Wednesday's Best NBA Bets
Phoenix Suns at Indiana Pacers (+3.5, 226.5)
Consistently backing the Suns is as reckless as dating ex-convicts. Phoenix is just 2-3 against the spread since beating the Lakers and Celtics at the end of December.
Turnovers have and always will be the Suns’ biggest flaw as long as Steve Nash is running the show. While the pace-pushing sparkplug gets his teammates great looks, he can be too careless with the ball.
"I still think we turn it over too much for what we're doing," Suns coach Alvin Gentry told the Arizona Republic. "We should be getting a shot every possession. We turn the ball over 18-20 times.
“Realistically, we should be a 12-turnover team. The way I look at it is that's eight shots we don't get at the basket. If we're the leading field-goal-shooting team in the league, then that's four makes we don't get, so we're basically taking away eight points."
Look for the Pacers to cash in on the turnover margin and get some easy baskets in transition.
Pick: Pacers
Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors (N/A)
Who says you need to have depth to be successful in the Association? The Warriors seem to play their best ball when they’re down to eight warm bodies.
Golden State has covered the number in eight of its last night games despite injuries to Ronny Turiaf, Anthony Randolph and a slow recovery from Andris Biedrins.
Steady offensive production from Monta Ellis, rookie Stephen Curry and veteran wing Corey Maggette is all coach Don Nelson needs to stay competitive – that and of course home court.
The Warriors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games.
Pick: Warriors
Wednesday NBA Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Wednesday NBA card is filled to the brim with 11 games, including intriguing matchups in the later tip-offs. The Lakers play the second end of a back-to-back in Dallas, while the Magic continues a four-game road trip in Denver against the Nuggets.
Lakers at Mavs - 8:35 PM EST
Los Angeles and Dallas meet up for the third time this season after the two teams split the first two meetings at Staples Center. The Lakers will be playing with no rest after Tuesday's game at San Antonio, while the Mavs have been off since Saturday's 18-point loss to the Jazz.
Dallas has struggled mightily at home against the number recently, going 1-12 ATS the last 13 at American Airlines Center. The Mavs blew out the Lakers, 94-80, in late October, easily cashing as 7 ½-point road underdogs. L.A. got revenge on Dallas on January 3, destroying the Mavs, 131-96 as 6 ½-point 'chalk.'
The Lakers have played each of the last five games without power forward Pau Gasol, who is nursing a hamstring injury. His status for Wednesday is 'questionable,' as the Lakers are 3-6 ATS the last nine on the road. Los Angeles is 0-6 ATS this season on the road against teams above .500, while going 2-4 SU. Both Josh Howard and Drew Gooden missed Saturday's defeat to Utah, as each player will be a game-time decision for Dallas.
Magic at Nuggets - 9:05 PM EST
Orlando will have a tough stretch upcoming on its four-game trip, battling the Nuggets, Blazers, and Lakers over the next few nights. Denver is slowly returning to health after Carmelo Anthony came back to the lineup for Monday's victory over Minnesota. Anthony missed the previous five games with a knee ailment (2-2-1 ATS), as the Nuggets won and covered both times as an underdog against the Jazz and Cavs.
The Magic has struggled away from Amway Arena lately, going 1-6 SU/ATS the last seven on the road, including losses to the Pacers, Bulls, Wizards, and Heat in this stretch. Orlando is 2-1 ATS as a road 'dog, and 13-4 ATS in the regular season when getting points on the road since November 2008.
The Nuggets are just 4-12-1 ATS over the last 17 games, including a 2-11 ATS mark as a favorite. Denver is 3-6 ATS at the Pepsi Center after starting the season 7-3 ATS at home. George Karl's team has covered four of the last five home meetings with the Magic, but Orlando drubbed Denver last January, 106-88.
What else to watch for:
The Spurs and Thunder get together at the Ford Center for an intriguing battle between two teams separated by one victory. Oklahoma City has been solid at home this season, but is just 2-4 ATS as a home 'dog. The Thunder upended the Spurs in San Antonio, 101-98 as 8 ½-point 'dogs in mid-November, the fourth cover in the last five meetings for OKC. The Spurs are 2-4 SU/ATS with no rest this season, while going 'under' the total all six times.
Two of the hotter teams outside the Western Conference playoff picture meet up in New Orleans when the Hornets host the Clippers. Chris Paul and the Hornets have won six of seven, while going 5-2 ATS in this stretch. However, New Orleans is 14-3 SU at home with all 14 wins by nine points or less. The Clippers, meanwhile, have covered six straight games heading into Tuesday's matchup at Memphis.
The Bucks and Blazers take the court for a 10:00 EST tip at the Rose Garden, as Milwaukee goes for its first win on a six-game road trip. The Bucks dropped the first two games at the Lakers and Suns, as the team lost sharpshooter Michael Redd for the season with a torn ACL and MCL in his knee. Milwaukee has hit the 'under' in four straight games, while Portland is riding a four-game 'over' streak. The Blazers are 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS over the last seven games, as Portland tries to avenge an overtime loss at the Bradley Center in mid-December.
The Heat tries to bounce back after dropping consecutive games to the Clippers and Jazz when Miami travels to the Bay Area to battle the Warriors. Golden State couldn't buy a cover leading up to Christmas, but the Warriors have been money in the bank recently, cashing eight of their last nine games. Don Nelson's team is protecting its home court, going 4-0 ATS the last four at Oracle Arena, with covers against the Celtics, Suns, and Cavs. The Heat is 2-6 ATS the last eight, while failing to break 100 points six times in this stretch.
