Wednesday's Best NBA Bets
Dallas Mavericks at New Orleans Hornets (-4.5, 192.5)
Every good thing must come to an end. The Hornets had their undefeated streaked snapped by the Dallas Mavericks Monday night, but won’t have to wait long to avenge that 98-95 defeat.
Dallas is in New Orleans Wednesday in the second half of this home-and-home series. The Hornets have lost 14 of their last 15 road games to the Mavericks but have been better in the Big Easy, taking the last five home contests versus Dallas while going 4-1 against the spread.
A big problem Monday was the disappearance of star point guard Chris Paul. He scored 22 points in the game but failed to find the basket in crunch time, going scoreless in the final 20 minutes of the second half. Paul was also limited after picking up four personal fouls.
"You can't do nothing on the bench," Paul told the media. "That's my fault. I felt like the fouls were here or there, that's my fault. I can't expect the ref not to call it."
Bettors can expect a smarter effort from New Orleans Wednesday. The Hornets are still a perfect 5-0 ATS at home and have a 6-3-1 ATS mark in their last 10 head-to-head meetings with Dallas. On top of those promising numbers, the home team is 5-1-2 ATS in the last eight games between these Western rivals.
Pick: New Orleans
Phoenix Suns at Miami Heat (-8.5, 208)
Phoenix has relied on its outside play to top opponents this season but, with the Miami Heat up next, the Suns will be without their biggest edge for Wednesday’s battle in South Beach.
Phoenix lost starting center Robin Lopez for the next few weeks after the Stanford product sprained two ligaments in his left knee against the Los Angeles Lakers Sunday night. Lopez, who was scoring over five points and grabbing four rebounds per game, would have been key against a weak Miami interior that has struggled against opposing centers.
"We could play small, but the wiser course would be to try to reinforce what we can do with the (big men) and get another player in here who can help us," Suns President of Basketball Operations Lon Babby told the Arizona Republic. "We were considering doing this anyway."
Channing Frye started in place of Lopez against the Denver Nuggets Monday night. While Frye is a great perimeter threat that can stretch the defense, he’s not the physical presence in the paint Phoenix needs to exploit the Heat’s frontcourt.
The Suns were out-rebounded 52-43 and gave up 56 points in the paint to Denver, but managed to hang on for a 100-94 win as 2-point home favorites.
Pick: Miami
NBA betting rematch for Hornets, Mavericks
By: Adam Markowitz
Coming into play on Monday night, the New Orleans Hornets were the only team in the NBA that didn't have a loss to their credit. That was all stopped at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, where the Dallas Mavericks knocked them off, 98-95.
Now, these same two teams head down to the Bayou on Wednesday where they will meet for the second time in just three days.
Dallas can move into a tie for first place in the Southwest Division if they can sweep this mini two-game series. Their stars came to shine on Monday for certain, as Jason Terry, Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Kidd were all phenomenal.
Nowitzki led the way with 25 points and 10 boards, while Kidd stuffed the stat sheet as usual, scoring 16 points, bringing in eight boards and dishing out six assists. Terry came off the bench with a flurry and scored a game-high 26.
Just like the Hornets, these Mavericks play fantastic defense. They are holding teams to just 42.2 percent shooting from the field, the best in the league. The efficiency has kept up on the other side of the court as well, where Dallas is shooting 48.6 percent, ranking No. 3 in the NBA coming into play on Tuesday night.
Caron Butler, the team's third leading scorer at 14.7 PPG, is suffering from back spasms that have caused him to miss three straight games. He is questionable for Wednesday's encounter.
This will be a chance for New Orleans to redeem itself after the shoddy outing against the Mavs on Monday. The offense shot just 44.2 percent from the field. Chris Paul did pour in 22 points and dish out nine assists, but aside from that the rest of the team was kept relatively quiet. Peja Stojakovic was the second leading scorer on the day and was the top man off the bench with 17 points.
