Atlanta Hawks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Atlanta Hawks and the Cleveland Cavaliers will both be trying to pick up a win on Wednesday when they battle at Quicken Loans Arena.
Mo Williams drained 20 points to lead the Cavaliers over the Hawks 95-84 on Tuesday night.
Cleveland cashed as 2.5-point road underdogs, while the game played UNDER the 193-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Delonte West chipped in with 17 points off the bench for the Cavaliers, who got 15 points from Zydrunas Ilgauskas in the upset.
Reserve Jamal Crawford netted 26 points for Atlanta, while Josh Smith added 15 points and eight rebounds for the Hawks.
Current streak:
Cleveland has won 5 straight games.
Team records:
Atlanta: 21-9 SU, 21-9 ATS
Cleveland: 25-8 SU, 18-15 ATS
Atlanta most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 5-5
Before playing New York are 7-3
After playing Cleveland are 4-6
After a loss are 7-3
Cleveland most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 6-4
Before playing New Jersey are 7-3
After playing Atlanta are 8-2
After a win are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Atlanta is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 10 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Next up:
Atlanta home to New York, Friday, January 1
Cleveland at New Jersey, Saturday, January 2
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Orlando Magic
The Milwaukee Bucks and the Orlando Magic will both be gunning for a victory on Wednesday when they meet at Amway Arena.
The Bucks were defeated 94-84 by the Bobcats last time out, as 4.5-point underdogs. That game's 178 points went UNDER the posted total of 186.5.
Brandon Jennings poured in a game-high 24 points in a losing effort.
Vince Carter had 27 points in Orlando's 86-77 loss to the Celtics on Friday afternoon.
The Magic had been pegged as 5-point home favorites in that contest, while the combined score fell UNDER the day's posted total (191.5).
Current streak:
Milwaukee has lost 3 straight games.
Team records:
Milwaukee: 12-17 SU, 16-13 ATS
Orlando: 22-8 SU, 15-13-2 ATS
Milwaukee most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 5-5
Before playing Oklahoma City are 1-9
After playing Charlotte are 5-5
After a loss are 3-7
Orlando most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 9-1
Before playing Minnesota are 6-4
After playing Boston are 6-4
After a loss are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Milwaukee's last 24 games
Milwaukee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 6 games
Orlando is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Orlando is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Orlando is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Orlando's last 5 games
Next up:
Milwaukee home to Oklahoma City, Saturday, January 2
Orlando at Minnesota, Friday, January 1
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Indiana Pacers
The Memphis Grizzlies and the Indiana Pacers will both be trying to pick up a win on Wednesday when they battle at Conseco Fieldhouse.
O.J. Mayo tossed in 28 points and the Grizzlies pulled out a 116-111 victory over the Wizards in overtime on Monday. The Grizzlies failed to cover the 5-point spread, while that game's combined score sailed OVER the posted total of 208.
Zach Randolph had 23 points and 19 rebounds for a double-double for the Grizzlies, while Mike Conley added 22 points in the win.
Roy Hibbert came off the pine to put up 17 points and six rebounds for Indiana in its 104-95 loss to Chicago on Tuesday night.
Chicago covered as 7-point home favorites, while the teams played OVER the 194-point total set by oddsmakers.
Current streak:
Indiana has lost 7 straight games.
Team records:
Memphis: 14-16 SU, 16-14 ATS
Indiana: 9-21 SU, 11-19 ATS
Memphis most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 5-5
Before playing Phoenix are 2-8
After playing Washington are 5-5
After a win are 4-6
Indiana most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 2-8
Before playing Minnesota are 7-3
After playing Chicago are 4-6
After a loss are 2-8
A few trends to consider:
Memphis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Memphis's last 5 games on the road
Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
Indiana is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Memphis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing at home against Memphis
Indiana is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against Memphis
Indiana is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing Memphis
Next up:
Memphis at Phoenix, Saturday, January 2
Indiana home to Minnesota, Saturday, January 2
Charlotte Bobcats vs. Toronto Raptors
The fans at Air Canada Centre will be treated to a game between the Charlotte Bobcats and the Toronto Raptors when they take their seats on Wednesday.
The Bobcats erupted with 33 points in the second quarter en route to a 94-84 victory over the Bucks on Monday. The Bobcats covered the 4.5-point spread, while the 178 points went UNDER the posted total of 186.5.
Gerald Wallace led the Bobcats with 21 points and 14 rebounds for a double-double. Flip Murry added 16 points off the bench.