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Washington Wizards vs. Atlanta Hawks
Divisional bragging rights will be on the line on Wednesday when the Washington Wizards and the Atlanta Hawks meet at Philips Arena.
Antawn Jamison had 31 points and 10 rebounds for Washington in its 99-90 loss to Detroit on Tuesday night.
Detroit cashed as 5-point road underdogs, while the teams played UNDER the 199-point total set by sportsbooks.
Joe Johnson dropped 36 points to lift the Hawks past the Celtics 102-96 on Monday night.
Atlanta cashed as 4.5-point road underdogs, while the teams played OVER the 189.5-point total posted by sportsbooks.
Current streak:
Washington has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Washington: 12-24 SU, 13-23 ATS
Atlanta: 24-13 SU, 25-12 ATS
Washington most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 5-5
Before playing Chicago are 4-6
After playing Detroit are 3-7
After a loss are 4-6
Atlanta most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 6-4
Before playing Phoenix are 3-7
After playing Boston are 5-5
After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Washington's last 13 games when playing Atlanta
Washington is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Washington is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games on the road
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington
Atlanta is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Atlanta's last 16 games at home
Next up:
Washington at Chicago, Friday, January 15
Atlanta home to Phoenix, Friday, January 15
New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
If familiarity breeds contempt, there should be animosity aplenty on Wednesday when the New York Knicks and the Philadelphia 76ers meet at Wachovia Center.
Nate Robinson led New York with 19 points in its 106-88 loss to Oklahoma City on Monday night.
Oklahoma City covered as 5-point home favorites, while the teams played UNDER the 201-point total set by oddsmakers.
Andre Iguodala had 18 points, eight assists, and four steals, as the 76ers edged the Hornets 96-92 on Monday night.
Philadelphia covered as 1.5-point home favorites, while the game played UNDER the 200-point total set by oddsmakers.
Current streak:
New York has lost 2 straight games.
Philadelphia has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
New York: 15-22 SU, 18-19 ATS
Philadelphia: 12-25 SU, 16-21 ATS
New York most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 5-5
Before playing Toronto are 4-6
After playing Oklahoma City are 3-7
After a loss are 5-5
Philadelphia most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 5-5
Before playing Sacramento are 5-5
After playing New Orleans are 6-4
After a win are 2-8
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of New York's last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New York's last 6 games
New York is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
New York is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing New York
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New York
Philadelphia is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against New York
Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New York
Next up:
New York home to Toronto, Friday, January 15
Philadelphia home to Sacramento, Friday, January 15
Phoenix Suns vs. Indiana Pacers
The Phoenix Suns and the Indiana Pacers will both be gunning for a victory on Wednesday when they meet at Conseco Fieldhouse.
Steve Nash had 30 points, 11 assists, and seven rebounds to lift the Suns past the Bucks 105-101 on Monday night.
Phoenix couldn't cover as 9-point home favorites, while the game played UNDER the 213-point total listed by sportsbooks.
Danny Granger drained 23 points to lead the Pacers past the Raptors 105-101 on Monday night.
Indiana covered as 2-point home favorites, while the teams played UNDER the 216.5-point total set by sportsbooks.
Team records:
Phoenix: 24-14 SU, 21-16-1 ATS
Indiana: 12-25 SU, 15-22 ATS
Phoenix most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 9-1
Before playing Atlanta are 8-2
After playing Milwaukee are 7-3
After a win are 2-8
Indiana most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 2-8
Before playing New Jersey are 4-6
After playing Toronto are 4-6
After a win are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
Phoenix is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Indiana
Phoenix is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Phoenix's last 9 games on the road
Phoenix is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Indiana is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indiana's last 8 games
Indiana is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Indiana is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games
Next up:
Phoenix at Atlanta, Friday, January 15
Indiana at New Jersey, Friday, January 15
Boston Celtics vs. New Jersey Nets
Divisional bragging rights will be on the line on Wednesday when the Boston Celtics and the New Jersey Nets meet at Izod Center.
Rajon Rondo had 26 points and seven assists for Boston in its 102-96 loss to Atlanta on Monday night.
Atlanta cashed as 4.5-point road underdogs, while the teams played OVER the 189.5-point total posted by sportsbooks.
The Nets lost to San Antonio 97-85 as a 14-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (196).
Brook Lopez led New Jersey with 28 points and 11 rebounds, while Yi Jianlian had 16 points.
Current streak:
New Jersey has lost 5 straight games.
Team records:
Boston: 26-10 SU, 16-20 ATS
New Jersey: 3-34 SU, 13-23-1 ATS
Boston most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 4-6
Before playing Chicago are 6-4
After playing Atlanta are 7-3
After a loss are 6-4
New Jersey most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 3-7
Before playing Indiana are 5-5
After playing San Antonio are 5-5
After a loss are 1-9
A few trends to consider:
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Jersey
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New Jersey
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games
Boston is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Jersey's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Jersey's last 7 games when playing at home against Boston
New Jersey is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Jersey's last 6 games when playing Boston
Next up:
Boston home to Chicago, Thursday, January 14
New Jersey home to Indiana, Friday, January 15
San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
The San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder will both be trying to pick up a win on Wednesday when they battle at Ford Center.
