NBA News and Notes Wednesday 12/22

NBA Odds Preview: Healthier Nuggets visit Spurs
By: Michael Robinson

The Denver Nuggets could be in line for major reinforcements when they visit the red-hot San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday night.

Denver (16-10 straight-up, 8-16-2 against the spread) is expected to get back point guard Chauncey Billups (wrist), power forward Kenyon Martin (knee) and backup center Chris Andersen (back).

Martin has been out the entire year, while Andersen has been sidelined since Dec. 3 and played just five games this season. Billups has missed the last three games, including a 113-112 home loss to San Antonio last Thursday.

San Antonio’s Manu Ginobili had the go-ahead bucket with 4.2 seconds left and then drew an offensive foul on Carmelo Anthony to secure the win. Denver backup point guard Ty Lawson had 15 points and seven assists, but he’ll go back to the bench with Billups’ return, despite playing well (18 PPG, 7.3 APG) in his absence.

The Nuggets did rebound with a 115-113 home win over Minnesota on Saturday, failing to ‘cover’ the 10 ½-point spread. They’re 2-7 ATS in their last nine games. The 128 combined points scored went just ‘over’ the huge 227 point total. The ‘over’ is 4-0-1 in Denver’s last five games.

Coach George Karl is happy to be getting healthier, but there’s still a big problem with Anthony. The 26-year-old superstar is on the trading block after making it clear he plans to leave the team as a free agent at year’s end.

Anthony leads the Nuggets in scoring at 24 PPG despite being banged up (elbow, thumb). They’re third in the league in scoring (107.3 PPG), but give almost all of it back on the defensive end (105.1 PPG, ranked 25th).

Getting defensive minded players back in Martin and Andersen will help. Martin can also provide veteran leadership for a squad in turmoil due to the Anthony situation.

The Nuggets have badly struggled on the road all season at 4-8 SU and 4-7-1 ATS. They’re well rested, but are only 1-3 ATS on three days rest or more. Those are all bad omens for Wednesday.

The Spurs (24-3 SU) continue to shock the NBA with the league’s best record. That wasn’t supposed to happen with a team expected to decline with aging stars like Ginobili (33) and Tim Duncan (34).

San Antonio has reinvented itself with a faster-paced offense averaging 106.8 PPG. That’s significantly higher than last year (101.4 PPG). The defense is allowing a respectable 97.7 PPG (ranked 15th).

The Spurs have a nine-game winning streak, last beating Phoenix 118-110 at home on Monday as 10 ½-point ‘chalk.’ They’re 0-3 ATS in their last three home games (9-8 ATS at home this season). The ‘over’ is 3-0 in the last three games and 16-11 on the season.

Guard George Hill (11.3 PPG) missed the last two games with a toe injury and has a good chance to miss the Denver game as well. Gary Neal took advantage of more minutes against Phoenix with 22 points.

Neal was an unknown talent playing in the Spanish League last year. Spurs management does a great job with player personnel, a big reason for their continued success. Coach Gregg Popovich has also done a great job keeping the starters’ minutes down, so there’s no reason fatigue should set in any time soon.

Denver won and ‘covered’ both games in San Antonio last year. The road team and underdog are on an incredible roll in this series at 9-0 ATS each. The ‘under’ went 4-0 last year, although the meeting this year went ‘over’ the 211 ½-point total.

Tip-off from the AT&T Center is at 5:30 p.m. (PT) and will be broadcast locally.

