Game of the day: Thunder at Jazz
By Nick Parsons.
The Thunder have clinched a playoff berth and are in the midst of the Western Conference playoff scramble.
The Jazz have won eight of their last 10 games and are in a dogfight for the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference playoffs.
Season series
The Thunder have won all three meetings this season and covered the number each time. Two of the three matchups have gone over the total and Oklahoma City star Kevin Durant has scored over 30 points in each game.
“There’s another season,” Durant said. “There’s always two seasons in the NBA, which is the regular season and the playoffs, and some people don’t make it. Unfortunately we didn’t make it these last two years but we have the opportunity this year.”
These two teams could end up meeting each other in the first round of the playoffs and Oklahoma City even has a chance of catching the Jazz in the standings. Utah could just about end those dreams with a win tonight.
Superstar starting to get calls
Durant has meant everything for the Thunder.
Sunday, a day after clinching a playoff berth, he scored 40 points in Oklahoma City’s win over Minnesota. Durant had 20 points in the first quarter alone.
The former Texas standout is also getting the star treatment according to opposing teams. He typically gets the benefit of the doubt on any contact plays and heads to the free-throw line.
Against the Timberwolves he was fouled on a 3-point attempt by Cory Brewer, who protested the call and drew a technical.
Kevin Garnett was equally ticked off when the youngster shot nearly as many free throws as the Celtics did as a team in a recent Oklahoma City win at Boston.
All that Jazz
Utah entered Saturday’s game against the Lakers with an outside chance of gaining the top seed in the conference but after L.A’s 106-02 waltz, now they’re just trying to secure second place.
"One win we can be back up two spots," point guard Deron Williams said. "So that's not that big of a deal."
Utah made its move up the West standings, going 31-10 over the past three months and they are 17-9 against the spread since the All-Star break.
They closed a rugged 17-game schedule in March going 12-5 and reached 50 wins for the third time in the last four seasons.
Home’s a holiday
The Jazz have won nine straight games at home and have coved the spread in eight of them. Utah’s average margin of victory in those games is 17 points.
Overall, Utah is 31-8 on the season but all eight of their losses have come to Northwest Division teams.
Road warriors
The Thunder have won six of their last seven games and clinched a playoff berth in the process. OKC has set its sights on 50 wins after winning just 23 games last season. They started last season 3-29.
While the turnaround has been remarkable what has made it possible is the Thunders’ 23-15 record on the road. They’ve also covered the spread six of their last eight road games.
Injuries
Utah’s Andrei Kirilenko has been sidelined since suffering a calf injury early in four games ago. The Jazz are 2-2 in the four games without him. Overall he has missed 11 of the past 13 games.
K-Korner
Utah’s Kyle Korver came off the bench and scored a season-high 21 points in the Jazz’s win over Golden State last week.
Korver finished 8-for-12 from the field against Golden State, meaning the Jazz improved to 14-4 when he shoots over 50 percent in a game. In all, Korver is now 55-for-100 on his 3-point attempts
Trend-setting
OKC has gone over the total four straight games.
OKC has gone over 14 of its last 17 games following a victory.
The Thunder is 7-2 ATS in their last nine games at Utah
The over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings at Utah.
The Jazz have rebounded well following double-digit losses. They are 6-0 in those cases.
Utah is 23-7-2 ATS in their last 32 home games.
Over is 19-7 in Utah’s last 26 vs. Northwest opponents.
Milwaukee (42-34, 49-26-1 ATS) at Chicago (37-39, 39-35-2 ATS)
The Bulls try to keep their postseason hopes alive while the Bucks look to move a step closer to locking up a playoff berth when these Central Division rivals clash at the United Center.
Milwaukee currently sits sixth in the Eastern Conference playoff pecking order, a half-game behind Miami for fifth and two games clear of seventh-place Charlotte. Meanwhile, the Bulls are on the outside looking in, as they are in the ninth slot, one full game behind Toronto for the eighth and final playoff berth in the East.
