What Bettors Need To Know: Hawks at Nuggets
By RYAN COLAIANNI
Missing Billups
Midway through last season, Chauncey Billups came to the Denver Nuggets and immediately gave the team a spark, leading them to the Western Conference Finals.
After missing the Nuggets' last two games with a groin injury, both losses, Denver has once again shown how important it is to have Billups on the floor. The Nuggets were embarrassed in their last outing against the Memphis Grizzlies, falling behind by 23 points early and losing, 102-96.
According to the Denver Post, Billups is likely to miss his third straight game tonight.
"It's better than (it was Sunday), but I couldn't really run like I wanted to. I thought I would feel a little better than this, but we'll see,” Billups told the Denver Post. “We'll just keep seeing how I feel every day. I'm not ruling nothing out, but I definitely can't say I'll be ready to go.
“Hopefully I'll feel better. I did a lot of stuff on it, so hopefully it'll strengthen it up.”
Protecting the ball
The Atlanta Hawks are one of the NBA’s most surprising teams and they are doing it through simple fundamentals by taking care of the basketball. Heading into the Hawks game on Tuesday night, they led the NBA with just 12.1 turnovers per game.
"I just think if you're going to be a good offensive team, you can't turn the ball over because it limits your chances of scoring the ball,” Hawks coach Mike Woodson told the Atlanta Journal Constitution.
The Hawks also lead the league in turnover differential at plus 2.8 per game, which helps Atlanta to get more shots off.
"I think turnovers come when people are really trying to do too much, kind of out of your element. Turnovers are going to happen here or there, obviously, but the guys we have really value the ball,” forward Marvin Williams said.
Smith needs to step up
Nuggets forward J.R. Smith will be needed to help shoulder the scoring load in Billups’ absence. In Sunday’s loss to the Grizzlies, Smith struggled, going just two of 12 from the field and finishing with seven points.
"I think J.R. has been missing some easy shots. I'd like to see him attack the basket a little more. Our game is to attack the basket and look for the open man," Nuggets coach George Karl told the Denver Post.
Carmelo Anthony is missing Billups the most. The NBA’s leading scorer has been double-teamed constantly without Billups leaving others, like Smith, open.
Coming off a loss
Prior to a loss to the Bulls on Sunday, Atlanta had won six straight. Now the Hawks are looking to start a new winning streak as their four-game road trip continues tonight at Denver. The Nuggets are a tough out at home. Denver is 12-1 thus far on the season at home.
"We're becoming a better road team, but games like that, we had the home team down and you have to put them away, and we definitely didn't do that tonight," Williams said about the team's loss to Chicago on Sunday.
Do it again
Atlanta beat Denver by 25 points in the second week of the season. The win gave the Hawks all sorts of confidence and was the first of seven straight wins.
Melo finished with 30 points but was just 7 of 21 from the field. Josh Smith finished with 22 points and six blocks. The Nuggets played the game without starting power forward Kenyon Martin.
Trends
Atlanta is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 games and 7-2 ATS in its last nine meetings in Denver. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between Atlanta and Denver.
Denver is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 home games but just 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall.
Meanwhile, before the loss to the Bulls, Atlanta had covered in six straight.
Houston (17-11, 18-10 ATS) at Orlando (21-7, 15-13 ATS)
The Rockets shoot for their third straight win overall and their fourth consecutive victory over the Magic when they make their only trip of the season to Amway Arena.
Houston is coming off Tuesday’s 108-99 victory over the Clippers, barely cashing as an 8½-point home chalk. The Rockets have won three in a row, six of eight and nine of 12, and they’re 9-3 ATS during that stretch. Additionally, the SU winner is 12-2 ATS in Houston’s last 14 games, including 8-0 ATS in its last eight.
Orlando improved to 4-1 in its last five games (4-0 at home) with Monday’s 104-99 home win over the Jazz, but it came up short as a 7½-point road favorite, falling to 2-5 ATS in its last seven overall. The Magic have played just five home games since Thanksgiving, winning all five by an average of 11 ppg, but going just 3-2 ATS. For the season, the Magic are 11-2 at Amway Arena (7-6 ATS).
Houston is on a 6-1 SU and ATS roll against the Magic, including winning and covering the last three in a row. Additionally, the Rockets have won seven straight games in Orlando (7-0 ATS), including four outright upsets, and they’re 12-2 SU and ATS in the last 14 series meetings overall. Also, the SU winner has cashed in each of the last 26 battles between these squads.