NBA RoundUp for 12/22
by Dan Bebe

Detroit Pistons @ Toronto Raptors with a total of N/A
The Pistons are damn difficult to figure out, these days. They beat the pants off Atlanta, lose to the Clippers, beat the Hornets, and prior to all that, they had allowed these very Raptors to shoot 63% in a crazy comeback effort. Who are the Pistons? Now, on the road, in a bit of a revenge spot, the Pistons are looking to string together a pair of wins for the first time since early November. And they're looking to do so without Rip Hamilton, who seems to be done with Detroit. He might play, I suppose, but after being benched in favor of Ben Gordon, Rip threw a temper tantrum, sat out a game with an "upset tummy," and now would seem to be chomping at the bit to get traded. I would actually prefer he NOT play, if I'm backing Detroit. He's not playing hard, and Detroit desperately needs all 5 guys on the floor to give a crap if they're going to win. With this game being each team's final contest before the Christmas Break, the letdown factor is a wash. Thus, we're left with momentum and revenge, and I might argue that those both point to the Pistons. Let's wait and see if we can snag a nice number (since Toronto was considered 1 point Detroit's superior a couple weeks back), and then reassess. Early lean to DETROIT and the UNDER, though the line will provide some additional info.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks (-11) with a total of 191
This is a large number for Atlanta to cover, considering how stagnant that offense has looked, lately. I will give credit, though, to Atlanta's defense, which seems to have improved between seasons. Now, if they could get some activity in that offense, they could take another step. As it stands, Atlanta has held more teams under 40% shooting this month (4) than over 50% (3), and that's a nice sign. Cleveland should be no different. The Cavs have only cracked the 43% mark once all December, so we can basically look for them to put up another 40% performance. The question is whether Atlanta can hang 100 points on the board. I'm inclined to think they won't. Atlanta just isn't pushing the tempo at all, and while Cleveland sometimes tries to, they seem to settle back into a half-court set all too often. I happen to think that, given the lack of motivational factors, and with Atlanta trying to get Joe Johnson back in the swing of things, this side is pretty close to accurate. Perhaps a microscopic lean to ATLANTA to cover by about 1.5 points. The total is darn near perfect, too, though I lean just a hair to the UNDER.

Chicago Bulls (-2) @ Washington Wizards with a total of 194
We'll know a bit more about this game once we see how Chicago handles Philadelphia on Tuesday evening, but my initial feeling is that Chicago isn't the same team without Joakim Noah, and this ultra-short line is doing nothing to sway that sensation. Washington, as we've seen, is sneaky-solid at home, and I'm inclined to think they'll make a game of it with the Bulls. That number 2 is scary, though, since Washington isn't left with much of a window to lose and cover. Washington was a 10.5-point underdog when they played in Chicago earlier this year, but now, without Arenas and without Wall, even the loss of Joakim Noah would have to still leave Chicago as the slight power ranking edge. Plus, the Bulls added Boozer since that time. Nothing about this line adds up, and when that's the case, it's time to open up the Marco D'Angelo book of tricks and "go contrarian" with the ugly choice. Lean to WASHINGTON on the side (Chicago's game with Philly pending), and the OVER.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics (-10) with a total of 191
Considering the line when Boston visited Philadelphia 2 weeks ago, this -10 is absolutely astounding! Let's knock out the situational stuff quickly, because I want to focus on the line math. Yes, this is a revenge game for Philadelphia. The Sixers dropped a heartbreaker to the Celtics, 102-101, obviously covering that game, but losing a game they felt they could have won. Boston might, though it's not for sure, be looking ahead just a tad to the Christmas Day game with the Orlando Magic. And finally, Philadelphia is on back-to-back from a game in Chicago, the results of which may impact how we approach this one. Now, the line: when Boston traveled to Philadelphia on December 9, it was on the heels of a back-to-back with the Denver Nuggets, in Boston, and the C's were a 5 point road favorite. Some quick arithmetic (venue, b2b adjustment) tells us that oddsmakers had Boston as a 10-point neutral court favorite. Now, 2 weeks later, Philadelphia is on a b2b, Boston is at home, and the line is only at 10. That's a full 5-point power ranking swing, and that's also insane. Believe it or not, this line might actually be a value on Boston. Taking 10 points with the Sixers seems like a gift right now, but digging deep reveals that the line has moved a ton, and the value might not be quite what it appears. NO LEAN on the side, and total lean UNDER.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ New York Knicks (Pk) with a total of 218
I sure hope this one isn't decided at the free throw line, because the game might never end. Two teams that can seriously make foul shots, and can both really put up some offensive numbers. The Thunder are not playing the world's finest team defense, and on a back-to-back spot (off a game in Charlotte last night), I would have to believe that the first thing to do is going to be the defensive effort. When you're tired, it's very easy to get caught up in the Knicks' style of play, up and down the court, trying to out-gun the opponent, and for that reason, I think this line is telling us that the tempo is going to be quite high. The Thunder are the better team on a neutral setting, no question, but when you throw together that the Knicks have had 3 days to regroup after a tough span that saw them lose games to Boston and Miami (and then a letdown loss in Cleveland), this one gets much closer. The Thunder have also played a handful of games with a total up in the 215 range, and those have all gone Over the mark. What does that tell us? Oklahoma isn't going to try to slow things down, people are going to get to the foul line and stop the clock, and buckets will be plentiful. Lean to the KNICKS and the OVER.

