Game of the day: Thunder at Lakers Betting Preview
By Marc Lawrence
Game 5 of the Western Conference playoff series between the Lakers and the Thunder tips off at the Staples Center in Los Angeles Tuesday with the series deadlocked 2-2.
How they got here
Oklahoma City evened the series with Los Angeles at 2-2 with a resounding 110-89 victory Saturday night. As a result, the 21-point win turned its first-round series with the defending champs into a best-of-three.
"Well that was about as good as a game of basketball we could play at both ends of the floor," head coach Scott Brooks said. "I thought we set the tone defensively. We really made them miss some shots. Offensively, we took care of the basketball.”
Surprisingly, OKC won the game despite shooting only 41 percent. The Thunder won the rebounding battle 50-43, but, more important, the team played with intensity from start to finish.
Kobe Bryant, who's nursing a broken right index finger and a sore knee, scored just 12 points for the Lakers, while none of his teammates managed more than 13.
"A lot of people didn't expect us to be here," All-Star forward Kevin Durant said. "Once we got here, I know people were saying we were going to be swept. We knew what we were capable of.
“We're playing every day hard and practice every day hard, and with those attributes we can go far as a team."
Take a seat
One thing is for sure: Lakers coach Phil Jackson needs to do a better job of making adjustments.
The Lakers again failed to make Saturday’s contest a half-court game and instead allowed the Thunder to do damage in transition, with a 24-2 edge in fast break points.
Oklahoma City also continued its baffling control of the boards - despite the presence of 7-footers Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum inside for Los Angeles - and shot 20 more free throws.
Moreover, the Thunder needed only 22 points from Kevin Durant to secure the blowout victory. Durant scored nine of his points at the foul line, where the Thunder outscored the Lakers, 42-17.
As a result of the lopsided affair, Bryant and his starting teammates watched most of the final stanza from the bench. But Bryant sees no reason to panic after a surprising surge by the youngest team in the NBA, with most of Oklahoma City's players making their first postseason appearance.
"It's not rocket science," said Bryant, limited to 12 points in the 110-89 loss in Game 4. "We had a tough battle, we've got adjustments to make and we have a team that's playing extremely well right now that we have to deal with.
"It's not something where we lose swagger. They defended their home court. Now, it's our turn. Simple as that."
Century village
It’s not often the Lakers lose a playoff game and allow 100 or more points in the same contest, but that's been the case in each of their last two games. In fact, it’s happened 72 times since 1991, with L.A. bouncing back off the mat to win 47 times the following game, going 40-30-2 ATS in the process.
Better yet, when they are of a loss of 14 or more points in these affairs, they are 12-5 ATS, including 4-0 ATS off back-to-back losses.
Money matters
The Lakers are 10-6 SU and 4-11-1 ATS in the playoffs off back-to-back losses, including 1-7 ATS as a favorite of six or more points.
L.A. was 5-1 SU and ATS in games off back-to-back defeats this season, losing three games in a row only once.
Oklahoma City is 7-11 ATS in games off back-top-back SU and ATS wins this season, including 3-7 ATS when playing off two wins exact.
Tuesday's NBA Tips
By Brian Edwards
Bettors are loving life Tuesday with four games on tap in the NBA Playoffs. Are the Lakers in trouble? Might the Thunder be able to pull a Golden State (over Dallas) circa 2007 or a Denver (over Seattle) circa ’94? We’ll have a better idea after Game 5, which is one of the four games on the card.
**Heat at Celtics**
With its season on the line Sunday, Dwyane Wade carried Miami (48-38 straight up, 43-42-1 against the spread) to a 101-92 victory by exploding for a game-high 48 points. The Heat took the money as a 1 ½-point favorite in Game 4 in South Florida. Quentin Richardson added 20 points, seven rebounds and three steals, draining 4-of-6 attempts from 3-point range. Michael Beasley finished with 15 points, while veteran Udonis Haslem pulled down a team-high 11 rebounds.
