Tuesday's Best NBA Bet
Portland Trail Blazers at Miami Heat (-8.5, 189.5)
Say what you will about tear-jerking loss the Miami Heat suffered on Sunday night, but there’s no way any team in the Association would trade places with the Portland Trail Blazers as they visit the Heat on Tuesday.
There’s no question the Heat are still a work in progress, a team that has most of the tools a championship team needs but still can’t put all the pieces of the puzzle together every night. That’s why cohesive teams are getting the better of them.
That’s not to say they don’t have the talent to torch subpar teams – especially when they’re coming off an embarrassing display like that debacle Sunday’s game turned into down the stretch.
"That was one of the things we got to understand when we all decided to come together,” Dwyane Wade said about giving up fourth-quarter shots to LeBron James. “That there were going to be sacrifices that have to be made. And you live with the consequences."
Remember when LeBron visited Cleveland for the first time? Expect that kind of effort Tuesday as Miami bounces back against a Portland club playing its second game in as many nights.
Pick: Heat
Red-hot Los Angeles Lakers in Atlanta
By: Michael Robinson
The two-time defending champion Los Angeles Lakers have silenced all their critics as they go for their eighth straight win Tuesday night in Atlanta.
The Lakers (45-19 straight-up, 31-32-1 against the spread) are also getting it done from an ATS perspective, 6-1 during the winning streak.
Coach Phil Jackson’s team saved its best for Sunday at the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs were 29-2 SU at home heading in, but were overmatched in a 99-83 defeat as three-point favorites.
That game was over at halftime with a 28-point margin. Kobe Bryant led the way with 26 points, but it was the defense that stepped up and held the Spurs to 36 percent shooting.
The 182 combined points scored went ‘under’ the 191½-point total. The ‘under’ is 4-0 in Los Angeles’ last four games, allowing just 83.3 PPG. The defense is allowing 87 PPG during the last seven and one went into overtime.
Ironically, L.A. began this winning streak at home against Atlanta. The Feb. 22 encounter was another mismatch with a 104-80 final as eight-point favorites. The twin towers of Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol dominated the boards and there was a 54-32 advantage on the glass overall.
The Lakers are 23-11 SU and 19-14-1 ATS on the road this year. They’re 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four road games. That includes tough venues of Portland and Oklahoma City, in addition to San Antonio.
The Hawks (37-26 SU, 28-35 ATS) are in fifth place in the Eastern Conference (Los Angeles is third in the West), but are a team in transition.
Kirk Hinrich is starting at point guard after recently being acquired from Washington. Mike Bibby headed North in the swap, although he’s now with Miami. Atlanta is 3-3 SU and ATS since the trade, but 0-2 SU and ATS in the last two.
The last game was Sunday at home against the Knicks. New York got the 92-79 win as 3 ½-point ‘dogs despite missing point guard Chauncey Billups. Atlanta got to the line just nine times.
The 171 combined points scored went way ‘under’ the 202 ½-point total. The ‘under’ is 9-2 in Atlanta’s last 11 games, the Hawks scoring 100 points just once in that span.
This matchup Tuesday is a tough one. Josh Smith (16.7 PPG, 8.8 RPG) and Al Horford (16 PPG, 9.9 RPG) are very good players at power forward and center. However, they give up three and two inches respectively to Gasol and Bynum. Look for more minutes from Atlanta’s backup big men to use up some fouls.
Guard Joe Johnson (19.1 PPG) is the team’s leading scorer, but has a tough assignment going against Bryant. A big scoring night from sixth man Jamal Crawford (15 PPG) is a necessity.
The Hawks do have precedence for beating the Lakers at home. They’re 3-0 SU and ATS the last three years. Bynum was injured last year, a 109-92 Hawks win as 1½-point ‘dogs.
Atlanta is just 18-11 SU and 10-19 ATS at home this year. It’s 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.
Atlanta is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 against the Western Conference.
There are no significant injuries to report for ether team. L.A. just got back reserve forward Matt Barnes (knee). Smith (knee) also returned last game after missing two contests.
Tip-off will be 4 p.m. (PT) from Philips Arena and broadcast locally. The Lakers can’t afford to look ahead to a Thursday tilt at Miami. Atlanta next visits Chicago on Friday.
