NBA News and Notes Wednesday 11/3

NBA RoundUp for 11/3
By Dan Bebe

Detroit Pistons @ Atlanta Hawks with a total of N/A;
No surprise this line is off - Detroit has injury issues (already), and both teams are playing on Tuesday night, so the results of those games are going to impact this line quite a bit. Certainly, if you're looking to find a way to back Detroit, you'd love to see the Pistons play a decent game against Boston, maybe cover by a bucket, OR get completely blasted, since both would leave value on the Pistons side. Problem here is that Detroit isn't deep in the frontcourt, and, when healthy, feature 3 starters that are more than getting on in their years. Tayshaun, Rip and Big Ben are always banged up, and big minutes on back-to-back nights is often disastrous for a slow, old team. Atlanta, meanwhile, has a game in Cleveland to worry about beforehand, then comes home for this one, which should feature a relatively beefy line, perhaps right around 10. The Hawks are younger, bigger and stronger, and should fair better on the second night of 2, making a "fair" line on this game actually a small value on the Atlanta side. Sorry Detroit, I know you're the team in my back yard, but you were epically bad in fatigue spots last year, and I don't see how much changes. Lean to ATLANTA and to the OVER since the Hawks are going to run Detroit ragged, if they have their way.

Charlotte Bobcats @ New Jersey Nets (Pk) with a total of 185;
The Nets have been able to squeeze by a few bad teams at home with the help of some wild 4th quarter comebacks, and then got absolutely destroyed by a much better opponent, and now finally have a chance to play a team from the middle of the pack. The Bobcats, historically bad on the road, open at a Pick line with the single worst team in the NBA from a year ago. How many playoff teams can go into Jersey and not get favored by even a point? This is a strong opening number for the Nets, and Charlotte is a very tidy 0-3 to start the year. The more the losses mount, the more pressure starts to build - just ask the guys on the other side of the court. Here's my take - this game is going to be hard-fought. Charlotte knows they can get their first win against a bad team, but really have looked downright bad so far. Can you back a team that hasn't yet played a good game? I cannot, at least not one that has no track record. Lean to JERSEY and the UNDER.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Orlando Magic (-16.5) with a total of 200;
Wowzers! Back-to-back nights for both teams, but we get the deliciously insane opening number regardless. I guess oddsmakers figure there's not much point in waiting to put out a number like this one. Outside of an injury to Dwight Howard, there isn't much that's going to move this opening number more than a half point, so the books are willing to take some early action. This is a total stay-away game. Orlando could very well win by 35, but at that number, the only way I'd ever consider is the underdog. But there's already turmoil in Minnesota a week into the season, with coach Kurt Rambis getting told by the worthless T'Wolves brass that he absolutely, positively has to play Kevin Love in the 4th quarter, no matter what. Point guard Jonny Flynn is getting ready to return, but he'll have minimal impact on a game that no one should bother watching. Just put your 1/10th of a unit play on the Wolves plus the points, do it all year long, and then go back after the season ends and buy yourself a steak dinner on the 1-2 units of winnings. PASS on the side, lean to UNDER.

