Wednesday's Best NBA Bet
Washington Wizards at Milwaukee Bucks (-7, 185)
Enough is enough for the Washington Wizards.
The Wiz have won four straight games at home and bagged back-to-back victories in their last two outings, most recently knocking off the Utah Jazz, 108-101, as 4.5-point home underdogs.
But hanging over Washington’s head is that goose egg in the road wins column. The Wizards are 0-19 away from the Verizon Center with a 5-14 mark against the spread. They haven’t covered in their last four road games, but seemed determined to snap that skid Wednesday night.
"The most important thing is getting passed it and trying to get that zero to a one, getting better and better and improving," forward Andray Blatche told the Washington Post. "I don't know if we just don't believe in ourselves on the road and lose focus. I don't know if it's because we haven't won a game on the road and we use that as an excuse. I don't know what it is, but we have to figure out what it is and change that."
Washington averages 94.4 points per road game, compared to 99.4 at home, and allows opponents to score an average of 102.4 points against while in rival arenas – which is the same amount it gives up as in D.C.
"We've got to set goals and set goals to try to make the playoffs," newly-acquired forward Rashard Lewis told reporters. "We're four or five games out of it and we can set that goal to reach it. Anything can happen, but you've got to stay positive."
Wednesday’s game in Milwaukee may just be the right spot for the lukewarm Wizards. The Bucks are mired in a nasty skid, having lost three straight and eight of their last 10 contests.
Pick: Washington
Boston Celtics host Detroit Pistons
By: Barry Daniels
The Detroit Pistons will take a season-high three-game winning streak into Boston on Wednesday night to play a Celtics squad that has also captured its last three outings. Tip off from TD Garden is slated for 4:35 p.m. (PT).
The Pistons extended their streak Monday by dumping a slumping Dallas Mavericks’ team, 103-89. It was the third straight contest where the usually offensively challenged Pistons notched triple-digits. The combined 192 points skipped above the 188 ½-point closing total, allowing the ‘over’ to improve to 22-19 in Detroit’s first 41 outings.
Detroit also covered as 4 ½-point home favorites, which raised the club’s spread record to a nifty 23-18. However, playing on the road has been a different story, both against the spread and regarding the ‘total.’
Though John Kuester’s troops have seen the ‘over’ go 16-4 at home, they have seen the ‘under’ cash at a 15-6 pace on the road. They are also 4-17 SU and 11-10 ATS away from the Palace. The Pistons are getting outscored on the road by an average of 98-90.
Detroit is averaging 96 points per game – which ranks 24th – thanks largely to its 45.3 percent shooting from the field (21st). The Pistons are shooting 73 percent from the charity stripe (26th) and are next-to-last in rebounding by hauling down an average of 38.4 boards per game.
Rodney Stuckey led a balanced scoring attack against the Mavs with 20 points, while Tayshaun Prince added 19. First-round pick Greg Monroe added a career-high 16 points, nine rebounds and four steals.
Three-time all-star Richard Hamilton, rumored to be part of a 16-player trade that has been in the works for more than a week, never got off the bench. It was the fourth straight game that Hamilton has not played.
Starting center Ben Wallace also missed his third straight game with a sprained ankle. The Don Best Sports injury report lists Wallace as “questionable” for Wednesday’s contest.
The Celtics welcomed the return of Kevin Garnett on Monday, and the result was a 109-106 victory against the Orlando Magic as three-point home favorites. Though the win raised Boston’s home ledger to a sizzling 19-3 SU, the club is just 8-12-2 ATS despite outscoring the opposition by an average of eight points per game (101-93).
Garnett returned after missing nine games with an injured leg and came up with a steal in the final seconds to help the Celtics register the win and retain the best record in the Eastern Conference at 31-9. Garnett finished with 19 points and eight rebounds. The Celtics went 6-3 with him out of the lineup.
Ray Allen led the Celtics with 26 points, including 13 in the fourth quarter. Rajon Rondo chipped in with 10 points and 13 assists.