The encouraging thing that the Hornets can look at this year is the fact that they are playing tremendous defense. The team ranks No. 2 in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage (30.8%), No. 3 in field goal percentage against (43.0%), and No. 2 in scoring average (90.7 PPG).
The little things are happening as well. Emeka Okafor is leading the squad with 21 blocks on the year, erasing the majority of the team's 45 swats on the campaign. There have been 74 steals as well, creating a slew of fast break opportunities and easy buckets the other direction. There are also only two players on the team, Okafor and rarely used Didier Ilunga-Mbenga that have more turnovers than assists.
Though the Hornets might not be undefeated anymore, they are still undefeated from an NBA bettors perspective. New Orleans is 8-0-1 ATS this year and is 10-0-1 ATS in its last 11 dating back to last season.
More good news for New Orleans: The home team in this series is 5-1-2 ATS and 8-0 in the last eight meetings. The Hornets are also 6-1-2 ATS in the last nine dating back to January 2009.
Dallas was favored by three points at home on Monday, and we expect to see a similar number hit the board in favor of the Hornets on the NBA odds on Wednesday.
Wednesday NBA Tips
By Kevin Rogers
Ten games are in the Wednesday night spotlight on the NBA card, highlighted by four key contests. The Spurs look to stay on fire against the Bulls, while the Hornets try to bounce back after their first loss as they finish a home-and-home set with the Mavericks. We'll start in South Florida with Miami and Phoenix each looking for their seventh win of the season.
Suns at Heat
It may be surprising to see Phoenix start the season at 6-4 in the post-Amare Stoudemire era, but many people thought that Miami own a better record than 6-4 through the first 10 games. The "Three Kings" have seen their ups and downs as LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh are trying to find consistency as the Heat continues a six-game homestand.
The Heat knocked off the Raptors in the Bosh reunion last Saturday, 109-100 to snap a two-game skid. However, Miami has failed to cover each of its last five games, all as a favorite of at least six points. Following four consecutive 'unders' to start the season, the Heat has drilled the 'over' in six straight contests, while topping the 100-point mark in six of the past seven games.
The Suns pulled off a nice sweep of the Lakers and Nuggets over a two-day stretch, as Phoenix has won five of its last six. Alvin Gentry's team has been tested plenty through the first 10 games by already facing the Lakers twice, Spurs, Hawks, Jazz, Blazers, and Nuggets (4-3). With several inflated totals due to Phoenix's perception of being an up-and-down team, the Suns have cashed the 'under' in three of the previous four games, all with a total of 215 or higher.
Lakers at Pistons
Los Angeles continues a three-game swing through the Midwest as the Lakers battle the Pistons at the Palace of Auburn Hills. Detroit returns home following a 2-2 SU road trip on the West Coast, but the Pistons managed to cover three games, including Monday's massive comeback in a 101-97 defeat at Golden State as seven-point 'dogs.
The Lakers will be on the second of a back-to-back after Tuesday's game at Milwaukee. The reigning champs have played just one game with no rest this season, a 112-100 victory at Sacramento as five-point 'chalk.' Los Angeles is 7-3 to the 'over,' while scoring at least 100 points nine times. The Lakers have not been a great team to back recently, covering just once in the last five games.
The Pistons have surprisingly been one of the top ATS teams in the league by covering eight of 11 games. One of the three losses came at Chicago when Detroit owned a 19-point halftime lead, but ultimately lost by 10, failing to cover as nine-point 'dogs. Detroit's two wins at home have come against Charlotte and Golden State, while the two defeats have been to Oklahoma City and Boston. The Lakers swept the season series from the Pistons last season, including a 93-81 win at the Palace as 7 ½-point favorites.
Mavericks at Hornets
New Orleans' run at a perfect season ended abruptly on Monday night as the Hornets blew a late lead in a 98-95 loss at Dallas. The Hornets are still rolling at 8-1, but now they have to play the second end of a back-to-back against a Mavs' team that owns a 7-2 mark.
