Game of the day: Thunder at Lakers Betting Preview
By MARC LAWRENCE
Game 2 of the Western Conference playoff series between the Lakers and the Thunder tips off at the Staples Center in Los Angeles Tuesday night. Let’s take a look at how the two teams match up.
Size matters
The Lakers managed an 87-79 victory over a young and inexperienced Oklahoma City squad in Game 1 of this series, while capitalizing on their height and length advantage over the smaller Thunder.
With 7-foot-2 center Andrew Bynum back in the Lakers’ lineup for the first time since Mar. 19, Los Angeles was able to take advantage of its inside presence early in the game with high percentage looks from down low.
Bynum showed little rust with 13 points, 12 rebounds and four blocked shots in 30 minutes of work. He was aggressive, reminiscent of dominant Lakers centers in the past (i.e. - Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Shaquille O’Neal).
Along with fellow 7-footer Pau Gasol, the Lakers frontline features skill, energy and athletic ability perhaps unsurpassed in the league.
"Energy, size, intimidation and a lot of good rebounding," is how Gasol assessed Bynum's return.
The Thunder noticed.
"With Bynum and Gasol inside, it makes it tough to go to the basket," said Thunder guard Thabo Sefolosha.
By the end of the game, though, the Lakers began settling for outside shots in one-and-done offensive sets, allowing for transition sets for Oklahoma City. Rest assured Lakers coach Phil Jackson took notice of the game’s dichotomy.
Thunder and lightning
For a franchise making its first playoff appearance since 2005, when they last resided in Seattle, the Thunder needed only two years to make it to the post-season after making the move to Oklahoma.
Thanks to judicious player personnel moves and draft choices, Oklahoma City has built a young, athletic team gifted with speed and talented players in short order.
They play scrappy defense (No. 11 in the league this season, allowing 98.0 PPG) and, most important of all, play a selfless style of basketball. Although Kevin Durant is a superstar, you would never know it.
While they appeared unsure and overmatched at times in Sunday’s loss to the defending champs, OKC coach Scott Brooks was not discouraged by the defeat.
“We didn't play well. The Lakers are a good team. They're so long. But I'm encouraged that we came out and competed. You never know what to expect. It's a lot of our first times playing in the playoffs. Nervous, I didn't see that. I saw a team that played a lot of effort," said Brooks.
Kobe steak
Last year’s MVP Kobe Bryant returned to the Lakers lineup Sunday after missing the final two games of the regular season. He was 6-for-19 from the field and 7-for12 for the stripe, good for 21 points.
Not 100 percent fit, Bryant was impressed by the speed of the Thunder.
"They all run like deers." Bryant said when asked about Oklahoma City's young players.
Kobe missed nine games this season. In those contests, the Lakers were 6-3 straight up (SU) and 5-4 against the spread (ATS), including 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in non-division games. With Bryant in the lineup, Los Angeles is 52-22 SU and 30-43-1 ATS this season.
Durant Durant
Hungry like the wolf? That would be OKC star forward Durant - especially after a ‘disappointing’ 24-point performance against the Lakers in Game 1.
The only matchup the Thunder holds an edge over the defending champions is at the small forward position, where MVP nominee Durant excels over Ron Artest.
Artest held Durant to 7-of-24 from the floor, including 1-of-8 from beyond the arc. Many feel it’s only a matter of time before Durantula puts the bite on Ron-Ron.
That’s because prior to Sunday’s effort, Durant ended the season on a run of seven straight games in which he tallied 30 or more points, including three in which he scored 40-plus.
KD has been held under 25 points only nine times this campaign. He bounced back to average 32.3 points per game in the next contest.
If OKC is going to upset the Lakers in this first-round playoff, Durant is going to have to reclaim his shooting stroke faster than Bryant does.
Durant is excited about his chances tonight.
"He plays physical every time we go at it," he said of Artest. "I got some great opportunities to make shots and they didn't fall. It's going to be like that all series, I'm looking forward to it."