Tim Duncan went for 25 points and 13 rebounds, as the Spurs handled the Lakers 105-85 on Tuesday night.
San Antonio covered as 3-point home favorites, while the teams played UNDER the 193-point total set by sportsbooks.
Kevin Durant dropped 30 points, as the Thunder defeated the Knicks 106-88 on Monday night.
Oklahoma City covered as 5-point home favorites, while the teams played UNDER the 201-point total set by oddsmakers.
Current streak:
San Antonio has won 2 straight games.
Oklahoma City has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
San Antonio: 23-13 SU, 19-16-1 ATS
Oklahoma City: 21-16 SU, 22-15 ATS
San Antonio most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 7-3
Before playing Charlotte are 8-2
After playing LA Lakers are 6-4
After a win are 7-3
Oklahoma City most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 2-8
Before playing Dallas are 2-8
After playing New York are 3-7
After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games on the road
San Antonio is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Antonio is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
San Antonio is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
Oklahoma City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio
Oklahoma City is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing San Antonio
Next up:
San Antonio at Charlotte, Friday, January 15
Oklahoma City at Dallas, Friday, January 15
Los Angeles Clippers vs. New Orleans Hornets
The fans at New Orleans Arena will be treated to a game between the Los Angeles Clippers and the New Orleans Hornets when they take their seats on Wednesday.
Baron Davis went for 27 points, 12 boards, 12 assists, and five steals for Los Angeles in its 104-102 loss to Memphis on Tuesday night.
Memphis couldn't cover as 5-point home favorites, while the game played OVER the 199.5-point total listed by sportsbooks.
Emeka Okafor went for 20 points and 11 rebounds to lead New Orleans in its 96-92 loss to Philadelphia on Monday night.
Philadelphia covered as 1.5-point home favorites, while the game played UNDER the 200-point total set by oddsmakers.
Team records:
Los Angeles: 17-19 SU, 17-19 ATS
New Orleans: 19-17 SU, 17-19 ATS
Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 3-7
Before playing LA Lakers are 5-5
After playing Memphis are 4-6
After a loss are 7-3
New Orleans most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 5-5
Before playing Detroit are 6-4
After playing Philadelphia are 7-3
After a loss are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the LA Clippers last 5 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 6 of the LA Clippers last 7 games when playing New Orleans
LA Clippers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
LA Clippers are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
Next up:
LA Clippers at LA Lakers, Friday, January 15
New Orleans at Detroit, Friday, January 15
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Houston Rockets
The Minnesota Timberwolves and the Houston Rockets will both be trying to pick up a win on Wednesday when they battle at Toyota Center.
Corey Brewer paced Minnesota with 25 points and seven rebounds in its 105-94 loss to Denver on Monday night.
Denver failed to cover as 13.5-point home favorites, while the teams played UNDER the 215-point total posted by oddsmakers.
Trevor Ariza had 19 points and six rebounds for Houston in its 102-94 loss to Charlotte on Tuesday night.
Charlotte covered as 2.5-point home favorites, while the teams played OVER the 190.5-point total listed by sportsbooks.
Current streak:
Minnesota has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Minnesota: 8-31 SU, 18-20-1 ATS
Houston: 21-17 SU, 21-17 ATS
Minnesota most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 2-8
Before playing Memphis are 4-6
After playing Denver are 3-7
After a loss are 4-6
Houston most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 3-7
Before playing Miami are 3-7
After playing Charlotte are 6-4
After a loss are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing Houston
Minnesota is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Next up:
Minnesota at Memphis, Friday, January 15
Houston home to Miami, Friday, January 15
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks
The Los Angeles Lakers and the Dallas Mavericks will both be trying to pick up a win on Wednesday when they battle at American Airlines Center.
Andrew Bynum finished with 23 points and eight boards for Los Angeles in its 105-85 loss to San Antonio on Tuesday night.
San Antonio covered as 3-point home favorites, while the teams played UNDER the 193-point total set by sportsbooks.
Deron Williams scored 20 points on Saturday night as the Jazz grabbed a 111-93 win over the Mavericks.
The Mavericks had been favored by 7.5 points at home in that contest, while the combined score went OVER the night's posted total (196).
Team records:
Los Angeles: 29-9 SU, 16-22 ATS
Dallas: 25-12 SU, 18-19 ATS
Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 5-5
Before playing LA Clippers are 7-3
After playing San Antonio are 5-5
After a loss are 8-2
Dallas most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 5-5
Before playing Oklahoma City are 7-3
After playing Utah are 6-4
After a loss are 9-1
A few trends to consider:
LA Lakers are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the LA Lakers last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
LA Lakers are 19-6 SU in their last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the LA Lakers last 6 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
Dallas is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games at home
Next up:
LA Lakers home to LA Clippers, Friday, January 15
Dallas home to Oklahoma City, Friday, January 15
Orlando Magic vs. Denver Nuggets
The Orlando Magic and the Denver Nuggets will both be trying to pick up a win on Wednesday when they battle at Pepsi Center.
Dwight Howard had 30 points and 16 rebounds, as the Magic coasted over the Kings 109-88 on Tuesday night.
Orlando covered as 4-point road favorites, while the teams played UNDER the 206.5-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Carmelo Anthony netted 24 points to lead the Nuggets past the Timberwolves 105-94 on Monday night.
Denver failed to cover as 13.5-point home favorites, while the teams played UNDER the 215-point total posted by oddsmakers.
