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NBA News and Notes Wednesday, 11/25

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Miami (8-5, 6-7 ATS) at Orlando (11-3, 9-5 ATS)

The Magic go after their sixth straight victory when they welcome the Heat to Amway Arena in a battle between Southeast Division rivals.

Miami has been off since Sunday, when it edged the Hornets 102-101, ending a three-game losing skid. However, the Heat never came close to covering as a 10-point home favorite, their sixth consecutive ATS setback. Since starting the season 6-1 SU and ATS, Miami is 2-4, with both victories being by a single point. Also, the Heat have surrendered more than 100 points in all five of their losses while surrendering 93 points or fewer in seven of their eight victories.

Orlando went to Toronto on Sunday and dumped the Raptors 104-96 as a 3½-point road favorite, coming two days after an impressive 83-78 upset victory over the Celtics in Boston. The Magic have won five in a row, going 4-1 ATS, including three consecutive spread-covers entering tonight. During the winning streak, Orlando is outscoring opponents by an average of 10 ppg (96-86), holding all five opponents to 96 points or less.

This is the first meeting of the season between these instate rivals, and it’s a series that Orlando has dominated, winning 10 of the last 11 while going 8-2-1 ATS (7-2-1 ATS as a favorite). Going back further, the Magic are on a 10-2-1 ATS roll against Miami, including 5-0-1 ATS in the last six at Amway Arena. Finally, the host is 4-1-1 ATS in the past six.

Miami’s 0-6 ATS slide includes four straight non-covers against Eastern Conference foes, but the Heat have covered in eight of their last 11 on Wednesday. The Magic are on ATS upticks of 4-1 overall, 14-5 versus the Eastern Conference, 7-1 in divisional contests and 4-1 on Wednesday.

For the Heat, the over is on runs of 4-0 overall, 5-1 on Wednesday, 13-5-1 after a SU victory and 23-8-1 after a non-cover, but the under is 11-2 in their last 13 after an outright win. Orlando has topped the total in six of seven at home and six straight on Wednesday. Finally, the over is 5-2-1 in the last eight Heat-Magic matchups.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and OVER

Dallas (10-4, 9-5 ATS) at Houston (8-6, 9-5 ATS)

The Mavericks and Rockets hook up for the second time in two weeks, with Houston welcoming its Southwest Division rivals to the Toyota Center.

Dallas’ five-game winning streak came to a halt in stunning fashion Tuesday night, losing 111-103 as a 13-point favorite. Dirk Nowitzki (28 points, 10 rebounds) posted a double-double, but it wasn’t enough to keep the Mavs from blowing a nine-point lead midway through the fourth quarter. Dallas went 4-1 ATS during its current winning streak, and despite last night’s implosion, they’re still 9-4 ATS since a season-opening upset loss to the Wizards.

Houston has been consistently inconsistent of late, alternating SU wins and losses in its last 11 games in a row, and it comes into this one off Saturday’s 113-106 home victory over the Kings, falling short as an 11-point chalk. Since starting the year on a 5-1 ATS roll, the Rockets have split the cash in their last eight games (1-2 ATS at home).

These teams met back on Nov. 10 in Dallas, and the Mavericks rolled to a 121-103 victory as a 6½-point home favorite. Dallas is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings and 12-4 SU and ATS in the last 16, with the winner covering the spread in all 16 contests. Additionally, the Mavs have cashed in four of their last five trips to the Toyota Center, and the ‘dog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.

Dallas is on ATS upticks of 5-2 on the highway, 5-2 against Southwest Division rivals, 15-6 on Wednesday and 5-0 against opponents with a winning record. The Rockets are riding positive ATS runs of 9-4 overall, 6-2 at home and 4-0 on Wednesday.

The under has hit in five of the last six series meetings in Houston. Also, the Rockets are on “under” runs of 8-3 as a favorite, 7-2 as a home favorite, 18-8 on Wednesday and 45-22-1 against Southwest Division foes, while Dallas has stayed low in eight of its last 10 when playing on back-to-back nights. However, nine of the Houston’s last 13 overall have hurdled the total, and the Mavericks are on “over’ stretches of 4-1 as an underdog, 8-2 as a road pup and 4-0 as a road ‘dog of less than five points.

ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS

 
Posted : November 25, 2009 8:29 am
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NBA RoundUp for 11/25
by Dan Bebe

48 more minutes for Monta Ellis. Two games in a row, 48 minutes for Monta Ellis. This has been a nice short-term boost for Golden State, but this is going to take a toll. Ellis has racked up 182 minutes in his last 4 games, and he's clearly the go-to guy with Stephen Jackson gone. But it really doesn't matter how good he is or how his motor is seemingly running at "full" all the time, this is a bad decision.