The Raptors defeated Detroit 102-95 as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (193.5).
Chris Bosh scored 25 points and grabbed 16 rebounds for Toronto, while Jarrett Jack added 17 points in the win.
Current streak:
Toronto has won 4 straight games.
Team records:
Charlotte: 12-17 SU, 18-11 ATS
Toronto: 15-17 SU, 15-17 ATS
Charlotte most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 3-7
Before playing Miami are 2-8
After playing Milwaukee are 6-4
After a win are 5-5
Toronto most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 4-6
Before playing Boston are 5-5
After playing Detroit are 7-3
After a win are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Charlotte's last 9 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Charlotte is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Charlotte's last 5 games
Charlotte is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Toronto's last 9 games when playing at home against Charlotte
Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Next up:
Charlotte at Miami, Saturday, January 2
Toronto at Boston, Saturday, January 2
New York Knicks vs. New Jersey Nets
Divisional bragging rights will be on the line on Wednesday when the New York Knicks and the New Jersey Nets meet at Izod Center.
David Lee had 30 points and 12 rebounds, as the Knicks overpowered the Pistons 104-87 on Tuesday night.
New York cashed as 5-point road underdogs, while the game played UNDER the 194-point total set by oddsmakers.
Yi Jianlian had 29 points and seven rebounds in the Nets 105-89 loss to the Thunder last time out. The Nets were 5.5-point underdogs in that game, while the combined 194 points went UNDER the posted total of 195.5.
Current streak:
New Jersey has lost 10 straight games.
Team records:
New York: 12-19 SU, 15-16 ATS
New Jersey: 2-29 SU, 9-21-1 ATS
New York most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 3-7
Before playing Atlanta are 5-5
After playing Detroit are 6-4
After a win are 6-4
New Jersey most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 4-6
Before playing Cleveland are 4-6
After playing Oklahoma City are 4-6
After a loss are 1-9
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 5 games when playing New Jersey
New York is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New Jersey
New York is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New Jersey
New York is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing New Jersey
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Jersey's last 5 games when playing New York
New Jersey is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games when playing at home against New York
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of New Jersey's last 23 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Jersey's last 9 games when playing at home against New York
Next up:
New York at Atlanta, Friday, January 1
New Jersey home to Cleveland, Saturday, January 2
Miami Heat vs. New Orleans Hornets
The fans at New Orleans Arena will be treated to a game between the Miami Heat and the New Orleans Hornets when they take their seats on Wednesday.
The Heat defeated Indiana 114-80 as an 8.5-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (196).
Dwyane Wade scored a game-high 25 points for Miami and Jermaine O'Neal added 19 points.
David West went for 44 points and 12 boards for New Orleans in its 108-100 loss to Houston on Tuesday night.
Houston covered as 5.5-point home favorites, while the game played OVER the 193-point total set by oddsmakers.
Current streak:
Miami has won 3 straight games.
New Orleans has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Miami: 16-12 SU, 15-13 ATS
New Orleans: 13-16 SU, 12-17 ATS
Miami most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 4-6
Before playing San Antonio are 3-7
After playing Indiana are 2-8
After a win are 4-6
New Orleans most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 7-3
Before playing Houston are 6-4
After playing Houston are 6-4
After a loss are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
New Orleans is 8-0-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Miami
New Orleans is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games when playing at home against Miami
Next up:
Miami at San Antonio, Thursday, December 31
New Orleans home to Houston, Saturday, January 2
Utah Jazz vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
The division rival Utah Jazz and Minnesota Timberwolves are set to renew hostilities on Wednesday when they meet at Target Center.
Deron Williams had 27 points, five rebounds and eight assists to lead the Jazz over the 76ers 97-76 on Saturday. The Jazz covered the 7-point spread, while the 173 points went UNDER the posted total of 203.
Carlos Boozer had a double-double with 19 points and 11 rebounds for the Jazz, while Mekmet Okur and Wesley Matthews had 16 apiece in that win.
Al Jefferson went for 20 points and eight rebounds for Minnesota in its 117-99 loss to San Antonio on Tuesday night.
San Antonio covered as 11-point home favorites, while the teams played OVER the 198-point total set by sportsbooks.