Current streak:
Orlando has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Orlando: 26-12 SU, 19-17-2 ATS
Denver: 24-14 SU, 17-20-1 ATS
Orlando most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 7-3
Before playing Portland are 5-5
After playing Sacramento are 8-2
After a win are 6-4
Denver most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 8-2
Before playing Utah are 7-3
After playing Minnesota are 7-3
After a win are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing Denver
Orlando is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Orlando's last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
Orlando is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
Denver is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games at home
Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Orlando
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Orlando
Next up:
Orlando at Portland, Friday, January 15
Denver home to Utah, Sunday, January 17
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Portland Trail Blazers
The Milwaukee Bucks and the Portland Trail Blazers will both be trying to pick up a win on Wednesday when they battle at Rose Garden.
Hakim Warrick dropped 21 points and grabbed 10 rebounds off the bench for Milwaukee in its 105-101 loss to Phoenix on Monday night.
Phoenix couldn't cover as 9-point home favorites, while the game played UNDER the 213-point total listed by sportsbooks.
The Trail Blazers lost to Cleveland 106-94 as a 5-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (190.5).
Brandon Roy led Portland with 34 points and LaMarcus Aldridge had 18 points and 13 rebounds.
Current streak:
Milwaukee has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Milwaukee: 15-20 SU, 19-16 ATS
Portland: 23-16 SU, 20-18-1 ATS
Milwaukee most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 5-5
Before playing Golden State are 5-5
After playing Phoenix are 4-6
After a loss are 3-7
Portland most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 4-6
Before playing Orlando are 6-4
After playing Cleveland are 5-5
After a loss are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing on the road against Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Milwaukee's last 13 games when playing Portland
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Portland's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Portland's last 8 games at home
Portland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Portland's last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Next up:
Milwaukee at Golden State, Friday, January 15
Portland home to Orlando, Friday, January 15
Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors
The Miami Heat and the Golden State Warriors will both be trying to pick up a win on Wednesday when they battle at Oracle Arena.
Michael Beasley dropped 20 points to lead Miami in its 118-89 loss to Utah on Monday night.
Utah covered as 7.5-point home favorites, while the game played OVER the 196.5-point total set by sportsbooks.
Corey Maggette went for 32 points and seven boards for Golden State in its 117-114 loss to Cleveland on Monday night.
Cleveland couldn't cover as 6-point road favorites, while the game played OVER the 212.5-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Current streak:
Miami has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Miami: 18-18 SU, 17-19 ATS
Golden State: 11-25 SU, 20-15-1 ATS
Miami most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 5-5
Before playing Houston are 7-3
After playing Utah are 5-5
After a loss are 5-5
Golden State most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 5-5
Before playing Milwaukee are 6-4
After playing Cleveland are 2-8
After a loss are 2-8
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing Golden State
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Golden State is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Golden State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing at home against Miami
Next up:
Miami at Houston, Friday, January 15
Golden State home to Milwaukee, Friday, January 15
L.A. Lakers (29-9, 16-22 ATS) at Dallas (25-12, 18-19 ATS)
The Lakers and Mavericks hook up for the third time this season, but the first time at American Airlines Center where Los Angeles caps a brief two-game, two-day Texas road trip.
L.A. went to San Antonio on Tuesday and got crushed 105-85 as a three-point underdog, losing Kobe Bryant to back spasms in the second quarter. The Lakers, who haven’t had injured All-Star forward Pau Gasol for the last five games, are 6-5 in their last 11, including losing four straight road games (0-4 ATS). For the season, Los Angeles is now just 8-6 SU and 4-10 ATS as a visitor.
The Lakers have followed up a five-game stretch in which they averaged 115.8 ppg by scoring just 91.4 ppg in the last five. Phil Jackson’s club was held under 100 points in all five contests after being held under triple digits just eight times through the first 33 games.
Dallas hasn’t played since Saturday’s 111-93 home loss to the Jazz, getting blown out as a 5½-point home favorite. The Mavs have struggled with consistency in recent weeks, going 7-5 SU and 5-7 ATS in their last 12. Dallas has also split its last six home games and has cashed just once in its last 12 contests at American Airlines Center.
The Mavericks went to L.A. for the second game of the season on Oct. 30 and shocked the Lakers 94-80 as a 7½-point road underdog to end a six-game slide in this rivalry. However, the Lakers got revenge in a big way Jan. 3, rolling 131-96 as a 6½-point home favorite. Dallas is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 clashes, but Los Angeles is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five trips to Big D. In fact, the visitor is on an 8-1-1 ATS roll in this series, and the underdog is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine.
Los Angeles, which has been a big money-burner this season, is in ATS ruts of 6-12 overall, 4-10 on the road, 0-3 as a ‘dog this year, 3-9 against Western Conference opponents and 3-8 when playing on the second night of a back-to-back situation. In addition to going 1-12 ATS in its last 13 home games, the Mavericks are in pointspread funks of 4-9 against Western Conference foes, 1-4 when facing Pacific Division squads and 0-6 when coming off three or more days of rest. On the bright side, Dallas has covered in 22 of 30 on Wednesday.
The under is 7-2 in the Lakers’ last nine against teams with a winning record, but the over is 7-3 in their last 10 games against Western Conference teams. Dallas is on “over” runs of 4-0 overall, 5-1 at home and 9-4 after three or more days off. The over is also 4-1 in the last five Mavericks-Lakers battles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS and OVER
Orlando (26-12, 20-18 ATS) at Denver (24-14, 17-20-1 ATS)
The Magic make their one and only stop of the season at the Pepsi Center in the Mile High City as they continue a four-game Western Conference road swing with a game against the Nuggets.