With the intensity of modern basketball, Monta Ellis WILL - not might - WILL suffer an injury if he keeps playing this many minutes, and things will get ugly in the Golden State.

Sports Wagering

Bobcats/Raptors - Bobcats by 2 at home with a total of 194. I love this line, and I'll make no bones about it. I also really like that Toronto beat the piss out of Indiana at home last night, so folks won't be afraid to bet the Raptors, and we can fade them. Charlotte is coming off a similarly large-scale beatdown of the Pacers in their last game, and I believe they'll continue to play good ball tonight against Toronto. The Raptors are a miserable road team so far this year, and I really don't see that changing against the slow-tempo Bobcats who figure to really try to take Toronto out of their comfort zone, whatever that is. My favorite part about this matchup is the comparison of home/road splits. The Bobcats are a dismal 0-7 away from home SU, and 4-2 on their home floor, a difference in win percentage of 67%! The Raptors aren't much better: they're 5-2 at home, and 2-6 on the road. Not to mention the fact that Toronto has to hop a plane and fly from Canada to North Carolina, not an easy jaunt by any means. This is going to be a team that plays with a little less bounce in their step, while Charlotte is better-rested, and should open this one up for a 9-10 point win. I also believe that as a result of the long travel for the Raptors, they won't be able to push the ball as well, and this game should go Under the posted total.

Pacers/Clippers - This line is OFF, as rumors of Eric Gordon potentially making his return swirl around Clippers camp. This is a good reason for the line to be off, since Gordon is a huge re-addition to this team. His ability to hit shots is something that most of the other guys haven't been able to do, though Al Thornton is starting to get some strength back in his legs. Thornton's return to health might have something to do with the Clippers' back to back wins, and this team is somehow only 3 games under .500 right now (I know, mind-boggling). The Clippers are 3-3 ATS on the road, though they're just 2-4 SU, which means this team is losing close games away from home. This game figures to be a relatively short spread, with Indiana the likely favorite due partially to home court advantage. Still, Indiana has been playing awful basketball lately, and after getting bopped upside the head by the Raptors last night, they have to come home to host the suddenly-competent Clippers. This isn't a game I like very much, since I don't really trust either team. I think the Pacers have a nice shot of waking up in this one, but they may not have the energy to sustain it for the full 48 minutes. The Clippers can't score like the Raptors, so if Granger pops off for 7 more threes, they'll win this one, but if the Clippers get Gordon back, they suddenly have another solid offensive option. I expect to see Indiana favored by 5 at home with a total near 204.

Celtics/Sixers - Boston by 12.5 at home with a total of 185.5. This line seemed pretty high for a Boston team that really hasn't been playing all that well, but at the same time, the Sixers have been equally bad. What's more, Elton Brand only played half of last night's game because of a sore hamstring, so he may very well miss the game with Boston. I might be so inclined to drop a unit on Boston because of the potential injury's effect on the line. If Brand is indeed out, this line could very well jump to 14.5, and given his 1-for-9 shooting performance last night, my guess is that he'll miss this one and maybe another game or two. In terms of the actual handicapping, I think both teams are slumping, so there really isn't much value on either side. I'm going to go ahead and advise playing the injury line on the side, and avoiding the total altogether.

Magic/Heat - The battle of Florida has no line. There are few things I hate more than no line. Oh well, guess we'll just do our best to figure this sucker out. The Heat are 2-4 in their last 6 games, with the only wins coming at home against the winless Nets and the undermanned Hornets (who, at the time, were coming off some big home wins and in a prime letdown spot, yet only lost by 1 to Miami). What this all means is that the Heat are getting exposed. They started the year with a flurry, playing solid team defense, and confusing opponents with their defensive intensity. That intensity has waned a bit over this losing streak, and the Heat have allowed over 100 points in all 4 of those losses, and the only team of those 6 that failed to break 100 was the Nets, and they couldn't break 100 in 3OT periods. The Magic, meanwhile, have won 5 straight, and are 9-5 ATS. The return of Rashard Lewis has really dampened the impact of Jameer Nelson going down, and this team is rolling right now. They're even playing some defense, though against the Heat you really only have to defend one guy. I expect the Magic to open as home favorites of 8 or 9 with a total near 190.

