Tuesday's Best NBA Bets
Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics (N/A)
Shaquille O’Neal’s return to the Boston lineup did not last long, Shaq, who had been out with an Achilles’ injury, suffered a strained right calf after playing just six minutes in Sunday’s home win over Detroit. He is listed as doubtful for Tuesday’s clash against Philadelphia.
The Celtics will also likely be without Nenad Krstic (questionable with a knee problem) and Troy Murphy (questionable with an ankle injury that has kept him out since March 23).
That is not good news for Boston, which has fallen three games back of Eastern Conference-leading Chicago and a half game behind Miami for the No. 2 seed. The Celtics have dropped four of their last seven contests (2-5 ATS).
Philadelphia, meanwhile, has won three of its last four (3-1 ATS) and has clinched a playoff spot. How confident are the Sixers? Well, they are already thinking about getting out of the first round, which would require a huge upset.
“I'm just like, ‘Whoever we play, let's just be ready,’” Thaddeus Young told the Philadelphia Inquirer. “‘Let's be ready to blow by them and get out of the first round.’”
A word of caution heading into Tuesday: Sixth Man of the Year contender Louis Williams strained a hamstring during Saturday’s overtime loss at Milwaukee and almost certainly won’t play.
Pick: 76ers
Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets (-4, 207)
A first-round playoff preview is on Tuesday’s schedule as the Thunder and Nuggets are set for a showdown. Barring a major shakeup in the middle of the Western Conference standings, Oklahoma City is locked into the four seed and Denver has wrapped up the fifth spot.
When the Nuggets traded Carmelo Anthony two months ago, most people figured George Karl could start channeling his inner Jim Mora Sr. Playoffs? We’re talkin’ about playoffs?
Absolutely. In fact, Denver has improved since getting rid of ‘Melo. The team is 15-4 (16-2-1 ATS) post-trade and has won six in a row (4-1-1 ATS).
“The intangibles that win games are out there more often than I ever remember,” Karl told the Denver Post after Sunday’s 95-90 road win over the Lakers. “The thing I've seen on the team is that it's solid. We haven't been solid since I've been here. We've been up and down, wild and crazy, good and bad. Beat anybody anytime by 20, lose to anybody anytime by 20. I don't think you're going to see that.”
The home team has won (and covered) both of this season’s meetings between the two teams, with Oklahoma City prevailing 114-106 on Christmas Day and Denver getting revenge 112-107 on Jan. 19.
Pick: Nuggets
Houston Rockets in must-win versus Kings
By: Brad Young
Sacramento (22-54 straight up, 34-40 against the spread) begins a four-game road trip playing the role of spoiler. The Kings are headed to the NBA Lottery, while Tuesday’s opponent Houston (41-36 SU, 41-34-2 ATS) continues to fight for a playoff berth.
Sacramento is also going into the offseason with it uncertain if the franchise will stay in California’s capital city or relocate to Anaheim.
The Rockets enter this matchup in ninth place in the Western Conference standings, three games behind New Orleans and Memphis. Houston has just five games remaining in the regular season to catch either the Hornets or Grizzlies.
Tuesday’s contest is scheduled to start at 5:30 p.m. PT from Houston’s Toyota Center.
Sacramento had dropped back-to-back outings before upending Utah Sunday as 6 ½-point home ‘chalk,’ 106-97. The combined 203 points failed to eclipse the 206 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the third consecutive contest.
The Kings finished the contest with advantages in rebounding, 39-33, assists, 29-25, and points in the paint, 52-40. Sacramento shot a robust 52 percent (41-of-79) from the field, and 40 percent (6-of-15) from behind the arc.
Point guard Tyreke Evans paced the offense with 24 points, four rebounds and 10 assists. Power forward DeMarcus Cousins accounted for 17, nine and six, while shooting guard Francisco Garcia provided 17, four and four.
Houston is riding a modest two-game SU winning streak after beating Atlanta Sunday as a six-point home favorite, 114-109. The Rockets are just 1-2 ATS their past three performances. The combined 223 points soared past the 200 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ cash the second consecutive contest.
