Wednesday's Best NBA Bet
Memphis Grizzlies at New Jersey Nets (+3, 191)
The Grizzlies are getting close to becoming something rare for them – a playoff team.
Memphis – 6-4 SU and 6-4 ATS in its past 10 – is starting to play quality clubs close and beating the team’s it should beat too. Overall, Memphis is 20-8 ATS in its past 28 and a strong 12-5 ATS in its past 17 road games.
Swingman Rudy Gay is the team’s leader, including burying a buzzer-beating jumper in a 100-98 win over Toronto last week. But it’s been the inspired play of forward Zach Randolph that has the Grizzlies surging. Randolph hasn’t been afraid of doing the dirty work down low, logging a double-double in each of a franchise-record 11 straight games, including 17 points and 12 rebounds in the win over the Raptors.
What stands out, however, is that Randolph attempted most of his 24 field goals in the paint and had only one turnover.
The team also will benefit from a healthy Tony Allen. One of the best defensive stoppers in the league, Allen had cracked the starting lineup before being derailed by an injury. But his recent comeback means Sam Young can play fewer minutes and won’t be relied on as heavily to shut down opposing players.
"We're finishing like a playoff team," Memphis guard Mike Conley said. "We're making the right passes, making the right plays and getting the big stops when we need them."
Pick: Memphis
Bucks sliding as Hawks arrive for NBA duel
By: Joe Freda
The Atlanta Hawks have a 10-6 spread record in their last 16 games, with the ‘under’ going 9-7. Larry Drew’s squad flies north for Wednesday’s matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks, who have dropped two straight contests.
Atlanta began its present two-game road stretch with Saturday’s 103-87 win as a three-point dog against the Charlotte Bobcats. The Hawks hit 50.7 percent of their field buckets, including 9-of-19 from three-point land.
Hawks guard Joe Johnson notched team-highs of 32 points and five assists. The four-time All-Star connected on 12-of-18 from the field, while sinking 5-of-6 free throws.
Atlanta’s Mike Bibby finished with 14 points and a team-high eight boards. The veteran guard drained 3-of-5 from beyond the arc, while adding two of his squad’s seven steals.
The lopsided affair’s combined 190 points leaped above the ‘total’ of 186. Atlanta edged out the Bobcats in rebounds, 37-34, while being outscored in fast break points, 11-8.
The Hawks improved to 14-10 against the spread in their first 24 road games, with the ‘under’ dipping to 13-11. Bibby and Co. have put up 96.8 PPG in that span.
Milwaukee’s latest defeat came in Monday’s 92-83 setback as a seven-point road dog against the Chicago Bulls. The Bucks trailed by as many as 20 points, while holding Chicago to 39.5 percent field shooting.
Bucks guard Chris Douglas-Roberts logged a season-high 30 points, while adding three boards. The Detroit native hit 13-of-21 from field, playing a team-high 44 minutes.
Milwaukee’s Keyon Dooling notched 13 points and a team-high 10 assists, finishing with his second double-double in three games. The 30-year-old added three rebounds and one steal.
The battle’s combined 175 points ducked below the ‘total’ of 178, bringing the ‘under’ to 4-1 in the Bucks’ last five games. Both squads united to hit 30-of-36 from the foul line, while Milwaukee was outrebounded, 45-41.
Milwaukee is 7-10-2 ATS in its first 19 home dates, with the ‘under’ cashing at 13-6. Scott Skiles’ crew has allowed 90.9 PPG in that stretch.
Atlanta is 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings against the Bucks, with the ‘under’ also going 3-1.
The Hawks won a Dec. 27 trip to Milwaukee, 95-80, as two-point underdogs. Atlanta shot 50.7 percent from the field, while holding the Bucks to 37.3 percent.
Wednesday’s rematch is scheduled for 5 p.m. (PT).
Both squads have big scorers listed as “questionable” on the DonBest.com injury report. Atlanta’s Al Horford (16.2 PPG) has missed two straight games with an ankle sprain, while Milwaukee’s John Salmons (13.8 PPG) has been unavailable for four straight contests due to a hip injury.
Both teams will be off for one day, resuming action as part of Friday’s league slate. The Bucks will visit the Toronto Raptors, while the Hawks return home to face the New York Knicks.
NBA Betting Preview: Magic at Pacers
By: Brad Young
Two teams trying to get back on the winning track collide Wednesday night when Orlando (29-16 straight up, 20-24-1 against the spread) visits Indiana (16-25 SU, 19-20-2 ATS).