Pistons/Cavaliers - The Pistons are underdogs by 5 with a total of 183.5, and I think this is pretty accurate. Normally, with a line in this neighborhood, I'd wonder if perhaps it was a trap, but I actually think there is just a feeling that the Cavs won't play their best game here, and I'm not sure I agree. I really like the way Cleveland has begun to get their superstar some easy points every so often with an offense that has averaged 99 points this year, more than most would expect. Cleveland also doesn't play again until Friday in a road game against the Bobcats, so it's not really a look-ahead spot, either. The Cavs have won 7 of 8, with the lone loss coming at Washington, so they're playing good ball, and are 5-2 both at home and on the road. The Pistons are in a bit of a slump right now, so their value is decent, but their ability to win makes even good value a bit suspect. Detroit has lost 5 straight, 4 on their recent road trip to the West coast, and should be pretty happy to get home. The Pistons are 3-2 at home, not great but not bad, and an awful 2-7 on the road, so there's a pretty stark home/road split. I think Ben Wallace puts forth a nice effort against his former team, and I think this is a line we should look at under a microscope before putting any money on it. The total of 183.5 feels very low for a Cavs team that is suddenly scoring the ball, and with Detroit consistently scoring in the 90's (except against the best defensive teams in the NBA), I think this one has a nice chance of hitting 190.

Hornets/Bucks - The Hornets, believe it or not, are home favorites of 4 with a total of 200.5. I think some of this has to do with the way the Hornets have been crashing the boards, and truth be told, that does scare me a bit. They even played solid ball on the road against the Heat, and this team is somehow stepping up a bit in Chris Paul's absence. I don't think it can last, but damn if it isn't working in the short term. They've been shooting a fantastic percentage from 3-point land, and that's really been keeping them in the game. It's tough to handicap how long a long-range hot streak is going to last, though the Bucks defense doesn't exactly bring the fear, so I'm not sure this is the game where it all comes crashing down. Still, the Bucks are getting 4 points against a team without their best player, so you have to at least consider them. Milwaukee is coming off a bad loss to the Spurs, though they remain a respectable 8-4 on the season. What if I mentioned that 6 of those 8 wins have come at home? Yeah, the Bucks aren't too impressive on the road, and we're seeing that reflected strongly in this 4-point line. I think the play here is New Orleans or nothing at all. In terms of the total, I am not a fan, initially, of either side, though New Orleans has been trying to force the tempo and get open threes.

Timberwolves/Nuggets - Wolves getting 9 at home to the visiting Nuggets with a total of 202. The Wolves are coming off a loss in Los Angeles to the Clippers, and are a thrilling 1-13 on the season, only betting than the winless Nets. It makes this team very, very difficult to trust. They did cover in that loss to the Clips, but against a top-tier team like the Nuggets, I'm not sure I can side with either squad. Denver is a machine, and the T'Wolves are Al Jefferson and some other guys. The best play in this game is likely going to be on the total. The Wolves have played 5 straight games to the Under, and the Nuggets generally slow their game down a tad away from home, where the screaming banshees in the crowd known as "Nuggets fans" aren't there to keep Denver at the breakneck pace they so enjoy. Still, Denver is coming off a very low-scoring game last night, and I'm just not sure how long you can expect this team to go without a 120-point performance. The lean is to the Under, given Minnesota might not break 85, and no leans on the side.

Spurs/Warriors - This line is OFF, though I've already seen that Ginobili is out, so they can go ahead and put this line out already. This game scares me for a number of reasons. First, the Warriors have been playing MUCH better basketball since Stephen Jackson's sorry-ass was unloaded, now posting back-to-back wins over the Blazers and Mavericks, BIG accomplishments for the young squad. So, we lean Warriors? Not necessarily. The Spurs, notoriously slow starters, appear to slowly be coming together, and much moreso at home than on the road. They beat Washington by 22 at home, then came right back and shut down the upstart Bucks. Those were nice little tests for the Spurs, but now a high-octane offensive team comes to town, and the task for the Spurs is going to be to force the Warriors into jump-shots. I expect this line to open with the Spurs favored by just under double-digits, with a total up over 200, maybe even as high as 210. At those numbers, this is a game I'd avoid, but let's wait and see.

Rockets/Mavericks - Rockets by 4 at home with a total of 201.5. The Rockets are 8-6 on the year, but are on one of the strangest stretches of any team in the NBA. In their 11 games thus far in November, the Rockets are 6-5, but they got to that mark by alternating wins and losses in every game. I've pointed out trends like this before, and they rarely last, but it is pretty strange that this has last as long as it has. It certainly could continue, given the Rockets won their last game, at home, against the upstart Kings. Now they host a very good team, and a damn good team coming off a home LOSS to the Golden State Warriors. In this spot, I think we should wait and see how this line moves. Let's watch closely how the public reacts to the Mavericks losing a stinker at home. It would seem the gut move would be to get on Houston since they just lost their hats on the Mavericks last night, and wouldn't want to get back on them. We may indeed get some value with Dirk's bunch if we wait this one out. The total is pretty accurate, I feel, as Houston has begun to slow down just a tad, and the Mavericks are an execution offense, running plays on almost every possession, which works wonders for their shooting percentage most nights, but they just don't take that many shots. I lean Mavs, but I lean HARDER to waiting and seeing what we can get.