Doc Rivers has his squad allowing just 92.3 points per game, which is the league’s second-best mark. Though the Celtics are just 13th offensively with an average of 99.8 PPG, they rank first in field goal shooting (50.5 percent) and third from beyond the arc (38.9).
Boston and Detroit have split two meetings this season, with both games being played in the Motor City and both leaping ‘over’ the closing total. In fact, the ‘over’ has cashed in the last four series matchups.
The first meeting (Nov. 2) saw the Celtics spank the Pistons as six-point road favorites, 109-86. Detroit got revenge on Dec. 29 with a 104-92 victory as a 6 ½-point home underdog.
Rondo had 17 assists in the Boston victory, but missed the rematch with an injury.
Boston concludes its six-game homestand Friday by hosting the Utah Jazz. Detroit travels to New Jersey for a Friday matchup against the Nets.
Freefalling Mavericks meet Lakers
By: Michael Robinson
The freefalling Dallas Mavericks look to end a hideous six-game slide, both straight-up and against the spread, when they host the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday night.
Dallas (26-14 SU, 20-18-2 ATS) started out the year in fine fashion (24-5 SU) before being devastated by injuries. Power forward Dirk Nowitzki (knee) got hurt a couple of days after Christmas and missed nine games. Small forward Caron Butler (15 PPG) torn his ACL on New Year’s Day and is out for the season.
Nowitzki returned two games ago after watching the Mavericks go just 2-7 SU and ATS without him. They scored eight PPG less without their best player. The results haven’t been pretty since his return, losses and failures to ‘cover’ at Memphis (89-70) and Detroit (103-89).
Andrew BynumCoach Rick Carlisle hopes his team has hit bottom and there was a good sign Monday against Detroit with Nowitzki scoring 32 points. The NBA’s ninth-leading scorer (23.8 PPG) was very rusty against Memphis, scoring just seven points before being ejected in the third quarter.
Carlisle needs to get his rotations set again. Dallas used to have an explosive bench anchored by Shawn Marion and Jason Terry. However, Marion has been forced into the first five with Butler’s injury and Terry is starting since last game with DeShawn Stevenson struggling. That leaves very little scoring from the second unit.
Aggressive owner Mark Cuban has a decision to make as Dallas still looks for its first NBA title. If Cuban thinks his team can contend, he may be willing to absorb a long-term contract like Philadelphia’s Andre Iguodala or Charlotte’s Stephen Jackson. If not, Dallas can stand pat and try to squeeze out as many wins as possible.
The Lakers (31-12 SU, 19-23-1 ATS) have rebounded nicely from a three-game losing streak in late December, going 10-2 SU (5-6-1 ATS) in their last 12 games.
L.A.’s last game was Monday at home against Oklahoma City, a 101-94 win as 4 ½-pont favorites. It was a fortunate ‘cover’ as the Thunder failed to score in the final two minutes after trailing 98-94. The Lakers were 0-3 ATS in their previous three games.
The 195 combined points scored went ‘under’ the 202 ½-point total. The ‘under’ is 11-4 in the Lakers’ last 15 games, allowing just 92.7 PPG. That’s far below the season average of 96.1 PPG allowed.
The defensive emergence is attributable to an easier schedule overall, but also the return of center Andrew Bynum. Having the seven-foot Bynum in the lineup allows Pau Gasol to shift to power forward and Lamar Odom to his sixth-man role. The Lakers have one of the tallest frontcourts in the league with all three healthy.
Odom’s versatility also allows him to guard Nowitzki, who is too fast for Gasol on the perimeter. This is the first meeting between the teams this year, but Nowitzki averaged 26 PPG in the four games last year. The teams split 2-2 SU and ATS, with each winning and ‘covering’ once on the other’s home court.
The road team is 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings overall between the teams.
Dallas starting center Tyson Chandler missed the last two games (illness), but should play Wednesday. That’s important even with Brendan Haywood a good backup. Los Angeles reserve forward Matt Barnes is out (knee) for several more weeks, which does weaken its bench some.
ESPN will have the tip-off from American Airlines Center at 6 p.m. (PT).