The Bucks have been idle since Saturday, when they cooled off the red-hot Suns with a 107-98 victory as a two-point home favorite. However, it was a costly win for Milwaukee, which lost leading rebounder and center Andrew Bogut, who fell hard after being fouled and suffered season-ending injuries to his right arm, including a dislocated elbow. The Bucks are just 3-4 SU in their last seven games, but they’ve cashed in five straight games and now sport the NBA’s best pointspread record.
Chicago is coming off consecutive wins over the Wizards on Friday (95-87 as a 5½-point road favorite) and Bobcats on Saturday (96-88 as a 4½-point home chalk). The Bulls are 6-2 SU in their last eight games and 9-2 ATS in their last 11. However, they’ve alternated SU wins and losses in their last seven home games, and they’re just 3-7 in their last 10 at the United Center (4-6 ATS).
The host has won all three meetings in this rivalry this season, four in a row dating to last year and nine of the last 11. However, the visitor and underdog have cashed in all three of this year’s battles, which have been decided by two, two and three points. In the lone meeting in Chicago way back in the first week of the season, the Bulls held on 83-81, but Milwaukee easily covered as an 8½-point underdog.
Including two spread-covers in Milwaukee this season, the Bulls are 6-2 ATS in their last eight matchups against the Bucks. Also, prior to this season, the favorite had covered in five straight meetings.
Milwaukee is riding a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 39-17-1 overall, 22-7 on the road, 34-16-1 versus the Eastern Conference, 4-1 in Central Division battles, 12-4-1 after a SU win, 36-15-1 after a spread-cover, 14-4 versus losing teams and 5-2-1 on Tuesday. Likewise, Chicago is on ATS runs of 9-2 overall, 4-0 against the Eastern Conference, 19-7-1 versus the Central Division and 22-8 following a spread-cover.
The over is 3-1-1 in the Bucks’ last five overall, but otherwise they’re on “under” runs of 35-16-1 against the Eastern Conference, 9-2 versus the Central Division, 9-3 on Tuesday and 4-1 when coming off two days’ rest. Also, Chicago is on “under” streaks of 7-2 overall, 5-1 at home, 6-1 against the Eastern Conference and 6-2 after two days off.
On the flip side, these teams have topped the total in seven of their last 10 meetings overall and seven of the last eight at the United Center. However, the under is 2-1 in this year’s three clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Oklahoma City (48-28, 45-31 ATS) at Utah (50-27, 47-27-3 ATS)
Two division rivals that have already locked up postseason berths clash for the fourth and final time in the regular season, as the Thunder go for the season sweep of the Jazz when they visit EnergySolutions Arena.
Oklahoma City rolls into Salt Lake City on a four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS) and it has won 15 of its last 20 games. It clinched its playoff spot with Saturday’s 121-116 upset win at Dallas as a three-point underdog, then returned home Sunday and knocked off Minnesota 116-108, but came up short as a 13½-point favorite despite another 40-point effort from Kevin Durant. The Thunder have won and covered three straight road games, and they’re 6-2 SU and ATS in their last eight on the highway. Also, the SU winner has cashed in each of Oklahoma City’s last 10 roadies.
Utah has been off since Friday, when its three-game winning streak ended with a 106-92 loss at the Lakers as a 4½-point road underdog. The Jazz are still 8-3 in their last 11 games (7-4 ATS), and they’ve alternated spread-covers in their last six contests. Going back to Jan. 6, Utah is 29-11-3 ATS, and only once during that 43-game stretch have the Jazz failed to cash in consecutive games. Also, Jerry Sloan’s squad has won nine straight home games, going 8-1 ATS.
The Thunder have defeated Utah three times this season (2-1 ATS), with the most lopsided result coming in Salt Lake City, a 104-94 rout as an eight-point underdog back on Nov. 24. Oklahoma City has cashed in seven of its last nine trips to Utah, but the home team is still 6-2 SU in the last eight clashes. Additionally, the underdog is on a 13-6 ATS roll in this rivalry.
Oklahoma City is on ATS streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 7-3 against the Western Conference, 36-17-1 on Tuesday, 5-2 after one day off and 39-16 following a non-cover. Meanwhile, the Jazz are on pointspread upticks of 33-15-3 overall, 23-7-2 at home (8-1 last nine), 19-7-2 against the Western Conference, 4-1-2 versus division rivals, 15-6-3 against winning teams, 13-5 following three days off, 6-0 after a double-digit loss, 23-6 after any defeat and 22-6 after a non-cover.
