Wednesday's Best NBA Bets
Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors
Some teams fail to show up on the road. The Wizards are in a totally different zip code.
Washington is a respectable 5-3 at home, but an abysmal 0-8 on the road, including losses to Detroit and New York. The problem for the Wizards is that they always seem to leave their jumpers at home. The team is averaging a pathetic 93.5 points per game in opponents gyms.
"All it takes is one game, on the road to win, and from there, you just get momentum. All it's going to take is just one game to get your confidence," Wizards guard Gilbert Arenas said. "It comes with youth. Inexperienced players, getting a chance to play when they really haven't had a chance to develop any skill. But that's what happens when you're a rebuilding team."
Meantime, Toronto has won three of its past four home games, including wins over Boston and Houston. In the victories, the Raptors are averaging more than 104 points per game.
Canada and the Raptors should have a chilly reception for the Wizards.
Pick: Toronto
Orlando Magic at Chicago Bulls
Who would have thought that the Bulls would buy into the concept of better team defense? But they team is, and the results have put the squad atop the Central Division.
Chicago is giving up just 98.5 points per game and is allowing opponents to average a miniscule 43.7 percent from the floor. Opponents are shooting 36 percent from beyond the arc because of the team’s defensive rotations leaving the wings open, but most foes are hesitant to jack enough triples to make them pay.
The results of the new commitment to defense has been easy transition buckets, allowing the team to craft a top-10 offense (101.6 points per game, 46.2 field goal pct), without having a true jump shooter outside of Kyle Korver.
"The only thing he says is about pick and roll," Chicago star guard Derrick Rose said of Coach Tom Thibodeau's approach. "He wants me to attack. Other than that, I could take a bad shot, do whatever, he will not say it's a bad shot. But if I don't help on defense, he'll curse the whole team out, me out, make me feel bad. But offensively, he's not worried about that, defensively, that's where he keys in at."
That’s not good news for the Magic, which love to slow teams down and force them to penetrate against elite shot blocker Dwight Howard. The Bulls should get enough easy baskets to pull out a tough win.
Pick: Chicago
NBA betting slate finds Bobcats at Hornets
By: Barry Daniels
The Charlotte Bobcats might be missing their top two scorers when they travel to New Orleans for a Wednesday night matchup against the Hornets.
Starting forward Gerald Wallace, who leads the team in rebounding and is second in scoring, is “questionable” with shoulder injury. Leading scorer Stephen Jackson was tossed out of the club's last game and could be facing a suspension.
Wallace, an all-star last season, was hurt while getting fouled on a drive to the basket as Charlotte trailed by two points with 7.1 seconds left in their last game against the Milwaukee Bucks. Wallace couldn't continue, and the Bucks chose Kwame Brown to come off the bench and take the foul shots. He missed the first attempt to preserve Milwaukee's lead.
The Bobcats eventually suffered a 104-101 setback, but did manage to cover as 3 ½-point road underdogs. The loss was Charlotte’s third in the last four games and lowered the club’s record to 6-11. However, the Bobcats did improve to 8-7-2 against the NBA spread.
The combined 205 points sailed well above the 182 ½-point closing total. That enabled the ‘over’ to improve to 6-3 in the Bobcats’ first nine road encounters and 10-7 in their first 17 overall outings.
The Bobcats played most of the game without Jackson (18.1 PPG), who was tossed out of the contest for arguing with referee Eli Roe with 7:31 remaining in the first quarter.
Larry Brown’s Bobcats are 23rd offensively (96.6 PPG) and 11th defensively (97.5 PPG). They are fifth in field goal percentage (47.2 percent) and first in defensive rebounding (37.1 per game).
New Orleans is off Monday's 95-89 setback at Oklahoma City as 3 ½-point road underdogs. The loss and non-cover lowered the club's ledger to 12-5 SU and 9-7-1 ATS. However, the Hornets are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 outings after starting the season by covering their first five matches. They have also dropped four of their last five after starting the season with a sparkling 11-1 SU ledger.
The combined 184 points slithered below the 200 ½-point closing total, leaving the 'under' 2-7-1 in the Hornets' last 10 encounters. New Orleans has failed to reach triple-digits in eight of those last 10 contests.