Orlando began its trip in Sacramento last night, using a 33-10 fourth quarter to knock off the Kings 109-88 as a four-point road favorite. Despite Tuesday’s victory, the Magic have followed an 18-5 SU run by losing four of their last six SU and ATS. They’re also 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight road games.
Denver has also been stumbling along recently, dropping seven of its last 12 overall while going 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 outings (3-6 ATS at home). During this 17-game stretch, the ‘dog is 13-3-1 ATS in Nuggets games. Most recently, the Nuggets pounded the TWolves 105-94 on Sunday, but fell short as a 14-point home favorite. George Karl’s club has won three straight at home (1-2 ATS) and is 16-3 SU at the Pepsi Center this season (but only 10-9 ATS).
The road team swept the season series between these clubs last year, with Orlando rolling 106-88 in Denver as a 1½-point underdog then losing 83-73 in Florida as a seven-point favorite. Prior to that, the home team had been on an 11-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry. Also, the favorite has gotten the cash in 12 of the last 16 series battles.
The SU winner has covered the spread in each of the Magic’s last 10 games overall and each of their last nine on the road, and the winner is 10-2-1 ATS in Denver’s last 13 games. Also, the winner has cashed in each of the last 13 meetings between these teams.
Orlando is 4-1 ATS in its last five Wednesday affairs, but otherwise is in ATS slides of 2-4 overall, 2-6 on the road, and 1-4 when playing on back-to-back nights. Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last six on Wednesday and 29-14 ATS in its last 43 against winning teams, but from there the Nuggets are on pointspread plunges of 4-12-1 overall, 1-4 at home, 2-5 against the Southeast Division and 0-6 when playing on one day of rest.
The Magic are in the midst of “under” runs of 6-1 on the road, 5-1 against the Western Conference and 4-0 against winning teams, while Denver is on “under” stretches of 6-2 overall, 5-0 versus winning teams and 9-4 when playing on one day of rest. Also, these teams have stayed low in each of their last four meetings.
On the flip side, the over is on streaks of 11-1 for Orlando on Wednesday, 6-0 for the Nuggets on Wednesday and 5-2 for the Nuggets against Southeast Division opponents.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NBA RoundUp For 1/13
By Dan Bebe
Knicks @ Sixers - This line is OFF (but never fear, as per the request yesterday, I'll try to pop in and update the missing lines). This game should be interesting for a few reasons. The Sixers continue to play 24 minutes of good basketball in home games, and 24 minutes of some other sport that doesn't involve a hoop or bouncing ball. I suppose you could call this a revenge game for the Knicks, if they even remember. The night was October 31, 2009, and the Sixers and Knicks played a true Halloween thriller, with Philly prevailing, yes, 141 to 127 in overtime in New York. Not surprisingly, that game went soaring over the posted total of 206, so I'll be quite curious to see where the oddsmakers open this one, given New York has been something of an Under team over the last 45 days. The inconsistent Sixers seem to bounce back and forth between up tempo and defensive games, and I hate trying to guess on their totals. With the Knicks recent focus on defense, though, I think this one has a chance to go Under, I'm just curious how oddsmakers deal with that ridiculous first meeting back in October. In terms of the side, the Sixers are coming off a pair of wins and covers, first in Detroit, then at home over the surging Hornets. They're playing, let's call it "decent" basketball, and my guess it that these two teams are going to be ranked pretty close on the power rankings. The Knicks are coming off back-to-back road losses, so the public might be a bit disenchanted with them, but the Knicks are the "big name" team among these two. I believe the value is with New York on revenge, but I really like the way the Sixers are playing when they're focused. This one could come down to the wire, and I see Philly winning by a narrow margin.
Wizards @ Hawks - Atlanta by 11 with a total of 205. This one is an horrifying spot for the Wizards, hitting the road off last night's home loss to the spiraling Pistons. It's going to be tough to make an argument for the road team here, as Washington is in just as much disarray as any team in the League, and while all the fed probes and investigations are going on, Flip Saunders is now suspending players (I believe Andray Blatche was the first) for conduct issues. Is there any chance this team pulls themselves together for a road back-to-back? I simply can't see it. Washington is 3-6 on the second half of back-to-backs, though that really isn't any worse than their season W/L record of 12-24, so we can't glean much from that stat. Maybe more worthwhile is a peek at the Wizards' inability to score on the road. They had been able to squeeze out a few close road games so far this year, but with their options becoming more and more limited on a daily basis, Atlanta might be too tall a task. Still, though, this isn't the world's best spot for the Hawks, and I'm inclined to think this side might be a pass. Atlanta is coming off another win over the Celtics, so this is the trademark letdown spot. It's the first game of a long, long homestand that features, among others, the Suns on Thursday. I don't trust either team in this spot. The total looks spot on. The Hawks are going to score over 100 against Washington, but I don't think the Wizards break 95.