Monty Williams' club is 8-0-1 ATS after picking up a 'push' in Monday's loss. Following a 6-1 'under' run to start the season, the Hornets have hit the 'over' in back-to-back games. Despite the defeat at Dallas, the Hornets still have not allowed over 100 points in a game this season. New Orleans has compiled a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS ledger at home, including wins over Miami, Denver, and Portland.
The Mavericks have quietly started with wins in seven of their first nine, including a flawless 3-0 SU/ATS road record. Even though the only true road test came in a one-point win at Denver, Dallas' 3-0 ATS mark on the highway is a far cry from a 1-3-2 ATS record at American Airlines Center. The Mavs do like playing low-scoring games, as Rick Carlisle's team is 6-2 to the 'under' the last eight contests. The home squad has owned this series by winning each of the last eight matchups.
Bulls at Spurs
Chicago two-steps from Houston to San Antonio for a nationally televised game against the Spurs. The Bulls aren't used to life on the road as Chicago has played only three games on the highway after Tuesday's contest at Houston. The Spurs, meanwhile, are tied with the Hornets for the best record in the Western Conference at 8-1.
San Antonio's offense has been one of the most dynamic in the league by averaging 108 ppg. The Spurs lit up the Thunder at the Ford Center on Sunday with a 117-104 win as 2 ½-point 'dogs. The keys were a 7-7 night from downtown for Matt Bonner and 34 made free throws. What made things even more impressive for the veteran Spurs was the ability to score at least 116 points for the second straight night after a 116-93 victory over the Sixers on Saturday.
The Bulls continue to play without Carlos Boozer, who is out until December with a broken hand. Chicago has stepped up its defense after allowing 120 points to New York and 110 to Boston by giving up no more than 96 points in three straight home wins. Each of the last four meetings between the Bulls and Spurs in San Antonio have finished 'under' the total, including Chicago's 98-93 upset last season as 8 ½-point 'dogs.
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NBA RoundUp for 11/17
by Dan Bebe
Phoenix Suns @ Miami Heat (-9) with a total of 208
If we've learned anything from watching the Heat, it's that they have two weaknesses - opposition with "power" bodies, and opposition with tremendous point guards. Of course, a team like Utah, that has both Deron Williams and Paul Millsap, we shouldn't have been that surprised that Utah played a strong second half. Outside of Utah, Rajon Rondo has been a problem-causer (twice), and Chris Paul (once). What does Phoenix have? Basically just a point guard and a bunch of pieces that look a whole heck of a lot better because of said point guard. Steve Nash should be able to get his teammates open, and Phoenix has actually been playing with some nice fire the last few games. They beat the Lakers with a superior shooting exhibition, and then beat the Nuggets with some actual defense (or at least some effort). This is going to be a heck of a test, but considering the Heat rely on team defense, and no one can guard the opposing PG, lean to PHOENIX and the UNDER.
Toronto Raptors @ Philadelphia 76ers (-4.5) with a total of 206.5
Two teams that played last night, so the results will certainly spill over into our handicapping of this one. Philly plays in Cleveland to end a 5-game road trip, and one that featured quite a few days off, so they haven't been home in ages. Toronto played in Washington last night, so both teams are traveling here, and neither is particularly deep. Last year, Philly was decent on back-to-back spots, and the outside shooting Raptors weren't, so much, but without Chris Bosh, Toronto is a team that needs to rely on getting better shots, and teamwork, and I also feel like Toronto is in the "something to prove" mindset, at least here in the early going. There's no question Philadelphia out-classes Toronto in pure talent, but Philadelphia is fairly mistake-prone, and aren't in a particularly good situational/scheduling spot. Lean to TORONTO and the OVER.
