Wednesday Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The last full slate of NBA games for nearly a week takes place Wednesday night with ten contests to wager on. There is a pair of nationally televised games on Thursday prior to the break, but Wednesday's card is filled with intriguing matchups, including three of the top four teams in the East taking the court.
Heat (24-27 SU, 24-27 ATS) at Hawks (32-17 SU, 31-18 ATS)
These two Southeast Division rivals hook up for the third time this season, as the home club has won each of the first two meetings. Atlanta looks to avenge an embarrassing 92-75 setback in South Florida back in early January as two-point favorites.
The Heat and Hawks will both be playing with no rest, as Miami battles Houston on Tuesday while Atlanta takes on Memphis. The Heat has endured a tough road (literally), playing 14 of the last 22 games away from American Airlines Arena. Miami is 1-8 SU the last nine meetings in Atlanta, including a 105-90 defeat at Philips Arena as 7 ½-point underdogs in mid-November.
Following three days off, the Hawks play the second end of a back-to-back, going for a tenth home victory in 11 tries. Mike Woodson's has profited nicely at home during this hot streak, compiling a 7-3 ATS mark.
The Heat playing with no rest has been a disaster for Miami backers, as Dwyane Wade's team is 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS on the second of a back-to-back. On the flip side, the Hawks have thrived against tired clubs, going 11-3 SU/ATS against teams on no rest. At home, Atlanta is 7-2 ATS in this situation.
Magic (35-17 SU, 26-25-1 ATS) at Bulls (24-25 SU, 23-24-2 ATS)
Orlando invades the Windy City after a pair of come-from-behind victories over Boston and New Orleans. The Magic looks to avenge an eight-point loss at the United Center in early January as 3 ½-point 'chalk.' The Bulls head home following Tuesday's divisional showdown at Indiana against the Pacers.
Vinny Del Negro's team has not been a strong play on no rest, going 4-8 SU/ATS. However, the Bulls have won each of their previous three at home on the second of a back-to-back, including last Saturday's victory over the Heat. The underdog role has worked well for Chicago, putting together a 10-3 ATS mark the last 13 when receiving points.
The Magic rallied at Boston on Sunday, thanks to a 30-5 third-quarter run to beat the Celtics for a third time this season. Orlando fell behind New Orleans on Monday by 17 points, but Vince Carter led the comeback, thanks to a 48-point effort in a 123-117 victory. The Magic did not cover as nine-point favorites, but Orlando has played better on the road recently. Stan Van Gundy's team is 3-1 SU/ATS the last four on the highway following a 1-6 SU/ATS run away from Central Florida.
Trying to get the total right at the United Center has been tough over the last seven weeks, as Chicago is 7-7 to the 'over.' Only six of those opponents are currently .500, with the Bulls going 9-5 SU.
Celtics (32-17 SU, 19-29-1 ATS) at Hornets (27-25 SU, 25-27 ATS)
Boston should be thrilled it isn't seeing a team named the Magic, Hawks, or Lakers. Following Sunday's loss to Orlando, the C's are 1-8 SU against the three aforementioned clubs. On the flip side, Boston is 31-9 against the rest of the league, and luckily New Orleans fits in that category.
The Hornets squandered a huge lead at Orlando in Monday's six-point setback to the Magic, but New Orleans managed its sixth straight road underdog cover. Chris Paul continues to recover from a knee injury, as the Hornets are 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS without their All-Star guard. Home has not been where the victories are for New Orleans, owning a 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS mark the last six games in the Big Easy.
The Celtics will play their next five games on the road, with four of these contests coming after the All-Star Break on the West Coast. Doc Rivers' club owns a dreadful 4-17 ATS mark against teams off a loss, while going 3-7 ATS on the road off a defeat. Boston did knock off New Orleans at TD Banknorth Garden in early November, 97-87, but the Hornets covered as 11-point 'dogs.
Blazers (30-23 SU, 28-24-1 ATS) at Suns (31-21 SU, 28-24 ATS)
Phoenix returns home from a solid 4-0 road trip, trying to win a sixth straight game leading into the break. The Suns look to bounce back from a disappointing 105-102 loss at the Rose Garden in mid-December, after Phoenix blew a 15-point lead.
The Blazers will be playing with no rest following Tuesday's home contest against the Thunder. Portland has lost nine straight meetings in the Valley, including twice last season by double-digits. Brandon Roy continues to rest his injured hamstring, with the Blazers going 4-6 SU and 6-4 ATS without their leading scorer since January 22. Portland does own a solid 5-3 ATS mark as a road underdog with Roy out this season.
The Suns were a pointspread disaster through most of January, going 2-9 ATS at one stretch. However, Phoenix's home victory over Dallas on January 28 started this five-game hot streak, which included wins over the Rockets, Hornets, and Nuggets. Returning home may not be the best thing, as the Suns are 2-5 ATS the last seven in Arizona. Alvin Gentry's team is on a 1-6 ATS run against teams playing with no rest, while Portland is 9-3 ATS on the second of a back-to-back.