Indiana Pacers @ Philadelphia 76ers (-1.5) with a total of 202;
Outside of a stretch at the beginning of the 4th quarter in San Antonio, I've really liked how Indiana's offense has looked this year. The defense still needs a ton of work, but as Darren Collison gets more comfortable with this team, and as Josh McRoberts and Tyler Hansbrough work themselves into the mix, and as Mike Dunleavy's minutes increase, the Pacers are a team that should actually get better as the year goes on. Philadelphia played last night in Washington, so this line is actually about 2 points lower than it would have been otherwise, and it's a darn shame because the Pacers +3.5 against a team, in my opinion, that's not as good as them would have been a nice play. Instead, the line is basically negligible, and the Sixers find themselves in one of the few situations where they actually excelled last year, on back-to-backs. They covered a ton of spreads in "fatigue" spots. They did not, however, at home. This game also features the added "REVENGE" angle, since Indiana beat Philadelphia by 13 at home as a 5.5-point favorite. So, wait a minute, you're saying...or at least I hope that's what you're saying. Indiana was a 5.5-point home favorite (or roughly 2.5 on a neutral court) when both teams were on a back-to-back, and now they're a 1.5-point road underdog when only Philly is playing a b2b? Well, my friends, this is our first 2010 exposure to the revenge adjustment. Oddsmakers are tipping the line in Philadelphia's direction, to the tune of about 3 full points (since Indy as a 2.5-point neutral court favorite, should be a 1.5-point road FAVE with Philly on b2b). Our job here is to decide if Philly is going to play a better game, and the adjustment is worthwhile, or if it's creating bonus value on Indy's side. Personally, tiny lean to PHILADELPHIA and OVER.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics (-6.5) with a total of 186;
This line is a hair inflated, but at the same time, I can sort of see why. Milwaukee has played like total turds on the road so far, and Boston has made it clear that winning more home games is a top priority for 2010-2011 so they can get that sweet, sweet home court edge in Playoff series with the Magic and revamped Heat. So no, I'm not really surprised by this line. I am, however, a little intrigued in how Milwaukee follows up last year's unbelievable back-to-back game ATS success this year. The Bucks are already 1-0 on the second night of a b2b, so, despite the tiny sample size, they're off on the right foot. Boston, meanwhile, played miserably in their only b2b spot so far this year, losing in Cleveland to the LeBron and Mo-less Cavs. Boston is an older team, and I know I'll get blasted for saying it, but they're just not on the right aged legs to cover big numbers in these spots. Barring a monster blowout in Detriot where the starters play only 24 minutes, this is a spot where I actually like the Bucks to keep it close. Obviously, I wish we could get 7, and maybe we will later in the day, but as for now, lean to MILWAUKEE and the OVER.

New Orleans Hornets @ Houston Rockets (-5.5) with a total of 201.5;
This line surprised the hell out of me. Neither team played yesterday, so there aren't any particularly strong scheduling elements at work, but yet, Houston is getting a ton of respect from the oddsmakers laying this kind of number to the Hornets. Mind you, New Orleans is a perfect 3-0 on the season, and the Rockets remain winless. So, the question then exists, is this line high because Houston is finally going to wake up? That's where line analysis and money analysis will help us a great deal, since I have to believe most people's initial reaction to this line is, "Hot damn, an undefeated team catching 5.5 against a winless team??" Then again, maybe people just really like the Rockets despite their poor start. Houston is a team that I made very public my opinion that they are not nearly as good as people think, and that the return of Yao wasn't going to change much. Long way to go, but Houston looks like a team without any defensive identity. Early lean to NEW ORLEANS (with money/line analysis pending) and the OVER.

Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets (-3.5) with a total of 206;
The Nuggets are off to a decent start, despite all the negative press surrounding Carmelo Anthony. They clubbed the Jazz at home, lost in New Orleans to a quality Hornets team, and then won in Houston, shaking off some early-season road jitters. Now, back home, it's time for the regular season to really settle in, and to me, this is an interesting chance to try to exert a little home dominance. The reticence to back Denver comes from the fact that the Mavericks were the best road team in basketball last season, and they picked right up where they left off with an easy road win over the hapless Clippers. Dallas isn't afraid to play in altitude, either, and this game is actually the start of a home-and-home series between these two teams, finishing in Texas in a couple days. I usually like the team that loses the first matchup in these, though I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see either team win both. For that reason, it might be best to sit and watch this one, see how the teams play each other, and try to find a reason that a stat might even out in the second game. First pass, though, I lean slightly to the NUGGETS and the OVER.

Toronto Raptors @ Utah Jazz (-11) with a total of 208;
This is a pretty bulky line for a Jazz team that only finally picked up a win in their third game, and considering Toronto has actually shown some signs of life, you might be looking to try to find a way to back that underdog. I'm here to request that you look into passing on this game. Toronto had whatever small amount of wind that was in their sails taken out by that Sacramento comeback, and considering Utah has some strong bodies around the rim, Reggie Evans isn't going to be getting Toronto all the extra looks they were getting in Sactown. I'm very curious to see how Utah plays Andrea Bargnani, since Al Jefferson most likely doesn't want to move out to the perimeter. He might just not have any choice. Fact is, Utah is too strong, and too balanced for Toronto, and this line is right where it should be. I would advocate passing, most likely, since this isn't any sort of letdown or look-ahead for the Jazz, and Jerry Sloan is going to want to make sure his team does everything right. I suppose if I had to suggest anything, it'd be a tiny, tiny lean to UTAH, and also to the OVER, but that, of course, assumes Toronto might score a little?