New Jersey Nets @ New Orleans Hornets (-9) with a total of 182
This game has all the makings of a real ugly-fest. Neither team can score, reliably, and just when it seemed like the Hornets were starting to build a little momentum with a big win over Utah, the Hornets went on the road and laid a pair of eggs. I wonder if this isn't that game where two teams that generally fail on offense suddenly find a rhythm and shoot 50%? In any case, New Orleans should win this game, but covering 9 isn't going to be easy. The Nets are on the second half of a back-to-back that started last night in Memphis, so they'll be a little fatigued, but New Jersey's slow, defensive style of play has translated into success in spots such as this one. And considering that this line would be at 7 without the b2b adjustment, that just shows how little respect the Hornets are getting lately, and probably don't deserve much more. I am about 95% of the way to passing on this clunker, especially since, if ever there was a team for Jersey to pack it in and start thinking about that 5 day layoff, this would be it. Too many competing angles. If I had to force a lean, since I know you guys love forced leans, it'd be to JERSEY, but tread lightly. I think this game stays UNDER, as well.

Utah Jazz (-6) @ Minnesota Timberwolves with a total of 208
This is the final game for both teams before the Christmas Break, and in those cases, the normal move would be to take a peek at the home team, but given the scheduling angles, I'm not sure I'm on board with either club. Utah is in the final game of a 4-game road trip, where they dropped the opener in New Orleans, but have since rattled off a pair of wins (in Milwaukee and Cleveland). Minnesota is coming home off a 6-game road trip where they dropped all 6 games. Yikes. The first thought might be that Minnesota will want to bounce back, but we have to remember that the first game back home is generally not a good spot, especially considering the amount of travel Minnesota has logged in the last 2 weeks, and also how much you have to think they're looking forward to getting a few days off. This one comes down to the head coach, to me, and we all know Jerry Sloan and Deron Williams are not about to take a game off. Minnesota's young nucleus could very well be thinking about all those sweet days of rest and Christmas presents under the tree. Hell, considering how young Minnesota's roster is, a majority of those guys might be getting right back on a plane and going to see family. It's square, but I have a small lean to UTAH, and sluggishness factor leads me to the UNDER.

Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs (-7) with a total of 214
San Antonio might officially be overvalued. Apparently, all it took was a 24-3 SU start for oddsmakers to begin to catch up. I only bring this up because the Spurs have won every game this month, except the first, and while they're 9-1 SU, they're 5-5 ATS. That's a pretty good sign that the oddsmakers have caught up. I would also argue that the Spurs are starting to win on buzzer-beaters, which makes me think they're settling in the Lakers-like trend of giving an A-minus effort, just enough to wrap up that win. This is a revenge game for the Nuggets, though you have to think that Denver's collective brain is swirling right now, with all the rumors heating up. Denver plays again on Christmas Day, though I hardly think the Thunder are a team to look ahead to, when the Spurs, who just beat you on your home court, are standing in the way. The Spurs actually play again tomorrow in Orlando, so who knows if there is any sort of mental stuff going on with such a strong team. I would tend to think that the Spurs are going to be fine, mentally. Are the Nuggets? Tough to back a team dealing with emotional stresses, and tough to back a Nuggets team that has been pretty pedestrian on the road, but something tells me they hang within the 7 points and lose by 5-6. Small lean to DENVER and the UNDER.