The scoring slump has left the Hornets a dismal 26th in the league offensively, averaging just 96.1 points per game. However, they are third in the league from beyond the three-point line by shooting 38.2 percent. The Hornets are also a poor 24th in rebounding, hauling down just 40.3 boards per contest.
Luckily, the squad's defense has more than picked up the slack. The Hornets own the league's top-rated defense, allowing just 92.4 points per game. They have not allowed more than 100 points in 15 of their first 17 games and have yielded less than 90 points on six occasions.
David West led the Hornets in Monday's loss with 20 points and seven rebounds, while point guard Chris Paul added 17 points and 14 assists. Emeka Okafor contributed 13 points and 11 rebounds.
Returning home will be a good thing for the Hornets, as they are 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS in their first eight home encounters. The 'over' has also cashed in their last four home contests.
The Hornets are a sizzling 10-2 ATS in the last 12 series matchups against the Bobcats, including 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in New Orleans. The 'over' is 8-2 in the last 10 overall meetings.
The Hornets will head back to Charlotte for a Friday contest against the New Jersey Nets, while New Orleans will stay home for a Friday tussle with the New York Knicks.
NBA RoundUp for 12/1
by Dan Bebe
Memphis Grizzlies @ Atlanta Hawks with a total of N/A
I'm not 100% positive why this particular line is off, since I don't really believe the domestic issues surrounding Hamed Haddadi and his lady are keeping this one off the board. The best info I can find is that Joe Johnson is day-to-day, so kudos to the oddsmakers for being giant vaginas with this one. In any event, I think we can fairly well predict how this game is going to go based on how Memphis handles the Lakers on Tuesday night. That's the huge home game, and this is the potential letdown road game. Memphis has been playing awfully bad away from home, as evidenced by their ugly loss in Cleveland over the weekend. Will playing a better team wake them up, or will Atlanta keep rolling, looking very strong since a players-only meeting held a little less than a week ago. Without a line, and without Joe Johnson, the Hawks change a bit, but Al Horford would become a bigger focal point, and Jamal Crawford can certainly step in and score 25 in a pinch. I feel like, to some degree, the Hawks are just like the Grizzlies, but better at almost every position. Lean to ATLANTA and the UNDER.
Washington Wizards @ Toronto Raptors with a total of N/A
At least with this one, we can put the blame on John Wall's legs. The youngster has run into some early-season, and early-career injury issues, though so far, none seem all that serious. The nagging problems, though, definitely cut into his explosiveness, and Washington has been forced to shut him down for a few games here and there to make sure that when he plays, he's right. In the meantime, Gilbert Arenas has actually done a decent job running the team, and some young big men (Blatche, McGee) look like nice pieces, if they can get healthy, too. And that's really the issue here. Both of these teams have some bruises, but with Wall and McGee out, that certainly sets Washington back a bit more than Toronto's loss of Reggie Evans. Prior to a weak performance against the Hawks, the Raptors had actually started to look borderline functional, and though rebounding is going to require a team-wide bump in effort, Toronto is probably the better team right now, and we'll take a peek when this line comes out. The lack of Wall might push the spread up to 5, though, and that might be too much. Microscopic lean to TORONTO if the spread is low, and to the OVER.
Oklahoma City Thunder (-5) @ New Jersey Nets with a total of 197.5
Starting with a pure energy breakdown, you have to think the Thunder should have the slight edge. The Nets are coming off a game last night in New York against an up-tempo opponent, so they're not, presumably, going to be returning off a slower game where they can keep the legs a little fresher. Of course, the Nets have actually been playing decent basketball of late, and covered in all 4 of their back-to-back spots in the month of November, even if barely in a few of them. But saying "barely" actually proves a point that Jersey doesn't necessarily need the 2-point bump from playing in a fatigue spot. It is interesting to note, though, that all 4 of those previous ATS wins came on the road, and only 1 of the 4 was a SU win. Would this line really be at 3 if Jersey hadn't played the previous night? On Oklahoma City's side, they're coming off a dominant defensive final quarter against the Hornets, and this game starts a stretch of 5 road games out of 6 total. It isn't really a look-ahead or letdown spot, in my opinion, so I don't see any strong indicators that we should stay away from either side. This one, ultimately, comes down to whether you think Jersey will tire out or the 2 points are a bonus line value. I lean just slightly to the NETS until they show otherwise, and the UNDER, if the Thunder are truly starting to consider defense.
Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat (-11) with a total of 192
It's not necessarily a look-ahead spot for the Heat, but it sure seems like one for LeBron. The King returns to Cleveland tomorrow night on TNT, and as a warm-up, gets to pick on Detroit's complete lack of interior defense. Will he be focused and angry, or will he float around on the perimeter and pop 15 jump shots with his head in the clouds? Detroit in the midst of a brutal 3-game stretch that sees them play Orlando on Tuesday, Miami tonight, and then Orlando again on Friday. Going 1-2 in that stretch has to be Detroit's goal. Thus, my advice would be to watch how Detroit's game with Orlando goes on Tuesday night. If they get pummeled, I might consider backing them here in some sort of bounceback spot. If they just look lethargic and disinterested, I would be fearful that Detroit would care any more in this one. On Miami's side, they are coming off a strong defensive game against the hapless Wizards, and I can't quite decide if I think that is going to be a jumping off point for them, or if beating up on a weak team is giving them a false sense of satisfaction. How will the players-only meeting's effect dwindle over time. WAIT AND SEE on the side, and consider the UNDER.
Portland Trailblazers @ Boston Celtics with a total of N/A
This just isn't right. We know exactly who is and is not hurt on both teams, so just put out a damn line! Ah, the frustration is starting to build, and we're only in early December. Another line-less breakdown...the Blazers and Celtics are both playing on back-to-back days, and, to me, that's about all you need to know for this game. Portland is coming off a game in Jersey, and Boston is returning home off a revenge game in Cleveland. The Blazers have been one of the League's better teams at dealing with fatigue spots over the last year and change, and Boston has been one of the League's poorer. Why overcomplicate things? Of course, the one huge drawback to taking a shot with the Blazers in a game that, I imagine, will feature a Boston line of somewhere in the 4-5 range, is that Portland has not been playing well. Still, I think they have the pride and the depth to at least keep this game close, so, without a line, I give the slight nod to the BLAZERS, and thanks to both teams playing slower when slightly tired, the UNDER, as well.
Orlando Magic @ Chicago Bulls with a total of N/A
Word on the street is that Carlos Boozer is actually getting closer to returning, though I doubt he makes an appearance in this one. Taj Gibson is banged up, Derrick Rose's neck is sore, Vince Carter is expected to play for the Magic, and yet again, we have no line. The Bulls come into this one feeling confident about a hugely successful 4-3 circus trip through some of the toughest cities in the Western Conference. The 3 losses came in San Antonio, in Denver, and to the Lakers in LA, while Chicago collected wins over Houston, Dallas, Phoenix and Sacramento, those last two in dramatic comebacks. And, after a 7-game, 2-week road trip, Chicago comes home for the first time and has multiple days off to prepare for Orlando. To the naked eye, that might look like Chicago is in a good spot to get ready, but to me, I believe this is the perfect sluggish letdown game for the Bulls. They got what they wanted on the road trip, and the next game is back out on the road against Boston, so other than crowd noise, this home game probably feels a little like still being on the road, except with a bunch of outside responsibilities. Orlando is playing the second half of a back-to-back, so thats's something to consider, and Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau certainly has a few recipes to throw at the Magic, but in a close game, I think Orlando prevails. Lean to the MAGIC and the UNDER.