Lakers (40-13 SU, 24-27-2 ATS) at Jazz (31-18 SU, 29-17-3 ATS)
Los Angeles hasn't missed a beat without Kobe Bryant, winning each of the last two games by double-digits against Portland and San Antonio. The Lakers travel to Salt Lake to battle a Jazz team that continues to play fantastic basketball, especially at home.
Jerry Sloan's club has won 12 of 13 heading into Tuesday's road contest against the Clippers. Utah has taken care of its home court, capturing ten straight games at Energy Solutions Arena. The Jazz knocked off the Lakers, 102-94 as two-point favorites in Salt Lake back in December.
Bryant is expected to be out through All-Star weekend to rest his sprained ankle, but the Lakers continue to win, going 7-2 the last nine games. The Champs have thrived on the road as well, putting together a 5-2-1 ATS ledger the previous nine away from Staples Center. Three of the games in this road span have been decided by two points or less, including losses at Memphis and Toronto.
Five straight meetings between these teams have finished 'under' the total, while both games without Bryant have resulted in 'unders.'
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Philadelphia 76ers vs. Toronto Raptors
The Philadelphia 76ers and the Toronto Raptors will meet on the court at Air Canada Centre on Wednesday in a battle of division rivals.
Andre Iguodala went for 24 points and six assists, as the 76ers ripped the Timberwolves 119-97 on Tuesday night.
Philadelphia covered as 7-point home favorites, while the game played OVER the 205.5-point total listed by oddsmakers.
The Raptors defeated Sacramento 115-104 as an 8-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (217.5).
Chris Bosh scored 36 points to go with 11 rebounds for Toronto, while Andrea Bargnani added 22 points in the win.
Current streak:
Philadelphia has won 5 straight games.
Toronto has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Philadelphia: 20-31 SU, 23-28 ATS
Toronto: 28-23 SU, 26-25 ATS
Philadelphia most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 5-5
Before playing Miami are 6-4
After playing Minnesota are 4-6
After a win are 6-4
Toronto most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 5-5
Before playing Memphis are 3-7
After playing Sacramento are 4-6
After a win are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Philadelphia's last 10 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Toronto's last 10 games when playing Philadelphia
Next up:
Philadelphia home to Miami, Tuesday, February 16
Toronto home to Memphis, Wednesday, February 17
Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks
The division rival Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks are set to renew hostilities on Wednesday when they meet at Philips Arena.
Dwyane Wade went for 17 points, seven assists, and five steals, as the Heat hammered the Rockets 99-66 on Tuesday night.
Miami covered as 5-point home favorites, while the teams played UNDER the 192.5-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Jamal Crawford drained 28 points off the bench to lead the Hawks past the Grizzlies 108-94 on Tuesday night.
Atlanta cashed as 1-point road favorites, while the game played OVER the 199-point total set by oddsmakers.
Current streak:
Atlanta has won 3 straight games.
Team records:
Miami: 25-27 SU, 25-26-1 ATS
Atlanta: 33-17 SU, 32-18 ATS
Miami most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 4-6
Before playing Philadelphia are 3-7
After playing Houston are 4-6
After a win are 3-7
Atlanta most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 6-4
Before playing LA Clippers are 1-9
After playing Memphis are 7-3
After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Miami's last 13 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Next up:
Miami at Philadelphia, Tuesday, February 16
Atlanta at LA Clippers, Wednesday, February 17
Milwaukee Bucks vs. New Jersey Nets
The Milwaukee Bucks and the New Jersey Nets will both be trying to pick up a win on Wednesday when they battle at Izod Center.
Brandon Jennings dropped 18 points for Milwaukee in its 93-81 loss to Detroit on Tuesday night.
Detroit covered as 8-point road underdogs, while the game played UNDER the 189.5-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Courtney Lee had 24 points and seven boards for New Jersey in its 104-97 loss to Cleveland on Tuesday night.
Cleveland failed to cover as 16-point home favorites, while the game played OVER the 189-point total listed by sportsbooks.
Current streak:
New Jersey has lost 7 straight games.
Team records:
Milwaukee: 23-27 SU, 30-20 ATS
New Jersey: 4-47 SU, 19-30-2 ATS
Milwaukee most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 1-9
Before playing Houston are 4-6
After playing Detroit are 5-5
After a loss are 6-4
New Jersey most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 2-8
Before playing Charlotte are 5-5
After playing Cleveland are 2-8
After a loss are 1-9
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing New Jersey
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 7 games
Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Milwaukee is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Jersey's last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Jersey's last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Jersey's last 5 games
New Jersey is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Next up:
Milwaukee home to Houston, Wednesday, February 17
New Jersey at Charlotte, Tuesday, February 16
Sacramento Kings vs. Detroit Pistons
The Sacramento Kings and the Detroit Pistons will both be trying to pick up a win on Wednesday when they battle at The Palace of Auburn Hills.
Tyreke Evans had 27 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists to lift the Kings over the Knicks 118-114 in overtime on Tuesday night.
Sacramento cashed as 5-point road underdogs, while the game played OVER the 215-point total posted by oddsmakers.