Suns @ Pacers - Phoenix by 3.5 with a total of 226.5. We've seen lines like this before. Phoenix in a close spread on the road, those home dogs certainly look tasty, then Phoenix explodes for 20 points in a 4 minute span, and you're left wondering what the hell happened. The Suns seem to have gotten progressively worse on the road as this season has progressed. I'm not sure if it's fatigue or just that teams have tape of the Suns new players and how Alvin Gentry has worked them into the system, but whatever it is, the luster is starting to come off, just a bit. Since the beginning of December, the Suns are 1-7 on the road SU after starting the season 6-3 away from home. That is a stark dropoff, and it's come without any huge injuries or other large changes. This team was also an ATS monster in November, and that has cooled off a bit, as well, so I'm not sure if now isn't perhaps the best time to load up against the Suns on the road and close your eyes for 48 basketball minutes. This game is going to have some fireworks, that's for damn sure. The Pacers play an up-tempo game as well, not as crazy as the Suns, but they can fill it up, as evidenced by both teams scoring over 100 in each of the Pacers last 3 games. It's no coincidence, either, that these high-scoring affairs (2-1 O/U) have come since Danny Granger and Troy Murphy have returned and started to get their legs underneath them. Hell, it might be 3-0 O/U if the Raptors hadn't completely tuckered out in the second half of the last one. I do like the way Indy is playing, now that they're getting healthy, and I actually believe, even at this ridiculous number, there is some value on Indy and the Over.
Celtics @ Nets - This line is OFF. At least we can probably handicap Boston in this one. Let's see: Celtics coming off a maddening loss to the Hawks, what do they do? They take out their aggression. Last time, they beat up on Toronto (covering a road -1 spread by 6 points), and now they get to roll into Jersey to tackle this Junior Varsity they call the Nets. I think it's fairly safe to say that Boston, despite having a home date with the Bulls tomorrow, will probably still want to level someone to get back at the world for its cruel, cruel scheduling. Having 2 games with the Hawks sans-Kevin Garnett just wasn't right, and you can bet the farm on Boston for the final meeting of those teams this year. In the meantime, though, I'm expecting a large spread on this one, even though the Celtics clearly are not the same without their pubic-facial-haired leader. But really, what we can say about the Nets. They're 3-34, one of the worst teams in NBA history, and are actually a better ATS bet on the road, if only because those 10 point spreads become 16, and they can muster one extra back-door cover. That will be in play on this game, but I still lean Boston without even knowing the line. The Nets are coming home off a 3-game, 3-loss road trip (2-1 ATS), and if they can even so much as wake up, I'll be surprised. I also like a potential Under, as I know Boston's defense isn't the same these days, but it's still good enough to deal with these louts. Oh, and revenge is not an angle when you're dealing with a team that never expects to win.
Clippers @ Hornets - Hornets by 5.5 with a total of 192.5. You want to talk about a weird game to handicap, how about that Clippers/Grizzlies game last night? A broken water pipe not only delivered some sewer creatures a most distressing enema, it also took the Clippers out of their rhythm, and a pathetic 4th quarter allowed Memphis a raging comeback victory. I'm curious to see how the Clippers respond. This is a team that is clearly playing better basketball, but with Chris Kaman (back) and Marcus Camby (diarrhea) both questionable, I'm not sure I can advocate a play on this one. If anything, I'd peek at the total, but two key injuries might be too much to overcome. The Hornets are in the midst of one of the strangest schedules I can remember. They've alternated 2 road games with 1 or 2 home games since December 23rd, and that pattern continues until January 18th. So far, they're 4-0 at home (2-2 ATS), and 3-3 on the road (3-3 ATS, as well). So, it seems somewhat safe to think they'll win this game, especially over the tired, undermanned Clippers, but the question is by how much. The Hornets have won their 4 recent home games by 6, 4, 4 and 4, so covering 5.5 might be asking too much. I hate the side in this game - no lean, and almost surely, no play; the only thing that's keeping it alive is the Clippers double-revenge, including one loss to the Hornets at home. The total of 192.5 is probably pretty accurate, since I think they'll have a little bit of sluggish play early, and I think the Clippers will slow down late. Maybe a slight lean to the Under.
Spurs @ Thunder - Thunder by 1 with a total of 192.5. I simply can't advocate a play on the Spurs on the tail end of a back-to-back. That being said, we might be staring down the barrel of a potential middle opportunity. The Spurs are the more marquee team, and I would imagine we'll see a nice public wave of money coming towards San Antonio tomorrow afternoon. My guess (and I may end up being wrong) on this will be that the sharps will play San Antonio early to flip favorites, or bring it to a Pick, then let the public hammer the Spurs to move it the rest of the way. Then, when this sucker hits Spurs -1.5, we'll see some money coming back the other way. I'm going to go ahead and toss 1/4-unit on the Spurs right now at -1 (this is NOT part of my premium selections, this is for entertainment and middle practice only!), and then we'll take another look at this line late tomorrow. In terms of the actual game, I definitely prefer the Thunder. Oklahoma is coming off an easy winner over the Knicks, so they're rested and ready to roll. This being the final game of a homestand, too, I'd expect a top level effort from the Thunder before hitting the road. Another stat worth taking a peek at, the Spurs are a perfectly terrible 0-6 ATS on the back end of btb's, and every single one of those games has ended in the high 170's or low 180's. That just has to make you like the Thunder and the Under (Thunder down Under?). San Antonio is 1-7 ATS against the Northwest division, and they are 1-4 as a short road underdog; none of these trends look good for the Spurs. I realize that some, if not all of these trends are due to regress, but I think at least some of them are telling. The Spurs are an older-than-average team, which explains that low scores and poor performances on btb's, and I believe the road underdog record is also partially because of that same situation. The Spurs are a road dog when they're playing back-to-backs! One note, though: Oklahoma City beat San Antonio earlier this year, in Texas. If the Spurs weren't tired, I might think more of that revenge angle, but after shooting an incredible percentage from the field against the Lakers last night, I don't foresee that happening again.