The Rockets are riding ATS hot streaks of 6-2 overall, 8-3 on the highway, 6-2 on Wednesday, 5-1 against the Eastern Conference and 35-15-1 versus the Southeast Division. Orlando has cashed in six of eight on Wednesday and seven of 10 after getting one day of rest, but otherwise the Magic are in ATS slides of 2-5 overall, 5-11 against Western Conference clubs, 0-4 against the Southwest Division and 1-5 versus winning teams.
Houston is on “under” stretches of 9-4 overall, 6-2 on the highway, 4-1 against the Southeast Division and 11-5 when playing on back-to-back days. The under is also 5-2 in Orlando’s last seven against Southwest Division, but otherwise the Magic are on “over” rolls of 10-3 at home, 9-0 on Wednesday, 4-1 when playing after one day of rest and 7-2 versus winning teams.
Finally, the under is 6-3 in the last nine clashes between these teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON and UNDER
Atlanta (20-7 SU and ATS) at Denver (19-9, 14-14 ATS)
Two of the NBA’s top teams square off inside the Pepsi Center, where the Nuggets look to avenge their worst defeat of a season when they host the Hawks.
Atlanta continued its four-game road trip with Tuesday’s 112-87 whipping of the Timberwolves as a 9½-point road favorite. The Hawks, who had a six-game winning streak snapped in Saturday’s 101-98 overtime loss at Chicago as a four-point road favorite, have won seven of their last eight both SU and ATS. Atlanta, which is 8-5 (9-4 ATS) on the highway, has scored 110 points or more in five of its last seven contests.
The SU winner has covered the spread in 25 of Atlanta’s 27 games this year, including the last 14 in a row overall and the last 12 in a row on the road.
Denver is coming off back-to-back road losses at New Orleans (98-92) and Memphis (102-96), failing to cover in both contests. The Nuggets played both games without star point guard Chauncey Billups, who is listed as doubtful for this contest. Denver has followed up an 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS run by going 3-4 SU and 1-6 ATS in its last seven games, but all four losses came on the road. The Nuggets are 12-1 at the Pepsi Center (8-5 ATS), winning the last five in a row (3-2 ATS).
The Nuggets’ second loss of the season came at Atlanta on Nov. 7, and it was an ugly 125-100 setback as a three-point road underdog. The host has taken five in a row and eight of the last 10 between these squads, while the Hawks are 7-2 ATS in the last nine series clashes overall and 7-2 ATS in their last nine trips to the Mile High City. Finally, the favorite has covered in five of the last six meetings.
Atlanta is on a boatload of positive pointspread streaks, including 7-1 overall, 17-4-1 against the Western Conference, 8-0-1 versus the Northwest Division, 8-0 on Wednesday and 5-2 when playing on consecutive nights. Denver is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 at home and 4-1 ATS in its last five on Wednesday, but George Karl’s squad has failed to cash in six of seven overall and five of six against the Southeast Division.
The under is 7-1 in the Hawks’ last eight roadies, but the over is 16-5 in their last 21 on Wednesday and 4-0 in their last four against winning teams. Denver has stayed low in four of five overall and four of five after two days’ rest, but the Nuggets have topped the total in five straight Wednesday outings and four straight versus winning teams.
Lastly, these teams have gone over the total in their last four head-to-head meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
Houston Rockets vs. Orlando Magic
The Houston Rockets and the Orlando Magic will both be trying to pick up a win on Wednesday when they battle at Amway Arena.
Carl Landry dropped 27 points off the bench to lead the Rockets over the Clippers 108-99 on Tuesday night.
Houston covered as 8.5-point home favorites, while the teams played OVER the 194.5-point total listed by sportsbooks.
Dwight Howard had 21 points, nine rebounds, and five blocks to lead the Magic over the Jazz 104-99 on Monday night.
Orlando failed to cover as 7.5-point home favorites, while the game played OVER the 202-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Current streak:
Houston has won 3 straight games.
Orlando has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Houston: 17-11 SU, 17-10-1 ATS
Orlando: 21-7 SU, 14-12-2 ATS
Houston most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 4-6
Before playing New Jersey are 6-4
After playing LA Clippers are 7-3
After a win are 5-5
Orlando most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 4-6
Before playing Boston are 7-3
After playing Utah are 6-4
After a win are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Orlando
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Orlando
Houston is 13-1 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Orlando
Houston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Orlando
Orlando is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Orlando is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Orlando's last 13 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Orlando's last 6 games
Next up:
Houston at New Jersey, Saturday, December 26
Orlando home to Boston, Friday, December 25
Utah Jazz vs. Miami Heat
The Utah Jazz and the Miami Heat will both be trying to pick up a win on Wednesday when they battle at AmericanAirlines Arena.