The Magic remain in the thick of things in the Southeast Division standings, just 2½ games behind Miami. The Pacers are in second place in the Central Division, but they trail Chicago by 13 games and would miss the playoffs if the season ended today.
Orlando had strung together three wins in a row SU and back-to-back victories ATS before Monday’s setback to Detroit as 12-point home ‘chalk,’ 103-96. The combined 199 points toppled the 190½-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ cash in consecutive contests.
The game was close throughout, but the Magic were unable to overcome a second-quarter effort that saw them outscored by nine points, 29-20. Orlando finished the matchup with advantages in rebounding (46-39) and assists (19-17), while shooting 45 percent (33-of-73) from the field and 26 percent (7-of-27) from behind the arc.
Center Dwight Howard provided 20 points and 16 rebounds in the setback, while power forward Ryan Anderson added 21 and five. Point guard Jameer Nelson had 14, while forward Brandon Bass accounted for 12 and eight.
Indiana enters this contest mired in a five-game SU losing skid after Sunday’s loss to Denver as a 10-point road underdog, 121-107. The combined 228 points soared past the 214-point closing total, enabling the ‘over’ to improve to 3-1 the previous four outings. The Pacers had covered back-to-back matchups before facing the Nuggets.
Indiana was on the short end of rebounding (44-42) and assists (28-25), while shooting 43 percent (37-of-87) from the field and 43 percent from 3-point land (9-of-21). It was the Pacers defense that let them down, allowing Denver to connect at a robust 51 percent (47-of-92) from the field and 55 percent (11-of-20) from behind the arc.
Power forward Tyler Hansbrough paced the offense with 27 points and 10 rebounds, while center Roy Hibbert added 12 and six. Small forward Mike Dunleavy had 10 and four assists in the setback, while A.J. Price had six and eight.
Orlando is 8-2 SU and 3-5-2 ATS the previous 10 meetings with Indiana, while the ‘under’ is 5-1 the past six matchups. The Magic won the lone encounter this season Nov. 20 as a five-point road favorite, 90-86. The combined 176 points never seriously threatened the 196 ½-point closing total. The ‘under’ is also 10-2 the last 12 meetings in Indiana.
Orlando forward Malik Allen is ‘out’ indefinitely due to an ankle injury. The Magic conclude a brief two-game road trip with Friday’s matchup at Chicago. Orlando is 5-2-1 ATS its last eight road games, while the ‘over’ has gone 6-2.
Indiana forward Danny Granger is ‘probable’ versus the Magic due to an ankle injury. The Pacers wrap up a quick two-game homestand with Friday’s contest against New Jersey. Indiana has seen the ‘under’ go 7-1 its past eight outings against Southeast Division opponents, and the ‘under’ is 27-12 its last 39 games overall.
This contest is scheduled to start at 4:05 p.m. PT from Indiana’s Conseco Fieldhouse.
Wednesday Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The 10-game card in the NBA on Wednesday involves several of the league's elite teams listed as road favorites. San Antonio wraps up a three-game road trip in Utah, while the Hornets start a three-game swing at Golden State. We'll start at Conseco Fieldhouse with the struggling Pacers trying to snap out of their losing ways against the Magic.
Magic at Pacers
Indiana looks to end a five-game cold streak when Orlando comes to town attempting to win its 30th game of the season. The Pacers went 0-4 SU and 2-2 ATS on their recent road trip, capped off by a 121-107 setback at Denver as 10-point underdogs. The Magic tries to bounce back from an ugly home loss to the Pistons as 12-point 'chalk,' ending an eight-game home winning streak.
Orlando started the season with plenty of problems cashing on the highway, going 3-11 ATS, including a non-cover in a 90-86 victory at Indiana on November 20 as five-point favorites. The Magic has improved since then by compiling a 5-2-1 ATS mark with the only losses coming at Oklahoma City and New Orleans. The teams that Orlando took care of are all in the class of Indiana by beating Minnesota, Cleveland, New Jersey, and Houston (the other win came against the Mavs without Dirk Nowitzki).
The Pacers have played just three home games in January with every contest coming against the league's elite (San Antonio, Dallas, and Chicago). Jim O'Brien's club covered in a close loss to the Spurs, while splitting games against the Mavs and Bulls. Indiana owns a 3-5 ATS mark as a home underdog, a poor record compared to the 7-4-1 ATS ledger when laying points at Conseco Fieldhouse. The Pacers are riding a seven-game 'under' streak at home since late December, while ranking as one of the league's best 'under' teams this season.
Thunder at Timberwolves
Minnesota's defense has been torched in each of the last four games by allowing an average of 119 ppg as the Wolves try to snap a four-game skid against Oklahoma City. The Thunder has been silenced recently with losses in three of the last four games, as OKC blew a 15-point lead in Monday's two-point defeat at New Orleans.