Trailing the series 3-1, Miami returns to Beantown with hopes of becoming the first team in NBA postseason history to recover from a 0-3 deficit to win a seven-game series. For Game 5, Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Boston as a 4 ½-point favorite with a total of 187 ½. As of Monday afternoon, most spots had the Celtics favored by six with a total of 188. The Heat are plus-250 to win outright (risk $100 to win $250).
Boston (53-33 SU, 36-48-2 ATS) rallied from a 14-point deficit in the third quarter of Game 1 to win an 85-76 decision over the Heat. Then in Game 2, the Celtics stroked Miami 106-77 despite the one-game suspension of Kevin Garnett. In Game 3, Paul Pierce buried a game-winning jumper to beat the buzzer and give the C’s a 100-98 triumph for a 3-0 series advantage.
Doc Rivers’ squad has been mediocre at home all year, going 26-17 SU and 14-28-1 ATS. Meanwhile, the Heat has a 23-20 SU record and a 24-19 ATS ledger on the road.
The ‘over’ is 44-41-1 overall for the Celtics, 23-19-1 in their home outings.
The ‘under’ is 46-38-2 overall for Miami, 24-17-2 in its road assignments.
The ‘over’ is 8-2 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these Eastern Conference rivals.
Tip-off is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. Eastern on SunSports and Comcast New England.
**Bulls at Cavaliers**
LVSC opened Cleveland (64-22 SU, 40-45-1 ATS) as an 11-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 195 ½. As of Monday afternoon, most books had the Cavs at 12 with the total up to 199 ½. The Bulls have generous 14/1 odds to win outright.
Chicago (42-44 SU, 44-40-2 ATS) captured a 108-106 victory at home Thursday to pull to within 2-1 in this first-round showdown with the Eastern Conference’s top seed. Derrick Rose was the catalyst with 31 points and seven assists without a turnover. Kirk Hinrich added 27 points, five rebounds and five assists compared to just one turnover, while Joakim Noah produced 10 points, 15 rebounds, five assists and a pair of blocked shots.
With the Bulls looking to pull even Sunday, Mike Brown’s team responded in resounding fashion. After falling behind by a 14-10 count early, the Cavs took control and cruised to a 121-98 win as 5 ½-point road favorites. LeBron James was nothing short of sensational, registering a triple-double with 37 points, 12 boards and 11 assists. Antawn Jamison chipped in with 24 points and seven boards, while Mo Williams added 19 points.
Chicago’s Derrick Rose and Luol Deng are both expected to play in Game 5, but neither player will be at 100 percent. Rose had an MRI on his ankle Monday, while Deng missed practice with a sore right knee and calf. Deng missed 11 straight games late in the regular season with a calf injury.
The Bulls, who are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road outings, are 23-20 ATS on the road this season. Cleveland is 37-6 SU but just 17-26 versus the number at home in QuickenLoans Arena.
The ‘over’ is 42-41-3 overall for the Cavs, 21-21-1 in their home games.
The ‘under’ has been a money maker in Chicago games, cashing at a 48-37-1 overall clip and a 25-17-1 rate in its road assignments.
Tip-off is slated for 8:05 p.m. Eastern on TNT.
**Spurs at Mavericks**
Dallas (56-30 SU, 38-46-2 ATS) is surprisingly facing elimination when it returns home Tuesday for Game 5. The Spurs have won three straight in this series following Sunday night’s nail-biting victory.
San Antonio (53-33 SU, 46-38-2 ATS) was hearing its obituary read after a 100-94 loss at Dallas in Game 1. I guess we can accurately say that its demise was greatly exaggerated. The Spurs have responded with wins in Games 2, 3 and 4 by the following scores: 102-88, 94-90 and 92-89.
George Hill led the way for the Spurs in Game 4, pacing five double-digit scorers with a game-high 29 points on 11-of-16 shooting from the field. Manu Ginobli finished with 17 points, seven assists and four steals, while Richard Jefferson added 15 points on 6-of-9 shooting.
Most spots are listing Dallas as a five-point favorite with a total of 193. Bettors can back the Spurs to win outright for a plus-200 payout (risk $100 to win $200).