Suns/Grizzlies - Phoenix by 11.5 with a total of 222. Let's break this one down team by team. Phoenix is 11-3 on the season, 8-6 ATS, though they've done the majority of their damage against the spread when they're coming off an ATS loss. They are not. The Suns covered against the Pistons, who just looked overmatched on their recent road trip, and Phoenix was the beneficiary of a completely exhausted Pistons club, and just run them out of the gym. The Suns have also played to 4 straight Unders. Here, Phoenix gets a better test. After starting the season 1-8, the Grizzlies have rattled off 4 wins in 5 games, shooting a great percentage from the field in the process. Making shots can often help your defense get set, and as a result, the Grizzlies posted a few Unders before the books adjusted, and they've gone back Over the total in the last 3. In addition, the only game the Grizzlies have played in with a total over 220 has stayed Under. All these values make this game pretty tough to predict. You know damn well the game is going to move at a decent clip, and the Grizzlies are liable to get caught up in the madness of the Suns' style, but can they continue to play well enough offensively to stay close in this one. I have slight leans to the dog and the Under, but this game, as it stands, might be a no-play when we get to decision time.

Kings/Knicks - Sacramento by 4.5 with a total of 218. I have to say, I just watched the Lakers/Knicks game, and New York missed an absolute TON of open shots, typical for a team coming off a heartbreaking loss, which New York was after losing that OT contest in Boston. Still, they were getting open. You can say anything you want about the Lakers' defense, but it wasn't that impressive; they merely got a little closer to the bucket than the Knicks, and shot a better percentage as a result. This game was something of a surprise, though, since the Knicks had been playing some of their best ball of the year before completely decomposing in this one. I'm not sure they could play any worse against the Kings, so handicap this game assuming New York will play a little bit better. The Kings are in a tough spot, returning home after a rough road trip through the Southwest. They lost two grinders against Dallas and Houston, then got run out of Memphis, so after such a nice stretch, Sacramento has regressed a little. Of course, we all know how tough it can be to return home after a road trip, but after such poor results on the trip, I think Sacramento will be more motivated than most teams coming home. Still, this game is yelling at me to just scroll down and look at the next one. I like the Under, since I find i hard to believe Sacramento shoots the ball well coming home, but no strong leans yet.

Trailblazers/Nets - This line is OFF, and being the last game of the night, the lack of line does nothing to make me want to handicap it, but here are some quick thoughts. The Blazers are coming off a loss in Golden State, then 2 monster home wins over mediocre teams. The Nets are coming off a lot of losses, 14 to be exact, and they are showing no signs of breaking through. This line should be double digits, and I'm not sure I can suggest a play on the Nets, even getting 12 or 13 points. They're just that awful, and coming off a game against the Nuggets, they'll be tired, in addition to being, well, a bad team. The Blazers seem to have taken out some of their aggression on the Wolves and Pistons, so it's tough to say if they'll continue to play with the same anger here against the Nets. What is interesting, though, is that Portland has scored 228 points in those two games, averaging well over 100 despite being pinned as a defensive team. Nate McMillan has given the ball to his star, Brandon Roy, and the offense is clicking, and moving a bit quicker, as well. This team has a fantastic defense, so if they can continue to get some easy buckets, Portland can only get better. This is one of the teams in the NBA I trust to cover big spreads as their defense can hold opponents down and not allow the backdoor covers that other teams seem to enjoy doling out. I think we'll see a pretty darn low total in this one, too, as New Jersey might not score 70 points.

Fantasy Advice

The Warriors - Yeah, that's right, all of 'em. I'm not sure how many cases of "5 Hour Energy" they're going through in the Bay Area right now, but it can't be less than 10-15 a week. The Warriors used SIX basketball players in their win over the Mavericks. SIX! Three guys played ALL 48 minutes. This team is going to poop out at some point, but right now you can get some monster numbers out of any of them. Then, sell high, since eventually they're all going to suffer knee injuries.

 
Posted : November 25, 2009 9:00 am
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Toronto Raptors vs. Charlotte Bobcats

The Toronto Raptors and the Charlotte Bobcats will both be trying to pick up a win on Wednesday when they battle at Time Warner Cable Arena.

Jose Calderon netted 21 points and dished out seven assists to lead the Raptors past the Pacers 123-112 on Tuesday night.