NBA RoundUp for 1/19
by Dan Bebe
Philadelphia 76ers @ Orlando Magic (-10) with a total of 199
You could argue this is a revenge game for Orlando, but with half the team dealing with a nasty stomach virus, I'm not sure they even remember that home loss to the Sixers. Orlando comes home off a tough 5-game road trip where the red-hot Magic went just 2-3, culminating with a loss in Boston, and an ATS push. This game could potentially be a tough one, given the huge spread. Philadelphia continues to play games close, though their team defense has taken a step back the last week or so. The angles on this game balance out a little, but I'd weight the first-game-back angle a smidge heavier than the kinda-revenge. Slight lean to PHILLY and the OVER.
Phoenix Suns (-7) @ Cleveland Cavaliers with a total of 213.5
There will come a time when the Cavs lines are inflated far enough for us to play another one, but I simply can't get behind this NBDL team in their first home game off a grueling 5-game road trip through both altitude cities. The Cavs last relatively close game happened to come in Phoenix against these very Suns when they lost 108-100 as a 10.5-point underdog. But, let's be serious. The Suns should have opened as a 4.5-point road favorite based on those numbers. Have the Cavs really gotten 2.5-points worse in a little over a week? Probably not, so there's definitely "value" on that side. My issue is simply that Cleveland isn't hanging within 20 points of anyone these days, and I don't know if they're bettable. Electron-microscopic lean to CLEVELAND, slight lean to the OVER.
Utah Jazz (-6) @ New Jersey Nets with a total of 194
I realize the Nets have had something of a knack of hanging with better teams, covering some bigger spreads by a bucket or two, but this one is different. Utah is coming off an ugly loss in Washington, a game where the Jazz just simply didn't have energy, or if they had it, didn't show it. Utah has had a couple days to rest up, a couple days to practice, and let's not forget that prior to that disaster in D.C., the Jazz were one of the best road teams in the NBA. The Nets, meanwhile, are coming off a tough 4-game trip out West, and if any of you have taken the coast to coast flight the Nets most recently dealt with, you'll know there's a decent probability that Jersey doesn't put their best foot forward. I'd be surprised if the Nets were competent offensively beyond the usual suspects, and I lean to the JAZZ and UNDER.
Detroit Pistons @ Boston Celtics (-12.5) with a total of 192
I'd be all over Detroit if they hadn't smacked Boston upside the head the last time they met. Instead, with Boston in a little bit of a "letdown" game after taking some aggression out on the Magic, Detroit on a little 3-game win streak, and Boston will some small modicum of revenge on the brain, this one stinks of pass, at least on the side. I still don't really trust Detroit to score enough on the road, though both teams have been locking horns in higher-scoring games recently. I suppose, if I must...tiny leans to DETROIT and the OVER.
Washington Wizards @ Milwaukee Bucks (-6) with a total of 186
Will this be the game, at long last, that Washington finally breaks through on the road? The problem with the Wizards is that road lines are getting inflated for opponents that don't normally deserve it, and home lines are actually starting to get a little inflated for Washington, at least against the lower third of the League. Believe me, I'd love to be the guy that bets Washington the day they do finally win on the road, but I don't want to be the guy that bets them every game until that happens. So, by default, lean to BUCKS, and Milwaukee has a way of slowing games down to ugly speed, so small UNDER lean, too.
Memphis Grizzlies @ New Orleans Hornets (-4.5) with a total of 183
This game is a total wash, in my opinion. These teams split 4 games last year, each going 1-1 on the road. These teams have not met yet this season. Neither club is on a look-ahead, and neither club is in a letdown. Neither team is playing especially well or especially poorly over the last week, and neither is freakishly good or bad at home or road. Absolutely, positively, NO LEAN on the side, tiny UNDER lean on the total.