San Antonio Spurs @ Phoenix Suns (Pk) with a total of 208;
Demons, anyone? The Suns finally got over that hump last year, and now they have to try to tackle the Spurs without Amar'e. I have to give Phoenix credit, this team of little guys is really playing hard, but there are certain things they just cannot overcome. Portland's rebounding was one, the Lakers gigantic size was another. They handled Utah, and considering the Spurs really aren't the big, scary team they used to be, this isn't an unwinnable game for Phoenix. The Suns definitely need to shoot the ball well to win any of their games, but Robin Lopez has emerged as a half-decent defender and rebounder, which means that the real issues for Phoenix come when they're at a size disadvantage at multiple positions. The Lakers have big players at every spot, and so does Portland. The Spurs don't, really. Duncan is a great low post presence, but the rest of the Spurs are kind of finesse guys nowadays. To me, this game means more to Phoenix, and at a pick line, some motivational edge might make the difference. I still think the Spurs are due for their standard early-season 1-3 or 2-5 stretch, so with that in mind, lean to PHOENIX and to the OVER, as I see no way the Spurs can truly slow down the Suns with this roster.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors with a total of N/A;
The Grizzlies head to the Bay Area off a showdown in Los Angeles, and, once again, the expectations of this game hinge largely on the results of the game with the Lakers. I do believe, though, that the Warriors will come ready to play, and the first team to 110 points is probably going to come away with the win. I'll lay it out with some conditional logic (thank you to Cal's "Philosophy of Logic" course for this little tidbit)...IF the Grizzlies lose big to the Lakers, THEN this game is going to be close. IF the Grizzlies lose a heartbreaker to LA, THEN Golden State has a nice shot to cover. IF the Grizzlies beat the Lakers outright, THEN consider betting Golden State as soon as the line comes out. Got all that?

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Clippers with a total of N/A;
Will the Clippers ever get up off their backs? This team is a complete mess, and with Baron Davis out because he did, indeed, show up to camp fat (as I noted on some podcasts), the turmoil has begun. We'll probably see a line in this one similar to what we've been seeing with LAC...home underdog that has trouble scoring, so on and so forth. The issue is that there's just no offensive continuity for the Clips, and they were down much, much more than the final score might indicate in that game with the Spurs. Some late-game fluff points made it look like a reasonable score, but the Clippers were just wildly overmatched. And I hate to say that I like the so-called square side, but I just can't get behind the Clippers. The Thunder were a very, very good road team last year, and going against the Clippers isn't scaring anyone. Plus, with the Clippers missing shots, open or defended, opponents can get out and run and get those easy buckets. Word also is that Kevin Durant has taken a defensive leadership role now, to go along with his offensive prowess. He took responsibility for poor defense in their home loss to Utah, and I expect the intensity to pick up. Lean to the road THUNDER and to the UNDER, since, really, the Clippers can't score.

Los Angeles Lakers (-6) @ Sacramento Kings with a total of 210;
First thing that jumps out about this game is that this total is just stratospheric. That, right off the bat, tells me that Sacramento is going to get running, and the Lakers, on the second night of a back-to-back, are going to be game for some streetball for at least the first 36 minutes, maybe as many as the first 40. That's a good thing for Sacramento, since the Kings are a team that cannot compete with the Lakers in a half-court, playoff-style game, but CAN compete when Tyreke Evans can get out and run, and guys like Omri Casspi, Beno Udrih, and Carl Landry can get some quicker looks, either in transition, or in the early parts of the shot clock. I like that the Lakers are coming off what should be a solid game with Memphis, and I also like that Sacramento loves their 2 home games with the Lakers. Arco is packed for these showdowns, and the hatred for LA definitely powers the team. The days of the cowbells might be behind us, and the Lakers are still one of the best in the League while Sacramento has dropped off, but make no mistake, the Lakers are not 11 points better than Sacramento on a neutral court, and on top of that, there should be more than 3 points added for Sacramento's home court edge in games with LA. Lean to SACRAMENTO and to the OVER.

Wednesday NBA Tips
By Kevin Rogers

The NBA season will start getting more recognition with the World Series now done with as 12 games take place on Wednesday. Four games in the competitive Western Conference catch our eye, including a playoff rematch in Phoenix between the Spurs and Suns. We'll start with a Southwest Division battle with a surprising undefeated team taking on a winless club in Houston.

