NBA News and Notes Tuesday 3/9

Boston (40-21, 24-36-1 ATS) at Milwaukee (33-29, 41-21 ATS)

Two squads going in the right direction clash at the Bradley Center, where the Celtics put a four-game winning streak on the line against the surging Bucks, who have won three in a row and nine of their last 10.

Boston needed a furious fourth-quarter rally to knock off the lowly Wizards 86-83 on Sunday, never threatening to cover as a 12-point home favorite to halt a three-game ATS surge. The Celtics have won four in a row and 11 of their last 16, but their 3-1 ATS uptick comes on the heels of an 11-25 ATS funk.

The Bucks started last week with a home-and-home sweep of the Wizards (100-87 victory as a 10-point home favorite; 102-74 as a four-point road chalk). Then they caught a break against Cleveland on Saturday, as LeBron James sat out with an injury and Milwaukee took advantage with a 92-85 victory over the Cavaliers as a 3½-point home favorite. The Bucks have cashed in 10 straight games (9-1 ATS) – going 4-0 SU and ATS at home – and they now have the best pointspread mark in the NBA.

Boston took out Milwaukee 98-89 in the only previous meeting this season, but the Bucks cashed as a 12½-point road underdog, their fourth straight spread-cover in this rivalry (all as an underdog). The Celtics are 7-1 SU in the last eight series clashes, but Milwaukee is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 (4-1 ATS at the Bradley Center).

The Celtics have cashed in four of their last five on the highway, but they’re otherwise in ATS ruts of 7-16-1 overall, 3-7 against Eastern Conference foes, 1-4 versus the Central Division, 3-8-1 against winning teams, 5-15-1 after one day off, 3-11-1 following a non-cover and 1-4 on Tuesday. Conversely, Milwaukee is on positive ATS runs of 44-21-1 going back to the end of last year, 4-0 at home, 22-6 in Eastern Conference games, 13-3 when facing the Atlantic Division, 4-1 when playing on two days of rest and 22-8 after a spread-cover.

Boston is on “under” runs of 6-2 on the road, 5-2 against the Central Division and 7-2 after a SU victory, while the Bucks sport “under” trends of 4-1 overall, 7-2 at home, 20-6 within the Eastern Conference, 10-4 after a SU win, 4-1 versus the Atlantic Division and 5-1 on Tuesday. Finally, the last two meetings between these squads have stayed below the posted total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MILWAUKEE and UNDER

NBA RoundUp For 3/9
By Dan Bebe

Rockets @ Wizards - This line is OFF. This is something of a battle of the mediocre. The Rockets have run out of steam, just unable to compete every night at such a severe height disadvantage on a regular basis. The Wizards young guys seem to be a tad short on energy, as well. After stepping up, big time, right after the Wiz traded away all their moving pieces, Washington has slowed substantially. They haven't cracked the 90-point barrier in 4 straight games, and somehow managed to hold Boston to just 86 points in a cover on Sunday's ESPN afternoon tilt. Washington is in a spot to be even more fatigued than usual, coming off that emotional loss in Boston. Houston, meanwhile, is coming off something of a late meltdown in Detroit, and the Pistons came back to tie it, then win it in overtime. So, is Houston going to be extra focused in this one, coming off the disappointing loss, or is that bad momentum going to carry over? The Rockets are a tough nut to crack these days, as they've alternated ATS wins and losses over their last 7 games, which means they're due for a win. Of course, that pattern means very little other than the fact that Houston doesn't seem to be able to play two decent games in a row. Those ATS wins and losses have also been SU wins and losses, so if we think Houston is going to win, we play them. If not, we don't. I happen to think Houston is in the better situational spot, and I lean to the square side. On the total, I have to look at the Under, as Washington is having all kinds of issues getting points lately.