Toronto Raptors @ San Antonio Spurs (-12.5) with a total of 205
Somehow, Toronto continues to hang tough with most of their opponents. I'm not exactly sure how they're doing it, but Toronto has lost 4 games in a row, but covered 3 of them. That makes them very dangerous, especially in games where the Raps are catching over double digits. Of course, the Spurs are knee-deep in another 6-game win streak, with the last 2 wins each coming by double digits. To me, this game is pretty close to where it should be. The Spurs have the offensive and defensive firepower to break this thing open. Butterworth alert! Fact is, Toronto hasn't lost by more than a handful since a clunker in Boston 6 games back. Lean to TORONTO and the UNDER.
New York Knicks @ Houston Rockets (-2.5) with a total of 218
Houston is heating up again. They knocked off Atlanta on the road, then Milwaukee at home, and they're getting production from Jordan Hill that might be the biggest reason they can compete on a nightly basis. Certainly his defense is much-needed. The Knicks have lost 3 in a row, though you have to think they'll get it back in gear shortly. This line is giving the Rockets an awful lot of credit considering the Knicks have actually been a very solid 12-9 SU on the road. This line is also an exact duplicate of the number the Knicks were catching in Phoenix at the start of their last road trip, a game New York dominated from start to finish. I lean NEW YORK, though likely I'll pass, given the Knicks struggles of late, and I believe this one sneaks UNDER.
Los Angeles Lakers (-3) @ Dallas Mavericks with a total of 190
Make no mistake, this is a big game for both teams, and we're seeing a pretty motivated bunch of Lakers over the last couple weeks. Dallas has lost 6 games in a row for the first time since the year 2000, and it's perfectly evident that Dirk isn't quite healthy. Yes, he's playing, and that helps Dallas, but Tyson Chandler's flu, Caron's Butler's season-ending injury, and Dirk's banged-up knee have combined to take a devastating toll on the Mavs. I hate to say it, but while I'd love to go right back to fading the Lakers, I just can't advise it. I believed strongly that the Thunder would man up on Sunday, but I don't have that confidence in Dallas. And given that the Lakers beat the Thunder, my hopes for the Mavs aren't too high. Lean to LA and the UNDER.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Denver Nuggets (-3.5) with a total of 218
I'll admit, I'm not 100% sure how I feel about this one right off the bat. Denver continues to be incredibly impressive at home and fairly pedestrian on the road, and Carmelo Anthony could disappear at any moment, which makes them tough to back anywhere. The Thunder are very good off SU losses, and they suffered such in Los Angeles on Sunday, but at the same time, this could be a bit of a letdown spot, it's not an easy place to play, and Denver is on revenge from a pretty sound defeat at the hands of the Thunder back in December. I suppose when I talk it out like that, I like DENVER a little, and first team to 120 wins.
Portland Trailblazers (-2) @ Sacramento Kings with a total of 195.5
This looks like the fishiest line on the planet, but I'm actually trying to talk myself out of the public side, if you can believe that. Sacramento returns home off a difficult 6-game eastern road swing where the Kings went just 1-5 SU but a remarkable 5-1 ATS. It's not easy to "slip under" the spread in every game and still fail to come up with a win, but Sacramento found a way. Still, I can't help but think that the travel will finally catch up with the Kings, and even the not-so-great on the road Blazers will find a way to sneak past. Lean to PORTLAND and the UNDER.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Clippers (-6) with a total of 213
This darn line is already on the way up, and I'm not surprised given the fanfare the Clippers are getting for their short-term success. Don't get me wrong, I actually find the Clippers to be incredibly entertaining, and Blake Griffin is relentless in his efforts to rebound and score, but are the Clippers worthy of laying 6 to 7 points to other teams in the NBA yet? I'm thinking probably not quite yet. The Wolves are going to bring some scoring punch, and Kevin Love is one of about 3 or 4 guys in the entire NBA that can have some mild success boxing out Griffin. Of course, the other 4 Wolves on the court probably can't. This line is about where it should be, though the Clippers are playing with a new sense of purpose, and I think they make that one big bucket to win by 8. Very small lean to the BLAKESHOW/Clips and the OVER.