Paul Millsap scored 20 points for Utah in its 104-99 loss to Orlando on Monday night.
Orlando failed to cover as 7.5-point home favorites, while the game played OVER the 202-point total listed by oddsmakers.
The Heat lost to Portland 102-95 as a 5-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (186.5).
Dwyane Wade led Miami with 28 points and 10 assists, while Quentin Richardson poured in 22 points.
Team records:
Utah: 16-12 SU, 16-12 ATS
Miami: 13-12 SU, 12-13 ATS
Utah most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 6-4
Before playing Philadelphia are 4-6
After playing Orlando are 7-3
After a loss are 9-1
Miami most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 6-4
Before playing New York are 2-8
After playing Portland are 4-6
After a loss are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Utah's last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Utah's last 8 games when playing Miami
Utah is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Utah is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Utah
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Utah
Miami is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing Utah
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games
Next up:
Utah home to Philadelphia, Saturday, December 26
Miami at New York, Friday, December 25
Toronto Raptors vs. Detroit Pistons
The Toronto Raptors and the Detroit Pistons will both be gunning for a victory on Wednesday when they meet at The Palace of Auburn Hills.
Chris Bosh poured in 25 points on Sunday afternoon as the Raptors rolled to a 98-92 win over the Hornets.
The Raptors managed to cover the 1.5-point spread in that contest, while the combined score fell UNDER the posted total (206).
Rodney Stuckey drained 20 points for Detroit in its 88-76 loss to Charlotte on Tuesday night.
Charlotte covered as 5.5-point home favorites, while the game played UNDER the 178-point total set by sportsbooks.
Current streak:
Toronto has won 2 straight games.
Detroit has lost 5 straight games.
Team records:
Toronto: 13-17 SU, 13-17 ATS
Detroit: 11-17 SU, 14-13-1 ATS
Toronto most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 4-6
Before playing Detroit are 6-4
After playing New Orleans are 2-8
After a win are 4-6
Detroit most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 6-4
Before playing Toronto are 7-3
After playing Charlotte are 6-4
After a loss are 2-8
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Toronto's last 8 games on the road
Toronto is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games
Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Toronto
Detroit is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Toronto
Next up:
Toronto home to Detroit, Sunday, December 27
Detroit at Toronto, Sunday, December 27
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. New Jersey Nets
The fans at Izod Center will be treated to a game between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the New Jersey Nets when they take their seats on Wednesday.
Al Jefferson led Minnesota with 17 points and 10 rebounds in its 112-89 loss to Atlanta on Tuesday night.
Atlanta covered as 8.5-point road favorites, while the teams played UNDER the 201.5-point total posted by sportsbooks.
The Nets dropped their sixth straight in a 103-84 loss to the Lakers last time out, as 13-point underdogs. The 187 points went UNDER the posted total of 196.5.
Devin Harris had 21 points with five rebounds and three assists for the Nets.
Current streak:
Minnesota has lost 2 straight games.
New Jersey has lost 7 straight games.
Team records:
Minnesota: 5-24 SU, 13-15-1 ATS
New Jersey: 2-26 SU, 8-19-1 ATS
Minnesota most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 4-6
Before playing Washington are 5-5
After playing Atlanta are 5-5
After a loss are 4-6
New Jersey most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 6-4
Before playing Houston are 1-9
After playing LA Lakers are 3-7
After a loss are 2-8
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against New Jersey
Minnesota is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Minnesota is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing New Jersey
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 10 games on the road
New Jersey is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Jersey's last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of New Jersey's last 20 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of New Jersey's last 23 games
Next up:
Minnesota home to Washington, Saturday, December 26
New Jersey home to Houston, Saturday, December 26
Washington Wizards vs. Milwaukee Bucks
The Washington Wizards and the Milwaukee Bucks will both be gunning for a victory on Wednesday when they meet at Bradley Center.
Gilbert Arenas went for 31 points and eight rebounds to lead the Wizards over the 76ers 105-98 on Tuesday night.
Washington covered as 2-point home favorites, while the teams played UNDER the 206.5-point total posted by sportsbooks.
Andrew Bogut scored 31 points and grabbed 18 rebounds to lift the Bucks past the Pacers 84-81 on Monday night.
Milwaukee cashed as 1-point road underdogs, while the teams played UNDER the 198.5-point total set by oddsmakers.