Trendencies
Oklahoma City is 18-7 SU and 21-4 ATS in games off a SU and ATS loss this season.
Los Angeles is 7-4 SU and 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a host in this series when facing same season revenge.
Lakers coach Jackson is 44-0 in a playoff series after winning Game 1.
Early Action Tips
By Chris David
The higher seeds in the Eastern Conference have lived up to the hype so far, posting a 5-0 record through first round of the NBA playoffs. Can any of the underdogs show up in the East or should we already start looking ahead to the conference semifinals? We’ll find out on Tuesday when Atlanta and Boston look to build 2-0 leads over Milwaukee and Miami respectively.
Let’s take a closer look at the two early games in the East for Tuesday.
Milwaukee at Atlanta
Atlanta opened up its playoff campaign last Saturday with a solid 102-92 home victory over Milwaukee in Game 1. The Hawks came out firing in the first half and wound up building a 22-point lead (62-40) after the first 24 minutes. The Bucks head coach Scott Skiles and his troops didn’t go away quietly, outscoring the Hawks 30-19 in the third stanza but they couldn’t turn the corner. Milwaukee failed to cover as an 8 ½-point underdog and the combined 194 points slipped ‘over’ the closing number of 186 ½ points.
The win for Atlanta was its 13th straight at Philips Arena. Mike Woodson’s team has gone 8-5 against the spread during this streak, and the ‘over’ has also produced an 8-5 record.
Despite the hot streak and impressive performance in Game 1, the number on second-installment for Tuesday has been lowered. Oddsmakers opened the Hawks as 7 ½-point favorites and the total jumped a couple points to 189.
Milwaukee did get an amazing effort in the setback from rookie Brandon Jennings, who posted 34 points on 14-of-25 shots from the field. If you take away the point guard’s production, the team only connected on 40 percent of their shots. The loss of center Andrew Bogut (elbow) was evident on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. The Bucks’ starting frontcourt put up 16 points and they lost the battle on the boards (35-40), plus the Hawks racked up 11 blocks as well. The club is 1-3 in the last four games without Bogut and the one victory could be deemed meaningless (at Boston) since backups earned major minutes on the last day of the regular season.
Joe Johnson (22 points) led six Hawk players in double figures, and Jamal Crawford added 17 points off the bench in his first ever playoff appearance. Atlanta shot 55 percent (6-of-11) from 3-point land but only earned 19 trips to the free-throw line, converting 14 attempts.
Atlanta’s success at home (35-7 SU, 26-16 ATS) is nothing new for this team, especially in its last two opening playoff rounds. In the past two postseasons, the Hawks have gone 6-1 both SU and ATS against the Heat and Celtics. Including Saturday, that number is now 7-1 in the last eight and the ‘over’ is 6-2 over the span.
If the trends stay true, most would expect another Hawk win and cover Tuesday. However, you might want to fade the ATL when it visits Wisconsin. Atlanta is 1-7 both SU and ATS in its last eight postseason games on the road, plus its 19-22 SU and 22-18 ATS ledger away from home this year is disappointing for a No. 3 seed.
For whatever reason, the NBA won’t have these teams meet again until Saturday when Game 3 takes place from the Bradley Center. In case you’re wondering, the Bucks (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) have struggled with three days of rest or more, while the Hawks (5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS) have thrived. Also, Milwaukee (3-1) and Atlanta (5-1) have both watched the ‘over’ go a combined 8-1 in similar rest scenarios.
Tip-off for this contest is slated for 7:05 p.m. EDT, with NBATV providing coverage.
Miami at Boston
Of all the opening round series that was expected to be the most competitive, a lot of handicappers had their pulse on this matchup and they were right. Boston captured an 85-76 win over Miami in Game 2 but the opener was much tighter than the final score. The Heat led 44-41 at the half and they started the third quarter on fire too, opening up a 14-point lead (61-47) midway through the third. Unfortunately for Miami backers grabbing four points on the road, the offense went into hiding. The team scored 15 points in the final 19 minutes of the game, six of them coming from Dwayne Wade.