Additionally, Utah and Oklahoma City are second and third, respectively, in the NBA’s pointspread standings.
The Thunder have topped the total in four straight games overall, four straight on the road, 11 of 16 after a day off, 14 of 17 following a SU win and 11 of 14 on Tuesday. Also, the Jazz have gone over the total in 19 of 26 divisional games and six of their last eight on Tuesday, but from there Utah carries “under” trends of 3-0-1 overall (all against the Western Conference) and 3-0-1 after a non-cover.
Finally, the over is 7-3 in the last 10 Thunder-Jazz tussles in Salt Lake City.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA RoundUp For 4/6
By Dan Bebe
Raptors @ Cavaliers - Cleveland by 7.5 with a total of 207.5. I know it sounds nuts, but Toronto has actually played Cleveland relatively tough this season. I don't believe it's a match-up thing, since Cleveland had covered 6 straight meetings before this season, but Toronto has covered in 2 of 3, and the only one they did not was due to an overtime situation. And now, Toronto comes into Cleveland and is only getting roughly 7 points? Something seems fishy about this line. The Cavs just got beat in a tough game in Boston, so I imagine the public consensus is that they're all set to bounce back. I'm not so sure. Toronto is coming off an ugly home loss to the Warriors, and they're on the cusp of falling out of the playoffs. This is a Raptors team that should have its claws out, and this line is strongly indicative of that. Everyone knows the Cavs are going to be a huge money draw any time they play, so the fact that this line is coming out this low is as strong an indicator of the game's result as any motivational or match-up angle. Lean to Toronto. Pretty high total, as well, and largely reliant on Toronto making buckets. I actually believe the health of Anderson Varejao plays a large role in the total, and if he's out again, I lean Over, as no one can truly guard Chris Bosh.
Hawks @ Bobcats - This line is OFF. I happen to believe this game means more to Charlotte than it does to Atlanta, though neither is in a dire spot. Charlotte still hasn't clinched a playoff spot, and you know they'd love to surge past the Bogut-less Bucks and into 6th place, so as to avoid playing Orlando or Cleveland in the first round. The Hawks are pretty well-assured of home court in the first round, and either a series with Miami or Milwaukee, or, I suppose, Charlotte is an outside possibility. Atlanta is coming off an eerily tough home win over the Pistons, so they don't appear to be 100% focused heading down the stretch, and maybe it's because they realize that staying healthy is the most important thing right now. Charlotte is coming off a tough, late loss in Chicago, but we all know how much better this team is at home. The home/road splits for both teams and the motivational angles make me think Charlotte is going to be the nice value, here, so I lean Bobcats. The total is worth looking at the Under, since an open-court game strongly favors Atlanta.
Pistons @ Sixers - This line is OFF. This game means nothing to anyone. Zip. With that in mind, I advise just laying off. It isn't worth it - it's a coin flip. In this spot, I think the smart move is to err towards the home team, since visiting clubs in games where neither team is motivated seem to slip into a bit of a daze, and the home team's familiarity with the arena is the only factor at play. So, there's your advice for this "type" of game. For this particular game, Philly has been bad at home, Detroit stinks on the road - just don't risk it. Pass on the side. The total is interesting if only because we've been looking for a trend in these games between two teams that aren't playing for anything, and it's tough to find one. I'd think the Over should come into the mix, since defense will be lacking, but young players miss shots. Probably safer to lean to the Over or nothing at all, but again, why bet your money guessing on these no-relevance games?