Even though the Thunder covered in the loss to the Hornets, Oklahoma City is 1-3 ATS since a four-game winning streak in mid-January. Scott Brooks' team has been extremely streaky in the totals department with four consecutive 'unders' after a 7-1 'over' run. Oklahoma City is 7-0 SU and 4-3 ATS the last seven meetings against Minnesota, including a pair of SU/ATS wins this season in two high-scoring affairs.
The Wolves rode a 7-1 ATS run as an underdog from December 15 through January 3, but Minnesota has cashed only two of its last eight games when getting points. In this stretch, the Wolves are 0-4 SU/ATS as home 'dogs with three losses coming by nine points or more. The defense has to tighten up as Minnesota has given up at least 100 points in seven of the last nine games, including as season-high 129 in Monday's four-point loss to Houston.
Spurs at Jazz
San Antonio doesn't go on its Rodeo road trip until February 1, but it's been a circus for the Jazz who return home after losing the first four games of its recent highway swing. Utah looks to end its struggles against a Spurs' team that owns the best record in the league at 38-7 after taking care of the Warriors on Monday night.
Following a hiccup at New Orleans in which the Spurs were held to a season-low 72 points, Gregg Popovich's team bounced back nicely with an 11-point victory at Oracle Arena over Golden State. San Antonio has won nine of 10, while the high-scoring effort against the Warriors snapped a nine-game 'under' streak for the Spurs. After losing four times to the Jazz last season, the Spurs have already beaten Utah once this season in Salt Lake City with a 94-82 triumph in mid-November.
The Jazz owns a dreadful 1-5 ATS ledger the last six games at Energy Solutions Arena with the lone cover coming against the horrible Cavaliers as 14 ½-point favorites. Utah is 7-4 SU this season on no rest following Monday's game at the Lakers, while going 'over' the total seven times in this situation. The Jazz has been one of the better 'over' teams recently with an 11-2 record since December 29, including a 4-1 'over' mark at home.
Hornets at Warriors
New Orleans is the hottest team in the league with nine consecutive wins as the Hornets head to the Bay Area to start a three-game road trip against the Warriors. David West's fade-away jumper in the final seconds lifted New Orleans past Oklahoma City on Monday night, but the Hornets failed to cover for the fourth straight time in the favorite role.
The Hornets will be laying points again on Wednesday as Monty Williams' squad has cashed seven straight times on the road since a New Year's Eve win at Boston. New Orleans' defense has been the story during this hot streak by limiting opponents to 89 points or less in seven of the nine victories. There is revenge on the minds of the Hornets after the Warriors rallied from a double-digit deficit in the final quarter to win in the Big Easy, 110-103 on January 5.
Stephen Curry is listed as questionable after suffering an ankle sprain in practice on Tuesday, as Golden State has hit the 'over' in seven straight games. To take that high-scoring streak further, the Warriors are 10-0 to the 'over' in the last 10 at Oracle Arena, while going 7-2 ATS the previous nine home contests. The only issue for the Warriors is folding against better competition in Oakland by putting together a 2-5 ATS mark as a home 'dog this season.
vegasinsider.com
NBA RoundUp for 1/26
by Dan Bebe
Orlando Magic (-5) @ Indiana Pacers with a total of 200.5
I feel pretty similarly in this game to how I felt about the Clippers/Mavs game yesterday. You have one team that's overrated (Clippers yesterday, Magic today), and one team that hasn't been playing well at all and isn't in a great situational spot (Mavs yesterday, Pacers today). And what happened? That's right, exactly what we expected, and the game landed right smack dab on the number, and as we also predicted, went over the total. Today, we have the Pacers coming home off a tiring 4-game western swing, losers of 5 straight, taking on the Magic, who themselves are off a loss to the Pistons, at home. Which angle is more significant? I suppose the Pacers' fatigue, maybe, but I'd rather have no part of it. Ubertiny lean to the MAGIC and the OVER.
Philadelphia 76ers (-3) @ Toronto Raptors with a total of 199
This line seems like a slight overadjustment, but maybe I'm out of sorts from travel. Is Philadelphia really 6 points better on a neutral court, and even moreso if we're working off the current line (it appears to be as high as 4.5 at some outs)? I would definitely consider a play on Philly if they were doing the hosting and laying a small-to-medium number, but laying points on the road means you've turned the corner as a team. The only reason I can see this line being as high as it is would be double revenge, but really, Philly strikes me as another of those teams that's more concerned about improving by the game than trying to exact revenge on some sort of evildoers. Bottom line - Philadelphia is the better team, but they're not quite road favorite material in my book. I lean to TORONTO in their 2nd game back home off a long roadie, and I like the OVER.