Wade did finish with 26 points, eight rebounds and six assists but the rest of the supporting cast failed to show up. Jermaine O’Neal (3-of-14) and Michael Beasley (3-of-8) couldn’t muster up any offense for the Heat, who shot 39.7 percent from the field as a team.
Even though Boston stole a win and cover in Game 1, Doc Rivers’ club will have to step up on Tuesday without Kevin Garnett, who was suspended for one game after he elbowed the Heat’s Quentin Richardson late in the game. The All-Star lost his cool as Paul Pierce fell down in front of Miami’s bench and was caught tossing a cheap shot. Pierce’s shoulder was banged up in the win, but he’s listed as ‘probable’ for Game 2.
Playing without KG is nothing new for the Celtics, who advanced to the Eastern Conference semifinals last year without the All-Star. During the regular season, Garnett missed 12 games and Boston struggled to a 5-7 record both SU and ATS without his duties, but one of those wins did come against Miami (112-106 OT). The ‘over’ went 8-4 in those games and that could be the look in Game 2. If you recall last year’s opening round series against Boston, the Bulls were able to score at will without KG in the middle, and the ‘over’ posted a 6-1 mark in that best-of-seven series. Rivers will most likely start Rasheed Wallace in his absence, plus look for Glenn Davis to pick up his minutes as well.
The Celtics were favored by 4 1/2-points in Game 1 and the number for Tuesday has dropped to 1 ½ points. The total also fell from 184 to 179. Are the moves based on the KG suspension, Miami’s urgency, Boston’s inconsistent record at home? You could answer “Yes” to all three of those questions and point to other factors too. As bad as Miami played over the final stretch in Game 1, they still only lost by nine points.
While the point-spread leans toward the Heat, it’s hard to ignore that Boston is still 12-1 in its last 13 encounters versus Miami, and the Celtics are 9-4 ATS during this span.
Following this contest, the two clubs will tangle in South Beach for Game 3 on Friday and Game 4 on Sunday.
TNT will offer up national coverage of this contest at 8:05 p.m.
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Late Tuesday Tips
By Kevin Rogers
Editor's Note: Kevin Rogers is on fire this postseason, going 2-0 after the Hawks and Blazers cashed in their series openers! His picks can be purchased on VegasInsider.com Click to win!
The favorites have ruled the first two days of the NBA playoffs, as the lone underdog to cash outright is Portland. The Blazers look for a 2-0 series advantage heading back to the Rose Garden, while the Suns try for a split in the Valley. Elsewhere, the Thunder looks to climb out of a 1-0 hole against the defending champion Lakers.
Blazers at Suns - 10:05 PM EST
Portland found a way to capture the opening game without Brandon Roy by upending Phoenix, 105-100 as 8 ½-point underdogs. The Blazers stayed within striking distance the entire game, as Nate McMillan's team never trailed by more than five points. The Suns drilled 11 treys, but Andre Miller, Nicholas Batum, and Jerryd Bayless combined for 67 points in the win.
The Blazers have had the Suns' number this season, beating Phoenix three of four times, including twice without Roy. Now, the Suns try to bounce back from their first home loss since a 102-96 setback to the Lakers on March 12. Phoenix is 5-4 ATS this season off a home defeat, but 2-4 ATS when laying at least 8 ½ points in this situation.
The 'over' has now hit in four of Phoenix's last five home games following Sunday's loss. Some bettors may have received a 'push' if they waited until game-time when the total closed at 205. Many 'under' players weren't pleased with the final quarter of Game 1 after the Blazers outscored the Suns, 35-28, including 24 combined points in the last three minutes. The 'under' has been cashed in five of the previous eight road contests for Portland, while allowing 100 points or less six times in this span.