Dirk Nowitzki had 17 points and 11 rebounds in the Game 4 loss. He made 4-of-10 attempts from the field and all of his free throws. Nowitzki is averaging 28.0 points per game in the series, including a 35-point effort in a Game 3 defeat.
The ‘over’ is 43-42-1 overall for the Mavs, 22-20-1 in their home outings.
The ‘under’ is 46-37-3 overall for the Spurs, 27-14-2 in their road games.
The ‘under’ is 6-1-1 in the last eight head-to-head meetings between these Western Conference adversaries.
NBA-TV will have television coverage at 9:35 p.m. ET.
**Thunder at Lakers**
LVSC opened Los Angeles (59-27 SU, 34-39-3 ATS) as a 5 ½-point favorite with a total of 196. As of late Monday afternoon, most books had the Lakers as six-point ‘chalk’ with the total reduced to 194. Gamblers can take the Thunder on the money line for a plus-250 return (risk $100 to win $250).
Oklahoma City (52-34 SU, 51-35 ATS) bounced back from a pair of losses at L.A. to win Games 3 and 4 back at home. The Thunder prevailed by a 101-96 count as a 3 ½-point favorite in Thursday’s Game 3. Then on Saturday in OKC, the Thunder rolled to a 110-89 triumph as a one-point home ‘chalk.’
Kevin Durant scored a team-high 22 points in Game 4. Russell Westbrook added 18 points, eight rebounds and six assists without committing a turnover. Jeff Green and James Harden had 15 points apiece.
Kobe Bryant didn’t take a shot in the first quarter of the Game 4 loss. His first attempt didn’t come until several minutes into the second quarter. Bryant finished with 12 points, four assists, three rebounds and three turnovers of a ho-hum effort. Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol shared team-high honors with 13 points apiece.
Phil Jackson’s team is mired in a 1-6 ATS slide in its last seven games. For the season, the Lakers are 36-7 SU and 17-24-2 ATS at home.
OKC owns a 23-20 SU record on the road, but the Thunder has been more dynamic on the road for our purposes with a 27-16 ATS mark.
The ‘under’ is 48-37-1 overall for the Lakers, 25-17-1 in their road games.
The ‘over’ is 45-38-3 overall for the Thunder, 24-18-1 in its road outings.
TNT will have the telecast at 10:30 p.m. ET.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Facing elimination back home at Pepsi Center on Wednesday, Denver is listed as a 6 ½-point favorite vs. Utah for Wednesday’s Game 5.
Following Denver’s Game 4 loss Sunday at Utah, J.R. Smith tweeted the following gem: You play selfish you lose selfish that’s all I’m saying about the game! Might Smith, notorious for never encountering a shot he didn’t like, be pointing fingers at Carmelo Anthony with the ‘selfish’ remark? ‘Melo had 39 points on 13-of-26 shooting, but he did commit nine turnovers. Smith was 3-for-11 from the field, 1-of-4 from beyond the arc.
Why did Utah cast off rookie guard Eric Maynor so quickly? The VCU product had 13 points for OKC in Game 4 against the Lakers. Maynor, who burst on the scene by beating Duke as a sophomore with a game-winning bucket during the 2008 NCAA Tournament, connected on 3-of-5 shots from the floor at 6-of-7 from the charity stripe.
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NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Miami (1-3 SU and ATS) at Boston (3-1 SU and ATS)
The Celtics get their second chance to finish off this first-round best-of-7 series when they return home to TD Garden to meet the Heat in Game 5.
The desperate Heat finally cracked the playoff win column in a back-and-forth, 101-92 Game 4 victory Sunday as a 1½-point home favorite. Miami jumped out to a 13-point lead after the first quarter, got outscored by 19 in the middle two frames, then rallied with 30 in the fourth quarter while holding the Celts to 15. The Heat snapped an eight-game SU losing streak to Boston.
Dwyane Wade went off for 46 points, going 16 of 24 from the floor, including 5 of 7 from 3-point range. In fact, the Heat shot better from long distance (10 of 18, 55.6 percent) than they did overall (38 of 76, 50 percent).