Memphis Grizzlies (-3) @ New Jersey Nets with a total of 191
Memphis, on the other hand, is a team that has done enough to earn some small road favorite lines, though I happen to believe this one is pretty close to where it should be. Jersey is playing better back in their own building, winning 3 of 4 games on the current stand, and the only loss was by a single point to the Dallas Mavericks. The Grizzlies are no slouches, winners of 3 straight, but they're still not, in my estimation, truly battle-tested away from home. They barely beat Toronto on Monday, and another slip in focus like that will land Memphis on the losing end of a very winnable game. I like the Grizzlies - I believe they are a team that is very close to being relevant (significant improvement from Mike Conley or O.J. Mayo might get them there), but right now, I'm still not quite a believer. Lean to JERSEY and the UNDER.
Denver Nuggets (-2.5) @ Detroit Pistons with a total of 204.5
The Pistons keep surprising people, but let's not forget, it was Dan Bebe that said they might be the biggest surprise of the season in the Season Preview podcast. Just sayin'. I know, a long way to go, and they blew for the first 2 months, but quietly the Pistons have won 5 of 7, and are actually 12-9 in their home building. Of course, we got burned fading the Nuggets last night, and I'm not sure I want to get nailed again. Fool me once, so on and so forth. Still, the Pistons beat Orlando on the road, they beat the Suns in a defensive battle (yeah, what?), they beat Dallas, and nearly took down the Celtics in Boston. Ever since Rip Hamilton got the semi-boot, Detroit is playing with fire, and some of the young guys are showing up. I don't particularly like taking the team with the big talent disadvantage only getting 2.5 points, but with apologies to the Nuggets (who will probably go out and make me look stupid for a second straight day), I lean to DETROIT and the OVER. Temper these leans though, as Detroit is playing this one between games in Orlando and Miami, so the potential for a sandwich is in full effect.
Atlanta Hawks (-2) @ Milwaukee Bucks with a total of 180.5
Atlanta Hawks lines are all over the place, and I suppose the credit should go to Al Horford. Big Al missed a few games, the Hawks got slammed by the Hornets, then showed up as 3-point underdogs in Charlotte, and wiped the floor with the Bobcats. Now they're back to being road favorites against the offensively challenged Bucks in a series where the road team has won every game this year. We can, for all intents and purposes, wipe the slate clean on this showdown. The Bucks got their playoff revenge in the first meeting, the Hawks got home revenge from that first loss, and now they meet again, with Milwaukee grasping for points, and Atlanta trying to stay focused long enough to get home court in any playoff round. This line is probably pretty accurate, since the first two games haven't been close, and that makes me think I'll take a jetlag PASS on the side, and look at the UNDER on the total.
Oklahoma City Thunder (-5.5) @ Minnesota Timberwolves with a total of 220.5
That total high enough? Geez! This game is a complete wasteland of angles. Aside from the obvious, which is that Minnesota is on something like sextuple-revenge, or more, there's just not much to go on. The Thunder are coming off a SU loss, so that would be a small reason to consider backing them, but they're also not playing that superbly overall. On top of that, the Thunder are on a run of 4 straight "unders" while the Wolves are in a 3-game "over" romp. Everything about this game screams PASS, so we'll do that on two straight sides, and I believe Durant name-recognition and crazy high-scoring Wolves games have inflated the total just a hair - I lean UNDER.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Houston Rockets with a total of N/A
I thought about starting this short paragraph by saying that I might consider the Over no matter the line, but then I rethought that remark. Still, you get the point. The Clippers have some of the worst road defense in the League, and right now, Houston has completely abandoned defense in favor of just firing up as many shots as humanly possible. It's the mark of a team that knows it's going to be out-sized almost every night, and such is the case for the Rockets. Chuck Hayes, god bless his soul, is not a full-size center (though I did add him in a fantasy league and have enjoyed his well-rounded work so far). So, the Clippers, a team that certainly doesn't lack athleticism and features the highest first-quarter scoring offense in the NBA, gets to go head-to-head with a team that doesn't feel like playing on half the court. Eric Gordon being out does concern me on the side, so I don't really know where this line is going to open, but I believe Houston wins by a narrow margin in a high-scoring game. Make of that what you will when the line comes out.