Team records:
Utah: 17-13 SU, 17-13 ATS
Minnesota: 7-25 SU, 15-16-1 ATS
Utah most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 7-3
Before playing Oklahoma City are 6-4
After playing Philadelphia are 2-8
After a win are 4-6
Minnesota most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 3-7
Before playing Orlando are 3-7
After playing San Antonio are 3-7
After a loss are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Utah's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Utah is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games
Utah is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Utah
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Utah
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games at home
Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Utah
Next up:
Utah at Oklahoma City, Thursday, December 31
Minnesota home to Orlando, Friday, January 1
Boston Celtics vs. Phoenix Suns
The Boston Celtics and the Phoenix Suns will both be gunning for a victory on Wednesday when they meet at US Airways Center.
Rajon Rondo netted 30 points and dished out 15 in the Celtics 103-99 loss to the Warriors last time out. The Celtics were 5.5-point favorites in that game, while the 202 points went UNDER the posted total of 210.
Steve Nash had 16 points and dished out 13 assists in leading the Suns over the Lakers 118-103 on Monday. The Suns won that game as a slight 1-point underdog, while the 221 points made it OVER the posted total of 216.5.
Amare Stoudemire netted a team-high 26 points for the Suns, and Jared Dudley added 19 in the win.
Current streak:
Boston has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Boston: 23-7 SU, 13-17 ATS
Phoenix: 20-12 SU, 18-13-1 ATS
Boston most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 7-3
Before playing Toronto are 8-2
After playing Golden State are 4-6
After a loss are 7-3
Phoenix most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 7-3
Before playing Memphis are 7-3
After playing LA Lakers are 8-2
After a win are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Boston is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games
Boston is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games
Phoenix is 21-2 SU in its last 23 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 7 games when playing Boston
Phoenix is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Boston
Next up:
Boston home to Toronto, Saturday, January 2
Phoenix home to Memphis, Saturday, January 2
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Portland Trail Blazers
The Los Angeles Clippers and the Portland Trail Blazers will both be gunning for a victory on Wednesday when they meet at Rose Garden.
The Clippers upset Boston 92-90 as an 8.5-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (190.5).
Baron Davis scored 24 points and handed out 13 assists for the Clippers and Chris Kaman delivered 27 points and 12 rebounds in the win.
The Trail Blazers were upset 104-93 by the 76ers last time out, as 6-point favorites. The teams played UNDER the posted total of 193.
Brandon Roy netted 20 points in the loss.
Team records:
Los Angeles: 13-17 SU, 11-19 ATS
Portland: 20-13 SU, 18-14-1 ATS
Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 2-8
Before playing Philadelphia are 3-7
After playing Boston are 5-5
After a win are 3-7
Portland most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 4-6
Before playing Golden State are 8-2
After playing Philadelphia are 3-7
After a loss are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the LA Clippers last 5 games when playing on the road against Portland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the LA Clippers last 7 games on the road
LA Clippers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on the road against Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the LA Clippers last 18 games
Portland is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing LA Clippers
Portland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games
Portland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Next up:
LA Clippers home to Philadelphia, Thursday, December 31
Portland home to Golden State, Saturday, January 2
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Sacramento Kings
The Philadelphia 76ers and the Sacramento Kings will both be trying to pick up a win on Wednesday when they battle at ARCO Arena.
Elton Brand dropped 25 points and hauled down nine rebounds to lead the 76ers over the Trail Blazers 104-93 on Monday, as 6-point underdogs. The teams played UNDER the posted total of 193.
Allen Iverson chipped in with 19 points for the 76ers.
The Kings got down early but clawed back to defeat the Nuggets 106-101 on Monday, as 2-point underdogs. The 207 points went UNDER the posted total of 211.5.
Andres Nocioni netted 21 points and grabbed six rebounds for the Kings, while Donte Greene and Beno Udrih added 17 apiece in the win.
Team records:
Philadelphia: 8-22 SU, 12-18 ATS
Sacramento: 14-16 SU, 18-11-1 ATS
Philadelphia most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 5-5
Before playing LA Clippers are 6-4
After playing Portland are 4-6
After a win are 2-8
Sacramento most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 6-4
Before playing LA Lakers are 3-7
After playing Denver are 5-5
After a win are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Sacramento
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Sacramento
Philadelphia is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing on the road against Sacramento
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Sacramento's last 6 games at home
Sacramento is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Sacramento is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Sacramento's last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Next up:
Philadelphia at LA Clippers, Thursday, December 31
Sacramento at LA Lakers, Friday, January 1
Atlanta (21-9 SU and ATS) at Cleveland (25-8, 18-15 ATS)
Two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference square off for the second straight night, with the scene shifting from Philips Arena in Atlanta to Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland.