Rodney Stuckey went for 18 points and seven assists to lead the Pistons past the Bucks 93-81 on Tuesday night.
Detroit covered as 8-point road underdogs, while the game played UNDER the 189.5-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Current streak:
Detroit has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Sacramento: 17-34 SU, 24-25-2 ATS
Detroit: 18-32 SU, 21-26-3 ATS
Sacramento most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 7-3
Before playing Boston are 4-6
After playing New York are 4-6
After a win are 3-7
Detroit most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 7-3
Before playing Minnesota are 4-6
After playing Milwaukee are 7-3
After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 games
Sacramento is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit
Sacramento is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games when playing Detroit
Sacramento is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Sacramento
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Detroit's last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games at home
Detroit is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Sacramento
Next up:
Sacramento home to Boston, Tuesday, February 16
Detroit home to Minnesota, Tuesday, February 16
Boston Celtics vs. New Orleans Hornets
The Boston Celtics and the New Orleans Hornets will both be gunning for a victory on Wednesday when they meet at New Orleans Arena.
The Celtics lost to Orlando 96-89 as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (187.5).
Rajon Rondo led Boston with 17 points and nine assists, while Ray Allen scored 14 points.
Peja Stojakovic had 29 points and nine rebounds for New Orleans in its 123-117 loss to Orlando on Monday night.
Orlando failed to cover as 9.5-point home favorites, while the teams played OVER the 194.5-point total posted by oddsmakers.
Team records:
Boston: 32-17 SU, 19-29-1 ATS
New Orleans: 27-25 SU, 25-27 ATS
Boston most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 8-2
Before playing Sacramento are 6-4
After playing Orlando are 5-5
After a loss are 5-5
New Orleans most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 5-5
Before playing Utah are 4-6
After playing Orlando are 4-6
After a loss are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Boston is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of New Orleans's last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games at home
New Orleans is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games at home
New Orleans is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Boston
Next up:
Boston at Sacramento, Tuesday, February 16
New Orleans home to Utah, Wednesday, February 17
Orlando Magic vs. Chicago Bulls
The Orlando Magic and the Chicago Bulls will both be trying to pick up a win on Wednesday when they battle at United Center.
Vince Carter went for 48 points and seven rebounds to lead the Magic past the Hornets 123-117 on Monday night.
Orlando failed to cover as 9.5-point home favorites, while the teams played OVER the 194.5-point total posted by oddsmakers.
Luol Deng went for 23 points and 11 rebounds to lead the Bulls past the Pacers 109-101 on Tuesday night.
Chicago cashed as 2-point road underdogs, while the game played OVER the 204.5-point total set by oddsmakers.
Current streak:
Orlando has won 2 straight games.
Chicago has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Orlando: 35-17 SU, 25-24-3 ATS
Chicago: 25-25 SU, 24-24-2 ATS
Orlando most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 2-8
Before playing Cleveland are 7-3
After playing New Orleans are 5-5
After a win are 7-3
Chicago most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 4-6
Before playing New York are 4-6
After playing Indiana are 6-4
After a win are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
Orlando is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing at home against Orlando
Chicago is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
Chicago is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Next up:
Orlando at Cleveland, Thursday, February 11
Chicago home to New York, Tuesday, February 16
Charlotte Bobcats vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
The Charlotte Bobcats and the Minnesota Timberwolves will both be gunning for a victory on Wednesday when they meet at Target Center.
Stephen Jackson drained 22 points to lift the Bobcats past the Wizards 94-92 on Tuesday night.
Charlotte couldn't cover as 8.5-point home favorites, while the game played UNDER the 189-point total set by sportsbooks.
Wayne Ellington dropped 16 points for Minnesota in its 119-97 loss to Philadelphia on Tuesday night.
Philadelphia covered as 7-point home favorites, while the game played OVER the 205.5-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Team records:
Charlotte: 25-25 SU, 29-21 ATS
Minnesota: 13-39 SU, 26-25-1 ATS
Charlotte most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 3-7
Before playing New Jersey are 3-7
After playing Washington are 3-7
After a win are 7-3
Minnesota most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 1-9
Before playing Detroit are 7-3
After playing Philadelphia are 2-8
After a loss are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Charlotte's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Charlotte is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Charlotte's last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Charlotte
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Next up:
Charlotte home to New Jersey, Tuesday, February 16
Minnesota at Detroit, Tuesday, February 16
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Phoenix Suns
The Portland Trail Blazers and the Phoenix Suns will both be gunning for a victory on Wednesday when they meet at US Airways Center.
Andre Miller posted 22 points, six boards, and six assists for Portland in its 89-77 loss to Oklahoma City on Tuesday night.
Oklahoma City covered as 1.5-point road favorites, while the teams played UNDER the 190.5-point total set by sportsbooks.
Steve Nash went for 23 points, eight rebounds, and 10 assists to help the Suns defeat the Kings 114-102 on Friday. The Suns covered the 2.5-point spread, while the 216 points went UNDER the posted total of 222.5.