Wolves @ Rockets - Houston by 10 with a total of 203.5. Well, this is just a monster spread, considering the Rockets played last night in Charlotte, and collapsed late! I am just flabbergasted. Basically, this is a 12-point spread when both teams are rested, but here, the Rockets, now opening a 3-game homestand, are expected to cover double digits? Hmm. This line reeks, especially with the way the Rockets crumbled late. That momentum (or lack thereof) should carry over, at least a little, into the first half of this game, and if indeed Houston is going to win by 10, they aren't going to do pull away early. Make no mistake, the Rockets are a VERY good team at home (11-4 SU and ATS), but the first half of this game is a potential letdown spot because of the first game home, and the second half is a fatigue spot. I just really don't like the Rockets in this game, and my lean is to the Wolves, even though Houston has actually gone 6-4 in the second game of btbs. The total of 203.5 is interesting. The Rockets have scored the ball pretty well on the second night of btbs, averaging Over 100 ppg. The Wolves have been allowing plenty of points lately (8 straight opponents have scored over 100), but the question is whether Minnesota can score themselves. I'm inclined to think this has a decent shot to go Over the total, since Houston generally struggles with opposing centers, and Minnesota has 2 of 'em.
Lakers @ Mavs - This line is OFF. No surprise there, since the Lakers are suddenly face-to-face with a rematch against Dallas, a team they absolutely clubbed in LA, without Kobe Bryant, without Pau Gasol, and with Artest still ailing. This is not a good spot for LA. If the Mavs weren't such clunkers at home, this would be a no-brainer, but the injury issues for LA make me think that the best way to solve this game is to just pass. The Mavs are coming off an 18-point home loss to the Jazz, so they're not going to be happy, and I'm just wondering where books decide to open this line. Everyone knows where the Lakers sit, and the questions surrounding this game are enormous. Will the Lakers try to slow the game down and go into the post as much as possible, running their offense through Andrew Bynum and Ron Artest, or will they try to get out and run? Will they be able to defend the Mavs? These questions are hugely important when trying to handicap the TEMPO of this game, which could range anywhere from painstakingly slow to breakneck. I have to think the Lakers, even if they want to push the pace, won't have enough energy to do so for an entire game, with this one coming on the back-to-back. I'm inclined to lean Under, though the Mavs are really going to want to make a statement, so my biggest concern is that they go soaring over 100 points like the Spurs. This one needs more thought - let's discuss how to approach this spot once the line comes out.
Magic @ Nuggets - This line is OFF. I simply could not be happier that the Magic dominated the Kings in the 4th quarter, because it sets up perfectly for this terrible spot tonight. Teams flying east into Denver and Utah, generally coming from Pacific Division teams, tend to arrive around 2am (or later), and have only about half a day to adjust to the altitude. Flying through time zones east on back-to-backs is tough enough, but trying to handle the home-monsters in Denver's altitude makes life even tougher. Let's face it, Denver wins at home; they're 16-3 there, and most of their ATS losses have come as huge favorites. This game, fortunately for us, should be a smaller spread. I have to think that Orlando would normally be similar in power ranking to Denver, and with the back-to-back adjustment, this line will probably open near 6. I like Denver quite a bit, though the real key is going to be to make sure the Magic don't get off to a fast start. These teams on btb's often trying to blast out of the gates, then sputter late, and a 2H play on Denver might be the best value on the card. But in terms of full games, I like the high-octane, suddenly-healthy Nuggets. The Magic have put together two big wins in a row, which gives us even a tiny bit more value on Denver, and I don't know if this situation could have set itself up much better. These teams played some low-scoring games last year, so I'd lean Under, especially with their recent play (3 straight Unders for both teams). I had a strong lean to the Under in Sacramento last night, but backed off, and that would have hit, as well, as the Magic have really been clamping down on defense. Let's see what line we're working with, but I like the square Nugs and the sharp Under.
Bucks @ Blazers - Portland by 5.5 with a total of 191.5. This side looks downright silly. Portland by only 5.5? Oddsmakers have to feel that Portland is in turmoil, and this game is the "sandwich" for them, falling between the Lakers and Cavs beforehand, and the Magic afterwards. Portland is in trouble. They beat the Lakers, but this team is just spiraling. Players and coaches are yelling at each other, Andre Miller would appear to be on his way out of town, and half the roster is still in street clothes. I fear all the injuries may finally be catching up with them. Portland has lost 3 of 4, and they're a very tough team to back. Still, the high-profile loss to the Cavs in the Sunday night televised game might give us a tiny bit more value with Portland. The public saw them get exposed repeatedly on defense, and that has been the key marker in Portland's skid. They've played to 4 straight Overs, never a good sign for a team that averages among the fewest possessions per game of any team in the NBA. Portland's opponents have shot over 50% in all 3 of their recent losses, also very scary. That being said, this might be a nice little confidence-builder of a game. The Bucks are an awful-shooting team, relying heavily on jump-shots, and consistently shooting in the high-30's and low-40's in FG%. I honestly can't explain how they only lost by 4 to the Suns shooting just 38.6%, but the Bucks managed it. That sort of percentage won't cut it against the Blazers. When Portland takes a lead, they generally don't relinquish it, and I see Portland getting up by 8-10 early, and just playing cat-and-mouse with the Bucks before covering by a bucket. I also think this game has a great shot to finally go Under. The Blazers don't want these high-scoring games, but they've been playing hot offensive teams, and the Bucks are the polar opposite of that.