Clippers @ Magic - This line is OFF. This spread is going to be frighteningly large. The Clippers were 14-point dogs to Utah on back-to-back, and the Magic are better than the Jazz. Of course, no back-to-back here, but I wouldn't be surprised to see almost the exact same spread in this one that we saw in the Clippers' last game. Interesting angles in this contest, I should say. For one, the Magic are playing their first game since the Sunday morning INTENSE game with the Lakers, which had everything from near buzzer-beaters to jawing, hard fouls, etc. It was a playoff game in the regular season, and the Magic have to try to get their juices flowing for a follow-up affair with the capsizing Clippers? I don't know. But really, can anyone make a case for backing the Clippers right now? There's just no chance I play the Magic on letdown, but the Clippers are 1 blowout loss into a 5-game road trip, and have been blown out in 3 straight games, overall. There is no team in the NBA playing worse basketball than the Clipshow right now, so betting on them is damn near impossible. Still, you know damn well they're going to be getting all kinds of line value for that exact reason. I just don't get the feeling this team has any pride, and that's what makes them so tough to get behind. Still, they have my lean. On the total, both teams have been playing to the under: the Magic because they've been defending well, and the Clippers because they can't score. Because I think the Magic take a night off, I lean Over, amazingly.

Sixers @ Pacers - Indiana by 1.5 with a total of 209.5. I don't much care for this one. The Pacers are playing their first game at home off a 4-game road trip, and actually their only game in the span of 6 days. This one has the potential to be a very, very sluggish performance. But I can't quite put my finger on why the Pacers are laying points in this one. I know the Sixers are in a tailspin of their own, but given how awful the Pacers look to the public, it seems like oddsmakers could get away with bringing this thing out at a Pick, or even with the Sixers as a tiny favorite. Shows what I know, I guess. These teams have played twice this season, and the road team has won both games as an underdog, so home court hasn't played much of a role. Philly is coming off grabbing their first win in 6 games, with an impressive road showing in Toronto, and I would argue that was Philadelphia's best game since the All Star Break. Could this be a sign that the Sixers are waking up? I would say I'm far more inclined to take a flier on this one with Philadelphia than expect the Pacers to play like the game means something. Indiana is beyond help, and if they're sluggish at home, Philly is going to out-muscle them. I lean to the Sixers to win this one outright. On the total, we know both of these teams want to run, but this total is pretty high. Still, if Philly is going to win, I can't help but think they're going to do some scoring -I lean Over.

Heat @ Bobcats - Charlotte by 3 with a total of 185. The most important angle in this game is revenge. Make that double-revenge. These two teams are basically equals on the court, but Charlotte has slugged Miami in the mouth twice this season, already. In fact, Miami played its worst game all year here in Charlotte back in January, shooting just 29% from the field in an embarrassing 104-65 loss. There is no way that a proud man like Dwyane Wade doesn't want to come back into Charlotte and show the Bobcats not to mess with his Heat, at least not three times in one season. Both of these teams are starting to warm up a little bit, with Miami winning 3 in a row off a 4-game losing skid, and Charlotte winning 2 straight after dropping 5 of 6. Which team is hotter? Well, that's debatable. The Bobcats got to play a completely wiped out Lakers team that the Heat had worn out with a strong showing the night before, then beat Golden State playing its 4th game in 5 nights. The Heat also beat the Warriors, but when they weren't tired, beat the Lakers when they weren't tired, and then took care of the Hawks, and seem to have sent Atlanta on a short losing skid, as the Hawks dropped another one last night in New York. I would say that the Heat are really something of a skid-starter. Neither team is in a look-ahead, and neither team is in a letdown, so all other angles can be mostly dumped. Based on the fact that I don't think Miami gets embarrassed in Charlotte again, I lean Heat. On the total, there just isn't any value on the Under, even though both of these teams prefer a slow, plodding game. I would avoid this total, since all numbers scream to take the Under, but logic says it's not that easy.

