Boston (50-30, 33-45-2 ATS) at Chicago (39-41, 40-38-2 ATS)
The Bulls look to take another step closer to securing a second straight playoff berth and fifth in the last six years when they host the Celtics at the United Center.
Chicago entered Sunday’s game in Toronto tied with the Raptors for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, but departed Canada with a one-game lead in the standings after crushing the Raptors 104-88 as a 2½-point road favorite. Then with the Bulls taking Monday off, the Raptors went to Detroit and pounded the Pistons 111-97 to pull within a half-game of Chicago. Both teams finish the season Wednesday, with the Bulls playing at Charlotte and the Raptors hosting New York, and if they finish with the same record, Toronto would get the playoff nod based on winning the season series.
The Bulls have alternated SU wins and losses in their last five games, but they’re 8-4 in their last 12 following an ill-timed 10-game losing streak. Also, they snapped a three-game ATS slide with Sunday’s blowout win in Toronto. Chicago has also alternated SU wins and losses in its last eight home games, but is still just 4-8 SU and ATS in its last 12 at the United Center.
Boston is coming off Saturday’s big 105-90 trouncing of the Bucks, easily covering as a two-point road underdog just 24 hours after getting humiliated at home by the lowly Wizards (106-96 loss). The Celtics, who won in Milwaukee without All-Star Kevin Garnett (rest), are just 3-5 SU in their last eight games and 3-6 ATS in the last nine, and they’re locked in a battle with Atlanta for the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference, trailing the Hawks by 1½ games.
Boston now sports a better record on the road (26-14) than at home (24-16), and the C’s have been miles better covering pointspreads on the highway (21-18-1 ATS) than in Beantown (12-27-1 ATS).
These teams played a thrilling opening-round series in last year’s playoffs, with the top-seeded Celtics barely holding off No. 8 seed Chicago in seven games (3-3-1 ATS). Boston then took the first two meetings this year (118-90 as an 11½-point home favorite; 106-80 as a 9½-point road chalk), but the Bulls scored their own double-digit rout in the most recent battle on Jan. 14 (96-83 as a 6½-point road underdog).
Since the start of last year’s playoff series, the visitor is 7-2-1 ATS in the 10 head-to-head matchups and Boston is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four trips to the Windy City. Also, the underdog is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11.
Boston has cashed in five of seven against the Eastern Conference and is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven versus the Central Division, but it is also 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven Tuesday contests, 0-5 in its last five after SU win and 0-4 ATS in its last four after a spread-cover. Meanwhile, Chicago has covered in six of seven against the Atlantic Division and 22 of 31 after an ATS triumph.
Chicago is on “under” runs of 9-4 overall, 6-2 at home, 8-3 against the Eastern Conference, 5-2 after a day off and 36-15 following a double-digit victory. However, the Celtics carry “over” trends of 6-1 overall, 4-1 against the Eastern Conference, 5-0 versus Central Division competition and 20-8-1 when playing on two days’ rest, though the under is 10-3 in their last 13 after a SU win and 5-2 in their last seven on Tuesday.
Finally, these teams have topped the total in nine of the past 12 meetings overall, but seven of the last 10 at the United Center have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Denver (53-28, 35-40-6 ATS) at Phoenix (52-28, 46-33-1 ATS)
Two of the four squads locked in a dogfight in the Western Conference playoff standings duke it out in the desert as the Nuggets visit the Suns at U.S. Airways Arena.
Denver moved a half-game ahead of Utah and Phoenix into the No. 3 spot with Monday’s 123-101 victory over Memphis, easily cashing as an 11-point home favorite. But with the Mavericks winning easily at the Clippers on Monday, Dallas still holds a one-game advantage over the Nuggets for the coveted No. 2 seed in the West. Utah (which plays at Golden State tonight) and Phoenix are tied for fourth in the playoff pecking order, a half-game behind the Nuggets and 1½ games back of the Mavs.
With Monday’s win over the Grizzlies, Denver improved to 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in its last seven games, which comes on the heels of a 1-5 and 0-8-1 ATS slump. The normally high scoring Nuggets had been held under triple digits in four straight games, eight of nine and 11 of 13 prior to Monday’s outburst. Also, Denver has lost five of its last seven on the highway (1-5-1 ATS), averaging just 96.8 ppg in the last five.
Phoenix is coming off Sunday’s 116-106 win over Houston, barely cashing as a nine-point home favorite despite trailing by a point with less than three minutes to play. The Suns are scorching hot right now, going 26-7 SU and 23-9-1 ATS since Jan. 28, including 12-2 in the last 14 (9-4-1 ATS). They’ve also won seven straight home games (6-0-1 ATS, all as a favorite). For the season, Phoenix is 31-9 SU and 24-15-1 ATS at U.S. Airways Center.
Denver took the first meeting this season 105-99, but failed to cover as a nine-point underdog. Since then, the Suns have ripped off back-to-back blowout wins over the Nuggets, rolling 109-97 as a 5½-point road ‘dog on Feb. 3 and 101-85 as a 2½-point home chalk on March 1.
The host has dominated this rivalry, winning 10 of the last 11 meetings and cashing in 11 of the last 14. Phoenix has gotten the money in all three matchups this year and is 6-1 ATS in the last seven series clashes in the desert. Also, the favorite has covered the number eight times in the last 11 battles.