The Hawks’ explosive offense – which had produced 110 points or more in six of the previous nine games – was quieted big-time last night, as they fell 95-84 as a 2½-point home favorite, just their third home loss of the season. Tonight, Atlanta is playing its fifth road game in its last six contests, and it split the last four SU and ATS. For the season, the Hawks are 9-6 SU and 10-5 ATS on the highway.
Cleveland is now riding a five-game SU and ATS winning streak, with those victories coming by margins of 18, 13, 15, 25 and 9 points. The Cavaliers have also won 10 of their last 11 and 14 of their last 17, and they’ve matched their season high with five straight spread-covers (which comes on the heels of a 2-6 ATS slump). Also, Cleveland has won 10 straight home games and is 12-2 SU at Quicken Loans Arena, but just 5-9 ATS. One of those spread-covers came in Sunday’s 108-83 rout of Houston as an 8½-point home chalk.
Cleveland swept the Hawks out of last year’s Eastern Conference playoffs, going 3-0-1 ATS, and the Cavs have now won seven in a row and nine of the last 10 in this rivalry, going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home. The host is 5-3-1 ATS in the last nine head-to-head matchups, and the favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five.
Atlanta’s 21-9 ATS mark on the season is buoyed by additional pointspread runs of 4-2 against the Eastern Conference, 15-8-1 against the Central Division, 8-1 on Wednesday, 7-4-1 against opponents with a winning record, 4-1-1 as an underdog and 19-7-1 as a pup of five to 10½ points. Cleveland is on ATS tears of 5-0 overall, 4-1 on Wednesday and 5-1 against winning teams.
Atlanta carries “over” trends of 18-12 this season, 6-2 versus the Eastern Conference, 4-2 against the Central Division and 19-7 on Wednesday, but the under is 7-3 in its last 10 roadies and 11-3 in its last 14 as an underdog. For Cleveland, the under is on runs of 5-1 at home, 6-1 in Eastern Conference games and 40-16 after an ATS triumph, but the over is 5-2 in the Cavs’ last seven on Wednesday. Finally, though last night’s game stayed way under the total, the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams in Cleveland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Boston (23-7, 13-17 ATS) at Phoenix (20-12, 18-14 ATS)
The Celtics, who wrap up a four-game road trip tonight, look to avoid their first three-game losing skid when their make their only visit of the season to US Airways Center for a battle with the Suns.
Boston upset Orlando 86-77 on Christmas Day, cashing as a 5½-point underdog as it won for the 14th time in its previous 15 games. However, the Celtics then traveled west and got dumped by the Clippers on Sunday (92-90 as an 8½-point road chalk) and Golden State on Monday (103-99 as a 5½-point favorite). Since All-Star Paul Pierce went down with an injury, Boston has averaged just 91.7 ppg after topping the century mark 10 times in its previous 14 games. Pierce will be sidelined for at least two weeks.
Phoenix throttled the defending-champion Lakers 118-103 as a one-point home underdog on Monday, but it is still only 6-9 SU in its last 15 games (7-8 ATS). The Suns’ offense is humming again, putting up 113, 124, 127 and 118 points in its last four games. Phoenix is 12-2 SU and 9-5 ATS at home this year, averaging a whopping 115.4 ppg while shooting a blistering 51.2 percent from the field. However, it is facing a Boston team that gives up just 90.7 ppg (43.7 percent) on the road.
These teams split their season series last year, with the visitor pulling off the outright upset both times, including Boston’s 128-108 rout as a two-point underdog. Prior to last season, the host had won four in a row (3-1 ATS) in this rivalry, yet the visitor is still 10-3 ATS in the last 13 clashes, with the Celtics cashing in five of their last six trips to the desert. Also, the SU winner has cashed in 13 of the last 15 meetings, including the past five in a row.
The underdog has cashed in each of Boston’s last four games and eight of the last 10, with the Celtics going 3-7 ATS during this span. In fact, since starting out 4-1 ATS, Doc Rivers’ squad has failed to cash in 16 of its last 25 games (6-8 ATS on the road). Additionally, Boston is in pointspread slumps of 0-6 against the Pacific Division and 1-6 after a SU loss, but it has covered in four straight against winning teams and is 38-15-1 ATS in its last 54 as an underdog, 48-19-1 ATS in its last 68 as a road pup and 5-0-1 ATS in its last six as a ‘dog of less than five points (all on the road).