NBA Previews
By Dan Bebe
Milwaukee Bucks @ Washington Wizards
I think it was one of the regulars (maybe Hags) that repeated the line, "Nobody beats the Wiz at home...sometimes!" That's more or less how I feel about this game. Milwaukee is struggling, more injuries rendering them a fairly incompetent offensive team. They held a lead over the Celtics in their last game and just did manage to hang on and cover (losing the game), but for this team, narrow losses just aren't enough. More and more you can see them losing interest, even though Charlotte's simultaneous freefall makes jumping them and challenging the Pacers for the final spot not that unlikely. Problem is, Milwaukee might be feeling a bit sorry for itself, and without the guns to compete, they're just rolling over. Hell, they haven't shot better than 43.9% from the field in 6 games! The reasons to skip this game entirely? Well, Washington isn't really beating many teams even at home, aside from the Wolves (who were, at the time, playing a 4th in 5 nights). The Wiz are having their own offensive issues, and they did beat Milwaukee here in Washington less than a month ago. The two totals this year for these teams have been 187 and 185 - if the teams could get up near 46-47% shooting, we should see a game in the 190's, but there's no guarantee there, either. Tiny lean to the BUCKS and the OVER.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Indiana Pacers (-1.5) with a total of 205.5
The Pacers have, pretty quietly, lost 5 of 6 games. While the most recent 3 were road contests at the Thunder, Mavs and Rockets (all tough games), I think it's safe to say the Vogel shine has come off Indiana, and they're rapidly falling back to sea level. In terms of pure hotness, the Sixers have the edge. Philadelphia has won 8 of 10 dating back to mid-February, though their scheduling has been fairly easy over that stretch. Regardless, I wouldn't really call a game with the Pacers a "toughening up" of the schedule, either. Philly has shown that they can win on the road, and they trail this season series 2 games to 1 after falling to Indy at home in mid-January. Not much to note on the scheduling front, but considering Indy was catching 5.5 in Philadelphia in the last meeting, there may indeed be some value to exploit in the line. Sum up the factors, and you've got yourself a smallish lean to the SIXERS and the UNDER.
Golden State Warriors (-3) @ Cleveland Cavaliers with a total of 216
The Warriors are the team of near-misses right now. They came up a buck short in Boston (covered), then took the Sixers to OT before falling there, too (failed to cover). I actually like how the Warriors have played on this road trip, but I wonder when the constant inability to get over that hump and actually put a road "W" on the board will wear the team down. Will it be in this game, the 6th out of 7 games on the voyage? Will it be tomorrow, the final game, a somewhat meaningless battle with the Nets before heading home to host the Magic? It's going to happen, and I'll admit when I'm scared - and right now, I'm a little nervous to back the Warriors, even though I like how hard they've been playing. The Cavs aren't a whole lot better - they covered for a few weeks when everyone was kicking them, now they've lost Antawn Jamison and Baron Davis is trying to convince the world he's willing to play for an awful team, and, frankly, I don't see Cleveland's cover-fest continuing for much longer. I might lean a little square on this one, since the Warriors might just have one more bullet in the chamber, but it's probably a coin-flip. Cleveland lost by 20+ in Oakland, but does it matter? Small lean to GOLDEN STATE and the OVER.
Los Angeles Lakers (-3.5) @ Atlanta Hawks with a total of 185.5
I have a strange feeling we'll see some value on Atlanta in this game when all is said and done. It might not be the opening number, but it's going to be there. Or hell, maybe it will be the opener. All I can say is that not 2 weeks ago the Lakers crushed Atlanta by 24 to open the second half of the season, and since then, the Lakers have annihilated all opponents, ranging from the lowly Wolves to the league-best Spurs. And that most recent blowout win over San Antonio was certainly an eye-catcher. The Lakers have Miami on deck in a revenge game, and even though LA is probably the hottest team in the NBA, I can't help but think those few key angles are pointing the other way. Now, don't get me wrong, Atlanta has looked pretty bad the last 2 games, but I believe they'll get up for this one, and I can't see the Lakers playing even close to as well as they did in San Antonio. Lean to the HAWKS and the OVER.
Portland Trailblazers @ Miami Heat (-8) with a total of 189.5
This is a tough one, because we really haven't seen anything like the Heat in the NBA in the last couple decades. A team that, because of 2 free agent signings, gets media attention when they take their morning leaks, well, it's just tough to know how people are going to react to every move. With a normal team, I'd be inclined to say that another meltdown and subsequent locker room campfire/feelings session would create value on that team, but with the Heat, it seems like every move they make, every minute of coverage on ESPN just serves to keep that buzz at its peak. You'd think that negative attention would make people want to fade Miami, but it seems like even the negative press just creates the notion of "Oh, Miami is all set to bounce back now." It's weird, really. So, the Heat have lost 4 straight, and everyone just keeps riding them, thinking they'll bounce back. Frankly, I'm done. I'm not betting on the Heat until they get it turned around, and even then, I still might not bet on them. Am I betting Portland? Probably not - they had to fly cross-country with only one off-day and now step into the media whirlwind in South Beach. This one is a chaotic travesty. PASS on the side is my recommendation or make a halftime play, and slight lean to the UNDER.
Houston Rockets @ Phoenix Suns (-5.5) with a total of 216.5
Obviously, our feelings on this game will depend heavily on how the Houston game in Sacramento plays out, and that one has yet to even begin as I type this, but the expectations are pretty clear, and I laid them out in yesterday's blog. Houston is coming to Phoenix off a late game in Northern California, losing an hour to time zones, and then trying to keep up with a very up-tempo Suns team. Plus, Houston hosts the Suns in a few days, so if they do come out flat and tired, we'll have a great opportunity to back Houston then. For me, this comes down to Steve Nash. He knows the Rockets schedule, he's a smart player, and he'll just keep running until the Rockets are sucking wind. Houston isn't that deep of a team, and though Courtney Lee has been playing better and Dragic will likely bring a nice effort against his old team, if Houston gets exhausted in Sacramento, we'll see a game similar to the one they played against the Clippers, but even a shade more tired, thanks to the time difference. It's not official yet, but without knowing the Houston result from Monday, I lean PHOENIX and the UNDER.