Team records:
Washington: 9-17 SU, 9-17 ATS
Milwaukee: 12-14 SU, 16-10 ATS
Washington most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 3-7
Before playing Minnesota are 4-6
After playing Philadelphia are 6-4
After a win are 2-8
Milwaukee most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 4-6
Before playing San Antonio are 2-8
After playing Indiana are 6-4
After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Washington's last 14 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing Milwaukee
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Washington is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
Milwaukee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Milwaukee is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games when playing at home against Washington
Next up:
Washington at Minnesota, Saturday, December 26
Milwaukee home to San Antonio, Saturday, December 26
Golden State Warriors vs. New Orleans Hornets
The Golden State Warriors and the New Orleans Hornets will both be gunning for a victory on Wednesday when they meet at New Orleans Arena.
Corey Maggette went for 25 points and six boards for Golden State in its 121-108 loss to Memphis on Tuesday night.
Memphis covered as 7.5-point home favorites, while the game played OVER the 222-point total listed by oddsmakers.
David West was good for 21 points and 12 boards in the Hornets' 98-92 loss to the Raptors on Sunday afternoon.
The Raptors managed to cover the 1.5-point spread in that contest, while the combined score fell UNDER the posted total (206).
Current streak:
Golden State has lost 6 straight games.
Team records:
Golden State: 7-20 SU, 12-14-1 ATS
New Orleans: 12-14 SU, 12-14 ATS
Golden State most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 5-5
Before playing Phoenix are 6-4
After playing Memphis are 5-5
After a loss are 2-8
New Orleans most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 3-7
Before playing Chicago are 4-6
After playing Toronto are 5-5
After a loss are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Golden State is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games when playing New Orleans
Golden State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Orleans's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against Golden State
New Orleans is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Golden State
Next up:
Golden State home to Phoenix, Saturday, December 26
New Orleans at Chicago, Saturday, December 26
Portland Trail Blazers vs. San Antonio Spurs
The Portland Trail Blazers and the San Antonio Spurs will both be trying to pick up a win on Wednesday when they battle at AT&T Center.
Brandon Roy had 23 points, six assists, and four steals to lift the Trail Blazers past the Mavericks 85-81 on Tuesday night.
Portland cashed as 5.5-point road underdogs, while the game played UNDER the 187.5-point total set by sportsbooks.
Tony Parker drained 19 points, as the Spurs ran past the Clippers 103-87 on Monday night.
San Antonio covered as 9-point home favorites, while the game played UNDER the 194-point total set by oddsmakers.
Current streak:
Portland has won 2 straight games.
San Antonio has won 3 straight games.
Team records:
Portland: 18-12 SU, 16-13-1 ATS
San Antonio: 15-10 SU, 12-12-1 ATS
Portland most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 5-5
Before playing Denver are 9-1
After playing Dallas are 5-5
After a win are 4-6
San Antonio most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 8-2
Before playing Milwaukee are 8-2
After playing LA Clippers are 3-7
After a win are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
Portland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Antonio
Portland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio
Portland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Portland is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
San Antonio is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Portland
San Antonio is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
San Antonio is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
San Antonio is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games when playing Portland
Next up:
Portland home to Denver, Friday, December 25
San Antonio at Milwaukee, Saturday, December 26
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Phoenix Suns
The Oklahoma City Thunder and the Phoenix Suns will both be trying to pick up a win on Wednesday when they battle at US Airways Center.
Kevin Durant dropped 30 points to lead the Thunder in their 111-108 loss to the Lakers on Tuesday night.
Los Angeles couldn't cover as 10-point home favorites, while the teams played OVER the 197.5-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Steve Nash led Phoenix with 18 points and 10 assists in its 109-91 loss to Cleveland on Monday night.
Cleveland cashed as 2.5-point road underdogs, while the game played UNDER the 209.5-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Current streak:
Oklahoma City has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Oklahoma City: 13-14 SU, 16-11 ATS
Phoenix: 18-10 SU, 16-11-1 ATS
Oklahoma City most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 3-7
Before playing Charlotte are 5-5
After playing LA Lakers are 1-9
After a loss are 7-3
Phoenix most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 7-3
Before playing LA Clippers are 6-4
After playing Cleveland are 7-3
After a loss are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Oklahoma City's last 12 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Oklahoma City is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Oklahoma City is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Phoenix
Phoenix is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
Phoenix is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
Phoenix is 19-1 SU in its last 20 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Phoenix's last 12 games
Next up:
Oklahoma City home to Charlotte, Saturday, December 26
Phoenix home to LA Clippers, Friday, December 25
Atlanta Hawks vs. Denver Nuggets
The fans at Pepsi Center will be treated to a game between the Atlanta Hawks and the Denver Nuggets when they take their seats on Wednesday.