The Suns are on ATS runs of 5-2 at home, 20-9-1 a homefavorite, 4-1 when laying less than five points at home, 5-2 against the Atlantic Division, 5-2 versus winning teams and 11-5 when playing one day of rest. However, they’re just 1-5 ATS in their last six after a SU victory and 0-4 ATS in their last four following a double-digit win.
Boston is on “under” surges of 4-0 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 4-1 as an underdog and 5-1 against the Pacific Division, but the over is 14-5 in its last 19 after a SU defeat and 9-4 in its last 13 on Wednesday. Phoenix has followed a 13-3-2 “under” run by topping the total in four straight overall, and the over is 25-9 in its last 34 on Wednesday, but the under is 7-0-1 in its last eight against Eastern Conference opponents.
Finally, the over is on a 10-4-1 surge in this rivalry, but the total has alternated in the last five meetings in Phoenix, with last year’s clash in the desert clearing the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NBA RoundUp For 12/30
By Dan Bebe
Bucks @ Magic - Orlando by 10.5 with a total of 193. This team has not played in ages! The Magic last played on Christmas Day, so they've had all kinds of time to rest up for this one, a rather uninspiring game against the Bucks. The question is, are they TOO rested? We might very well see the Magic a little out of sync from not playing much, or we might see the tired among them rejuvenated, and maybe Dwight Howard needed a rest. I find it tough to handicap games where one team is coming off half a week without a game. The Magic are, however, coming off that Christmas Day stinker against the Celtics, where they scored but 77 points. This might be a spot where they could look to really take out some aggression on a poor road team. The Bucks have just done nothing lately to inspire confidence, having lost 3 consecutive games, 2 at home and 1 on the road, and none has been close. Milwaukee has been posting FG% numbers in the 30's far too often, and I'm just not sure this one is going to be much different. The Magic have very strong interior defense, which means more jumpshots on the road, a recipe for disaster. Amazingly, I lean to Orlando on the big spread, and I lean to the Under since I don't see the Bucks breaking 90.
Grizzlies @ Pacers - This line is OFF. Yet, we really don't need it to know what to expect. The Pacers stink without Danny Granger, and the Grizzlies have been red, red hot. I wouldn't be surprised to see Memphis as a road favorite in this contest, where the Grizz are 1-0 SU but 0-1 ATS. Still, they missed that cover against Minnesota on the road by 1.5 points, and I don't think it told us much about Memphis. In contrast, the Pacers got trounced in Chicago last night, come home on the second night of a back-to-back, and really couldn't look any worse in the eyes of bettors. Is this a situation where their value is so high that you just have to bet Indy? I don't think so. The Grizzlies have won and covered 4 of 5 games, but haven't been as successful on the road. The Pacers have lost 7 straight, and have been pretty bad both at home and on the road, so no real notes there. I have to lean to Memphis, just because of how bad the Pacers have looked, but the real value in this game might be in the Under. The Pacers are just unable to score right now, and Memphis plays, I'd say, surprisingly decent defense. Let's see where this opens because these two teams have reputations of being up-tempo clubs, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this thing open in the 190's, and the public on the Over. Time will tell, let's get a line and move from there.
Bobcats @ Raptors - Toronto by 5.5 with a total of 195. This is an interesting game, if mostly because I didn't truly remember what Toronto did in their last game before looking it up. As it turns out, the Raptors have quietly won 4 games in a row, covering in all 4, including a home-and-home sweep of the mostly-injured Pistons. Toronto is significantly better at home than they are on the road, and that is presumably why we're seeing a medium-sized spread like this one. This is a clash of two teams with monster home/road splits, where Toronto is 9.8 points better at home than on the road, and the Bobcats are almost 14 points worse on the road than at home. Charlotte just continues to lose on the road, though they have covered a few of those spreads. Is this one of those spots? It's awfully close. I do lean slightly to the home team here to win by 6 or 7, but that might just be too close to call. There just isn't much, if any, value on the Raptors, even though I believe they will win this game without a ton of stress. On the total of 195, I think we have some value on the Under. Both teams have been in a few low-scoring games, and I think Charlotte should be able to defend the Raptors relatively well, I just don't think they'll score.