Amare Stoudemire had a team-high 30 points with nine rebounds in the win.
Current streak:
Portland has lost 2 straight games.
Phoenix has won 5 straight games.
Team records:
Portland: 30-24 SU, 29-24-1 ATS
Phoenix: 31-21 SU, 28-23-1 ATS
Portland most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 7-3
Before playing LA Clippers are 5-5
After playing Oklahoma City are 4-6
After a loss are 6-4
Phoenix most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 4-6
Before playing Memphis are 7-3
After playing Sacramento are 7-3
After a win are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Portland's last 5 games on the road
Portland is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Phoenix is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Phoenix is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Phoenix is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Portland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games when playing Portland
Next up:
Portland home to LA Clippers, Tuesday, February 16
Phoenix at Memphis, Tuesday, February 16
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Utah Jazz
The Los Angeles Lakers and the Utah Jazz will both be trying to pick up a win on Wednesday when they battle at EnergySolutions Arena.
Pau Gasol racked up 21 points, 19 rebounds, eight assists, and five blocks to lead the Lakers over the Spurs 101-89 on Monday night.
Los Angeles covered as 2.5-point home favorites, while the game played UNDER the 192.5-point total set by oddsmakers.
Carlos Boozer went for 34 points, 14 rebounds, and four steals to lead the Jazz over the Clippers 109-99 on Tuesday night.
Utah covered as 5.5-point road favorites, while the teams played OVER the 201.5-point total set by oddsmakers.
Current streak:
Los Angeles has won 2 straight games.
Utah has won 9 straight games.
Team records:
Los Angeles: 40-13 SU, 24-28-1 ATS
Utah: 32-18 SU, 30-17-3 ATS
Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 7-3
Before playing Golden State are 6-4
After playing San Antonio are 6-4
After a win are 6-4
Utah most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 8-2
Before playing Houston are 8-2
After playing LA Clippers are 6-4
After a win are 9-1
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the LA Lakers last 5 games when playing Utah
LA Lakers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the LA Lakers last 5 games on the road
LA Lakers are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Utah's last 5 games when playing LA Lakers
Utah is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Next up:
LA Lakers home to Golden State, Tuesday, February 16
Utah at Houston, Tuesday, February 16
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Golden State Warriors
The division rival Los Angeles Clippers and Golden State Warriors are set to renew hostilities on Wednesday when they meet at Oracle Arena.
Chris Kaman had 19 points and seven boards for Los Angeles in its 109-99 loss to Utah on Tuesday night.Utah covered as 5.5-point road favorites, while the teams played OVER the 201.5-point total set by oddsmakers.
Anthony Morrow had 33 points and 11 rebounds for Golden State in its 127-117 loss to Dallas on Monday night.
Dallas covered as 5-point road favorites, while the game played OVER the 217-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Current streak:
Los Angeles has lost 3 straight games.
Golden State has lost 9 straight games.
Team records:
Los Angeles: 21-30 SU, 24-27 ATS
Golden State: 13-37 SU, 27-22-1 ATS
Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 6-4
Before playing Portland are 4-6
After playing Utah are 5-5
After a loss are 3-7
Golden State most recently:
When playing on Wednesday are 3-7
Before playing LA Lakers are 6-4
After playing Dallas are 2-8
After a loss are 2-8
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of the LA Clippers last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the LA Clippers last 9 games when playing on the road against Golden State
LA Clippers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games
LA Clippers are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games when playing Golden State
Golden State is 7-1 SU in their last 8 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
Golden State is 6-2 SU in their last 8 games when playing LA Clippers
Golden State is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games at home
Next up:
LA Clippers at Portland, Tuesday, February 16
Golden State at LA Lakers, Tuesday, February 16
NBA RoundUp For 2/10
By Dan Bebe
Heat @ Hawks - Hawks by 7.5 with a total of 190.5. Good grief. Actually, I might start a few of the write-ups with that same 2-word sentence. Two teams on back-to-back; two teams coming off nice wins (Miami at home, Atlanta on the road), and two teams playing their final game before the All Star break. These teams have played twice, and each time the home team beat the pants off the other at home. Without going into too much detail on all the reasons I find this side unbettable, I just don't feel like either team has a strong advantage, situationally. Miami has been much, much worse on back-to-backs than the more athletic Hawks, but we all know how streaky the Heat can be, so they might very well put up another incredible defensive show in this one like they did last night to the Rockets. I think, based on recent perception of these teams, the Heat are getting some line value (maybe a point, 1.5 max), so I suppose you could say I have a (yes, a new name for it) "theoretical" lean to the Heat. Miami has been horrible at scoring on back-to-back, and this team knows their only chance of winning is to play solid defense. Atlanta has been slowing the tempo more lately than early this season as teams have adjusted to their style of play, and I see Atlanta winning this home game 97-89. I lean Under.