Toronto covered as 5.5-point home favorites, while the game played OVER the 215-point total listed by oddsmakers.

The Bobcats defeated Indiana 104-88 as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (188.5).

Nazr Mohammed scored 18 points for Charlotte and Boris Diaw added 17 points in the win.

Team records:
Toronto: 7-8 SU, 8-7 ATS
Charlotte: 4-9 SU, 8-5 ATS

Toronto most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 6-4
Before playing Boston are 6-4
After playing Indiana are 4-6
After a win are 5-5

Charlotte most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 2-8
Before playing Cleveland are 4-6
After playing Indiana are 3-7
After a win are 5-5

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Charlotte
Toronto is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Charlotte
Toronto is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Charlotte
Toronto is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing Charlotte
Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Charlotte's last 5 games when playing Toronto
Charlotte is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
Charlotte is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games at home

Next up:
Toronto at Boston, Friday, November 27
Charlotte home to Cleveland, Friday, November 27

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Indiana Pacers

The Los Angeles Clippers and the Indiana Pacers will both be gunning for a victory on Wednesday when they meet at Conseco Fieldhouse.

Al Thornton finished with 31 points and 10 rebounds to lead the Clippers over the Timberwolves 91-87 on Monday night.

Los Angeles failed to cover as 5.5-point home favorites, while the teams played UNDER the 191.5-point total set by oddsmakers.

Danny Granger had 36 points and nine boards for Indiana in its 123-112 loss to Toronto on Tuesday night.

Toronto covered as 5.5-point home favorites, while the game played OVER the 215-point total listed by oddsmakers.

Current streak:
Los Angeles has won 2 straight games.
Indiana has lost 4 straight games.

Team records:
Los Angeles: 6-9 SU, 4-11 ATS
Indiana: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS

Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 5-5
Before playing Detroit are 5-5
After playing Minnesota are 4-6
After a win are 3-7

Indiana most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 3-7
Before playing Dallas are 3-7
After playing Toronto are 3-7
After a loss are 5-5

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the LA Clippers last 6 games when playing on the road against Indiana
LA Clippers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of the LA Clippers last 10 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the LA Clippers last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indiana's last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indiana's last 10 games when playing LA Clippers
Indiana is 12-3 SU in their last 15 games when playing at home against LA Clippers

Next up:
LA Clippers at Detroit, Friday, November 27
Indiana home to Dallas, Friday, November 27

Miami Heat vs. Orlando Magic

Divisional bragging rights will be on the line on Wednesday when the Miami Heat and the Orlando Magic meet at Amway Arena.

The Heat defeated New Orleans 102-101 as a 10-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (192.5).

Dwyane Wade scored a game-high 31 points for Miami, while Michael Beasley added 17 points and nine rebounds in the win.

The Magic defeated Toronto 104-96 as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (207.5).

Vince Carter netted a game-high 24 points for Orlando and J.J. Redick added 19 points in the win.

Current streak:
Orlando has won 5 straight games.

Team records:
Miami: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS
Orlando: 11-3 SU, 9-5 ATS

Miami most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 6-4
Before playing Washington are 4-6
After playing New Orleans are 3-7
After a win are 5-5

Orlando most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 5-5
Before playing Atlanta are 6-4
After playing Toronto are 6-4
After a win are 7-3

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing on the road against Orlando
Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Orlando is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Orlando is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
Orlando is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Orlando's last 7 games at home

Next up:
Miami home to Washington, Friday, November 27
Orlando at Atlanta, Thursday, November 26

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics

The Philadelphia 76ers and the Boston Celtics will both be trying to pick up a win on Wednesday when they battle at TD Garden.

Lou Williams dropped 26 points for Philadelphia in its 108-107 loss to Washington on Tuesday night.

Washington cashed as 2.5-point home underdogs, while the teams played OVER the 198-point total listed by oddsmakers.

The Celtics defeated New York 107-105 in overtime as a 10-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (195.5).

Paul Pierce scored a game-high 33 points to go along with nine rebounds and six for Boston, while Rajon Rondo had 14 points, nine rebounds and 10 assists.

Current streak:
Philadelphia has lost 3 straight games.

Team records:
Philadelphia: 5-9 SU, 5-9 ATS
Boston: 10-4 SU, 5-9 ATS

Philadelphia most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 7-3
Before playing Atlanta are 5-5
After playing Washington are 5-5
After a loss are 4-6

Boston most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 5-5
Before playing Toronto are 7-3
After playing New York are 6-4
After a win are 6-4

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Philadelphia's last 18 games when playing on the road against Boston
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boston
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Boston is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
Boston is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games

Next up:
Philadelphia home to Atlanta, Friday, November 27
Boston home to Toronto, Friday, November 27

Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

The division rival Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves are set to renew hostilities on Wednesday when they meet at Target Center.