Hawks @ Cavs - Cavs by 6 with a total of 193. This game is a great rebound spot for the Hawks, and I think there's some value in Atlanta on the ML. The Hawks just got burned by the Cavs AGAIN, this time on their home court, and what's more, Cleveland held the high-flying Hawks to just 10 4th-quarter points! Atlanta will not take kindly to this beating at home, and I expect them to bring every ounce of strength they've got left in tomorrow's contest. It is terribly difficult to beat the same team two times in a row in these home-and-homes, and Cleveland was definitely amped up to play this game on the road and ruin the Hawks' day. I think Cleveland actually used more energy in this game than Atlanta did, believe it or not, and if you don't trust me, go back to yesterday's blog and check out the write-up on that game. All my handicapping numbers showed Atlanta by 3 yesterday, but my gut told me the Cavs were going to dominate, and sometimes you just have to stop crunching numbers and look at a picture of Lebron James. The guy is on a mission, but on the road, the Cavs are at way less of a premium than at home, and the ATS marks show that. Cleveland is 13-6 ATS on the road, and now a perfect 5-0 as an underdog. They do not take kindly to a "+" being next to their name. Now, back home they go as a 6-point favorite, and I think this game could go down to the wire. I also think that the score could be much higher with both defenses a little tired from last night's war. I like the Hawks, and I like the Over.
Knicks @ Nets - This line is OFF. Not positive why. In any case, the Knicks hop a jet out of the snowy mess that is Detroit, Wayne County, and roll back to the eastern seaboard to tackle the hapless Nets. I expect to see the Knicks as slight favorites in this one, and I expect a decent performance out of them, though the back-to-back might be just what the doctor ordered for a Nets cover. I honestly can't believe how terrible the Nets continue to play. They are 2-29 on the season, on pace to lose 70 games, or more! Every day, every time the Nets play, we all keep looking at the team and saying, "This can't really last, can it?" Yet, here we are. Jersey has lost their last 10 games in a row, covering only 2 of those 10, and were actually favored in one of those contests. The Nets' last game was as a 5.5-point home dog to the Thunder, a team slightly better than the Knicks, so I'd wager this game opens with the Nets as a 2.5-3 point underdog. The Knicks don't have any real notable trends on back-to-backs. Yeah, they play a little worse, so maybe this line will open close to a pick because of the fatigue issue, but I think New York on the back-to-back is still stronger than a full-power Nets team. I lean New York for the road win, though we'll see about the line. I think we'll see a fairly low total, and I still lean Under, as the Knicks just keep ratcheting up their defense, and even today managed to squeeze just under the final line. Let's wait and see before we do anything crazy, but those are just a few thoughts about this contest. I really like the problems David Lee can give Brook Lopez, and I think New York has a defensive advantage at every position other than center.
Heat @ Hornets - Hornets by 1.5 with a total of 191. New Orleans returns home off a tough loss in Houston, and the Hornets inability to defend on the road continues. This team is 12-3 at home, and just a miserable 2-13 on the road. They're not terribly impressive ATS in either location, but certainly if they're going to win this one, there's a good chance they're going to cover the spread. A very interesting line, though given the Hornets are returning home on a back-to-back, and the Heat are beginning a quick 2-game, 2-night road trip through N'awleans and San Antonio. Certainly, there may be the tendency for Miami to look ahead a little bit, but I think more often than not when a decent team goes on a fast, tough road trip like this one they are inclined to come together and really put together a nice effort. Miami has won and covered 3 straight games, and 5 of 6, so they're playing good ball, and really dominant defense, and I really feel as though the value here, believe it or not, is actually with the Heat. Chris Paul and company may not have the gusto for all 4 quarters, and despite their strong home performances, I think they may be catching the Heat at the wrong team. Slight lean to Miami. In terms of the total, the Hornets just finished up a very high-scoring game with the Rockets, but amazingly, the game didn't really feature all that many shots. The Rockets just happened to can a ridiculous 12 of 23 long range jumpers, and that's 36 points right there. I think this game could stay Under.