Washington Wizards @ Boston Celtics with a total of N/A
This line is going to be hefty, if indeed John Wall has to miss more than one game. The Wizards are playing a back-to-back, Boston is well-rested, and Washington's current injury situation is only going to drive even more money to the Boston side. So, what does that mean? You guessed it, potential value on Washington. No one is going to want to touch a Washington team without John Wall, and even though a rested Celtics team can certainly dish out a beating, we've seen Boston slack off at home more often than on the road. And, on top of that, Boston is playing its first home game off a 4-game road trip, and one that saw them win in Oklahoma City, Miami, and Memphis, and only drop a game in Dallas (and a close one, at that). This is a bit of a letdown game, even for the Celtics, and having 3 days to come home and try to keep their focus at top level might actually work against them. It'll be a tough game to bet, but the value is with the visitor -- lean to WASHINGTON and to the OVER.
Los Angeles Lakers (-7.5) @ Detroit Pistons with a total of 205
This is an awfully high total for a Pistons game, or at least that's the first thing that jumps out at me. They've had 2 totals over 200 so far this year, both against the Warriors, and both games have gone Under the mark. But those totals were high because of the Warriors. This one feels different. The Lakers are actually (or were, probably still are, we can check) the highest scoring team in the NBA, but I feel like it's actually still surprising oddsmakers and bettors. The Lakers are 7-3 O/U this year, only failing to break 100 in a truly ugly game with the Wolves. The Pistons are a team that slows things down, but with the Lakers on back-to-back, I imagine their defense will be lacking just a tad. I could see this one sneaking up to around 100 apiece, so a few shots should decide it. As far as the side goes, I know it looks awfully high, and truth be told, it is high, but with Detroit coming home off a long west-coast road trip, I can't get behind them, here, even with some line value. Slight lean to LAKERS, and OVER.
Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Hornets with a total of N/A
Obviously, the hope with the first meeting between these two teams was that whichever team won the game would also cover, so we could just bet the other side and feel good about ourselves, but sometimes the world doesn't help out. Dallas beat New Orleans, dealing the Hornets their first loss, but failed to cover. This leads to some slightly weirder angles. For instance, does the first loss lead to a letdown for New Orleans? Does Chris Paul stay out of foul trouble in this one and lead the Hornets to a win? Does the revenge factor play a huge role, or a small one? All things worth considering. Maybe the simple answer is still the best, though. Dallas doesn't cover at home (they didn't), and they do on the road (maybe they will?). Let's wait and see about this line, but if revenge history is any indication, the line should swing a solid 7-8 points from where we saw that Dallas line open. Will this be another close game? I have to think so. The Hornets aren't going to want to lose, but Dallas is a strong road team. We might very well see a Hornets win and a Dallas cover. Should be a good one. Lean to MAVERICKS and the UNDER.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Minnesota Timberwolves (-3.5) with a total of 208.5
The Wolves are playing better, and the Clippers are a disaster, but simply put, I'm not ready to back the Wolves as a favorite yet. Sure, they might be the better team here, so the line of 3.5 isn't necessarily crazy, but we've seen the Wolves commit 27 turnovers in a game already this year, so it's not like they're a reliable bet. They also host the Lakers again in their very next game, and we know how Kurt Rambis is going to want to make sure his guys are ready for that one. Of course, the flip side is that Minnesota likely sees this game as a rare "truly" winnable game, and the Clippers are even worse now than they were to start the year. This is just one of those games that would be best left unplayed, and unwatched. NO LEAN on the side, and tiny lean to UNDER.
Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder with a total of N/A
This game sort of strikes me as a possible "sandwich" game for the Thunder, and if they weren't seemingly bent on trying to improve every game, I might be inclined to suggest a fade. The Thunder are coming off an emotional road win over the Jazz in their last game, and their next contest is on the road in Beantown, a revenge game against the vaunted Celtics. There's a definite possibility for a letdown in this game in between, especially with Houston playing as poorly as they have to start the year, and even moreso with the Rockets having played last night, at home, against the Bulls. Still, the Rockets don't strike me as a team that wants to get blown out. They've lost a few games so far, that's true, but only once did they lose by double digits, and that was to the Nuggets, an up-and-down opponent where it seemed like everything just sort of lined up. Outside of that, Houston has lost to the Lakers by 2, the Warriors by 4, the Hornets by 8, the Wizards by 7 (this was a bad one), and the Spurs by 3 in bonus basketball. If they can continue to keep games close, and the Thunder continue to play less-than-stellar defense, why not this one? Lean to the ROCKETS and the OVER.