Jamal Crawford scored 26 points, as the Hawks coasted over the Timberwolves 112-89 on Tuesday night.
Atlanta covered as 8.5-point road favorites, while the teams played UNDER the 201.5-point total posted by sportsbooks.
The Nuggets lost to Memphis 102-94 as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (208.5).
Carmelo Anthony led Denver with 41 points and Nene Hilario netted 19 points.
Current streak:
Denver has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Atlanta: 20-7 SU, 20-7 ATS
Denver: 19-9 SU, 14-14 ATS
Atlanta most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 4-6
Before playing Indiana are 6-4
After playing Minnesota are 4-6
After a win are 6-4
Denver most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 4-6
Before playing Portland are 7-3
After playing Memphis are 8-2
After a loss are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
Atlanta is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Denver
Atlanta is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Next up:
Atlanta at Indiana, Saturday, December 26
Denver at Portland, Friday, December 25
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Sacramento Kings
The Cleveland Cavaliers and the Sacramento Kings will both be trying to pick up a win on Wednesday when they battle at ARCO Arena.
LeBron James went for 29 points and six rebounds, as the Cavaliers ran past the Suns 109-91 on Monday night.
Cleveland cashed as 2.5-point road underdogs, while the game played UNDER the 209.5-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Tyreke Evans dropped 23 points and hauled down eight rebounds to lift the Kings over the Bulls 102-98 on Monday night.
Sacramento cashed as 4.5-point road underdogs, while the game played OVER the 198-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Current streak:
Sacramento has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Cleveland: 21-8 SU, 14-15 ATS
Sacramento: 13-14 SU, 17-9-1 ATS
Cleveland most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 8-2
Before playing LA Lakers are 5-5
After playing Phoenix are 9-1
After a win are 7-3
Sacramento most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 1-9
Before playing LA Lakers are 3-7
After playing Chicago are 3-7
After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Sacramento
Cleveland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cleveland's last 10 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
Sacramento is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Sacramento's last 6 games at home
Sacramento is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Sacramento is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games at home
Next up:
Cleveland at LA Lakers, Friday, December 25
Sacramento home to LA Lakers, Saturday, December 26
NBA RoundUp For 12/23
By Dan Bebe
Rockets @ Magic - Magic by 8.5 with a total of 200.5. Look at all those points the Rockets are getting, and I'll tell you the reason why in two words: Dwight Howard. The Rockets do not guard big men well, at all, as Luis Scola is the team's best big, and he's not a back to the basket type of guy. This is one of the hugest swings you'll see in spreads all season long, I would think. The Rockets were 8.5 favorites to the Clippers at home in a 9-point win, and now 8.5 point dogs here, a swing of 17 points! Are the Magic 11 points better than the Clippers on a neutral court? I don't think so, which means either we're getting a monster value with Houston here, or we're trying to get decoyed into buying the Rockets and the points. I am a tad concerned that the Magic have a Christmas game lined up with the Celtics in Orlando, so they may be tempted to look ahead, and that makes this line seem large, but with the Rockets having to travel a fair distance off what turned out to be a pretty tough game with the Clippers, they will be more tired than usual, and looking forward to getting a few days off before a date with the Nets. I lean slightly to the Magic, since I think this line is this high for a reason, and I lean to the Under since I don't see Houston playing a good game, and Orlando has been getting caught in some slower games of late.
Wolves @ Nets - Nets by 3 with a total of 199.5. Well, if this isn't a stinkbomb in the making. The two worst teams in the NBA finally get to meet, and I only hope it doesn't tear a hole in the fabric of space and time. New Jersey is also a favorite for only the 3rd time all season long. They have a serious advantage in this one, though, as Minnesota had to finish up getting shellacked by the Hawks late Central time, then had to fly east into what may still be rather unpleasant weather, and face the Nets an hour earlier than they're used to. Still, how can you really make an argument for either team? The Nets are 2-26 this year, 8-20 ATS, and losers of 3 straight, both SU and ATS. The Wolves are 5-24, 14-15 ATS, and are 3-9 this month SU. That being said, the Wolves have covered a fair share of games in December, managing to keep a lot of their losses reasonable, and actually beat a hot Sacramento team back on the 18th. I'll be very curious to see where this line goes and which side the public takes, though given the track record, I simply have to lean to Minnesota, despite the fatigue. I also think this total looks extremely high, and even though I think the public will bet the Under, I lean that way as well.