Houston rallied from a 14-point first-half deficit, outscoring the Hawks in the third quarter, 32-18. The Rockets grabbed more rebounds, 35-30, and also scored more points in the paint, 56-38. Houston connected at a 57-percent clip (43-of-75) from the field, but just 20 percent (3-of-15) from 3-point land.
Shooting guard Kevin Martin enjoyed a solid effort with 35 points and eight assists in the victory, while center Chuck Hayes had 19 and 12 rebounds. Point guard Kyle Lowry provided 17 and eight assists, while power forward Luis Scola had 15.
Houston has won the last four meetings with Sacramento SU and ATS after winning all three encounters this season. The Rockets prevailed Dec. 14 as a 9½-point home ‘chalk,’ 118-105, Dec. 19 as a 3½-point road favorite, 102-93, and March 7 as a 4½-point road ‘chalk,’ 123-101. The ‘over’ is 6-2 the previous eight games in this series. The Kings are 8-1 ATS the last nine meetings in Houston, and the road team is 21-7 ATS the past 28 matchups.
Sacramento is reporting no players as ‘probable,’ ‘questionable’ or ‘doubtful’ for this contest. Houston guard Kyle Lowry (facial injury) is ‘probable’ against the Kings.
Sacramento follows this contest with road games against San Antonio, Memphis and Golden State. Houston’s next game is at New Orleans before returning for a two-game homestand versus the Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas.
The Kings have seen the ‘over’ go 13-3 their past 16 road games. The Rockets are 11-2 ATS their previous 13 outings versus Pacific Division opponents.
Nuggets, Thunder in playoff preview
By: Michael Robinson
The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder will meet in a likely first-round playoff preview on Tuesday night. Both teams made major trades at the deadline and have benefited greatly.
This 6 p.m. (PT) game from Denver's Pepsi Center will be broadcast locally. There are 13 contests on the docket after none on Monday due to college basketball’s title game.
The Nuggets (47-29 straight up, 40-32-4 against the spread) have won six straight games and are in fifth place in the Western Conference. They would open at Oklahoma City in the playoffs if the season ended today.
Coach George Karl’s team was 32-25 SU when it sent Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups to the Knicks for Raymond Felton, Danilo Gallinari and Wilson Chandler. Anthony forced Denver’s hand and at the time it looked like New York was the big winner.
Fast forward to today and Denver is 15-4 SU and an incredible 16-2-1 ATS since the swap. All four of the SU losses were away. Team scoring has dipped only slightly (106.6 PPG) compared to the season average (107.3 PPG), but it’s the points allowed that have plummeted (94.8 PPG vs. 102.6 PPG for the year).
Anthony (25.5 PPG) is one of the NBA’s leading scorers, but he gives up a lot on defense. Karl has his guys giving maximum effort defensively and playing unselfishly on the other end.
The Nuggets’ last game may have been their best. They went into Los Angles on Sunday and came away with a 95-90 win as 6½-point ‘dogs, snapping the Lakers nine-game winning streak.
The 185 combined points scored went way ‘under’ the 200½-point total. The ‘under’ is 4-0 in Denver’s last four games and 8-1 in the last nine.
The Thunder’s (50-26 SU, 39-36-1 ATS) big trade of Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic to Boston for Kendrick Perkins wasn’t made out of duress like Denver’s. Instead, GM Sam Presti saw the physical center he needed and even signed Perkins to a long-term extension.
Presti’s posse has gone 14-6 SU (10-9-1 ATS) since the trade was announced. Perkins wasn’t available for the first 2.5 weeks due to a sprained left knee. He tore the ACL in his right knee in the NBA Finals and won’t be completely healthy under next year.
Perkins’ debut came March 14 at Washington and the Thunder are 8-3 SU (5-5-1 ATS) since. The 6-foot-10 pivot is averaging 5.8 PPG and 7.6 RPG in just under 25 minutes per game. His biggest contribution though is defense and team ‘D’ is at 95.1 PPG in the last 11 versus 100.9 PPG on the year.
Oklahoma City opened up this four-game trip with a 116-98 win at Phoenix last Wednesday. However, weekend losses and failures to ‘cover’ at Portland (98-91) and the L.A. Clippers (98-92) have the Thunder needing to finish this trip with a win.
Denver and Oklahoma City have had met twice this year, with the home team winning and ‘covering’ each time. The total points scored were 219 and 220, but that was before their respective roster makeovers and the new commitment on defense.