Portland is a solid 11-4 SU and 10-3 ATS on the road off a road victory, including a 6-2 ATS mark as an underdog. The Suns have rebounded nicely off a SU loss, going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS the last eight games off a defeat.
Phoenix is listed as an 8½-point favorite in most spots, while the total is set at 204½.
Thunder at Lakers - 10:35 PM EST
The season's big storyline in the NBA is the surging Oklahoma City Thunder and its 50-win campaign. Now, OKC tries to avoid falling down 0-2 following Sunday's 87-79 loss to the Lakers. The 79 points is the lowest scored by the Thunder since a 74-point spot in the third game of the season against the Blazers.
The strong defensive effort by the Lakers was the fourth time the Purple and Gold has limited an opponent to below 80 points this season. Scoring champion Kevin Durant was held to 7-24 shooting from the floor, including 1-8 from three-point range. Durant did score 24 points, but the Thunder shot a dismal 40% from the field. The Lakers managed a cover as 7½-point favorites, only the second time in five meetings this season L.A. has cashed a ticket against Oklahoma City.
Phil Jackson's squad wasn't particularly pretty from the floor either, shooting 41% in the Game 1 victory. The return of center Andrew Bynum obviously gave the Lakers a boost in the middle with 13 points and 12 rebounds, while Kobe Bryant paced L.A. with a team-high 21 points. The Thunder outscored the Lakers by six points in the final three quarters as OKC needs a better first quarter effort in Game 2 after falling behind 27-13 in the series opener.
Despite not covering, the Thunder is still one of the best road underdogs in the league, going 18-9 ATS when receiving points away the Ford Center. Oklahoma City is a sterling 9-3 ATS as a road 'dog off a loss, while going 8-4 to the 'over.' The only problem in this spot is the Thunder has dropped four consecutive games SU, falling to the Mavs, Cavs, Spurs, and Blazers.
The Lakers are just 2-8-1 ATS since the start of February as a home favorite off a win, including 1-4-1 ATS as a single-digit favorite. The 'under' has turned into a profitable play recently at Staples Center, as six of the last seven at home have hit the 'under' for Los Angeles.
L.A. is currently listed as a 6½-point favorite at many sportsbooks, while the total is set at 189½.
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NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Milwaukee (0-1 SU and ATS) at Atlanta (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Hawks, winners of five in a row, look to take a 2-0 lead in this best-of-7 first-round series when they once again host the Bucks at Philips Arena.
Atlanta had little trouble Saturday in the series opener, leading by 23 points at halftime and coasting to a 102-92 victory as an 8½-point home favorite. The Hawks shot a solid 53.9 percent from the floor (41 of 76), hitting 6 of 11 from three-point range (54.5 percent), and six players scored in double figures, paced by Joe Johnson’s 22 points. Atlanta has covered in four straight during its five-game winning streak.
Milwaukee has now dropped three of its last four SU and ATS, though it led the league in the regular season with a 52-28-2 ATS record. The Bucks shot a respectable 45.1 percent in Game 1 (37 of 82), but were just 6 of 20 from long distance (30 percent), with rookie Brandon Jennings the only fully effective scorer (34 points, 14 of 25 from the field, 4 of 6 from three-point range).
The Bucks are 18-24 SU on the road this year – despite averaging almost exactly as many points as they allow (95.4-95.5) – but they are 28-13-1 ATS in those contests. Atlanta is 35-7 SU (26-16 ATS) at Philips Arena, outscoring visitors by nearly nine points per game (104.5-95.9).
Atlanta is 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five meetings with Milwaukee, and the chalk is on a 10-3-1 ATS tear in the last 14 contests between these two. The Hawks’ Game 1 win ended a 4-0 ATS surge by the road team in this rivalry, and the SU winner is on a 12-3-1 ATS roll. Also, in Atlanta’s last 19 playoff tilts, the SU winner is a superb 18-0-1 ATS.