Houston Rockets (-1) @ Los Angeles Clippers with a total of 207
The high total makes me think that Houston is going to dictate the tempo, but it doesn't necessarily mean that Houston is going to cover. If the Clippers get rolling, they can put up some serious points in the paint. Blake Griffin is an absolute menace around the bucket, and we saw Eric Gordon take the ball to the hoop a bit more in the Clippers current 3-game winning streak. We're also seeing Ryan Gomes playing some all-around decent basketball, Baron Davis starting to enjoy himself again, and even Rasual Butler providing a little shooting off the bench. The Clippers are doing a lot of good things offensively, and Houston doesn't seem like a team up to the task of stopping them. Maybe I'm out of my mind, but I've really, really liked what I've seen from the Clips the last few games. Something clicked, and they're both scoring and rebounding. Houston is shooting the lights out from downtown, and that's got them winning some games, too, but with each club looking at a long layoff, I have to give a slight nod to the home team. Something to keep in mind, though - teams on a run usually don't want a layoff, and both of these teams are candidates to come out of the 4-5 day break slowly, having lost some of the momentum they are building right now. We'll reassess that situation soon enough. Slight lean to CLIPPERS and OVER.

Inside the Paint - Wednesday
By Chris David

Six Straight?

Toronto (10-18 straight up, 14-13 against the spread) hasn’t had a great start to the young season but the club could get on the right track against Detroit (9-19 SU, 14-13 ATS) tonight. The Raptors have won and covered five in a row against the Pistons, including a 120-116 win on Dec. 11 from The Palace of Auburn Hills. Seven of the Raptors 10 wins this season have come at Air Canada Centre this season. And the Pistons have been horrible on the road this season, going 2-12 SU and 6-7 ATS. Detroit’s inability to score (88 PPG) away from home has helped the ‘under’ produce an 11-3 record.

Hitting the Wall

New York (16-12 SU, 18-10 ATS) was on top of the hardwood world this time last week, winners of eight straight. Then, the Knicks lost back-to-back nationally televised games at Madison Square Garden to the Celtics (116-118) and Heat (91-113). Unfortunately, the team’s bad luck continued over the weekend as New York fell in overtime to Cleveland (102-109) as a five-point road favorite. Can the club right the ship tonight?

The opponent, Oklahoma City (19-9 SU, 14-14 ATS), is no joke. The Thunder will be playing two games in two nights after facing Charlotte on Tuesday. This season, Oklahoma City has been a nice play on zero days rest (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS). Plus, the Thunder has gone 9-4 SU and 7-6 ATS on the road this season.

Last year, Oklahoma City swept the season series against New York, but the Knicks covered their home battle. The total went 1-1.

Green means Go!

Betting on double-digit favorites has never been known to be a good proposition in any sport but it’s hard to go against a Boston (22-4 SU, 15-11 ATS) team that has ripped off 13 straight wins, eight by 10 or more. One of those victories for the Celtics came against Philadelphia (102-101) and tonight, the 76ers (11-16 SU, 18-9 ATS) will have a chance to avenge that setback.

Doug Collins first year in Philly started out slow but if the playoffs started today, they would be the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference. From a gambling perspective, they’ve gone 9-6 SU and 13-2 ATS in their last 15. Of those six losses, four were against top-tier contenders (Atlanta, Miami, L.A. Lakers), including Boston. With that being said, an outright win in Beantown is probably out of the question but anything can happen. The 76ers just knocked off Orlando 97-89 as 6 ½-point road underdogs on Saturday.

Unfortunately for Philly, this battle against Boston will be on zero days rest after facing the Bulls on Tuesday. This year, Collins team is 5-4 both SU and ATS in back-to-back spots.

Boston didn’t have All-Star Rajon Rondo (ankle) in the lineup for the last two games and he’s not expected back until January. So far, the C’s are 2-0 both SU and ATS without Rondo.