Sixers @ Raptors - Toronto by 7 with a total of 208.5. Beware the steamtrain! The 76ers have won, and covered, 4 straight games, and this last win, yesterday, was a blowout of the red-hot Timberwolves. And unfortunately, that blowout drew too much attention to the Sixers streak. The Raptors continue to play very well at home, taking advantage of a Sacramento meltdown for another home win and cover, but at the same time, Toronto has almost no line value right now. They played well for over a month, the public has caught on, and they are now a team where the situation has to be just perfect to back them. I don't believe this spot is perfect. Philadelphia is notoriously GOOD on the second half of back-to-backs, currently 8-3 ATS, and seemingly not suffering from the usual levels of fatigue. Those 2 extra points they get on the back-to-back are going right in the bank of value. Moreover, Toronto beat Philadelphia IN Philly, and because of the Sixers strength on the road, I think they most certainly keep this one close. Lean to Philly. The total, well, I just have to look at the Over - Toronto plays a quick tempo and shoots well at home, while Philly is going to a crazy-fast style.
Bucks @ Nets - This line is OFF. Is Milwaukee overvalued right now? You bet your ass they are. A lot of folks at Pregame are very sharp, as evidenced by the fact that I personally saw at least 2 or 3 guys note that the line on the Detroit game was inflated. Okay, so maybe the 12-point outright loss wasn't fully expected, but courtesy of the Bucks righteous ATS win-streak, they are no longer a value, and only worth playing, in my opinion, when they're going up against stronger competition, or teams that are more overvalued than they are. This is definitely not one of those games. The Nets are consistently getting an extra 1-2 points of line value because of the public's perception that they are terrible -- not far from the truth, really, but it does allow oddsmakers to deflate the Nets lines and still get 50/50 money on the game. We forget sometimes that the books aren't trying to "sucker" you on most games, and even the games we call "traps" only appear that way because books know they can set a line the wrong way, and the discrepancy between the size of sharp and public money will balance the books. The Nets are on double revenge here, but we've talked about how that doesn't really matter for a bad team like Jersey. This is another spot where I don't particularly like the Nets to play a strong game, but I think that when the line comes out they'll be getting more points than they should - lean to Jersey, and while the Nets are starting to play a little faster, and Milwaukee is going to play some poorer than average defense on the back-to-back, I think I lean Over.
Kings @ Pistons - Detroit by 3.5 with a total of 197.5. Strong effort from the Pistons in Milwaukee; strong effort from the Kings in New York. These are two underrated teams butting heads in their final game before the break, and honestly, there's no good way to look at this one. The real important note here is that due to the Kings going to OT at Madison Square Garden, this line will likely jump to 4.5 or 5, SO, while I don't have a lean to either side, feel free to look at a middle. Detroit -3.5 now, Sacramento plus the points later? It's worth a look. That total looks pretty high for a Pistons game, but I think oddsmakers have elevated it slightly with both teams likely tired and less likely to be focused on defense. I don't know if that's true. The Kings are terrible offensively on the road and worse on back-to-backs, and the Pistons would want to slow it down MORE if they're feeling sleepy. I actually lean Under, believe it or not. I know guys, that was the world's shortest write-up, so feel free to add to it with your own notes, but being that this card is immense, I figure, why waste time and energy on a game that I have almost no chance of legitimately picking a side? Check out that middle.
Magic @ Bulls - Orlando by 4 with a total of 193. This line strikes me as odd. I know the Bulls have come on strong, but given Chicago is the team here on the back-to-back, oddsmakers are trying to tell me that Orlando would be a TWO point favorite in Chicago without the Bulls playing last night? That seems way too simple. It's not like a Chicago win would surprise that many folks. The Bulls beat the Magic the last time Orlando came to town, winning outright as a 3.5-point underdog. I just wonder, though, if we're giving the public too much credit, and their short term memory is going to take over. The Bulls are just 4-8 ATS on back-to-back spots, so I'm not really sure why this line is seemingly begging us to take Orlando. The Magic have been winning games but failing to cover, and by setting this line nice and low, it indicates to me that oddsmakers think this one is going down to the wire. The match-ups are just a disaster for Chicago, especially with their team all banged up, and I hate to be mister square here, since I would love to take a home dog, but I lean Orlando. The total is pretty accurate, I feel, though I feel like Chicago is going to try to push the ball a little, and get into their offense before Dwight Howard can set his roots in the paint. Still, both teams pride themselves on defense, and they're going to want to flex some muscle - I lean Under.
Celtics @ Hornets - This line is OFF. I would assume this is the case because of Paul Pierce potentially returning, but time will tell. The true issue here is that Boston has been a mess lately. They've lost 3 straight ATS, and though they did win 3 straight games SU before the loss to Orlando on Sunday, Boston is just 1-9 ATS this year when following an upset loss as a favorite. I suppose we'll see if that holds up here. I prefer to back the Hornets on the road without Chris Paul, since they're getting that 6-point swing. And for the record, I wrote that sentence BEFORE looking up the following stat: the Hornets have covered their last 6 road games, but have failed to cover their last 6 home games. Conversely, the road is really the only I'm willing to back the Celtics for the same reason. They have found a way to win against the weaker teams, but covering the large home spreads has become almost impossible. I also feel that the loss the Hornets suffered to Orlando might carry over into this game. They played their butts off for almost every moment of that game, and just could not quite overcome Vince Carter's best game since 2006 and strong performances from Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis. It can be pretty frustrating for a team to lead the entire game, then get run off the floor late. I believe the Celtics are going to want to grab this game going into the All Star Break, and while I do believe the spread is going to favor Boston by 2-4 points, I actually believe they can cover it, since I just don't see the Hornets putting together another performance as strong as the ones in Charlotte and Orlando. I lean Boston, and I lean to the Under, since folks are going to see that colossal Hornets total from the last game, and we're going to get a few points of line value on the Under.