The Hawks are on pointspread runs of 6-2 at home, 8-1 against the Central Division, 8-1 against winning teams, 11-2 following a SU win, 5-1 after a spread-cover and 4-1 in first-round playoff games. The Bucks are on a 1-7-1 ATS dive in first-round playoff games, but are otherwise on a slew of pointspread upswings, including 32-11-2 overall, 21-6-1 on the road, 34-16-2 in the Eastern Conference and 13-4 as an underdog..
The total has gone high in nine straight meetings overall between these two teams and five in a row in Atlanta, with Saturday’s game clearing the 186½-point price. Atlanta is also on “over” runs of 15-3 after a SU win, 5-1 after two days off and 5-1 against winning teams, but the under is 5-2 in the Hawks’ last seven against the Central Division.
Milwaukee is on “over” stretches of 5-1 overall, 8-0 against winning teams, 13-3-2 in first-round playoff games and 5-0 as a playoff pup, though the under is 9-4 in the Bucks’ last 13 against the Southeast Division and 5-2 with Milwaukee coming off a two-day break.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and OVER
Miami (0-1 SU and ATS) at Boston (1-0 SU and ATS)
In a series quickly ripe with animosity that has already led to one suspension, the Heat will try to bounce back from their Game 1 loss when they face the Celtics at the TD Garden.
Miami, which entered the postseason on an 18-4 tear (13-8-1 ATS), including an eight-game road winning streak, and appeared prime for an upset in the series opener Saturday, taking a 14-point lead midway through the third quarter. But the Heat collapsed from there and lost 85-76 as a 4½-point road underdog, halting a 12-1 SU roll (8-4-1 ATS). Miami hit just 31 of 78 shots (39.7 percent), including 4 of 17 from three-point range (23.5 percent). Dwyane Wade led all scorers with 26 points, but he was 0-for-4 from long distance.
Boston snapped a 3-7 SU and ATS purge with the Game 1 victory, outscoring Miami 21-10 in the fourth quarter to complete the comeback. Nobody scored more than 16 points, but four players reached double figures – compared with two for the Heat – and the C’s had a huge edge at the free-throw line, hitting 22 of 28, while Miami had just 13 attempts and made 10.
Paul Pierce led the Celts with 16 points, and Kevin Garnett had 15 points and nine rebounds, but he won’t be around for Game 2. Garnett got into a late-game skirmish with Quentin Richardson, throwing an elbow that led to a one-game suspension.
Despite seeing their eight-game road winning streak halted in Game 1, the Heat are still 23-19 SU (24-18 ATS) as a visitor this year. The Celtics, meanwhile, are 25-17 SU at home, but remain a meager 13-28-1 ATS at the Garden.
Boston has owned this rivalry lately, winning six in a row (4-2 ATS) and 12 of the last 13 (9-4 ATS). The favorite has covered in nine of the last 11 meetings, but the road team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 contests. The SU winner has covered the number in nine of the last 11 clashes. Also, the SU winner is on an 8-0 ATS roll in Miami’s last eight postseason affairs and is 11-3-1 ATS in Boston’s last 15 playoff outings.
The Heat are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 opening-round playoff games and are in a 1-5-1 ATS funk as a postseason ‘dog, but they also sport several positive ATS streaks, including 7-2 on the highway and 8-4 as an underdog. The Celts are on ATS slides of 4-8 overall, 21-44-1 at home, 2-6 as a favorite, 21-42 as a home chalk, 0-6 after a SU win and 0-5 after a spread-cover, though they also carry ATS upswings of 16-7 as a favorite of less than five points and 4-1-1 in first-round playoff games.