Celtics @ Bucks - Milwaukee by 1 with a total of 188. How about this? Did any of us ever think that the Bucks would be laying points to the Celtics this year? I know I thought Milwaukee was underrated going into the season, but this is a huge surprise, and one that I couldn't be happier about. The Bucks have been the ATS monster of the year, now 40-21 ATS on the season, so really, while we did back the Bucks for 3 or 4 wins in January and February, we could have just bet them blind and cashed big time. Still, it's tough to really know when a team isn't going to relent like Milwaukee has done, and it's truly awesome how well they've played. They've gone 9-0-1 in their last 10 games ATS, and they've won 9 of 10 games straight up, as well. They're coming off a 7-point home win over the Lebron-less Cavs, and I just wonder how long it's going to be before Milwaukee loses all its value. We might be getting close, given that they're a favorite to Boston! The Celtics beat the Bucks by 9 in the teams' only previous meeting this year, failing to cover a home spread of 12.5. Can you even believe that? In December, Boston was 9.5-points Milwaukee's superior, and now we're down to 2. A 7-point swing in the power rankings for these two teams - that is just nuts. Boston is coming off a surprisingly close game with the Wizards on Sunday afternoon, so I just wonder if this is actually something of a slight letdown spot for them. Milwaukee has the revenge, and has the momentum, but we do need to continue to be careful of the Celtics, as they are 22-10 on the road SU, so they're not going to just fold in this one. Still, I lean to the freight train, Milwaukee. This total is pretty darn low, but I actually believe it's close to accurate. It's tough to find an angle, but I would lean Under, since I think both teams are going to be content with a possession-style game.

Jazz @ Bulls - Utah by 3.5 with a total of 207. This is a scary spot for both teams, in my opinion. Chicago has been getting creamed lately, so there's certainly value on their side, but in order for that value to mean anything at all, the team has to be inspired to play basketball and try to win. It just seems like the nagging injuries are mounting for the Bulls, and playing at less than 100% leaves them a buck short just about every night. They've lost 4 in a row, a streak that started with an apathetic effort in Indiana a little over a week ago. They got blasted by the Hawks, Grizzlies and Mavs, and now get to face one of the most intimidating clubs in the NBA, the largely unguardable Utah Jazz. Utah is coming off a beating of the Clippers, and this game kicks off a 4-game road trip, so you have to believe Utah is feeling decent, and probably wants to get the trip started on a strong note. I hate to say it, but I don't really see the motivation in Chicago's eyes lately to play with enough fire to compete. Utah is bigger, stronger, and probably faster, which makes them look like the easy play, and tonight I happen to think that the play that looks too easy is just that: too easy. I don't recommend playing on the Jazz, as there just isn't a great deal of value there, laying points on the road, but right now, Utah is just so much better than Chicago, and Utah is playing for that playoff position, so they want every game, and unless you can find a good reason to back the home dog, I just can't see it. I lean to the SQUARE Jazz on the side. Chicago has allowed over 100 points to their opponents in 7 straight games, which means Utah likely scores 105, but I just don't know if the Bulls can break 100 against Utah's physical defense. I think Chicago tries to get some easy buckets, and I think this total just BARELY slips Over, but not really a good value there either. And as a final note, these teams played in November, and the Jazz beat the hell out of the Bulls, but that was really too long ago to make much of it.

Kings @ Blazers - Portland by 8 with a total of 199. Alright, what do we do with this one? These teams, incredibly, have only met once this year, back in December, and the Blazers beat the Kings by 7 at home to narrowly cover a 6.5-point spread. Now, 3 months later, we have two teams playing pretty solid basketball, and both clubs coming off an ATS loss. These teams have been pretty well-handicapped by the oddsmakers over the last few years, with Sacramento squeezing within the spread about half the time, and Portland beating them senseless the other half. That, unfortunately, makes this one probably one of the worst sides on the board. This spread is certainly coverable by the Blazers, but if the Kings continue to shoot as well as they have been from the field, it's going to be tough to beat them by more than 5 or 6. Portland is certainly a better defensive team than Houston, Dallas or the Thunder (at least lately - normally, OKC is strong on defense), so now we'll see if the Kings can withstand Portland's slow tempo and constant pressure. I don't know if I can stress enough how little I like the side in this game. If I had to make a play, gun to my head situation, I would lean to the Kings to keep sneaking underneath the large spreads they get consistently on the road. On the total, I lean Over, but I happen to think that number is accurate, too. Portland has been clearing 100 regularly on offense, but I believe the tempo is going to force Sacramento just under 100 points, leading to a total very, very close to the posted mark.