New Jersey Nets @ Utah Jazz with a total of N/A
We have to ask ourselves a few questions before jumping into this one. First, are the Nets as good as they've looked in their last 3 games? They beat the Cavs, lost to the Magic on a last-second shot, and beat the Clippers to start this road trip. I do think Jersey is improving, and Avery Johnson is a solid coach, but they're overperforming right now, and that means we can either hope it continues and ride the wave, or fade it as soon as they're showing signs of slowing. Utah, meanwhile, had a road trip to remember, but came home and got beat in a classic letdown game by a Thunder team on revenge. Are they in bounceback mode? Possibly, but this line is going to be quite beefy, and we've seen how Utah can lose focus for half a ballgame. This is another game I'm strongly leaning towards a pass and never looking back, for the reasons above, but as I've been doing, we'll have one game per blog where it's gun to my head time...lean to JERSEY and the UNDER, as I feel like Utah can't possibly be involved in a much higher scoring game than the one with the Thunder. I guess we'll see.
Chicago Bulls @ San Antonio Spurs (-7) with a total of 207
I'm sensing a pattern, one that seems to want the Spurs to start the season with a good record. See, to the untrained eye, San Antonio is playing tremendous basketball...and I'll give them credit, they're outperforming my early-season expectations. However, upon closer inspection, this is San Antonio's 6th home game, and they've hosted teams playing a back-to-back in 4 of those 6. Now, I'm not saying that the Spurs wouldn't have beat those teams, but most of the time, it's a b2b as part of a division road trip. So, they're catching teams, for the most part, off difficult games with teams like Dallas, Memphis, and so on. Well, here we are again. Chicago, off a game in Houston last night, heads into whatever they call the Alamo Center now for another cherry-picking chance for the Spurs. Something tells me this is too many points, though. The Spurs have been playing some truly high scoring games, but Chicago is going to want to try to dig in, and the return to health of Tim Duncan (off a battle with the stomach flu) should actually slow the game down just a tad. On the flip side, Chicago on b2b could mean less defense, and the Spurs are shooting the lights out at home. If you're concerned about the side, the total might lend an opportunity, too. Slight lean to CHICAGO, and slight lean to the OVER, though let's see how the action comes in.
New York Knicks @ Sacramento Kings (-3.5) with a total of 208
Both of these teams are finding it's tough to win games if you don't play any defense, and it's really an "I told you so" moment for all of us that expected very little from each club. This line, though, really spits on the Knicks. The Knicks come to town off a game in Denver yesterday, so that partially explains why the line sits at 3.5, but the Knicks awful play certainly contributes. This is game 2 of a 4-games in 5 nights roadie for New York that might actually serve to bring the team together a little bit. Adversity outside the locker room can take the spotlight off the problems within for a few days, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the Knicks actually put together a few decent performances. That being said, when teams go on these tough trips, it's best to play each game by looking at the previous. So, let's see how New York looks in Denver, and react accordingly. I'll tell you all right now I've got my eyes on the NEXT 3 games after this one. WAIT AND SEE on the side, and UNDER lean on total.
NBA Betting Preview: Phoenix Suns at Miami Heat
By: Jeff Mattingly
Phoenix has an overall 6-4 record thanks to winning five of six after a slow start, including a 100-94 home win over the Denver Nuggets on Monday. "I think guys are starting to get comfortable playing with each other and it's shown in the last couple of games we've played," said guard Jason Richardson. The Suns won on the second night of a back-to-back for the first time this season despite making just four three-point field goals after making a franchise-record 22 3-pointers against the Lakers the previous night. Four starters scored in double figures for just the second time this season and they received 36 bench points. The team is 5-5 ATS on the season and 1-0 ATS in non-conference games.