The Nuggets are 5-1-3 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog of five to 10½ points, but otherwise they’re in ATS funks of 4-10-1 overall, 1-5-1 on the road, 1-3-2 overall as a ‘dog (all on the road), 2-7-1 when playing on back-to-back nights and 1-4 on Tuesday. Conversely, Phoenix is on pointspread tears of 23-9-1 overall, 6-0-1 at home, 12-3-1 as a home chalk, 8-0-1 when laying five to 10½ points at home, 17-5-1 as a favorite regardless of venue, 15-5-1 when coming back from a day off and 17-7-1 versus Western Conference foes.
It’s been all “unders” for the Nuggets recently, including 4-1 overall, 4-0 on the road, 4-1 against the Western Conference, 4-0 versus the Pacific Division, 37-16 as an underdog and 35-17 as a road pup. Phoenix is also on “under” streaks of 3-1-1 overall, 4-0 against winning teams, 5-2 versus the Western Conference, 4-0 against the Northwest Division and 5-1 when playing after a day off.
Finally, these teams have stayed low in four straight meetings following a 5-1 “over” surge in the rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX and UNDER
NBA RoundUp For 4/13
By Dan Bebe
Celtics @ Bulls - This line is OFF. Big game, here. Huge game for Chicago, not that important for Boston, really. There's almost no chance the Celtics play their normal rotation of guys, though this game could have some significant impact on how the bottom of the East playoffs shakes out. The Bulls are coming off a huge win in Toronto, so their confidence is high. I suppose the concern is that to back the Bulls (once the line comes out), we're definitely going to have to pay a premium because they're in the "must-win" situation. Obviously, I'm going to be looking for reasons to get on Chicago, but it's not a shoe-in, not by any stretch. Lean to the surging Derrick Roses...I mean...the Bulls. Also, lean to the Over, as Boston's defense has been lacking down the stretch due to waning focus.
Jazz @ Warriors - Utah by 7.5 with a total of 232.5. These teams played fairly recently in Utah, and the Jazz tore the Warriors apart, scoring on just about every possession. I think folks will be lulled into a false sense of security with Utah, here, when they look back at that previous meeting. Still, the Jazz are an extremely physical team, which is the one thing the the Warriors can't handle. Golden State is coming off an impressive come-from-behind victory over the Thunder at home, so we know they're still playing hard, but I just get the feeling this line is fairly accurate. Maybe a tiny bit of line value on the Warriors' side, but with every game so meaningful at the top of the West's playoff race, it's tough to see the Jazz letting this one slip through their fingers. No real lean on the side, since both sides have merit, and no real lean on the total. This number looks very high, but if the Jazz just decide to outscore the Warriors, we could get there.
Nuggets @ Suns - Phoenix by 6 with a total of 217. This will be Phoenix's game to win or lose. The Suns are playing good ball down the stretch, while the Nuggets continue to be a little hit-or-miss with their level of intensity. The return of Kenyon Martin should certainly help, but there's no way he's at full strength. Denver is also coming off a home game with Memphis last night, and we've seen how they tend to slack off in back-to-backs, especially on the defensive end. That's just not going to get it done in a tough game with Phoenix. These two teams are hugely public clubs, and betting "overs" is not a long term winning proposition. We need to pick our spots on the "unders", but I have a feeling this game ends up being played with significant implications. I lean to Phoenix, and I lean to the Under.
Kings @ Lakers - Los Angeles by 9.5 with a total of 199.5. I honestly don't know who's going to play in this one, and that's a great reason to knock this game off your card. I would guess that someone like Gasol could use a day off, and perhaps Kobe decides to play the first half. Too many question marks, in my opinion. I think you have to look at the Kings, since this season-ender has all the makings of a rag-tag style game with young guys getting a ton of run (especially in the second half). The Kings played their home finale last night against the Rockets, so they're basically done for the year, and the Lakers have their eye on the playoffs. Complete and utter PASS on the side, and I'd look at the Under, since I'm guessing the guys we see in this one won't be very strong outside shooters.
Trend Report - Tuesday
By Ed Meyer
Celtics at Bulls – The Celtics are 0-8 ATS (-6.4 ppg) since February 25, 2009 after a double digit road win in which they allowed less than 40% from the field. The Celtics are 6-0 ATS (11.3 ppg) since April 16, 2008 after a road win in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted. The Bulls are 8-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) since January 17, 1997 at home with at most one day of rest after a game on the road in which they were whistled for fewer than 15 personal fouls.
Kings at Lakers – The Kings are 5-0 ATS (4.7 ppg) since March 03, 2010 on the road when facing a team they lost to in their previous same-season match-up. The Lakers are 0-7 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since February 13, 2007 with at most one day of rest after a loss in which they shot at least twenty three-pointers and made less than a 25% of them. The Lakers are 0-6 ATS (-10.1 ppg) since April 21, 2009 at home and when facing a team they beat in their previous two match-ups of the season.
Nuggets at Suns – The Nuggets are 8-0 ATS (12.1 ppg) since February 27, 2009 when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss. The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS (8.7 ppg) since January 23, 2005 after a double digit home win against the Grizzlies.
Jazz at Warriors – The League is 9-0 ATS (9.9 ppg) since November 18, 2008 on the road with two or more days of rest after a double digit win in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Jazz are 0-6 ATS (-9.8 ppg) since March 01, 2010 with at least one day of rest after a win in which they had at least thirty assists. The Warriors are 6-0 ATS (6.0 ppg) since February 27, 2010 at home when facing a team they lost to on the road in their previous same-season match-up. The Warriors are 0-6 ATS (-8.7 ppg) since November 10, 2003 at home after a game at home in which they had at least 15 fewer shot attempts than their opponent.