Miami is on “under” surges of 12-4-2 on the road, 9-0 when going on two days’ rest, 9-2-1 as a road pup and 5-1 in first-round playoff games. However, the over has hit in four of the Heat’s last six overall and five of its last seven against winning teams. Boston carries “over” streaks of 7-3 overall, 5-1 at home, 4-1 in first-round playoff games, but the under has been the play in four of its last five after a SU win and nine of its last 12 after a spread-cover.
In addition, the total has cleared the posted price in five of the last seven meetings between these rivals, but the under is on a 12-4-1 run in the last 17 matchups in Beantown.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Oklahoma City (0-1 SU and ATS) at L.A. Lakers (1-0 SU and ATS)
The Lakers began their quest for a second straight NBA title with a comfortable win over the Thunder on Sunday and now will try to take a 2-0 lead in this best-of-7 opening round Western Conference series inside the Staples Center.
Defense keyed L.A.’s 87-79 win in Game 1 as it narrowly cashed as 7½-point favorites. The Lakers were able to hold regular-season scoring champion Kevin Durant to just 7-for-24 shooting, even though he ended up with 24 points, hitting 9-for-11 from the free-throw line. Los Angeles never trailed in the game, opening with a 27-13 first quarter. Kobe Bryant finished with 21 points while Pau Gasol chipped in 19 points and 13 rebounds.
Lakers coach Phil Jackson has guided his teams to 44 series victories in as many tries after winning Game 1.
Oklahoma City had the biggest one-season turnaround in NBA history, thanks to Durant’s 30.1 points and 7.6 rebounds per contest. He had 30 points or more in each of the final seven regular-season games, hitting the 40-point mark in three of those seven. However, the Thunder enter Game 2 having dropped five of their last seven overall (3-4 ATS).
The top seed in the Western Conference, the Lakers were just 3-6 (2-7 ATS) to close the regular season with Bryant missing several meaningless games with a variety of nagging injuries. They ended a three-game ATS drought with Sunday’s narrow spread-cover.
Oklahoma City was 23-18 (26-15 ATS) on the highway in the regular season, but including Sunday it has now lost four straight roadies (1-3 ATS). Los Angeles is now 35-7 inside Staples Center, but just 17-23-2 ATS.
Sunday was the Thunder’s first playoff game since 2005 when the franchise was the Seattle SuperSonics and they reached the Western Conference semifinals, losing to the Spurs 4-2 (3-3 ATS). The Lakers’ march to the title last season included series wins of 4-1 (2-3 ATS) over the Jazz, 4-3 (SU and ATS) over the Rockets, 4-2 (3-3 ATS) over the Nuggets and 4-1 (SU and ATS) over the Magic in the NBA Finals. L.A. has reached the postseason five straight times and 15 times in the last 16 years.
The Lakers have won 13 of the last 14 (6-8 ATS) in this rivalry. The Thunder cashed in three of four regular-season meetings and they’re still 5-3-1 ATS in their last nine visits to the Staples Center.
Oklahoma City is on several positive ATS runs, including 13-4 as a ‘dog of five to 10½ points, 8-4 as a road ‘dog, 20-9 on the road against teams with a winning home record, 18-9 against winning teams and 37-17-1 on Tuesday. Los Angeles is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 first-round games, but otherwise it carries several negative ATS trends, including 2-5 overall, 2-6 at home, 2-4 as a favorite, 2-5 against Western Conference squads and 4-10 on Tuesday.
The Thunder are on “over” streaks of 8-3 overall, 7-1 on the road, 5-1 as a road ‘dog and 12-3-1 on Tuesdays The Lakers are on a plethora of “under” runs, including 6-2 overall, 6-1 at home, 18-8 as a favorite and 17-6 against Western Conference teams.
In this series, the “under” has cashed in six of the last eight meetings, with Game 1 stay way under the 197-point total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Portland (1-0 SU and ATS) at Phoenix (0-1 SU and ATS)
After stealing Game 1 from the Suns on Sunday, the underdog Trail Blazers will try to go up 2-0 when this best-of-7 Western Conference opening round series resumes inside the US Airways Center.