Raptors @ Pistons - This line is OFF, and Pistons games might just stay off until someone gets healthy. In the meantime, they are just so horribly outmanned and outgunned that they make it awfully tough to consider a wager on Detroit. Of course, that being said, Toronto is a bad, bad road team, and their complete lack of defense might be just what the doctor ordered. The Pistons lost and failed to cover in Charlotte, so this is indeed the second half of a back-to-back, but I don't think there's much farther the Pistons can fall. They just need healthy bodies now, and they're not getting any. The Pistons have lost SU and ATS in, now, 5 straight games, so there is certainly some value with Detroit, and I would not be at all surprised to see early money come in on Detroit. The Raptors have won, and covered, 2 straight games, but those have been home contests against the Nets, and against the Hornets on Sunday morning, which creates some additional value with the Pistons. This is also a home-and-home, and if indeed Toronto plays Detroit tough in this one, we might see a letdown in the next one, though we'll deal with that if/when we have to. I expect to see this game as close to a pick, with a total in the mid-190's.
Jazz @ Heat - The Heat by 2 with a total of 200.5. The Heat come into this one off a very surprising 7-point less at the hands of the Trailblazers, in Miami. The Heat had actually pretty decent basketball the previous two games, but just didn't bring any defensive intensity as the Trailblazers shot 51% for the game, and covered the dog line by quite a sum. The Jazz come to Miami after losing a good game with the Magic on Monday, losing by just 5 points as an 8-point dog. Amazingly, the Jazz have actually covered in 3 of their 4 games on this road trip so far, but this one has a weird feeling about it. Utah getting just 2 points in their final game before a short Christmas layoff, and you just don't know how particular teams are going to respond to the prospect of a few days of rest. Jerry Sloan is easily one of the finest coaches of all time, so my guess is that he'll get his guys ready to go, and given Miami's sloppy defense in the game against Portland, I just don't see how the Heat are really going to slow down the Jazz, unless Utah slows themselves down. The Heat play on Christmas Day against the Knicks, so they're in less of an emotional letdown spot, and they have a little value coming off that loss to the Blazers, but when Miami's defense goes back, everything goes bad. I lean to the Jazz to win this game outright, and I lean to the Over, since that last game could very well be a sign of things to come with this Heat D breaking down for a more extended stretch than just one game.
Warriors @ Hornets - Hornets by 9 with a total of 212. This number feels really, really high, but then, the Warriors seem to have completely run out of steam, their better players already looking forward to the All-Star break. This is what happens when you run your top 3 or 4 guys for 46-48 minutes every game - they get tired. Golden State is on the second half of a back-to-back, so the line has been adjusted the requisite 2 points, or so, and the Warriors also cruise into town off a SU and ATS loss to the surging Grizzlies. I have zero faith in the Warriors on the road, and I have to believe this line is this high precisely because the Warriors are in a tailspin of fatigue and apathy. I hate to lean to a favorite of this magnitude, but I do, as I really like what Chris Paul's been doing since his return from injury, and his teammates have begun to make shots. Hence, they win games at home, and are 10-3 in N'awleans. Can they win by 10? I'm not sure, and when all is said and done, the likelihood I have a play on this side is somewhat slim, but I do lean Hornets at first glance. The total looks way too high for a Hornets team that has been slowing things down and running their offense through CP3, and a Warriors team that just can't keep the tempo up for all 48 minutes, not when they're this shorthanded and jelly of leg, and losers of 6 straight (0-5-1 ATS).
Wizards @ Bucks - Milwaukee by 7 with a total of 198.5. This seems like too many points, flat out, and my concern is that I'm overlooking something obvious. The Wizards had a monster 4th quarter to knock off the Sixers, and indeed there is some travel for this one after a tough struggle the night before, but 7 points is just a ton for two teams where neither is all that good. My guess is that the Bucks are getting more than 3 points for home court, then the additional 2 for facing the Wizards on a back-to-back, so that these teams are within 1 point of each other on a neutral court. My feelings are that the back-to-back is being overemphasized, and that the Bucks team defense is slightly overrated right now, as well. The Bucks have been playing some low-scoring, poor FG-shooting contests, and as a result have played to 3 straight Unders. Is this the one where they finally get into a shoot-out, because you just know one is coming. Michael Redd isn't going to stay cold forever. I lean Washington on the side, and just a teeny, tiny bit to the Under, since I'm not sure the Wizards have the gusto to maintain a 100-point pace on the back-to-back, and the Bucks will be fine with a slower game.