Charlotte Bobcats @ New Orleans Hornets with a total of N/A
Seven games profiled so far, and 5 have been without lines. This is annoying, and a little boring. I'll try to keep it interesting. Stephen Jackson is a maniac! There we go, there's some spice. He is likely suspended for this game following a verbal explosion at an official in the Bobcats' last game. He was ejected from that one, and really, it seemed like he had been one bad call away from losing it all season long. Is it because the Bobcats aren't very good this year? Maybe. Is it because his somewhat slow-developing offense just isn't clicking? Also a possibility. No matter how you look at it, he's out, and the line will reflect that. The Bobcats did have 3 days off prior to this game, though, so if nothing else, they should be rested. New Orleans, meanwhile, seems to be coming back to Earth a little bit. They got out to a crazy-hot start, and now have lost 4 of their last 5 games. They still have Chris Paul, which means they're not going to get blown out very often, but they do seem to be slowing a tad on offense, in particular. What I'm not sure of, though, is whether other teams are adjusting, or whether the Hornets are just going cold. That, to me, makes this game hard to bet. Based on what I expect will be a line slightly too high, I'm expecting a lean to CHARLOTTE, but it's purely a numbers thing, and also the UNDER.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Dallas Mavericks (-11) with a total of 203.5
Don't look now, but the Dallas Mavericks have covered 2 straight home games. I suppose we could argue that one was against the overrated Heat, and the other was against a completely exhausted Houston Rockets team, but a cover is a cover, and they have 2 in a row. The Rockets' lack of depth is a story for another paragraph. This game, though, strikes me as Dallas's one potential letdown spot in a long stretch. Before today, they had played in Oklahoma, in San Antonio, at home against the Heat, at home against the division rival Rockets, and afterwards, Dallas heads up to Utah. What is the motivation to keep blowing out teams like Minnesota? Dallas is rolling, but this big of a number is too much for me to buy. Minnesota, meanwhile, just keeps hanging tough, but finding ways to lose. They lost in Oklahoma after leading for large portions of that game, then lost at home to the Spurs in bonus time. Golden State delivered a good punch to the Wolves' teeth, but this team has the rebounding ability to stay in most games. I'm not sure about defense, though, and making scoring easy for the Mavericks is a bad idea. Gun to my head, I take the WOLVES and the UNDER, but, I dunno...
Los Angeles Lakers (-6) @ Houston Rockets with a total of 208
This is a hefty price on LA, considering they played last night in Memphis. I mean, I know Houston stinks, but they do like to play the Lakers tough, and for whatever reason, guys like Chase Budinger seem to step up in games like these. Also, when you consider that the Lakers were just 8 point home favorites to the Rockets back on opening night, and are now 6-point favorites on the road on the second half of a back-to-back, that's a 6-point power ranking adjustment. My main concern is that road games seem to be the situations that can sometimes wake up the Lakers, and they always have the ability to put the clamps on, and beat anyone by 25. Still, this line is claiming the Lakers are 11 points better than Houston on a neutral site, and I just can't let that fly. Plus, Houston has actually won 2 straight home games, so maybe there are some signs of life, there? I sure would hope so, given I lean to the ROCKETS and just barely UNDER.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Denver Nuggets with a total of N/A
This line could be off for any number of reasons. The Bucks are likely without Andrew Bogut yet again, and Corey Maggette and Drew Gooden remain questionable. The Nuggets might be without Carmelo Anthony, who apparently got his paws on the same diarrhea soup that got Tim Duncan a couple weeks back. Delightful. In any case, J.R. Smith came alive in the Nuggets last game, so at least we know what Denver would have to do if Melo decided to disappear from the city forever. Believe it or not, I actually kind of like the Nuggets more without Carmelo, at least in the short term. He's an unbelievable talent, and he's absolutely the guy you want on your team when you need to go and get a bucket, but in the normal half-court offense, he's a ball-stopper. I haven't seen much passing from Melo, and, I might argue, a little less lane-driving, too. His assist numbers don't bear that out, but his 2 fewer free throw attempts per game certainly do. I think his absence for a couple nights might actually force the Nuggets to use some penetration and ball-movement (that sounded bad) to get shots, and might help them when he returns. The Bucks are reeling right now, but Denver has a way of letting teams hang around. If this line is huge, stay away. If it seems low, I might still look at the public home team. Eency, weency lean to DENVER and the UNDER, since let's face it, Milwaukee can't score right now.