Warriors @ Wizards - Golden State by 2 with a total of 219. Contrary to what you might think, this is not a no-relevance game, as the Warriors surge towards the finish line and surge towards the recordbooks. We've talked at great length about how much the Warriors want to get that "All Time Wins" record for their coach Don Nelson, and it has shown. They've played as hard as humanly possible against any team that they feel they can beat, and are coming off 2 straight wins, and are 4-2 in their last 6. They need to win 2 of their remaining 5 games to break the record, and I strongly believe we get top level effort in the next 3 games against weak competition. As far as value goes, the Warriors probably shouldn't be laying 2 points on the road to anyone, and that's what strikes fear into my heart here. This line is a value play on Washington, but do the Wizards really care about playing as hard as Golden State for the full 48 minutes? If the Warriors can eek one out in Toronto, surely they can hang with the one man gang (Blatche) that is Washington. Lean to Golden State, but just a small one, for the value-reasons stated above. Also, lean to the Under, since I don't see Washington trying to push the pace - they don't really have a reliable point guard, and a quick pace would inevitably lead to turnovers.
Celtics @ Knicks - Boston by 5 with a total of 208.5. Situationally, this game favors no one. The Knicks return home off a long west-coast road trip where they actually showed more fight than I expected in hanging with a couple of the teams they played, and picking up a rare win. But this is still a tough spot. New York just played in Los Angeles on Sunday night, so a coast-to-coast flight is not going to leave them fresh. The Celtics aren't going to be spry, either, off a narrow win over the Cavaliers on Sunday morning NBA on ABC. This game is basically the debate of what matters more - the letdown or the jetlag? I wouldn't bank on either. Boston is the obvious public side, but at the end of the season, it's not really that important to get into sharps and squares, since lines are so soft that both sides are taking home bacon pretty frequently. Boston has also shown the ability to fight through letdown spots, but they're not really in jeopardy of losing any playoff position, and the difference between 3rd and 4th in the East isn't all that important. No lean on the side as of yet, perhaps more as more information becomes available. Boston has been scoring a ton of points, and all 3 games with New York have featured a decent pace, but man, look at that crazy-high total. The thought occurs that it might be "high for a reason", and it might also be absurdly inflated. No lean on the total yet, either.
Bucks @ Bulls - Chicago by 5.5 with a total of 187. This line crazy, and it is largely crazy. The question that needs to be answered is whether this line adjustment is fair for the Bucks losing Bogut. I also happen to think this line is adjusted for the pressing need of this game for Chicago, as the Bulls are just a single game out of the playoffs, and they're playing with passion and to a certain degree, reckless abandon. This is almost like the playoffs already, and Chicago is stepping up, big time. These two teams have played all extremely close games this season, which makes it so tough to back Chicago, but in this spot, you just have to look at them as the team that needs the game, badly. The line has been preadjusted, but Milwaukee is in a bit of a depression right now, and I'm just not sure they bounce back well from the loss of Bogut. Without him, they're ALL jump-shots, and Chicago's swarming defense could potentially cause problems. I think you have to look at the team that's playing with desperation at home - lean to the Bulls. That total is extremely low, but without Bogut, we might be seeing a ton of pick and roll basketball with perimeter guys, and potentially a great many jump shots. It just comes down to whether guys are making them, and I think this one just barely squeezes Under.
Rockets @ Grizzlies - This line is OFF. I like the Grizzlies here for the same reason I liked Indiana on Sunday. The Rockets are just about done for the season, they're playing absolutely no defense at all, and matching up against a team that looks like they care a little about taking good feelings into the offseason. However, I dislike the Grizzlies because they've been clubbed in all 3 games this year by Houston, just matching up poorly for some reason. The loss of Shane Battier hurts Houston on defense a great deal, since the combination of Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo should be seeing a ton of daylight, but boy, I don't know what it is in this series - Houston just understands how to beat Memphis. Believe me, I want to take Memphis, but I'm not convinced. I'll offer a tiny lean in their direction (Grizz), but this is going to be one of the first leans off the table if any bad line moves or other indicators surface. Basically, I'm looking for a reason to pass. These teams just keep playing to the under again and again, but will the lack of Battier ruin that? Let's see where this line comes out, but we might finally have some value on the Over.