Portland outscored the Suns 35-28 in the final quarter to pull off the Game 1 upset, winning 105-100 as an 8½-point underdog – the only road team and underdog to open the playoffs with a victory. Andre Miller had a career-playoff high 31 points, including two key free throws to seal it, and dished out eight assists while LaMarcus Aldridge added 22 points and Marcus Camby grabbed 17 rebounds. The Blazers contained Phoenix All-Star forward Amare Stoudemire, who went just 8-for-19 from the field for 18 points after averaging more than 26 points since the All-Star break.
Portland, which went 13-4 (9-7-1 ATS) down the stretch to get the No. 6 seed, scored the Game 1 upset without the services of All-Star point guard Brandon Roy, who was lost at the end of the regular season with a knee injury. Roy will at least miss this entire first-round series.
The Suns went 22-5 (19-7-1 ATS) after Feb. 18, including a 10-game winning streak (7-2-1 ATS) from mid March and into early April. They closed the season with three consecutive SU and ATS wins but were only able to get four players in double-digit scoring Sunday.
The Blazers are 25-17 (26-15-1 ATS) on the road, and have now won six of their last seven roadies (4-3 ATS). Phoenix is 32-10 (25-16-1 ATS) in the desert, but their eight-game home winning streak (7-0-1 ATS) came to a halt Sunday.
Portland ended a six-year playoff drought last year, but went one-and-done, falling 4-2 to the Rockets (3-3 ATS) in the opening round. Meanwhile, Phoenix is back in the postseason after missing out last year. This is the Suns’ 19th postseason appearances in the last 22 years.
The Trail Blazers have now won five of the last six series clashes with the Suns (5-0-1 ATS), including three of four this season (3-0-1 ATS). Portland has also won two of three in Phoenix (2-0-1 ATS). The favorite is still on an 18-7-2 ATS run in this rivalry, and the Suns remain 12-6-2 ATS in the last 20 meetings in Phoenix.
Portland brings some positive ATS runs into the playoffs, including 16-6-1 on the road, 9-2 as a playoff underdog and 15-6-1 on the road against teams with winning home records. The Suns are on a bunch of ATS surges, including 25-10-1 overall, 12-4-1 at home, 18-8-1 as a favorite, 19-8-1 against the Western Conference, 13-4-1 as a home favorite, 6-1-1 at home against teams with winning road records and 37-18-1 on Tuesday.
The Blazers have topped the total in seven of nine as an underdog of five to 10½ points and 19 of 27 on the road against teams with winning home records, but they are on “under” runs of 8-4 as an underdog overall and 4-1 after a spread-cover. Phoenix is on “over” runs of 12-5 as a favorite and 9-2 as a chalk of five and 10½ points, but it is also on “under” streaks of 5-2 against Northwest Division teams and 5-2 after a day off.
In this series, the “under” has cashed in four of the last six played in Phoenix, including Sunday’s contest that came up just short of the 208-point total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PORTLAND
NBA Combo RoundUp For 4/20
By Dan Bebe
Bucks @ Hawks - Atlanta by 7.5 with a total of 187.5. This is another rematch where we saw one team dominate the early parts of the opener, then the underdog come storming back once they realized the basketball still bounces the same in the Playoffs. I'm still not 100% sold on the Bucks being a good play here in game two, though the line certainly tells me I should be. This low line is the oddsmakers way of giving us a hint on the game, and there's absolutely no way that with Atlanta winning, and covering by a bucket at the first game's line of 8.5, this one would come out lower unless oddsmakers felt strongly that sharp money would be on Milwaukee and that the Bucks would play well enough to warrant that money. You'll see this same description in some other games coming up, as well, as we look at how the young, upstart playoff teams bounce back off the nerves that showed up in game one. The total moved up a hair, which is pretty reasonable, as the first game went over the total by roughly 7 points. All that being said, we saw the Bucks start to click in the second half, and they should be able to play competitively in this one. Does that mean they cover? Not necessarily, but there's probably a little value on that side, since they only lost by 10 and really didn't play until the 2nd half. Lean to Milwaukee, and lean to the Under, since I think the Hawks fail to shoot 54% in this one.