Indiana Pacers @ Utah Jazz (-8) with a total of 194
This game falls into that category of plays where the visiting team has to travel late into the night, landing in altitude, and then try to get up and play the Jazz the next day. And Utah knows it. I might argue the Jazz, because of their unrelenting nature, probably do a better job than the Nuggets at exploiting the fatigue of the opposition. Denver used to be that team, since they could run you out of the building, but the Nuggets just run isolation plays now. Utah, meanwhile, has added a big man in Al Jefferson, and Paul Millsap as a stocky, undersized power forward is a scary body for tired teams to contend with, too. Indiana's recent success has come because of their increased effort on the defensive end. With tired legs, you're not going to outshoot the Jazz. Indiana's only hope of winning or covering this game is to try to turn it into a slugfest, with each team trading body blows, since, at least in that type of contest, 8 points becomes tougher to get. I just don't think Indiana is going to have the energy to do it. Utah is putting up monster offensive numbers and defending, winning their last 6 straight games by an average of almost 13 points. Utah is very, very good right now, and I wouldn't step in front of that freight train. I like the JAZZ and I barely like the OVER.
San Antonio Spurs (-7) @ Los Angeles Clippers with a total of 204
Wow, this line is high as hell. I mean, I know the Clippers are terrible, but the Spurs are on the second half of a back-to-back that started in Golden State, and this line is suggesting the Spurs are 12-point neutral court favorites here. San Antonio is a great basketball team that has completely owned the Clippers this decade, but we can find value in numbers, and this one looks screwy to me. Looking at the previous two meetings this year, we find that the Spurs were 8-point favorites here in LA in the first, and 13-point favorites at home in the second. However, the Clippers were the team playing in back-to-back spots in those two games, and the Spurs were rested for both. Thus, the Spurs were ranked as a 9-point neutral court favorite in the first game, and an 8-point neutral court favorite in the second. And now, all of a sudden, they're a 12-point neutral court favorite? Neither team has really changed much since the last meeting - the Spurs are still winning, the Clippers are still getting production from Blake Griffin and Eric Gordon and no one else. Chris Kaman is due back soon, but not yet, so what changed? Regardless, if the books are going to give us 3-4 points of line value just from doing some simple arithmetic, I lean CLIPPERS and the OVER.
NBA Betting Preview Washington at Toronto
By: Jeff Mattingly
Washington dropped a 104-95 loss against the Miami Heat in South Beach on Monday night and played mostly with a seven-man rotation due to injuries. “It got to the point late where we didn’t have enough runs left in us,” head coach Flip Saunders commented. The Wizards may be without rookie point guard John Wall for a third consecutive game, while being without fellow starter Al Thornton for a fourth contest. Life on the road will not make things easier, as the team has dropped all eight games away from the nation’s capital, with five coming by double-digits. The team is 3-11 overall versus the Eastern Conference and that includes the squad’s eight road defeats. Washington is 7-9 ATS this season and 1-4 ATS versus Atlantic division opponents.
The Wizards will be facing the Raptors for the second time this year, capturing the first contest by a 109-94 score at the Verizon Center on November 16th. Washington had three players score 20 or more points led by forward Andray Blatche, who scored 22 points to go along with seven rebounds and five assists. Guard Gilbert Arenas also pitched in with 20 points in the contest and has averaged 23.1 points in 21 career games versus the Raptors.
Toronto is set to play its second game of a four-game home stand on Wednesday night and is coming off a disappointing 96-78 home defeat to the Atlanta Hawks. The Raptors were held to their lowest point total of the season in the contest, dropping their record to 1-6 when failing to score at least 100 points. Part of the problem is the struggles of leading scorer Andrea Bargnani, who has scored just 25 points over the past two games, shooting 10 of 30 from the field. One area that has been steady throughout is points coming off the fast-break, as the team ranks first in the NBA, averaging 19.5 per contest. Toronto is 9-7 ATS on the season.
The Raptors may rely on their bench to help spur the team to victory over the injury-depleted Wizards, especially with the unit outscoring opponents in six consecutive games by a +100 margin. Toronto ranks fourth in the NBA in bench scoring at 39.3 points per contest and second in field goal percentage. Someone from the second unit will need to step on the glass with the loss of Reggie Evans to a broken foot, as he was among the league leaders with 12.1 rebounds per game.
Bettors may be interested in laying the Wizards due to their 8-18 ATS mark versus the Eastern Conference, while the Raptors are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 home games.