Blazers @ Spurs - San Antonio by 8.5 with a total of 187.5. Another game with one team on a back-to-back and the other camped out waiting for them. The Blazers come into San Antonio fresh off a hard-fought road win over the Mavs, who did indeed have Dirk Nowitzki back. The Blazers slowed the game to a snail pace, and it worked like a charm, as the Mavs managed just 81 points, failing to get the Jason Kidd trademark easy buckets, and forcing the Mavs into a half-court only situation. Sure, Dirk is fine in the half-court (10/13 shooting), but his team went 21-for-67, not good enough by any stretch. Portland is starting to lock down a bit on defense again, and that's when they're most dangerous, going 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games, but this is a tricky spot. Not only are the Blazers on a back-to-back, but this is also their 4th game in 5 nights on a road trip, and they host the Nuggets on Christmas, a tough, tough stretch for Portland that just doesn't get any easier. Give Nate McMillan and co. credit, though; they've used this as a bonding experience, and they've played solid basketball on this trip. Still, I can't back a team in this sleepy of a spot -- it's San Antonio or nothing on the side, and the total should be pretty low in this one, as well.
Hawks @ Nuggets - This line is OFF. The Hawks come to town off a clubbing of the Minnesota Timberwolves, looking to try to make a statement in the altitude, but it's rarely easy, especially on a back-to-back. The other side of this coin is that the Nuggets really have looked pretty poor of late, losing in both New Orleans and Memphis, and not really playing with any sort of purpose. I don't know if Chauncey being out/less-than-100% is having this type of effect, or if Denver just thinks they can coast this regular season, but I'm not sure they're worth betting on until they show they're ready to play hard for all 48 minutes again. They have covered just 1 of their last 7 games, and if we're getting a reasonable number of points with the Hawks, we might be inclined to take it, since I think we'll see Denver overrated because of home court, altitude, and the Hawks being on the back-to-back. Let's wait and see how this line opens and moves, since it has the potential to be a very fun one with, perhaps, fewer points than people expect.
Thunder @ Suns - Suns by 8.5 with a total of 208.5. The first thing I notice here is that the Thunder are coming off a tough cover against the Lakers, and that the total looks ridiculously low for a Suns game with anyone, let alone a team with scorers like the Thunder. That total looks like it's trying to sucker me into the Over, and I'll be quite curious to see how the public bets this one, because I'd be willing to bet a small sum that they come in on the Over; hell, with the way the Thunder-Lakers game went, the public on the Over is almost a certainty. In any case, the Suns suffered their first home loss of the season to the Cavs on Monday, so they'll likely be looking to bounce back and get some revenge, and the pooped out Thunder might be just the ticket. It's really amazing how many 8.5-point favorites we're seeing, and most of them are rested home teams taking on road teams on the second half of a back-to-back. We really need to be careful with these games, because the Suns is the obvious play, but it looks that easy for a reason; it isn't. Maybe look at the total instead, and take a peek at the Under, since the Thunder know they're not going to win a shootout, and I expect to see Russell Westbrook do a better-than-average job staying at least near Steve Nash, and the Thunder's athleticism should allow them to switch on defense. Time will tell!
Cavs @ Kings - Cleveland by 6 with a total of 202.5. Make no mistake, the Kings are flying high, fresh off a 35-point comeback against the hapless Chicago Bulls. The Cavs are feeling pretty good about themselves, too, dealing the Phoenix Suns their first home loss of the season, so neither of these teams is really the value play. Of course, you have to look at the home dog, first and foremost, with Cleveland potentially gearing up for their Christmas Day game with the Lakers. Sacramento actually plays the Lakers next, too, but they get them the day after the Cavs, and they host LA. We'll cover that game soon enough, since I can almost guarantee the Kings will have some value on the ML. Anyway, back to the game at hand. I like the Kings' positive momentum coming off that huge comeback, but I do think they might have some trouble with fatigue. Emotional comebacks like that don't usually carry you full another entire game, and I'm concerned that we might see one very good half from Sactown, and one very bad one. As for the Cavs, they might give us a similar effort of 24 solid minutes, which makes me wonder if indeed they can cover those 6 points on the road. I think the Under's got a nice shot if Cleveland can impose some sort of tempo on the Kings, who should find scoring a bit more difficult than when they faced the Bulls.
Trend Report - Wednesday
By Ed Meyer
Wizards at Bucks - The Wizards are 0-8 ATS (-11.5 ppg) since January 23, 2004 as a road dog off a win as a home favorite in which they trailed at the end of the third quarter. The Wizards are 0-8 ATS (-9.4 ppg) since November 24, 2007 on the road with no rest after a game in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted. The Bucks are 0-11 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since March 25, 2007 at home when seeking revenge for a 1-3 point loss. The Bucks are 8-0 ATS (8.0 ppg) since April 02, 2008 with at most one day of rest off a win that broke at least a three-game losing streak.