Raptors @ Lakers - This line is OFF. Over the last couple weeks, the Lakers have been a downright terrible ATS play. They've gone 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games, and potentially 1-6-1 depending on what line you got on their recent game with the Magic on Sunday. But among the entire NBA, Toronto is about the only team that's a worse bet. The loss of Chris Bosh set this team back substantially, as they've gone 0-6-1 in their last 7 games ATS, and despite the return of Bosh in the last game, Toronto got their clock cleaned by the Sixers, in Canada no less. So, now we have a Lakers team that actually lost to this Raptors club earlier this year, coming home off an 0-3 road trip, playing their first home game in a week, but going right back out on the road for 3 more, and we have to try to figure out if the Lakers are going to cover what's sure to be a relatively hefty spread. The huge problem with this game is that every yahoo out there is going to bet the Lakers under the assumption that they absolutely have to bounce back, and there's zero chance they go on a 4-game losing streak. Well, that's probably true - I don't think the Lakers lose another, but this spread is going to be inflated because of all those reasons. The public expects Kobe to go for 80 again against the Raptors, and add revenge to that, and suddenly the Lakers are likely going to be laying double digits, even though by looking at recent games with common opponents, we can see the Lakers should be just 8-9 point home favorites in this game. I don't think this game is a standard "first game home" spot, since the Lakers play 3 more road games before their next home affair, but I do think that the letdown from Sunday, combined with the cross-country travel and line inflation creates a marginal value for the slumping Raptors. The question is, can they wake up? I hope so, because I lean Toronto. I think the Raptors force the Lakers into a quicker game than they might like, especially because of that letdown, so I lean Over on the total.

Trend Report - Tuesday
By Ed Meyer

Heat at Bobcats – The Heat are 0-10 ATS (-11.1 ppg) since January 30, 2009 with at least one day of rest after a win in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers.The Heat are 0-7 ATS (-8.4 ppg) since April 16, 2007 off a win as a home favorite in which they trailed at the end of the third quarter. The Heat are 6-0 ATS (7.0 ppg) since February 29, 2008 on the road when seeking revenge for a loss in which they had no rest. The Bobcats are 8-0 ATS (8.7 ppg) since February 20, 2007 at home with at least one day of rest after a double digit home win in which they allowed less than 40% from the field.

Celtics at Bucks – The Celtics are 7-0-1 ATS (4.1 ppg) since May 05, 2003 on the road after a home win in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points lower than their season-to-date average. The Bucks are 12-0-1 ATS (9.1 ppg) since January 05, 2010 before playing at home. The Bucks are 0-5-1 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since April 19, 2005 at home after a game in which they were whistled for fewer than 15 personal fouls.

Jazz at Bulls – The Jazz are 6-0-2 ATS (3.5 ppg) since April 23, 2009 with at least one day of rest after a game in which they had at least 12 steals. The Bulls are 8-0 ATS (9.8 ppg) since December 04, 1999 after a home loss against the Mavericks. The Bulls are 8-0 ATS (6.9 ppg) since January 05, 2002 at home after a loss in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers.

Raptors at Lakers – The Raptors are 0-7 ATS (-13.0 ppg) since November 12, 2006 on the road with at least one day of rest after a home loss in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Raptors are 0-6 ATS (-6.5 ppg) since January 11, 2010 after a loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. The Lakers are 0-8 ATS (-8.1 ppg) since March 28, 2004 at home when seeking revenge for a loss as a road favorite in which they led by double digits. The Lakers are 9-0-1 ATS (12.7 ppg) since April 09, 2009 at home when facing a team they lost to as a favorite in their previous same-season match-up. Editor's Note: Ed Meyer offers up daily pro basketball selections on VegasInsider.com. Check out his winners daily right here. Click to win!