Boston shot a respectable 49.3 percent (34 of 69) on Sunday, but went just 8 of 21 from beyond the arc (38.1 percent) and was just 16 of 27 at the free-throw line (59.3 percent). None of the Big Three of Kevin Garnett (18 points), Paul Pierce (16) and Ray Allen (15) could even reach 20 points, and the Celtics also got outrebounded 43-35. Rajon Rondo led Boston with 23 points and nine assists.
Miami entered the postseason having won eight in a row on the road, then lost Games 1 and 2 SU and ATS at Boston. The Heat are now 23-20 SU (24-19 ATS) on the highway this season, narrowly outscoring opponents 95.3-95.2, while shooting 45.7 percent and allowing 43.6 percent. Boston is 26-17 SU at home, but despite cashing in the first two contests of this series, the Celtics remain a meager 18-28-1 ATS in Beantown, where they average 100.1 ppg (48.8 percent shooting) and give up 96.0 (45.7 percent).
Boston has now taken eight of the last nine (6-3 ATS) against Miami and 14 of the last 16 (11-5 ATS). The chalk has cashed in 12 of the last 15 clashes, and the SU winner is 12-2 ATS in the last 14 head-to-head battles. In addition, the SU winner has covered in Miami’s last 11 postseason affairs and is 14-3-1 ATS in Boston’s last 18 playoff games.
The Heat are on a handful of ATS slides, including 3-6 overall, 4-10-1 in opening-round playoff games (2-6 last eight), 0-4 as a playoff pup and 1-4 after a SU win. However, they’ve cashed in seven of their last 10 roadies and are 4-1 ATS in their last five after a day off and 4-0 ATS in their last four as a pup of five to 10½ points.
The Celts are on ATS runs of 5-1 in first-round games, 4-1 as a playoff chalk, 4-1 after either a SU or an ATS setback and 5-2 against winning teams, but they remain in ATS ruts of 8-19-1 at the Garden and 7-18-2 after a day off.
Miami is on “over” strings of 7-2 overall, 8-2 against winning teams and 4-1 after a day off, but the Heat also carry “under” trends of 12-5-2 on the road and 9-3-1 as a road pup. Boston holds “over” streaks of 10-3 overall, 6-1 at home, 7-1 in first-round playoff games, 7-2 against winning teams, 13-3 after a non-cover and 35-16 when coming off a SU loss.
Finally, the total has cleared the posted price in eight of the last 10 meetings between these rivals, including the last three in this series and five of the last six dating to regular-season play. The over is also 4-1 in the last five Heat-Celtics games in Beantown.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Chicago (1-3, 2-2 ATS) at Cleveland (3-1, 2-2 ATS)
The Cavaliers look to close out the Central Division rival Bulls and move into the second round for the fifth straight year when they host this Game 5 clash at Quicken Loans Arena.
Cleveland bounced back from its Game 3 loss by pounding Chicago 121-98 as a 5½-point road chalk in Game 4 on Sunday. LeBron James spun a triple-double of 37 points, 12 rebounds (all defensive) and 11 assists, hitting 6 of 9 from 3-point range and 11 of 17 overall (64.7 percent). Antawn Jamison added 24 points for the Cavs, who shot a stout 53.2 percent (42 of 79), making 12 of 25 from long range (48 percent).
Joakim Noah and Derrick Rose each had 21 points for Chicago, with Noah adding a whopping 20 rebounds, but the Bulls shot a paltry 37.4 percent (34 of 91), including 33.3 percent from beyond the arc (4 of 12). Vinny Del Negro’s troops were down 23 after three quarters before finally playing the Cavs even in the meaningless fourth frame.
The Bulls are 17-26 SU on the road (23-20 ATS), getting outscored 101.0-96.7 and outshot 45.6 percent to 45.0 percent, but they’ve gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 roadies (1-1 ATS in Cleveland in this series). Meanwhile, the Cavs are 37-6 SU at home this year, but have gone just 17-26 ATS, outscoring visitors by an average of about six ppg (103.6-98.0) and holding a 48.3 percent to 45.4 percent shooting edge.