Best in the West

San Antonio (24-3 SU, 16-10 ATS) continues to own the top record in the league and its current nine-game winning streak is coming close to the 12-game run that ended in late November. During that run, the Spurs went 8-3-1 ATS. This time around, the club is a pedestrian 5-4 ATS and just four of the wins were by double digits. And that might not seem like a big deal but when you’re laying 10-plus every night, it matters.

On Wednesday, most shops sent the Spurs out as seven-point home favorites against Denver (16-10 SU, 9-16 ATS). The Nuggets just wrapped up a three-game homestand on Saturday with a 115-113 win over Minnesota. The club went 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS in the set, with the loss coming to the Spurs (112-113) last Thursday on TNT.

Including that setback, Denver is now 0-3 both SU and ATS in its last three encounters against the Spurs. Surprisingly, all three of those losses were in Colorado. And gamblers should make a note that George Karl’s team has won and covered their last three trips to AT&T Center. Money-line bettors could gander at a generous price of plus-250 (Bet $100 to win $250) on the visitor.

Break up the Clippers!

Okay, the Clippers aren’t going to be making any noise in this year’s postseason but they’ve been helping gamblers make cash lately. Los Angeles (8-21 SU, 15-14 ATS) has won three straight behind an offense that is starting to come together. The club has put up 109, 100 and 113 points during this run, plus the defense has only given up 92 PPG during this stretch.

Dare we say four straight on Wednesday? That victory will have to come against a Houston (13-15 SU, 16-12 ATS) squad that has also won and covered three consecutive contests. Granted, none of the wins were against winning teams (Memphis, Sacramento, Golden State) but as you know, the Clips aren’t a winning club either. Since starting 5-12 in the months of October and November, the Rockets have gone 8-3, with all three losses on the road.

Most books opened the Rockets as one-point road favorites over the Clippers. Last year, Houston won and covered two of three against the Clippers including the lone battle in Los Angeles (102-85).

The total (208) seems a tad high, considering the Clippers have watched the ‘under’ go 11-5 in 16 outings at Staples Center this season. Keep in mind that L.A. has put up 100-plus in six consecutive games, including a 121-point performance in Monday’s win over the Warriors.

The tip-off time is a tad early for this contest (8:35 p.m. EST), which could mess with the normal routine for the Clippers.

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Tips and Trends

Oklahoma City Thunder at New York Knicks

THUNDER: (PK, O/U 218) Oklahoma City has caught Utah for the best record in the Northwest division. The Thunder are 20-9 SU and 15-14 ATS overall this year. Oklahoma City is 10-4 SU and 8-6 ATS in road games this season. Tonight will mark just the 7th time this season the Thunder won't be the listed favorite tonight. F Kevin Durant leads the NBA in scoring, averaging 27.4 PPG. Teammate PG Russell Westbrook isn't far behind, averaging 23.4 PPG for Oklahoma City. The Thunder won both meetings against the Knicks last year, a feat they would love to duplicate this year. The Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning SU record. Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days rest. The Thunder are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a losing home record. The Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the NBA Atlantic.

Thunder are 5-1 ATS last 6 games overall.
Over is 14-6 last 20 games against the Eastern Conference.

Key Injuries - C Nenad Krstic (back) is doubtful.

Projected Score: 114 (OVER-Total of the Day)

KNICKS: Despite losing their past 3 games SU, New York is a team on the rise. The Knicks are 16-12 SU and 18-9-1 ATS overall this season. Despite their winning season, New York has a losing record at home this year. The Knicks are just 6-7 SU this season, including 6-6-1 ATS. New York is averaging 107.9 PPG this year, 2nd best in the NBA. F A'mare Stoudemire is 2nd in the NBA in scoring, averaging 26.5 PPG this year. As great as their offense has been this year, the Knicks are quite suspect defensively. The Knicks are allowing 107.3 PPG, 3rd worst in the NBA. The Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning SU record. New York is 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games overall. The Knicks are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.

Knicks are 7-0 ATS last 7 games against the Western Conference. Over is 13-5 last 18 games playing on 3 or more days rest.

Key Injuries - G Toney Douglas (back) is doubtful.

Projected Score: 111