Carmelo Anthony had 27 points and six rebounds to lead the Nuggets over the Nets 101-87 on Tuesday night.

Denver covered as 13.5-point home favorites, while the teams played UNDER the 203-point total listed by sportsbooks.

Jonny Flynn drained 17 points for the Timberwolves in their 91-87 loss to the Clippers on Monday night.

Los Angeles failed to cover as 5.5-point home favorites, while the teams played UNDER the 191.5-point total set by oddsmakers.

Current streak:
Denver has won 2 straight games.
Minnesota has lost 13 straight games.

Team records:
Denver: 10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS
Minnesota: 1-13 SU, 4-9-1 ATS

Denver most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 6-4
Before playing New York are 6-4
After playing New Jersey are 4-6
After a win are 6-4

Minnesota most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 5-5
Before playing Phoenix are 3-7
After playing LA Clippers are 4-6
After a loss are 0-10

A few trends to consider:
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Denver's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Minnesota's last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing at home against Denver

Next up:
Denver home to New York, Friday, November 27
Minnesota home to Phoenix, Friday, November 27

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Detroit Pistons

The fans at The Palace of Auburn Hills will be treated to a game between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Detroit Pistons when they take their seats on Wednesday.

The Cavaliers dominated the fourth quarter and came back to defeat the 76ers 97-91 on Saturday. The Cavaliers failed to cover the 10-point spread, while the 188 points fell UNDER the posted total of 192.5.

LeBron James led the way with a game-high 32 points, while hauling down seven boards with nine assists.

The Pistons lost to Phoenix 117-91 as a 10-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (208.5).

Charlie Villanueva and DaJuan Summers each scored 13 points for the Pistons in the loss.

Current streak:
Cleveland has won 2 straight games.
Detroit has lost 5 straight games.

Team records:
Cleveland: 10-4 SU, 6-8 ATS
Detroit: 5-9 SU, 8-6 ATS

Cleveland most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 7-3
Before playing Charlotte are 4-6
After playing Philadelphia are 7-3
After a win are 7-3

Detroit most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 6-4
Before playing LA Clippers are 6-4
After playing Phoenix are 5-5
After a loss are 2-8

A few trends to consider:
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cleveland's last 12 games when playing Detroit
Cleveland is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Detroit's last 12 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games at home
Detroit is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Cleveland

Next up:
Cleveland at Charlotte, Friday, November 27
Detroit home to LA Clippers, Friday, November 27

Milwaukee Bucks vs. New Orleans Hornets

The Milwaukee Bucks and the New Orleans Hornets will both be gunning for a victory on Wednesday when they meet at New Orleans Arena.

Ersan Ilyasova scored 20 points to lead Milwaukee in its 112-98 loss to San Antonio on Monday night.

San Antonio covered as 8.5-point home favorites, while the teams played OVER the 192.5-point total listed by sportsbooks.

The Hornets lost to Miami 102-101 as a 10-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (192.5).

Marcus Thornton led New Orleans with 24 points and Peja Stojakovic had 14 points.

Team records:
Milwaukee: 8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS
New Orleans: 6-9 SU, 7-8 ATS

Milwaukee most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 1-9
Before playing Oklahoma City are 1-9
After playing San Antonio are 7-3
After a loss are 5-5

New Orleans most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 5-5
Before playing Sacramento are 3-7
After playing Miami are 4-6
After a loss are 5-5

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Milwaukee is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 9 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Next up:
Milwaukee at Oklahoma City, Friday, November 27
New Orleans at Sacramento, Sunday, November 29

Dallas Mavericks vs. Houston Rockets

The fans at Toyota Center will be treated to a game between the Dallas Mavericks and the Houston Rockets when they take their seats on Wednesday.

Dirk Nowitzki paced Dallas with 28 points and 10 boards in its 111-103 loss to Golden State on Tuesday night.

Golden State cashed as 13-point road underdogs, while the teams played UNDER the 217.5-point total set by oddsmakers.

The Rockets outscored the Kings in the fourth quarter and came away with a 113-106 victory on Saturday. The Rockets failed to cover the 11-point spread, while the 219 points sailed OVER the posted total of 203.5.

Luis Scola led the way with 22 points and 12 rebounds, while Carl Landry added 20 in the win.