Charlotte Bobcats @ Phoenix Suns (-5.5) with a total of 201
This line is all kinds of crazy-low, considering Charlotte is just now finishing up a game in Sacramento. This is a very tough fatigue spot for the Bobcats, but then, Phoenix isn't in the best of spots, either. The Suns are set to play their first home game off a 5-game road trip, and one that concluded with 2 straight losses to Detroit and Philadelphia. Phoenix looked tired, and as you all know, I love to play on streaks in the NBA, especially for a hot-and-cold team like the Suns. And, maybe most importantly, the Bobcats are actually excellent against the Suns. They match up supremely well with Phoenix for some reason (believe me, I've tried to figure out exactly why, and I'm still not sure), and Charlotte has won the last 3 meetings, including last year's game in Phoenix. All 3 of those games went Over the total, too. Why fight it? Leans to CHARLOTTE and the OVER.
San Antonio Spurs (-2.5) @ Utah Jazz with a total of 198.5
This is a tough, tough way for the Jazz to come home off a road trip - a back-to-back, in altitude, off a game with the Lakers? Yes, the Jazz lose an hour to time zones, they're going to be sucking wind, and taking on the team with the best record in the NBA, and a team that has already beat them once in Utah this year. Be warned, people. If you like the Spurs, bet them immediately, because this line is only going up, courtesy of the Jazz getting absolutely murdered by the Lakers. Do I like laying chalk on a team in Salt Lake City? No way, but I sure as heck can't play the Jazz right now. They're a total mess. At this current number, lean to SPURS and the UNDER.
New Orleans Hornets @ Golden State Warriors with a total of N/A
Steph Curry's potential injury is keeping this number off the board, but I actually don't think Curry is going to be a big difference-maker in this game whether he plays or not. Chris Paul can put the clamps on the young guard. The Warriors need another monster game from Monta Ellis if they're going to pull off another upset over New Orleans like they did a couple weeks back. That, of course, puts the Hornets on revenge, and considering New Orleans has won 9 games in a row, getting that little something extra is probably not an enviable spot to be, if you're a Warriors fan. The Hornets are playing some of the best defense that I've seen from any team at any point this year, and I expect Emeka Okafor to continue his dominance of the paint against the small, quick style of play we have come to expect from Golden State. If I'm betting Hornets, I'd prefer not to have to cover a number bigger than 2-3, but let's see what we've got. In my mind, I lean to the HORNETS and the UNDER.
Tips and Trends
San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz
SPURS: (-2.5, O/U 198.5) San Antonio has the best record in the NBA at 38-7 SU, 5 more wins than any other team in the league. The Spurs currently have a 6 game lead over the Lakers in the race for the best record in the Western Conference. The Spurs have been so impressive this year, they are 26-17-2 ATS as well. Typically the best teams in the league have a losing record from an ATS standpoint. The Spurs are 14-5 SU on the road this season. San Antonio continues to show their offensive prowess this season, as they are averaging 104.1 PPG. 9 different Spurs average at least 7 PPG this year, proving just how much depth this veteran team has. G Manu Ginobli leads San Antonio in scoring, averaging 18.6 PPG this year. F Tim Duncan is averaging 13.6 PPG and a team high 9.5 RPG this year. The Spurs are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. San Antonio is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games against the NBA Northwest. The Spurs are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Spurs are 5-0 ATS last 5 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%.
Under is 9-1 last 10 games overall.
Key Injuries - F Matt Bonner (knee) is questionable.
Projected Score: 97 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
JAZZ: Utah has really been struggling of late, something you don't see for an extended period of time with Jerry Sloan as coach. PG Deron Williams has stated that the Jazz have likely hit rock bottom right now. The Jazz are simply too talented to stay down for long, and tonight offers them an opportunity to beat the best team in the NBA this season. Utah is 27-17 SU and 20-23-1 ATS overall this season. The Jazz currently hold the 6th seed in the Western Conference looking ahead to the playoffs. The Jazz are 15-7 SU at home this year, a record they will try to improve now that they are finally back home after an extended road trip. Utah has revenge on their minds, as they lost by 12 PTS to the Spurs earlier this season. Williams is the leader of an offense that is averaging 100.1 PPG this season. Williams is averaging team highs of 21.7 PPG and 9.5 APG this year. F Al Jefferson has been a welcome addition to Utah, as he's averaging 16.7 PPG and 8.8 RPG this year. The Jazz are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games against a team with a winning road record. Utah is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%. The Jazz are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against the Western Conference. Utah is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Wednesday games overall. The Jazz are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Jazz are 5-2 ATS last 7 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
Over is 7-3 last 10 games playing on zero days rest.
Key Injuries - C Francisco Elson (quad) is questionable.
Projected Score: 94