Bobcats @ Timberwolves - Charlotte by 2.5 with a total of 200. Timberwolves got spanked last night, there's no way around it. I tend to like fading teams off a loss that snaps a win streak, as I feel like maybe that crushing defeat in Philadelphia might derail the Wolves just a little, but at the same time, the Wolves are still the line value play. The Bobcats (1-5 ATS against the Northwest) are no longer an underappreciated team, and that makes them a tougher play. They squeezed out a SU win last night against Washington, but lost their 3rd of 4 against the spread. I'm just not sure Charlotte is a team we can trust right now, especially going into the All Star break; but on the flip side, I don't like the Wolves as a "bounceback" team. They're very young, looking forward to some time off, and coming off an ugly game in Philly. I don't like a side in this one, but I do like the Over. Minnesota is going nuts with the pace, and the Bobcats are going to be too tired and too focused on the week off to worry about stopping anyone. We saw last night how Minnesota got killed by the Sixers, but still managed to get into a running match. If they scored the ball, that game would have gone over by 25. At home, I think Minnesota hits those jumpers again, and I think this one ends with a final total of 203.
Lakers @ Jazz - This line is OFF. I hope Kobe plays. This is going to be a damn fine game if he does. Might be fun even if he doesn't, but you know those Jazz fans are ready to go nuts for a Lakers game. I'm not sure it's a great game to bet on, as both teams have won the home meeting this year, and the Lakers role-players might start to run out of steam, but it should be a great show. The Lakers have been impressive without their star, winning with very strong defensive efforts in Portland and then at home against the Spurs, but this is going to be a brand new kind of task. The Jazz had to play their butts off against the Clippers last night to get the cover, but this team has a rare and unique style of play and tired or not, they are a brutal match-up. They've now won 9 straight, and none of those wins by fewer than 7 points. I think the early value here is going to continue to be on the Lakers, at least until we hear about Kobe. Utah is in a tough spot, and while the home crowd will fuel them, they should be a tad tired, and I just wonder how the adrenaline is going to work for Utah. I have to believe they come out strong, as most teams do against the Lakers, but will they wane as the game goes on? Utah is a strong 6-2 ATS on back-to-backs, so I think the Jazz system should keep them right there for a win all night long. Still, because I believe the line will come out soft, I lean Lakers, who should be getting a couple points. I have no idea what the total is going to be. The Lakers have been playing such strong defense without Kobe, but will Utah's up-tempo style change this game around?
Blazers @ Suns - Phoenix by 8 with a total of 210.5. This one might be accurate, and feels like a huge mismatch. The Suns are storming right now, playing with confidence and playing with a sense of purpose on every possession. They are also playing on 4 days of rest, so those tired old legs of Grant Hill will be ready for a strong performance. On the other side, the Blazers have to travel a good distance for the second half of a back-to-back, and while Portland is 9-3 ATS in back-to-backs, this team looks decidedly tired right now, getting steamrolled by the Kobe-less Lakers, and then last night got severely outplayed by Oklahoma City in the 4th quarter. It seems like there's a bit of a book on how to guard this team with Roy out, and clubs are really forcing the Blazers to beat them with a ton of jumpshots. I just don't know if Portland can keep up for all 4 quarters with this lineup. Their defense isn't what it used to be with all the big men out, and they don't have a go-to guy on offense. I mean, I realize it's another square lean, but I just have to look at Phoenix here. The total here feels a little high, given Phoenix is actually playing some minor defense, so I lean Under. I know, Phoenix and Under, it almost seems like heresy, but hey, that's how it is.
Clippers @ Warriors - This line is OFF. I'm having trouble looking at the Clippers right now after Baron Davis ruined a cover for us last night, but hey, they're playing, so we need to break it down. Even if this game could be the ugliest on the card, and there are some ugly ones. I'm not really sure why someone would want to bet this game, though. The Clippers have been terrible on the road, and the Warriors have been terrible everywhere, clearly tiring as the huge minutes for their top 3-4 guys is starting to catch up with them. If anything, you're looking at a great opportunity to drop some money on another Stephen Curry prop bet, since he's the last man standing in injury-town. This is a revenge game for the Warriors from when the Clippers beat them senseless here in Oakland back in November, but the hapless Warriors are another of those teams where revenge isn't a real issue, not with only a few healthy bodies, and only 1 worth playing. You couldn't pay me to pick a side in this mess. I do think there should be some value on the Under, as the Warriors continue to tire late, and the Clippers are going to be suffering after blowing the game against the Jazz. I know often fatigue leads to bad defense, but for a team like the Clippers that operates in the post a lot and doesn't do much on defense anyway, I think they might suffer shooting the ball more than defending. I lean Under.