The underdog is 6-3 ATS in the last nine contests in this rivalry, and the home squad is on a 20-10 ATS roll, with Cleveland going 11-4 ATS in the last 15 contests at the Q. In addition, the SU winner is 30-3 ATS in the last 33 head-to-head clashes between these two.
Despite Sunday’s blowout loss, the Bulls are on a bundle of ATS surges, including 14-7 overall, 19-9-1 against Central Division rivals, 9-1 after a SU loss, 7-3 as an underdog, 7-3 as a playoff ‘dog and 5-1 as a road pup. However, they are still 5-10 ATS in their last 15 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
The Cavaliers are on ATS purges of 4-10 overall (2-5 last seven), 2-6 at home, 3-8 as a favorite, 1-6 after a SU win and 2-6 after a day off, but they remain on playoff ATS rolls of 14-5 in first-round play (7-2 last nine) and 17-6-1 as a chalk.
Chicago is on “over” stretches of 19-7-1 in first-round playoff games (7-1 last eight), 5-1 as a ‘dog and 10-1 as a playoff pup, and the over is on runs for Cleveland of 7-3 overall, 7-1 as a playoff chalk, 5-0 when laying 11 points or more and 4-0 after either a SU or an ATS win.
Finally, four of the last five meetings in this rivalry have cleared the posted price, including three in a row in this playoff series, after Game 1 stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and OVER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
San Antonio (3-1 SU and ATS) at Dallas (1-3 SU and ATS)
The seventh-seeded Spurs aim to complete a first-round upset when they travel to the American Airlines Center for Game 5 against the second-seeded Mavericks.
San Antonio erased a 48-37 halftime deficit by outscoring Dallas 29-11 in the third quarter of Game 4 Sunday, then held on for a 92-89 victory to get the push as a three-point home chalk and take a commanding 3-1 series lead. George Hill was the surprise star, racking up a game-high 29 points, including a 5-for-6 effort on 3-pointers. The Spurs, who dropped Game 1 in Dallas, won their third in a row despite a woeful four-point outing from Tim Duncan, who went 1-for-9 from the floor, but did contribute 11 rebounds.
Dallas didn’t get a single player past 17 points, with Dirk Nowitzki and Caron Butler each reaching that mark, and Nowitzki adding 11 boards. The Mavericks got outshot 45.3 percent to 41.6 percent.
The Spurs are 30-13 SU (21-22 ATS) on the highway this year, outscoring foes by about a bucket per game (97.3-95.4), while shooting 45.6 percent and allowing 44.3 percent. The Mavs stand at 29-14 SU at home, but are a paltry 12-30-1 ATS, averaging 101.5 ppg (45.9 percent) and giving up 99.5 ppg (46.2 percent).
This series could end up being a reversal of last year’s first-round clash, which Dallas won in five games (4-1 ATS). San Antonio’s SU and ATS victories in the last three contests halted a 4-0 SU and ATS run by Dallas in this rivalry. The Mavs are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings, the host is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 matchups, and Dallas is still on a 6-1 ATS run in its last seven home starts against Gregg Popovich’s troops (the lone exception coming in Game 2 of this series).
In addition, the SU winner is on a 16-1-1 ATS tear when these squads hook up.
The Spurs are in a 1-5 ATS slide as a playoff pup, but are otherwise on pointspread upswings of 20-8-1 overall, 8-2-1 after a day off, 14-5-1 in the West and 8-3-1 against winning teams. The Mavericks are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine overall, and they are on further pointspread upticks of 6-2-1 after a day off and 5-1 laying points, but they are just 8-29-1 ATS in their last 38 home games and 5-11 ATS in their last 16 as a playoff chalk.