Oklahoma City guard Russell Westbrook shot just 6-of 27 (22.2 percent) the last two games. He needs to play much better Tuesday to help out Kevin Durant (27.7 PPG).
Denver is the more balanced team offensively now with nine guys capable of scoring in double digits. Gallinari is averaging 15.9 PPG in the 10 games he’s played since coming over and Felton provides a nice spurt off the bench, backing up new starter Ty Lawson.
Denver’s Chris Andersen (ankle) and Arron Afflalo (hamstring) are both questionable. Oklahoma City is not reporting any significant injuries.
Oklahoma City returns home Wednesday to host the Clippers, while Denver flies to Dallas for a game the same night.
What Bettors Need to Know: Thunder at Nuggets
Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets (-4.5, 205.5)
THE STORY: The Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets could see a lot of each other in April, beginning with Tuesday’s contest in Denver. The two teams also meet in Oklahoma City on Friday and appear headed for a first-round playoff matchup when the postseason starts in less than two weeks. Oklahoma City is currently the fourth seed in the Western Conference and has a three-game lead over Denver in the Northwest Division and can move closer to clinching the division with a victory on Tuesday. Also at play is home-court advantage should the expected first-round series occur. That’s an important element when you factor in that both teams are immensely better at home than on the road. The Nuggets are currently fifth in the West, 2 1/2 games ahead of sixth-place Portland.
TV: 9 p.m. ET, FSOK, ALT.
ABOUT THE NUGGETS (47-29): Denver has won six straight games, the longest current streak in the NBA. The Nuggets notched an impressive 95-90 road win over the scorching Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday. The loss was just the second in the last 19 games for Los Angeles. Danilo Gallinari scored 22 points and Kenyon Martin had 18 points and eight rebounds as the Nuggets improved to 15-4 since trading Carmelo Anthony to the New York Knicks. Denver is 31-7 at home and has won the last 10 on its homecourt since losing to the Houston Rockets on Feb. 7. The Nuggets visit the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday prior to the rematch in Oklahoma City on Friday.
ABOUT THE THUNDER (50-26): Oklahoma City has lost back-to-back games to the Portland Trail Blazers and Los Angeles Clippers. Russell Westbrook had one of his poorest outings of the season in Saturday’s 98-92 loss to the Clippers, scoring nine points on 1-of-12 shooting. It was just the second time all season that Westbrook failed to score in double digits. Kevin Durant scored a team-high 23 points for his 11th straight 20-point outing. Durant scored 44 against Denver on Christmas Day. Forward Serge Ibaka has blocked 22 shots over the last seven games while averaging 14 points and 8.4 rebounds during that span. Oklahoma City hosts the Clippers on Wednesday before seeing the Nuggets again on Friday.
WHO'S HOT/WHO’S NOT: Oklahoma City guard James Harden is averaging 19 points over the last three games. Denver guard Raymond Felton is averaging 16.5 points over the last two games. Westbrook is averaging just 12.5 points and shooting 22.2 percent over the last two games. Nuggets guard J.R. Smith is averaging just seven points and shooting 33.3 percent over the past two contests.
KEY STATISTIC: Durant has a 28.4 average in 13 career games against the Nuggets. However, he had just 22 points on 6-of-18 shooting in this season’s previous meeting in Denver.
SEASON SERIES: The teams have split two games. Oklahoma City notched a 114-106 home win on Dec. 25 and the Nuggets defeated the Thunder 112-107 in Denver on Jan. 19.
KEY INJURIES: OKLAHOMA CITY: None. DENVER: F Chris Andersen (ankle); G Arron Afflalo (hamstring).
LAST WORD: “It helps us a lot as a young team. It helps us build confidence and trust each other and it helps us be grounded when the game is tight at the end. – Denver’s Wilson Chandler on the meaning of Sunday’s victory over the Lakers in Los Angeles.
TRENDS: The Thunder are 2-7-1 against the spread in their last 10 games against Western Conference opponents and 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
The Nuggets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine home games and 17-5-1 in their last 23 games as favorites.
The under is 5-1 in Oklahoma City's last six road games and 10-3 in the club's last 13 games overall.