Heat @ Celtics - Boston by 2 with a total of 179. This one is a real head-scratcher, since we can be pretty sure this line would have opened a good 2 points higher if Kevin Garnett was healthy. Miami blew a chance to steal one in the opener, and while I must again admit to being airborne during this game, it seems like that was the Heat's great shot to steal one of the first two games on the road. I know Kevin Garnett is Boston's heart and soul, but this very short line, combined with all the fanfare around the Garnett suspension (and players calling him "dirty") has, in my opinion, killed most of the value we might have had on the Heat. This one is Boston or nothing at this very short line, and most likely, because Pierce appears to be a little banged up, it might be safest to sit one out. What about the total, though? Well, the teams played to a whopping 161 in their last game, so that brought the total down quickly, and I have to believe that almost all value in the Under is completely sapped. Maybe not. I'm not too strong on this total, as all Boston games start quickly, then slow to a painful crawl. Heat games tend to start slow, and end slow. This could end around 160, or a high-scoring 1st quarter could push this game up near 180. I'd probably leave the total alone, but I don't know if I can bet the over in this series until I see someone make a shot.
Blazers @ Suns - Phoenix by 8.5 with a total of 205. If it ain't broke? Hah. Right back where we started, here with the Suns as the hefty favorite, and oddsmakers nailed the total, so they left that right where it was, too. What does the line adjustment, or lack thereof, tell us? Well, they know the public isn't going to flip sides that easily. We all saw the Blazers out-size the Suns in game one, and win outright as a big dog, but with the line the same, I think oddsmakers are telling us they legitimately believe the Suns win this game, and win it by close to 9 points. The big Portland win should get us closer to a split of public tickets, so line movement in this game might actually mean something (it didn't in the first game, at least not until the line tanked a half hour before the game started). And what does that mean for us? Probably a stay-away game. There isn't really any strong value on either side. Portland is going to be pleased to take one on the road and steal home court, and Phoenix is going to press the tempo and probably win by 7-10 points. I would, in fact, advise laying off this side, as I believe oddsmakers set this line with the intent not only to split the money, but to split the result. Same deal with the total, though I can't imagine the first half being any slower than in game one, and I might be inclined to take a peek at the Over.
Thunder @ Lakers - Los Angeles by 6.5 with a total of 190.5. See, now this is intriguing, though somewhat expected. Much like the Bulls game yesterday, and the Bucks game today, oddsmakers have adjusted the side down with the expectation that the young team won't suffer through a prolonged jittery first quarter/half, and will keep the game closer, longer. It's rare that we get such opportunities all in one Playoffs, but there has been some nice turnover at the bottom of each Conference, with the Bobcats and Bucks making the postseason in the East, and the Thunder making the playoffs out West. It's exciting, really, to see these young, up-and-coming clubs meeting that first goal of getting to the postseason. Of course, it was somewhat predictable that most of these youngsters would struggle, and maybe it was more obvious with the Bobcats and Thunder than any of the others. Still, with the Lakers winning, and covering, you have to think those Lakers bettors (or at least the average ones, not the sharp ones here at Pregame) are going to go right back to the well. And it might work, but we've seen this rodeo before. The Lakers are big and strong, and the Thunder got pushed around for 24 minutes in the first game, but you can bet they're going to come back with a bigger effort in game two. Something tells me Kobe wins this one with a buzzer-beater. Just sayin'. And with that in mind, I have to lean Thunder to keep this one close. I also wonder about this total. It came out ultra-low, and actually moved a point down off the opening number, but it's going to take some bonus sleuthing to find out if that was perception-related, or sharp-money related. No lean on the total yet.