San Antonio is on “under” runs of 5-1-1 overall, 6-1-1 against winning teams, 7-1-1 getting points, 12-3-2 as a road pup and 8-3 coming off a SU win. Likewise, Dallas is on a boatload of “under” sprees, including 11-4-1 overall (4-0-1 last five, all against the Spurs), 5-0-1 inside the Southwest Division, 5-1 after a SU loss and 4-1 following a day off.
Finally, the under is 6-1-1 in this year’s eight clashes in this rivalry, with the last three games of this playoff series staying below the total after a push in Game 1.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Oklahoma City (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS)
After dominating Games 3 and 4 to draw even in this best-of-7 series, the young Thunder hope to maintain their momentum when they return to the Staples Center for Game 5 against the defending NBA champion Lakers.
Oklahoma City rallied for a 101-96 victory on Thursday as a 3½-point home favorite and then delivered a 110-89 beating on Saturday, easily cashing as a one-point chalk. The Thunder held Kobe Bryant to just 12 points and outrebounded the Lakers 50-43 in Sunday’s win. Regular-season scoring champ Kevin Durant went 6-for-12 for 22 points and guard Russell Westbrook had 18 points, eight boards and six assists.
Oklahoma City is 23-20 (27-16 ATS) on the highway this season and it has dropped five straight (2-3 ATS) on the road, including the first two games of this series by eight and three points. Los Angeles is 36-7 inside Staples Center, but just 17-24-2 ATS, despite outscoring the opposition by more than eight ppg (103.3-94.9).
The Thunder haven’t been in the playoffs since 2005 when the franchise was the Seattle SuperSonics and they reached the Western Conference semifinals, losing to the Spurs 4-2 (3-3 ATS), after beating Sacramento 4-1 (3-2 ATS) in the opening round. The Lakers’ march to the title last season included a 4-1 (2-3 ATS) series win over the Jazz, 4-3 (SU and ATS) over the Rockets, 4-2 (3-3 ATS) over the Nuggets and then 4-1 (SU and ATS) over the Magic in the NBA Finals. L.A. has reached the postseason five straight times and 15 times in the last 16 years.
The Lakers had won 14 of 15 (6-9 ATS) in this rivalry prior to dropping the last two games. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City has cashed in three straight and five of the last six clashes, including two of the last three in Los Angeles.
The Thunder are on several positive ATS runs, including 4-1 overall, 10-2 after two days off, 19-7 on the road against teams with winning home records, 10-4 as an underdog, 14-6 as a road ‘dog, 21-9 against winning teams and 38-17-1 on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Los Angeles is on several negative ATS slides, including 1-6 overall, 1-4 as a home favorite, 1-4 after a non-cover, 2-5-1 after two days off, 4-11 on Tuesday and 1-6 against winning teams.
Oklahoma City is on “over” streaks of 10-4 overall, 7-2 on the road, 12-3-1 on Tuesday, 5-2 as a road ‘dog, 20-7 after a straight-up win and 5-2 against Western Conference teams. The Lakers have topped the total in four of five after a non-cover, but they’re otherwise on “under” runs of 7-1 at home, 18-8 against Western Conference teams, 31-15 after a straight-up loss, 20-6 as a playoff favorite, 23-8 against Northwest Division teams, 7-1 as a home favorite and 13-3 at home against teams with winning road marks.
In this series, the “under” has cashed in four of the last five meetings in Hollywood, with the first two contests of this playoff series easily staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA RoundUp For 4/27
By Dan Bebe
Bulls @ Cavaliers - Cleveland by 12 with a total of 199.5. The first thing that jumps out in this game is the monster adjustment on the total. We foolishly rode the under in the last game, near 195, and the game went flying over the mark. The two previous games, oddsmakers left the total mostly the same while the scores just kept piling up, but not this time. They have seen enough of the fast-paced game, and they moved this number up almost 5 full points. That is a colossal adjustment mid-playoff series. How do we react to that? Well, we got murdered on that last under, but let's try to forget that we were on the game, and approach this one with a fresh perspective. Oddsmakers don't want another Over, especially considering how easily each of the last 3 games cleared the mark, so this huge adjustment does, in fact, create value on the Under. I know, it hurts to even think about it, but I just don't think you can keep riding this over-train, at least not when the oddsmakers move the line that far. As far as the side is concerned, this is a pretty standard 6-point line swing from game four in Chicago. It doesn't tell us a great deal, though you have to think the Bulls at least try to play a little defense. They just can't stop Cleveland, and they could just as easily get bounced by 25. Very tough call, miniscule lean to the Bulls.