Jazz at Heat - The Heat are 9-0 ATS (10.4 ppg) since December 06, 2004 versus the Jazz. The Heat are 0-8-1 ATS (-9.7 ppg) since April 06, 2006 at home after a game at home in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.
Warriors at Hornets - The Warriors are 8-0 ATS (10.4 ppg) since January 07, 2009 after a loss in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Hornets are 9-0-1 ATS (6.8 ppg) since December 22, 2006 as a favorite after a game on the road in which they shot less than 40% from the field.
Cavaliers at Kings - The Kings are 0-7-1 ATS (-10.4 ppg) since March 09, 1998 off a road win in which they trailed by double digits at the half.
Rockets at Magic - The Rockets are 7-0 ATS (7.6 ppg) since January 08, 2003 on the road versus the Magic.
Timberwolves at Nets - The Timberwolves are 9-0 ATS (12.9 ppg) since November 08, 2008 on the road after a game in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line. The Timberwolves are 8-0 ATS (9.7 ppg) since January 12, 2002 on the road after a game at home in which they had at least 15 fewer shot attempts than their opponent. The Nets are 0-10 ATS (-14.3 ppg) since March 05, 2005 with at least one day of rest after a double digit loss in which they had at least five fewer turnovers than their season-to-date average.
Hawks at Nuggets - The Nuggets are 9-0-1 ATS (5.5 ppg) since December 18, 2006 after losing the previous matchup on the road in which Kenyon Martin did not play.
Raptors at Pistons - The League is 0-10 ATS (-8.3 ppg) since March 21, 2008 as a dog with two or more days of rest after a game at home in which their opponent shot at least twenty three-pointers and made less than 25% of them. The Raptors are 8-0 ATS (8.4 ppg) since December 12, 2008 with at least one day of rest after a win in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Pistons are 0-9 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since February 17, 1999 with no rest after a loss in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted. The Pistons are 0-8 ATS (-12.2 ppg) since November 23, 2008 after a road loss in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.
Trailblazers at Spurs - The Trailblazers are 8-0 ATS (9.0 ppg) since March 08, 2008 on the road when facing a team they beat in their previous same-season match-up and they have a revenge game next next.
Thunder at Suns - The Suns are 6-0 ATS (10.6 ppg) since February 22, 2008 as a favorite after a home loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.
Tips and Trends
Houston Rockets at Orlando Magic
Rockets: Houston enters today at 17-11 SU and a winning road record of 9-7 SU on the season. The Rockets continue to overachieve, and proof of that is in their ATS record. Houston is 18-10 ATS this season, inluding 7-2 ATS over their past 9 contests. Houston is 10-3 ATS this season when listed as the underdog, with all 3 ATS losses coming on the road. Houston has scored more than 100 PTS in 4 of their past 5 games. For the season, the Rockets average 101 PPG, led by PG Aaron Brooks. Brooks averages 17 PPG while dishing out 5.4 APG which also leads the Rockets. 3 other Rockets average double figures in PTS for the season. Houston is improving defensively, as they've held 9 of their last 13 opponents under 100 PTS. Houston is 4-3 ATS this season on the back end of back to back games. Tonight will be the 6th game in the past 9 days for Houston.
Rockets are 5-1 ATS last 6 games as a road underdog.
Under is 11-5 last 16 games after playing the previous night.
Key Injuries - F Chase Budinger (back) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 100 (Side of the Day)
Magic (-8, O/U 201): Orlando has the 3rd best record in the entire NBA at 21-7 SU. The Magic are also an impressive 11-2 SU at home this season. The Magic have won 5 consecutive home games, and are 7-6 ATS at home this season. The Magic are 2-3 ATS this season as a single digit home favorite. Orlando has scored 100 PTS or more in 9 of their past 12 games. 4 Magic players average double digits, led by F Vince Carter and his 18.6 PPG. Carter has been quiet of late, only scoring more than 20 PTS once in his past 6 games. C Dwight Howard averages 18 PPG while grabbing nearly 13 RPG for the season. Howard leads the entire NBA with 12.9 RPG this season, and is coming off his first single digit rebounding game in his last 8 games. As a team, Orlando averages 102 PPG which is 9th best in the NBA. The Magic are also 9th in the NBA in scoring defense, allowing 96.5 PPG.
Magic is 5-11 ATS last 16 vs. Western Conference.
Over is 10-3 last 13 games as a home favorite.
Key Injuries - F Matt Barnes (hand) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 103