Boston (32-17, 19-29-1 ATS) at New Orleans (27-25, 25-27 ATS)
The Celtics will try to get back on the winning track when they visit New Orleans Arena for a matchup with the struggling Hornets.
Boston has been off since a 96-89 home loss to Orlando on Sunday, failing to cover as a three-point favorite, its third-straight non-cover. Rajon Rondo had 17 points, nine assists and eight rebounds, but no other Celtic managed more than 14 points. The loss snapped a three-game, straight-up winning streak (1-2 ATS) for Boston, which is 17-8 (13-12 ATS) on the highway this season.
New Orleans has dropped four of five overall (2-3 ATS), including Monday’s 123-117 loss in Orlando, though it cashed as a 9½-point underdog. The Hornets have lost four straight at home (SU and ATS), including Friday’s ugly 101-94 setback to the lowly Sixers as a 2½-point favorite. New Orleans, which is playing without injured point guard Chris Paul, has allowed the opposition to average 107 points on 51.9 percent shooting over the last five games.
Boston won the lone matchup this season with the Hornets on Nov. 1, prevailing 97-87 but coming up short as an 11-point home favorite. The Celtics have won four in a row (3-1 ATS) in this series and seven of the last 10 (6-4 ATS). The favorite is 5-1 ATS sin the last six matchups.
The Celtics are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games against Southwest Division teams and 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 road games against teams with a winning home record, but they are on ATS slides of 2-9-1 overall, 0-6-1 against Western Conference teams and 1-6-1 after a non-cover. New Orleans has failed to cover in any of its last six at home but it is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 at home against teams with winning road records and 15-5 ATS in its last 20 against winning teams.
Boston has stayed below the posted total in four of five overall and nine of 12 against teams with a winning record, but it is on “over” runs of 20-9 after a straight-up loss and 18-7-1 after getting two days off. The Hornets have stayed below the total in 45 of 67 home games against teams with winning road records, but they are on “over” streaks of 4-0 overall, 4-1 at home, 6-1 after getting a day off and 4-1 after a spread-cover.
In this series, the under has been the play in three straight and six of the last nine.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Portland (30-24, 28-25-1 ATS) at Phoenix (31-21, 28-24 ATS)
The Suns will try to make it six straight victories when they welcome the Trail Blazers to the US Airways Center.
Portland fell 89-77 at home Tuesday against Oklahoma City, failing to cash as a 1½-point home underdog, shooting just 40.3 percent from the floor. The Blazers are a mediocre 12-13 (15-10 ATS) on the highway this season, where they average just 95.5 ppg on 45.3 percent shooting.
The Suns returns home following a four-game SU and ATS sweep of Western Conference road trip, wrapping it up with Friday’s 114-102 win in Sacramento, cashing as a 2½-point chalk. All five starters reached double figures in scoring, with Amare Stoudemire leading the charge with 30 points and nine rebounds. Phoenix has reached triple digits in 11 straight games and 23 of its last 24. The Suns have averaged 111.8 points a game over the last five, shooting a stellar 50.5 percent from the floor.
The Blazers have won three straight in this series, including a 105-102 victory as a 1½-point favorite on Dec. 17 matchup in Portland. The home team has won each of the last six meetings (5-1 ATS) and the favorite is 18-7-1 ATS in the last 26 overall. Phoenix has cashed in 23 of the last 35 series matchups, including 12 of the last 17 in the desert.
Portland is on ATS runs of 13-3 when playing the second night of a back-to-back, 4-1 as a road ‘dog, 5-1 on the road and 5-1 as a road ‘dog of between five and 10½-points. The Suns have cashed in five straight against Western Conference teams and four of five on Wednesday, but they are on ATS slides of 2-5 at home and 2-10-1 after getting three or more days off.
The Blazers are on a plethora of “over” streaks, including 7-4 overall, 8-3 against Western Conference teams, 12-2 on the road against teams with a winning record, 5-0 as a road ‘dog and 7-1 on the second night of a back-to-back. Phoenix is on “over” tears of 28-11 on Wednesday and 12-5 against Western Conference teams, but the under is 5-2 in its last seven at home.
Finally, the “over” is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head between these squads and 7-3 in the last 10 played in Phoenix.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX and OVER
L.A. Lakers (40-13, 24-27-2 ATS) at Utah (32-18, 30-17-3 ATS)
The red-hot Jazz will try to make it 10 straight wins when they host the rival Lakers inside EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City.
Los Angeles has won seven of its last nine overall (5-3-1 ATS), including its last two without All-Star guard Kobe Bryant, who is listed as doubtful for tonight’s matchup because of an ankle injury. The Lakers crushed San Antonio 101-89 on Monday as 2½-point home favorites, getting 21 points and 19 rebounds from Pau Gasol and 16 points and 10 rebounds from Lamar Odom. L.A. is 15-9 on the road this season but just 10-13-1 at the betting window.