Team records:
Dallas: 10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS
Houston: 8-6 SU, 9-5 ATS

Dallas most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 9-1
Before playing Indiana are 9-1
After playing Golden State are 4-6
After a loss are 8-2

Houston most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 7-3
Before playing San Antonio are 5-5
After playing Sacramento are 9-1
After a win are 2-8

A few trends to consider:
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Dallas is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games when playing Houston
Houston is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Houston's last 13 games

Next up:
Dallas at Indiana, Friday, November 27
Houston home to San Antonio, Friday, November 27

 
Posted : November 25, 2009 10:08 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Golden State Warriors vs. San Antonio Spurs

The Golden State Warriors and the San Antonio Spurs will both be trying to pick up a win on Wednesday when they battle at AT&T Center.

Monta Ellis went for 37 points, eight assists, and four steals to lead the Warriors past the Mavericks 111-103 on Tuesday night.

Golden State cashed as 13-point road underdogs, while the teams played UNDER the 217.5-point total set by oddsmakers.

Tim Duncan dropped 24 points and hauled down 12 rebounds, as the Spurs dumped the Bucks 112-98 on Monday night.

San Antonio covered as 8.5-point home favorites, while the teams played OVER the 192.5-point total listed by sportsbooks.

Current streak:
Golden State has won 2 straight games.
San Antonio has won 2 straight games.

Team records:
Golden State: 5-8 SU, 8-5 ATS
San Antonio: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS

Golden State most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 3-7
Before playing LA Lakers are 6-4
After playing Dallas are 3-7
After a win are 3-7

San Antonio most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 8-2
Before playing Houston are 5-5
After playing Milwaukee are 9-1
After a win are 5-5

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Golden State's last 12 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
Golden State is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games
Golden State is 4-15 SU in its last 19 games on the road
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Golden State
San Antonio is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Golden State
San Antonio is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home

Next up:
Golden State home to LA Lakers, Saturday, November 28
San Antonio at Houston, Friday, November 27

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Phoenix Suns

The Memphis Grizzlies and the Phoenix Suns will both be trying to pick up a win on Wednesday when they battle at US Airways Center.

Rudy Gay went for 24 points and eight rebounds to lead the Grizzlies past the Kings 116-105 on Monday night.

Memphis covered as 5.5-point home favorites, while the teams played OVER the 206.5-point total set by oddsmakers.

The Suns defeated Detroit 117-91 as a 10-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (208.5).

Amar'e Stoudemire scored a game-high 21 points for Phoenix and Steve Nash added 20 points and nine assists in the win.

Team records:
Memphis: 5-9 SU, 7-7 ATS
Phoenix: 11-3 SU, 9-5 ATS

Memphis most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 4-6
Before playing Portland are 6-4
After playing Sacramento are 3-7
After a win are 5-5

Phoenix most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 6-4
Before playing Minnesota are 6-4
After playing Detroit are 4-6
After a win are 7-3

A few trends to consider:
Memphis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Memphis's last 9 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Memphis's last 8 games when playing Phoenix
Phoenix is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Phoenix is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Memphis
Phoenix is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing Memphis
Phoenix is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games

Next up:
Memphis at Portland, Friday, November 27
Phoenix at Minnesota, Friday, November 27

New Jersey Nets vs. Portland Trail Blazers

The New Jersey Nets and the Portland Trail Blazers will both be gunning for a victory on Wednesday when they meet at Rose Garden.

Devin Harris finished with 19 points, seven boards, six assists, and four steals off the bench for New Jersey in its 101-87 loss to Denver on Tuesday night.

Denver covered as 13.5-point home favorites, while the teams played UNDER the 203-point total listed by sportsbooks.

LaMarcus Aldridge had 24 points and 13 rebounds, as the Trail Blazers pounded the Bulls 122-98 on Monday night.

Portland covered as 8-point home favorites, while the teams played OVER the 182.5-point total set by sportsbooks.

Current streak:
New Jersey has lost 14 straight games.
Portland has won 2 straight games.

Team records:
New Jersey: 0-14 SU, 5-8-1 ATS
Portland: 11-5 SU, 10-6 ATS

New Jersey most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 4-6
Before playing Sacramento are 2-8
After playing Denver are 3-7
After a loss are 0-10

Portland most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 3-7
Before playing Memphis are 5-5
After playing Chicago are 4-6
After a win are 6-4

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Jersey's last 5 games when playing Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of New Jersey's last 18 games when playing Portland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Jersey's last 6 games when playing on the road against Portland
New Jersey is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Portland
Portland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Portland is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against New Jersey
Portland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Jersey
Portland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Jersey

Next up:
New Jersey at Sacramento, Friday, November 27
Portland home to Memphis, Friday, November 27

New York Knicks vs. Sacramento Kings

The New York Knicks and the Sacramento Kings will both be trying to pick up a win on Wednesday when they battle at ARCO Arena.