The Suns have dropped four of the last five meetings overall against the Heat after winning the previous five contests. Phoenix is 7-5 against the Heat since point guard Steve Nash returned to the Valley of the Sun prior to the 2004-05 season. Despite the recent struggles in the series, the team has won four of its last five games in Miami and have an all-time mark of 15-7 on the road against the Heat. During this current stretch of three games in four days, the Suns will have played the Lakers on two days rest, the Nuggets on three days rest and tonight's opponent that has enjoyed three days off.
Miami is a work in progress and ball movement remains a key point in practice even after a 109-100 victory that saw guard Dwyane Wade score 31 points and LeBron James adding 23. "We've all just got to come together," said Wade. "Everyone has to continue to get comfortable." James has now scored in double figures in 288 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the NBA. One player that is seeming to struggle in his new surroundings is Chris Bosh, who is averaging 14.5 points per game and six rebounds, following a season that saw him post career highs of 24.0 and 10.8. The team is 0-2 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.
The Heat have a 1-2 record against Western Conference opponents thus far after posting an even 15-15 mark during the 2009-10 campaign. A key component to Miami's success during the season has been winning the third quarter, outscoring opponents by a 273-196 margin in their first nine games. Defensively, the team has been impressive at times by holding opponents to an average of 93.3 points per game over the course of the season, but that number has risen to 109.3 points allowed in their last three contests.
Bettors will be interested in backing the Suns due to their 5-1 ATS mark versus the Eastern Conference, while the Heat are 35-17-2 ATS versus the Pacific Division.
NBA Betting Preview: Chicago Bulls vs San Antonio Spurs
By: Jeff Mattingly
Chicago started a seven-game road trip with a solid 95-92 win at Houston on Tuesday night, which was keyed by connecting on 8 of 12 3-pointers to win their first game away from home in three tries this season. “It was a great way to start the trip,” said Joakim Noah. The Bulls seemed to be in trouble at the close of the third quarter by being down eight points and Derrick Rose sitting with four fouls, but the star point guard scored 15 of his game-high 33 points in the fourth quarter to lead the team to victory. All wins are big on the team’s annual circus trip, as they are a dismal 11-61 since 1999. Chicago is 15-5 ATS versus Southwest division opponents over the last three years.
The Bulls swept last year’s season series with San Antonio for the first time since 1997-98 (2-0) and are 4-6 in their last 10 games versus the Spurs. Chicago is 27-45 all-time against San Antonio, including a 9-26 mark in the Alamo City. In two games against the Spurs last year, Rose averaged 20.0 points, 6.5 assists and 5.0 rebounds per game in 34 minutes played. The team has not won three straight over the Spurs since they ran off six straight wins from 1995-96 to 1997-98.
San Antonio is off to an 8-1 start to the 2010-11 campaign and will be searching to match the best 10-game start in franchise history with a win tonight. “I really didn’t expect to start like this,” said Manu Ginobili. “The great thin is that we’ve been making a lot of shots. That’s really helped.” The Spurs are connecting on an NBA-best 44 percent of their 3-point attempts, including an 11 of 20 showing from beyond the arc in their 117-104 victory at Oklahoma City on Sunday. San Antonio is 10-10 ATS the last three years when playing as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.
The Spurs were led by forward Tim Duncan’s play against the Bulls last year, averaging 21.5 points, 10.5 rebounds and 3.00 blocks per game. San Antonio’s 12-time All-Star has struggled this season, scoring in single digits in three straight games for the first time in his career. He will look to turn things around against a team that he has scored at least 10 in all but one of his 24 career games against Chicago.
Bettors will likely back the Bulls due to their 8-2 ATS mark as a road underdog of 5.0 to 10.5 points, while the Spurs are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 games after scoring 100 points or more.