Thunder @ Jazz - Utah by 6 with a total of 210.5. This seems like a lot of points for Utah to be laying against one of the hottest teams in the NBA, doesn't it? And considering Oklahoma has actually won all 3 games with the Jazz this season straight up, it seems like even a few more too many, if that makes any sense. Why is the team that won all 3 meetings getting 6 points? Are we being suckered into taking the Thunder? Both teams are playing for positioning in the playoffs, with Utah in a 4-way tie for 2nd place, and Oklahoma just 1.5 games back of that tie. It's tough to see a huge advantage either way, so I have to lean to the team getting the points, the Thunder. This total looks like a lot of points, and it's not a great value, but both teams have been executing beautifully on offense and making shots. I suppose the concern is that the Thunder are saving something for the game with Denver tomorrow, but that seems silly. Tiny, tiny lean to the Over.
Spurs @ Kings - San Antonio by 6 with a total of 193. There's no great play in this game, that's the honest truth. The Spurs are playing with desire, so you know they're going to bring another strong game, but to be laying 6 in a hostile road venue is never an easy spot. I believe San Antonio's got a decent shot to cover just because of the motivational issue, but the big public money on Spurs is going to make sure this line isn't a good value. No lean on the side. The total of 193 seems awfully low for two teams that can really make some noise on offense, and two teams that have played 3 games with totals set up over 200, and all 3 went over. Something outrageously fishy about this line. I think you have to look at the Under or nothing.
Trend Report - Tuesday
By Ed Meyer
Hawks at Bobcats – The Hawks are 6-0 ATS (8.4 ppg) since March 19, 2009 after a home win in which they outshot their opponent by at least 10 percent. The Bobcats are 0-9 ATS (-5.3 ppg) since December 12, 2004 with at least one day of rest after a road loss in which they had at least five fewer turnovers than their season-to-date average.
Bucks at Bulls – The Bucks are 8-0 ATS (7.2 ppg) since December 31, 2008 on the road after a win in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Bulls are 5-0 ATS (4.2 ppg) since April 09, 2009 after a game in which they were whistled for fewer than 15 personal fouls.
Raptors at Cavaliers – The Raptors are 0-5-1 ATS (-7.6 ppg) since February 03, 2009 on the road after a loss in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points lower than their season-to-date average. The Cavaliers are 0-5 ATS (-4.5 ppg) since March 26, 2010.
Rockets at Grizzlies – The Rockets are 0-9 ATS (-7.4 ppg) since November 21, 2009 when they have a revenge game at home next. The Grizzlies are 6-0 ATS (10.0 ppg) since October 31, 2008 with at least one day of rest after a double digit road loss in which they had fewer than fifteen assists.
Thunder at Jazz – The Jazz are 8-0-1 ATS (8.8 ppg) since May 26, 2007 at home with 3+ days rest.
Spurs at Kings – The Spurs are 6-0 ATS (11.9 ppg) since February 06, 2010 and when facing a team they beat in their previous two match-ups of the season. The Kings are 0-7 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since April 07, 2009 after a home loss in which their DPA was negative.
Pistons at 76ers – The Pistons are 0-10 ATS (-7.5 ppg) since February 04, 2009 with two or more days of rest after a game in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers. The 76ers are 10-0 ATS (8.9 ppg) since March 26, 2001 with two or more days of rest when they have lost their last three games SU and ATS. The 76ers are 0-6 ATS (-7.7 ppg) since November 17, 2003 at home off an overtime loss as a dog.
Warriors at Wizards – The Warriors are 0-8 ATS (-12.6 ppg) since November 10, 2004 on the road with at least one day of rest after a game on the road in which they allowed less than 40% from the field. The Warriors are 7-0 ATS (8.9 ppg) since February 16, 2003 with at least one day of rest off a win of four points or fewer on the road in which they held a double digit lead. The Wizards are 0-6 ATS (-4.8 ppg) since December 21, 2008 when playing an isolated non-conference opponent (vs non-conf with two conf opponents before and after).