Wilson Chandler had 15 points and seven rebounds for the Knicks in their 100-90 loss to the Lakers on Tuesday night.

Los Angeles couldn't cover as 14-point home favorites, while the teams played UNDER the 212.5-point total listed by oddsmakers.

Tyreke Evans drained 28 points for Sacramento in its 116-105 loss to Memphis on Monday night.

Memphis covered as 5.5-point home favorites, while the teams played OVER the 206.5-point total set by oddsmakers.

Current streak:
New York has lost 2 straight games.
Sacramento has lost 4 straight games.

Team records:
New York: 3-11 SU, 6-8 ATS
Sacramento: 5-8 SU, 8-5 ATS

New York most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 1-9
Before playing Denver are 1-9
After playing LA Lakers are 0-10
After a loss are 2-8

Sacramento most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 6-4
Before playing New Jersey are 1-9
After playing Memphis are 3-7
After a loss are 3-7

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New York's last 6 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 9 of New York's last 12 games when playing Sacramento
New York is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
New York is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Sacramento
Sacramento is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against New York
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Sacramento's last 6 games when playing at home against New York
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 games
Sacramento is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games

Next up:
New York at Denver, Friday, November 27
Sacramento home to New Jersey, Friday, November 27

 
Posted : November 25, 2009 10:08 am
(@blade)
Posts: 318493
Illustrious Member
Topic starter
 

Tips and Trends

Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pitsons

Cavaliers (-5, O/U 183.5): After losing their first 2 games of the season, the Cavs have battled back to have the 3rd best record in the Eastern Conference. The Cavs have won 10 of their last 12 games SU, but are only 6-6 ATS during that stretch. Cleveland has been dreadful at covering spreads at home, but on the road they are 5-2 ATS this year. F LeBron James is 3rd in the NBA in scoring, at 29 PPG. Besides G Mo Williams, the Cavs are struggling to find other scoring help. The Cavaliers have won 7 games in a row SU against the Pistons.

Cavaliers are 8-3 ATS last 11 meetings in Detroit.
Under is 6-0 last 6 games as a road favorite of 5 to 10.5 points.

Key Injuries - C Shaquille O'Neal (shoulder) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 97 (Side of the Day)

Pistons: Detroit is back home after a 4 game road trip. The Pistons have lost 5 straight games SU. The Pistons really struggled defensively on their road trip, as they allowed 3 of their 4 opponents to score more than 100 points. Detroit has 6 players averaging double figures this year, but 2 of them are currently injured. G Ben Gordon needs to play better, as he's struggled since the injuries to Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince. Gordon is only averaging 13 PPG over his past 5 games. The Pistons will need to play a complete game on both offense and defense to beat their nemesis tonight.

Detroit is 5-12 ATS last 17 games as an underdog.
Under is 7-0 last 7 games as a home underdog of 5 to 10.5 points.

Key Injuries - G Richard Hamilton (ankle) is out.
F Tayshaun Prince (abdominal) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 86

Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets

Mavericks: Dallas enters tonight's game off a frustrating loss to the Clippers. The Mavericks are 5-2 ATS on the road this season. F Dirk Nowitzki leads the team with nearly 27 PPG. PG Jason Kidd is 4th in the NBA in assists, with just over 9 assists per game. The Mavericks are 5th in the NBA in point differential, as they have outscored their opponents by an average of 6 PPG. Dallas is 2-2 both SU and ATS on the second night of back to back games this year.

Mavericks are 5-0 ATS last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 8-2 last 10 games as a road underdog.

Key Injuries - F Shawn Marion (ankle) is questionable.
C Erick Dampier (sickness) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 103.

Rockets (-4, O/U 201.5): Houston has alternated wins and losses for 11 straight games. They have yet to lose 2 games in a row this season. The Rockets have lost consecutive games ATS at home. Through 14 game this year, the Rockets have played the hardest schedule in the NBA. Houston has 4 of their 5 starters averaging double digits, with F Trevor Ariza leading the way. Ariza is averaging more than 18 PPG along with over 2 steals per game. Ariza is tied for 3rd in the NBA in steals. Houston is looking for revenge against the Mavericks, having lost to them by 18 PTS 2 weeks ago.

Rockets are 6-2 ATS last 8 home games.
Under is 7-2 last 9 games as a home favorite.

Key Injuries - G Tracy McGrady (knee) is questionable.
F Shane Battier (foot) is PROBABLE.

PROJECTED SCORE: 105 (OVER - Total of the Day)

 
Posted : November 25, 2009 11:48 am
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