Hornets at Rockets - 8:30 PM EST

Both these squads missed the playoffs last season, but each division rival tries to turn the corner this season. New Orleans has busted out with a 3-0 record, including three victories over teams that made the postseason. Houston, meanwhile, is 0-3 with a pair of close road losses to the Lakers and Warriors.

The Rockets fell in their home opener to the Nuggets, 107-94, as Houston couldn't cash as five-point favorites. Rick Adelman's team held Denver to 39% shooting from the floor, but the Nuggets nailed 10 three-pointers, including five from newly acquired Al Harrington. The Rockets lost three of four meetings to the Hornets last season, as the two teams split a pair of games at the Toyota Center.

New Orleans heard plenty of chirping from disgruntled point guard Chris Paul during the summer, but that hasn't affected the Hornets' play so far this season. New coach Monty Williams has led the Hornets to a 3-0 start, as New Orleans most recently knocked off Denver and San Antonio. The key has been defense with the Hornets holding all three opponents to 95 points or less, resulting in three 'unders.'

Mavericks at Nuggets - 9:05 PM EST

Dallas and Denver will play twice over the next four days as the Nuggets come off three days of rest. The Mavs have limited two opponents to 86 points or less, while the most points given up in three games was the 91-spot in a loss to the Grizzlies. Denver still has things going in spite of offseason controversy from Carmelo Anthony as the Nuggets are 2-1 through the first week.

The Nuggets put up a strong second-half effort in Saturday's underdog victory at Houston, following a late meltdown at New Orleans the night before in a six-point defeat. Denver has seen inflated total numbers so far and has helped 'under' players by cashing in three straight games. The 206 opener is the lowest total through four games for the Nuggets after seeing 209 ½ against Utah, 208 ½ at New Orleans, and 216 at Houston.

The Mavericks held the anemic Clippers' offense to just 36 second-half points in Sunday's 99-83 victory, easily covering as 5 ½-point 'chalk.' All three Dallas opponents have shot 40% of worse from the floor, while the Clippers and Bobcats are in the bottom 10 of the league in field-goal percentage. Dallas grabbed two of three meetings from Denver last season, including a 104-96 win at the Pepsi Center as 5 ½-point road 'dogs in late December.

Spurs at Suns - 10:05 PM EST

Phoenix swept San Antonio out of the second round of the playoffs back in May, as the Suns look to even their mark at 2-2. The Spurs will be looking to avenge that sweep as San Antonio finishes up its mini two-game road trip following Monday's victory over the Clippers.

San Antonio has played two low-scoring games after an up-and-down 122-109 home victory over Indiana. The Spurs are getting plenty of other unheralded players in the game past the big three of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker. Former Towson standout Gary Neal scored 16 points off the bench in the win over the Clippers, while James Anderson and George Hill combined for 26 points against Indiana.

The Suns have had probably the most difficult schedule out of the gate, losing to the Lakers and Blazers, while beating the Jazz. Phoenix hit its first 'over' against the Champs in a 114-106 loss, one night after allowing just 94 points in a 16-point victory at Utah. The Suns have won each of the last four meetings at home, while covering each of the last seven matchups in this series.

Lakers at Kings - 10:35 PM EST

Los Angeles heads up I-5 to Northern California to battle Sacramento as these two Pacific Division teams are riding a hot start. It was expected that the Lakers would come out of the gate on fire, but few thought the Kings would be 3-1 through four games.

Sacramento rallied from a 17-point deficit to beat Toronto in its home opener on Monday, 111-108, the third time the Kings have eclipsed the 107-point plateau. Paul Westphal's team has easily hit the 'over' in all four games, while eight of the last nine meetings against the Lakers have cashed the 'over.'

The reigning champs have clicked on the offensive side thanks to some big shots from offseason additions Steve Blake and Matt Barnes, helping out an already stable Lakers' offensive attack. Los Angeles has averaged 111 ppg to begin the season, while out-rebounding both Phoenix and Golden State. The Lakers are 9-1 the last 10 meetings, as L.A. has won and covered the past three matchups at Arco Arena.