Indiana Pacers @ Golden State Warriors (-4.5) with a total of 213
This is another line that's probably about where it should be, but again, when push comes to shove, I'm trying to find a way to back the team that's hotter. This spread, unlike the Clippers game above, is coverable even in a close game, and that's a little comforting. Indiana has stopped playing much defense even though it was working nicely earlier this year, going instead to a small-ball lineup that can't compete with the bigger, stronger teams in the NBA. The Warriors aren't particularly large, but they can definitely out-run the Pacers, and at home, probably outgun them. The Warriors also realize they need to win these home games to get back into the West's mix, and the Pacers are vulnerable. Lean to the WARRIORS and the UNDER.
Tips and Trends
Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Hornets
GRIZZLIES: Memphis has ran hot and cold all season long, despite some of the best potential in the NBA. The Grizzlies are 19-22 SU and 24-16-1 ATS overall this year. Memphis is 7-15 SU and 13-9 ATS on the road this year. The Grizzlies are a solid 14-6 ATS as the listed underdog this season, including 5-1 ATS as a road underdog between 3.5 and 6 PTS. Forwards Rudy Gay and Zach Randolph each average more than 20 PPG for the Grizzlies this year. Randolph is averaging a double double this year, 20.1 PPG and 13.1 RPG. Gay is averaging 20.7 PPG and 6 RPG this season. PG Mike Conley is averaging 12.9 PPG and a team high 6.9 APG this season. The Grizzlies are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Memphis is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. The Grizzlies are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games against a team with a winning SU record. Memphis is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Wednesday games. The Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the Western Conference. Memphis is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
Grizzlies are 10-4 ATS last 14 road games.
Over is 11-1 last 12 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
Key Injuries - G Tony Allen (knee) is questionable.
Projected Score: 93
HORNETS: (-4.5, O/U 183) New Orleans is playing great basketball right now, as they've won 5 consecutive games SU. The Hornets are doing everything they can to keep PG Chris Paul with them. New Orleans is 26-16 SU and 23-18-1 ATS overall this season. If the playoffs started today, the Hornets would be the 6th seed in the Western Conference. The Hornets are 16-5 SU and 12-9 ATS at home this year. New Orleans is 10-12 ATS as the listed favorite this season. The Hornets are averaging just 94 PPG this year, the 5th fewest in the NBA. F David West is one of 5 players averaging double figures in PPG this year, as he's averaging a team high 19.1 PPG. Paul is averaging 16.2 PPG and a team high 9.6 APG this season. New Orleans has been amazing on defense this year, as they are allowing just 91.9 PPG, the fewest in the NBA. Only 8 opponents have scored more than 100 PTS in regulation against the Hornets this year. The Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. New Orleans is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win. The Hornets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. New Orleans is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games against a team with a road winning percentage less than .400%. The Hornets are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games against the Western Conference.
Hornets are 5-1 ATS last 6 games overall.
Under is 23-8 last 31 overall.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 98 (OVER-Total of the Day)
Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks
LAKERS: (-3, O/U 190.5) Los Angeles is coming off an impressive win over Oklahoma City. The Lakers have had a few high profile wins of late on Sundays, so they hope there is no hangover affect tonight. The NBA champions are 31-12 SU and 19-23-1 overall this season. Los Angeles is currently 5 games behind San Antonio for the best record in the Western Conference. The Lakers are 14-7 SU and 10-11 ATS in road games this season. Los Angeles is just 1-3 ATS as a road favorite of 3 PTS or fewr this year. The Lakers struggled with Dallas last year, splitting the season series at 2 games a piece. Los Angeles is averaging 103.4 PPG this year, 7th best in the NBA. G Kobe Bryant is averaging a team high 25.2 PPG this season. C Pau Gasol is averaging 18.5 PPG and a team high 10.7 RPG while shooting better than 50% from the field. The Lakers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Los Angeles is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Lakers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the Western Conference.
Lakers are 2-7 ATS last 9 games against a team with a winning SU record.
Under is 6-1 last 7 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Key Injuries - F Matt Barnes (knee) is out.