Heat @ Celtics - Boston by 6 with a total of 188. This is the largest spread the Celtics have laid in the series, so far, which certainly gives the indication that oddsmakers are starting to catch up, and at least partially figure out this series. It seems awfully difficult to see the Heat taking this series back to Miami. They burst out to a quick lead in game four, and probably would have blown it if Dwyane Wade hadn't single-handedly lifted the Heat onto his shoulders and put on one of those 4th quarter shows that folks will talk about for a few days. Can he do it again, on the road? I doubt it. Will Boston dominate this game and cover 6 points? Also not entirely clear. You have to think they'll come out with a little more energy and probably won't turn the ball over 9 times in the first 10 minutes at home. That's going to make life difficult for Miami, a team that has relied on Wade to keep them in the game just about every night. The young guys played decent basketball on their home court, and Miami split the game at home, but we saw how the Boston non-superstars stepped up at home, and we also saw how Miami got whipped the last 5 quarters they played in Boston. Slight lean to Celtics. The total of 188 seems somewhat high, considering that the teams shot 49 and 50% in game four, and the total still hit just 193. Lean Under.
Spurs @ Mavericks - Dallas by 4.5 with a total of 192.5. The Mavericks continue another Playoff meltdown, blowing a monster lead in San Antonio on Sunday with a dismal 3rd quarter, and now trailing in the series 3-1. I know this bet looks like a no-brainer on the Dallas side, but I would offer a few words of caution. First, the Spurs are just the tougher team. Dallas outshot the Spurs at the free throw line by 20 in the first game and since then, the free throws are pretty close to even, with maybe a slight edge to San Antonio. So, once you take away Dallas's edge over every team in the NBA, the "free shot", they're not too impressive. The Spurs have held the Mavs to just 37, 45 and 42% shooting from the field in the 3 straight wins, while at the same time shooting 48, 49, and 45%, themselves. How are the Mavs going to get points? They're still a finesse team, even after adding Haywood and Butler, at least that's what we're seeing in the Playoffs, and I'm not sure I trust them to come through, even at home. It's going to be a desperation effort, which makes me think this might be that game where Dallas finally breaks through with a hot-shooting performance, but if not, they could easily get finished off right here. Almost 50/50 on that. I'd offer a tiny lean to the Mavs, in that regard. I simply don't understand the total on this game. The totals in this series have been 194, 190, 184, 181, and yet, somehow, the posted mark has been bouncing between 193 and 195 all series. Very strange. I'd say that oddsmakers think this one is going to clear the mark, but so far the totals just keep going under. Dallas has to shoot in the high-40's at some point, don't they? Tiny lean to the Over.
Thunder @ Lakers - Los Angeles by 6 with a total of 195. I wonder if we're actually getting some value on the Lakers for the first time since game one. The Lakers nipped the spread in the first game of this series, but since, have gone 0-3 ATS while watching the Thunder go 2-1 SU in that same span of time. So, the Hollywood series that has everyone talking is suddenly starting to become much more "even" in the eyes of the fans. I'm sure we'll still see the public come in on Lakers, but I also happen to believe that this spread is exceedingly low for this series, and oddsmakers have no choice, knowing that the Thunder's blowout win in game four is going to move at least some portion of the money over to the Thunder side. But, we've seen the Lakers respond when pushed a number of times, and they're not going to get scared until they're down in the series. Definitely a game the Lakers need to win, though, and I think they will. Lean to LA. The total of 195 has dropped already, so we have some idea where the early money went. The Thunder shot 48 free throws in game four, and that won't happen again. I like that the two games in Oklahoma featured a few more points, but the Lakers will slow things down again in LA, and look for this one to go Under.