Game of the day: Celtics at Cavaliers
By: Marc Lawrence
Unlike the Phoenix Suns winning their second-round series in a four-game sweep, No. 1 seed Cleveland finds itself in a battle with Boston with the series knotted at 2-2.
Ragin’ Rondo
Rajon Rondo’s accomplishment in Game 4 will certainly go down in Celtics lore as one of the best playoff performance’s ever.
His 29 points, 13 assists and 18 rebounds led Boston to a 97-87 victory Sunday at the Garden. All this from a 6–foot-1 point guard.
Rondo’s 18 boards were more than half of the Cavaliers’ total of 33.
“His definitely dominating this series at the point guard position," Cleveland’s LeBron James told reporters.
With 21.8 points, 13 assists, 8.3 rebounds and 1.3 steals in four games, that much is obvious.
Rondo’s game is also creating serious matchup problems for the Cavs. Putting LeBron on Rondo leaves Paul Pierce with a substantial size mismatch against Cleveland smaller guards, Mo Williams or Delonte West. And the last thing the Cavs want to do is rouse Pierce, who's having a dreadful series (11.8 PPG, on 32 percent shooting).
Don’t be surprised to find James play Rondo straight up and the Cavs defend Pierce with Antawn Jamison or Anthony Parker.
"If the opportunity presents itself, I would take the challenge," James said.
"I would love to. Maybe it's something we should explore… I have no problem with taking Rondo for the entire game. But they kind of counter what we put on the court so I can't switch off on him."
Trouble in paradise
James took a subtle swipe at head coach Mike Brown after Sunday’s game.
He said it was "kind of surprising" that Shaquille O'Neal didn't return to the game after picking up his fifth foul with over 11 minutes left in the fourth and Boston leading 76-72. The Celtics immediately went on an 8-0 run with Shaq out of the game.
If it wasn't for Shaq's solid 17-point performance in 28 minutes the final 10-point deficit might have been worse.
It was evident that Cleveland entered Sunday’s game thinking that the 29 points they won by Friday night was enough to win both games.
Strangely, aside from instituting a poor offensive game plan, Brown refuses to allow 7-foot-3 center Zydrunas Ilgauskas, who together with O’Neal combine to average 12.1 rebounds per game, to get off the bench. As a result the Cavs continue to be out-rebounded by a smaller, less-athletic Celtics team.
Mark it down.If the Celtics take Game 5 in Cleveland, Brown can kiss his job - and LeBron’s future in Cleveland - good-bye.
Lone ranger
Most NBA champions feature a superstar and a sidekick. An MVP alone cannot cut down the nets.
From the Lakers’ glory days of Magic Johnson and James Worthy, to Boston’s Bill Russell and John Havlicek, or Larry Bird and Kevin McHale, and on to Chicago’s Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen, every legendary championship team possessed a terrific tandem.
The question that LeBron James struggles with these days is, “Who is my Tonto?”
It’s certainly not Mo Williams or Antawn Jamison. Bettors know that, for sure.
If James is to win an NBA championship in Cleveland, O’Neal needs to become the Robin to his Batman.
Celtic green
The Celtics made NBA history last week – just not the good kind.
When general manager Danny Ainge was fined $25,000 for throwing a towel in Game 2 while trying to distract J.J. Hickson as the Cavaliers forward attempted a free throw, the Celtics became the first team in league history to have a player, coach and GM fined in the same season.
The NBA didn't start keeping records on its fines until the early 1990s.Back in the day, Ainge's towel toss probably would have drawn scorn at the most.
If no one else makes a contribution to the league's unnamed charity fund, the Celtics will have paid out a league-leading $175,000 in fines this season, led by Rasheed Wallace's $100,000. Ainge ($25,000), coach Doc Rivers ($25,000) and Glen Davis ($25,000) round out the list.
When informed of the team's unusual trifecta, Davis commented, “I don't feel so alone anymore.”
Wallace, though, has a problem with the fact the league doesn't name the charities that benefit from the fine money.
“They say that's where it goes, but I'm not so sure,'' said Wallace.
Stats to ponder
- No. 1 seeds off a loss as a favorite are 19-7-2 ATS, including 7-1-1 off a double-digit loss in Round 2.
- Cleveland is 11-20 ATS at home versus conference foes this season.
- Boston is 11-28-1 ATS versus an opponent off a loss this season.
Celtics at Cavs - Game 5
By Kevin Rogers
The second round of the NBA playoffs has been uneventful with three series being runaways. Only one series has kept basketball fans' attention with the Celtics and Cavaliers tied at two games apiece following Boston's equalizer on Sunday at home. The series now shifts back to Cleveland as each team tries to find enough consistency to make it out of this round and to the Eastern Conference Finals.