Jazz @ Timberwolves - Jazz by 7.5 with a total of 200. Double revenge for the GOOD team? What the hell is going on here? Minnesota comes home, a fairly long flight back from San Antonio, off a 17-point loss and will try to beat the Jazz for the 3rd time this year in as many tries. This series really seems to be a matchup nightmare for the Jazz, and even after 2 games I still haven't been able to quite put my finger on WHY exactly the Wolves are able to stick it to the Jazz. In terms of matchups, Deron Williams is clearly better than any guard the Wolves can roll out there. My best guess, looking at the old numbers, is that the Wolves have had a slight rebounding advantage, but otherwise, these teams look pretty evenly matched. Hell, the Jazz have shot over 50% in both of their losses, but the Wolves shot 57% and 49%, so they've been no slouches, either. I have to think that this line is as high as it is because not only are the Wolves coming home on a back-to-back, but the Jazz are on double revenge. I find it exceedingly difficult to swallow that the Wolves will beat Utah 3 times in a month. This side is a pass for me right now, given the strange match-ups, and it is indeed a divisional game, but man...anyway, in terms of the total, the two previous games have been totals of 209 and 218, and we're seeing this one at 200? A little fishy if you ask me. If this line makes an initial move to 199, I think we might jump on the Under.
Celtics @ Suns - Suns by 1 with a total of 209. This should be a good one. The Celtics roll into the Valley of the Sun having lost back-to-back terrible games to the Clippers and Warriors. You want to talk about a team ready to release some anger? The Celtics haven't had this much value in quite some time, but the Suns are not going to be easy to slow down here. Phoenix shoots the ball so well at home, and we got a full display of that when they rained 3's down upon the Lakers in their last win. The Suns seem ripe for a slight letdown, even though the Celtics are in town, and the Celtics seem ripe for, well, playing like an underdog, nipping and snapping their way through all 48 minutes. I've said it before, and I'll say it again, the Celtics have been an underdog twice, and they're 2-0. Dangerous spot to back Phoenix, but they've surprised us before. Can the Celtics get the energy up for the final game on this road trip, or will they roll over and head home with their tail between their legs. This team just doesn't feel like a tail-down club. I lean to Boston. On the total, Phoenix is going to try to go at 200 mph and Boston is going to try to go 15 mph, and I think this total is pretty close to accurate. I lean just slightly to the Under since I think Boston really works hard to dictate the tempo.
Sixers @ Kings - This line is OFF. Well, how about those darn Sixers? Off a terrible game in Utah, they stomped Portland in the second half at the Rose Garden, and now they take their traveling roadshow to Northern California to meet the Kings. I would expect to see Sacramento favored by 3-5 points in this one, and I honestly have no strong feelings either way. The Sixers are alternating between 3-4 horrid performances and 1 very good one, and I haven't found the pattern. This team is actually slightly better on the road than at home, and I would wager the good vibes they built in the second half in Portland might carry into the first quarter or first half in Sacramento, but those Kings are very, very tough at home, and the Sixers have the second part of a back-to-back with the Clippers tomorrow. The Kings are 11-5 at home, and most people remember their last 2 home losses, which came in OT to the Cavs, and 2OT to the Lakers. If you're going to beat Sacramento in Sactown, you're going to have to do it when they just forget to show up, and I don't see that being the case here. The Kings' next game is indeed with the Lakers, but that's not until Jan 1, so they have a day off between contests. I think this could be a high scoring game more than anything else, I lean to the Over.
Clippers @ Blazers - Portland by 7.5 with a total of 189. Well, LAC beat the Celtics, but that might very well be the high point of this season. Portland just lost to the Sixers in the Rose Garden is a letdown game after the emotional win over the Nuggets on Christmas. Now we see the resilience of this club. Will they bounce back after taking an off day to collect their breath, or will they continue to slide after the long win streak came to an end? Well, with a young team, I usually like to fade them coming off a long win streak. It seems to take more than one day to get the positive thoughts going again, and I think the Clippers might be able to capitalize when Portland comes out sluggish in the first half. Hell, the Blazers might wake up part way through this game, and they could still cover, but if the Clips can get any kind of a lead, that certainly feels good when you can also attach 7.5 points to that underdog lead. That being said, I'm not sure the Clippers have the firepower to shoot 57% for a game like the Sixers did. That looked like it might have been a little bit of a fluke. The Clippers remain one of the poorer teams in the NBA, and easily the best reason for considering LA in this game is because they're only 1 point worse on the road than at home. The only reason to consider Portland is because they would seem to be the better team. It's a tough call, but I lean Clippers, and I lean way, way Under. These teams seem ripe for a total in the 170's.