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NBA Betting Preview: Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics
By Jeff Mattingly

Milwaukee is coming off a disappointing effort versus the Portland Trail Blazers at home last night, dropping the contest 90-76 mainly due to being outscored 26-17 in the third period. The inability of having the entire lineup together during the preseason has really affected the team in the early going. “It was tough not having everybody healthy in training camp,” said assistant coach Jim Boylan. “Just trying to integrate everybody into our team and figuring out the rotations is tough.” The Bucks had eight of their shots blocked in the contest and were led by newcomer Corey Maggette’s 16 points. The team is 15-5-2 ATS in its last 22 games versus the NBA Atlantic Division.

The Bucks will be relying heavily on point guard Brandon Jennings in matching up with the Celtics playmaker Rajon Rondo tonight. Jennings managed just eight points on 2 of 7 shooting last night after getting his first career triple-double on Saturday versus Charlotte. Head coach Scott Skiles hasn’t been happy with the offensive production of his squad thus far in 2010-11. “It’s nowhere near where it needs to be,” Skiles said. “We still have guys who don’t know what we’re trying to do and our approach isn’t where it needs to be.” One player that may need to step up even further is center Andrew Bogut, who totaled 50 points and 31 rebounds in two meetings versus Boston last year.

Boston heads home after a solid 109-86 win in Detroit on Tuesday night and Rondo continues to amaze his teammates with his recent play. “He’s unbelievable. He played the perfect floor game,” forward Paul Pierce commented. “He had 17 assists and no turnovers. You can’t get any better than that.” The former Kentucky Wildcats guard could enjoy yet another banner night, as he averaged 16.8 points and 11.0 assists in four meetings with the Bucks last year. The Celtics and Bucks split the four regular season meetings last year, with each team winning a game on the others floor. Boston is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 home games.

The Celtics have plenty of veteran scorers on the squad and Pierce currently leads the group by averaging 19.0 points per game. Head coach Doc Rivers is wanting his “big trio” to start being more selfish on the offensive end. “We’re trying to get the three scorers to be more aggressive offensively,” he commented. “Half of our turnovers, we were turning over when we had a layup but threw the ball to someone else.” Forward Kevin Garnett took it to the Pistons smallish frontcourt last night, scoring a game-high 22 points on 9-for-12 shooting.

Bettors will certainly be interested in backing the Bucks due to their 5-1-1 ATS mark in the last seven meetings, while the Celtics are 7-3 ATS with zero days rest.

Tips and Trends

San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns

SPURS: (-1.5, O/U 208.5) This regular season game means everything to San Antonio, as the last time they faced Phoenix they were swept out of the playoffs. The Spurs are 2-1 SU this season, and are focused more than ever of having success in the regular season. San Antonio is 2-1 both SU and ATS to start the season, and will be playing their 2nd road game of the season tonight. G Manu Ginobli currently leads the team in scoring this year, averaging 19.7 PPG this season. PG Tony Parker is averaging 17.3 PPG and 7.3 APG this season, appearing as healthy as he's been in years. The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against a team with a winning percentage below .400%. San Antonio is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against a team with a losing SU record. The Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against the NBA Pacific.

Spurs are 2-8 ATS last 10 games as a road favorite up to 4.5 points.
Under is 20-6 last 26 road games against a team with a losing home record.

Key Injuries - G George Hill (shoulder) is questionable.

Projected Score: 109 (OVER-Total of the Day)

SUNS: Phoenix is 1-2 both SU and ATS to start the season. Expectations are quite low for a team that went so deep into the playoffs last season. The departure of F Amar'e Stoudemire and the words from PG Steve Nash have left many feeling it's time to rebuild in Phoenix. Even at 1-2 SU this year, one must realize the difficult schedule the Suns have faced. Phoenix has faced Portland, Utah, and the Lakers to start the season. The Suns will be playing yet another game as the listed underdog, as they've been in that role each game this season. G Jason Richardson leads the team in scoring this year, averaging 18.3 PPG. F Grant Hill is averaging 11.3 PPG and 5.3 RPG for the Suns this year. The Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600%. The Suns are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU loss. Phoenix is 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games against the NBA Southwest. The Suns are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games playing on 3 or more days rest.

Suns are 9-1 ATS last 10 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 4-1 last 5 games as a home underdog.

Key Injuries - F Josh Childress (hip) is probable.

Projected Score: 105