Before we look ahead to Tuesday's contest at Quicken Loans Arena, let's look back at how home teams perform with the series tied at 2-2 over the last few postseasons. Since 2005-06, home clubs (all favorites) are 20-5 SU and 14-11 ATS in Game 5 of a playoff series even at two games apiece. If we close it down to starting in the 2008 postseason, home teams are a sparkling 14-1 SU and 10-5 ATS.
Since last season, home 'chalk' is 8-1 SU and 7-2 SU in this spot, including a 2-1 SU/ATS this postseason. Below are the results over the last two postseasons in this situation.
2008-09 Game 5's tied at 2-2
Home Team Away Team SU/ATS Result
Boston 106 Chicago 104 W/L
Orlando 91 Philadelphia 78 W/W
Atlanta 106 Miami 91 W/W
Boston 92 Orlando 88 W/W
L.A. Lakers 118 Houston 78 W/W
L.A. Lakers 103 Denver 94 W/W
2009-10 Game 5's tied at 2-2
Home Team Away Team SU/ATS Result
L.A. Lakers 111 Oklahoma City 87 W/W
Atlanta 87 Milwaukee 91 L/L
Phoenix 107 Portland 88 W/W
The Cavs are 3-1 SU/ATS since the 2006 playoffs in Game 5's with the series knotted up at 2-2, but only one of those games has come at home. Cleveland covered three times as a road underdog, including twice at Detroit, but the ATS loss came in an overtime home win against the Wizards in 2006.
Boston is a perfect 5-0 SU the last five postseasons, but just 2-3 ATS with the series tied at two apiece. The one difference this time around is the Celtics will be playing on the road in this situation for the first time.
Celtics at Cavaliers - 8:05 PM EST
The Celtics/Cavs series has been all about two players, LeBron James and Rajon Rondo. James is averaging 29.7 ppg in this series, while putting up 36.5 ppg in Cleveland's two victories in Game 1 and 3. Rondo has turned into a king for the C's by averaging 21.8 ppg and 13 assists/game in this series, including a triple-double in the Game 4 triumph.
Past James and Rondo, the keys are the supporting roles for each squad, starting with the Big Three of Boston. Paul Pierce and Ray Allen have each struggled from downtown, combining to shoot 10-41 (Pierce 4-18, Allen 6-23), while Kevin Garnett has been extremely consistent by averaging 17 ppg in the playoffs and 18.2 ppg against the Cavs. Antawn Jamison has stepped up after being limited to seven points in the series opener by averaging 16.6 ppg the last three games. Mo Williams has clearly been schooled by Rondo, but the Cavs' point guard has tallied 32 points on 12-22 shooting in the two victories. In the two defeats, Williams is 4-18 from the floor for just 17 points.
Boston has outplayed Cleveland for 2 ½ games of this series, but only has two wins to show for it, as Doc Rivers' team needs to grab at least one more in Cleveland to claim this series. The outside shooting has dictated each team's results in the series as Boston has shot poorly from beyond the arc. For the exception of a 9-19 performance from downtown in the Game 2 win, the Celtics have combined to shoot 9-47 in the other three games from beyond the arc. Cleveland has struggled from deep in the losses, nailing only 4 of 21 treys in each of the two defeats.
The Cavs need to shoot well, and when they do, they have been successful. Cleveland shot lights out in the Game 3 blowout by knocking down 59.5% of its shots from the floor, while shooting a solid 48% in the series opener. The numbers were identical in the losses, hitting just 40% of their shots in the Game 2 and Game 4 setbacks.
Cleveland is 8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS this season at home off a loss, while going 7-1 SU and 4-4 ATS at the "Q" following a road defeat. Boston is a profitable 8-5 SU/ATS on the highway off a home victory, including a 5-2 mark to the 'over' as a road underdog in this situation.
From a totals standpoint, the Celtics are 6-0 to the 'over' the last six games off an 'under,' while the Cavs have hit the 'over' in five of the previous seven following a game in which they scored less than 100 points. Boston started the season by struggling against teams off a loss, but the C's have improved greatly in this spot by winning and covering four of the last five on the road versus clubs off a defeat. The 'over' has profited nicely in this spot as well, as since the All-Star Break the Celtics are 14-4 to the 'over' against teams off a loss, including a 10-1 'over' run the last 11 games.
The Cavs are listed as 7 ½-point favorites at most spots, while the total is set at 193 ½. The game will be televised nationally on TNT.
Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood:
It's amazing that only one series in the first round finished in a sweep when the Magic knocked the Bobcats out in four games. The second round can see three sweeps Los Angeles finishes off its series against Utah. Phoenix advanced on by exorcising its playoff demons with the elimination of San Antonio in four games, while Orlando easily dismissed Atlanta.
I'll echo what many have seen and said following Steve Nash's gutsy performance in the series clincher against the Spurs. The two-time MVP played with one eye open for the final quarter and hit several big shots to boost Phoenix to the Western Conference Finals. If fans think Nash is over the hill, check out these numbers: 50% shooting from the floor, 42% from three-point range, and 93% from the line, including averaging a double-double. Steve Kerr doesn't look too bad for dumping Shawn Marion and Shaquille O'Neal, while not trading Amare Stoudemire at the deadline.
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NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Boston (6-3 SU and ATS) at Cleveland (6-3, 4-5 ATS)
The top-seeded Cavaliers, who got a split of Games 3 and 4 in Boston to reclaim home-court advantage in this best-of-7 conference semifinal series, return to Quicken Loans Arena for Game 5 against the fourth-seeded Celtics.
Cleveland followed Friday’s 124-95 blowout win in Boston with Sunday’s 97-87 loss as a 1½-point favorite in Game 4. LeBron James, who had 38 points in the Game 3 rout, was held to a modest 22 points, along with nine rebounds and eight assists, and he committed seven turnovers. The Cavs were also outrebounded 47-33.
Rajon Rondo keyed Boston’s bounce-back win with a prolific triple-double of 29 points, 18 rebounds and 13 assists, and Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett added 18 points apiece. The Celts shot 44.7 percent (34 of 76), despite a lousy 1-for-14 effort from three-point range (7.1 percent).
Cleveland was humbled in Game 2 at home, losing 104-86 as a six-point chalk, but is still a solid 39-7 SU at the Q this season (3-1 in the postseason. However, the Cavs are a meager 19-27 ATS at home (2-4 in the playoffs), averaging 102.7 ppg on 49.4 percent shooting and giving up 94.5 (44.1 percent shooting). Boston is 28-17 on the highway (23-21-1 ATS), netting 98.0 ppg (47.7 percent shooting) while allowing 94.4 ppg (44.4 percent shooting). The Celts have split their two postseason roadies both SU and ATS.
These rivals have split eight meetings this season, with the SU winner covering every time, and the SU victor has cashed in 11 straight clashes overall. Against the Celtics, Cleveland is on ATS runs of 20-9-2 overall, 8-3 in the playoffs and 7-2 at home, though the underdog has cashed in four of the last five meetings, including the last three in a row.
The Cavaliers are 19-8-1 ATS in their last 28 second-round playoff games, 8-4 ATS in their last 11 starts against Atlantic Division foes and 4-1 ATS in their last five following a non-cover. That said, they remain on ATS slides of 6-13 overall, 3-8 at home, 0-5 after a day off, 2-8 against winning teams, 4-11 as a chalk and 4-9 following a SU loss.
The Celtics are on pointspread purges 6-15 in the second round, 2-9 coming off a SU win and 2-8 following a spread-cover, but they are on a 24-11 ATS run as a road pup of five to 10½ points and are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 as a playoff ‘dog of any price.