Projected Score: 95
MAVERICKS: F Dirk Nowitzki is back at the perfect time, as Dallas is meeting the defending world champions for the first time this year. The Mavericks have slumped of late, losing their past 6 games SU. Without Nowitzki in the lineup, Dallas has seemed out of sorts. The Mavericks are still 26-14 SU and 20-18-2 ATS overall this season. Dallas is currently the 5th seed in the Western Conference. The Mavericks are 14-8 SU and 8-12 ATS in home games this season. Dallas is 9-6 ATS as the listed underdog this year. Nowitzki is averaging a team high 23.8 PPG this year, the only Mavericks player averaging more than 16 PPG this year. C Tyson Chandler is averaging 9.1 PPG and 9.1 RPG this year for Dallas. The Mavericks are allowing just 94.5 PPG this year, 6th fewest in the NBA. The Mavericks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 Wednesday games. Dallas is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%. The Mavericks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. The Mavericks are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. Dallas is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Mavericks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.
Mavericks are 9-3 ATS last 12 games against the NBA Pacific.
Over is 5-0 last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Key Injuries - C Tyson Chandler (illness) is questionable.
Projected Score: 97 (SIDE of the Day)
Inside the Paint - Wednesday
By Chris David
The middle of January is usually the time when a lot of amateur sports bettors start to dip their toes into basketball since football only has three meaningful games left. Those gamblers starting this week probably received a quick wake-up call and learned that you better expect the unexpected and be prepared, especially this season. This year, the disparity between the contenders and pretenders is very telling, but surprises do happen very often.
It’s safe to say that the Eastern Conference has five teams penciled into the playoffs, while the Western Conference can lock up six as we approach the midseason point. What does it mean? You’re probably going to see a couple sub .500 clubs make the postseason and the first round should be full of sweeps, but the conference semifinals and finals will be must-see action.
Speaking of action, the favorites started the week with a 9-4 straight up record on Monday but they only managed to produce a 5-7-1 ledger against the spread, and we’re giving the Celtics a push (-3) for their three-point win (109-106) over Orlando. Last night, the underdogs posted a 2-0 record both SU and ATS, with Atlanta and Charlotte notching outright road wins over Miami and Chicago respectively.
Will the ‘dogs stay hot on Wednesday? There are plenty of opportunities out there with 13 games scheduled. Let’s take a closer look at some key notes.
Streaking in the Southwest
San Antonio (35-6 SU, 24-16 ATS) still owns the best record in the NBA and the club is near the top of the VI ATS Rankings as well. The Spurs continue to dominate opponents on both ends of the court, evidenced by their recent six-game winning streak (4-2 ATS). None of their opponents have put up more than 96 during this run, which has helped the ‘under’ go 6-0. San Antonio looks like it will improve on its home record (22-2 SU, 13-11 ATS) tonight against Toronto (13-28 SU, 19-20 ATS), but can the club cover the number. The Raptors have dropped four in a row but they’ve gone 3-1 ATS during this span. On the road, Toronto only has five wins but it owns a respectable 12-8 (60%) record against the number. The home team has won and covered the last four encounters in this non-conference series.
New Orleans (26-16 SU, 23-17 ATS) started the season with a blistering 11-1 record. Then reality set in for rookie head coach Monty Williams, as he watched his club go 7-13 over the next 20 games. Despite the rough stretch the Hornets have found their groove again, winning five in a row and eight of their last 10. Normally, one would assume that New Orleans was a bully during this span but road victories over the Celtics and Nuggets were impressive, plus a home win against Orlando said a lot too. Tonight, New Orleans is laying points (-4) to Memphis and the line looks fishy. During the last 10 games, the Hornets were favored four times and they went 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS, which included a non-covering win over Toronto (85-81) on Monday. Memphis (19-22 SU, 24-16 ATS) visits tonight and this is pretty good squad, especially on the road (13-9 ATS) too. The Grizzlies went 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS versus the Hornets last season and the setbacks were by seven (OT) and two points.