Heat @ Warriors - This line is OFF. I know I'm supposed to know everything, but I'm not sure why -- Dwyane Wade sprained his wrist, but he's likely to play, so I guess the books are just playing it safe. I know the Heat are coming off a horrible situational spot in Utah where they got blown the "F" out of town, and now come right back to the west coast. So far on this 6-game road trip, the Heat got a win in Phoenix, but have dropped back to back games against the Clippers and Jazz, and I just wonder if the Heat are going to get things turned around. Obviously, fading a team off a 30-point loss is a hugely dangerous move, and backing the Warriors off a 3-point loss to the Cavs (a game that killed the public bettors) is also a little dangerous. These teams have not yet met this year, so the Heat will take some time to adjust to the Warriors odd style of play. Still, if we've learned anything this week, it's that a team coming off a 30-point loss is not going to be in good spirits, and their opponent is rarely going to be excited to face them. Detroit beat the Wizards last night as dogs. Atlanta beat the Celtics earlier this week as a dog. The list goes on and on. I lean to the Heat to play their butts off after getting embarrassed. I also wonder about the total. When Miami has played good offensive teams lately, they have really stepped up their defense, and I don't expect anything different here. I obviously don't know the number, but I lean to the Under based on situational value.
Trend Report - Wednesday
By Ed Meyer
Wizards at Hawks – The Hawks are 0-6 ATS (-9.8 ppg) since November 20, 1999 at home with at most one day of rest after a road win in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight. The Hawks are 0-6 ATS (-11.1 ppg) since December 12, 1995 at home with at most one day of rest off a win as a dog in which they trailed at the end of each of the first three quarters.
Clippers at Hornets – The Clippers are 0-9 ATS (-13.4 ppg) since February 09, 2009 as a dog after a game in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two. The Hornets are 11-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) since April 10, 2007 versus the Clippers.
Lakers at Mavericks – The Lakers are 10-0 ATS (13.1 ppg) since March 23, 2007 as a dog when playing the second of back-to-back road games. The Lakers are 7-0 ATS (8.7 ppg) since November 14, 1995 as a road dog after a double digit loss in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted. The Lakers are 6-0 ATS (11.7 ppg) since November 13, 2004 as a road dog with no rest after a game in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.
Celtics at Nets – The Nets are 0-9 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since February 25, 2005 at home after a double digit loss in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight.
Magic at Nuggets – The Magic are 12-0 ATS (7.4 ppg) since November 28, 2005 on the road after a game in which they allowed a shooting percentage at least 10 percentage points lower than their season-to-date average. The Nuggets are 8-0 ATS (5.3 ppg) since November 19, 2001 at home with at most one day of rest after a game in which they attempted at least 10 more three pointers than their season-to-date average.
Suns at Pacers – The Suns are 10-0 ATS (4.8 ppg) since March 28, 2005 as a favorite with at most one day of rest off a win of four points or fewer as a favorite in which they held a double digit lead. The Suns are 0-9 ATS (-14.9 ppg) since December 15, 2007 on the road after a win in which Steve Nash was the Suns' high scorer. The Pacers are 0-7 ATS (-14.1 ppg) since March 22, 2003 off a home win in which they trailed by double digits at the half.
Timberwolves at Rockets – The Rockets are 10-0 ATS (5.1 ppg) since January 29, 2008 as a favorite after a loss in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Rockets are 8-0-1 ATS (8.1 ppg) since February 05, 2007 versus the Timberwolves.
Knicks at Sixers – The Knicks are 8-0 ATS (7.1 ppg) since January 10, 2003 when playing the third game of a three-game road trip after losing the first two. The Knicks are 7-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) since February 25, 2003 after a road loss in which they shot at least twenty three-pointers and made less than a 25% of them. The Sixers are 0-6-1 ATS (-11.3 ppg) since February 02, 2005 at home after a game at home in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The 76ers are 6-0 ATS (8.9 ppg) since February 01, 2008 at home with at least one day of rest off a win as a favorite in which their leading scrorer for that game had fewer than 20 points.
Spurs at Thunder – The Spurs are 0-11 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since November 28, 2003 as a dog with at most one day of rest after a double digit win in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Spurs are 0-10 ATS (-10.7 ppg) since March 31, 2009 after losing the previous matchup in which Roger Mason took fewer than 10 shots. The Spurs are 0-8 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since December 01, 2005 after a win against the Lakers.
Bucks at Trailblazers – The Trailblazers are 0-10 ATS (-6.6 ppg) since January 02, 2002 as a home favorite after a double digit loss in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight. The League is 8-0-1 ATS (9.2 ppg) since November 25, 2004 with two or more days of rest after a double digit home loss in which they shot at least 50% from the field.
Heat at Warriors – The Heat are 7-0 ATS (6.6 ppg) since January 14, 2002 after a double digit road loss in which their DPA was at least plus 15 points. The Warriors are 7-0-1 ATS (6.4 ppg) since March 11, 2003 at home with at least one day of rest off a loss of four points or fewer as a dog in which they trailed by double digits.