The under is 19-7 in Cleveland’s last 26 conference semifinal contests and 4-1 in its last five games after a day off, but the Cavs are otherwise on “over” surges of 4-0 after a non-cover, 12-3 against the Atlantic Division and 6-1 as a playoff chalk of five to 10½ points. Likewise, Boston is on “over” sprees of 12-6 overall, 5-2 on the road, 8-3 against the Central Division, 5-0 after either a SU or an ATS win and 7-3 as a pup, though the under has hit in six of its last eight second-round playoff starts.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in two of the last three games, with Game 4 failing to hit the 195-point price. However, but the over is still 6-2 in this season’s eight head-to-head meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND
NBA Playoff RoundUp For 5/11
By Dan Bebe
Celtics @ Cavaliers - Cleveland by 8 with a total of 195. This is a pretty powerful number for the Cavs, considering the series is tied, and aside from the blowout win that both teams have posted, the other two games have been pretty evenly matched. And that, to some degree, makes me think Cleveland comes back with a vengeance in this one. Both teams have seen the best the other has to offer, and I believe that Cleveland is still the better team. The series, thus far, has seemed to hinge on whether or not King James is at his most aggressive. He was in the 2nd half of game one, and the Cavs mounted a furious comeback. He wasn't in game two, and Cleveland got worked. He was hyper-aggressive in game three, and Cleveland dominated, and he seemed to defer a tad in game four, and Rajon Rondo's monster game gave the Celts a win. Mo Williams hasn't been a huge impact player, and it might have something to do with getting beat on defense by Rondo over and over again, and that's hurting Cleveland. Antawn Jamison has stepped up nicely, and Shaq is actually playing well, but the Cavs need Williams' shooting, and something tells me he has a nice game five back at home. Will it be enough to cover this rather hefty number? That's a tough question. I was desperately hoping we'd see this line near 6 or 6.5, but at 7.5 we're starting to talk about a game that's bordering on a runaway. Paul Pierce didn't have a good game four, and the Celtics still won. Admittedly, Tony Allen probably won't play that well again on the road, but so many factors are counterbalancing one another, here. If I had to pick a side, I'd take Cleveland for the 9-10 point win, but it's a tough one, that's for sure. The total of 195 reflects a Boston-style game in the last meeting, but I just wonder if Cleveland tries to get things moving again back on their home court. Too many turnovers for the Cavs, and not enough Lebron-domination led to a very low final score. I can't help but think this one might creep up over the total at first glance. However, as we all know, as Playoff series wear on, scores tend to get lower. Teams learn each other, things get more physical, each possession gets more intense and drawn out, and guys start to get tired. This number is pretty accurate, but I think because we like Cleveland, we have to like the Over just a tiny bit. Touch and go, to be sure, and while the lean on the side will likely not change, the lean on the total is subject to change.
NBA News and Notes
Cavaliers trailed at half in three of four series games; they were 4-21 on arc in Game 3; their bench combined to shoot just 3-12 for game- James needs some support, or else. Starting Gs were 6-16 in Game 4, 8-12 in Game 3, after being 3-16 in Game 2; what they shoot is an indicator of how Cavs are playing. Celtics held Cleveland to 40.3% from floor and only three offensive rebounds in Game 4. Boston was just 1-14 from arc in Game 4, still won; you know the NBA would like a dramatic series, as the other three series in this round all ended in four-game sweeps.
Tips and Trends
Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers
Celtics: Boston refuses to give up in their series with Cleveland, as they won Game 4 to even up their series at 2-2. Boston used their experience and their defense to earn the big win and keep their upset dreams alive. This is arguably the Celtics last stand, as the nucleus of the team is getting up in years. The one way the Celtics are staying young is the fine play of PG Rajon Rondo. Rondo had 29 PTS, 18 rebounds, and 13 assists in a dynamic Game 4 performance. Rondo filled the stat sheet like only 2 players in NBA Playoff history, Wilt Chamberlain and Oscar Robertson. Rondo has had a breakout playoffs thus far, with Game 4 being the obvious highlight as he single handily kept the Celtics championship hopes alive. Rondo leads the Celtics in PPG, RPG, and APG this year in the playoffs thus far. F Kevin Garnett is averaging 17 PPG and making better than 52% of his shots during the playoffs. Boston has been a great road team all season, so they will look to win in Cleveland for the 3rd time this season tonight. The Celtics are 28-17 SU and 23-21-1 ATS in road contests this season. Boston is 0-2 ATS as a road underdog between 6.5 and 9 PTS this year.
Celtics are 2-9 ATS last 11 games following a SU win.
Over is 7-3 last 10 games as an underdog.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 89
Cavaliers (-7.5, O/U 193.5): Cleveland entered this playoff series as the odds on favorite to win the Championship, yet they are stuck in a battle with Boston. Cleveland has alternated wins and losses against the Celtics, as the series returns back to Boston tied 2-2. The Cavaliers were dominated by Rajon Rondo in Game 4, and it appears that F LeBron James will draw the defensive assignment in Game 5. The reigning MVP was also voted to the All-Defensive team this season. The Cavaliers only scored 87 PTS in Game 4, ultimately losing by 10 to Boston. Cleveland was held under 90 PTS for the 3rd time in 8 overall meetings with the Celtics this season. James is averaging 30.9 PPG this post-season, making 54% of his field goal attempts along the way. F Antawn Jamison is averaging 17.1 PPG during the playoffs, as he continues to be scoring option #2 for the Cavaliers. Cleveland is 39-7 SU and 19-26-1 ATS in home games this season. Cleveland is 5-1 ATS as a home favorite between 6.5 and 9 PTS this season.
Cavs are 2-5 ATS last 7 playoff games as a favorite.
Over is 6-2 last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600%.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 97 (UNDER - Total of the Day)