Utah made it nine straight wins with Tuesday’s 109-99 come-from-behind victory in Los Angeles against the Clippers, cashing as five-point road favorites as it got 34 points and 14 rebounds from Carlos Boozer. The Jazz have been lighting up the scoreboard lately, reaching triple digits in 11 straight contests, including averaging 109 points and 53.6 percent shooting in their last five heading into Tuesday’s game against the Clippers. Utah has won 10 straight home games (7-1-2 ATS) and gone 22-6 (18-8-2 ATS) in front of the Salt Lake City faithful this season.
The home team has won nine of the last 10 series matchups between these teams (7-3 ATS), including both games this season. The Jazz scored a 102-94 home win back on Dec. 12 as two-point favorites, just three days after losing 101-77 in Los Angeles as a 10½-point pup. Going back farther, the host has cashed in 17 of the last 25 series clashes.
The Lakers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six roadies, but otherwise they’re on pointspread slides of 1-5 against Northwest Division teams and 2-7-1 on the highway against teams with a winning home mark. It’s nothing but positive ATS runs for Utah, including 15-4-2 at home, 19-7-3 overall, 4-0-1 on the second night of a back-to-back, 33-16-3 at home against teams with winning road records and 4-0 on Wednesday.
Los Angeles is on a host of “under” runs, including 5-2 overall, 13-6 against Northwest Division teams, 4-0 on the road and 5-0 against teams with a winning record. On the flip side, the Jazz have topped the total in eight of 11 overall and five of six on the second night of a back-to-back, but they are on “under” runs of 5-0 against teams with a winning record and 4-2 against Pacific Division opponents. Also, the under has cashed in five straight Jazz-Lakers battles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH and UNDER
Trend Report - Wednesday
By Ed Meyer
Magic at Bulls – The League is 0-8 ATS (-11.1 ppg) since April 17, 2007 on the road when seeking revenge for a loss as a road favorite in which they had no rest. The Bulls are 10-0 ATS (10.4 ppg) since November 02, 1996 at home with no rest after a road win in which they shot at least 50% from the field.
Heat at Hawks – The Heat are 0-11 ATS (-9.7 ppg) since December 04, 2004 on the road with no rest after a win in which they allowed less than 40% from the field. The Heat are 0-10 ATS (-9.2 ppg) since February 09, 2006 after a double digit win in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers. The Hawks are 6-0 ATS (5.8 ppg) since January 14, 2009 as a favorite with at most one day of rest after a game on the road in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.
Celtics at Hornets – The Celtics are 8-0 ATS (7.1 ppg) since December 26, 2003 on the road with two or more days of rest off a loss in which they led by 10+ points. The Hornets are 9-0 ATS (4.6 ppg) since February 08, 2006 at home off a road loss in which they led at the end of the third quarter. The Hornets are 7-0 ATS (4.9 ppg) since February 03, 2003 at home with at most one day of rest off a loss as an away dog in which they led by 10+ points.
Lakers at Jazz – The Lakers are 7-0 ATS (9.8 ppg) since December 14, 2005 as a dog with at most one day of rest after a game in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers. The Jazz are 7-0-2 ATS (5.4 ppg) since December 08, 2001 as a home favorite after a double digit road win in which more than 75% of their baskets were assisted.
Bucks at Nets – The Bucks are 0-5 ATS (-7.7 ppg) since November 15, 2003 as a favorite after a home loss in which they had at least 20 offensive rebounds. The League is 0-8 ATS (-12.6 ppg) since February 23, 2009 as a home dog after a road loss in which they shot at least 50% from the field.
Kings at Pistons – The Kings are 0-7 ATS (-17.0 ppg) since December 12, 2006 with at most one day of rest off a win that broke at least a five-game losing streak.
76ers at Raptors – The 76ers are 0-10 ATS (-10.3 ppg) since October 31, 2003 as a dog after a double digit home win in which they had at least 12 steals. The 76ers are 0-10 ATS (-10.7 ppg) since March 20, 2003 as a road dog when they have won and covered their last three games.
Trailblazers at Suns – The Trailblazers are 8-0 ATS (11.3 ppg) since December 05, 2006 when they lost their last two games and both were at home. The Suns are 0-6 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since March 13, 2004 at home when seeking revenge for a loss as a dog in which they led by double digits.
Bobcats at Timberwolves – The Bobcats are 6-0 ATS (10.2 ppg) since January 09, 2008 with at most one day of rest off a win that broke at least a three-game losing streak. The Timberwolves are 0-10 ATS (-13.7 ppg) since February 19, 2003 with at most one day of rest after a road loss in which they allowed at least 55% from the field.
Clippers at Warriors – The Warriors are 10-0 ATS (11.7 ppg) since December 10, 2002 at home off a loss as a home dog in which they led at the end of the third quarter. The Warriors are 6-0 ATS (5.9 ppg) since January 28, 2005 at home with at most one day of rest after a double digit loss in which their DPA was at least plus 15 points.