Rockets – The Wizards are 7-0 ATS (6.9 ppg) since December 21, 2006 on the road with two or more days of rest after a game in which they shot less than 40% from the field. The Wizards are 0-6 ATS (-11.3 ppg) since January 12, 2010 after a game at home in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. The Rockets are 8-0 ATS (6.3 ppg) since November 15, 2004 after a home loss against the Lakers. The Rockets are 6-0 ATS (13.6 ppg) since November 29, 2008 with two or more days of rest after a loss in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two.
Thunder at 76ers – The Thunder are 7-0 ATS (9.4 ppg) since November 03, 2009 after a loss in which they had fewer than fifteen assists. The Thunder are 6-0 ATS (8.4 ppg) since December 19, 2008 after a home loss in which their DPA was negative. The 76ers are 0-9 ATS (-9.8 ppg) since December 26, 2009 when seeking revenge for a loss in which they allowed at least 50% shooting from the field.