Clippers at Magic – The Clippers are 6-0 ATS (9.9 ppg) since March 30, 1997 when facing a non-conference team they lost to as a home dog by double digits in their first match-up of the season. The Magic are 7-0 ATS (8.1 ppg) since December 22, 2008 at home with at most one day of rest after a game at home after a win in which they made fewer baskets than their opponent. The Magic are 6-0 ATS (5.7 ppg) since January 02, 2007 versus the Clippers.

76ers at Pacers – The Sixdrs are 9-0 ATS (7.8 ppg) since March 03, 2008 on the road with at least one day of rest after a game on the road in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Sixers are 0-7 ATS (-8.5 ppg) since November 07, 2006 with at most one day of rest after a win in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. The Pacers are 6-0 ATS (8.2 ppg) since January 22, 2010 when they allowed one-hundred-plus points for two straight games.

Kings at Trailblazers – The Trailblazers are 0-8 ATS (-12.1 ppg) since February 13, 2003 at home with at most one day of rest off a loss that broke at least a three-game winning streak. The Trailblazers are 0-7 ATS (-10.1 ppg) since March 30, 2005 at home with at least one day of rest after a loss in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Kings are 7-0 ATS (7.6 ppg) since January 24, 2009 on the road after a home loss in which their DPS was positive.

Rockets at Wizards – The Rockets are 8-0 ATS (12.1 ppg) since March 29, 2006 off an overtime loss. The Wizards are 0-6-1 ATS (-5.7 ppg) since March 28, 2007 at home off a loss in which they led at the end of each of the first three quarters.

Tips and Trends

Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks

Celtics : Boston has won 4 consecutive games SU, and are 11-5 SU to start the 2nd half of the season. A veteran team like Boston typically makes a 2nd half surge, and that's exactly the case with this Celtics squad. Boston is 40-21 SU this season, placing them 3rd in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics have won 7 of the past 8 contests SU with Milwaukee, including their only meeting this season. Boston is 22-10 SU and 17-15 ATS on the road this season. The Celtics are 6-5 ATS as the listed underdog this season, including a perfect 3-0 ATS as a 3 point underdog or less. Boston has held their past 3 opponents in the 80's, and for the season only allow 93.8 PPG. The Celtics not only allow the fewest PPG in the NBA, but they are also 6th in the NBA in holding their opponents to only 44.5% from the field. The entire starting 5 for Boston averages double digits in PTS this season. F Paul Pierce leads the team in scoring with 17.7 PPG this season. PG Rajon Rondo averages 14.1 PPG and a team high 9.9 APG for the Celtics this season.

Celtics are 4-1 ATS last 5 road games.
Under is 4-1 last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Key Injuries - None.

PROJECTED SCORE: 90 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

Bucks (-1, O/U 188): Quite simply, Milwaukee is the hottest team in the entire NBA right now. Milwaukee has won 9 of their past 10 games SU. The Bucks have also won 10 consecutive games ATS, and 21 of their past 24 games ATS. The Bucks are now at 33-29 SU for the season, good enough for 5th place in the Eastern Conference playoff standings. Milwaukee is also an unbelievable 41-21 ATS this season. Milwaukee has been playing world class defense of late, holding 15 of their past 18 opponents under 100 PTS in regulation play. The Bucks only allow 96.5 PPG this entire season, 7th best in the NBA. Offensively, Milwaukee has scored 100 PTS or more in 5 of their past 7 games. 3 different Bucks players average double digits in PTS this season. F John Salmons has proved to be an excellent pickup for the Bucks, as he's averaging 19 PPG in his 10 games thus far. C Andrew Bogut is averaging a double double this season, 16 PPG and 10.3 RPG. Milwaukee is 20-9 SU and 19-9-1 ATS in home games this season. Milwaukee is 6-2 ATS as a home favorite of 3 PTS or less this season. The Bucks are 11-1 ATS against the Atlantic division this season.

Bucks are 8-2 ATS last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 7-2 last 9 games as a home favorite.

Key Injuries - G Michael Redd (knee) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 89