Tips and Trends
Boston Celtics at New York Knicks
Celtics (-5.5, O/U 208.5): Boston is fighting hard down the stretch of the regular season, as they are trying to catch Atlanta for the #3 seed in the Eastern Conference. Boston is currently 48-28 SU and 31-43-2 ATS overall this season. The Celtics are 24-13 SU on the road this year, easily one of the best road teams in the NBA this season. To be more specific, Boston is 21-1 SU on the road in Atlantic Division play of late. The Celtics have already beaten the Knicks 3 times this season, so it's odd to see this spread be so low today. In the 3 other games this season, the Celtics were between a 9-10 point favorite. The Celtics come into tonight off a hard fought win over the Cavaliers, so some might think this is a letdown spot for Boston. That SU win over Cleveland snapped a 3 game SU losing streak. The Celtics have lost their past 4 games ATS as the listed favorite. All 5 starters average double digits for the Celtics this season, led by Paul Pierce. Pierce averages 18.2 PPG this season, including shooting 85% from the free throw line this season.
Celtics are 4-0 ATS last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 6-1 last 7 games as a road favorite.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 110 (OVER - Total of the Day)
Knicks: New York is back home after a 5 game road trip that saw them go a paltry 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS. Many will question whether the Knicks are playing with any purpose this late in the season. After all, the Knicks are 27-49 SU and 35-40-1 ATS overall this season. Only 4 teams in the Eastern Conference have a worse record than New York does. Heck, some New York fans would prefer them to lose every game going forward as it gives them a better chance for a higher draft pick. One player who isn't quitting on this season is C David Lee. Lee averaged 24.6 PPG and 11.6 RPG during this recent road trip. For the season, Lee leads the team with 20.4 PPG and 11.9 RPG. The Knicks are 16-22 SU this season at home, including winners of 3 of their past 4 games SU. Unfortunately New York has only played 3 home games in nearly the past month. The Knicks are 8-9 ATS as the listed home underdog this season. For New York to win any games to end the season, they will have to improve their defense. The Knicks have allowed their past 7 opponents to score at least 103 PTS.
Knicks are 21-9 ATS last 30 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 6-0 last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.
Key Injuries - G Tracy McGrady (knee) is questionable.
F Wilson Chandler (groin) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 107
Oklahoma City Thunder at Utah Jazz
Thunder: If you polled the rest of the potential Western Conference playoff teams, the one team nobody would want to play is the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder are a young team that is gaining more and more confidence as the season wears on. This Thunder team is hot right now, winners of their past 4 games SU. Oklahoma City is 48-28 SU and 45-31 ATS overall this season. The Thunder are currently in 6th place in the Western Conference, only 1.5 games behind the logjam of teams tied for 2nd in the Conference. Oklahoma City already owns a SU win in Utah this season, winning by 10 PTS in late November as an 8 point underdog. The Thunder are 19-11 ATS this season as the listed underdog. In their current 4 game winning streak, the Thunder have scored at least 109 PTS in each contest. F Kevin Durant has been simply amazing this season, and he just became the franchise leader in PTS scored in a season, surpassing Dale Ellis in 1988-1989. Durant is 2nd in the NBA in scoring, averaging 29.7 PPG this season. PG Russell Westbrook and F Jeff Green are the other Thunder players averaging double figures in PTS this season.
Thunder is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.
Over is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 road games.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 100
Jazz (-6, O/U 210.5): Despite playing well of late, revenge will certainly be the word of the day for Utah tonight. Utah has lost all 3 meetings SU to the Thunder this season, and are on the verge of being swept by the Thunder franchise for the 1st time in 27 years. Utah has been playing great of late, winning 7 of their past 10 games SU. The Jazz are 50-27 SU and 47-27-3 ATS overall this season, and are currently tied for 2nd in the Western Conference playoff standings. These final 5 games will be crucial for the Jazz, as there are 4 teams tied for the 2nd spot in the Western Conference. Utah is coming off one of their worst performances of the season, losing SU by double digits to the Lakers. Playing in front of their home crowd will be a huge advantage tonight, as the Jazz are 31-8 SU at home this season. Utah needs to handle their business better within their division, as they are only 7-8 SU in the Northwest Division. The Jazz have won 9 straight games SU at home, averaging 113.7 PPG in those contests. F Carlos Boozer leads the Jazz with season averages of 19.8 PPG and 10.6 RPG this season.
Jazz are 23-6 ATS last 29 games following a SU loss.
Under is 6-0 last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Key Injuries - F Andrei Kirilenko (calf) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 112 (Side of the Day)