Raps on a High
By SportsPic
Thanks to some solid play on the defensive end allowing a miniscule 86.5 points per game in victories over Nets, Hornets and most recently a pair vs Pistons the Raptors carry a season-high four game win streak into the contest. Purple Dino's have perfect conditions on their side when they host Charlotte on Wednesday. Bobcats not only sport one of the leagues worst road records at 1-13 (8-6 ATS) but they manage just 86.7 points per game on the highway. Consider Toronto knowing Raptors are playing much better of late entering with a solid +16.5 scoring differential the last four on the hardwood while Bobcats come in with a +2.75 differential it's last four games. Raptors a perfect 8-0 (7-1 ATS) this season holding opponents under the century mark in scoring, 19-0 the past nineteen performing the feat with a sparkling 18-1 mark at the betting window adds fuel Raptors move the season-high winning streak to five while padding bettors bankrolls.
Trend Report - Wednesday
By Ed Meyer
Hawks at Cavaliers - The League is 8-0 ATS (5.6 ppg) since November 02, 2007 on the road after a double digit home loss in which they had five or fewer offensive rebounds. The Cavaliers are 15-0-2 ATS (7.4 ppg) since November 20, 2004 at home when they have won and covered their last four games. The Cavaliers are 7-0-1 ATS (9.3 ppg) since February 18, 1999 as a home favorite when they covered by double digits two games straight.
Heat at Hornets - The Heat are 0-9 ATS (-9.9 ppg) since February 09, 2006 after a double digit win in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers. The Hornets are 9-0 ATS (9.6 ppg) since November 15, 2005 versus the Heat. The Hornets are 8-0 ATS (4.8 ppg) since February 08, 2006 at home off a road loss in which they led at the end of the third quarter.
76ers at Kings - The Sixers are 8-0 ATS (7.2 ppg) since March 03, 2008 on the road with at least one day of rest after a game on the road in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Kings are 0-8 ATS (-13.2 ppg) since January 03, 2006 as a favorite after a game at home after a win in which they made fewer baskets than their opponent.
Bucks at Magic - The Bucks are 0-11 ATS (-9.8 ppg) since March 25, 2007 when seeking revenge for a 1-3 point loss as a dog. The Bucks are 10-0-2 ATS (9.8 ppg) since December 07, 1996 on the road with at least one day of rest after a loss in which they has more than 10 refereed turnovers. The Magic are 7-0-1 ATS (5.4 ppg) since January 15, 2008 at home after a loss in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted.
Knicks at Nets - The Knicks are 8-0 ATS (8.4 ppg) since March 15, 2001 as a favorite with at most one day of rest after a double digit win in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two.
Grizzlies at Pacers - The Grizzlies are 0-6 ATS (-12.9 ppg) since November 26, 2004 as a dog when their opponent is playing their fourth game in five days. The Pacers are 8-0-1 ATS (4.3 ppg) since January 07, 2009 when they had at least ten more assists in their previous game than in the game before. The Pacers are 0-7-1 ATS (-13.9 ppg) since March 09, 2003 with no rest when their opponent is off an overtime game.
Bobcats at Raptors - The Raptors are 0-7 ATS (-7.5 ppg) since November 01, 2002 with at least one day of rest after a game at home in which they has more than 10 refereed turnovers. The Raptors are 7-0 ATS (7.0 ppg) since December 22, 2004 at home with at least one day of rest after a game in which they were whistled for at least 30 personal fouls.
Celtics at Suns - The Celtics are 10-0 ATS (6.5 ppg) since January 10, 2006 as a road dog when facing a team that covered by double digits against them in their previous same-season meeting at home. The Celtics are 9-0-1 ATS (10.5 ppg) since February 25, 2005 as a road dog after a game in which they had at least five more turnovers than their season-to-date average. The Suns are 0-6 ATS (-4.1 ppg) since April 13, 2007 at home after a game at home in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line.
Jazz at Timberwolves - The Jazz are 0-7 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since April 13, 1996 as a favorite with two or more days of rest after a win in which their DPA was minus 15 points or less. The Jazz are 7-0 ATS (11.9 ppg) since April 06, 1999 when seeking revenge for a loss as a home favorite in which they were out-rebounded by double-digits. The Timberwolves are 0-11 ATS (-9.5 ppg) since November 27, 1996 as a home dog after a road loss in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points lower than their season-to-date average. The Timberwolves are 9-0 ATS (8.3 ppg) since January 02, 1996 at home after a road loss against the Spurs.
Clippers at Trailblazers - The Clippers are 0-12 ATS (-7.9 ppg) since January 24, 2001 as a dog with two or more days of rest after a game at home in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average. The Trailblazers are 0-13 ATS (-5.4 ppg) since March 01, 2005 with at most one day of rest after a home loss in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two.