Home ‘Dogs
Dallas (26-14 SU, 20-18 ATS) finally got All-Star Dirk Nowitzki back in the lineup but that didn’t matter as the club lost two in a row with his duties. The Mavericks have lost a season-high six games and are 2-9 since Dirk went down with the knee injury. Tonight, the Mavs welcome the L.A. Lakers (31-12 SU, 19-23 ATS), who have won eight of their last 10. Phil Jackson’s team has gone 14-7 SU and 10-10 ATS on the road, but the team is just 1-4 ATS in the last five away from home. The home team won and covered all three regular season meetings last year, and the ‘under’ cashed in all three as well.
Cleveland (8-32 SU, 13-25 ATS) has dropped 13 straight and 23 of its last 24. On their recent five-game road trip, the club went 1-4 ATS, losing four games by double digits. The lone cover came against Phoenix (18-21 SU, 15-22 ATS), who happens to be tonight’s opponent. The Suns enter this game with a three-game winning streak both SU and ATS behind an offense that has put up 118, 115 and 129. It might look easy, but it’s hard to back a Phoenix club that is 7-12 SU and 8-10 ATS on the road. Then again, the Cleveland lineup looks like a D-League roster due to all of its injuries.
The only good thing (we guess) happening in New Jersey (10-31 SU, 19-21 ATS) lately is the trade rumors circling around Denver All-Star forward Carmelo Anthony, which is still up in the air. Currently, the Nets have dropped six in a row and 11 of 12. New Jersey has posted a 4-8 ATS ledger during this run. The Nets host Utah (27-14 SU, 20-21 ATS) tonight after finishing up a four-game West Coast trip on Monday. Jetlag could be a possibility here, plus the Jazz have been decent bets (12-7 SU, 10-9 ATS) on the road. Also, Utah has won and covered the last four head-to-head meetings against New Jersey, with every win coming by double digits.
Speaking of jetlag, Sacramento (9-30 SU, 15-24 ATS) returns home after a six-game road trip to the East Coast. The Kings went 1-5 SU, but they did manage to produce an eye opening 5-1 ATS mark. Except for a blowout loss at Boston (95-119), all of the other games were winnable including Monday’s loss at Atlanta (98-100). The ‘over’ went 4-2 and is 6-2 in the last eight for the Kings. Portland (22-20 SU, 21-19 ATS) will visit what was once called ARCO Arena tonight. The Trail Blazers have been playing solid basketball despite a ton of injuries, but the number is short (-2) for a reason. Portland has been suspect on the road (8-15 SU, 10-11 ATS), especially as a favorite (3-4 ATS) but it’s hard to ignore the fact that Nate McMillan’s team has won seven straight (5-2 ATS) against Sacramento.
Twenty Straight?
We’re halfway through the regular season and Washington (0-19 SU, 6-13 ATS) is still searching for its first victory on the road. Tonight, the Wizards are catching seven points at Milwaukee (14-24 SU, 16-21 ATS). While some bettors like to play the due factor, check out the Wiz’s road play. They’ve been outscored by an average of 15 PPG (109-94) outside of D.C. and they’re losing to mediocre competition too. The Bucks are 4-7 ATS as home favorites this season, but this game still looks like a pass here.
Totals to Watch
The Pistons and Celtics have watched their previous four meetings go ‘over’ the number. The total on these games usually hovered in the 186 to 188 range. Tonight, you have an open of 192½. Detroit has watched the ‘over’ go 3-1 in its last four, while Boston has seen the ‘over’ cash in four straight. Line has been nudged up for a reason, right?
As mentioned above, San Antonio is on a 6-0 ‘under’ run. And, Toronto is 4-0 to the ‘under’ in its last four. Despite those rolls, the total is listed at 204 for tonight. The Raptors have been held under 100 points in three straight games. And, if you follow this team you’ll know that the instant offense has been hurt drastically with point guard Leandro Barbosa (hamstring) hurting.
New York and Houston have a total of 219 listed and you know the pace is going to be there, since both teams average 83 attempts per game. Plus, both New York (24.7) and Houston (20.7) love to chuck it up from 3-point land. If the shots fall, the winner should easily get 120 on the board here.
Vegasinsider.com